Subclinical vascular composites predict clinical cardiovascular disease, stroke, and dementia: The Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA)

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Subclinical cardiovascular disease (CVD) measures may reflect biological pathways that contribute to increased risk for coronary heart disease (CHD) events, stroke, and dementia beyond conventional risk scores.

METHODS

The Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA) followed 6814 participants (45-84 years of age) from baseline in 2000-2002 to 2018 over 6 clinical examinations and annual follow-up interviews. MESA baseline subclinical CVD procedures included: seated and supineblood pressure, coronary calcium scan, radial artery tonometry, and carotid ultrasound. Baseline subclinical CVD measures were transformed into z-scores before factor analysis to derive composite factor scores. Time to clinical event for all-cause CVD, CHD, stroke and ICD code-based dementia events were modeled using Cox proportional hazards models reported as area under the curve (AUC) with 95% Confidence Intervals (95%CI) at 10 and 15 years of follow-up. All models included all factor scores together, and adjustment for conventional risk scores for global CVD, stroke, and dementia.

RESULTS

After factor selection, 24 subclinical measures aggregated into four distinct factors representing: blood pressure, atherosclerosis, arteriosclerosis, and cardiac factors. Each factor significantly predicted time to CVD events and dementia at 10 and 15 years independent of each other and conventional risk scores. Subclinical vascular composites of atherosclerosis and arteriosclerosis best predicted time to clinical events of CVD, CHD, stroke, and dementia. These results were consistent across sex and racial and ethnic groups.

CONCLUSIONS

Subclinical vascular composites of atherosclerosis and arteriosclerosis may be useful biomarkers to inform the vascular pathways contributing to events of CVD, CHD, stroke, and dementia.

Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis Early Heart Failure Study: Rationale, Design, and Baseline Characteristics

BACKGROUND

Current prevalence estimates of heart failure (HF) are primarily based on self-report or HF hospitalizations. There is an unmet need to define the prevalence and pathogenesis of early symptomatic HF, which may be undiagnosed and precedes HF hospitalization.

METHODS

The MESA (Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis) Early HF study was conducted during MESA exam 6 to determine the prevalence of early HF and investigate the transition from risk factors to early HF in a diverse population-based cohort of older adults. Between 2016 and 2018, 3285 MESA participants from 6 field centers underwent comprehensive speckle-tracking echocardiography with passive leg raise maneuver, Kansas City Cardiomyopathy Questionnaire, 6-minute walk test, arterial stiffness assessment, and proteomics (including NT-proBNP [N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide]).

RESULTS

Median age was 73 (25th-75th percentile 67-81) years, 53.2% were female, 25.6% were Black, 12.8% were Chinese, and 40.0% were White. The prevalence of HF risk factors was high: hypertension, 61.9%; former or current smoking, 53.7%; obesity 34.8%; diabetes; 24.7%; and chronic kidney disease; 22%. Overt cardiovascular disease, which ranged from 2.1% (HF) to 13.6% (atrial fibrillation), was less common. Of the 3285 participants, 96% underwent proteomics, 94% Kansas City Cardiomyopathy Questionnaire, 93% speckle-tracking echocardiography with passive leg raise, 82% arterial stiffness exam, and 77% 6-minute walk test. Feasibility of resting speckle-tracking echocardiography (87%-99% across cardiac chambers) and passive leg raise Doppler/speckle-tracking echocardiography (>84%) measurements was high. A total of 120 unique echocardiographic indices were measured.

CONCLUSIONS

The MESA Early HF study is a key resource for cardiovascular researchers who are interested in improving the epidemiological and phenotypic characterization of early HF.

REGISTRATION

URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov; Unique identifier: NCT00005487.

Potential Mediators for Treatment Effects of Novel Diabetes Medications on Cardiovascular and Renal Outcomes: A Meta-Regression Analysis

BACKGROUND

Prior research suggests clinical effects of glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists (GLP-1RAs) and sodium-glucose cotransporter-2 inhibitors (SGLT2is) are mediated by changes in glycated hemoglobin, body weight, systolic blood pressure, hematocrit, and urine albumin-creatinine ratio. We aimed to confirm these findings using a meta-analytic approach.

METHODS AND RESULTS

We updated a systematic review of 9 GLP-1RA and 13 SGLT2i trials and summarized longitudinal mediator data. We obtained hazard ratios (HRs) for cardiovascular, renal, and mortality outcomes. We performed linear mixed-effects modeling of LogHRs versus changes in potential mediators and investigated differences in meta-regression associations among drug classes using interaction terms. HRs generally became more protective with greater glycated hemoglobin reduction among GLP-1RA trials, with average HR improvements of 20% to 30%, reaching statistical significance for major adverse cardiovascular events (ΔHR, 23%; P=0.02). Among SGLT2i trials, associations with HRs were not significant and differed from GLP1-RA trials for major adverse cardiovascular events (Pinteraction=0.04). HRs for major adverse cardiovascular events, myocardial infarction, and stroke became less efficacious (ΔHR, -15% to -34%), with more weight loss for SGLT2i but not for GLP-1RA trials (ΔHR, 4%-7%; Pinteraction<0.05). Among 5 SGLT2i trials with available data, HRs for stroke became less efficacious with larger increases in hematocrit (ΔHR, 123%; P=0.09). No changes in HRs by systolic blood pressure (ΔHR, -11% to 9%) and urine albumin-creatinine ratio (ΔHR, -1% to 4%) were found for any outcome.

CONCLUSIONS

We confirmed increased efficacy findings for major adverse cardiovascular events with reduction in glycated hemoglobin for GLP1-RAs. Further research is needed on the potential loss of cardiovascular benefits with increased weight loss and hematocrit for SGLT2i.

Association between physical activity and clinical outcomes in high-risk hypertension: Post-hoc analysis of SPRINT

Objective

Engaging in physical activity (PA) is recommended to reduce the risk of morbidity and mortality in patients with hypertension. However, the association between PA and clinical outcomes in individuals with high-risk hypertension is understudied. We examined the relationship between PA and clinical outcomes in the Systolic Blood Pressure Intervention Trial (SPRINT). SPRINT investigated the benefit of intensive (vs. standard) blood pressure treatment in patients with high-risk hypertension.

Methods

Baseline data on PA was self-reported. Vigorous-intensity PA (VPA) was categorized into 2 groups based on frequency of "Rarely or Never" and 1 or more sessions/month. Moderate-intensity PA (MPA) was also categorized into 2 groups based on average duration/day of <15 min and 15 or more minutes. Using multivariable Cox regression, we estimated the associations between PA the primary outcome which was a composite of cardiovascular events, and all-cause mortality.

Results

A total of 8,320 (age 67.8 ± 9.3, 34.9% women) of SPRINT participants with data on PA were included. During a median follow-up of 3.8 years, 619 primary outcome, and 419 all-cause mortality events occurred. Compared to not engaging in VPA, the risk of the primary outcome, myocardial infarction, and all-cause mortality (HR 95% CIs) associated with VPA of ≥1sessions/month was 0.79(0.65-0.94; p=0.009), 0.70(0.52-0.93; p=0.014) and 0.75(0.60-0.94; p=0.011), respectively. Similarly, the risk of the primary outcome and all-cause mortality (HR 95% CI) associated with engaging in MPA for ≥15 min/day, relative to <15 min/day was 0.76(0.63-0.93; p=0.008) and 0.80(0.62-1.02; p=0.066), respectively.

Conclusion

Among individuals with hypertension from the SPRINT study, VPA and MPA at a threshold of ≥1sessions/month and MPA of ≥15 min/day respectively, were both associated with a lower risk for cardiovascular events, and VPA was also associated with a reduced risk for all-cause mortality. Further studies are required to identify the optimal volume and intensity of PA in high-risk hypertension.

Association between weight variability, weight change and clinical outcomes in hypertension

Objective

The effect of body weight variability (BWV) and body weight change (BWC) in high-risk individuals with hypertension, but without diabetes mellitus (DM) remains unclear. We examined the effect of BWV and BWC on the primary outcome [the composite of myocardial infarction (MI), other acute coronary syndromes, stroke, acute decompensated heart failure (HF), or cardiovascular (CV) death] and all-cause mortality in the Systolic Blood Pressure Intervention Trial (SPRINT).

Methods

In this post-hoc analysis, we used multivariate Cox regression models to examine the risk associated with BWV and BWC for the primary outcome in SPRINT. BWV was defined as the intra-individual average successive variability (ASV). BWC was defined as baseline weight minus final weight.

Results

A total of 8714 SPRINT participants (mean age 67.8 ± 9.4 years, 35.1 % women, 58.9 % Whites) with available data on body weight were included. The median follow-up was about 3.9 years (IQR, 3.3-4.4). In multivariable-adjusted Cox models, each 1 unit standard deviation (SD) of BWV was significantly associated with a higher risk for the primary outcome, all-cause mortality, HF, MI, and stroke [HR(95 % CI)]: 1.13 (1.07-1.19; p < 0.0001), 1.22 (1.14-1.30; p < 0.0001), 1.16 (1.07-1.26; p < 0.001), 1.10 (1.00-1.20; p = 0.047), and 1.15 (1.05-1.27; p = 0.005), respectively. Similarly, each 1 unit SD of BWC was significantly associated with a higher risk of the primary outcome, all-cause mortality, MI, and HF: 1.11(1.02-1.21; p = 0.017), 1.44 (1.26-1.65; p < 0.0001), 1.16 (1.01-1.32; p = 0.041) and 1.19 (1.02-1.40; p = 0.031) respectively. However, there was no significant association with CV death (for both BWV and BWC) or stroke (BWC).

Conclusion

In high-risk hypertension, BWV and BWC were both associated with higher risk of the primary outcome and all-cause mortality. These results further stress the clinical importance of sustained weight loss and minimizing fluctuations in weight in hypertension.

