Excess natural-cause mortality in US counties and its association with reported COVID-19 deaths

In the United States, estimates of excess deaths attributable to the COVID-19 pandemic have consistently surpassed reported COVID-19 death counts. Excess deaths reported to non-COVID-19 natural causes may represent unrecognized COVID-19 deaths, deaths caused by pandemic health care interruptions, and/or deaths from the pandemic's socioeconomic impacts. The geographic and temporal distribution of these deaths may help to evaluate which explanation is most plausible. We developed a Bayesian hierarchical model to produce monthly estimates of excess natural-cause mortality for US counties over the first 30 mo of the pandemic. From March 2020 through August 2022, 1,194,610 excess natural-cause deaths occurred nationally [90% PI (Posterior Interval): 1,046,000 to 1,340,204]. A total of 162,886 of these excess natural-cause deaths (90% PI: 14,276 to 308,480) were not reported to COVID-19. Overall, 15.8 excess deaths were reported to non-COVID-19 natural causes for every 100 reported COVID-19 deaths. This number was greater in nonmetropolitan counties (36.0 deaths), the West (Rocky Mountain states: 31.6 deaths; Pacific states: 25.5 deaths), and the South (East South Central states: 26.0 deaths; South Atlantic states: 25.0 deaths; West South Central states: 24.2 deaths). In contrast, reported COVID-19 death counts surpassed estimates of excess natural-cause deaths in metropolitan counties in the New England and Middle Atlantic states. Increases in reported COVID-19 deaths correlated temporally with increases in excess deaths reported to non-COVID-19 natural causes in the same and/or prior month. This suggests that many excess deaths reported to non-COVID-19 natural causes during the first 30 mo of the pandemic in the United States were unrecognized COVID-19 deaths.

Immigrant mortality advantage in the United States during the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic

OBJECTIVES

To investigate the mortality impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on US-born and foreign-born populations by race and Hispanic origin in the United States in 2020.

METHODS

Death records from the National Center for Health Statistics and population data from CDC WONDER were used to estimate (1) age-standardized all-cause and cause-specific mortality at ages 25+, 25-64, and 65+ in 2017-2019 and 2020 by nativity, race, Hispanic origin, and sex; (2) changes in mortality between these two periods; and (3) the cause-specific contributions to these changes.

RESULTS

Mortality increased in 2020 relative to 2017-2019 for all racial and Hispanic-origin groups. Adjusting for age, mortality increases were larger at ages 25+ among foreign-born males (390 deaths for 100,000 residents) and females (189) than among US-born males (223) and females (144). The large mortality rise among foreign-born Hispanic men (593) contributed to the narrowing of their mortality advantage relative to White men, from 426 to 134. An increase in mortality among both foreign-born and US-born Black males and females increased the Black-White mortality disparities by 318 for males and by 180 for females. Although COVID-19 mortality was the main driver of the increase among foreign-born residents, circulatory diseases and malignant neoplasms also contributed.

CONTRIBUTION

We show that the COVID-19 pandemic had a greater impact on foreign-born populations than on their US-born counterparts. These findings highlight the need to address the underlying inequalities and unique challenges faced by foreign-born populations.

COVID-19 and All-Cause Mortality by Race, Ethnicity, and Age Across Five Periods of the Pandemic in the United States

Racial/ethnic and age disparities in COVID-19 and all-cause mortality during 2020 are well documented, but less is known about their evolution over time. We examine changes in age-specific mortality across five pandemic periods in the United States from March 2020 to December 2022 among four racial/ethnic groups (non-Hispanic White, non-Hispanic Black, Hispanic, and non-Hispanic Asian) for ages 35+. We fit Gompertz models to all-cause and COVID-19 death rates by 5-year age groups and construct age-specific racial/ethnic mortality ratios across an Initial peak (Mar-Aug 2020), Winter peak (Nov 2020-Feb 2021), Delta peak (Aug-Oct 2021), Omicron peak (Nov 2021-Feb 2022), and Endemic period (Mar-Dec 2022). We then compare to all-cause patterns observed in 2019. The steep age gradients in COVID-19 mortality in the Initial and Winter peak shifted during the Delta peak, with substantial increases in mortality at working ages, before gradually returning to an older age pattern in the subsequent periods. We find a disproportionate COVID-19 mortality burden on racial and ethnic minority populations early in the pandemic, which led to an increase in all-cause mortality disparities and a temporary elimination of the Hispanic mortality advantage at certain age groups. Mortality disparities narrowed over time, with racial/ethnic all-cause inequalities during the Endemic period generally returning to pre-pandemic levels. Black and Hispanic populations, however, faced a younger age gradient in all-cause mortality in the Endemic period relative to 2019, with younger Hispanic and Black adults in a slightly disadvantageous position and older Black adults in a slightly advantageous position, relative to before the pandemic.

Monthly excess mortality across counties in the United States during the COVID-19 pandemic, March 2020 to February 2022

Excess mortality is the difference between expected and observed mortality in a given period and has emerged as a leading measure of the COVID-19 pandemic's mortality impact. Spatially and temporally granular estimates of excess mortality are needed to understand which areas have been most impacted by the pandemic, evaluate exacerbating factors, and inform response efforts. We estimated all-cause excess mortality for the United States from March 2020 through February 2022 by county and month using a Bayesian hierarchical model trained on data from 2015 to 2019. An estimated 1,179,024 excess deaths occurred during the first 2 years of the pandemic (first: 634,830; second: 544,194). Overall, excess mortality decreased in large metropolitan counties but increased in nonmetropolitan counties. Despite the initial concentration of mortality in large metropolitan Northeastern counties, nonmetropolitan Southern counties had the highest cumulative relative excess mortality by July 2021. These results highlight the need for investments in rural health as the pandemic's rural impact grows.

COVID-19 Mortality by Race and Ethnicity in US Metropolitan and Nonmetropolitan Areas, March 2020 to February 2022

Importance

Prior research has established that Hispanic and non-Hispanic Black residents in the US experienced substantially higher COVID-19 mortality rates in 2020 than non-Hispanic White residents owing to structural racism. In 2021, these disparities decreased.

Objective

To assess to what extent national decreases in racial and ethnic disparities in COVID-19 mortality between the initial pandemic wave and subsequent Omicron wave reflect reductions in mortality vs other factors, such as the pandemic's changing geography.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This cross-sectional study was conducted using data from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention for COVID-19 deaths from March 1, 2020, through February 28, 2022, among adults aged 25 years and older residing in the US. Deaths were examined by race and ethnicity across metropolitan and nonmetropolitan areas, and the national decrease in racial and ethnic disparities between initial and Omicron waves was decomposed. Data were analyzed from June 2021 through March 2023.

Exposures

Metropolitan vs nonmetropolitan areas and race and ethnicity.

Main Outcomes and Measures

Age-standardized death rates.

Results

There were death certificates for 977 018 US adults aged 25 years and older (mean [SD] age, 73.6 [14.6] years; 435 943 female [44.6%]; 156 948 Hispanic [16.1%], 140 513 non-Hispanic Black [14.4%], and 629 578 non-Hispanic White [64.4%]) that included a mention of COVID-19. The proportion of COVID-19 deaths among adults residing in nonmetropolitan areas increased from 5944 of 110 526 deaths (5.4%) during the initial wave to a peak of 40 360 of 172 515 deaths (23.4%) during the Delta wave; the proportion was 45 183 of 210 554 deaths (21.5%) during the Omicron wave. The national disparity in age-standardized COVID-19 death rates per 100 000 person-years for non-Hispanic Black compared with non-Hispanic White adults decreased from 339 to 45 deaths from the initial to Omicron wave, or by 293 deaths. After standardizing for age and racial and ethnic differences by metropolitan vs nonmetropolitan residence, increases in death rates among non-Hispanic White adults explained 120 deaths/100 000 person-years of the decrease (40.7%); 58 deaths/100 000 person-years in the decrease (19.6%) were explained by shifts in mortality to nonmetropolitan areas, where a disproportionate share of non-Hispanic White adults reside. The remaining 116 deaths/100 000 person-years in the decrease (39.6%) were explained by decreases in death rates in non-Hispanic Black adults.

