Protection Conferred by COVID-19 Vaccination, Prior SARS-CoV-2 Infection, or Hybrid Immunity Against Omicron-Associated Severe Outcomes Among Community-Dwelling Adults

INTRODUCTION

We assessed protection from coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccines and/or prior severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection against Omicron-associated severe outcomes during successive sublineage-predominant periods.

METHODS

We used a test-negative design to estimate protection by vaccines and/or prior infection against hospitalization/death among community-dwelling, polymerase chain reaction (PCR)-tested adults aged ≥50 years in Ontario, Canada, between 2 January 2022 and 30 June 2023. Multivariable logistic regression was used to estimate the relative change in the odds of hospitalization/death with each vaccine dose (2-5) and/or prior PCR-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection (compared with unvaccinated, uninfected subjects) up to 15 months since the last vaccination or infection.

RESULTS

We included 18 526 cases with Omicron-associated severe outcomes and 90 778 test-negative controls. Vaccine protection was high during BA.1/BA.2 predominance but was generally <50% during periods of BA.4/BA.5 and BQ/XBB predominance without boosters. A third/fourth dose transiently increased protection during BA.4/BA.5 predominance (third-dose, 6-month: 68%, 95% confidence interval [CI] 63%-72%; fourth-dose, 6-month: 80%, 95% CI 77%-83%) but was lower and waned quickly during BQ/XBB predominance (third-dose, 6-month: 59%, 95% CI 48%-67%; 12-month: 49%, 95% CI 41%-56%; fourth-dose, 6-month: 62%, 95% CI 56%-68%, 12-months: 51%, 95% CI 41%-56%). Hybrid immunity conferred nearly 90% protection throughout BA.1/BA.2 and BA.4/BA.5 predominance but was reduced during BQ/XBB predominance (third-dose, 6-month: 60%, 95% CI 36%-75%; fourth-dose, 6-month: 63%, 95% CI 42%-76%). Protection was restored with a fifth dose (bivalent; 6-month: 91%, 95% CI 79%-96%). Prior infection alone did not confer lasting protection.

CONCLUSIONS

Protection from COVID-19 vaccines and/or prior SARS-CoV-2 infections against severe outcomes is reduced when immune-evasive variants/subvariants emerge and may also wane over time. Our findings support a variant-adapted booster vaccination strategy with periodic review.

The Effect of COVID-19 Vaccination on Outpatient Antibiotic Prescribing in Older Adults: A Self-Controlled Risk-Interval Study

BACKGROUND

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccination has been associated with reduced outpatient antibiotic prescribing among older adults with laboratory-confirmed severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). We assessed the impact of COVID-19 vaccination on outpatient antibiotic prescribing in the broader population of older adults, regardless of SARS-CoV-2 infection status.

METHODS

We included adults aged ≥65 years who received their first, second, and/or third COVID-19 vaccine dose from December 2020 to December 2022. We used a self-controlled risk-interval design and included cases who received an antibiotic prescription 2-6 weeks before vaccination (pre-vaccination or control interval) or after vaccination (post-vaccination or risk interval). We used conditional logistic regression to estimate the odds of being prescribed (1) any antibiotic, (2) a typical "respiratory" infection antibiotic, or (3) a typical "urinary tract" infection antibiotic (negative control) in the post-vaccination interval versus the pre-vaccination interval. We accounted for temporal changes in antibiotic prescribing using background monthly antibiotic prescribing counts.

RESULTS

469 923 vaccine doses met inclusion criteria. The odds of receiving any antibiotic or a respiratory antibiotic prescription were lower in the post-vaccination versus pre-vaccination interval (aOR, .973; 95% CI, .968-.978; aOR, .961; 95% CI, .953-.968, respectively). There was no association between vaccination and urinary antibiotic prescriptions (aOR, .996; 95% CI, .987-1.006). Periods with high (>10%) versus low (<5%) SARS-CoV-2 test positivity demonstrated greater reductions in antibiotic prescribing (aOR, .875; 95% CI, .845-.905; aOR, .996; 95% CI, .989-1.003, respectively).

CONCLUSIONS

COVID-19 vaccination was associated with reduced outpatient antibiotic prescribing in older adults, especially during periods of high SARS-CoV-2 circulation.

Characteristics of primary care practices by proportion of patients unvaccinated against SARS-CoV-2: a cross-sectional cohort study

BACKGROUND

Variations in primary care practices may explain some differences in health outcomes during the COVID-19 pandemic. We sought to evaluate the characteristics of primary care practices by the proportion of patients unvaccinated against SARS-CoV-2.

METHODS

We conducted a population-based, cross-sectional cohort study using linked administrative data sets in Ontario, Canada. We calculated the percentage of patients unvaccinated against SARS-CoV-2 enrolled with each comprehensive-care family physician, ranked physicians according to the proportion of patients unvaccinated, and identified physicians in the top 10% (v. the other 90%). We compared characteristics of family physicians and their patients in these 2 groups using standardized differences.

RESULTS

We analyzed 9060 family physicians with 10 837 909 enrolled patients. Family physicians with the largest proportion (top 10%) of unvaccinated patients (n = 906) were more likely to be male, to have trained outside of Canada, to be older, and to work in an enhanced fee-for-service model than those in the remaining 90%. Vaccine coverage (≥ 2 doses of SARS-CoV-2 vaccine) was 74% among patients of physicians with the largest proportion of unvaccinated patients, compared with 87% in the remaining patient population. Patients in the top 10% group tended to be younger and live in areas with higher levels of ethnic diversity and immigration and lower incomes.

INTERPRETATION

Primary care practices with the largest proportion of patients unvaccinated against SARS-CoV-2 served marginalized communities and were less likely to use team-based care models. These findings can guide resource planning and help tailor interventions to integrate public health priorities within primary care practices.

COVID-19 vaccines and adverse events of special interest: A multinational Global Vaccine Data Network (GVDN) cohort study of 99 million vaccinated individuals

BACKGROUND

The Global COVID Vaccine Safety (GCoVS) Project, established in 2021 under the multinational Global Vaccine Data Network™ (GVDN®), facilitates comprehensive assessment of vaccine safety. This study aimed to evaluate the risk of adverse events of special interest (AESI) following COVID-19 vaccination from 10 sites across eight countries.

METHODS

Using a common protocol, this observational cohort study compared observed with expected rates of 13 selected AESI across neurological, haematological, and cardiac outcomes. Expected rates were obtained by participating sites using pre-COVID-19 vaccination healthcare data stratified by age and sex. Observed rates were reported from the same healthcare datasets since COVID-19 vaccination program rollout. AESI occurring up to 42 days following vaccination with mRNA (BNT162b2 and mRNA-1273) and adenovirus-vector (ChAdOx1) vaccines were included in the primary analysis. Risks were assessed using observed versus expected (OE) ratios with 95 % confidence intervals. Prioritised potential safety signals were those with lower bound of the 95 % confidence interval (LBCI) greater than 1.5.

RESULTS

Participants included 99,068,901 vaccinated individuals. In total, 183,559,462 doses of BNT162b2, 36,178,442 doses of mRNA-1273, and 23,093,399 doses of ChAdOx1 were administered across participating sites in the study period. Risk periods following homologous vaccination schedules contributed 23,168,335 person-years of follow-up. OE ratios with LBCI > 1.5 were observed for Guillain-Barré syndrome (2.49, 95 % CI: 2.15, 2.87) and cerebral venous sinus thrombosis (3.23, 95 % CI: 2.51, 4.09) following the first dose of ChAdOx1 vaccine. Acute disseminated encephalomyelitis showed an OE ratio of 3.78 (95 % CI: 1.52, 7.78) following the first dose of mRNA-1273 vaccine. The OE ratios for myocarditis and pericarditis following BNT162b2, mRNA-1273, and ChAdOx1 were significantly increased with LBCIs > 1.5.

CONCLUSION

This multi-country analysis confirmed pre-established safety signals for myocarditis, pericarditis, Guillain-Barré syndrome, and cerebral venous sinus thrombosis. Other potential safety signals that require further investigation were identified.

Validation of case-ascertainment algorithms using health administrative data to identify people who inject drugs in Ontario, Canada

OBJECTIVE

Health administrative data can be used to improve the health of people who inject drugs by informing public health surveillance and program planning, monitoring, and evaluation. However, methodological gaps in the use of these data persist due to challenges in accurately identifying injection drug use at the population level. In this study, we validated case-ascertainment algorithms for identifying people who inject drugs using health administrative data in Ontario, Canada.

STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING

Data from cohorts of people with recent (past 12 month) injection drug use, including those participating in community-based research studies or seeking drug treatment were linked to health administrative data in Ontario from 1992-2020. We assessed the validity of algorithms to identify injection drug use over varying lookback periods (i.e., all years of data [1992 onwards] or within the past 1-5 years), including inpatient and outpatient physician billing claims for drug use, emergency department visits or hospitalizations for drug use or injection-related infections, and opioid agonist treatment (OAT).

RESULTS

Algorithms were validated using data from 15,241 people with recent IDU (918 in community cohorts, 14,323 seeking drug treatment). An algorithm consisting of ≥1 physician visit, emergency department visit or hospitalization for drug use, or OAT record could effectively identify IDU history (91.6% sensitivity, 94.2% specificity) and recent IDU (using 3 years lookback: 80.4% sensitivity, 99% specificity) among community cohorts. Algorithms were generally more sensitive among people who inject drugs seeking drug treatment.

CONCLUSION

Validated algorithms using health administrative data performed well in identifying people who inject drugs. Despite high sensitivity and specificity, the positive predictive value of these algorithms will vary depending on the underlying prevalence of injection drug use in the population in which they are applied.

A multiprovincial retrospective analysis of the incidence of myocarditis or pericarditis after mRNA vaccination compared to the incidence after SARS-CoV-2 infection

Objective

To compare myocarditis/pericarditis risk after COVID-19 mRNA vaccination versus SARS-CoV-2 infection, and to assess if myocarditis/pericarditis risk varies by vaccine dosing interval.

