22 Years of Aquatic Plant Spatiotemporal Dynamics in the Upper Mississippi River

Macrophyte (aquatic plant) recovery has occurred in rivers worldwide, but assemblage patterns and habitat requirements are generally not well understood. We examined patterns of species composition and macrophyte abundance in the Upper Mississippi River (UMR), spanning 22 years of monitoring and a period of vegetation recovery. Non-metric multidimensional scaling (NMDS) ordination revealed a gradient of macrophyte abundance and diversity for 25 species, which were associated with water velocity, depth, wind fetch, and water clarity. Three macrophyte genera of ecological and restoration interest (Zizania aquatica, Vallisneria americana, and Sagittaria spp.) occupied different ecological niches. Trends of NMDS values showed that Z. aquatica first co-occurred in shallow areas with Sagittaria spp. but then expanded into deeper, lotic habitats where V. americana often resided. Curve Fit regression analysis identified large areas of significant increases in the relative abundance of V. americana and percent cover of Z. aquatica in several reaches of the UMR from 1998–2019. Sagittaria spp. were more spatiotemporally dynamic, which may indicate specific habitat requirements and sensitivity to environmental gradients. Our analyses showed that these three ecologically important genera are spatiotemporally dynamic but have somewhat predictable habitat associations, which can guide macrophyte management and restoration in the UMR and other large, floodplain rivers.

Modelling moose-forest interactions under different predation scenarios at Isle Royale National Park, USA

Loss of top predators may contribute to high ungulate population densities and chronic over-browsing of forest ecosystems. However, spatial and temporal variability in the strength of interactions between predators and ungulates occurs over scales that are much shorter than the scales over which forest communities change, making it difficult to characterize trophic cascades in forest ecosystems. We applied the LANDIS-II forest succession model and a recently developed ungulate browsing extension to model how the moose population could interact with the forest ecosystem of Isle Royale National Park, USA, under three different wolf predation scenarios. We contrasted a 100-yr future without wolves (no predation) with two predation scenarios (weak, long-term average predation rates and strong, higher than average rates). Increasing predation rates led to lower peak moose population densities, lower biomass removal rates, and higher estimates of forage availability and landscape carrying capacity, especially during the first 40 yr of simulations. Thereafter, moose population density was similar for all predation scenarios, but available forage biomass and the carrying capacity of the landscape continued to diverge among predation scenarios. Changes in total aboveground live biomass and species composition were most pronounced in the no predation and weak predation scenarios. Consistent with smaller-scale studies, high browsing rates led to reductions in the biomass of heavily browsed Populus tremuloides, Betula papyrifera, and Abies balsamea, and increases in the biomass of unbrowsed Picea glauca and Picea mariana, especially after the simulation year 2050, when existing boreal hardwood stands at Isle Royale are projected to senesce. As a consequence, lower predation rates corresponded with a landscape that progressively shifted toward dominance by Picea glauca and Picea mariana, and lacking available forage biomass. Consistencies with previously documented small-scale successional shifts, and population estimates and trends that approximate those from this and other boreal forests that support moose provide some confidence that these dynamics represent a trophic cascade and therefore provide an important baseline against which to evaluate long-term and large-scale effects of alternative predator management strategies on ungulate populations and forest succession.

Changes in aquatic vegetation and floodplain land cover in the Upper Mississippi and Illinois rivers (1989-2000-2010)

Quantifying changes in the cover of river-floodplain systems can provide important insights into the processes that structure these landscapes as well as the potential consequences to the ecosystem services they provide. We examined net changes in 13 different aquatic and floodplain land cover classes using photo interpreted maps of the navigable portions of the Upper Mississippi River (UMR, above the confluence with the Ohio River) and Illinois River from 1989 to 2000 and from 2000 to 2010. We detected net decreases in vegetated aquatic area in nearly all river reaches from 1989 to 2000. The only river reaches that experienced a subsequent recovery of vegetated aquatic area from 2000 to 2010 were located in the northern portion of the UMR (above navigation pool 14) and two reaches in the Illinois River. Changes on the floodplain were dominated by urban development, which increased in nearly every river reach studied from 1989 to 2000. Agricultural lands declined in most river reaches from 2000 to 2010. The loss of agricultural land cover in the northern UMR was accompanied by increases in forest cover, whereas in the lower UMR and Illinois River, declines in agriculture were accompanied by increases in forest and shallow marsh communities. The changes in aquatic vegetation occupied between 5 and 20% of the total aquatic area and are likely associated with previously reported regional improvements in water clarity, while smaller (1-15% of the total floodplain area) changes in anthropogenic land cover types on the floodplain are likely driven by broad-scale socio-economic conditions.