Electrocardiographic Associations of Cardiac Biomarkers and Cardiac Magnetic Resonance Measures of Fibrosis in the Multiethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA)

Abnormalities in myocardial substrate, including diffuse and replacement fibrosis, increase the risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD). Data are sparse on whether electrocardiogram (ECG) measures, coupled with circulating biomarkers, may aid in identifying cardiac fibrosis. This study aimed to determine whether 12-lead ECG and biomarkers together augment the prediction of cardiac fibrosis in participants who are free of known CVD. This is a cross-sectional analysis in the MESA (Multiethnic Study of Atherosclerosis) study at visit 5 (2010 to 2012), with measurements of biomarkers (cardiac troponin T and growth differentiation factor-15), gadolinium-enhanced cardiac magnetic resonance imaging, and ECG. Logistic regression associations of ECG measures with cardiac magnetic resonance surrogates of fibrosis (highest quartile extracellular volume [interstitial fibrosis] and late gadolinium enhancement [replacement fibrosis]) were adjusted for demographics and risk factors. Using the C-statistic, we evaluated whether adding ECG measures and biomarkers to clinical characteristics improved the prediction of either type of fibrosis. There were 1,170 eligible participants (aged 67.1 ± 8.6 years). Among the ECG measures, QRS duration (odds ratio [OR] 1.41 per 10 ms, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.10 to 1.81), major ST-T abnormalities (OR 3.03, 95%CI 1.20, 7.65), and abnormal QRS-T angle (OR 6.32, 95%CI 3.00, 13.33) were associated with replacement fibrosis, whereas only abnormal QRS-T angle (OR 3.05, 95%CI,1.69, 5.48) was associated with interstitial fibrosis. ECG markers, in addition to clinical characteristics, improved the prediction of replacement fibrosis (p = 0.002) but not interstitial fibrosis. The addition of cardiac troponin T and growth differentiation factor-15 to the ECG findings did not significantly improve the model discrimination for either type of cardiac fibrosis. In CVD free participants, simple ECG measures are associated with replacement fibrosis and interstitial fibrosis. The addition of these measures improves identification of replacement but not interstitial fibrosis. These findings may help refine the identification of myocardial scar in the general population.

Association of silent myocardial infarction on electrocardiogram and coronary artery calcium: The Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis

BACKGROUND

Silent myocardial infarction (SMI) on electrocardiogram (ECG) is associated with atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease, but the relationship between SMI on ECG and coronary artery calcium (CAC) remains poorly understood.

OBJECTIVE

Characterize the relationship between SMI on ECG and CAC.

METHODS

Eligible participants from the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis study had ECG and CAC scoring at study enrollment (2000-2002). SMI was defined as ECG evidence of myocardial infarction in the absence of a history of clinical cardiovascular disease. CAC was modeled both continuously and categorically. The cross-sectional relationships between SMI on ECG and CAC were assessed using logistic regression and linear regression.

RESULTS

Among 6705 eligible participants, 178 (2.7%) had baseline SMI. Compared to participants without SMI, those with SMI had higher CAC (median [IQR]: 61.2 [0-261.7] vs. 0 [0-81.5]; p < .0001). Participants with SMI were more likely to have non-zero CAC (74% vs. 49%) and were more likely to have CAC ≥ 100 (40% vs. 23%). In a multivariable-adjusted logistic model, SMI was associated with higher odds of non-zero CAC (odds ratio 2.17, 95% CI 1.48-3.20, p < .0001) and 51% higher odds of CAC ≥ 100 (odds ratio 1.51, 95% CI 1.06-2.16, p = .02).

CONCLUSION

An incidental finding of SMI on ECG may serve to identify patients who have a higher odds of significant CAC and may benefit from additional risk stratification to further refine their cardiovascular risk. Further exploration of the utility of CAC assessment in this patient population is needed.

Implications of Social Disadvantage Score in Cardiovascular Outcomes and Risk Assessment: Findings From the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis

BACKGROUND

Social determinants of health contribute to disparate cardiovascular outcomes, yet they have not been operationalized into the current paradigm of cardiovascular risk assessment.

METHODS

Data from the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis, which includes participants from 6 US field centers, were used to create an index of baseline Social Disadvantage Score (SDS) to explore its association with incident atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) and all-cause mortality and impact on ASCVD risk prediction. SDS, which ranges from 0 to 4, was calculated by tallying the following social factors: (1) household income less than the federal poverty level; (2) educational attainment less than a high school diploma; (3) single-living status; and (4) experience of lifetime discrimination. Cox models were used to examine the association between SDS and each outcome with adjustment for traditional cardiovascular risk factors. Changes in the discrimination and reclassification of ASCVD risk by incorporating SDS into the pooled cohort equations were examined.

RESULTS

A total of 6434 participants (mean age, 61.9±10.2 years; female 52.8%; non-white 60.9%) had available SDS 1733 (26.9%) with SDS 0; 2614 (40.6%) with SDS 1; 1515 (23.5%) with SDS 2; and 572 (8.9%) with SDS ≥3. In total, 775 incident ASCVD events and 1573 deaths were observed over a median follow-up of 17.0 years. Increasing SDS was significantly associated with incident ASCVD and all-cause mortality after adjusting for traditional risk factors (ASCVD: per unit increase in SDS hazard ratio, 1.15 [95% CI, 1.07-1.24]; mortality: per unit increase in SDS hazard ratio, 1.13 [95% CI, 1.08-1.19]). Adding SDS to pooled cohort equations components in a Cox model for 10-year ASCVD risk prediction did not significantly improve discrimination (P=0.208) or reclassification (P=0.112).

CONCLUSIONS

Although SDS is independently associated with incident ASCVD and all-cause mortality, it does not improve 10-year ASCVD risk prediction beyond pooled cohort equations.

Cardiovascular and Renal Benefits of Novel Diabetes Drugs by Baseline Cardiovascular Risk: A Systematic Review, Meta-analysis, and Meta-regression

BACKGROUND

Eligibility for glucagon-like peptide 1 receptor agonists (GLP-1RA) and sodium-glucose cotransporter 2 inhibitors (SGLT2i) has been expanded to patients with diabetes at lower cardiovascular risk, but whether treatment benefits differ by risk levels is not clear.

PURPOSE

To investigate whether patients with varying risks differ in cardiovascular and renal benefits from GLP-1RA and SGLT2i with use of meta-analysis and meta-regression.

DATA SOURCES

We performed a systematic review using PubMed through 7 November 2022.

STUDY SELECTION

We included reports of GLP-1RA and SGLT2i confirmatory randomized trials in adult patients with safety or efficacy end point data.

DATA EXTRACTION

Hazard ratio (HR) and event rate data were extracted for mortality, cardiovascular, and renal outcomes.

DATA SYNTHESIS

We analyzed 9 GLP-1RA and 13 SGLT2i trials comprising 154,649 patients. Summary HRs were significant for cardiovascular mortality (GLP-1RA 0.87 and SGLT2i 0.86), major adverse cardiovascular events (0.87 and 0.88), heart failure (0.89 and 0.70), and renal (0.84 and 0.65) outcomes. For stroke, efficacy was significant for GLP-1RA (0.84) but not for SGLT2i (0.92). Associations between control arm cardiovascular mortality rates and HRs were nonsignificant. Five-year absolute risk reductions (0.80-4.25%) increased to 11.6% for heart failure in SGLT2i trials in patients with high risk (Pslope < 0.001). For GLP1-RAs, associations were nonsignificant.

LIMITATIONS

Analyses were limited by lack of patient-level data, consistency in end point definitions, and variation in cardiovascular mortality rates for GLP-1RA trials.

CONCLUSIONS

Relative effects of novel diabetes drugs are preserved across baseline cardiovascular risk, whereas absolute benefits increase at higher risks, particularly regarding heart failure. Our findings suggest a need for baseline risk assessment tools to identify variation in absolute treatment benefits and improve decision-making.

Circulating ketone bodies and cardiovascular outcomes: the MESA study

AIMS

Ketone bodies (KB) are an important alternative metabolic fuel source for the myocardium. Experimental and human investigations suggest that KB may have protective effects in patients with heart failure. This study aimed to examine the association between KB and cardiovascular outcomes and mortality in an ethnically diverse population free from cardiovascular disease (CVD).

METHODS AND RESULTS

This analysis included 6796 participants (mean age 62 ± 10 years, 53% women) from the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis. Total KB was measured by nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy. Multivariable-adjusted Cox proportional hazard models were used to examine the association of total KB with cardiovascular outcomes. At a mean follow-up of 13.6 years, after adjusting for traditional CVD risk factors, increasing total KB was associated with a higher rate of hard CVD, defined as a composite of myocardial infarction, resuscitated cardiac arrest, stroke, and cardiovascular death, and all CVD (additionally included adjudicated angina) [hazard ratio, HR (95% confidence interval, CI): 1.54 (1.12-2.12) and 1.37 (1.04-1.80) per 10-fold increase in total KB, respectively]. Participants also experienced an 87% (95% CI: 1.17-2.97) increased rate of CVD mortality and an 81% (1.45-2.23) increased rate of all-cause mortality per 10-fold increase in total KB. Moreover, a higher rate of incident heart failure was observed with increasing total KB [1.68 (1.07-2.65), per 10-fold increase in total KB].

CONCLUSION

The study found that elevated endogenous KB in a healthy community-based population is associated with a higher rate of CVD and mortality. Ketone bodies could serve as a potential biomarker for cardiovascular risk assessment.

Subclinical Vascular Composites Predict Clinical Cardiovascular Disease, Stroke, and Dementia: The Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA)

Background

Subclinical cardiovascular disease (CVD) measures may reflect biological pathways that contribute to increased risk for coronary heart disease (CHD) events, stroke, and dementia beyond conventional risk scores.

