Long-term depressive symptom trajectories and related baseline characteristics in primary care patients: Analysis of the PsicAP clinical trial

BACKGROUND

There is heterogeneity in the long-term trajectories of depressive symptoms among patients. To date, there has been little effort to inform the long-term trajectory of symptom change and the factors associated with different trajectories. Such knowledge is key to treatment decision-making in primary care, where depression is a common reason for consultation. We aimed to identify distinct long-term trajectories of depressive symptoms and explore pre-treatment characteristics associated with them.

METHODS

A total of 483 patients from the PsicAP clinical trial were included. Growth mixture modeling was used to identify long-term distinct trajectories of depressive symptoms, and multinomial logistic regression models to explore associations between pre-treatment characteristics and trajectories.

RESULTS

Four trajectories were identified that best explained the observed response patterns: "recovery" (64.18%), "late recovery" (10.15%), "relapse" (13.67%), and "chronicity" (12%). There was a higher likelihood of following the recovery trajectory for patients who had received psychological treatment in addition to the treatment as usual. Chronicity was associated with higher depressive severity, comorbidity (generalized anxiety, panic, and somatic symptoms), taking antidepressants, higher emotional suppression, lower levels on life quality, and being older. Relapse was associated with higher depressive severity, somatic symptoms, and having basic education, and late recovery was associated with higher depressive severity, generalized anxiety symptoms, greater disability, and rumination.

CONCLUSIONS

There were different trajectories of depressive course and related prognostic factors among the patients. However, further research is needed before these findings can significantly influence care decisions.

Estimating life expectancy and years of life lost for autistic people in the UK: a matched cohort study

Background

Previous research has shown that people who have been diagnosed autistic are more likely to die prematurely than the general population. However, statistics on premature mortality in autistic people have often been misinterpreted. In this study we aimed to estimate the life expectancy and years of life lost experienced by autistic people living in the UK.

Methods

We studied people in the IQVIA Medical Research Database with an autism diagnosis between January 1, 1989 and January 16, 2019. For each participant diagnosed autistic, we included ten comparison participants without an autism diagnosis, matched by age, sex, and primary care practice. We calculated age- and sex-standardised mortality ratios comparing people diagnosed autistic to the reference group. We used Poisson regression to estimate age-specific mortality rates, and life tables to estimate life expectancy at age 18 and years of life lost. We analysed the data separately by sex, and for people with and without a record of intellectual disability. We discuss the findings in the light of the prevalence of recorded diagnosis of autism in primary care compared to community estimates.

Findings

From a cohort of nearly 10 million people, we identified 17,130 participants diagnosed autistic without an intellectual disability (matched with 171,300 comparison participants), and 6450 participants diagnosed autistic with an intellectual disability (matched with 64,500 comparison participants). The apparent estimates indicated that people diagnosed with autism but not intellectual disability had 1.71 (95% CI: 1.39-2.11) times the mortality rate of people without these diagnoses. People diagnosed with autism and intellectual disability had 2.83 (95% CI: 2.33-3.43) times the mortality rate of people without these diagnoses. Likewise, the apparent reduction in life expectancy for people diagnosed with autism but not intellectual disability was 6.14 years (95% CI: 2.84-9.07) for men and 6.45 years (95% CI: 1.37-11.58 years) for women. The apparent reduction in life expectancy for people diagnosed with autism and intellectual disability was 7.28 years (95% CI: 3.78-10.27) for men and 14.59 years (95% CI: 9.45-19.02 years) for women. However, these findings are likely to be subject to exposure misclassification biases: very few autistic adults and older-adults have been diagnosed, meaning that we could only study a fraction of the total autistic population. Those who have been diagnosed may well be those with greater support needs and more co-occurring health conditions than autistic people on average.

Interpretation

The findings indicate that there is a group of autistic people who experience premature mortality, which is of significant concern. There is an urgent need for investigation into the reasons behind this. However, our estimates suggest that the widely reported statistic that autistic people live 16-years less on average is likely incorrect. Nine out of 10 autistic people may have been undiagnosed across the time-period studied. Hence, the results of our study do not generalise to all autistic people. Diagnosed autistic adults, and particularly older adults, are likely those with greater-than-average support needs. Therefore, we may have over-estimated the reduction in life expectancy experienced by autistic people on average. The larger reduction in life expectancy for women diagnosed with autism and intellectual disability vs. men may in part reflect disproportionate underdiagnosis of autism and/or intellectual disability in women.

