A Model Implied Instrumental Variable Approach to Exploratory Factor Analysis (MIIV-EFA)

Spearman (Am J Psychol 15(1):201-293, 1904. https://doi.org/10.2307/1412107 ) marks the birth of factor analysis. Many articles and books have extended his landmark paper in permitting multiple factors and determining the number of factors, developing ideas about simple structure and factor rotation, and distinguishing between confirmatory and exploratory factor analysis (CFA and EFA). We propose a new model implied instrumental variable (MIIV) approach to EFA that allows intercepts for the measurement equations, correlated common factors, correlated errors, standard errors of factor loadings and measurement intercepts, overidentification tests of equations, and a procedure for determining the number of factors. We also permit simpler structures by removing nonsignificant loadings. Simulations of factor analysis models with and without cross-loadings demonstrate the impressive performance of the MIIV-EFA procedure in recovering the correct number of factors and in recovering the primary and secondary loadings. For example, in nearly all replications MIIV-EFA finds the correct number of factors when N is 100 or more. Even the primary and secondary loadings of the most complex models were recovered when the sample sizes were at least 500. We discuss limitations and future research areas. Two appendices describe alternative MIIV-EFA algorithms and the sensitivity of the algorithm to cross-loadings.

Predicting student outcomes using digital logs of learning behaviors: Review, current standards, and suggestions for future work

Using traces of behaviors to predict outcomes is useful in varied contexts ranging from buyer behaviors to behaviors collected from smart-home devices. Increasingly, higher education systems have been using Learning Management System (LMS) digital data to capture and understand students' learning and well-being. Researchers in the social sciences are increasingly interested in the potential of using digital log data to predict outcomes and design interventions. Using LMS data for predicting the likelihood of students' success in for-credit college courses provides a useful example of how social scientists can use these techniques on a variety of data types. Here, we provide a primer on how LMS data can be feature-mapped and analyzed to accomplish these goals. We begin with a literature review summarizing current approaches to analyzing LMS data, then discuss ethical issues of privacy when using demographic data and equitable model building. In the second part of the paper, we provide an overview of popular machine learning algorithms and review analytic considerations such as feature generation, assessment of model performance, and sampling techniques. Finally, we conclude with an empirical example demonstrating the ability of LMS data to predict student success, summarizing important features and assessing model performance across different model specifications.

From the Individual to the Group: Using Idiographic Analyses and Two-Stage Random Effects Meta-Analysis to Obtain Population Level Inferences for within-Person Processes

In psychology, the use of portable technology and wearable devices to ease participant burden in data collection is on the rise. This creates increased interest in collecting real-time or near real-time data from individuals within their natural environments. As a result, vast amounts of observational time series data are generated. Often, motivation for collecting this data hinges on understanding within-person processes that underlie psychological phenomena. Motivated by the body of Dr. Peter Molenaar's life work calling for analytical approaches that consider potential heterogeneity and non-ergodicity, the focus of this paper is on using idiographic analyses to generate population inferences for within-person processes. Meta-analysis techniques using one-stage and two-stage random effects meta-analysis as implemented in single-case experimental designs are presented. The case for preferring a two-stage approach for meta-analysis of single-subject observational time series data is made and demonstrated using an empirical example. This provides a novel implementation of the methodology as prior implementations focus on applications to short time series with experimental designs. Inspired by Dr. Molenaar's work, we describe how an approach, two-stage random effects meta-analysis (2SRE-MA), aligns with recent calls to consider idiographic approaches when making population-level inferences regarding within-person processes.

Homogeneity Assumptions in the Analysis of Dynamic Processes

With the increased use of time series data in human research, ranging from ecological momentary assessments to data passively obtained, researchers can explore dynamic processes more than ever before. An important question researchers must ask themselves is, do I think all individuals have similar processes? If not, how different, and in what ways? Dr. Peter Molenaar's work set the foundation to answer these questions by providing insight into individual-level analysis for processes that are assumed to differ across individuals in at least some aspects. Currently, such assumptions do not have a clear taxonomy regarding the degree of homogeneity in the patterns of relations among variables and the corresponding parameter values. This paper provides the language with which researchers can discuss assumptions inherent in their analyses. We define strict homogeneity as the assumption that all individuals have an identical pattern of relations as well as parameter values; pattern homogeneity assumes the same pattern of relations but parameter values can differ; weak homogeneity assumes there are some (but not all) generalizable aspects of the process; and no homogeneity explicitly assumes no population-level similarities in dynamic processes across individuals. We demonstrate these assumptions with an empirical data set of daily emotions in couples.