Methods

In this retrospective cohort study, we used linked databases in Quebec, Ontario, and British Columbia between January 26, 2020, and September 9, 2021. We included individuals aged 12 or above who received an mRNA vaccine as the second dose or were SARS-CoV-2-positive by RT-PCR. The outcome was hospitalization/emergency department visit for myocarditis/pericarditis within 21 days of exposure. We calculated age- and sex-stratified incidence ratios (IRs) of myocarditis/pericarditis following mRNA vaccination versus SARS-CoV-2 infection. We also calculated myocarditis/pericarditis incidence by vaccine type, homologous/heterologous schedule, and dosing interval. We pooled province-specific estimates using meta-analysis.

Results

Following 18,860,817 mRNA vaccinations and 860,335 SARS-CoV-2 infections, we observed 686 and 160 myocarditis/pericarditis cases, respectively. Myocarditis/pericarditis incidence was lower after vaccination than infection (IR [BNT162b2/SARS-CoV-2], 0.14; 95%CI, 0.07-0.29; IR [mRNA-1273/SARS-CoV-2], 0.28; 95%CI, 0.20-0.39). Within the vaccinated cohort, myocarditis/pericarditis incidence was lower with longer dosing intervals; IR (56 or more days/15-30 days) was 0.28 (95%CI, 0.19-0.41) for BNT162b2 and 0.26 (95%CI, 0.18-0.38) for mRNA-1273.

Conclusion

Myocarditis/pericarditis risk was lower after mRNA vaccination than SARS-CoV-2 infection, and with longer intervals between primary vaccine doses.

The safety of seasonal influenza vaccination among adults prescribed immune checkpoint inhibitors: A self-controlled case series study using administrative data

BACKGROUND

Immune checkpoint inhibitor (ICI) therapy for patients undergoing cancer treatment carries a risk of severe immune-related adverse events (IRAEs). Questions remain about whether seasonal influenza vaccination might increase the risk of developing IRAEs among these patients given that vaccines are immunomodulatory. Previous vaccine safety studies on patients with cancer prescribed ICI therapy have demonstrated conflicting results.

METHODS

Using health administrative data from Ontario, Canada among adults diagnosed with cancer who had been prescribed ICI therapy and who had received an influenza vaccine from 2012 to 2019, we conducted a self-controlled case series study. The pre-vaccination control period started 42-days post-ICI initiation until 14-days prior to vaccination, the risk period was 1-42 days post-vaccination, and the post-vaccination control period was after the risk period until ICI discontinuation or a maximum period of two years. Emergency department (ED) visit(s) and/or hospitalization for any cause after ICI initiation was used to identify severe IRAEs. We fitted a fixed-effects Poisson regression model accounting for seasonality and calendar time to estimate relative incidence of IRAEs between risk and control periods.

RESULTS

We identified 1133 records of cancer patients who received influenza vaccination while prescribed ICI therapy. Most were aged ≥ 66 years (73 %), were male (63 %), had lung cancer (54 %), and had received ICI therapy with a programmed cell death protein 1(PD-1) inhibitor (91 %). A quarter (26 %) experienced an ED visit and/or hospitalization during the observation period. Rates of ED visits and/or hospitalizations in the risk vs. control periods were similar, with an incidence rate ratio of 1.04 (95 % CI: 0.75-1.45). Subgroup and sensitivity analyses yielded similar results.

CONCLUSION

Seasonal influenza vaccination was not associated with an increased incidence of ED visit or hospitalization among adults with cancer treated with ICI therapy and our results support further evidence of vaccine safety.

Miscarriage after SARS-CoV-2 vaccination: A population-based cohort study

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the risk of miscarriage following SARS-CoV-2 vaccination, while accounting for the competing risk of induced abortion.

DESIGN

Population-based cohort study.

SETTING

Ontario, Canada.

PARTICIPANTS

Women aged 15-50 years with a confirmed pregnancy at ≤19 completed weeks' gestation.

METHODS

Exposure to first SARS-CoV-2 vaccination, handled in a time-varying manner, was defined as (i) unvaccinated, (ii) remotely vaccinated >28 days before the estimated conception date or (iii) recently vaccinated ≤28 days before conception and up to 120 days after conception.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

The outcome was miscarriage, occurring between the estimated date of conception and up to 19 completed weeks of pregnancy. Fine-Grey hazard models, accounting for the competing risk of induced abortion, generated hazard ratios (aHR), adjusted for socio-demographic factors, comorbidities, and biweekly periods.

RESULTS

Included were 246 259 pregnant women, of whom 34% received a first SARS-CoV-2 vaccination. Miscarriage occurred at a rate of 3.6 per 10 000 person-days among remotely vaccinated women and 3.2 per 10 000 person-days among those recently vaccinated, in contrast to a rate of 1.9 per 10 000 person-days among unvaccinated women, with corresponding aHR of 0.98 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.91-1.07) and 1.00 (95% CI 0.93-1.08).

CONCLUSIONS

SARS-CoV-2 vaccination was not associated with miscarriage while accounting for the competing risk of induced abortion. This study reiterates the importance of including pregnant women in new vaccine clinical trials and registries, and the rapid dissemination of vaccine safety data.

Hepatitis C Attributable Healthcare Costs and Mortality among Immigrants: A Population-Based Matched Cohort Study

Background

Data on the economic burden of chronic hepatitis C (CHC) among immigrants are limited. Our objective was to estimate the CHC-attributable mortality and healthcare costs among immigrants in Ontario, Canada.

Methods

We conducted a population-based matched cohort study among immigrants diagnosed with CHC between May 31, 2003, and December 31, 2018, using linked health administrative data. Immigrants with CHC (exposed) were matched 1 : 1 to immigrants without CHC (unexposed) using a combination of hard (index date, sex, and age) and propensity-score matching. Net costs (2020 Canadian dollars) collected from the healthcare payer perspective were calculated using a phase-of-care approach and used to estimate long-term costs adjusted for survival.

Results

We matched 5,575 exposed individuals with unexposed controls, achieving a balanced match. The mean age was 47 years, and 52% was male. On average, 10.5% of exposed and 3.5% of unexposed individuals died 15 years postindex (relative risk = 2.9; 95% confidence interval (CI): 2.6-3.5). The net 30-day costs per person were $88 (95% CI: 55 to 122) for the prediagnosis, $324 (95% CI: 291 to 356) for the initial phase, $1,016 (95% CI: 900 to 1,132) for the late phase, and $975 (95% CI: -25 to 1,974) for the terminal phase. The mean net healthcare cost adjusted for survival at 15 years was $90,448.

Conclusions

Compared to unexposed immigrants, immigrants infected with CHC have higher mortality rates and greater healthcare costs. These findings will support the planning of HCV elimination efforts among key risk groups in the province.

Protection of prior SARS-CoV-2 infection, COVID-19 boosters, and hybrid immunity against Omicron severe illness: A population-based cohort study of five million residents in Canada

BACKGROUND

Evidence on protection of different patterns of infection- and vaccine-acquired immunity against Omicron-associated severe illness is useful in planning booster vaccination strategies. We examined protection of prior SARS-CoV-2 infection, a third or a fourth COVID-19 vaccine dose, and hybrid immunity against Omicron-associated severe illness.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

This population-based cohort study followed five million individuals with at least one SARS-CoV-2 RT-PCR test before November 21, 2021 until an Omicron-associatedhospitalization or death. We used Cox regression models to estimate risks of Omicron-associated hospitalization and a composite severe outcome (hospitalized and death), among individuals with infection- and/or vaccination-acquired immunity. Individuals who were unvaccinated and had no history of a prior infection severed as the reference group. Both adjusted hazard ratios (HR) and corresponding protection (one minus adjusted HR), with 95% confidence intervals (CIs), were reported. Three doses provided 94% (95%CI 93-95) and 93% (95%CI 91-94) protection against Omicron-associated hospitalization at 2-3 and ≥3 months post-vaccination respectively, similar to the protection conferred by three doses and a prior infection (2-3 months: 99%, 95%CI 97-100; ≥3 months: 97%, 95%CI 92-99) and four doses (1 month: 87%, 95%CI 79-92; 1-2 months: 96%, 95%CI 92-98). In individuals ≥65 years old, protection of four doses increased to 95% (95%CI 91-98) at 1-2 months, significantly higher than that of three doses over the follow-up period. Similar results were observed with the composite severe outcome.

CONCLUSION

At least three antigenic exposures, achieved by vaccination or infection, confers significant protection against Omicron-associated hospitalization and death in all age groups. Our findings support a third dose for the overall population, regardless of prior infection status, and a fourth dose for the elderly to maintain high level of immunity and substantially reduce risk of severe illness at individual level.

Indirect impact of childhood 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV13) in Canadian older adults: a Canadian Immunization Research Network (CIRN) retrospective observational study

BACKGROUND

13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV13) has been part of publicly funded childhood immunisation programmes in Ontario and British Columbia (BC) since 2010. We assessed the indirect impact of infant PCV13 programmes on invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) and all-cause pneumonia hospitalisation in older adults (aged ≥65 years) using a retrospective observational study.

METHODS

We extracted monthly IPD and all-cause pneumonia cases from laboratory and health administrative databases between January 2005 and December 2018. Using a quasi-experimental difference-in-differences design, we calculated the ratio of risk ratios (RRRs) using incidence rates of IPD or all-cause pneumonia cases before (pre-PCV13 period) and after (PCV13 period) 2010 with rates of fractures as controls.

RESULTS

The rates of all IPD or PCV serotype-specific IPD for older adults in both Ontario and BC did not change in 8 years after childhood PCV13 programme implementation. All-cause pneumonia increased in Ontario (RRR 1.38, 95% CI 1.11 to 1.71) but remained unchanged in BC.

CONCLUSIONS

Indirect community protection of older adults from hospitalisation with pneumococcal disease stalled despite maturation of childhood PCV13 vaccination programmes in two Canadian provinces.