Funding

Dunhill Medical Trust, Medical Research Council, National Institute for Health and Care Research, and the Royal College of Psychiatrists.

Autism in England: assessing underdiagnosis in a population-based cohort study of prospectively collected primary care data

Background

Autism has long been viewed as a paediatric condition, meaning that many autistic adults missed out on a diagnosis as children when autism was little known. We estimated numbers of diagnosed and undiagnosed autistic people in England, and examined how diagnostic rates differed by socio-demographic factors.

Methods

This population-based cohort study of prospectively collected primary care data from IQVIA Medical Research Data (IMRD) compared the prevalence of diagnosed autism to community prevalence to estimate underdiagnosis. 602,433 individuals registered at an English primary care practice in 2018 and 5,586,100 individuals registered between 2000 and 2018 were included.

Findings

Rates of diagnosed autism in children/young people were much higher than in adults/older adults. As of 2018, 2.94% of 10- to 14-year-olds had a diagnosis (1 in 34), vs. 0.02% aged 70+ (1 in 6000). Exploratory projections based on these data suggest that, as of 2018, 463,500 people (0.82% of the English population) may have been diagnosed autistic, and between 435,700 and 1,197,300 may be autistic and undiagnosed (59-72% of autistic people, 0.77%-2.12% of the English population). Age-related inequalities were also evident in new diagnoses (incidence): c.1 in 250 5- to 9-year-olds had a newly-recorded autism diagnosis in 2018, vs. c.1 in 4000 20- to 49-year-olds, and c.1 in 18,000 people aged 50+.

Interpretation

Substantial age-related differences in the proportions of people diagnosed suggest an urgent need to improve access to adult autism diagnostic services.

Funding

Dunhill Medical Trust, Economic and Social Research Council, Medical Research Council, National Institute for Health Research, the Wellcome Trust, and the Royal College of Psychiatrists.

Are students less likely to respond to routinely delivered psychological treatment? A retrospective cohort analysis

BACKGROUND

Depression and anxiety disorders are increasingly prevalent among university students, making the provision of effective treatment in this population a priority. Whilst campus-based services provide some psychological treatments, many students are treated by routine adult psychological treatment services which have no focus or adaptations to treatment for student populations. We aimed to compare psychological treatment outcomes between university students and young adults (aged 18-25) in employment to explore whether routinely delivered psychological interventions are equally effective for these groups, or whether students report poorer outcomes.

METHODS

A retrospective cohort was formed of 19,707 patients treated by eight National Health Service (NHS) Improving Access to Psychological Therapies (IAPT) services in England. Associations between student status (compared to same-age employed adults) and psychological treatment outcomes were explored using logistic regression models. Models were adjusted for important treatment, clinical and demographic characteristics, and propensity score matching was used to explore the robustness of effects.

RESULTS

Students and the employed comparison group were similar on baseline characteristics at assessment, but students were less likely to reliably recover (OR = 0.90 [95% CI = 0.83;0.96]) and reliably improve (OR = 0.91 [95% CI = 0.84;0.98]) by the end of treatment in fully adjusted models. Students and the employed group did not differ regarding the likelihood of deterioration (OR = 0.89 [95% CI = 0.78;1.02]) or treatment dropout (OR = 1.01 [95% CI = 0.93;1.11]).

CONCLUSIONS

Students appear at risk of poorer outcomes compared to employed younger adults when treated in routine psychological treatment services. Students may require additional support and treatment adaptations that account for student-specific stressors as this might improve psychological treatment outcomes.

Comparison of depression and anxiety symptom networks in reporters and non-reporters of lifetime trauma in two samples of differing severity

BACKGROUND

Reported trauma is associated with differences in the course and outcomes of depression and anxiety. However, no research has explored the association between reported trauma and patterns of clinically relevant symptoms of both depression and anxiety.