Dynamic processes in behavioral activation therapy for anhedonic adolescents: Modeling common and patient-specific relations

OBJECTIVE

Behavioral activation (BA) is a brief intervention for depression encouraging gradual and systematic re-engagement with rewarding activities and behaviors. Given this treatment focus, BA may be particularly beneficial for adolescents with prominent anhedonia, a predictor of poor treatment response and common residual symptom. We applied group iterative multiple model estimation (GIMME) to ecological momentary assessment (EMA) treatment data to investigate common and person-specific processes during BA for anhedonic adolescents.

METHOD

Thirty-nine adolescents (Mage = 15.7 years old, 67% female, 81% White) with elevated anhedonia (Snaith-Hamilton Pleasure Scale) were enrolled in a 12-week BA trial, with weekly anhedonia assessments. EMA surveys were triggered every other week (2-3 surveys per day) throughout treatment assessing current positive affect (PA) and negative affect (NA), engagement in pleasurable activities and social interactions, anticipatory pleasure, rumination, and recent pleasurable and stressful experiences.

RESULTS

A multilevel model revealed significant decreases in anhedonia, t(25.5) = -4.76, p < .001, over the 12-week trial. GIMME results indicated substantial heterogeneity in variable networks across patients. PA was the variable with the greatest number (22% of all paths vs. 11% for NA) of predictive paths to other symptoms (i.e., highest out-degree). Higher PA (but not NA) out-degree was associated with greater anhedonia improvement, t(25.8) = -2.22, p = .035.

CONCLUSIONS

Results revealed substantial heterogeneity in variable relations across patients, which may obscure the search for common processes of change in BA. PA may be a particularly important treatment target for anhedonic adolescents in BA. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2023 APA, all rights reserved).

Blind Subgrouping of Task-based fMRI

Significant heterogeneity in network structures reflecting individuals' dynamic processes can exist within subgroups of people (e.g., diagnostic category, gender). This makes it difficult to make inferences regarding these predefined subgroups. For this reason, researchers sometimes wish to identify subsets of individuals who have similarities in their dynamic processes regardless of any predefined category. This requires unsupervised classification of individuals based on similarities in their dynamic processes, or equivalently, in this case, similarities in their network structures of edges. The present paper tests a recently developed algorithm, S-GIMME, that takes into account heterogeneity across individuals with the aim of providing subgroup membership and precise information about the specific network structures that differentiate subgroups. The algorithm has previously provided robust and accurate classification when evaluated with large-scale simulation studies but has not yet been validated on empirical data. Here, we investigate S-GIMME's ability to differentiate, in a purely data-driven manner, between brain states explicitly induced through different tasks in a new fMRI dataset. The results provide new evidence that the algorithm was able to resolve, in an unsupervised data-driven manner, the differences between different active brain states in empirical fMRI data to segregate individuals and arrive at subgroup-specific network structures of edges. The ability to arrive at subgroups that correspond to empirically designed fMRI task conditions, with no biasing or priors, suggests this data-driven approach can be a powerful addition to existing methods for unsupervised classification of individuals based on their dynamic processes.

Social goals in girls transitioning to adolescence: associations with psychopathology and brain network connectivity

The motivation to socially connect with peers increases during adolescence in parallel with changes in neurodevelopment. These changes in social motivation create opportunities for experiences that can impact risk for psychopathology, but the specific motivational presentations that confer greater psychopathology risk are not fully understood. To address this issue, we used a latent profile analysis to identify the multidimensional presentations of self-reported social goals in a sample of 220 girls (9-15 years old, M = 11.81, SD = 1.81) that was enriched for internalizing symptoms, and tested the association between social goal profiles and psychopathology. Associations between social goals and brain network connectivity were also examined in a subsample of 138 youth. Preregistered analyses revealed four unique profiles of social goal presentations in these girls. Greater psychopathology was associated with heightened social goals such that higher clinical symptoms were related to a greater desire to attain social competence, avoid negative feedback and gain positive feedback from peers. The profiles endorsing these excessive social goals were characterized by denser connections among social-affective and cognitive control brain regions. These findings thus provide preliminary support for adolescent-onset changes in motivating factors supporting social engagement that may contribute to risk for psychopathology in vulnerable girls.