Effectiveness of mRNA COVID-19 Monovalent and Bivalent Vaccine Booster Doses Against Omicron Severe Outcomes Among Adults Aged ≥50 Years in Ontario, Canada: A Canadian Immunization Research Network Study

We estimated the effectiveness of booster doses of monovalent and bivalent mRNA COVID-19 vaccines against Omicron-associated severe outcomes among adults aged ≥50 years in Ontario, Canada. Monovalent and bivalent mRNA COVID-19 booster doses provided similar strong initial protection against severe outcomes. Uncertainty remains around waning of protection from these vaccines.

A Population-Based Test-Negative Matched Case-Control Analysis of SARS-CoV-2 Vaccine Effectiveness Among Pregnant People in Ontario, Canada

OBJECTIVE

Pregnancy is a risk factor for severe SARS-CoV-2 infection, which can result in adverse pregnancy outcomes, thus making understanding vaccine effectiveness (VE) in this population important. This study aimed to assess the VE of mRNA COVID-19 vaccines against symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection and COVID-19-related hospitalization in pregnant people.

METHODS

Population-based matched test-negative case-control study of pregnant people aged 18-49 years, of 12 or more weeks gestation in Ontario, Canada, symptomatic with possible SARS-CoV-2 infection, and having at least 1 positive (n = 1842) or negative (n = 8524) real-time polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) SARS-CoV-2 test between December 14, 2020, and December 31, 2021. The exposure was receipt of ≥1 dose of mRNA COVID-19 vaccine versus no vaccination. Exposure was further stratified by number and recency of doses. The primary outcome was a positive SARS-CoV-2 RT-PCR test. As a secondary outcome, VE for COVID-19-related hospitalization was assessed.

RESULTS

In the primary outcome analysis, there were 1821 positive cases, matched to 1821 negative controls. The mean (SD) maternal age was 31 (5) years. When compared to those unvaccinated, receipt of ≥1 dose was associated with an estimated VE of 39% (95% CI 29%-48%) for symptomatic infection, and 85% (95% CI 72%-92%) for COVID-19 hospitalization. VE estimates demonstrated waning with increased time since last vaccination.

CONCLUSIONS

mRNA COVID-19 vaccines provide protection against symptomatic COVID-19 illness and are highly effective at preventing severe illness in pregnant people. The observed effect of vaccine waning highlights the importance of booster doses to provide optimal protection for pregnant people.

Measuring waning protection from seasonal influenza vaccination during nine influenza seasons, Ontario, Canada, 2010/11 to 2018/19

BackgroundWaning immunity from seasonal influenza vaccination can cause suboptimal protection during peak influenza activity. However, vaccine effectiveness studies assessing waning immunity using vaccinated and unvaccinated individuals are subject to biases.AimWe examined the association between time since vaccination and laboratory-confirmed influenza to assess the change in influenza vaccine protection over time.MethodsUsing linked laboratory and health administrative databases in Ontario, Canada, we identified community-dwelling individuals aged ≥ 6 months who received an influenza vaccine before being tested for influenza by RT-PCR during the 2010/11 to 2018/19 influenza seasons. We estimated the adjusted odds ratio (aOR) for laboratory-confirmed influenza by time since vaccination (categorised into intervals) and for every 28 days.ResultsThere were 53,065 individuals who were vaccinated before testing for influenza, with 10,264 (19%) influenza-positive cases. The odds of influenza increased from 1.05 (95% CI: 0.91-1.22) at 42-69 days after vaccination and peaked at 1.27 (95% CI: 1.04-1.55) at 126-153 days when compared with the reference interval (14-41 days). This corresponded to 1.09-times increased odds of influenza every 28 days (aOR = 1.09; 95% CI: 1.04-1.15). Individuals aged 18-64 years showed the greatest decline in protection against influenza A(H1N1) (aORper 28 days = 1.26; 95% CI: 0.97-1.64), whereas for individuals aged ≥ 65 years, it was against influenza A(H3N2) (aORper 28 days = 1.20; 95% CI: 1.08-1.33). We did not observe evidence of waning vaccine protection for individuals aged < 18 years.ConclusionsInfluenza vaccine protection wanes during an influenza season. Understanding the optimal timing of vaccination could ensure robust protection during seasonal influenza activity.

Early influenza vaccine effectiveness estimates using routinely collected data, Alberta, Canada, 2023/24 season

Timely and precise influenza vaccine effectiveness (VE) estimates are needed to guide public health messaging and impact vaccine uptake immediately. Using routinely collected laboratory, vaccination and health administrative data from Alberta, Canada, we estimated influenza VE against infection for the 2023/24 season on a near real-time basis, to late December, at 61% (95% CI: 58-64) against influenza A(H1N1), 49% (95% CI: 28-63) against influenza A(H3N2) and 75% (95% CI: 58-85) against influenza B.

Effectiveness of a Fourth COVID-19 mRNA Vaccine Dose Against the Omicron Variant in Solid Organ Transplant Recipients

BACKGROUND

The effectiveness of booster doses of COVID-19 vaccines in solid organ transplant recipients is unclear. We conducted a population-based matched cohort study using linked administrative healthcare databases from Ontario, Canada to estimate the marginal vaccine effectiveness of a fourth versus third dose of the BNT162b2 and mRNA-1273 vaccines against clinically important outcomes (ie, hospitalization or death) and infection during the era of the Omicron variant.

METHODS

We matched 3120 solid organ transplant recipients with a third COVID-19 vaccine dose (reference) to 3120 recipients with a fourth dose. Recipients were matched on the third dose date (±7 d). We used a multivariable Cox proportional hazards model to estimate the marginal vaccine effectiveness with outcomes occurring between December 21, 2021 and April 30, 2022.

RESULTS

The cumulative incidence of COVID-19-related hospitalization or death was 2.8% (95% confidence interval [CI], 2.0-3.7) in the third dose group compared with 1.1% (95% CI, 0.59-1.8) in the fourth dose group after 84 d of follow-up (P < 0.001). The adjusted marginal vaccine effectiveness was 70% (95% CI, 47-83) against clinically important outcomes and 39% (95% CI, 21-52) against SARS-CoV-2 infection.

CONCLUSIONS

Compared with a third dose, a fourth dose of the COVID-19 vaccine was associated with improved protection against hospitalization, death, and SARS-CoV-2 infection during the Omicron era. Results highlight the importance of a booster COVID-19 vaccine dose in solid organ transplant recipients.

Newborn and Early Infant Outcomes Following Maternal COVID-19 Vaccination During Pregnancy

Importance

The study team previously showed that maternal mRNA COVID-19 vaccination during pregnancy confers protection against SARS-CoV-2 infection and COVID-19-related hospital admission in newborns and young infants. In this study, the study team evaluated newborn and early infant safety outcomes following maternal messenger RNA (mRNA) COVID-19 vaccination during pregnancy, for which there is limited comparative epidemiological evidence.

Objective

To determine if maternal mRNA COVID-19 vaccination during pregnancy is associated with adverse newborn and early infant outcomes.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This population-based retrospective cohort study took place in Ontario, Canada, using multiple linked health administrative databases. Singleton live births with an expected delivery date between May 1, 2021, and September 2, 2022, were included. Data were analyzed from January 2023 through March 2023.

Exposure

Maternal mRNA COVID-19 vaccination (1 or more doses) during pregnancy.

Main Outcomes and Measures

Severe neonatal morbidity (SNM), neonatal death, neonatal intensive care unit (NICU) admission, neonatal readmission, and hospital admission up to 6 months of age. The study team calculated inverse probability of treatment weighted risk ratios (RRs) and fit weighted Cox proportional hazards regression models comparing outcomes in infants of mothers who received COVID-19 vaccination during pregnancy with those who received no COVID-19 vaccine doses before delivery.

Results

In total, 142 006 infants (72 595 male [51%]; mean [SD] gestational age at birth, 38.7 [1.7] weeks) were included; 85 670 were exposed to 1 or more COVID-19 vaccine doses in utero (60%). Infants of vaccinated mothers had lower risks of SNM (vaccine exposed 7.3% vs vaccine unexposed 8.3%; adjusted RR [aRR], 0.86; 95% CI, 0.83-0.90), neonatal death (0.09% vs 0.16%; aRR, 0.47; 95% CI, 0.33-0.65), and NICU admission (11.4% vs 13.1%; aRR, 0.86; 95% CI, 0.83-0.89). There was no association between maternal vaccination during pregnancy and neonatal readmission (5.5% vs 5.1%; adjusted hazard ratio, 1.03; 95% CI, 0.98-1.09) or 6-month hospital admission (8.4% vs 8.1%; adjusted hazard ratio, 1.01; 95% CI, 0.96-1.05).

Conclusions and Relevance

In this population-based cohort study in Ontario, Canada, maternal mRNA COVID-19 vaccination during pregnancy was associated with lower risks of SNM, neonatal death, and NICU admission. In addition, neonatal and 6-month readmissions were not increased in infants of mothers vaccinated during pregnancy.

Improving estimates of pertussis burden in Ontario, Canada 2010-2017 by combining validation and capture-recapture methodologies

An underestimation of pertussis burden has impeded understanding of transmission and disallows effective policy and prevention to be prioritized and enacted. Capture-recapture analyses can improve burden estimates; however, uncertainty remains around incorporating health administrative data due to accuracy limitations. The aim of this study is to explore the impact of pertussis case definitions and data accuracy on capture-recapture estimates. We used a dataset from March 7, 2010 to December 31, 2017 comprised of pertussis case report, laboratory, and health administrative data. We compared Chao capture-recapture abundance estimates using prevalence, incidence, and adjusted false positive case definitions. The latter was developed by removing the proportion of false positive physician billing code-only case episodes after validation. We calculated sensitivity by dividing the number of observed cases by abundance. Abundance estimates demonstrated that a high proportion of cases were missed by all sources. Under the primary analysis, the highest sensitivity of 78.5% (95% CI 76.2-80.9%) for those less than one year of age was obtained using all sources after adjusting for false positives, which dropped to 43.1% (95% CI 42.4-43.8%) for those one year of age or older. Most code-only episodes were false positives (91.0%), leading to considerably lower abundance estimates and improvements in laboratory testing and case report sensitivity using this definition. Accuracy limitations can be accounted for in capture-recapture analyses using different case definitions and adjustment. The latter enhanced the validity of estimates, furthering the utility of capture-recapture methods to epidemiological research. Findings demonstrated that all sources consistently fail to detect pertussis cases. This is differential by age, suggesting ascertainment and testing bias. Results demonstrate the value of incorporating real time health administrative data into public health surveillance if accuracy limitations can be addressed.