METHODS

We used network analysis to investigate associations between reported trauma and depression and anxiety symptom interactions in affected individuals from the Genetic Links to Anxiety and Depression (GLAD) Study (n = 17720), and population volunteers from the UK Biobank (n = 11120). Participants with current moderate symptoms of depression or anxiety were grouped into reporters and non-reporters of lifetime trauma. Networks of 16 depression and anxiety symptoms in the two groups were compared using the network comparison test.

RESULTS

In the GLAD Study, networks of reporters and non-reporters of lifetime trauma did not differ on any metric. In the UK Biobank, the symptom network of reporters had significantly greater density (7.80) than the network of non-reporters (7.05).

LIMITATIONS

The data collected in the GLAD Study and the UK Biobank are self-reported with validated or semi-validated questionnaires.

CONCLUSIONS

Reported lifetime trauma was associated with stronger interactions between symptoms of depression and anxiety in population volunteers. Differences between reporters and non-reporters may not be observed in individuals with severe depression and/or anxiety due to limited variance in the presentation of disorder.

Older adults respond better to psychological therapy than working-age adults: evidence from a large sample of mental health service attendees

BACKGROUND

Older adults commonly experience depression and anxiety, yet are under-represented in psychological treatment services. There is uncertainty about the outcomes from psychological therapies for older adults relative to working-age adults. This study explored: pre-treatment differences between older and working-age patients with depression or anxiety disorders; whether outcomes from psychological therapy differ between groups controlling for pre-treatment clinical severity, functioning, and socio-demographics; and whether the impact of a long-term health condition (LTC) on outcome differs by age.

METHODS

Data on >100,000 patients treated with psychological therapies in eight Improving Access to Psychological Therapies services were analyzed. We compared pre-treatment characteristics and therapy outcomes for older (≥65 years) and working-age (18-64 years) patients, and investigated associations between age and outcomes.

RESULTS

Older adults had less severe clinical presentations pre-treatment. In adjusted models older adults were more likely to reliably recover (OR=1.33(95%CI=1.24-1.43)), reliably improve (OR=1.34(95%CI =1.24-1.45)), and attrition was less likely (OR=0.48(95%CI =0.43-0.53)). Effects were more pronounced in patients with anxiety disorders compared to depression. Having an LTC was associated with a much lower likelihood of reliable recovery for working-age patients but had only a modest effect for older adults.

LIMITATIONS

There are potential selection biases affecting the characteristics of older people attending these services. Residual confounding cannot be ruled out due to limits on data available.

CONCLUSIONS

Older adults experienced better outcomes from psychological treatments than working-age adults. Given the deleterious effects if mental health conditions go untreated, increasing access to psychological therapies for older people should be an international priority.

Trends in depression & anxiety symptom severity among mental health service attendees during the COVID-19 pandemic

BACKGROUND

General population surveys have shown that some groups, particularly young women, experienced increased distress during nationally mandated restrictions to control the spread of COVID-19. However, there has been limited research on such trends among people with pre-existing mental health conditions, leaving mental health services ill equipped to plan for current and future lockdowns.

METHODS

Mean weekly scores on the GAD-7 and PHQ-9 between 01/01/2020-22/06/2020 (n=9,538 individuals) for all patients of two psychological treatment services (Improving Access to Psychological Therapies) in London, were compared to mean weekly scores from the same time periods in 2017-2019 (n=37,849). The proportion of scores which were above the clinical thresholds for 'caseness' each week were compared, and scores between groups based on gender, age group, and ethnicity, were also compared.

RESULTS

Confirmed community transmission in the UK (26/02/2020-03/03/2020) and the announcement of the national 'lockdown' (23/03/2020) were associated with significant increases in anxiety symptom scores. 'Lockdown' was associated with a decrease in depression scores. These changes were not maintained during lockdown. Significant increases in depression and anxiety were observed at week 23, as restrictions were eased.

LIMITATIONS

This was an exploratory analysis in two services only. Residual confounding and selection biases cannot be ruled out.