Unsupervised classification reveals consistency and degeneracy in neural network patterns of emotion

In the present study, we used an unsupervised classification algorithm to reveal both consistency and degeneracy in neural network connectivity during anger and anxiety. Degeneracy refers to the ability of different biological pathways to produce the same outcomes. Previous research is suggestive of degeneracy in emotion, but little research has explicitly examined whether degenerate functional connectivity patterns exist for emotion categories such as anger and anxiety. Twenty-four subjects underwent functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) while listening to unpleasant music and self-generating experiences of anger and anxiety. A data-driven model building algorithm with unsupervised classification (subgrouping Group Iterative Multiple Model Estimation) identified patterns of connectivity among 11 intrinsic networks that were associated with anger vs anxiety. As predicted, degenerate functional connectivity patterns existed within these overarching consistent patterns. Degenerate patterns were not attributable to differences in emotional experience or other individual-level factors. These findings are consistent with the constructionist account that emotions emerge from flexible functional neuronal assemblies and that emotion categories such as anger and anxiety each describe populations of highly variable instances.

Estimating both directed and undirected contemporaneous relations in time series data using hybrid-group iterative multiple model estimation

Researchers across varied fields increasingly are collecting and analyzing intensive longitudinal data (ILD) to examine processes across time at the individual level. Two types of relations are typically examined: lagged and contemporaneous. Lagged relations capture how variables at a prior time point can be used to explain variance in variables at a later time point. These are always modeled using auto- and cross-regressions by means of vector autoregression (VAR). By contrast, there are two types of relations commonly used to model the contemporaneous relations, which model how variables relate instantaneously. Until now, researchers must opt to either model contemporaneous relations as undirected relations among residuals (e.g., partial or full correlations) or as directed relations among the variables (e.g., paths or regressions). The choice for how to model contemporaneous relations has implications for inferences as well as the potential to introduce bias in the VAR lagged relations if the wrong type of relation is used. This article introduces a novel data-driven method, hybrid-group iterative multiple model estimation (GIMME), that provides a solution to the problem of having to choose one or the other type of contemporaneous relation to model. The modeling framework utilized in hybrid-GIMME allows for both types of contemporaneous relations in addition to the standard VAR relations. Both simulated and empirical data were used to test the performance of hybrid-GIMME. Results suggest this is a robust method for recovering contemporaneous relations in an exploratory manner, particularly with an ample number of time points per person. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2022 APA, all rights reserved).

Shared and individual-specific daily stress-reactivity in a cross-diagnostic at-risk sample

Altered stress-reactivity may represent a general risk factor for psychopathology. In a broad at-risk sample, we examined (a) how stress and mild, daily expressions of psychopathology were interrelated over time, (b) whether we could detect subgroups with similar dynamics between stress and daily expressions of psychopathology (i.e., stress-reactivity), and (c) whether stress-reactivity was associated with psychopathology and social functioning. One hundred twenty-two young adults (43.4% women, mean age 23.6) at risk for developing a wide range of psychopathology completed a 6-month daily diary study. We used group iterative multiple model estimation (GIMME) to identify temporal associations between event stress and 11 mild expressions of psychopathology (e.g., feeling down, restlessness) at group, subgroup, and individual levels. Stress was associated with feeling irritated during the same day for >70% of individuals, and with feeling down and worrying during the same day for >50% of individuals. No stable subgroups characterized by similar daily stress-reactivity were identified. Instead, we observed 71 different stress-reactivity patterns in 122 individuals. Average daily event stress, but not overall stress-reactivity (weighted stress-response), was associated with psychopathology severity and social dysfunction. This study showed important similarities, as well as many differences between individuals, in terms of the impact of stress on mild expressions of psychopathology in daily life. Clustering based on similar stress-reactivity did not lead to stable subgroups. Finally, average daily stress levels, but not daily stress-reactivity, were associated with psychopathologic severity and social dysfunction. Findings highlight the importance of considering heterogeneity in stress-reactivity, but also challenges for identifying generalizable processes in doing so. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2022 APA, all rights reserved).