Conclusions and Relevance

This study found that most of the national decrease in racial and ethnic disparities in COVID-19 mortality between the initial and Omicron waves was explained by increased mortality among non-Hispanic White adults and changes in the geographic spread of the pandemic. These findings suggest that despite media reports of a decline in disparities, there is a continued need to prioritize racial health equity in the pandemic response.

Differences Between Reported COVID-19 Deaths and Estimated Excess Deaths in Counties Across the United States, March 2020 to February 2022

Accurate and timely tracking of COVID-19 deaths is essential to a well-functioning public health surveillance system. The extent to which official COVID-19 death tallies have captured the true toll of the pandemic in the United States is unknown. In the current study, we develop a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate monthly excess mortality in each county over the first two years of the pandemic and compare these estimates to the number of deaths officially attributed to Covid-19 on death certificates. Overall, we estimated that 268,176 excess deaths were not reported as Covid-19 deaths during the first two years of the Covid-19 pandemic, which represented 23.7% of all excess deaths that occurred. Differences between excess deaths and reported COVID-19 deaths were substantial in both the first and second year of the pandemic. Excess deaths were less likely to be reported as COVID-19 deaths in the Mountain division, in the South, and in nonmetro counties. The number of excess deaths exceeded COVID-19 deaths in all Census divisions except for the New England and Middle Atlantic divisions where there were more COVID-19 deaths than excess deaths in large metro areas and medium or small metro areas. Increases in excess deaths not assigned to COVID-19 followed similar patterns over time to increases in reported COVID-19 deaths and typically preceded or occurred concurrently with increases in reported COVID-19 deaths. Estimates from this study can be used to inform targeting of resources to areas in which the true toll of the COVID-19 pandemic has been underestimated.

Enhancing the Utility of the Health and Retirement Study (HRS) to Identify Drivers of Rising Mortality Rates in the United States

A recent report from the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine (NASEM) highlights rising rates of working-age mortality in the United States, portending troubling population health trends for this group as they age. The Health and Retirement Study (HRS) is an invaluable resource for researchers studying health and aging dynamics among Americans ages 50 and above and has strong potential to be used by researchers to provide insights about the drivers of rising U.S. mortality rates. This paper assesses the strengths and limitations of HRS data for identifying drivers of rising mortality rates in the U.S. and provides recommendations to enhance the utility of the HRS in this regard. Among our many recommendations, we encourage the HRS to prioritize the following: link cause of death information to respondents; reduce the age of eligibility for inclusion in the sample; increase the rural sample size; enhance the existing HRS Contextual Data Resource by incorporating longitudinal measures of structural determinants of health; develop additional data linkages to capture residential settings and characteristics across the life course; and add measures that capture drug use, gun ownership, and social media use.

Monthly excess mortality across counties in the United States during the Covid-19 pandemic, March 2020 to February 2022

Excess mortality is the difference between expected and observed mortality in a given period and has emerged as a leading measure of the overall impact of the Covid-19 pandemic that is not biased by differences in testing or cause-of-death assignment. Spatially and temporally granular estimates of excess mortality are needed to understand which areas have been most impacted by the pandemic, evaluate exacerbating and mitigating factors, and inform response efforts, including allocating resources to affected communities. We estimated all-cause excess mortality for the United States from March 2020 through February 2022 by county and month using a Bayesian hierarchical model trained on data from 2015 to 2019. An estimated 1,159,580 excess deaths occurred during the first two years of the pandemic (first: 620,872; second: 538,708). Overall, excess mortality decreased in large metropolitan counties, but increased in nonmetro counties, between the first and second years of the pandemic. Despite the initial concentration of mortality in large metropolitan Northeast counties, beginning in February 2021, nonmetro South counties had the highest cumulative relative excess mortality. These results highlight the need for investments in rural health as the pandemic's disproportionate impact on rural areas continues to grow.

Excess all-cause mortality across counties in the United States, March 2020 to December 2021

Official Covid-19 death counts have underestimated the mortality impact of the Covid-19 pandemic in the United States. Excess mortality, which compares observed deaths to deaths expected in the absence of the pandemic, is a useful measure for assessing the total effect of the pandemic on mortality levels. In the present study, we produce county-level estimates of excess mortality for 3,127 counties between March 2020 and December 2021. We fit two hierarchical linear models to county-level death rates from January 2015 to December 2019 and predict expected deaths for each month during the pandemic. We compare observed deaths to these estimates to obtain excess deaths for each county-month. An estimated 936,911 excess deaths occurred during 2020 and 2021, of which 171,168 (18.3%) were not assigned to Covid-19 on death certificates as an underlying cause of death. Urban counties in the Far West, Great Lakes, Mideast, and New England experienced a substantial mortality disadvantage in 2020, whereas rural counties in these regions had higher mortality in 2021. In the Southeast, Southwest, Rocky Mountain, and Plains regions, there was a rural mortality disadvantage in 2020, which was exacerbated in 2021. The proportion of excess deaths assigned to Covid-19 was lower in 2020 (76.3%) than in 2021 (87.0%), suggesting that a larger fraction of excess deaths was assigned to Covid-19 later in the pandemic. However, in rural areas and in the Southeast and Southwest a large share of excess deaths was still not assigned to Covid-19 during 2021.

SIGNIFICANCE

Deaths during the Covid-19 pandemic have been primarily monitored through death certificates containing reference to Covid-19. This approach has missed more than 170,000 deaths related to the pandemic between 2020 and 2021. While the ascertainment of Covid-19 deaths improved during 2021, the full effects of the pandemic still remained obscured in some regions. County-level estimates of excess mortality are useful for studying geographic inequities in the mortality burden associated with the pandemic and identifying specific regions where the full mortality burden was significantly underreported (i.e. Southeast). They can also be used to inform resource allocation decisions at the federal and state levels and encourage uptake of preventive measures in communities with low vaccine uptake.

Evaluation of Age Patterns of COVID-19 Mortality by Race and Ethnicity From March 2020 to October 2021 in the US

This cross-sectional study examines age-specific COVID-19 mortality rates in the US from March 2020 to October 2021 by sex and race and ethnicity.

County-level estimates of excess mortality associated with COVID-19 in the United States

The COVID-19 pandemic in the U.S. has been largely monitored using death certificates containing reference to COVID-19. However, prior analyses reveal that a significant percentage of excess deaths associated with the pandemic were not directly assigned to COVID-19. In this study, we estimated a generalized linear model of expected mortality based on historical trends in deaths by county of residence between 2011 and 2019. We used the results of the model to generate estimates of excess mortality and excess deaths not assigned to COVID-19 in 2020 for 1470 county sets in the U.S. representing 3138 counties. Across the country, we estimated that 438,386 excess deaths occurred in 2020, among which 87.5% were assigned to COVID-19. Some regions (Mideast, Great Lakes, New England, and Far West) reported the most excess deaths in large central metros, whereas other regions (Southwest, Southeast, Plains, and Rocky Mountains) reported the highest excess mortality in nonmetro areas. The proportion assigned to COVID-19 was lowest in large central metro areas (79.3%). Regionally, the proportion of excess deaths assigned to COVID-19 was lowest in the Southeast (81.6%), Southwest (82.6%), Far West (83.7%), and Rocky Mountains (86.7%). Across the regions, the number of excess deaths exceeded the number of directly assigned COVID-19 deaths in most counties. The exception to this pattern occurred in New England, which reported more directly assigned COVID-19 deaths than excess deaths in metro and nonmetro areas. Many county sets had substantial numbers of excess deaths that were not accounted for in direct COVID-19 death counts. Estimates of excess mortality at the local level can inform the allocation of resources to areas most impacted by the pandemic and contribute to positive behavior feedback loops, such as increases in mask-wearing and vaccine uptake.