Methods

The Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA) followed 6,814 participants (45-84 years of age) from baseline in 2000-2002 to 2018 over 6 clinical examinations and annual follow-up interviews. MESA baseline subclinical CVD procedures included: seated and supine blood pressure, coronary calcium scan, radial artery tonometry, and carotid ultrasound. Baseline subclinical CVD measures were transformed into z-scores before factor analysis to derive composite factor scores. Time to clinical event for all CVD, CHD, stroke and ICD code-based dementia events were modeled using Cox proportional hazards models reported as area under the curve (AUC) with 95% Confidence Intervals (95%CI) at 10 and 15 years of follow-up. All models included all factor scores together and adjustment for conventional risk scores for global CVD, stroke, and dementia.

Results

After factor selection, 24 subclinical measures aggregated into four distinct factors representing: blood pressure, arteriosclerosis, atherosclerosis, and cardiac factors. Each factor significantly predicted time to CVD events and dementia at 10 and 15 years independent of each other and conventional risk scores. Subclinical vascular composites of arteriosclerosis and atherosclerosis best predicted time to clinical events of CVD, CHD, stroke, and dementia. These results were consistent across sex and racial and ethnic groups.

Conclusions

Subclinical vascular composites of arteriosclerosis and atherosclerosis may be useful biomarkers to inform the vascular pathways contributing to events of CVD, CHD, stroke, and dementia.

Endogenous Sex Hormone Levels and Myocardial Fibrosis in Men and Postmenopausal Women

BACKGROUND

Sex hormone (SH) imbalances have been linked to a higher risk of heart failure in both sexes. However, mechanisms that underlie this relationship remain unclear. We examined the association of baseline SH with interstitial and replacement myocardial fibrosis in the MESA (Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis) using cardiac magnetic resonance (CMR) T1 mapping and late gadolinium enhancement (LGE).

OBJECTIVES

The purpose of this study was to assess the link between baseline sex hormone levels and myocardial fibrosis in the MESA cohort using CMR.

METHODS

A total of 2,324 participants (men and postmenopausal women [PMW]) were included in the MESA with SH measured at baseline and had underwent CMR 10 years later. All analyses were stratified by sex and age. Regression models were constructed to assess the associations of baseline SH with extracellular volume (ECV)% and native T1 time and with LGE. Higher native T1 time and ECV% are interpreted as evidence of increasing interstitial myocardial fibrosis (IMF). Given the limited number of myocardial scars present in PMW, analysis of LGE was limited to men.

RESULTS

Among older men (age ≥65 years), a 1-SD increment higher free testosterone was significantly associated with 2.45% lower ECV% and 21.5% lower native T1 time, while a 1-SD increment higher bioavailable testosterone was associated with 12.5% lower native T1 time. A 1-SD increment greater sex hormone-binding globulin level was associated with 1% higher ECV%. Among PMW of 55 to 64 years, a 1-SD increment higher total testosterone was associated with 9.5% lower native T1 time. Higher levels of estradiol in older men were independently associated with higher odds of having a myocardial scar (OR: 4.10; 95% CI: 1.35-12.40; P = 0.01).

CONCLUSIONS

Among older men, SH imbalances at initial evaluation were independently associated with CMR defined IMF and replacement fibrosis, respectively; while increasing total testosterone in middle-aged PMW was associated with lesser marker of IMF. (JACC Adv 2023;2:100320) Published by Elsevier on behalf of the American College of Cardiology Foundation.

Relationship between abnormal P-wave axis, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and mortality in the general population

BACKGROUND

It is unclear whether the presence of a vertical P-wave axis on electrocardiogram modifies the association of COPD with mortality.

OBJECTIVE

To examine the association and interaction of abnormal P-wave axis and COPD with mortality.

STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS

The analysis included 7359 with ECG data from the Third National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES-III) who were free of cardiovascular disease (CVD) at enrollment. Abnormal P-wave axis (aPWA) was defined as values above 75°. COPD was self-reported as either a diagnosis of emphysema or chronic bronchitis. National Death Index was used to identify the date of death and cause of death. Using multivariable Cox proportional hazard analysis, we examined the association of COPD with all-cause mortality by aPWA status.

RESULTS

Over a median follow-up of 14 years, 2435 deaths occurred. Participants with concomitant presence of aPWA and COPD experienced higher death rates (73.9 per 1000 person-years (PY)) compared to either COPD or aPWA alone (36.4 per 1000 PY and 31.1 per 1000 PY), respectively. In multivariable-adjusted models, a stronger association between COPD and mortality was noted in the presence compared to the absence of aPWA (HR 95% CI): 1.71 (1.37-2.13) vs. 1.22(1.00-1.49), respectively (interaction P-value = 0.02). Similarly, a stronger association between aPWA and mortality was observed in the presence compared to the absence of COPD (HR 95% CI): 1.66(1.26-2.19) vs. 1.18(1.06-1.31), respectively (interaction P-value = 0.02). Similar higher death rates and mortality risk was observed when spirometry-confirmed COPD and aPWA were present together than in isolation.

CONCLUSION

The concomitant presence of aPWA and COPD leads to a significantly higher mortality rate compared to the presence either COPD or aPWA alone as a clinical variable. P-wave axis, reported routinely on ECG printout, can potentially identify patients with COPD who need intensive control of risk factors and disease management.

Abstract P140: Potential Mediators for Cardiovascular Benefits of Novel Diabetes Medications: A Meta-Regression Analysis

Background: Prior research suggests cardiovascular (CV) benefits of glucose-lowering interventions may be mediated by changes in hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c), bodyweight, systolic blood pressure (SBP), hematocrit, and urine albumin-creatinine ratio (uACR). We evaluated the heterogeneity of CV benefits by these potential mediators for sodium-glucose transporter 2 inhibitors (SGLT2i) and glucagon-like peptide 1 receptor agonists (GLP-1RAs) using a meta-analytic approach.

Methods: We performed a systematic review and meta-regression analyses of 12 SGLT2i and 9 GLP-1RA CV outcome trials using linear mixed models of treatment efficacy measured as log hazard ratios (HRs) vs changes in potential mediators. We extracted follow-up mediator data for treatment and control, preferably at 12 months post randomization. Outcomes included MI, stroke, and MACE (a composite of MI, stroke, or CV death). We investigated slope differences between drug classes using interaction terms and likelihood-ratio tests.

Results: Treatment efficacy for MACE improved with more HbA1c reduction among GLP-1RA (slope .26; P slope .02) but not among SGLT2i trials (slope -.22; P slope .39; P interaction .06), see Figure . Treatment efficacy for MACE, MI, and stroke decreased with more weight loss for SGLT2i (slope –.17, –.29, –.39; P slope <.05) but not for GLP-1RA trials (slope .05, .03, .07; P slope .30, .62, .32). Slopes differed significantly between drug classes: P interaction <.05. For stroke, we observed a trend of less treatment efficacy with increases in hematocrit among five SGLT2i trials with available data (slope .96; P slope .07). We did not find any indication of mediation effects by SBP and uACR for SGLT2i or GLP-1RAs (slopes -.11 -.07; P slopes ≥ .05).

Conclusion: We confirm previous findings of increased CV benefits with reductions in HbA1c for GLP1-RAs. Further research is needed to investigate the potential loss of SGLT2i efficacy with greater weight loss and increase in hematocrit.

Cardiac Structure and Function Phenogroups and Risk of Incident Heart Failure (from the Multi-ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis)

Indices of cardiac structure and function, such as left ventricular (LV) mass and ejection fraction, have been associated with risk of incident heart failure (HF), but the clinical relevance of data-driven grouping of a comprehensive set of cardiac parameters is unclear. In Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis participants, latent class analysis was applied in the sample stratified by gender to define phenogroups on the basis of cardiovascular magnetic resonance imaging parameters of right ventricular and LV structure and function at baseline. Cox proportional hazard models in gender-stratified analyses were used to assess the association between phenogroup membership and risk of HF subtypes adjusting for potential confounders. In the 4,204 participants (mean age 61 ± 10 years, 53% women), the mean follow-up time was 14 ± 4 years for men and 15 ± 4 years for women. For both genders, 4 distinct phenogroups were identified: (1) ideal cardiac mechanics; (2) higher output/hypertrophied LV; (3) impaired ejection fraction/dilated LV; and (4) higher output/hyperdynamic (LV). Men in phenogroups 4 (hazard ratio [HR] 2.91, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.60 to 5.31, p = 0.0005), 3 (HR 3.52, 95% CI 1.90 to 6.53, p <0.0001), and 2 (HR 3.49, 95% CI 1.94 to 6.28, p <0.0001) had higher rates of incident HF than did men in phenogroup 1, in fully adjusted models. No significant associations were found between phenogroup membership and incident HF in women. In conclusion, phenogroup membership based on cardiac structure and function in men was significantly associated with incident HF. Integration of cardiac magnetic resonance imaging variables may help identify differential risk for HF in men.

Statins and Left Ventricular Ejection Fraction Following Doxorubicin Treatment

BACKGROUND

Statins taken for cardiovascular indications by patients with breast cancer and lymphoma during doxorubicin treatment may attenuate left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) decline, but the effect of statins on LVEF among patients with no cardiovascular indications is unknown.

METHODS

A double-blind, placebo-controlled, 24-month randomized trial of 40 mg of atorvastatin per day administered to patients with breast cancer and lymphoma receiving doxorubicin was conducted within the National Cancer Institute Community Oncology Research Program across 31 sites in the United States. At pretreatment and then 6 and 24 months after initiating doxorubicin, we assessed left ventricular (LV) volumes, strain, mass, and LVEF through cardiac magnetic resonance imaging, along with cognitive function and serum markers of inflammation. The primary outcome was the difference in 24-month LVEF between placebo and treatment groups, adjusted for pretreatment LVEF.

