Probabilistic modelling techniques in dietary exposure assessment: application on the risk assessment of cadmium for Austrian adults

Probabilistic exposure and risk assessment of chemical hazards in the diet have increasingly gained ground in recent years as a pragmatic approach for the approximation of reality. This work presents the outcomes of a project which aimed at applying probabilistic techniques for basic modelling of chronic dietary exposure to food contaminants following EFSA guidance. These techniques, based on Monte Carlo Risk Assessment (MCRA) software and on the programming language R, were employed for the risk assessment of cadmium for Austrian adults, enabling the validation and the critical comparison of the two approaches. Harmonisation and optimisation of procedures, refinement of exposure assessment skills and confidence in the results were the main benefits. Data amount and validity were identified as critical parameters, influencing the precision of the results. Cadmium was selected as a case study due to its toxicological properties, its ubiquitous presence in food and the availability of Austrian occurrence data. Similar exposure and risk estimates were generated through MCRA and R in alternative optimistic and pessimistic exposure scenarios, suggesting low levels of concern, except for vegetarians, whose upper tail exposures are close to the established Tolerable Weekly Intake. However, as occurrence data gaps have been identified as the major element of uncertainty, the estimated exposure and risk levels are characterised as underestimated. Grains and grain-based products, potatoes and leafy vegetables are the main contributors to the intake. The results will contribute to risk management and to a future refinement of the assessment.

Toxicological approaches for the quantitative inhalation risk assessment of toxic metals from tobacco smoke: application on the deterministic and probabilistic inhalation risk assessment of cadmium for Austrian smokers

OBJECTIVE

The objective of this study was the assessment of risks from inhalation exposure of Austrian smokers to cadmium through established toxicological approaches with emphasis on the exposure assessment component, which is challenging regarding the actual amount of metal that is inhaled and the simulation of the smoking pattern.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Exposure assessment comprised an estimation of the proportion of cadmium inhaled through smoking and actual occurrence data in tobacco products and survey smoking habits, which were integrated in alternative scenarios through a deterministic and a probabilistic Monte Carlo simulation method. Risks were characterized through the comparison of the exposure with health-based guidance values, as well as through the assessment of the excess lifetime cancer risk (ELCR), the non-cancer hazard quotient (NCHQ), and the margin of exposure (MOE). The strengths, the uncertainties, and the limitations of the different methodologies were discussed.

RESULTS AND DISCUSSION

Upper exposures are close or exceed the Permitted Daily Exposure. Respiratory ELCRs are unacceptable compared to the benchmark range of 1.0E-06 to 1.0E-04. Renal and respiratory NCHQs exceed the target value of 1.0 by 3- to 17-fold. MOEs are not protective enough for cancer and non-cancer effects. The amount of cadmium that reaches the lung is a key source of uncertainty.

CONCLUSION

Probabilistic estimates provide a refined capture of the actual inhalation exposure. Risk estimates and gender and age profiles are alarming, especially for young smokers. Application of toxicological approaches, combined with realistic assessment of the inhalation exposure levels, can support risk communication and management.

A tiered approach to cumulative risk assessment for reproductive and developmental toxicity of food contaminants for the austrian population using the modified Reference Point Index (mRPI)

Through our daily diet, we are exposed to a variety of food contaminants. Yet, assessing the cumulative health risk of chemical mixtures remains a challenge. Using a recently developed method, the modified Reference Point Index (mRPI), the cumulative risks posed by contaminant mixtures were assessed for their effects on reproduction and development. Since these effects can be quite diverse, a tiered approach was adopted to elucidate the risks at a more detailed level based on specific toxicological endpoints. An additional analysis was performed using the modified Maximum Cumulative Ratio (mMCR), which provides the determination of risk-dominating substances in the mixture. Our method represents a novel useful tool to screen and prioritise contaminant mixtures regarding their potential health risks. We found, that in the majority of the calculated scenarios a single substance dominates the cumulative risks. Lead was found to be the primary factor for adverse effects on reproduction and neuronal development of children. Perchlorate was identified as the most prominent risk factor for child development in generalCumulative risks of trichothecenes were dominated by deoxynivalenol. Concerning the impact on pre- and neonatal development, the co-exposure of several substances resulted in increased risks, with none of the considered contaminants dominating substantially.

Dietary exposure to furan of the Austrian population

In the period from 2007 to 2017 furan levels of foods were analysed by the Austrian Agency for Health and Food Safety. Based on these analytical data and the Austrian consumption data the dietary exposure of children and adults to furan was estimated by using a deterministic approach. For the adult population the mean and 95^th percentile dietary exposures to furan were estimated at 0.31 µg/kg bodyweight per day and at 0.72 µg/kg bodyweight per day, respectively. The mean dietary exposure of children was estimated at 0.18 µg/kg bodyweight per day and is thus only about half as high as for Austrian adults. At the 95^th percentile the dietary exposure of children was estimated at 0.49 µg/kg bodyweight per day. The main contributor to the total dietary exposure for adults is coffee followed by convenience products and for children the main contributors are grain products as well as convenience products, bread and snacks. Based on the BMDL₁₀ of 0.064 mg/kg bodyweight per day for the development of cholangiofibrosis, the MOE-calculation revealed that the current levels of dietary exposure to furan are of concern for Austrian adult high consumers. The MOE-calculation, based on the BMDL₁₀ of 1.31 mg/kg bodyweight per day for the development of hepatocellular adenomas, indicated a health concern for Austrian children and adults.