County-level estimates of excess mortality associated with COVID-19 in the United States

The COVID-19 pandemic in the U.S. has been largely monitored using death certificates containing reference to COVID-19. However, prior analyses reveal that a significant percentage of excess deaths associated with the pandemic were not directly assigned to COVID-19. In this study, we estimated a generalized linear model of expected mortality based on historical trends in deaths by county of residence between 2011 and 2019. We used the results of the model to generate estimates of excess mortality and excess deaths not assigned to COVID-19 in 2020 for 1470 county sets in the U.S. representing 3138 counties. Across the country, we estimated that 438,386 excess deaths occurred in 2020, among which 87.5% were assigned to COVID-19. Some regions (Mideast, Great Lakes, New England, and Far West) reported the most excess deaths in large central metros, whereas other regions (Southwest, Southeast, Plains, and Rocky Mountains) reported the highest excess mortality in nonmetro areas. The proportion assigned to COVID-19 was lowest in large central metro areas (79.3%). Regionally, the proportion of excess deaths assigned to COVID-19 was lowest in the Southeast (81.6%), Southwest (82.6%), Far West (83.7%), and Rocky Mountains (86.7%). Across the regions, the number of excess deaths exceeded the number of directly assigned COVID-19 deaths in most counties. The exception to this pattern occurred in New England, which reported more directly assigned COVID-19 deaths than excess deaths in metro and nonmetro areas. Many county sets had substantial numbers of excess deaths that were not accounted for in direct COVID-19 death counts. Estimates of excess mortality at the local level can inform the allocation of resources to areas most impacted by the pandemic and contribute to positive behavior feedback loops, such as increases in mask-wearing and vaccine uptake.

•

438,386 excess deaths occurred in 2020, among which 87.5% were assigned to COVID-19.

•

There was substantial heterogeneity in excess death rates across counties.

•

The mortality impact of the Covid-19 pandemic was effectively hidden in many counties.

•

The percent of excess deaths assigned to COVID-19 was lowest in the South and West.

•

New England uniquely reported more direct COVID-19 deaths than excess deaths.

The unequal burden of the Covid-19 pandemic: Capturing racial/ethnic disparities in US cause-specific mortality

Despite a growing body of literature focused on racial/ethnic disparities in Covid-19 mortality, few previous studies have examined the pandemic's impact on 2020 cause-specific mortality by race and ethnicity. This paper documents changes in mortality by underlying cause of death and race/ethnicity between 2019 and 2020. Using age-standardized death rates, we attribute changes for Black, Hispanic, and White populations to various underlying causes of death and show how these racial and ethnic patterns vary by age and sex. We find that although Covid-19 death rates in 2020 were highest in the Hispanic community, Black individuals faced the largest increase in all-cause mortality between 2019 and 2020. Exceptionally large increases in mortality from heart disease, diabetes, and external causes of death accounted for the adverse trend in all-cause mortality within the Black population. Within Black and White populations, percentage increases in all-cause mortality were similar for men and women, as well as for ages 25–64 and 65+. Among the Hispanic population, however, percentage increases in mortality were greatest for working-aged men. These findings reveal that the overall impact of the pandemic on racial/ethnic disparities in mortality was much larger than that captured by official Covid-19 death counts alone.

Association of Health Care Factors With Excess Deaths Not Assigned to COVID-19 in the US

This cross-sectional study assesses health care factors associated with excess deaths not assigned to COVID-19 in US counties in 2020.

COVID-19 and excess mortality in the United States: A county-level analysis

BACKGROUND

Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) excess deaths refer to increases in mortality over what would normally have been expected in the absence of the COVID-19 pandemic. Several prior studies have calculated excess deaths in the United States but were limited to the national or state level, precluding an examination of area-level variation in excess mortality and excess deaths not assigned to COVID-19. In this study, we take advantage of county-level variation in COVID-19 mortality to estimate excess deaths associated with the pandemic and examine how the extent of excess mortality not assigned to COVID-19 varies across subsets of counties defined by sociodemographic and health characteristics.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

In this ecological, cross-sectional study, we made use of provisional National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS) data on direct COVID-19 and all-cause mortality occurring in US counties from January 1 to December 31, 2020 and reported before March 12, 2021. We used data with a 10-week time lag between the final day that deaths occurred and the last day that deaths could be reported to improve the completeness of data. Our sample included 2,096 counties with 20 or more COVID-19 deaths. The total number of residents living in these counties was 319.1 million. On average, the counties were 18.7% Hispanic, 12.7% non-Hispanic Black, and 59.6% non-Hispanic White. A total of 15.9% of the population was older than 65 years. We first modeled the relationship between 2020 all-cause mortality and COVID-19 mortality across all counties and then produced fully stratified models to explore differences in this relationship among strata of sociodemographic and health factors. Overall, we found that for every 100 deaths assigned to COVID-19, 120 all-cause deaths occurred (95% CI, 116 to 124), implying that 17% (95% CI, 14% to 19%) of excess deaths were ascribed to causes of death other than COVID-19 itself. Our stratified models revealed that the percentage of excess deaths not assigned to COVID-19 was substantially higher among counties with lower median household incomes and less formal education, counties with poorer health and more diabetes, and counties in the South and West. Counties with more non-Hispanic Black residents, who were already at high risk of COVID-19 death based on direct counts, also reported higher percentages of excess deaths not assigned to COVID-19. Study limitations include the use of provisional data that may be incomplete and the lack of disaggregated data on county-level mortality by age, sex, race/ethnicity, and sociodemographic and health characteristics.

CONCLUSIONS

In this study, we found that direct COVID-19 death counts in the US in 2020 substantially underestimated total excess mortality attributable to COVID-19. Racial and socioeconomic inequities in COVID-19 mortality also increased when excess deaths not assigned to COVID-19 were considered. Our results highlight the importance of considering health equity in the policy response to the pandemic.

Assessing the Impact of the Covid-19 Pandemic on US Mortality: A County-Level Analysis

Background.

Covid-19 excess deaths refer to increases in mortality over what would normally have been expected in the absence of the Covid-19 pandemic. Several prior studies have calculated excess deaths in the United States but were limited to the national or state level, precluding an examination of area-level variation in excess mortality and excess deaths not assigned to Covid-19. In this study, we take advantage of county-level variation in Covid-19 mortality to estimate excess deaths associated with the pandemic and examine how the extent of excess mortality not assigned to Covid-19 varies across subsets of counties defined by sociodemographic and health characteristics.

Methods and Findings.

In this ecological, cross-sectional study, we made use of provisional National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS) data on direct Covid-19 and all-cause mortality occurring in U.S. counties from January 1 to December 31, 2020 and reported before March 12, 2021. We used data with a ten week time lag between the final day that deaths occurred and the last day that deaths could be reported to improve the completeness of data. Our sample included 2,096 counties with 20 or more Covid-19 deaths. The total number of residents living in these counties was 319.1 million. On average, the counties were 18.7% Hispanic, 12.7% non-Hispanic Black and 59.6% non-Hispanic White. 15.9% of the population was older than 65 years. We first modeled the relationship between 2020 all-cause mortality and Covid-19 mortality across all counties and then produced fully stratified models to explore differences in this relationship among strata of sociodemographic and health factors. Overall, we found that for every 100 deaths assigned to Covid-19, 120 all-cause deaths occurred (95% CI, 116 to 124), implying that 17% (95% CI, 14% to 19%) of excess deaths were ascribed to causes of death other than Covid-19 itself. Our stratified models revealed that the percentage of excess deaths not assigned to Covid-19 was substantially higher among counties with lower median household incomes and less formal education, counties with poorer health and more diabetes, and counties in the South and West. Counties with more non-Hispanic Black residents, who were already at high risk of Covid-19 death based on direct counts, also reported higher percentages of excess deaths not assigned to Covid-19. Study limitations include the use of provisional data that may be incomplete and the lack of disaggregated data on county-level mortality by age, sex, race/ethnicity, and sociodemographic and health characteristics.