Validating pertussis data measures using electronic medical record data in Ontario, Canada 1986-2016

Background

Pertussis is a reportable disease in many countries, but ascertainment bias has limited data accuracy. This study aims to validate pertussis data measures using a reference standard that incorporates different suspected case severities, allowing for the impact of case severity on accuracy and detection to be explored.

Methods

We evaluated 25 pertussis detection algorithms in a primary care electronic medical record database between January 1, 1986 and December 30, 2016. We estimated sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV), and negative predictive value (NPV). We used sensitivity analyses to explore areas of uncertainty and evaluated reasons for lack of detection.

Results

The algorithm including all data measures achieved the highest sensitivity at 20.6%. Sensitivity increased to 100% after reclassifying symptom-only cases as non-cases, but the PPV remained low. Age at first episode was significantly associated with detection in half of the tested scenarios, and false negatives often had some history of immunization.

Conclusions

Sensitivity improved by reclassifying symptom-only cases but remained low unless multiple data sources were used. Results demonstrate a trade-off between PPV and sensitivity. EMRs can enhance detection through patient history and clinical note data. It is essential to improve case identification of older individuals with vaccination history to reduce ascertainment bias.

Effectiveness of maternal influenza vaccination during pregnancy against laboratory-confirmed seasonal influenza among infants under 6 months of age in Ontario, Canada

BACKGROUND

Randomized trials conducted in low- and middle-income settings demonstrated efficacy of influenza vaccination during pregnancy against influenza infection among infants <6 months of age. However, vaccine effectiveness (VE) estimates from settings with different population characteristics and influenza seasonality remain limited.

METHODS

We conducted a test-negative study in Ontario, Canada. All influenza virus tests among infants <6 months from 2010-2019 were identified and linked with health databases to ascertain information on maternal-infant dyads. VE was estimated from the odds ratio for influenza vaccination during pregnancy among cases versus controls, computed using logistic regression with adjustment for potential confounders.

RESULTS

Among 23,806 infants tested for influenza, 1,783 (7.5%) were positive and 1,708 (7.2%) were born to mothers vaccinated against influenza during pregnancy. VE against laboratory-confirmed infant influenza infection was 64% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 50%-74%). VE was similar by trimester of vaccination (1st/2nd: 66%, 40%-80%; 3rd: 63%, 46%-74%), infant age at testing (0-<2 months: 63%, 46%-75%; 2-<6 months: 64%, 36%-79%), and gestational age at birth (≥37 weeks: 64%, 50%-75%;  < 37 weeks: 61%, 4%-86%). VE against influenza hospitalization was 67% (95%CI: 50%-78%).

CONCLUSIONS

Influenza vaccination during pregnancy offers effective protection to infants <6 months, for whom vaccines are not currently available.

What are effective vaccine distribution approaches for equity-deserving and high-risk populations during COVID-19? Exploring best practices and recommendations in Canada: protocol for a mixed-methods multiple case codesign study

INTRODUCTION

The WHO has stated that vaccine hesitancy is a serious threat to overcoming COVID-19. Vaccine hesitancy among underserved and at-risk communities is an ongoing challenge in Canada. Public confidence in vaccine safety and effectiveness and the principles of equity need to be considered in vaccine distribution. In Canada, governments of each province or territory manage their own healthcare system, providing an opportunity to compare and contrast distribution strategies. The overarching objective of this study is to identify effective vaccine distribution approaches and advance knowledge on how to design and implement various strategies to meet the different needs of underserved communities.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

Multiple case studies in seven Canadian provinces will be conducted using a mixed-methods design. The study will be informed by Experience-Based CoDesign techniques and theoretically guided by the Socio-Ecological Model and the Vaccine Hesitancy Matrix frameworks. Phase 1 will involve a policy document review to systematically explore the vaccine distribution strategy over time in each jurisdiction. This will inform the second phase, which will involve (2a) semistructured, in-depth interviews with policymakers, public health officials, researchers, providers, groups representing patients, researchers and stakeholders and (2b) an analysis of population-based administrative health data of vaccine administration. Integration of qualitative and quantitative data will inform the identification of effective vaccine distribution approaches for various populations. Informed by this evidence, phase 3 of the study will involve conducting focus groups with multiple stakeholders to codesign recommendations for the design and implementation of effective vaccine delivery strategies for equity-deserving and at-risk populations.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

This study is approved by the University of Toronto's Health Sciences Research Ethics Board (#42643), University of British Columbia Behavioural Research Ethics Board (#H22-01750-A002), Research Ethics Board of the Nova Scotia Health Authority (#48272), Newfoundland and Labrador Health Research Ethics Board (#2022.126), Conjoint Health Research Ethics Board, University of Calgary (REB22-0207), and University of Manitoba Health Research Board (H2022-239). The outcome of this study will be to produce a series of recommendations for implementing future vaccine distribution approaches from the perspective of various stakeholders, including equity-deserving and at-risk populations.

Safety and Health Care Use Following COVID-19 Vaccination Among Adults With Rheumatoid Arthritis: A Population-Based Self-Controlled Case Series Analysis

OBJECTIVE

To determine if coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccines were associated with adverse events of special interest (AESIs) and healthcare use among adults with rheumatoid arthritis (RA).

METHODS

Among adults with RA who received at least 1 COVID-19 vaccine, a self-controlled case series (SCCS) analysis was conducted to evaluate relative incidence (RI) rates of AESIs (Bell palsy, idiopathic thrombocytopenia, acute disseminated encephalomyelitis, pericarditis/myocarditis, Guillain-Barré syndrome, transverse myelitis, myocardial infarction, anaphylaxis, stroke, deep vein thrombosis, pulmonary embolism, narcolepsy, appendicitis, and disseminated intravascular coagulation) in any 21-day period following vaccination compared to control periods. Secondary outcomes included emergency department (ED) visits, hospitalizations, and rheumatology visits. A matched non-RA comparator group was created and a separate SCCS analysis was conducted. RI ratios (RIRs) were used to compare RA and non-RA groups.

RESULTS

Among 123,466 patients with RA and 493,864 comparators, the majority received mRNA vaccines. For patients with RA, relative to control periods, AESIs were not increased. ED visits increased after dose 2 (RI 1.06, 95% CI 1.03-1.10) and decreased after dose 3 (RI 0.93, 95% CI 0.89-0.96). Hospitalizations were lower after the first (RI 0.83, 95% CI 0.78-0.88), second (RI 0.86, 95% CI 0.81-0.92), and third (RI 0.89, 95% CI 0.83-0.95) doses. Rheumatology visits increased after dose 1 (RI 1.08, 95% CI 1.07-1.10), and decreased after doses 2 and 3. Relative to comparators, patients with RA had a higher AESI risk after dose 3 (RIR 1.28, 95% CI 1.05-1.56). Patients with RA experienced fewer ED visits (RIR 0.73, 95% CI 0.58-0.90) and hospitalizations (RIR 0.52, 95% CI 0.36-0.75) after dose 4.

CONCLUSION

COVID-19 vaccines in patients with RA were not associated with an increase in AESI risk or healthcare use after every dose.

Engagement with the HCV care cascade among high-risk groups: A population-based study

BACKGROUND

HCV elimination requires a thorough understanding of the care cascade. A direct-acting antiviral (DAA)-era description of the care cascade has not been undertaken in Ontario, Canada's most populous jurisdiction. Our primary objective was to describe the current population-level care cascade in the general Ontario population and among key risk groups ─ baby boomers, immigrants, and individuals experiencing residential instability. The secondary objective was to identify predictors of engagement.

METHODS

We conducted a population-based cohort study of Ontario residents undergoing HCV testing between January 1, 1999, and December 31, 2018, and mapped the care cascade [antibody-diagnosed, RNA tested, RNA positive, genotyped, treated, achieved sustained virologic response, reinfected/relapsed] as of December 31, 2018. The cascade was stratified by risk groups. Cause-specific hazard modeling was used to identify demographic, and socioeconomic predictors of engagement with key steps of the cascade.

RESULTS

Among 108,428 Ontario residents living with an HCV antibody diagnosis, 88% received confirmatory RNA testing; of these, 62% tested positive and 94% of positive tests were genotyped. Of those with confirmed viremia, 53% initiated treatment and 76% of treated individuals achieved sustained virologic response, while ~1% experienced reinfection or relapse. Males, older birth cohorts, long-term residents, those with a history of substance use disorder and social marginalization (eg, material deprivation, residential instability), and those initially diagnosed in the pre-DAA era exhibited lower rates of engagement with almost every step of HCV care.

CONCLUSIONS

Despite DAA era improvements, treatment initiation remains a major gap. HCV screening and linkage-to-treatment, particularly for those with a history of substance use disorder and social marginalization, will be needed to equitably close gaps in HCV care in the province.

Impact of national recommendations for routine pertussis vaccination during pregnancy on infant pertussis in Ontario, Canada: a population-based time-series study

BACKGROUND

In February 2018, Canada's National Advisory Committee on Immunization (NACI) recommended antenatal tetanus-diphtheria-acellular pertussis (Tdap) immunization in every pregnancy regardless of previous Tdap immunization history. We examined the impact of the NACI recommendation on rates of infant pertussis in Ontario, Canada.

METHODS

We conducted a population-based time-series study of all live births in Ontario between August 1, 2011 and February 28, 2020. We used interventional autoregressive integrated moving average models to examine the impact of the NACI recommendation on monthly rates of pertussis among infants ≤ 3 months of age.