RESULTS

A total of 279 participants were enrolled in the trial. Participants had a mean (±SD) age of 49±12 years; 92% were women; and 83% were White. The mean (±SD) LVEF values were 61.7±5.5% before treatment and 57.4±6.8% at 24 months in the placebo group and 62.6±6.4% before treatment and 57.7±5.6% at 24 months in the atorvastatin group. On the basis of a multiple imputed data set for missing data and adjusted for each individual's pretreatment LVEF, 24-month declines in LVEF averaged 3.3±0.6 percentage points and 3.2±0.7 percentage points, for those randomly assigned to placebo versus statins, respectively (P=0.93). Across both treatment arms, similar percentages of individuals experienced changes of more than 10 percentage points in LVEF, LV strain, LV mass, cognition, and inflammation biomarkers, including among those with greater than 90% drug compliance.

CONCLUSIONS

In patients with breast cancer and lymphoma with no existing indication for statin therapy, prospective statin administration did not affect LVEF declines 2 years after doxorubicin. (Funded by the National Institutes of Health; ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT01988571.).

Relation of Left Ventricular Hypertrophy Subtype to Long-Term Mortality in Those With Subclinical Cardiovascular Disease (from the Multiethnic Study of Atherosclerosis [MESA])

The clinical and biochemical profile of differing Left ventricular hypertrophy phenotypes and its effect on long-term outcomes is ill-defined. The study investigated the differences in risk profiles and prognostic effect of concentric (CH) and eccentric hypertrophy (EH) on long-term adverse outcomes in a contemporary, ethnically diverse cohort. We analyzed follow-up data over 15 years from the Multiethnic Study of Atherosclerosis study. A total of 4,979 participants with cardiac magnetic resonance performed at baseline enrollment were included. Descriptive statistics, Kaplan-Meier curves, and regression models were applied. Independent variables associated with CH were black and Hispanic race/ethnicity, systolic blood pressure, and metabolic syndrome. Independent variables associated with EH were systolic blood pressure and urine creatinine, whereas serum creatinine had an inverse association. The primary end point of all-cause death (n = 1,137, 22.8%) occurred in 21.7%, 47.4%, and 56.6% of participants with no, CH, or EH, respectively (p- < 0.001). Age (hazard ratio [HR] per year = 1.10 [1.09 to 1.11], p <0.001), male gender (HR = 1.48 [1.29 to 1.69], p <0.001), black race (HR = 1.17 [1.005 to 1.36], p = 0.04), fasting glucose (HR = 1.005 [1.003 to 1.007], p <0.001), baseline creatinine (HR per mg/100 ml = 1.29 [1.15 to 1.46], p <0.001), left ventricular ejection fraction (HR per 1% = 0.98 [0.98 to 0.99], p = 0.005), IL-6 (HR per pg/ml = 1.17 [1.12 to 1.22], p <0.001), CH (HR = 1.84 [1.41 to 2.41], p <0.001), and EH (HR = 2.58 [1.77 to 3.76], p <0.001) were significant predictors of all-cause mortality. In conclusion, CH and EH are 2 distinct clinical phenotypes of left ventricular hypertrophy with differing gender and racial predisposition, both of which are associated with worse long-term adverse outcomes.

The Interplay of Race/Ethnicity and Obesity on the Incidence of Venous Thromboembolism

INTRODUCTION

Factors predisposing asymptomatic individuals within the community to venous thromboembolism are not fully understood. This study characterizes the incidence and determinants of venous thromboembolism among the Multiethnic Study of Atherosclerosis cohort with a focus on race/ethnicity and obesity.

METHODS

This study (analyzed in 2020-2021) used the Multiethnic Study of Atherosclerosis cohort (2000-2017), which included participants with diverse ethnic/racial backgrounds aged 45-84 years without cardiovascular disease at baseline. The primary endpoint was time to diagnosis of venous thromboembolism defined using International Classification of Diseases codes (415, 451, 453, 126, 180, and 182). Multivariable-adjusted hazard ratios of the predictors of venous thromboembolism were calculated with a focus on the interaction between obesity and race/ethnicity categories.

RESULTS

Over a median follow-up period of 14 years, 233 individuals developed venous thromboembolism. Incidence rates (per 1,000 person-years) varied across racial/ethnic groups with the highest incidence among Black (4.02) followed by White (2.98), Hispanic (2.08), and Chinese (0.79) participants. There was a stepwise increase in the incidence rate of venous thromboembolism with increasing BMI regardless of race/ethnicity: normal (1.95), overweight (2.52), obese (3.63), and morbidly obese (4.55). The association between BMI and venous thromboembolism was strongest among non-White women with the highest incidence rate for obese (4.8) compared with non-obese (1.6). The interaction among obesity, gender, and race was statistically significant (p=0.01) in non-White obese women. Risk of venous thromboembolism increased with age for all race/ethnicities.

CONCLUSIONS

This study finds that obesity may confer an increased risk for venous thromboembolism among non-White women compared with other groups-White men, White women, and non-White men.

Association of Vascular Risk Scores and Cognitive Performance in a Diverse Cohort: The Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis

BACKGROUND

Vascular risk scores are associated with incident dementia. Information regarding their association with cognitive performance and decline in racially/ethnically diverse cohorts is lacking.

METHOD

In 4 392 Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis participants (aged 60.1 ± 9.4 years; 53% women; 41% White, 11% Chinese American, 26% African American, 21% Hispanic), we compared associations of Exam 1 (2000-2002) Cardiovascular Risk Factors, Aging, and Incidence of Dementia (CAIDE), Framingham Stroke Risk Profile (FSRP), and atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease pooled cohort equation (ASCVD-PCE) risk scores with Exam 5 (2010-2012) Cognitive Abilities Screening Instrument (CASI), Digit Symbol Coding (DSC), and Digit Span (DS) cognitive test performance using multivariable linear regression, and examined racial/ethnic interactions. In 1 838 participants with repeat CASI data at Exam 6 (2016-2018), we related risk scores to odds of a 1-SD decline in CASI performance using multivariable logistic regression.

RESULTS

SD increments in each risk score were associated with worse cognitive performance. CAIDE had stronger associations with CASI performance than the FSRP and ASCVD-PCE, but associations of ASCVD-PCE with the DSC and DS were similar to CAIDE (difference in β [95% CI] = -0.57 [-1.48, 0.34] and -0.21 [-0.43, 0.01], respectively). Race/ethnicity modified associations. For example, associations between CAIDE and CASI were greater in African Americans and Hispanics than in Whites (difference in β = 0.69 [0.02, 1.36] and 1.67 [0.95, 2.39], respectively). Risk scores were comparably associated with decline in CASI performance.

CONCLUSIONS

Antecedent vascular risk scores are associated with cognitive performance and decline in the 4 most common U.S. racial/ethnic groups, but associations differ among risk scores and by race/ethnicity.

Randomized trial of atorvastatin during and following receipt of doxorubicin for breast cancer and lymphoma (WF-98213)

12072

Background: Statins taken for cardiovascular (CV) indications by breast cancer (BC) and lymphoma survivors during doxorubicin (DOX) treatment may attenuate left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) decline, but statin impact among these survivors with no CV indications is unknown. Methods: In 279 patients from 31 cancer centers, we conducted a double blind, placebo-controlled, 24-month randomized trial of 40mg/day atorvastatin among those receiving DOX for BC or lymphoma. At pretreatment, six and 24 months after initiating DOX for BC or lymphoma, we assessed LV volumes, strain, mass, and LVEF (via cardiac magnetic resonance), cognitive function and serum markers of inflammation. Using a linear model adjusted for pretreatment measures, our primary analysis assessed change in LVEF over time by randomization group. Results: Participants were aged 49±12 years; 92% women, 83% white race. The mean pooled LVEF decline from pretreatment to 24 months was 62.2±6.0% to 57.6±6.3% (p < 0.001). Adjusting for pretreatment LVEF, 24-month declines in LVEF averaged 3.5±0.5% and 3.3±0.5% respectively for placebo vs statins (p = 0.83). Both randomized groups were similar for: incidence of > 10% change in LVEF, LV strain, LV mass, cognition and inflammation biomarkers, including among those > 90% study drug compliant (p > 0.05 for all). Conclusions: In BC and lymphoma survivors with no existing indication for statin therapy, prospective statin administration does not appear to impact LVEF declines two years after doxorubicin. Clinical trial information: NCT01988571. [Table: see text]

Physical Activity, Coronary Artery Calcium, and Cardiovascular Outcomes in the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA)

INTRODUCTION

Although the inverse relationship between physical activity (PA) and cardiovascular disease (CVD) is well established, observational studies suggest that very high levels of PA may be harmful. This study sought to understand the relationship between PA, coronary artery calcium (CAC), and cardiovascular outcomes among individuals at different levels of risk.

METHODS

PA and CAC were assessed in 6777 baseline participants of the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis. Total PA in MET-minutes per week was categorized into quartiles, and CAC was categorized as "low risk" (<100 Agatston units; n = 5180) and "high risk" (≥100 Agatston units; n = 1597). Cox proportional hazard regression analyses and Kaplan-Meier curves were generated to understand relationships between PA and CAC with CVD and all-cause mortality.

RESULTS

In low-risk participants in the highest PA quartile, there was a decrease in the adjusted hazard ratio (HR) for CVD (HR, 0.72; 95% confidence interval (CI), 0.56-0.94) and all-cause mortality (HR, 0.69; 95% CI, 0.57-0.84) compared with those in the lowest PA quartile. In high-risk participants in the highest PA quartile, there was a decrease in the adjusted HR for all-cause mortality (HR, 0.59; 95% CI, 0.47-0.74) compared with those in the lowest PA quartile. High PA was not associated with an increased risk of either outcome, regardless of CAC category, sex, or race/ethnicity.