Conclusions.

In this study, we found that direct Covid-19 death counts in the United States in 2020 substantially underestimated total excess mortality attributable to Covid-19. Racial and socioeconomic inequities in Covid-19 mortality also increased when excess deaths not assigned to Covid-19 were considered. Our results highlight the importance of considering health equity in the policy response to the pandemic.

The implications of changing education distributions for life expectancy gradients

Recent research has proposed that shifting education distributions across cohorts are influencing estimates of educational gradients in mortality. We use data from the United States and Finland covering four decades to explore this assertion. We base our analysis around our new finding: a negative logarithmic relationship between relative education and relative mortality. This relationship holds across multiple age groups, both sexes, two very different countries, and time periods spanning four decades. The inequality parameters from this model indicate increasing relative mortality differentials over time. We use these findings to develop a method that allows us to compute life expectancy for any given segment of the education distribution (e.g., education quintiles). We apply this method to Finnish and American data to compute life expectancy gradients that are adjusted for changes in the education distribution. In Finland, these distribution-adjusted education differentials in life expectancy between the top and bottom education quintiles have increased by two years for men, and remained stable for women between 1971 and 2010. Similar distribution-adjusted estimates for the U.S. suggest that educational disparities in life expectancy increased by 3.3 years for non-Hispanic white men and 3.0 years for non-Hispanic white women between the 1980s and 2000s. For men and women, respectively, these differentials between the top and bottom education quintiles are smaller than the differentials between the top and bottom education categories by 18% and 39% in the U.S. and by 39% and 100% in Finland. Had the relative inequality parameters of mortality governing the Finnish and U.S. populations remained constant at their earliest period values, the difference in life expectancy between the top and bottom education quintiles would – because of overall mortality reductions – have declined moderately. The findings suggest that educational expansion may bias estimates of trends in educational differences in life expectancy upwards.

Ecological factors associated with suicide mortality among non-Hispanic whites

BACKGROUND

In this paper, we examine the ecological factors associated with death rates from suicide in the United States in 1999 and 2017, a period when suicide mortality increased in the United States. We focus on Non-Hispanic Whites, who experienced the largest increase in suicide mortality. We ask whether variation in suicide mortality among commuting zones can be explained by measures of the social and economic environment and access to lethal means used to kill oneself in one's area of residence.

METHODS

We use vital statistics data on deaths and Census Bureau population estimates and define area of residence as one of 704 commuting zones. We estimate separate models for men and women at ages 20-64 and 65 and above. We measure economic environment by percent of the workforce in manufacturing and the unemployment rate and social environment by marital status, educational attainment, and religious participation. We use gun sellers and opioid prescriptions as measures of access to lethal means.

RESULTS

We find that the strongest contextual predictors of higher suicide mortality are lower rates of manufacturing employment and higher rates of opiate prescriptions for all age/sex groups, increased gun accessibility for men, and religious participation for older people.

CONCLUSIONS

Socioeconomic characteristic and access to lethal means explain much of the variation in suicide mortality rates across commuting zones, but do not account for the pervasive national-level increase in suicide mortality between 1999 and 2017.

The association between discrimination and health: findings on Russian, Somali and Kurdish origin populations in Finland

Background

The Second European Union Minorities and Discrimination Survey recently demonstrated widespread discrimination across EU countries, with high discrimination rates observed in countries like Finland. Discrimination is known to negatively impact health, but fewer studies have examined how different types of perceived discrimination are related to health.

Methods

This study examines (i) the prevalence of different types of perceived discrimination among Russian, Somali and Kurdish origin populations in Finland, and (ii) the association between different types of perceived discrimination (no experiences; subtle discrimination only; overt or subtle and overt discrimination) and health (self-rated health; limiting long-term illness (LLTI) or disability; mental health symptoms). Data are from the Finnish Migrant Health and Wellbeing Study (n = 1795). Subtle discrimination implies reporting being treated with less courtesy and/or treated with less respect than others, and overt discrimination being called names or insulted and/or threatened or harassed. The prevalence of discrimination and the associations between discrimination and health were calculated with predicted margins and logistic regression.

Results

Experiences of subtle discrimination were more common than overt discrimination in all the studied groups. Subtle discrimination was reported by 29% of Somali origin persons and 35% Russian and Kurdish origin persons. The prevalence of overt discrimination ranged between 22% and 24%. Experiences of discrimination increased the odds for poor self-reported health, LLTI and mental health symptoms, particularly among those reporting subtle discrimination only.

Conclusions

To promote the health of diverse populations, actions against racism and discrimination are highly needed, including initiatives that promote shared belonging.

Effect of Diabetes on Life Expectancy in the United States by Race and Ethnicity

We investigated the impact of diabetes on US life expectancy by sex and race/ethnicity using a prospective cohort study design. Cohorts were drawn from 1997-2009 waves of the National Health Interview Survey and linked to death records through December 31, 2011. We combined data on the prevalence of diabetes among decedents with estimates of the hazard ratios of individuals diagnosed with diabetes to calculate population attributable fractions (PAFs) by age, sex, and race/ethnicity at ages 30 and above. These estimates were then applied to deaths in the official US life table for 2010 to estimate effects of diabetes on life expectancy. Diabetes was responsible for a reduction of 0.83 years of life expectancy for men at age 30 and 0.89 years for 30-year-old women. The impact was greatest among Black women at 1.05 years. Estimates based on traditional demographic and actuarial methods using the frequency with which a disease appears as an underlying cause of death on death certificates produced a reduction in life expectancy at age 30 of only 0.33 years. We conclude that diabetes is substantially reducing US longevity and that its effect is seriously underestimated when using data on underlying causes of death.

Children's educational attainment, occupation, and income and their parents' mortality

Using data from Finland, this paper contributes to a small but growing body of research regarding adult children's education, occupation, and income and their parents' mortality at ages 50+ in 1970-2007. Higher levels of children's education are associated with 30-36 per cent lower parental mortality at ages 50-75, controlling for parents' education, occupation, and income. This association is fully mediated by children's occupation and income, except for cancer mortality. Having at least one child educated in healthcare is associated with 11-16 per cent lower all-cause mortality at ages 50-75, an association that is largely driven by mortality from cardiovascular diseases. Children's higher white-collar occupation and higher income is associated with 39-46 per cent lower mortality in the fully adjusted models. At ages 75+, these associations are much smaller overall and children's schooling remains more strongly associated with mortality than children's occupation or income.

The Contribution of Weight Status to Black-White Differences in Mortality

This article examines the contribution of weight status to black-white (B-W) differences in mortality at ages 40-79 using data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey. We measured body mass index (BMI) based on the highest BMI attained and contrasted the contribution of BMI to that of smoking and educational attainment. We estimated both additive and multiplicative models. In addition to estimating regression coefficients we asked what would happen to B-W differences in mortality if blacks had the BMI distribution of whites, the smoking prevalence of whites, or the educational distribution of whites. B-W differences in BMI account for close to 30 percent of the B-W difference in female mortality but only about 1 percent of the B-W difference in male mortality at ages 40-79. In contrast, smoking makes a much larger contribution to the B-W difference in male (17 percent) than female (6 percent) mortality. Differences in educational attainment in turn explain 19 to 25 percent of the B-W mortality difference among men and women, respectively. Our results underscore the importance of two key risk factors as well as educational attainment in generating B-W differences in mortality.

Forced migration in childhood: are there long-term health effects?