CONCLUSIONS

Differences in the weekly average symptom scores were short-term; they did not continue throughout 'lockdown' as might have been expected, except among older people. Replication of this study in other settings and investigating the potential benefits of more regular reviews or more intensive treatments for at-risk groups, are warranted.

What factors indicate prognosis for adults with depression in primary care? A protocol for meta-analyses of individual patient data using the Dep-GP database

Background: Pre-treatment severity is a key indicator of prognosis for those with depression. Knowledge is limited on how best to encompass severity of disorders. A number of non-severity related factors such as social support and life events are also indicators of prognosis. It is not clear whether this holds true after adjusting for pre-treatment severity as a) a depressive symptom scale score, and b) a broader construct encompassing symptom severity and related indicators: "disorder severity". In order to investigate this, data from the individual participants of clinical trials which have measured a breadth of "disorder severity" related factors are needed. Aims: 1) To assess the association between outcomes for adults seeking treatment for depression and the severity of depression pre-treatment, considered both as i) depressive symptom severity only and ii) "disorder severity" which includes depressive symptom severity and comorbid anxiety, chronicity, history of depression, history of previous treatment, functional impairment and health-related quality of life. 2) To determine whether i) social support, ii) life events, iii) alcohol misuse, and iv) demographic factors (sex, age, ethnicity, marital status, employment status, level of educational attainment, and financial wellbeing) are prognostic indicators of outcomes, independent of baseline "disorder severity" and the type of treatment received. Methods: Databases were searched for randomised clinical trials (RCTs) that recruited adults seeking treatment for depression from their general practitioners and used the same diagnostic and screening instrument to measure severity at baseline - the Revised Clinical Interview Schedule; outcome measures could differ between studies. Chief investigators of all studies meeting inclusion criteria were contacted and individual patient data (IPD) were requested. Conclusions: In total 15 RCTs met inclusion criteria. The Dep-GP database will include the 6271 participants from the 13 studies that provided IPD. This protocol outlines how these data will be analysed. Registration: PROSPERO CRD42019129512 (01/04/2019).

What factors indicate prognosis for adults with depression in primary care? A protocol for meta-analyses of individual patient data using the Dep-GP database

Background: Pre-treatment severity is a key indicator of prognosis for those with depression. Knowledge is limited on how best to encompass severity of disorders. A number of non-severity related factors such as social support and life events are also indicators of prognosis. It is not clear whether this holds true after adjusting for pre-treatment severity as a) a depressive symptom scale score, and b) a broader construct encompassing symptom severity and related indicators: "disorder severity". In order to investigate this, data from the individual participants of clinical trials which have measured a breadth of "disorder severity" related factors are needed. Aims: 1) To assess the association between outcomes for adults seeking treatment for depression and the severity of depression pre-treatment, considered both as i) depressive symptom severity only and ii) "disorder severity" which includes depressive symptom severity and comorbid anxiety, chronicity, history of depression, history of previous treatment, functional impairment and health-related quality of life. 2) To determine whether i) social support, ii) life events, iii) alcohol misuse, and iv) demographic factors (sex, age, ethnicity, marital status, employment status, level of educational attainment, and financial wellbeing) are prognostic indicators of outcomes, independent of baseline "disorder severity" and the type of treatment received. Methods: Databases were searched for randomised clinical trials (RCTs) that recruited adults seeking treatment for depression from their general practitioners and used the same diagnostic and screening instrument to measure severity at baseline - the Revised Clinical Interview Schedule; outcome measures could differ between studies. Chief investigators of all studies meeting inclusion criteria were contacted and individual patient data (IPD) were requested. Conclusions: In total 15 RCTs met inclusion criteria. The Dep-GP database will include the 6271 participants from the 13 studies that provided IPD. This protocol outlines how these data will be analysed. Registration: PROSPERO CRD42019129512 (01/04/2019).