CONCLUSIONS

Our research suggests that there is no increased risk associated with high levels of PA, even among individuals at high risk of CVD.

Lifetime Cardiovascular Disease Risk by Coronary Artery Calcium Score in Individuals With and Without Diabetes: An Analysis From the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis

OBJECTIVE

To assess lifetime cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk by coronary artery calcium (CAC) score in individuals with diabetes from the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA) and compare risk with that in individuals without diabetes.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

We developed a microsimulation model with well, diabetes, post-CVD, and death health states using multivariable time-dependent Cox regression with age as time scale. We initially used 10-year follow-up data of 6,769 MESA participants, including coronary heart disease (CHD) (n = 272), heart failure (n = 201), stroke (n = 186), and competing death (n = 619) and assessed predictive validity at 15 years. We externally validated the model in matched National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) participants. Subsequently, we predicted CVD risk until age 100 years by diabetes, 10-year pooled cohort equations risk, and CAC score category (0, 1-100, or 100+).

RESULTS

The model showed good calibration and discriminative performance at 15 years, with discrimination indices 0.71-0.78 across outcomes. In the NHANES cohort, predicted 15-year mortality risk corresponded well with Kaplan-Meier risk, especially for those with diabetes: 29.6% (95% CI 24.9-34.8) vs. 32.4% (95% CI 27.2-37.2), respectively. Diabetes increased lifetime CVD risk, similar to shifting one CAC category upward (from 0 to 1-100 or from 1-100 to 100+). Patients with diabetes and CAC score of 0 had a lifetime CVD risk that overlapped with that of individuals without diabetes who were at low 10-year pooled cohort equations risk (<7.5%).

CONCLUSIONS

Patients with diabetes carry a spectrum of CVD risk. CAC scoring may improve decisions for preventive interventions for patients with diabetes by better delineating lifetime CVD risk.

Effect of Intensive Blood Pressure Lowering on Incident Atrial Fibrillation: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

The effect of intensive versus standard blood pressure (BP) lowering on the risk of atrial fibrillation (AF) is uncertain. Intensive BP lowering is associated with a lower risk of AF among patients with hypertension. We searched PubMed, EMBASE, and CENTRAL (inception to June 5, 2020) for randomized controlled trials evaluating the effect of intensive versus standard (target systolic BP < 140 mmHg) BP lowering on incident AF. We assessed heterogeneity using the I2 statistic then used fixed-effects meta-analysis models to report pooled treatment effects and 95% confidence intervals. We also tested for publication bias by three funnel plot-based methods. The quality of each study was assessed with the Cochrane Risk of Bias tool. We assessed 16 candidate studies for eligibility from 2,312 published articles, but only three randomized clinical trials were eligible for inclusion and included a combined 12,219 participants with hypertension: Cardio-Sis (Studio Italiano Sugli Effetti Cardiovascolari del Controllo della Pressione Arteriosa Sistolica), ACCORD-BP (Action to Control Cardiovascular Risk in Diabetes Blood Pressure trial), and SPRINT (Systolic Blood Pressure Intervention Trial). The target systolic BP in the intensive BP arm was <120 mmHg for participants in SPRINT and ACCORD-BP, but <130 mmHg for participants in Cardio-Sis. Participants randomized to intensive BP lowering had significantly lower risk of incident AF compared with those randomized to standard BP lowering (AF incidence 2.2% vs. 3.0%, respectively; pooled hazard ratio (95% confidence interval): 0.74 (0.59 - 0.93)). Intensive BP lowering is associated with a significantly lower risk of incident AF in patients with hypertension. These findings add to the current evidence supporting the benefits of intensive BP control.

Trajectories of Blood Pressure Control a Year After Randomization and Incident Cardiovascular Outcomes in SPRINT

BACKGROUND

While studies have assessed the association between blood pressure trajectories and cardiovascular disease (CVD) outcomes using observational data, few have assessed these associations using clinical trial data. We sought to identify systolic blood pressure (SBP) trajectories and to determine if these trajectory patterns carry inherent CVD risk, irrespective of baseline blood pressure.

METHODS

SBP trajectories were identified using latent class group-based modeling among a cohort of Systolic Blood Pressure Intervention Trial (SPRINT) participants by incorporating SBP measures during the first 12 months of the trial postrandomization. Cox models were used to evaluate the association between SBP trajectory with CVD and all-cause mortality.

RESULTS

Four distinct SBP trajectories were identified: "low decline" (41%), "high decline" (6%), "low stable" (48%), and "high stable" (5%). Relative to the "low decline" group, the "low stable" group was associated with a 29% increased risk of CVD (hazard ratio [HR]: 1.29, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.06-1.57) and the "high stable" group was associated with a 76% increased risk of all-cause mortality (HR: 1.76, 95% CI: 1.15-2.68). Relative to the "low stable" group, the "high stable" group was associated with a 54% increased risk of all-cause mortality (HR: 1.54, 95% CI: 1.05-2.28).

CONCLUSIONS

Our results demonstrate that SBP trajectory patterns are associated with important cardiovascular outcomes, irrespective of baseline blood pressure, which may help better identify individuals at risk and assist with accurate adjudication of antihypertensive therapy to reduce future events.

Associations of Cardiac Mechanics With Exercise Capacity: The Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis

BACKGROUND

Lower exercise capacity, as measured by 6-minute walk distance (6MWD), is associated with incident heart failure (HF). Among those without HF, the associations of measures of cardiac function with 6MWD are unclear, and may provide insight regarding the risk of incident HF.

OBJECTIVES

The purpose of this study was to understand the relationships between cardiac function and exercise capacity.

METHODS

This study evaluated the associations of cardiac mechanics with 6MWD in the sixth examination of the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis. Echocardiography (2-dimensional, Doppler, and speckle-tracking) was performed at rest and after passive leg raise to evaluate functional reserve after intravascular volume challenge.

RESULTS

Of 2,096 participants without HF (mean age 73 years, 48% men, 58% non-White), individuals with lower (worse) left atrial (LA) reservoir strain were older and had higher blood pressure. Lower resting LA reservoir strain (β coefficient per SD decrease: -5.0; 95% confidence interval [CI]: -8.8 to -1.3 m; p = 0.009), inability to augment LA reservoir strain after passive leg raise (β coefficient per SD decrease: -5.8; 95% CI: -9.1 to -2.5 m; p < 0.001), and lower right atrial reservoir strain (β coefficient per SD decrease: -4.4; 95% CI: -7.8 to -1.1 m; p = 0.01) were associated with shorter 6MWD. Worse left ventricular (LV) diastolic function was also associated with lower 6MWD. There were no independent associations of measures of LV systolic function (global longitudinal strain, circumferential strain, ejection fraction) with 6MWD.

CONCLUSIONS

Among individuals without HF, worse biatrial function, lack of LA functional reserve, and worse LV diastolic function were associated with reduced submaximal exercise capacity. Therapies aimed to improve these functional domains may increase exercise capacity and prevent HF.

Assessment of Coronary Artery Calcium Scoring to Guide Statin Therapy Allocation According to Risk-Enhancing Factors: The Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis

Importance

The 2018 American Heart Association/American College of Cardiology Guideline on the Management of Blood Cholesterol recommends the use of risk-enhancing factor assessment and the selective use of coronary artery calcium (CAC) scoring to guide the allocation of statin therapy among individuals with an intermediate risk of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD).

Objective

To examine the association between risk-enhancing factors and incident ASCVD by CAC burden among those at intermediate risk of ASCVD.

Design, Setting, and Participants

The Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis is a multicenter population-based prospective cross-sectional study conducted in the US. Baseline data for the present study were collected between July 15, 2000, and July 14, 2002, and follow-up for incident ASCVD events was ascertained through August 20, 2015. Participants were aged 45 to 75 years with no clinical ASCVD or diabetes at baseline, were at intermediate risk of ASCVD (≥7.5% to <20.0%), and had a low-density lipoprotein cholesterol level of 70 to 189 mg/dL.

Exposures

Family history of premature ASCVD, premature menopause, metabolic syndrome, chronic kidney disease, lipid and inflammatory biomarkers, and low ankle-brachial index.

Main Outcomes and Measures

Incident ASCVD over a median follow-up of 12.0 years.

Results

A total of 1688 participants (mean [SD] age, 65 [6] years; 976 men [57.8%]). Of those, 648 individuals (38.4%) were White, 562 (33.3%) were Black, 305 (18.1%) were Hispanic, and 173 (10.2%) were Chinese American. A total of 722 participants (42.8%) had a CAC score of 0. Among those with 1 to 2 risk-enhancing factors vs those with 3 or more risk-enhancing factors, the prevalence of a CAC score of 0 was 45.7% vs 40.3%, respectively. Over a median follow-up of 12.0 years (interquartile range [IQR], 11.5-12.6 years), the unadjusted incidence rate of ASCVD among those with a CAC score of 0 was less than 7.5 events per 1000 person-years for all individual risk-enhancing factors (with the exception of ankle-brachial index, for which the incidence rate was 10.4 events per 1000 person-years [95% CI, 1.5-73.5]) and combinations of risk-enhancing factors, including participants with 3 or more risk-enhancing factors. Although the individual and composite addition of risk-enhancing factors to the traditional risk factors was associated with improvement in the area under the receiver operating curve, the use of CAC scoring was associated with the greatest improvement in the C statistic (0.633 vs 0.678) for ASCVD events. For incident ASCVD, the net reclassification improvement for CAC was 0.067.

Conclusions and Relevance

In this cross-sectional study, among participants with CAC scores of 0, the presence of risk-enhancing factors was generally not associated with an overall ASCVD risk that was higher than the recommended treatment threshold for the initiation of statin therapy. The use of CAC scoring was associated with significant improvements in the reclassification and discrimination of incident ASCVD. The results of this study support the utility of CAC scoring as an adjunct to risk-enhancing factor assessment to more accurately classify individuals with an intermediate risk of ASCVD who might benefit from statin therapy.