Studies on the health of migrants have increased considerably in number in recent years, but little is still known about the long-term health effects associated with forced migration, and particularly for people who were forced to migrate as children. Data shortcomings together with the methodological challenges of studying migrant populations limit the ability to disentangle the roles of various factors that influence migrant health outcomes. Finland provides an unusual opportunity to study long-term health consequences associated with forced migration. During World War II, twelve per cent of the Finnish population was forced to leave the region nowadays referred to as Ceded Karelia. After the war, these Karelians could not return home because the area was relinquished to the Soviet Union. Using high quality, linked register-based data for the period 1988–2012, we investigate whether this forced migration had long-term health consequences for those who were forced to migrate as children. Comparison groups are non-displaced persons born on the adjacent side of the new border, and people born elsewhere in Finland. Health at ages 43–65 years is measured by receipt of sickness benefit, which is an indicator of short-term illness, and receipt of disability pension, which reflects long-term illness or permanent disability. All-cause and cause-specific mortality is analysed at ages 43–84 years. We find no support for the hypothesis that the traumatic event of being forced to migrate during childhood has long-term negative health consequences. The forced child migrants have lower odds for receipt of sickness benefit, and women also have lower odds for receipt of disability pension. The mortality results are largely driven by patterns specific for eastern-born populations of Finland. A likely reason behind the absence of negative health consequences is that these migrants seem to have integrated well into post-war Finnish society.

•

Analyse long-term health effects associated with forced migration in childhood.

•

A unique event that forced 12 percent of Finnish population to relocate during WWII.

•

Circumvent common methodological challenges of studying migrant populations.

•

Register-based data to analyse health and mortality from main causes in 1988–2012.

•

Absence of health malicious effect likely due to successful integration.

The Survival of Spouses Marrying Into Longevity-Enriched Families

BACKGROUND

Studies of longevity-enriched families are an important tool to gain insight into the mechanisms of exceptionally long and healthy lives. In the Long Life Family Study, the spouses of the members of the longevity-enriched families are often used as a control group. These spouses could be expected to have better health than the background population due to shared family environment with the longevity-enriched family members and due to assortative mating.

METHODS

A Danish cohort study of 5,363 offspring of long-lived siblings, born 1917-1982, and 4,498 "first spouses" of these offspring. For each offspring and spouse, 10 controls were drawn from a 5% random sample of the Danish population matched on birth year and sex. Mortality was assessed for ages 20-69 years during 1968-2013 based on prospectively collected registry data.

RESULTS

During the 45-year follow-up period, 437 offspring deaths and 502 offspring spouse deaths were observed. Compared with the background population, the hazard ratio for male offspring was 0.44 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.38-0.50) and for female offspring it was 0.57 (95% CI: 0.49-0.66). For male spouses, the hazard ratio was 0.66 (95% CI: 0.59-0.74), whereas for female spouses it was 0.64 (95% CI: 0.54-0.76). Sensitivity analyses in restricted samples gave similar results.

CONCLUSION

The mortality for ages 20-69 years of spouses marrying into longevity-enriched families is substantially lower than the mortality in the background population, although long-lived siblings participation bias may have contributed to the difference. This finding has implications for the use of spouses as controls in healthy aging and longevity studies, as environmental and/or genetic overmatching may occur.

Life Expectancy Among U.S.-born and Foreign-born Older Adults in the United States: Estimates From Linked Social Security and Medicare Data

In recent decades, the geographic origins of America's foreign-born population have become increasingly diverse. The sending countries of the U.S. foreign-born vary substantially in levels of health and economic development, and immigrants have arrived with distinct distributions of socioeconomic status, visa type, year of immigration, and age at immigration. We use high-quality linked Social Security and Medicare records to estimate life tables for the older U.S. population over the full range of birth regions. In 2000-2009, the foreign-born had a 2.4-year advantage in life expectancy at age 65 relative to the U.S.-born, with Asian-born subgroups displaying exceptionally high longevity. Foreign-born individuals who migrated more recently had lower mortality compared with those who migrated earlier. Nonetheless, we also find remarkable similarities in life expectancy among many foreign-born subgroups that were born in very different geographic and socioeconomic contexts (e.g., Central America, western/eastern Europe, and Africa).

Preterm birth among the Hmong, other Asian subgroups and non-Hispanic whites in California

BACKGROUND

We investigated very preterm (VPTB) and preterm birth (PTB) risk among Hmong women relative to non-Hispanic whites and other Asian subgroups. We also examined the maternal education health gradient across subgroups.

METHODS

California birth record data (2002-2004) were used to analyze 568,652 singleton births to white and Asian women. Pearson Chi-square and logistic regression were used to assess variation in maternal characteristics and VPTB/PTB risk by subgroup.

RESULTS

White, Chinese, Japanese, Korean, Asian Indian, and Vietnamese women had 36-59% lower odds of VPTB and 30-56% lower odds of PTB than Hmong women. Controls for covariates did not substantially diminish these disparities. Cambodian, Filipino and Lao/Thai women's odds of VPTB were similar to that of Hmong women. But they had higher adjusted odds of PTB compared to the Hmong. There was heterogeneity in the educational gradient of PTB, with significant differences between the least and most educated women among whites, Chinese, Japanese, Asian Indians, Cambodians, and Laoians/Thais. Maternal education was not associated with PTB for Hmong, Vietnamese and Korean women, however.

CONCLUSIONS

Studies of Hmong infant health from the 1980s, the decade immediately following the group's mass migration to the US, found no significant differences in adverse birth outcomes between Hmong and white women. By the early 2000s, however, the disparities in VPTB and PTB between Hmong and white women, as well as between Hmong and other Asian women had become substantial. Moreover, despite gains in post-secondary education among childbearing-age Hmong women, the returns to education for the Hmong are negligible. Higher educational attainment does not confer the same health benefits for Hmong women as it does for whites and other Asian subgroups.

Obesity Among U.S.- and Foreign-Born Blacks by Region of Birth

INTRODUCTION

Large, recent migration streams from the non-Hispanic Caribbean islands and Africa have increased the share of U.S. blacks born outside of the U.S. Little is known about health patterns in these foreign-born populations. The purpose of this study is to compare obesity levels among self-identified U.S. blacks across birth regions and examine potential explanations for subgroup differences.

METHODS

Data were from the 2000-2013 National Health Interview Surveys. Three birthplace subgroups were examined: individuals born in the U.S., Caribbean/South America, and Africa, aged 25-59 years. Data were analyzed in 2013-2014.

RESULTS

Compared to U.S.-born participants, foreign-born participants had significantly lower obesity (BMI ≥30) odds. The AORs were 0.51 (Caribbean/South American-born, 95% CI=0.44, 0.58) and 0.41 (African-born, 95% CI=0.34, 0.50) with reference to U.S.-born individuals. Education, income, and cigarette smoking did not explain the favorable weight pattern of the foreign born. Among the foreign born, those residing in the U.S. for ≥15 years had 51% (95% CI=10%, 108%) higher obesity odds compared with those residing for <5 years. No statistically significant differences in obesity odds between those born in the Caribbean/South America and Africa were detected.

CONCLUSION

Foreign-born blacks generally had lower obesity levels compared to their U.S.-born counterparts, which was not explained by SES or smoking behaviors. Despite this advantage, obesity prevalence among foreign-born black women was around 30%, suggesting that obesity poses a significant health risk this population.

Are older adults living in more equal counties healthier than older adults living in more unequal counties? A propensity score matching approach

We assessed the potential contextual effect of income inequality on health by: 1) comparing individuals with similar socioeconomic status (SES) but who reside in counties with different levels of income inequality; and 2) examining whether the potential effect of county-level income inequality on health varies across SES groups. We used the Health and Retirement Study, a nationally representative study of Americans over the age of 50. Using propensity score matching, we selected SES-comparable individuals living in high-income inequality counties and in low-income inequality counties. We examined differences in self-rated overall health outcomes and in other specific physical/mental health outcomes between the two groups using logistic regression (n = 34,994) and imposing different sample restrictions based on residential duration in the area. We then used logistic regression with interactions to assess whether, and if so how, health outcomes differed among participants of different SES groups defined by wealth, income, and education. In bivariate analyses of the unmatched full sample, adults living in high-income inequality counties have worse health outcomes for most health measures. After propensity score matching, adults in high-income inequality counties had worse self-rated health status (AOR = 1.12; 95% CI 1.04-1.19) and were more likely to report diagnosed psychiatric problems (AOR = 1.08; 95% CI 0.99-1.19) than their matched counterparts in low-income inequality counties. These associations were stronger with longer-term residents in the area. Adverse health outcomes associated with living in high-income inequality counties were significant particularly for individuals in the 30(th) or greater percentiles of income/wealth distribution and those without a college education. In summary, after using more precise matching methods to compare individuals with similar characteristics and addressing measurement error by excluding more recently arrived county residents, adults living in high-income inequality counties had worse reported overall physical and mental health than adults living in low-income inequality counties.