RESULTS

We observed 675 incident cases of pertussis among 1,368,024 infants 3 months of age or less between August 2011 and February 2020. The average monthly percent change in infant pertussis during the period up to and including publication of the NACI guidance and the period following publication were 0.0% (95% CI: -0.4-0.3%) and - 0.8% (95% CI -2.3% to -0.1%), respectively. Following interventional ARIMA modelling, publication of the NACI guidance was not associated with a statistically significant decrease in the monthly pertussis incidence trend (-0.67 cases per 100,000 infants; p = 0.73).

CONCLUSION

Publication of national recommendations for antenatal Tdap immunization in every pregnancy did not significantly reduce infant pertussis rates. This may reflect the persistently low rate of antenatal vaccination following publication of the recommendations. Expanding the scope of practice of allied health care providers to include antenatal Tdap immunization and patient education regarding antenatal pertussis immunization should be considered to further optimize uptake of vaccination.

Comparison of socio-economic determinants of COVID-19 testing and positivity in Canada: A multi-provincial analysis

BACKGROUND

The effects of the COVID-19 pandemic have been more pronounced for socially disadvantaged populations. We sought to determine how access to SARS-CoV-2 testing and the likelihood of testing positive for COVID-19 were associated with demographic factors, socioeconomic status (SES) and social determinants of health (SDH) in three Canadian provinces.

METHODS

An observational population-based cross-sectional study was conducted for the provinces of Ontario, Manitoba and New Brunswick between March 1, 2020 and April 27, 2021, using provincial health administrative data. After excluding residents of long-term care homes, those without current provincial health insurance and those who were tested for COVID-19 out of province, records from provincial healthcare administrative databases were reviewed for 16,900,661 healthcare users. Data was modelled separately for each province in accordance to a prespecified protocol and follow-up consultations among provincial statisticians and collaborators. We employed univariate and multivariate regression models to examine determinants of testing and test results.

RESULTS

After adjustment for other variables, female sex and urban residency were positively associated with testing, while female sex was negatively associated with test positivity. In New Brunswick and Ontario, individuals living in higher income areas were more likely to be tested, whereas in Manitoba higher income was negatively associated with both testing and positivity. High ethnocultural composition was associated with lower testing rates. Both high ethnocultural composition and high situational vulnerability increased the odds of testing positive for SARS-CoV-2.

DISCUSSION

We observed that multiple demographic, income and SDH factors were associated with SARS-CoV-2 testing and test positivity. Barriers to healthcare access identified in this study specifically relate to COVID-19 testing but may reflect broader inequities for certain at-risk groups.

SARS-CoV-2 Infection, Hospitalization, and Mortality in Adults With and Without Cancer

Importance

Patients with cancer are at increased risk of SARS-CoV-2-associated adverse outcomes.

Objective

To determine the associations of tumor type with SARS-CoV-2 infection, hospitalization, intensive care unit (ICU) admission, and death.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This retrospective, population-based cohort study included community-dwelling adults aged at least 18 years in Ontario, Canada, ICES-linked provincial health databases from January 1, 2020, to November 30, 2021. Data were analyzed from December 1, 2021, to November 1, 2022.

Exposures

Cancer diagnosis.

Main Outcomes and Measures

The primary outcome was SARS-CoV-2 infection, and secondary outcomes included all-cause 14-day hospitalization, 21-day ICU admission, and 28-day death following SARS-CoV-2 infection. Cox proportional hazards models were used to obtain adjusted hazard ratios (aHRs) and 95% CIs.

Results

Of 11 732 108 people in the ICES-linked health databases, 279 287 had cancer (57.2% female; mean [SD] age, 65.9 [16.1] years) and 11 452 821 people did not have cancer (45.7% female; mean [SD] age, 65.9 [16.0] years). Overall, 464 574 individuals (4.1%) developed SARS-CoV-2 infection. Individuals with hematologic malignant neoplasms (33 901 individuals) were at increased risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection (aHR, 1.19; 95% CI, 1.13-1.25), 14-day hospitalization (aHR, 1.75; 95% CI, 1.57-1.96), and 28-day mortality (aHR, 2.03; 95% CI, 1.74-2.38) compared with the overall population, while individuals with solid tumors (245 386 individuals) were at lower risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection (aHR, 0.93; 95% CI, 0.91-0.95) but increased risk of 14-day hospitalization (aHR, 1.11; 95% CI, 1.05-1.18) and 28-day mortality (aHR, 1.31; 95% CI, 1.19-1.44). The 28-day mortality rate was high in hospitalized patients with hematologic malignant neoplasms (163 of 321 hospitalized patients [50.7%]) or solid tumors (486 of 1060 hospitalized patients [45.8%]). However, the risk of 21-day ICU admission in patients with hematologic malignant neoplasms (aHR, 1.14; 95% CI, 0.93-1.40) or solid tumors (aHR, 0.93; 95% CI, 0.82-1.05) was not significantly different from that among individuals without cancer. The SARS-CoV-2 infection risk decreased stepwise with increasing numbers of COVID-19 vaccine doses received (1 dose: aHR, 0.63; 95% CI, 0.62-0.63; 2 doses: aHR, 0.16; 95% CI, 0.16-0.16; 3 doses: aHR, 0.05; 95% CI, 0.04-0.06).

Conclusions and Relevance

These findings highlight the importance of prioritization strategies regarding ICU access to reduce the mortality risk in increased-risk populations, such as patients with cancer.

Pregnancy, fetal, and neonatal outcomes after a first booster dose of covid-19 vaccine during pregnancy in Ontario, Canada: population based, retrospective cohort study

Objective

To assess risk of adverse pregnancy, fetal, and neonatal outcomes after a third dose (first booster dose) of covid-19 vaccine during pregnancy among individuals who had completed both doses of primary covid-19 vaccine series before pregnancy.

Design

Population based, retrospective cohort study.

Setting

Ontario, Canada, from 20 December 2021 to 31 August 2022.

Participants

Individuals were included if they were pregnant with an expected date of delivery from 20 December 2021 (start date of third dose eligibility for everyone ≥18 years) to 31 August 2022, who had completed the two doses of primary covid-19 messenger RNA vaccine series before pregnancy, and became eligible for a third dose (≥six months since dose two) before the end of pregnancy.

Main outcome measures

Pregnancy outcomes included hypertensive disorders of pregnancy, placental abruption, caesarean delivery, chorioamnionitis, and postpartum hemorrhage. Fetal and neonatal outcomes included stillbirth, preterm birth, admission to neonatal intensive care unit for >24 h, newborn 5 min Apgar score <7, and small-for-gestational age infant (<10th percentile). We estimated hazard ratios and 95% confidence intervals for study outcomes, treating dose three as a time varying exposure and adjusting for confounding using inverse probability weighting.

Results

Among 32 689 births, 18 491 (56.6%) were born to individuals who received a third covid-19 dose during pregnancy. Compared with eligible individuals who did not receive a third dose during pregnancy, no increased risks were associated with receiving a third covid-19 vaccine dose during pregnancy for placental abruption (adjusted hazard ratio 0.84 (95% confidence interval 0.70 to 1.02)), chorioamnionitis (0.67 (0.49 to 0.90)), postpartum haemorrhage (1.01 (0.89 to 1.16)), caesarean delivery (0.90 (0.87 to 0.94)), stillbirth (0.56 (0.39 to 0.81)), preterm birth (0.91 (0.84 to 0.99)), neonatal intensive care unit admission (0.96 (0.90 to 1.03)), 5 min Apgar score<7 (0.96 (0.82 to 1.14)), or small-for-gestational age infant (0.86 (0.79 to 0.93)).

Conclusion

Receipt of a third covid-19 vaccine dose during pregnancy was not associated with an increased risk of adverse pregnancy, fetal, or neonatal outcomes. These findings can help to inform evidence based decision making about the risks and benefits of covid-19 booster doses during pregnancy.

Estimating the incidence of first RSV hospitalization in children born in Ontario, Canada

BACKGROUND

Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) contributes significantly to morbidity in children, placing substantial burdens on health systems, thus RSV vaccine development and program implementation are a public health priority. More data on burden are needed by policymakers to identify priority populations and formulate prevention strategies as vaccines are developed and licensed.

MATERIALS/METHODS

Using health administrative data, we calculated incidence rates of RSV hospitalization in a population-based birth cohort of all children born over a six-year period (May 2009 - June 2015) in Ontario, Canada. Children were followed until their first RSV hospitalization, death, 5 th birthday, or the end of the study period (June 2016). RSV hospitalizations were identified using a validated algorithm based on International Classification of Diseases, 10 th Revision, and/or laboratory-confirmed outcomes. We calculated hospitalization rates by various characteristics of interest, including calendar month, age groups, sex, comorbidities, and gestational age.

RESULTS

The overall RSV hospitalization rate for children <5 years was 4.2 per 1,000 person-years (PY) with a wide range across age groups (from 29.6 to 0.52 per 1000PY in children aged 1 month and 36-59 months, respectively). Rates were higher in children born at a younger gestational age (23.2 per 1000PY for those born at <28 weeks versus 3.9 per 1000PY born at ≥37 weeks); this increased risk persisted as age increased. While the majority of children in our study had no comorbidities, rates were higher in children with comorbidities. For all age groups, rates were highest between December and March.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results confirm the high burden of RSV hospitalization and highlight young infants are at additional risk, namely premature infants. These results can inform prevention efforts.