Long-term Predictions of Incident Coronary Artery Calcium to 85 Years of Age for Asymptomatic Individuals With and Without Type 2 Diabetes

OBJECTIVE

To examine the utility of repeated computed tomography (CT) coronary artery calcium (CAC) testing, we assessed risks of detectable CAC and its cardiovascular consequences in individuals with and without type 2 diabetes ages 45-85 years.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

We included 5,836 individuals (618 with type 2 diabetes, 2,972 without baseline CAC) from the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis. With logistic and Cox regression we evaluated the impact of type 2 diabetes, diabetes treatment duration, and other predictors on prevalent and incident CAC. We used time-dependent Cox modeling of follow-up data (median 15.9 years) for two repeat CT exams and cardiovascular events to assess the association of CAC at follow-up CT with cardiovascular events.

RESULTS

For 45 year olds with type 2 diabetes, the likelihood of CAC at baseline was 23% vs. 17% for those without. Median age at incident CAC was 52.2 vs. 62.3 years for those with and without diabetes, respectively. Each 5 years of diabetes treatment increased the odds and hazard rate of CAC by 19% (95% CI 8-33) and 22% (95% CI 6-41). Male sex, White ethnicity/race, hypertension, hypercholesterolemia, obesity, and low serum creatinine also increased CAC. CAC at follow-up CT independently increased coronary heart disease rates.

CONCLUSIONS

We estimated cumulative CAC incidence to age 85 years. Patients with type 2 diabetes develop CAC at a younger age than those without diabetes. Because incident CAC is associated with increased coronary heart disease risk, the value of periodic CAC-based risk assessment in type 2 diabetes should be evaluated.

Comparison of the Relation of Carotid Intima-Media Thickness With Incident Heart Failure With Reduced Versus Preserved Ejection Fraction (from the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis [MESA])

Increased carotid intima-media thickness (cIMT) is associated with heart failure (HF) in previous studies, but it is not known whether the association of cIMT differs between HF with reduced (HFrEF) versus preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF). We studied 6699 participants (mean age 62 ± 10 years, 47% male, and 38% white) from the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA) with baseline cIMT measurements. We classified HF events as HFrEF (EF <50%) or HFpEF (EF ≥ 50%) at the time of diagnosis. Cox proportional hazard regression was used to compute hazard ratios (HR), and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for the association between the IMT Z-score (measured maximum IMT of Internal Carotid (IC) and Common Carotid (CC) sites as the mean of the maximum IMT of the near and far walls of right and left sides), and incident HFrEF or HFpEF. Models were adjusted for covariates and interim coronary artery disease (CAD) events. A total of 191 HFrEF and 167 HFpEF events occurred during follow-up. In multivariable analysis, each 1 standard deviation increase in the measured maximum IMT (Z-score) was associated with both HFrEF and HFpEF in the unadjusted and demographically adjusted models [HR, 95% CI 1.57 (1.43 to 1.73)] and [HR, 95% CI 1.61 (1.47 to 1.77)] but not in the fully adjusted models [HR, 95% CI 1.11 (0.96 to 1.28)] and [HR, 95% CI 1.13 (0.98 to 1.30)]. In conclusion, cIMT was significantly associated with incident HF, but the association is partially attenuated with adjustment for demographic factors and becomes non-significant after adjustment for other traditional heart failure risk factors and interim CAD events. There was no difference in the association of IMT measures with HFrEF versus HFpEF.

Abstract MP33: Cardiac Structure And Function Phenogroups And Risk Of Incident Heart Failure: Multi-ethnic Study Of Atherosclerosis

Introduction: Indices of cardiac structure and function, such as left ventricular (LV) mass and ejection fraction (EF), have individually been associated with development of incident heart failure (HF). Identifying HF risk groups (or phenogroups) based on imaging parameters may help inform distinct imaging phenotypes to target for prevention.

Objectives: To identify phenogroups based on cardiovascular magnetic resonance imaging (cMRI) parameters in participants free of cardiovascular disease at baseline and examine longitudinal risk of incident HF.

Methods: We included participants from the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA) who had completed baseline cMRI between 2000 and 2002. We applied latent class analysis to define phenogroups based on cMRI parameters of right ventricular and LV structure and function (including circumferential strain) at baseline (using the Bayesian Information Criterion as well as visual inspection). We used Cox-proportional hazard models to assess the association between membership in a phenogroup and risk of incident HF adjusted for age, sex, race, hypertension, diabetes, and hyperlipidemia.

Results: Of 1484 participants, 48% were female and mean age was 65 (10) years. Over a median follow-up of 13 years, a total of 91 incident HF events occurred. We identified 3 distinct phenogroups that differed in terms of cardiac structure and function. Adjusted hazards ratio (95% confidence interval) for incident HF was higher among participants in Group 3 (2.08 [1.17, 3.71]) and Group 2 (2.24 [1.15, 4.37]), compared with Group 1 as the referent ( Table ).

Conclusion: Phenogroups based on cMRI were differentially associated with risk of HF. Classification of cardiovascular imaging phenogroups integrating traditional and strain parameters within the normal range may be useful in identifying risk for HF; further validation is required before implementation.

Association of T-wave abnormalities with major cardiovascular events in diabetes: the ACCORD trial

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS

T-wave abnormalities (TWA) are often found on ECG and signify abnormal ventricular repolarisation. While TWA have been shown to be associated with subclinical atherosclerosis, the relationship between TWA and hard cardiovascular endpoints is less clear and may differ in the presence of diabetes, so we sought to explore these associations in participants from the Action to Control Cardiovascular Risk in Diabetes (ACCORD) trial.

METHODS

TWA were operationally defined as the presence of any Minnesota Codes 5-1 through 5-4 in any lead distribution. Multivariable Cox proportional hazards models were constructed to examine relationships between TWA and clinical cardiovascular events. Secondary analyses explored the risks conferred by major vs minor TWA, differential effects of TWA by anatomic localisation (anterolateral, inferior or anterior lead distributions), and differing associations in those with or without prevalent CVD.

RESULTS

Among 8176 eligible participants (mean 62.1 ± 6.3 SD years, 61.4% male), there were 3759 cardiovascular events, including 1430 deaths (473 of a cardiovascular aetiology), 474 heart failure events, 1452 major CHD events and 403 strokes. Participants with TWA had increased risks of all-cause mortality (HR 1.45 [95% CI 1.30, 1.62], p < 0.0001), cardiovascular mortality (HR 1.93 [1.59, 2.34], p = 0.0001), congestive heart failure (HR 2.04 [1.69, 2.48], p < 0.0001) and major CHD (HR 1.40 [1.26, 1.57], p < 0.0001), but no increased risk of stroke (HR 0.99 [0.80, 1.23], p = 0.95). Major TWA conferred a higher risk than minor TWA. When TWA were added to the UK Prospective Diabetes Study risk engine, there was improved discrimination for incident CHD events, but only for those with prevalent CVD (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve 0.5744 and 0.6030 with p = 0.0067). Adding TWA to the risk engine yielded improvements in reclassification that were of greater magnitude in those with prevalent CVD (net reclassification improvement [NRI] 0.24 [95% CI 0.16, 0.32] in those with prevalent CVD, NRI 0.14 [95% CI 0.07, 0.22] in those without prevalent CVD).

CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION

The presence and magnitude of TWA are associated with increased risk of clinical cardiovascular events and mortality in individuals with diabetes and may have value in refining risk, particularly in those with prevalent CVD. Graphical abstract.

Cardiovascular Risk in the Lung Cancer Screening Population: A Multicenter Study Evaluating the Association Between Coronary Artery Calcification and Preventive Statin Prescription

OBJECTIVE

Coronary artery calcification (CAC) is a marker of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD), the leading cause of death in individuals receiving lung cancer screening (LCS) with low-dose CT. Our purpose was to determine the proportion of the LCS population eligible for primary ASCVD preventive statin therapy by American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association guidelines, assess statin prescription rates among statin-eligible individuals, and determine associations of CAC on downstream statin prescribing within 90 days of LCS.

METHODS

Individuals receiving LCS between January 1, 2016, and December 31, 2018, across three centers were retrospectively enrolled. Statin eligibility in individuals without pre-existing ASCVD was determined by 2013 American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association guidelines: (1) low-density lipoprotein ≥190 mg/dL, (2) diabetes, or (3) ASCVD risk score ≥7.5%. CAC presence and severity (mild, moderate, heavy) were extracted from LCS reports. Variation in statin prescription rates and associations between CAC and statin prescription were determined using mixed-effects logistic regression.

RESULTS

Of 5,495 individuals receiving LCS, 31.4% (1,724 of 5,495) had pre-existing ASCVD. Of the remaining 3,771 individuals, 73.6% were statin eligible (2,777 of 3,771). However, most lacked statin prescription (60.5%, 1,681 of 2,777). CAC was associated with downstream statin prescribing (adjusted odds ratio = 2.60, 95% confidence interval: 1.12-6.02), with a higher likelihood of statin prescribing with increasing CAC severity (adjusted odds ratio = 2.21, 95% confidence interval: 1.35-3.60).

CONCLUSION

Although most of the LCS population is eligible for guideline-directed statin therapy, statins are underprescribed in this group. Radiologist reporting of CAC at LCS reflects a potential opportunity to raise awareness of ASCVD risk and improve preventive statin prescribing.

The utility of silent myocardial infarction on electrocardiogram as an ASCVD risk enhancer for primary prevention: The multi-ethnic study of atherosclerosis

BACKGROUND

The 2018 AHA/ACC cholesterol guidelines introduced a new list of markers called "risk enhancers" that, if present, confer an increased risk of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD). Silent myocardial infarction (SMI) on electrocardiogram (ECG) is notably absent, even though it associated with future ASCVD.