Health among Black children by maternal and child nativity

OBJECTIVES

We examined 5 health outcomes among Black children born to US-born and foreign-born mothers and whether differences by mother's region of birth could be explained by maternal duration of US residence, child's place of birth, and familial sociodemographic characteristics.

METHODS

Data were from the 2000-2011 National Health Interview Surveys. We examined 3 groups of children, based on mother's region of birth: US origin, African origin, and Latin American or Caribbean origin. We estimated multivariate regression models.

RESULTS

Children of foreign-born mothers were healthier across all 5 outcomes than were children of US-born mothers. Among children of foreign-born mothers, US-born children performed worse on all health outcomes than children born abroad. African-origin children had the most favorable health profile. Longer duration of US residence among foreign-born mothers was associated with poorer child health. Maternal educational attainment and other sociodemographic characteristics did little to explain these differences.

CONCLUSIONS

Further studies are needed to understand the role of selective migration and the behavioral, cultural, socioeconomic, and contextual origins of the health advantage of Black children of foreign-born mothers.

Variation in birth outcomes by mother's country of birth among non-Hispanic black women in the United States

Rates of prematurity (PTB) and small-for-gestational age (SGA) were compared between US-born and foreign-born non-Hispanic black women. Comparisons were also made between Sub-Saharan African-born and Caribbean-born black women and by maternal country of birth within the two regions. Comparisons were adjusted for sociodemographic, health behavioral and medical risk factors available on the birth record. Birth record data (2008) from all states (n = 27) where mother's country of birth was recorded were used. These data comprised 58 % of all singleton births to non-Hispanic black women in that year. Pearson Chi square and logistic regression were used to investigate variation in the rates of PTB and SGA by maternal nativity. Foreign-born non-Hispanic black women had significantly lower rates of PTB (OR 0.727; CI 0. 726, 0.727) and SGA (OR 0.742; CI 0.739-0.745) compared to US-born non-Hispanic black women in a fully adjusted model. Sub-Saharan African-born black women compared to Caribbean-born black women had significantly lower rates of PTB and SGA. Within each region, the rates of PTB and SGA varied by mother's country of birth. These differences could not be explained by adjustment for known risk factors obtained from vital records. Considerable heterogeneity in rates of PTB and SGA among non-Hispanic black women in the US by maternal nativity was documented and remained unexplained after adjustment for known risk factors.

The association between advanced maternal and paternal ages and increased adult mortality is explained by early parental loss

The association between advanced maternal and paternal ages at birth and increased mortality among adult offspring is often attributed to parental reproductive aging, e.g., declining oocyte or sperm quality. Less attention has been paid to alternative mechanisms, including parental socio-demographic characteristics or the timing of parental death. Moreover, it is not known if the parental age-adult mortality association is mediated by socioeconomic attainment of the children, or if it varies over the lifecourse of the adult children. We used register-based data drawn from the Finnish 1950 census (sample size 89,737; mortality follow-up 1971-2008) and discrete-time survival regression with logit link to analyze these alternative mechanisms in the parental age-offspring mortality association when the children were aged 35-49 and 50-72. Consistent with prior literature, we found that adult children of older parents had increased mortality relative to adults whose parents were aged 25-29 at the time of birth. For example, maternal and paternal ages 40-49 were associated with mortality odds ratios (ORs) of 1.31 (p<.001) and 1.22 (p<.01), respectively, for offspring mortality at ages 35-49. At ages 50-72 advanced parental age also predicted higher mortality, though not as strongly. Adjustment for parental socio-demographic characteristics (education, occupation, family size, household crowding, language) weakened the associations only slightly. Adjustment for parental survival, measured by whether the parents were alive when the child reached age 35, reduced the advanced parental age coefficients substantially and to statistically insignificant levels. These results indicate that the mechanism behind the advanced parental age-adult offspring mortality association is mainly social, reflecting early parental loss and parental characteristics, rather than physiological mechanisms reflecting reproductive aging.

Anatomy of a Municipal Triumph: New York City's Upsurge in Life Expectancy

Over the period 1990-2010, the increase in life expectancy for males in New York City was 6.0 years greater than for males in the United States. The female relative gain was 3.9 years. Male relative gains were larger because of extremely rapid reductions in mortality from HIV/AIDS and homicide, declines that reflect effective municipal policies and programs. Declines in drug- and alcohol-related deaths also played a significant role in New York City's advance, but every major cause of death contributed to its relative improvement. By 2010, New York City had a life expectancy that was 1.9 years greater than that of the US. This difference is attributable to the high representation of immigrants in New York's population. Immigrants to New York City, and to the United States, have life expectancies that are among the highest in the world. The fact that 38 percent of New York's population consists of immigrants, compared to only 14 percent in the United States, accounts for New York's exceptional standing in life expectancy in 2010. In fact, US-born New Yorkers have a life expectancy below that of the United States itself.

The Contribution of Health Care and Other Interventions to Black-White Disparities in Life Expectancy, 1980-2007

Black-white mortality disparities remain sizable in the United States. In this study, we use the concept of avoidable/amenable mortality to estimate cause-of-death contributions to the difference in life expectancy between whites and blacks by gender in the United States in 1980, 1993, and 2007. We begin with a review of the concept of "avoidable mortality" and results of prior studies using this cause-of-death classification. We then present the results of our empirical analyses. We classified causes of death as amenable to medical care, sensitive to public health policies and health behaviors, ischemic heart disease, suicide, HIV/AIDS, and all other causes combined. We used vital statistics data on deaths and Census Bureau population estimates and standard demographic decomposition techniques. In 2007, causes of death amenable to medical care continued to account for close to 2 years of the racial difference in life expectancy among men (2.08) and women (1.85). Causes amenable to public health interventions made a larger contribution to the racial difference in life expectancy among men (1.17 years) than women (0.08 years). The contribution of HIV/AIDS substantially widened the racial difference among both men (1.08 years) and women (0.42 years) in 1993, but its contribution declined over time. Despite progress observed over the time period studied, a substantial portion of black-white disparities in mortality could be reduced given more equitable access to medical care and health interventions.

Socioeconomic status across the life course and all-cause and cause-specific mortality in Finland

We used high quality register based data to study the relationship between childhood and adult socio-demographic characteristics and all-cause and cause-specific mortality at ages 35-72 in Finland among cohorts born in 1936-1950. The analyses were based on a 10% sample of households drawn from the 1950 Finnish Census of Population with the follow-up of household members in subsequent censuses and death records beginning from the end of 1970 through the end of 2007. The strengths of these data come from the fact that neither childhood nor adult characteristics are self reported and thus are not subject to recall bias, misreporting and no loss to follow-up after age 35. In addition, the study population includes several families with at least two children enabling us to control for unobserved family characteristics. We documented significant associations between early life social and family conditions on all-cause mortality and cause-specific mortality, with protective effects of higher childhood socio-demographic characteristics varying between 10% and 30%. These associations were mostly mediated through adult educational attainment and occupation, suggesting that the indirect effects of childhood conditions were more important than their direct effects. We further found that adult socioeconomic status was a significant predictor of mortality. The associations between adult characteristics and mortality were robust to controls for observed and unobserved childhood characteristics. The results imply that long-term adverse health consequences of disadvantaged early life social circumstances may be mitigated by investments in educational and employment opportunities in early adulthood.