Temporal trends and determinants of COVID-19 vaccine series initiation after recent pregnancy

During the rapid deployment of COVID-19 vaccines in 2021, safety concerns may have led some pregnant individuals to postpone vaccination until after giving birth. This study aimed to describe temporal patterns and factors associated with COVID-19 vaccine series initiation after recent pregnancy in Ontario, Canada. Using the provincial birth registry linked with the COVID-19 vaccine database, we identified all individuals who gave birth between January 1 and December 31, 2021, and had not yet been vaccinated by the end of pregnancy, and followed them to June 30, 2022 (follow-up ranged from 6 to 18 months). We used cumulative incidence curves to describe COVID-19 vaccine initiation after pregnancy and assessed associations with sociodemographic, pregnancy-related, and health behavioral factors using Cox proportional hazards regression to estimate adjusted hazard ratios (aHR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI). Among 137,198 individuals who gave birth in 2021, 87,376 (63.7%) remained unvaccinated at the end of pregnancy; of these, 65.0% initiated COVID-19 vaccination by June 30, 2022. Lower maternal age (<25 vs. 30-34 y aHR: 0.73, 95%CI: 0.70-0.77), smoking during pregnancy (vs. nonsmoking aHR: 0.68, 95%CI: 0.65-0.72), lower neighborhood income (lowest quintile vs. highest aHR: 0.79, 95%CI: 0.76-0.83), higher material deprivation (highest quintile vs. lowest aHR: 0.74, 95%CI: 0.70-0.79), and exclusive breastfeeding (vs. other feeding aHR: 0.81, 95%CI: 0.79-0.84) were associated with lower likelihood of vaccine initiation. Among unvaccinated individuals who gave birth in 2021, COVID-19 vaccine initiation after pregnancy reached 65% by June 30, 2022, suggesting persistent issues with vaccine hesitancy and/or access to vaccination in this population.

A population-based study of reported hepatitis C diagnoses from 1998 to 2018 in immigrants and nonimmigrants in Quebec, Canada

Immigrants living in low hepatitis C (HCV) prevalence countries bear a disproportionate HCV burden, but there are limited HCV population-based studies focussed on this population. We estimated rates and trends of reported HCV diagnoses over a 20-year period in Quebec, Canada, to investigate subgroups with the highest rates and changes over time. A population-based cohort of all reported HCV diagnoses in Quebec (1998-2018) linked to health administrative and immigration databases. HCV rates, rate ratios (RR) and trends overall and stratified by immigrant status and country of birth were estimated using Poisson regression. Among 38,348 HCV diagnoses, 14% occurred in immigrants, a median of 7.5 years after arrival. The average annual HCV rate/100,000 decreased for immigrants and nonimmigrants, but the risk (RR) among immigrants increased over the study period [35.7 vs. 34.5 (RR = 1.03) and 18.4 vs. 12.7 (1.45) between 1998-2008 and 2009-2018]. Immigrants from middle-income Europe & Central Asia [55.8 (RR = 4.39)], sub-Saharan Africa [51.7 (RR = 4.06)] and South Asia [32.8 (RR = 2.58)] had the highest rates between 2009 and 2018. Annual HCV rates decreased more slowly among immigrants vs. nonimmigrants (-5.9% vs. -8.9%, p < 0.001), resulting in a 2.5-fold (9%-21%) increase in the proportion of HCV diagnoses among immigrants (1998-2018). The slower decline in HCV rates among immigrants over the study period highlights the need for targeted screening for this population, particularly those from sub-Saharan Africa, Asia and middle-income Europe. These data can inform micro-elimination efforts in Canada and other low-HCV-prevalence countries.

Effectiveness of Three Doses of mRNA COVID-19 Vaccines in the Hemodialysis Population during the Omicron Period

BACKGROUND

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccine effectiveness studies in the hemodialysis population have demonstrated that two doses of mRNA COVID-19 vaccines are effective against severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection and severe complications when Alpha and Delta were predominant variants of concern. Vaccine effectiveness after a third dose versus two doses for preventing SARS-CoV-2 infection and severe COVID-19 in the hemodialysis population against Omicron is not known.

METHODS

We conducted a retrospective cohort study in Ontario, Canada, between December 1, 2021, and February 28, 2022, in the maintenance hemodialysis population who had received two versus three doses of mRNA COVID-19 vaccines. COVID-19 vaccination, SARS-CoV-2 infection, and related hospitalization and death were determined from provincial databases. The primary outcome was the first RT-PCR confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection, and the secondary outcome was a SARS-CoV-2-related severe outcome, defined as either hospitalization or death.

RESULTS

A total of 8457 individuals receiving in-center hemodialysis were included. At study initiation, 2334 (28%) individuals received three doses, which increased to 7468 (88%) individuals by the end of the study period. The adjusted hazard ratios (aHR) for SARS-CoV-2 infection (aHR, 0.58; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.50 to 0.67) and severe outcomes (hospitalization or death) (aHR, 0.40; 95% CI, 0.28 to 0.56) were lower after three versus two doses of mRNA vaccine. Prior infection, independent of vaccine status, was associated with a lower risk of reinfection, with an aHR of 0.44 (95% CI, 0.27 to 0.73).

CONCLUSIONS

Three-dose mRNA COVID-19 vaccination was associated with lower incidence of SARS-CoV-2 infection and severe SARS-CoV-2-related outcomes during the Omicron period compared with two doses.

Assessing COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness against Omicron subvariants: Report from a meeting of the World Health Organization

Emerging in November 2021, the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant of concern exhibited marked immune evasion resulting in reduced vaccine effectiveness against SARS-CoV-2 infection and symptomatic disease. Most vaccine effectiveness data on Omicron are derived from the first Omicron subvariant, BA.1, which caused large waves of infection in many parts of the world within a short period of time. BA.1, however, was replaced by BA.2 within months, and later by BA.4 and BA.5 (BA.4/5). These later Omicron subvariants exhibited additional mutations in the spike protein of the virus, leading to speculation that they might result in even lower vaccine effectiveness. To address this question, the World Health Organization hosted a virtual meeting on December 6, 2022, to review available evidence for vaccine effectiveness against the major Omicron subvariants up to that date. Data were presented from South Africa, the United Kingdom, the United States, and Canada, as well as the results of a review and meta-regression of studies that evaluated the duration of the vaccine effectiveness for multiple Omicron subvariants. Despite heterogeneity of results and wide confidence intervals in some studies, the majority of studies showed vaccine effectiveness tended to be lower against BA.2 and especially against BA.4/5, compared to BA.1, with perhaps faster waning against severe disease caused by BA.4/5 after a booster dose. The interpretation of these results was discussed and both immunological factors (i.e., more immune escape with BA.4/5) and methodological issues (e.g., biases related to differences in the timing of subvariant circulation) were possible explanations for the findings. COVID-19 vaccines still provide some protection against infection and symptomatic disease from all Omicron subvariants for at least several months, with greater and more durable protection against severe disease.

Differential Patterns by Area-Level Social Determinants of Health in Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19)-Related Mortality and Non-COVID-19 Mortality: A Population-Based Study of 11.8 Million People in Ontario, Canada

BACKGROUND

Social determinants of health (SDOH) have been associated with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outcomes. We examined patterns in COVID-19-related mortality by SDOH and compared these patterns to those for non-COVID-19 mortality.

METHODS

Residents of Ontario, Canada, aged ≥20 years were followed from 1 March 2020 to 2 March 2021. COVID-19-related death was defined as death within 30 days following or 7 days prior to a positive COVID-19 test. Area-level SDOH from the 2016 census included median household income; proportion with diploma or higher educational attainment; proportion essential workers, racially minoritized groups, recent immigrants, apartment buildings, and high-density housing; and average household size. We examined associations between SDOH and COVID-19-related mortality, and non-COVID-19 mortality using cause-specific hazard models.

RESULTS

Of 11 810 255 individuals, we observed 3880 COVID-19-related deaths and 88 107 non-COVID-19 deaths. After accounting for demographics, baseline health, and other area-level SDOH, the following were associated with increased hazards of COVID-19-related death (hazard ratio [95% confidence interval]: lower income (1.30 [1.04-1.62]), lower educational attainment (1.27 [1.07-1.52]), higher proportions essential workers (1.28 [1.05-1.57]), racially minoritized groups (1.42 [1.08-1.87]), apartment buildings (1.25 [1.07-1.46]), and large vs medium household size (1.30 [1.12-1.50]). Areas with higher proportion racially minoritized groups were associated with a lower hazard of non-COVID-19 mortality (0.88 [0.84-0.92]).

CONCLUSIONS

Area-level SDOH are associated with COVID-19-related mortality after accounting for demographic and clinical factors. COVID-19 has reversed patterns of lower non-COVID-19 mortality among racially minoritized groups. Pandemic responses should include strategies to address disproportionate risks and inequitable coverage of preventive interventions associated with SDOH.

Evaluating the impact of statin use on influenza vaccine effectiveness and influenza infection in older adults

BACKGROUND

Older adults are recommended to receive influenza vaccination annually and many use statins. Statins have immunomodulatory properties that might modify influenza vaccine effectiveness (VE) and alter influenza infection risk.

METHODS

Using the test-negative design and linked laboratory and health administrative databases in Ontario, Canada, we estimated VE against laboratory-confirmed influenza among community-dwelling statin users and non-users aged ≥66 years during the 2010-2011 to 2018-2019 influenza seasons. We also estimated the odds ratio (OR) for influenza infection between statin users and non-users by vaccination status.

RESULTS

Among subjects tested for influenza across the 9 seasons, 54,243 had continuous statin exposure prior to testing and 48,469 were deemed unexposed. VE against laboratory-confirmed influenza was similar between statin users and non-users (17% [95%CI, 13-20%] and 17% [95%CI, 13-21%] respectively; test for interaction, p=0.87). In both vaccinated and unvaccinated subjects, statin users had higher odds of laboratory-confirmed influenza than non-users (OR for vaccinated =1.15; 95%CI, 1.10-1.21; OR for unvaccinated=1.15; 95%CI, 1.10-1.20). These findings were consistent by mean daily dose and statin type. VE did not differ between users and non-users of other cardiovascular drugs, except for beta-blockers. We did not observe that vaccinated and unvaccinated users of these drugs had increased odds of influenza, except for unvaccinated beta-blocker users.

CONCLUSIONS

Influenza VE did not differ between statin users and non-users. Statin use was associated with increased odds of laboratory-confirmed influenza in vaccinated and unvaccinated subjects, but these associations might be impacted by residual confounding.

COVID-19 Vaccine Effectiveness Against Omicron Infection and Hospitalization

OBJECTIVES

This study aimed to provide real-world evidence on coronavirus disease 2019 vaccine effectiveness (VE) against symptomatic infection and severe outcomes caused by Omicron in children aged 5 to 11 years.