METHODS

We assessed the utility of SMI on ECG as a risk-enhancer in intermediate-risk participants in MESA (Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis) - those with 10-year ASCVD risk of 5-20% by the pooled cohort equation (PCE). SMI was defined as major Q-wave abnormality or minor Q/QS waves in the setting of major ST-T abnormalities without prevalent clinical cardiovascular disease.

RESULTS

Among 2946 participants (mean age 63.1 ± 7.6, 53.9% women, 36% white, 11% Chinese-American, 33% African-American, 19% Hispanic), 66 (2.2%) had SMI at baseline. After a median 15.8 years of follow-up, incident ASCVD events occurred in 431/2876 (15.0%) of those without SMI and 16/66 (24.2%) of those with SMI. In a multivariable-adjusted Cox proportional hazards model, baseline SMI was associated with an increased risk of incident ASCVD events (HR 1.68, 95% CI 1.02-2.77, p = 0.04). However, adding SMI to the PCE did not improve discrimination and reclassification was modest-net reclassification improvement was 0.0161 (95% CI 0.002-0.034, p = 0.08).

CONCLUSION

Our findings suggest that the prevalence of SMI is 2.2% among those without known clinical cardiovascular disease considered intermediate-risk by the PCE. In our analysis, SMI only modestly improved classification of risk, suggesting that it may not be very useful as an ASCVD risk enhancer.

Race, Body Mass Index, and the Risk of Atrial Fibrillation: The Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis

Background

Higher body mass index (BMI) is associated with increased risk of incident atrial fibrillation (AF), but it is not known whether this relationship varies by race/ethnicity.

Methods and Results

Eligible participants (6739) from MESA (Multi‐Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis) were surveilled for incident AF using MESA hospital surveillance, scheduled MESA study ECG, and Medicare claims data. After a median 13.8 years of follow‐up, 970 participants (14.4%) had incident AF. With BMI modeled categorically in a Cox proportional hazards model, only those with grade II and grade III obesity had increased risks of AF (hazard ratio [HR], 1.50; 95% CI, 1.14–1.98, P=0.004 for grade II obesity and HR, 2.13; 95% CI, 1.48–3.05, P<0.0001 for grade III obesity). The relationship between BMI and AF risk was J‐shaped. However, the risk of AF as a function of BMI varied substantially by race/ethnicity (P value for interaction=0.02), with Chinese‐American participants having a much higher risk of AF with higher BMI and Black participants having minimal increased risk of AF with higher BMI.

Conclusions

Obesity is associated with an increased risk of incident AF, but the relationship between BMI and the risk of AF is J‐shaped and this relationship differs by race/ethnicity, such that Chinese‐American participants have a more pronounced increased risk of AF with higher BMI, while Black participants have minimal increased risk. Further exploration of the differential effects of BMI by race/ethnicity on cardiovascular outcomes is needed.

Relation of Low Normal Left Ventricular Ejection Fraction to Heart Failure Hospitalization in Blacks (From the Jackson Heart Study)

There is no clear consensus on a lower cutoff value for normal left ventricular ejection fraction (EF) and the prognostic implications of low normal EF (LNEF) are poorly understood, particularly in Blacks. Therefore, we investigated the association of LNEF and incident heart failure (HF) in a community-based cohort of Blacks. We studied 3,669 participants (mean age 54 years, 63% women) of the Jackson Heart Study without prevalent HF or coronary heart disease (CHD). Participants were divided into three groups: (1) Reduced EF (<50%), (2) LNEF (≥50%, <55%), and (3) Normal EF (≥55%). There were 197 cases of incident HF hospitalizations over a median follow-up of 10 years (interquartile range 9.4 to 10). After adjustment for conventional risk factors and incident CHD, the LNEF group had a higher rate of incident HF hospitalization than the Normal EF group (HR 1.58, 95% CI 1.04 to 2.38, p<0.05). Furthermore, this relation remained statistically significant after additionally adjusting for LV mass index but was not significant after adjusting for LV diastolic dysfunction grade. In participants with LNEF with incident HF, 63% developed HF with reduced EF and 37% developed HF with preserved EF. In conclusion, LNEF is associated with higher risk of incident HF hospitalization in comparison with normal EF in a community-based cohort of Blacks. In those with LNEF who went on to develop HF, most cases were HF with reduced EF. These findings suggest that strategies are needed for risk stratification and management to improve outcomes in patients with LNEF.

Warranty Period of a Calcium Score of Zero: Comprehensive Analysis From MESA

OBJECTIVES

This study sought to quantify and model conversion of a normal coronary artery calcium (CAC) scan to an abnormal CAC scan.

BACKGROUND

Although the absence of CAC is associated with excellent prognosis, progression to CAC >0 confers increased risk. The time interval for repeated scanning remains poorly defined.

METHODS

This study included 3,116 participants from the MESA (Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis) with baseline CAC = 0 and follow-up scans over 10 years after baseline. Prevalence of incident CAC, defined by thresholds of CAC >0, CAC >10, or CAC >100, was calculated and time to progression was derived from a Weibull parametric survival model. Warranty periods were modeled as a function of sex, race/ethnicity, cardiovascular risk, and desired yield of repeated CAC testing. Further analysis was performed of the proportion of coronary events occurring in participants with baseline CAC = 0 that preceded and followed repeated CAC testing at different time intervals.

RESULTS

Mean participants' age was 58 ± 9 years, with 63% women, and mean 10-year cardiovascular risk of 14%. Prevalence of CAC >0, CAC >10, and CAC >100 was 53%, 36%, and 8%, respectively, at 10 years. Using a 25% testing yield (number needed to scan [NNS] = 4), the estimated warranty period of CAC >0 varied from 3 to 7 years depending on sex and race/ethnicity. Approximately 15% of participants progressed to CAC >10 in 5 to 8 years, whereas 10-year progression to CAC >100 was rare. Presence of diabetes was associated with significantly shorter warranty period, whereas family history and smoking had small effects. A total of 19% of all 10-year coronary events occurred in CAC = 0 prior to performance of a subsequent scan at 3 to 5 years, whereas detection of new CAC >0 preceded 55% of future events and identified individuals at 3-fold higher risk of coronary events.

CONCLUSIONS

In a large population of individuals with baseline CAC = 0, study data provide a robust estimation of the CAC = 0 warranty period, considering progression to CAC >0, CAC >10, and CAC >100 and its impact on missed versus detectable 10-year coronary heart disease events. Beyond age, sex, race/ethnicity, diabetes also has a significant impact on the warranty period. The study suggests that evidence-based guidance would be to consider rescanning in 3 to 7 years depending on individual demographics and risk profile.

Body Mass Index, Sex, and Incident Atrial Fibrillation in Diabetes: The ACCORD Trial

OBJECTIVES

This study sought to characterize the relationship between obesity and the risk of atrial fibrillation (AF) in diabetes.

BACKGROUND

Obesity is associated with increased risk of AF in the general population, but there is evidence that this relationship may differ in those with diabetes.

METHODS

Cox proportional hazards models were used to examine the association between body mass index (BMI) and incident AF on study electrocardiogram in participants from the ACCORD (Action to Control Cardiovascular Risk in Diabetes) trial.

RESULTS

Among 10,074 ACCORD participants (age 62.7 ± 6.6 years, 38.7% women, 62.2% white), 8.4% were normal weight, 29.0% were overweight, 53.1% were obese, and 9.5% were severely obese. Participants with obesity and severe obesity had increased risks of AF compared with normal weight (hazard ratio [HR]: 1.91; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.03 to 3.93; and HR: 3.69; 95% CI: 1.79 to 8.22, respectively). There was a 51% increased risk of AF per SD (5.4 U) BMI increase. However, there was a sex and BMI interaction-in men, obesity and severe obesity were associated with a substantially increased AF risk (HR: 3.19; 95% CI: 1.27 to 7.31; and HR: 4.79; 95% CI: 2.11 to 11.93, respectively), whereas there was no statistically significant association in women.

CONCLUSIONS

In those with diabetes, obesity and severe obesity are associated with increased risk of AF, but there is an interaction between sex and BMI, such that elevated BMI appears to confer a much greater risk of AF in men than in women. Further studies exploring the differential effects of BMI on AF risk in men and women are needed.

Effect of Intensive Glycemic and Blood Pressure Control on QT Prolongation in Diabetes: The ACCORD Trial

Compared with standard glycemic control, intensive glycemic control caused increased mortality in the Action to Control Cardiovascular Risk in Diabetes (ACCORD) trial. Preliminary data from several studies suggest that intensive glycemic control is associated with QT prolongation, which may lead to ventricular arrhythmias as a possible explanation of this increased mortality. We sought to assess the effects of intensive glycemic control and intensive blood pressure control on the risk of incident QT prolongation. Cox proportional hazards models were used to compare the risk of incident QT prolongation (>460 ms in women or >450 ms in men) in the intensive versus standard glycemic control arms. Over a combined 48,634 person-years of follow-up (mean 4.9), 634 participants (6.4%) developed a prolonged QTc. Participants in the intensive glycemic control arm did not have an increased risk of QT prolongation. Similarly, a strategy of intensive blood pressure control did not result in a significant change in risk of prolonged QTc. Sensitivity analyses using alternative QT correction formulas (Hodges and Bazett) yielded overall similar findings. In conclusion, the increased mortality observed in the intensive glycemic control arm in the ACCORD trial is not likely to be explained by QT prolongation leading to lethal ventricular arrhythmias.