Exploring the health consequences of majority-minority neighborhoods: minority diversity and birthweight among native-born and foreign-born blacks

We examined the association between neighborhood minority diversity and infant birthweight among non-Hispanic US-born black women and foreign-born black women from Sub-Saharan Africa and the non-Spanish speaking Caribbean using 2002-2006 vital statistics birth record data from the state of New Jersey (n = 73,907). We used a standardized entropy score to measure the degree of minority diversity (i.e., non-white multiethnic racial heterogeneity) for each census tract where women lived. We distinguished between four levels of minority diversity, with the highest level representing majority-minority neighborhoods. We estimated mean birthweight for singleton births over this 5-year period using linear regression with robust standard errors to correct for clustering of mothers within census tracts. We found significant differences in mean birthweight by mother's country of origin such that infants of US-born black mothers weighed significantly less than the infants of African and Caribbean immigrants (3130 g vs. 3299 g and 3212 g; p < 0.001). Adjustments for neighborhood deprivation, residential instability, individual-level sociodemographics, maternal health behaviors and conditions, and gestational age did not reduce these origin differences. Minority diversity had a protective effect on black infant health. Women living in low and moderately diverse tracts as well as those in majority-minority neighborhoods had heavier babies (β = 26.5, 29.8 and 61.2, respectively, p < 0.001) on average than women in the least diverse tracts. The results for majority-minority neighborhoods were robust when we controlled for neighborhood- and individual-level covariates.

Age validation in the long life family study through a linkage to early-life census records

OBJECTIVES

Studies of health and longevity require accurate age reporting. Age misreporting among older adults in the United States is common.

METHODS

Participants in the Long Life Family Study (LLFS) were matched to early-life census records. Age recorded in the census was used to evaluate age reporting in the LLFS. The study population was 99% non-Hispanic white.

RESULTS

About 88% of the participants were matched to 1910, 1920, or 1930 U.S. censuses. Match success depended on the participant's education, place of birth, and the number of censuses available to be searched. Age at the time of the interview based on the reported date of birth and early-life census age were consistent for about 89% of the participants, and age consistency within 1 year was found for about 99% of the participants.

DISCUSSION

It is possible to match a high fraction of older study participants to their early-life census records when detailed information is available on participants' family of origin. Such record linkage can provide an important source of information for evaluating age reporting among the oldest old participants. Our results are consistent with recent studies suggesting that age reporting among older whites in the United States appears to be quite good.

The contribution of smoking to black-white differences in U.S. mortality

Smoking has significantly impacted American mortality and remains a major cause of morbidity and mortality. No previous study has systematically examined the contribution of smoking-attributable deaths to mortality trends among blacks or to black-white mortality differences at older ages over time in the United States. In this article, we employ multiple methods and data sources to provide a comprehensive assessment of this contribution. We find that smoking has contributed to the black-white gap in life expectancy at age 50 for males, accounting for 20 % to 48 % of the gap between 1980 and 2005, but not for females. The fraction of deaths attributable to smoking at ages above 50 is greater for black males than for white males; and among men, current smoking status explains about 20 % of the black excess relative risk in all-cause mortality at ages above 50 without adjustment for socioeconomic characteristics. These findings advance our understanding of the contribution of smoking to contemporary mortality trends and differences and reinforce the need for interventions that better address the needs of all groups.

The changing contribution of smoking to educational differences in life expectancy: indirect estimates for Finnish men and women from 1971 to 2010

BACKGROUND

We estimated the contribution of smoking to educational differences in mortality and life expectancy between 1971 and 2010 in Finland.

METHODS

Eight prospective datasets with baseline in 1970, 1975, 1980, 1985, 1990, 1995, 2000 and 2005 and each linked to a 5-year mortality follow-up were used. We calculated life expectancy at age 50 years with and without smoking-attributable mortality by education and gender. Estimates of smoking-attributable mortality were based on an indirect method that used lung cancer mortality as a proxy for the impact of smoking on mortality from all other causes.

RESULTS

Smoking-attributable deaths constituted about 27% of all male deaths above age 50 years in the early 1970s and 17% in the period 2006-2010; these figures were 1% and 4% among women, respectively. The life expectancy differential between men with basic versus high education increased from 3.4 to 4.7 years between 1971-1975 and 2006-2010. In the absence of smoking, these differences would have been 1.5 and 3.4 years, 1.9 years (55%) and 1.3 years (29%) less than those observed. Among women, educational differentials in life expectancy between the most and least educated increased from 2.5 to 3.0 years. This widening was nearly entirely accounted for by the increasing impact of smoking. Among women the contribution of smoking to educational differences had increased from being negligible in 1971-1975 to 16% in 2006-2010.

CONCLUSIONS

Among men, the increase in educational differences in mortality in the past decades was driven by factors other than smoking. However, smoking continues to have a major influence on educational differences in mortality among men and its contribution is increasing among women.

Migrant selection and the health of U.S. immigrants from the former Soviet Union

Few prior studies have investigated the health of U.S. immigrants from the former Soviet Union (FSU). Utilizing data from the 2000 U.S. census and the 2000-2007 National Health Interview Survey (NIHS), we compare levels of disability of FSU immigrants with U.S.-born whites (ages 50-84). Our findings suggest an "epidemiologic paradox" in that FSU immigrants possess higher levels of education compared with U.S.-born whites, but report considerably higher disability with and without adjustment for education. Nonetheless, FSU immigrants report lower levels of smoking and heavy alcohol use compared with U.S.-born whites. We further investigate disability by period of arrival among FSU immigrants. Changes in Soviet emigration policies conceivably altered the level of health selectivity among émigrés. We find evidence that FSU immigrants who emigrated during a period when a permission to emigrate was hard to obtain (1970-1986) displayed less disability compared with those who emigrated when these restrictions were less stringent (1987-2000). Finally, we compare disability among Russian-born U.S. immigrants with that of those residing in Russia as a direct test of health selectivity. We find that Russian immigrants report lower levels of disability compared with Russians in Russia, suggesting that they are positively selected for health despite their poor health relative to U.S.-born whites.

Region of Birth and Disability Among Recent U.S. Immigrants: Evidence from the 2000 Census

This study aimed to test the "healthy immigrant" hypothesis and assess health heterogeneity among newly arrived working-age immigrants (18-64 years) from various regions of origin. Using the 5% sample of the 2000 U.S. Census (PUMS), we found that, compared with their native-born counterparts, immigrants from all regions of the world were less likely to report mental disability and physical disability. Immigrants from selected regions of origin were, however, more likely to report work disability. Significant heterogeneity in disabilities exists among immigrants: Those from Eastern Europe and Southeast Asia reported the highest risk of mental and physical disability, and those from East Asia reported the lowest risk of physical disability. Furthermore, Mexican immigrants reported the lowest risk of mental disability, and Canadian immigrants reported the lowest risk of work disability. Socioeconomic status and English proficiency partially explained these differences. The health advantage of immigrants decreased with longer U.S. residence.

Do gender, disability, and morbidity affect aging rate in the LLFS? Application of indices of cumulative deficits

We used an approach of cumulative deficits to evaluate the rate of aging in 4954 participants of the Long-Life Family Study (LLFS) recruited in the U.S. (Boston, New York, and Pittsburgh) and Denmark. We used an array of 85 health-related deficits covering major health dimensions including depression, cognition, morbidity, physical performance, and disability to construct several deficit indices (DIs) with overlapping and complementary sets of deficits to test robustness of the estimates. Our study shows that the DIs robustly characterize accelerated rates of aging irrespective of specific of deficits. When a wider spectrum of health dimensions is considered these rates are better approximated by quadratic law. Exponential rates are more characteristic for more severe health dimensions. The aging rates are the same for males and females. Individuals who contracted major diseases and those who were free of them exhibited the same aging rates as characterized by the DI constructed using mild deficits. Unlike health, disability can qualitatively alter the aging patterns of the LLFS participants. We report on systemic differences in health among the LLFS centenarians residing in New York and Boston. This study highlights importance of aggregated approaches to better understand systemic mechanisms of health deterioration in long-living individuals.