What factors indicate prognosis for adults with depression in primary care? A protocol for meta-analyses of individual patient data using the Dep-GP database

Background: Pre-treatment severity is a key indicator of prognosis for those with depression. Knowledge is limited on how best to encompass severity of disorders. A number of non-severity related factors such as social support and life events are also indicators of prognosis. It is not clear whether this holds true after adjusting for pre-treatment severity as a) a depressive symptom scale score, and b) a broader construct encompassing symptom severity and related indicators: "disorder severity". In order to investigate this, data from the individual participants of clinical trials which have measured a breadth of "disorder severity" related factors are needed. Aims: 1) To assess the association between outcomes for adults seeking treatment for depression and the severity of depression pre-treatment, considered both as i) depressive symptom severity only and ii) "disorder severity" which includes depressive symptom severity and comorbid anxiety, chronicity, history of depression, history of previous treatment, functional impairment and health-related quality of life. 2) To determine whether i) social support, ii) life events, iii) alcohol misuse, and iv) demographic factors (sex, age, ethnicity, marital status, employment status, level of educational attainment, and financial wellbeing) are prognostic indicators of outcomes, independent of baseline "disorder severity" and the type of treatment received. Methods: Databases were searched for randomised clinical trials (RCTs) that recruited adults seeking treatment for depression from their general practitioners and used the same diagnostic and screening instrument to measure severity at baseline - the Revised Clinical Interview Schedule; outcome measures could differ between studies. Chief investigators of all studies meeting inclusion criteria were contacted and individual patient data (IPD) were requested. Conclusions: In total 13 RCTs were found to meet inclusion criteria. The Dep-GP database was formed from the 6271 participants. This protocol outlines how these data will be analysed. Registration: PROSPERO CRD42019129512 (01/04/2019).

Trajectories of depression and anxiety symptom change during psychological therapy

BACKGROUND

Forty-percent of the variance in psychological treatment outcomes is estimated to be explained by symptom change by the third treatment session. However, change may not be uniform across patient groups and symptom domains. This study aimed to identify subgroups of patients with different trajectories of depression and anxiety symptom change during psychological therapy and identify baseline patient characteristics associated with these trajectories.

METHODS

4394 patients attending two psychological treatment services completed sessional, self-report depression and anxiety measures. Trajectories of symptom change were investigated using latent class growth analysis. Multinomial logistic regression was used to explore associations between baseline patient characteristics and trajectory classes.

RESULTS

A number of distinct trajectories were identified. Anxiety symptom trajectories could be distinguished by the third treatment session, but for depression symptoms there was a class displaying limited change until session six followed by rapid improvement in symptoms thereafter. Compared to the non-responding trajectories, depression and anxiety trajectories indicating treatment response were associated with lower baseline severity, better social functioning and lower incidence of phobic anxiety, but not with medication prescription status.

LIMITATIONS

Data came from two services, so wider generalisability is unknown. Predictors were limited to data routinely collected in the services; unmeasured factors may have improved the prediction of trajectories.

CONCLUSIONS

Baseline characteristics and symptom change early in therapy can help identify different trajectories of symptom change. This knowledge could aid clinical decision making and help improve treatment outcomes. By ignoring distinct trajectories, clinicians may incorrectly consider patients as "not-on-track" and unnecessarily change or end therapy that would otherwise benefit patients.

Influence of storage volume on functional recovery and metabolism of explanted hearts following cold cardioplegia: studies in the rat

STUDY OBJECTIVE

The aim was to characterise the metabolic and functional recovery after extended periods of hypothermic storage of hearts in varying volume of oxygenated cardioplegic solution.

DESIGN

Explanted rat hearts were arrested with and stored in 5, 10, or 100 ml of oxygenated (95% O2: 5% CO2) St Thomas's Hospital cardioplegic solution No 2 (STH) at 4 degrees C for 5 or 10 h. The isolated working heart model was used to determine the cardiac functions and the degree of functional recovery was expressed as a percentage of the prearrest value. Groups of hearts (n = 6) were rapidly freeze-clamped immediately after arrest, at end of storage, or after 30 min reperfusion for quantitation of the high energy phosphate content.