Association of Alcohol Intake With Hypertension in Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus: The ACCORD Trial

Background Heavy alcohol consumption has a well-established association with hypertension. However, doubt persists whether moderate alcohol consumption has a similar link. This relationship is not well-studied in patients with diabetes mellitus. We aimed to describe the association of alcohol consumption with prevalent hypertension in participants in the ACCORD (Action to Control Cardiovascular Risk in Diabetes) trial. Methods and Results Alcohol consumption was categorized as none, light (1-7 drinks/week), moderate (8-14 drinks/week), and heavy (≥15 drinks/week). Blood pressure was categorized using American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association guidelines as normal, elevated blood pressure, stage 1 hypertension, and stage 2 hypertension. Multivariable logistic regression was used to explore the association between alcohol consumption and prevalent hypertension. A total of 10 200 eligible participants were analyzed. Light alcohol consumption was not associated with elevated blood pressure or any stage hypertension. Moderate alcohol consumption was associated with elevated blood pressure, stage 1, and stage 2 hypertension (odds ratio [OR], 1.79; 95% CI, 1.04-3.11, P=0.03; OR, 1.66; 95% CI, 1.05-2.60, P=0.03; and OR, 1.62; 95% CI, 1.03-2.54, P=0.03, respectively). Heavy alcohol consumption was associated with elevated blood pressure, stage 1, and stage 2 hypertension (OR, 1.91; 95% CI, 1.17-3.12, P=0.01; OR, 2.49; 95% CI, 1.03-6.17, P=0.03; and OR, 3.04; 95% CI, 1.28-7.22, P=0.01, respectively). Conclusions Despite prior research, our findings show moderate alcohol consumption is associated with hypertension in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus and elevated cardiovascular risk. We also note a dose-risk relationship with the amount of alcohol consumed and the degree of hypertension.

Role of Coronary Artery and Thoracic Aortic Calcium as Risk Modifiers to Guide Antihypertensive Therapy in Stage 1 Hypertension (From the Multiethnic Study of Atherosclerosis)

The 2017 American blood pressure (BP) guidelines recommended a personalized risk-based approach to treatment in stage 1 hypertension. We sought to establish the utility of coronary artery or thoracic aortic calcium (CAC or TAC) as additional risk modifiers in this setting. We included 1859 Multiethnic Study of Atherosclerosis participants with stage 1 hypertension. We compared adjusted HR for the composite outcome of incident atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease or heart failure across predefined categories of either CAC or TAC (0, 1 to 100, or >100) in: (1) the full sample; (2) 4 high-risk subgroups recommended for pharmacotherapy to a BP goal <130/80 mm Hg, and (3) low-risk subgroup not eligible for pharmacotherapy. We also estimated the 10-year number-needed-to-treat (NNT₁₀) to a systolic BP <130 mm Hg as extrapolated from meta-analyses. Mean age was 62.8 ± 9.4 years, 46% were female and there were 300 events over a median follow-up of 13.8 years. The absolute event rate was 4.1 to 10.8 per 1,000 person-years among high-risk participants with CAC = 0, but 28.4 among low-risk participants with CAC >100. CAC >100 was independently associated with a higher relative risk of events compared with CAC = 0 (e.g., adjusted HR [9.5 (1.8 to 18.7)] in the low-risk subgroup). NNT₁₀ for CAC = 0 were 3 to 5 times higher than those for CAC >100 in all analyses. TAC was not a reliable risk modifier in our study. In conclusion, CAC, but not TAC, can further guide risk-based allocation of treatment in stage 1 hypertension and should be considered as a risk modifier in future guidelines.

P-wave axis is associated with all-cause mortality in diabetes: The ACCORD trial

Abnormal P-wave axis (PWA) has emerged as a novel marker of risk for both cardiovascular disease (CVD) and all-cause mortality (ACM) in the general population, though this relationship has not been adequately explored among those with type 2 diabetes (DM2). We aimed to explore the association between abnormal PWA and ACM among a large, well-phenotyped group of participants with DM2 from the Action to Control Cardiovascular Risk in Diabetes (ACCORD) trial. This analysis included 8899 ACCORD participants with available PWA data on baseline electrocardiogram. Cox proportional hazards models were used to examine the association between PWA and ACM in models adjusted for demographics, ACCORD trial treatment assignment, and potential confounders. PWA was modeled as either normal (0° -75°) or abnormal (<0° or >75°). Over 44,000 person-years of follow up, there were 609 deaths. Participants with abnormal PWA had increased risk of ACM (HR 1.61, 95% CI 1.25-2.08). After multivariable adjustment, the association remained significant (HR 1.33, 95% CI 1.03-1.72). This relationship was similar in subgroups stratified by age, race, sex, and history of CVD. Among ACCORD trial participants, abnormal PWA was associated with an increased risk of mortality. Abnormal PWA may have added value beyond traditional risk factors in prediction models.

Coronary Artery Calcium for Personalized Allocation of Aspirin in Primary Prevention of Cardiovascular Disease in 2019: The MESA Study (Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis)

BACKGROUND

Recent American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association Primary Prevention Guidelines recommended considering low-dose aspirin therapy only among adults 40 to 70 years of age who are at higher atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) risk but not at high risk of bleeding. However, it remains unclear how these patients are best identified. The present study aimed to assess the value of coronary artery calcium (CAC) for guiding aspirin allocation for primary prevention by using 2019 aspirin meta-analysis data on cardiovascular disease relative risk reduction and bleeding risk.

METHODS

The study included 6470 participants from the MESA Study (Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis). ASCVD risk was estimated using the pooled cohort equations, and 3 strata were defined: <5%, 5% to 20%, and >20%. All participants underwent CAC scoring at baseline, and CAC scores were stratified as =0, 1 to 99, ≥100, and ≥400. A 12% relative risk reduction in cardiovascular disease events was used for the 5-year number needed to treat (NNT₅) calculations, and a 42% relative risk increase in major bleeding events was used for the 5-year number needed to harm (NNH₅) estimations.

RESULTS

Only 5% of MESA participants would qualify for aspirin consideration for primary prevention according to the American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association guidelines and using >20% estimated ASCVD risk to define higher risk. Benefit/harm calculations were restricted to aspirin-naive participants <70 years of age not at high risk of bleeding (n=3540). The overall NNT₅ with aspirin to prevent 1 cardiovascular disease event was 476 and the NNH₅ was 355. The NNT₅ was also greater than or similar to the NNH₅ among estimated ASCVD risk strata. Conversely, CAC≥100 and CAC≥400 identified subgroups in which NNT₅ was lower than NNH₅. This was true both overall (for CAC≥100, NNT₅=140 versus NNH₅=518) and within ASCVD risk strata. Also, CAC=0 identified subgroups in which the NNT₅ was much higher than the NNH₅ (overall, NNT₅=1190 versus NNH₅=567).

CONCLUSIONS

CAC may be superior to the pooled cohort equations to inform the allocation of aspirin in primary prevention. Implementation of current 2019 American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association guideline recommendations together with the use of CAC for further risk assessment may result in a more personalized, safer allocation of aspirin in primary prevention. Confirmation of these findings in experimental settings is needed.

Coronary Artery Calcification, Statin Use and Long-Term Risk of Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease Events (from the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis)

The prognostic utility of coronary artery calcium (CAC) for individuals taking statins is unclear. We hypothesized that CAC remains associated with atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) events in individuals using statins at baseline or among those started on statin at follow-up. The Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis is a prospective cohort study of 6,814 participants who were enrolled between 2000 and 2002 and were free of clinical ASCVD at baseline. Four follow-up visits were conducted in 2002 to 2004, 2004 to 2006, 2005 to 2007, and 2010 to 2012. CAC was assessed at baseline and follow-up using either an electron-beam CT scanner or a multidetector CT system. Statin use at baseline and follow up was self-reported. Among 6,811 participants with complete information on statin use, mean age was 62 (SD = 10) years, 53% were women, 38% white, 12% Chinese-American, 28% African American, and 22% Hispanic. In multivariable analyses, CAC >0 was associated with a significantly higher risk of ASCVD events regardless of baseline or incident statin use. For example, hazard ratios (95% confidence interval) for the association between CAC >0 and ASCVD were 2.46 (1.41, 4.28) for baseline statin users, 2.08 (1.68, 2.57) for baseline-statin nonusers, and 2.21 (1.56, 3.15) for those started on a statin at follow-up. In conclusion, current statin use does not weaken the prognostic utility of CAC. CAC is associated with incident ASCVD regardless of baseline or incident statin use.

Associations between BMI, waist circumference, central obesity and outcomes in type II diabetes mellitus: The ACCORD Trial

AIMS

Our study aimed to investigate associations between BMI, waist circumference (WC), and central obesity (CO) with outcomes in patients with type 2 diabetes using data from the ACCORD trial.

METHODS

WC was assessed as a continuous variable. CO was derived as a dichotomous variable using cutoffs from the World Health Organization. BMI was assessed as a continuous and categorical variable using BMI ≤ 24.9 kg/m² as normal weight, 25-30 kg/m² as overweight, and >30 kg/m² as obese. Incident atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD), congestive heart failure (CHF), and all-cause mortality were assessed. Cox proportional hazards were used to assess associations between our predictors and outcomes after adjusting for confounders. Bonferroni correction was used to adjust for multiple comparisons.

RESULTS

BMI and WC were associated with CHF [HR (95%CI): 1.41 (1.28-1.56), p ≤ 0.001; 1.43 (1.30-1.58), p ≤ 0.001 respectively] and all-cause mortality [HR (95%CI): 1.20 (1.11-1.30), p ≤ 0.001; 1.22 (1.13-1.37), p ≤ 0.001 respectively], though CO was not associated with any outcome after adjustment. No associations were seen between any adiposity metric and ASCVD.

CONCLUSION

Both BMI and WC independently capture the risk associated with adiposity in type 2 diabetes. However, those considered overweight and obese by BMI, and those with CO were not independently associated with outcomes in this cohort.