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Valentine GP, Lu X, Childress ES, Dolloff CA, Hitt NP, Kulp MA, Letcher BH, Pregler KC, Rash JM, Hooten MB, Kanno Y. Spatial asynchrony and cross-scale climate interactions in populations of a coldwater stream fish. Glob Chang Biol 2024; 30:e17029. [PMID: 37987546 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.17029] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/27/2023] [Revised: 09/07/2023] [Accepted: 10/07/2023] [Indexed: 11/22/2023]
Abstract
Climate change affects populations over broad geographic ranges due to spatially autocorrelated abiotic conditions known as the Moran effect. However, populations do not always respond to broad-scale environmental changes synchronously across a landscape. We combined multiple datasets for a retrospective analysis of time-series count data (5-28 annual samples per segment) at 144 stream segments dispersed over nearly 1,000 linear kilometers of range to characterize the population structure and scale of spatial synchrony across the southern native range of a coldwater stream fish (brook trout, Salvelinus fontinalis), which is sensitive to stream temperature and flow variations. Spatial synchrony differed by life stage and geographic region: it was stronger in the juvenile life stage than in the adult life stage and in the northern sub-region than in the southern sub-region. Spatial synchrony of trout populations extended to 100-200 km but was much weaker than that of climate variables such as temperature, precipitation, and stream flow. Early life stage abundance changed over time due to annual variation in summer temperature and winter and spring stream flow conditions. Climate effects on abundance differed between sub-regions and among local populations within sub-regions, indicating multiple cross-scale interactions where climate interacted with local habitat to generate only a modest pattern of population synchrony over space. Overall, our analysis showed higher degrees of response heterogeneity of local populations to climate variation and consequently population asynchrony than previously shown based on analysis of individual, geographically restricted datasets. This response heterogeneity indicates that certain local segments characterized by population asynchrony and resistance to climate variation could represent unique populations of this iconic native coldwater fish that warrant targeted conservation. Advancing the conservation of this species can include actions that identify such priority populations and incorporate them into landscape-level conservation planning. Our approach is applicable to other widespread aquatic species sensitive to climate change.
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Affiliation(s)
- George P Valentine
- Department of Fish, Wildlife, and Conservation Biology and Graduate Degree Program in Ecology, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, Colorado, USA
| | - Xinyi Lu
- Department of Fish, Wildlife, and Conservation Biology, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, Colorado, USA
| | | | - C Andrew Dolloff
- U.S. Forest Service Southern Research Station, Blacksburg, Virginia, USA
| | - Nathaniel P Hitt
- U.S. Geological Survey Eastern Ecological Science Center, Kearneysville, West Virginia, USA
| | - Matthew A Kulp
- Great Smoky Mountains National Park, Gatlinburg, Tennessee, USA
| | - Benjamin H Letcher
- U.S. Geological Survey Eastern Ecological Science Center, Kearneysville, West Virginia, USA
| | - Kasey C Pregler
- Department of Environmental Science, Policy, and Management, University of California Berkeley, Berkeley, California, USA
| | - Jacob M Rash
- North Carolina Wildlife Resources Commission, Marion, North Carolina, USA
| | - Mevin B Hooten
- Department of Statistics and Data Sciences, The University of Texas at Austin, Austin, Texas, USA
| | - Yoichiro Kanno
- Department of Fish, Wildlife, and Conservation Biology and Graduate Degree Program in Ecology, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, Colorado, USA
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Pregler KC, Lu X, Valentine GP, Kim S, Kanno Y. Temperature variation generates interspecific synchrony but spatial asynchrony in survival for freshwater fish communities. Ecol Evol 2023; 13:e10700. [PMID: 37964790 PMCID: PMC10641305 DOI: 10.1002/ece3.10700] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/18/2023] [Revised: 09/08/2023] [Accepted: 10/23/2023] [Indexed: 11/16/2023] Open
Abstract
Identifying environmental drivers of demographic variation is key to predicting community-level impacts in response to global change. Climate conditions can synchronize population trends and can occur both spatially for populations of the same species, and across multiple species within the same local community. The aim of this study was to investigate patterns of temporal variation in survival for freshwater fish communities in two geographically close but isolated sites and to understand the amount of variation accounted for by abiotic covariates including metrics of water temperature and stream flow. Using mark-recapture data, we estimated bi-monthly apparent survival in a Bayesian Cormack-Jolly-Seber framework. The model included random effects to quantify temporal variance to understand species synchrony with the rest of the fish community and between sites. Study species included bluehead chub (Nocomis leptocephalus), creek chub (Semotilus atromaculatus), and striped jumprock (Moxostoma rupiscartes) in the southeastern USA. Results showed that survival varied over time and periods of low survival were associated with higher mean water temperature. However, temporal patterns of survival differed among species and between sites, where survival was synchronous among species within a site but asynchronous between sites for the same species despite their spatial proximity. Study streams differed in summer thermal regimes, which resulted in contrasting summer survival patterns, suggesting sensitivity of these fishes to warming. We found that interspecific synchrony was greater than spatial synchrony, where regional drivers such as temperature may interact with local habitat leading to differences in survival patterns at fine spatial scales. Finally, these findings show that changes in the timing and magnitude of environmental conditions can be critical in limiting vital rates and that some populations may be more resilient to climate variation than others.