METHODS

We used the test-negative study design and linked provincial databases to estimate BNT162b2 vaccine effectiveness against symptomatic infection and severe outcomes caused by Omicron in children aged 5 to 11 years between January 2 and August 27, 2022 in Ontario. We used multivariable logistic regression to estimate VE by time since the latest dose, compared with unvaccinated children, and we evaluated VE by dosing interval.

RESULTS

We included 6284 test-positive cases and 8389 test-negative controls. VE against symptomatic infection declined from 24% (95% confidence interval [CI], 8% to 36%) 14 to 29 days after a first dose and 66% (95% CI, 60% to 71%) 7 to 29 days after 2 doses. VE was higher for children with dosing intervals of ≥56 days (57% [95% CI, 51% to 62%]) than 15 to 27 days (12% [95% CI, -11% to 30%]) and 28 to 41 days (38% [95% CI, 28% to 47%]), but appeared to wane over time for all dosing interval groups. VE against severe outcomes was 94% (95% CI, 57% to 99%) 7 to 29 days after 2 doses and declined to 57% (95%CI, -20% to 85%) after ≥120 days.

CONCLUSIONS

In children aged 5 to 11 years, 2 doses of BNT162b2 provide moderate protection against symptomatic Omicron infection within 4 months of vaccination and good protection against severe outcomes. Protection wanes more rapidly for infection than severe outcomes. Overall, longer dosing intervals confer higher protection against symptomatic infection, however protection decreases and becomes similar to shorter dosing interval starting 90 days after vaccination.

Temporal trends and determinants of COVID-19 vaccine coverage and series initiation during pregnancy in Ontario, Canada, December 2020 to December 2021: A population-based retrospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

Population-based COVID-19 vaccine coverage estimates among pregnant individuals are limited. We assessed temporal patterns in vaccine coverage (≥1 dose before or during pregnancy) and evaluated factors associated with vaccine series initiation (receiving dose 1 during pregnancy) in Ontario, Canada.

METHODS

We linked the provincial birth registry with COVID-19 vaccination records from December 14, 2020 to December 31, 2021 and assessed coverage rates among all pregnant individuals by month, age, and neighborhood sociodemographic characteristics. Among individuals who gave birth since April 2021-when pregnant people were prioritized for vaccination-we assessed associations between sociodemographic, behavioral, and pregnancy-related factors with vaccine series initiation using multivariable regression to estimate adjusted risk ratios (aRR) and risk differences (aRD) with 95% confidence intervals (CI).

RESULTS

Among 221,190 pregnant individuals, vaccine coverage increased to 71.2% by December 2021. Gaps in coverage across categories of age and sociodemographic characteristics decreased over time, but did not disappear. Lower vaccine series initiation was associated with lower age (<25 vs. 30-34 years: aRR 0.53, 95%CI 0.51-0.56), smoking (vs. non-smoking: 0.64, 0.61-0.67), no first trimester prenatal care visit (vs. visit: 0.80, 0.77-0.84), and residing in neighborhoods with the lowest income (vs. highest: 0.69, 0.67-0.71). Vaccine series initiation was marginally higher among individuals with pre-existing medical conditions (vs. no conditions: 1.07, 1.04-1.10).

CONCLUSIONS

COVID-19 vaccine coverage among pregnant individuals remained lower than in the general population, and there was lower vaccine initiation by multiple characteristics.

Estimated Effectiveness of Postpartum Maternal Messenger RNA COVID-19 Vaccination Against Delta and Omicron SARS-CoV-2 Infection and Hospitalization in Infants Younger Than 6 Months

This case-control study estimates the effectiveness of maternal postpartum messenger RNA (mRNA) COVID-19 vaccination against Delta and Omicron SARS-CoV-2 infection and hospitalization in infants younger than 6 months.

Myocarditis or Pericarditis Events After BNT162b2 Vaccination in Individuals Aged 12 to 17 Years in Ontario, Canada

Importance

The risk of myocarditis or pericarditis after COVID-19 messenger RNA vaccines varies by age and sex, and there is some evidence to suggest increasing risk with shorter intervals between dose 1 and 2 (ie, interdose interval).

Objective

To estimate the incidence of reported myocarditis or pericarditis after BNT162b2 vaccine among adolescents and to describe the clinical information associated with these events.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This was a population-based cohort study using passive vaccine safety surveillance data linked to the provincial COVID-19 vaccine registry. Included in the study were all adolescents aged 12 to 17 years in Ontario, Canada, who received 1 or more doses of BNT162b2 vaccine between December 14, 2020, and November 21, 2021, and reported an episode of myocarditis or pericarditis. Data were analyzed from December 15, 2021, to April 22, 2022.

Exposure

Receipt of BNT162b2 (Comirnaty [Pfizer-BioNTech]) vaccine.

Main Outcomes and Measure

Reported incidence of myocarditis or pericarditis meeting level 1 to 3 of the Brighton Collaboration case definition per 100 000 doses of BNT162b2 administered by age group (12-15 years vs 16-17 years), sex, dose number, and interdose interval. All clinical information associated with symptoms, health care usage, diagnostic test results, and treatment at the time of the acute event were summarized.

Results

There were approximately 1.65 million doses of BNT162b2 administered and 77 reports of myocarditis or pericarditis among those aged 12 to 17 years, which met the inclusion criteria during the study period. Of the 77 adolescents (mean [SD] age, 15.0 [1.7] years; 63 male individuals [81.8%]), 51 (66.2%) developed myocarditis or pericarditis after dose 2 of BNT162b2. Overall, 74 individuals (96.1%) with an event were assessed in the emergency department, and 34 (44.2%) were hospitalized (median [IQR] length of stay, 1 [1-2] day). The majority of adolescents (57 [74.0%]) were treated with nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs only, and 11 (14.3%) required no treatment. The highest reported incidence was observed among male adolescents aged 16 to 17 years after dose 2 (15.7 per 100 000; 95% CI, 9.7-23.9). Among those aged 16 to 17 years, the reporting rate was highest in those with a short (ie, ≤30 days) interdose interval (21.3 per 100 000; 95% CI, 11.0-37.2).

Conclusions and Relevance

Results of this cohort study suggest that there was variation in the reported incidence of myocarditis or pericarditis after BNT162b2 vaccine among adolescent age groups. However, the risk of these events after vaccination remains very rare and should be considered in relation to the benefits of COVID-19 vaccination.

Effectiveness of Coronavirus Disease 2019 Vaccines Against Hospitalization and Death in Canada: A Multiprovincial, Test-Negative Design Study

BACKGROUND

A major goal of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccination is to prevent severe outcomes (hospitalizations and deaths). We estimated the effectiveness of messenger RNA (mRNA) and ChAdOx1 COVID-19 vaccines against severe outcomes in 4 Canadian provinces between December 2020 and September 2021.

METHODS

We conducted this multiprovincial, retrospective, test-negative study among community-dwelling adults aged ≥18 years in Ontario, Quebec, British Columbia, and Manitoba using linked provincial databases and a common study protocol. Multivariable logistic regression was used to estimate province-specific vaccine effectiveness against COVID-19 hospitalization and/or death. Estimates were pooled using random-effects models.

RESULTS

We included 2 508 296 tested participants, with 31 776 COVID-19 hospitalizations and 5842 deaths. Vaccine effectiveness was 83% after a first dose and 98% after a second dose against both hospitalization and death (separately). Against severe outcomes, effectiveness was 87% (95% confidence interval [CI], 71%-94%) ≥84 days after a first dose of mRNA vaccine, increasing to 98% (95% CI, 96%-99%) ≥112 days after a second dose. Vaccine effectiveness against severe outcomes for ChAdOx1 was 88% (95% CI, 75%-94%) ≥56 days after a first dose, increasing to 97% (95% CI, 91%-99%) ≥56 days after a second dose. Lower 1-dose effectiveness was observed for adults aged ≥80 years and those with comorbidities, but effectiveness became comparable after a second dose. Two doses of vaccines provided very high protection for both homologous and heterologous schedules and against Alpha, Gamma, and Delta variants.

CONCLUSIONS

Two doses of mRNA or ChAdOx1 vaccine provide excellent protection against severe outcomes.

Maternal mRNA covid-19 vaccination during pregnancy and delta or omicron infection or hospital admission in infants: test negative design study

OBJECTIVE

To estimate the effectiveness of maternal mRNA covid-19 vaccination during pregnancy against delta and omicron severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection and hospital admission in infants.

DESIGN

Test negative design study.

SETTING

Community and hospital testing in Ontario, Canada.

PARTICIPANTS

Infants younger than six months of age, born between 7 May 2021 and 31 March 2022, who were tested for SARS-CoV-2 between 7 May 2021 and 5 September 2022.

INTERVENTION

Maternal mRNA covid-19 vaccination during pregnancy.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Laboratory confirmed delta or omicron infection or hospital admission of the infant. Multivariable logistic regression estimated vaccine effectiveness, with adjustments for clinical and sociodemographic characteristics associated with vaccination and infection.

RESULTS

8809 infants met eligibility criteria, including 99 delta cases (4365 controls) and 1501 omicron cases (4847 controls). Infant vaccine effectiveness from two maternal doses was 95% (95% confidence interval 88% to 98%) against delta infection and 97% (73% to 100%) against infant hospital admission due to delta and 45% (37% to 53%) against omicron infection and 53% (39% to 64%) against hospital admission due to omicron. Vaccine effectiveness for three doses was 73% (61% to 80%) against omicron infection and 80% (64% to 89%) against hospital admission due to omicron. Vaccine effectiveness for two doses against infant omicron infection was highest with the second dose in the third trimester (53% (42% to 62%)) compared with the first (47% (31% to 59%)) or second (37% (24% to 47%)) trimesters. Vaccine effectiveness for two doses against infant omicron infection decreased from 57% (44% to 66%) between birth and eight weeks to 40% (21% to 54%) after 16 weeks of age.