Prenatal development in rural South Africa: relationship between birth weight and access to fathers and grandparents

Birth weight is an indicator of prenatal development associated with health in infancy and childhood, and may be affected by the family environment experienced by the mother during pregnancy. Using data from KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa, we explore the importance of the mother's access to the father and grandparents of the child during pregnancy. Controlling for household socio-economic indicators and maternal characteristics, the survival and residence of the biological father with the mother are positively associated with birth weight. The type of relationship seems to matter: married women have the heaviest newborns, but co-residence with a non-marital partner is also associated with higher birth weight. Access to the maternal grandmother may also be important: women whose mothers are alive have heavier newborns, but no additional benefit is observed from residing together. Co-residence with any grandparent is not associated with birth weight after controlling for the mother's partnership.

Do early-life conditions predict functional health status in adulthood? The case of Mexico

Relatively few researchers have investigated early antecedents of adult functional limitations in developing countries. In this study, we assessed associations between childhood conditions and adult lower-body functional limitations (LBFL) as well as the potential mediating role of adult socioeconomic status, smoking, body mass index, and chronic diseases or symptoms. Based on data from the Mexican Health and Aging Study (MHAS) of individuals born prior to 1951 and contacted in 2001 and 2003, we found that childhood nutritional deprivation, serious health problems, and family background predict adult LBFL in Mexico. Adjustment for the potential mediators in adulthood attenuates these associations only to a modest degree.

Recruitment and retention of women in a large randomized control trial to reduce repeat preterm births: the Philadelphia Collaborative Preterm Prevention Project

Background

Recruitment and retention of patients for randomized control trial (RCT) studies can provide formidable challenges, particularly with minority and underserved populations. Data are reported for the Philadelphia Collaborative Preterm Prevention Project (PCPPP), a large RCT targeting risk factors for repeat preterm births among women who previously delivered premature (< 35 weeks gestation) infants.

Methods

Design of the PCPPP incorporated strategies to maximize recruitment and retention. These included an advanced database system tracking follow-up status and assessment completion rates; cultural sensitivity training for staff; communication to the community and eligible women of the benefits of participation; financial incentives; assistance with transportation and supervised childcare services; and reminder calls for convenient, flexibly scheduled appointments. Analyses reported here: 1) compare recruitment projections to actual enrollment 2) explore recruitment bias; 3) validate the randomization process 4) document the extent to which contact was maintained and complete assessments achieved 5) determine if follow-up was conditioned upon socio-economic status, race/ethnicity, or other factors.

Results

Of eligible women approached, 1,126 (77.7%) agreed to participate fully. Of the 324 not agreeing, 118 (36.4%) completed a short survey. Consenting women were disproportionately from minority and low SES backgrounds: 71.5% consenting were African American, versus 38.8% not consenting. Consenting women were also more likely to report homelessness during their lifetime (14.6% vs. 0.87%) and to be unmarried at the time of delivery (81.6% versus 47.9%). First one-month postpartum assessment was completed for 83.5% (n = 472) of the intervention group (n = 565) and 76% (426) of the control group. Higher assessment completion rates were observed for the intervention group throughout the follow-up. Second, third, fourth and fifth postpartum assessments were 67.6% vs. 57.5%, 60.0% vs. 48.9%, 54.2% vs. 46.3% and 47.3% vs. 40.8%, for the intervention and control group women, respectively. There were no differences in follow-up rates according to race/ethnicity, SES or other factors. Greater retention of the intervention group may reflect the highly-valued nature of the medical and behavior services constituting the intervention arms of the Project.

Conclusion

Findings challenge beliefs that low income and minority women are averse to enrolling and continuing in clinical trials or community studies.

Variations in health and health behaviors by nativity among pregnant Black women in Philadelphia

OBJECTIVES

We compared health behaviors and health outcomes among US-born, African-born, and Caribbean-born pregnant Black women and examined whether sociodemographic and psychosocial characteristics explained differences among these population subgroups.

METHODS

We analyzed data from a prospective cohort study conducted in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, with a series of nested logistic regression models predicting tobacco, alcohol, and marijuana use and measures of physical and mental health.

RESULTS

Foreign-born Black women were significantly less likely to engage in substance use and had better self-rated physical and mental health than did native-born Black women. These findings were largely unchanged by adjustment for sociodemographic and psychosocial characteristics. The foreign-born advantage varied by place of birth: it was somewhat stronger for African-born women than for Caribbean-born women.

CONCLUSIONS

Further studies are needed to gain a better understanding of the role of immigrant selectivity and other characteristics that contribute to more favorable health behaviors and health outcomes among foreign-born Blacks than among native-born Blacks in the United States.

Risky health behaviors among mothers-to-be: the impact of adverse childhood experiences

OBJECTIVES

Adverse childhood experiences (ACEs) are risk factors for health problems later in life. This study aims to assess the influence of ACEs on risky health behaviors among mothers-to-be and determine whether a dose response occurs between ACEs and risky behaviors.

METHODS

A prospective survey of women attending health centers was conducted at the first prenatal care visit, and at 3 and 11 months postpartum. Surveys obtained information on maternal sociodemographic and health characteristics, and 7 ACEs prior to age 16. Risky behaviors included smoking, alcohol use, marijuana use, and other illicit drug use during pregnancy.

RESULTS

Our sample (N = 1476) consisted of low-income (mean annual personal income, $8272), young (mean age, 24 years), African American (71%), single (75%) women. Twenty-three percent of women reported smoking even after finding out they were pregnant, 7% reported alcohol use, and 7% reported illicit drug use during pregnancy. Nearly three fourths (72%) had one or more ACEs. There was a higher prevalence of each risky behavior among those exposed to each ACE than among those unexposed. The exception was alcohol use during pregnancy, where there was not an increased risk among those exposed when compared with those unexposed to witnessing a shooting or having a guardian in trouble with the law or in jail. The adjusted odds ratio for each risky behavior was >2.5 for those with >3 ACEs when compared with those without.

CONCLUSIONS

ACEs were associated with risky health behaviors reported by mothers-to-be. Greater efforts should target the prevention of ACEs to lower the risk for adverse health behaviors that have serious consequences for adults and their children.

Perceived discrimination and depressive symptoms, smoking, and recent alcohol use in pregnancy

BACKGROUND

Perceived discrimination is associated with poor mental health and health-compromising behaviors in a range of vulnerable populations, but this link has not been assessed among pregnant women. We aimed to determine whether perceived discrimination was associated with these important targets of maternal health care among low-income pregnant women.

METHODS

Face-to-face interviews were conducted in English or Spanish with 4,454 multiethnic, low-income, inner-city women at their first prenatal visit at public health centers in Philadelphia, Penn, USA, from 1999 to 2004. Perceived chronic everyday discrimination (moderate and high levels) in addition to experiences of major discrimination, depressive symptomatology (CES-D >or= 23), smoking in pregnancy (current), and recent alcohol use (12 months before pregnancy) were assessed by patients' self-report.

RESULTS

Moderate everyday discrimination was reported by 873 (20%) women, high everyday discrimination by 238 (5%) women, and an experience of major discrimination by 789 (18%) women. Everyday discrimination was independently associated with depressive symptomatology (moderate = prevalence ratio [PR] of 1.58, 95% CI: 1.38-1.79; high = PR of 1.82, 95% CI: 1.49-2.21); smoking (moderate = PR of 1.19, 95% CI: 1.05-1.36; high = PR of 1.41, 95% CI: 1.15-1.74); and recent alcohol use (moderate = PR of 1.23, 95% CI: 1.12-1.36). However, major discrimination was not independently associated with these outcomes.

CONCLUSIONS

This study demonstrated that perceived chronic everyday discrimination, but not major discrimination, was associated with depressive symptoms and health-compromising behaviors independent of potential confounders, including race and ethnicity, among pregnant low-income women.