Modified Reference Point Index (mRPI) and a decision tree for deriving uncertainty factors: A practical approach to cumulative risk assessment of food contaminant mixtures

Risk assessment of chemical mixtures remains a challenging task in all areas of food and consumer safety. So far, no general method has been developed that is best suited to several subject areas (e.g. food contaminants, additives and supplements, plant protection products). Especially for mixtures of food contaminants sophisticated methods are typically not applicable due to a general lack of complete toxicological data sets. We developed a new approach, the modified Reference Point Index (mRPI), that combines the advantages of the Hazard Index and the Reference Point Index. Furthermore, we developed a decision tree for the determination of specific uncertainty factors that makes the mRPI an easy to use method for cumulative risk assessment even in a data poor field such as food contaminants. To further characterise the estimated cumulative risks, the Maximum Cumulative Ratio (MCR) was adapted to be applied on the mRPI, and the modified Maximum Cumulative Ratio (mMCR) was established to identify whether the risks are dominated by a single substance. We present two case studies assessing the nephrotoxic and neurotoxic risks for the Austrian population originating from food contaminant mixtures. Calculations could not rule out potential cumulative risks, yet, they seemed to be dominated by single substances.

Antibiotic resistance marker genes as environmental pollutants in GMO-pristine agricultural soils in Austria

Antibiotic resistance genes may be considered as environmental pollutants if anthropogenic emission and manipulations increase their prevalence above usually occurring background levels. The prevalence of aph(3')-IIa/nptII and aph(3')-IIIa/nptIII - frequent marker genes in plant biotechnology conferring resistance to certain aminoglycosides - was determined in Austrian soils from 100 maize and potato fields not yet exposed to but eligible for GMO crop cultivation. Total soil DNA extracts were analysed by nptII/nptIII-specific TaqMan real time PCR. Of all fields 6% were positive for nptII (median: 150 copies/g soil; range: 31-856) and 85% for nptIII (1190 copies/g soil; 13-61600). The copy-number deduced prevalence of nptIII carriers was 14-fold higher compared to nptII. Of the cultivable kanamycin-resistant soil bacteria 1.8% (95% confidence interval: 0-3.3%) were positive for nptIII, none for nptII (0-0.8%). The nptII-load of the studied soils was low rendering nptII a typical candidate as environmental pollutant upon anthropogenic release into these ecosystems.

Prevalence of the aminoglycoside phosphotransferase genes aph(3')-IIIa and aph(3')-IIa in Escherichia coli, Enterococcus faecalis, Enterococcus faecium, Pseudomonas aeruginosa, Salmonella enterica subsp. enterica and Staphylococcus aureus isolates in Austria

The aminoglycoside phosphotransferase aph(3')-IIa primarily inactivates kanamycin and neomycin, whilst aph(3')-IIIa also inactivates amikacin. The aim of this study was to determine the frequency of both resistance genes in major human pathogens to obtain their baseline prevalence in the gene pool of these bacterial populations in Austria. In total, 10 541 Escherichia coli, Enterococcus faecalis, Enterococcus faecium, Pseudomonas aeruginosa, Salmonella enterica subsp. enterica and Staphylococcus aureus isolates were collected representatively without selection bias between 2008 and 2011. Isolates were analysed by aph(3')-IIIa/nptIII- and aph(3')-IIa/nptII-specific TaqMan real-time PCR. For positive strains, MICs using Etests were performed and resistance gene sequences were determined. The overall prevalence of aph(3')-IIIa/nptIII was 1.62 % (95 % confidence interval: 1.38-1.88 %). In Escherichia coli, enterococci, Staphylococcus aureus, P. aeruginosa and Salmonella spp., the aph(3')-IIIa/nptIII prevalence was 0.47 % (0-1.47 %), 37.53 % (32.84-42.40 %), 2.90 % (1.51-5.02 %), 0 % (0-0.32 %) and 0 % (0-0.037 %), respectively. Eleven of a total of 169 carriers showed single-nucleotide polymorphisms in the resistance allele. The overall prevalence of aph(3')-IIa/nptII was 0.0096 % (0-0.046 %). Escherichia coli (0-0.70 %), enterococci (0-0.75 %), Staphylococcus aureus (0-0.73 %) and P. aeruginosa (0-0.32 %) did not carry aph(3')-IIa. A single Salmonella isolate was positive, resulting in an aph(3')-IIa prevalence of 0.013 % (0-0.058 %). aph(3')-IIIa/nptIII carriers were moderately prevalent in the strains tested except for in enterococci, which appeared to be an important reservoir for aph(3')-IIIa. aph(3')-IIa/nptII genes were detected at clinically irrelevant frequencies and played no significant role in the aminoglycoside resistance gene pool during the observation period.