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Hughes TM, Tanley J, Chen H, Schaich CL, Yeboah J, Espeland MA, Lima JAC, Ambale-Venkatesh B, Michos ED, Ding J, Hayden K, Casanova R, Craft S, Rapp SR, Luchsinger JA, Fitzpatrick AL, Heckbert SR, Post WS, Burke GL. Subclinical vascular composites predict clinical cardiovascular disease, stroke, and dementia: The Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA). Atherosclerosis 2024; 392:117521. [PMID: 38552474 DOI: 10.1016/j.atherosclerosis.2024.117521] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/08/2023] [Revised: 02/26/2024] [Accepted: 03/14/2024] [Indexed: 04/09/2024]
Abstract
BACKGROUND AND AIMS Subclinical cardiovascular disease (CVD) measures may reflect biological pathways that contribute to increased risk for coronary heart disease (CHD) events, stroke, and dementia beyond conventional risk scores. METHODS The Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA) followed 6814 participants (45-84 years of age) from baseline in 2000-2002 to 2018 over 6 clinical examinations and annual follow-up interviews. MESA baseline subclinical CVD procedures included: seated and supineblood pressure, coronary calcium scan, radial artery tonometry, and carotid ultrasound. Baseline subclinical CVD measures were transformed into z-scores before factor analysis to derive composite factor scores. Time to clinical event for all-cause CVD, CHD, stroke and ICD code-based dementia events were modeled using Cox proportional hazards models reported as area under the curve (AUC) with 95% Confidence Intervals (95%CI) at 10 and 15 years of follow-up. All models included all factor scores together, and adjustment for conventional risk scores for global CVD, stroke, and dementia. RESULTS After factor selection, 24 subclinical measures aggregated into four distinct factors representing: blood pressure, atherosclerosis, arteriosclerosis, and cardiac factors. Each factor significantly predicted time to CVD events and dementia at 10 and 15 years independent of each other and conventional risk scores. Subclinical vascular composites of atherosclerosis and arteriosclerosis best predicted time to clinical events of CVD, CHD, stroke, and dementia. These results were consistent across sex and racial and ethnic groups. CONCLUSIONS Subclinical vascular composites of atherosclerosis and arteriosclerosis may be useful biomarkers to inform the vascular pathways contributing to events of CVD, CHD, stroke, and dementia.
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Affiliation(s)
- Timothy M Hughes
- Department of Internal Medicine, Section on Gerontology and Geriatric Medicine, Wake Forest University School of Medicine, Winston-Salem, NC, United States.
| | - Jordan Tanley
- Department of Internal Medicine, Section on Gerontology and Geriatric Medicine, Wake Forest University School of Medicine, Winston-Salem, NC, United States
| | - Haiying Chen
- Department of Biostatistics and Data Science, Division of Public Health Sciences, Wake Forest University School of Medicine, Winston-Salem, NC, United States
| | - Christopher L Schaich
- Department of Surgery, Hypertension and Vascular Research Center, Wake Forest University School of Medicine, Winston-Salem, NC, United States
| | - Joseph Yeboah
- Department of Internal Medicine, Section on Cardiovascular Medicine, Wake Forest University School of Medicine, Winston-Salem, NC, United States
| | - Mark A Espeland
- Department of Biostatistics and Data Science, Division of Public Health Sciences, Wake Forest University School of Medicine, Winston-Salem, NC, United States
| | - Joao A C Lima
- Department of Medicine, Division of Cardiology, Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine, Baltimore, MD, United States
| | - Bharath Ambale-Venkatesh
- Department of Medicine, Division of Cardiology, Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine, Baltimore, MD, United States
| | - Erin D Michos
- Department of Medicine, Division of Cardiology, Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine, Baltimore, MD, United States
| | - Jingzhong Ding
- Department of Internal Medicine, Section on Gerontology and Geriatric Medicine, Wake Forest University School of Medicine, Winston-Salem, NC, United States
| | - Kathleen Hayden
- Department of Social Sciences and Health Policy, Division of Public Health Sciences, Wake Forest University School of Medicine, Winston-Salem, NC, United States
| | - Ramon Casanova
- Department of Biostatistics and Data Science, Division of Public Health Sciences, Wake Forest University School of Medicine, Winston-Salem, NC, United States; Department of Psychiatry and Behavioral Medicine, Wake Forest University School of Medicine, Winston-Salem, NC, United States
| | - Suzanne Craft
- Department of Internal Medicine, Section on Gerontology and Geriatric Medicine, Wake Forest University School of Medicine, Winston-Salem, NC, United States
| | - Stephen R Rapp
- Department of Psychiatry and Behavioral Medicine, Wake Forest University School of Medicine, Winston-Salem, NC, United States
| | - José A Luchsinger
- Departments of Medicine and Epidemiology, Columbia University Medical Center, New York, NY, United States
| | | | - Susan R Heckbert
- Department of Epidemiology, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, United States
| | - Wendy S Post
- Department of Medicine, Division of Cardiology, Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine, Baltimore, MD, United States
| | - Gregory L Burke
- Division of Public Health Sciences, Wake Forest University School of Medicine, Winston-Salem, NC, United States
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Hughes TM, Tanley J, Chen H, Schaich CL, Yeboah J, Espeland MA, Lima JAC, Ambale-Venkatesh B, Michos ED, Ding J, Hayden K, Casanova R, Craft S, Rapp SR, Luchsinger JA, Fitzpatrick AL, Heckbert SR, Post WS, Burke GL. Subclinical Vascular Composites Predict Clinical Cardiovascular Disease, Stroke, and Dementia: The Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA). medRxiv 2023:2023.05.01.23289364. [PMID: 37205504 PMCID: PMC10187443 DOI: 10.1101/2023.05.01.23289364] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Abstract] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 05/21/2023]
Abstract
Background Subclinical cardiovascular disease (CVD) measures may reflect biological pathways that contribute to increased risk for coronary heart disease (CHD) events, stroke, and dementia beyond conventional risk scores. Methods The Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA) followed 6,814 participants (45-84 years of age) from baseline in 2000-2002 to 2018 over 6 clinical examinations and annual follow-up interviews. MESA baseline subclinical CVD procedures included: seated and supine blood pressure, coronary calcium scan, radial artery tonometry, and carotid ultrasound. Baseline subclinical CVD measures were transformed into z-scores before factor analysis to derive composite factor scores. Time to clinical event for all CVD, CHD, stroke and ICD code-based dementia events were modeled using Cox proportional hazards models reported as area under the curve (AUC) with 95% Confidence Intervals (95%CI) at 10 and 15 years of follow-up. All models included all factor scores together and adjustment for conventional risk scores for global CVD, stroke, and dementia. Results After factor selection, 24 subclinical measures aggregated into four distinct factors representing: blood pressure, arteriosclerosis, atherosclerosis, and cardiac factors. Each factor significantly predicted time to CVD events and dementia at 10 and 15 years independent of each other and conventional risk scores. Subclinical vascular composites of arteriosclerosis and atherosclerosis best predicted time to clinical events of CVD, CHD, stroke, and dementia. These results were consistent across sex and racial and ethnic groups. Conclusions Subclinical vascular composites of arteriosclerosis and atherosclerosis may be useful biomarkers to inform the vascular pathways contributing to events of CVD, CHD, stroke, and dementia.
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