SUBJECTS

84 Male albino Wistar rats weighing 280 to 320 g (heart weight = 1.25 g) were used.

MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS

All hearts in the three different volumes of STH recovered 80% or more [mean 90 (SEM 3)%] of their prearrest aortic output after 5 h storage but after 10 h, recovery was significantly reduced [23(7)%] with no significant difference among groups. During 5 h storage the phosphocreatine content of the hearts rapidly declined from 33.2(3.1) to 5.0(0.2) mumol.g-1 dry wt in the 5 ml group but only to 16.7(1.2) mumol.g-1 dry wt in the 100 ml group. Similarly ATP preservation was improved in the latter group (81% v 63%, p less than 0.02). Extending the storage time to 10 h resulted in a further decline in high energy phosphates (ATP + phosphocreatine) to 30% of normal values in the 100 ml group and to 9% in the 5 ml group (p less than 0.01). While the total nucleotide pool did not decrease the major catabolite was inosine monophosphate (IMP) which comprised 46% of the nucleotide pool in all groups. The extent of cardiac function recovered was correlated inversely with tissue IMP (R = 0.859) and positively with ATP (R = 0.835) but showed no significant correlations with the postischaemic ADP, AMP, or phosphocreatine.

CONCLUSIONS

Increased storage volume of oxygenated cardioplegic solution is superior in the preservation of ATP and phosophocreatine content in donor hearts with full recovery of cardiac function after the first 5 h of hypothermic (4 degrees C) storage.

Subcellular distribution of energy metabolites in the pre-ischaemic and post-ischaemic perfused working rat heart

Isolated working rat hearts were subjected to 20 min of global ischaemia and either 5 min or 15 min of reperfusion. The subcellular distribution of ATP, ADP, AMP, phosphocreatine and Pi were determined before and after ischaemia by the method of non-aqueous tissue fractionation. Ventricular function and the cytosolic, mitochondrial and ATPase-associated compartmentation of metabolites were measured. After 5 min of reperfusion, only 13 +/- 9% of the pre-ischaemic contractile function was restored compared to 67 +/- 8% after 15 min reperfusion. ATP was reduced in all cellular compartments after 5 min of reperfusion but was only decreased from pre-ischaemic values in the cytosolic compartment after 15 min of reperfusion (17.1 +/- 3.9 nmol/mg vs. 4.3 +/- 1.5 nmol/mg total protein; P less than 0.05). The mitochondrial [ATP]/[ADP] was reduced from a normal value of 4.36 to 1.79 after 5 min but recovered to 4.62 after 15 min of reperfusion. Most of the Pi was located in the mitochondria or with the ATPase fraction of the cell, with only 16% of the total Pi free in the cytosol. This study indicates that the capacity of the heart to recover function may be compromised during early reperfusion by a 59% increase in mitochondrial phosphate content and during late reperfusion by a reduced cytosolic/mitochondrial concentration ratio of both ATP (from 0.85 to 0.19) and phosphocreatine (from 3.9 to 1.24).

Functional and metabolic responses of the isolated rat heart to changes in circulating inorganic phosphate concentration

Normoxic isolated rat hearts were perfused for 30 or 60 min with Krebs-Henseleit bicarbonate buffer (KHB) (in which the Pi concentration was adjusted to 0, 1.2, 2.4, or 10 mM) in both the presence and the absence of glucose as exogenous substrate. Functional performance and coronary flow were monitored throughout the perfusion period, and at its conclusion tissue high-energy phosphates (HEP), glycogen, Pi, and calcium were determined. In the presence of glucose, both developed pressure and coronary flow were significantly (P less than 0.05) reduced by perfusion with 10 mM Pi, while heart rate and energy status were unchanged. Tissue Pi levels were directly related to perfusate concentrations, with an apparent loss of 34% from hearts perfused with 0 mM Pi and a gain of 27% in hearts perfused with 10 mM Pi (which also caused a highly significant [P less than 0.01] uptake of calcium). HEP (ATP and creatine phosphate [CP]) were decreased after 60 min of perfusion with 0 mM Pi. In the absence of glucose, coronary flow was again significantly reduced by perfusion with 10 mM Pi. HEP were significantly (P less than 0.05) conserved and uptake of Pi and calcium was greater than in the presence of glucose. Equivalent free-Ca2+/normal Pi controls for the 10 mM Pi showed that the observed functional effects were not due to a lowering of perfusate free-Ca2+ by the raised Pi level. The effect on coronary flow appears to involve, primarily, a vasomotor mechanism.