CONCLUSIONS

Maternal covid-19 vaccination with a second dose during pregnancy was highly effective against delta and moderately effective against omicron infection and hospital admission in infants during the first six months of life. A third vaccine dose bolstered protection against omicron. Effectiveness for two doses was highest with maternal vaccination in the third trimester, and effectiveness decreased in infants beyond eight weeks of age.

Developing a reference standard for pertussis by applying a stratified sampling strategy to electronic medical record data

PURPOSE

Pertussis surveillance remains essential in Canada, but ascertainment bias limits the accuracy of surveillance data. Introducing other sources to improve detection has highlighted the importance of validation. However, challenges arise due to low prevalence, and oversampling suspected cases can introduce partial verification bias. The aim of this study was to build a reference standard for pertussis validation studies that provides adequate analytic precision and minimizes bias.

METHODS

We used a stratified strategy to sample the reference standard from a primary care electronic medical record cohort. We incorporated abstractor notes into definite, possible, ruled-out, and no mention of pertussis classifications which were based on surveillance case definitions.

RESULTS

We abstracted eight hundred records from the cohort of 404,922. There were 208 (26%) definite and 261 (32.6%) possible prevalent pertussis cases. Classifications demonstrated a wide variety of case severities. Abstraction reliability was moderate to substantial based on Cohen's kappa and raw percent agreement.

CONCLUSIONS

When conducting validation studies for pertussis and other low prevalence diseases, this stratified sampling strategy can be used to develop a reference standard using limited resources. This approach mitigates verification and spectrum bias while providing sufficient precision and incorporating a range of case severities.

The epidemiology and healthcare costs of community-acquired pneumonia in Ontario, Canada: a population-based cohort study

OBJECTIVES

The aim of the present study was to determine incidence-based short- and long-term healthcare costs attributable to community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) from the healthcare payer perspective in Ontario, Canada.

METHODS

We conducted a retrospective population-based matched cohort study of residents in Ontario, Canada using health administrative data. We identified subjects with an incident episode of CAP (exposed subjects) between 1 January 2012 and 31 December 2014. The index date of each episode was based on the first inpatient or outpatient claim for pneumonia. Exposed subjects were matched without replacement to unexposed subjects from the general population using hard and propensity score matching on age, sex, income quintile, rural residence, comorbidities, and healthcare costs prior to index date. Attributable costs represented the mean difference in costs between the exposed subjects and their matched pairs.

RESULTS

We identified 692,090 subjects with at least one episode of CAP between 1 January 2012 and 31 December 2014. Adults aged 65 years and older had the highest annual incidence rate of 50.1 episodes per 1,000 person-years, while adults aged 18-64 years and children (aged 0-17) had incidence rates of 12.9 and 24.7 episodes per 1,000 person-years, respectively. The majority of episodes involved care exclusively in the outpatient setting (92.6%), with most of these episodes involving a single physician visit. The mean attributable costs were $1,595 (95% CI: $1,572-$1,616) per outpatient CAP episode and $12,576 (95% CI: $12.392-$12,761) per inpatient CAP episode. Attributable costs were significantly higher for adult subjects and those with time spent in the intensive care unit. Alternative case definitions yielded different results, although demonstrated the same overall trends across groups.

CONCLUSION

CAP is associated with substantially increased acute and long-term healthcare costs compared to unexposed subjects. This study highlights the burden of CAP in both the inpatient and outpatient setting, and will serve to inform strategic healthcare planning for future interventions and healthcare programs.

Burden of Severe Illness Associated With Laboratory-Confirmed Influenza in Adults Aged 50-64 Years, 2010-2011 to 2016-2017

Background

Understanding the burden of influenza is necessary to optimize recommendations for influenza vaccination. We describe the epidemiology of severe influenza in 50- to 64-year-old residents of metropolitan Toronto and Peel region, Canada, over 7 influenza seasons.

Methods

Prospective population-based surveillance for hospitalization associated with laboratory-confirmed influenza was conducted from September 2010 to August 2017. Conditions increasing risk of influenza complications were as defined by Canada's National Advisory Committee on Immunization. Age-specific prevalence of medical conditions was estimated using Ontario health administrative data. Population rates were estimated using Statistics Canada data.

Results

Over 7 seasons, 1228 hospitalizations occurred in patients aged 50-64 years: 40% due to A(H3N2), 30% A(H1N1), and 22% influenza B. The average annual hospitalization rate was 15.6, 20.9, and 33.2 per 100 000 in patients aged 50-54, 55-59, and 60-64 years, respectively; average annual mortality was 0.9/100 000. Overall, 33% of patients had received current season influenza vaccine; 963 (86%) had ≥1 underlying condition increasing influenza complication risk. The most common underlying medical conditions were chronic lung disease (38%) and diabetes mellitus (31%); 25% of patients were immunocompromised. The average annual hospitalization rate was 6.1/100 000 in those without and 41/100 000 in those with any underlying condition, and highest in those with renal disease or immunocompromise (138 and 281 per 100 000, respectively). The case fatality rate in hospitalized patients was 4.4%; median length of stay was 4 days (interquartile range, 2-8 days).

Conclusions

The burden of severe influenza in 50- to 64-year-olds remains significant despite our universal publicly funded vaccination program. These data may assist in improving estimates of the cost-effectiveness of new strategies to reduce this burden.

Effectiveness and Duration of Protection of a Fourth Dose of COVID-19 mRNA Vaccine among Long-Term Care Residents in Ontario, Canada

We estimated the effectiveness of a fourth dose of mRNA COVID-19 vaccine against Omicron infections and severe outcomes over time among long-term care residents in Ontario, Canada. Fourth doses provide additional protection against Omicron-related outcomes, but the protection wanes over time, with more waning seen against infection than severe outcomes.

Coronavirus disease 2019 vaccine effectiveness among a population-based cohort of people living with HIV

OBJECTIVE

People with HIV were underrepresented in coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccine clinical trials. We estimated vaccine effectiveness (VE) against severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection for the BNT162b2, mRNA-1273, and ChAdOx1 vaccines among a population-based cohort of people with HIV in Ontario, Canada.

DESIGN

Test-negative design.

METHODS

We identified people with HIV aged ≥19 years who were tested for SARS-CoV-2 by RT-PCR between December 14, 2020 (first availability of COVID-19 vaccines) and November 21, 2021 (pre-Omicron circulation). Outcomes included any infection, symptomatic infection, and COVID-19-related hospitalization/death. We compared the odds of vaccination between test-positive cases and test-negative controls using multivariable logistic regression with adjustment for age, sex, region, calendar time, SARS-CoV-2 test histories, influenza vaccination, comorbidities, and neighborhood-level socio-economic status. VE was derived as (1 - adjusted odds ratio) × 100%.

RESULTS

Among 21 023 adults living with HIV, there were 801 (8.3%) test-positive cases and 8,879 (91.7%) test-negative controls. 20.1% cases and 47.8% of controls received ≥1 COVID-19 vaccine dose; among two-dose recipients, 93.4% received ≥1 mRNA dose. Two-dose VE ≥7 days before specimen collection was 82% (95% confidence interval [CI] = 74-87%) against any infection, 94% (95% CI = 82-98%) against symptomatic infection, and 97% (95% CI = 85-100%) against hospitalization/death. Against any infection, VE declined from 86% (95% CI = 77-92%) within 7-59 days after the second dose to 66% (95% CI = -15-90%) after ≥180 days; we did not observe evidence of waning protection for other outcomes.

CONCLUSION

Two doses of COVID-19 vaccine offered substantial protection against symptomatic illness and hospitalization/death in people with HIV prior to the emergence of the Omicron variant. Our findings do not support a broad conclusion that COVID-19 VE is lower among people with HIV in populations that, for the most part, are attending HIV care, taking antiretroviral medication, and are virally suppressed.

Chronic Exposure to Fine Particulate Matter Increases Mortality Through Pathways of Metabolic and Cardiovascular Disease: Insights From a Large Mediation Analysis

Background

Long‐term exposure to outdoor fine particulate matter (PM 2.5 ) is the leading environmental risk factor for premature mortality worldwide. Characterizing important pathways through which PM 2.5 increases individuals' mortality risk can clarify the PM 2.5 –mortality relationship and identify possible points of interventions. Recent evidence has linked PM 2.5 to the onset of diabetes and cardiovascular disease, but to what extent these associations contribute to the effect of PM 2.5 on mortality remains poorly understood.

Methods and Results

We conducted a population‐based cohort study to investigate how the effect of PM 2.5 on nonaccidental mortality is mediated by its impacts on incident diabetes, acute myocardial infarction, and stroke. Our study population comprised ≈200 000 individuals aged 20 to 90 years who participated in population‐based health surveys in Ontario, Canada, from 1996 to 2014. Follow‐up extended until December 2017. Using causal mediation analyses with Aalen additive hazards models, we decomposed the total effect of PM 2.5 on mortality into a direct effect and several path‐specific indirect effects mediated by diabetes, each cardiovascular event, or both combined. A series of sensitivity analyses were also conducted. After adjusting for various individual‐ and neighborhood‐level covariates, we estimated that for every 1000 adults, each 10 μg/m 3 increase in PM 2.5 was associated with ≈2 incident cases of diabetes, ≈1 major cardiovascular event (acute myocardial infarction and stroke combined), and ≈2 deaths annually. Among PM 2.5 ‐related deaths, 31.7% (95% CI, 17.2%–53.2%) were attributable to diabetes and major cardiovascular events in relation to PM 2.5 . Specifically, 4.5% were explained by PM 2.5 ‐induced diabetes, 22.8% by PM 2.5 ‐induced major cardiovascular events, and 4.5% through their interaction.

Conclusions

This study suggests that a significant portion of the estimated effect of long‐term exposure to PM 2.5 on deaths can be attributed to its effect on diabetes and cardiovascular diseases, highlighting the significance of PM 2.5 on deteriorating cardiovascular health. Our findings should raise awareness among professionals that improving metabolic and cardiovascular health may reduce mortality burden in areas with higher exposure to air pollution.