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Affiliation(s)
- Kasey C. Pregler
- Department of Fish, Wildlife, and Conservation BiologyColorado State UniversityFort CollinsColoradoUSA
- Department of Forestry and Environmental ConservationClemson UniversityClemsonSouth CarolinaUSA
| | - Xinyi Lu
- Department of Fish, Wildlife, and Conservation BiologyColorado State UniversityFort CollinsColoradoUSA
| | - George P. Valentine
- Department of Fish, Wildlife, and Conservation BiologyColorado State UniversityFort CollinsColoradoUSA
- Graduate Degree Program in EcologyColorado State UniversityFort CollinsColoradoUSA
| | - Seoghyun Kim
- Department of Fish, Wildlife, and Conservation BiologyColorado State UniversityFort CollinsColoradoUSA
- Department of Forestry and Environmental ConservationClemson UniversityClemsonSouth CarolinaUSA
| | - Yoichiro Kanno
- Department of Fish, Wildlife, and Conservation BiologyColorado State UniversityFort CollinsColoradoUSA
- Department of Forestry and Environmental ConservationClemson UniversityClemsonSouth CarolinaUSA
- Graduate Degree Program in EcologyColorado State UniversityFort CollinsColoradoUSA
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Pregler KC, Obedzinski M, Gilbert‐Horvath EA, White B, Carlson SM, Garza JC. Assisted gene flow from outcrossing shows the potential for genetic rescue in an endangered salmon population. Conserv Lett 2022. [DOI: 10.1111/conl.12934] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/24/2022] Open
Affiliation(s)
- Kasey C. Pregler
- Department of Environmental Science, Policy, and Management University of California, Berkeley Berkeley California USA
| | - Mariska Obedzinski
- Department of Environmental Science, Policy, and Management University of California, Berkeley Berkeley California USA
- California Sea Grant Windsor California USA
| | - Elizabeth A. Gilbert‐Horvath
- Southwest Fisheries Science Center National Marine Fisheries Service and University of California, Santa Cruz Santa Cruz California USA
| | - Benjamin White
- U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Don Clausen/Warm Springs Hatchery Geyserville California USA
| | - Stephanie M. Carlson
- Department of Environmental Science, Policy, and Management University of California, Berkeley Berkeley California USA
| | - John Carlos Garza
- Southwest Fisheries Science Center National Marine Fisheries Service and University of California, Santa Cruz Santa Cruz California USA
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Kanno Y, Kim S, Pregler KC. Sub‐seasonal correlation between growth and survival in three sympatric aquatic ectotherms. OIKOS 2022. [DOI: 10.1111/oik.09685] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/23/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Yoichiro Kanno
- Dept of Fish, Wildlife and Conservation Biology, Colorado State Univ. Fort Collins CO USA
- Dept of Forestry and Environmental Conservation, Clemson Univ. Clemson SC USA
| | - Seoghyun Kim
- Dept of Fish, Wildlife and Conservation Biology, Colorado State Univ. Fort Collins CO USA
- Dept of Forestry and Environmental Conservation, Clemson Univ. Clemson SC USA
| | - Kasey C. Pregler
- Dept of Fish, Wildlife and Conservation Biology, Colorado State Univ. Fort Collins CO USA
- Dept of Forestry and Environmental Conservation, Clemson Univ. Clemson SC USA
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Kim S, Pregler KC, Cushman EL, Darden TL, Kanno Y. Behavior outweighs body size in mediating male reproductive success in a nest-building fish, bluehead chub. Behav Ecol Sociobiol 2020. [DOI: 10.1007/s00265-020-02933-x] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/01/2022]
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Cushman EL, Métris KLK, Kanno Y, Pregler KC, Peoples BK, Darden TL. Optimization of a Suite of Microsatellite Markers for Nocomis leptocephalus (Bluehead Chub) and Genetic Characterization of Two Populations in South Carolina. SOUTHEAST NAT 2020. [DOI: 10.1656/058.019.0202] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/20/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Elizabeth L. Cushman
- South Carolina Department of Natural Resources, Hollings Marine Laboratory, 331 Fort Johnson Road, Charleston, SC 29412
| | - Kimberly L. Kanapeckas Métris
- South Carolina Department of Natural Resources, Hollings Marine Laboratory, 331 Fort Johnson Road, Charleston, SC 29412
| | - Yoichiro Kanno
- Department of Forestry and Environmental Conservation, Clemson University, 261 Lehotsky Hall, Clemson, SC 29634
| | - Kasey C. Pregler
- Department of Forestry and Environmental Conservation, Clemson University, 261 Lehotsky Hall, Clemson, SC 29634
| | - Brandon K. Peoples
- Department of Forestry and Environmental Conservation, Clemson University, 261 Lehotsky Hall, Clemson, SC 29634
| | - Tanya L. Darden
- South Carolina Department of Natural Resources, Hollings Marine Laboratory, 331 Fort Johnson Road, Charleston, SC 29412
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Pregler KC, Kanno Y, Rankin D, Coombs JA, Whiteley AR. Characterizing genetic integrity of rear-edge trout populations in the southern Appalachians. CONSERV GENET 2018. [DOI: 10.1007/s10592-018-1116-1] [Citation(s) in RCA: 9] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/28/2022]
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