Neural connectivity underlying adolescent social learning in sibling dyads

Social learning theory posits that adolescents learn to adopt social norms by observing the behaviors of others and internalizing the associated outcomes. However, the underlying neural processes by which social learning occurs is less well-understood, despite extensive neurobiological reorganization and a peak in social influence sensitivity during adolescence. Forty-four adolescents (Mage = 12.2 years) completed an fMRI scan while observing their older sibling within four years of age (Mage = 14.3 years) of age complete a risky decision-making task. Group iterative multiple model estimation (GIMME) was used to examine patterns of directional brain region connectivity supporting social learning. We identified group-level neural pathways underlying social observation including the anterior insula to the anterior cingulate cortex and mentalizing regions to social cognition regions. We also found neural states based on adolescent sensitivity to social learning via age, gender, modeling, differentiation, and behavior. Adolescents who were more likely to be influenced elicited neurological up-regulation whereas adolescents who were less likely to be socially influenced elicited neurological down-regulation during risk-taking. These findings highlight patterns of how adolescents process information while a salient influencer takes risks, as well as salient neural pathways that are dependent on similarity factors associated with social learning theory.

A Square-Root Second-Order Extended Kalman Filtering Approach for Estimating Smoothly Time-Varying Parameters

Researchers collecting intensive longitudinal data (ILD) are increasingly looking to model psychological processes, such as emotional dynamics, that organize and adapt across time in complex and meaningful ways. This is also the case for researchers looking to characterize the impact of an intervention on individual behavior. To be useful, statistical models must be capable of characterizing these processes as complex, time-dependent phenomenon, otherwise only a fraction of the system dynamics will be recovered. In this paper we introduce a Square-Root Second-Order Extended Kalman Filtering approach for estimating smoothly time-varying parameters. This approach is capable of handling dynamic factor models where the relations between variables underlying the processes of interest change in a manner that may be difficult to specify in advance. We examine the performance of our approach in a Monte Carlo simulation and show the proposed algorithm accurately recovers the unobserved states in the case of a bivariate dynamic factor model with time-varying dynamics and treatment effects. Furthermore, we illustrate the utility of our approach in characterizing the time-varying effect of a meditation intervention on day-to-day emotional experiences.

Path and Directionality Discovery in Individual Dynamic Models: A Regularized Unified Structural Equation Modeling Approach for Hybrid Vector Autoregression

There recently has been growing interest in the study of psychological and neurological processes at an individual level. One goal in such endeavors is to construct person-specific dynamic assessments using time series techniques such as Vector Autoregressive (VAR) models. However, two problems exist with current VAR specifications: (1) VAR models are restricted in that contemporaneous relations are typically modeled either as undirected relations among residuals or directed relations among observed variables, but not both; (2) current estimation frameworks are limited by the reliance on stepwise model building procedures. This study adopts a new modeling approach. We first extended the current unified SEM (uSEM) framework, a widely used structural VAR model, to a hybrid representation (i.e., "huSEM") to include both undirected and directed contemporaneous effects, and then replaced the stepwise modeling with a LASSO-type regularization for a global search of the optimal sparse model. Our simulation study showed that regularized huSEM performed uniformly the best over alternative VAR representations and/or modeling approaches, with respect to accurately recovering the presence and directionality of hybrid relations and reliably removing false relations when the data are generated to have two types of contemporaneous relations. The present study to our knowledge is the first application of the recently developed regularized SEM technique to the estimation of huSEM, which points to a promising future for statistical learning in psychometric models.

Detecting Task-Dependent Functional Connectivity in Group Iterative Multiple Model Estimation with Person-Specific Hemodynamic Response Functions

Introduction: Group iterative multiple model estimation (GIMME) has proven to be a reliable data-driven method to arrive at functional connectivity maps that represent associations between brain regions across time in groups and individuals. However, to date, GIMME has not been able to model time-varying task-related effects. This article introduces HRF-GIMME, an extension of GIMME that enables the modeling of the direct and modulatory effects of a task on functional magnetic resonance imaging data collected by using event-related designs. Critically, hemodynamic response function (HRF)-GIMME incorporates person-specific modeling of the HRF to accommodate known variability in onset delay and shape. Methods: After an introduction of the technical aspects of HRF-GIMME, the performance of HRF-GIMME is evaluated via both a simulation study and application to empirical data. The simulation study assesses the sensitivity and specificity of HRF-GIMME by using data simulated from one slow and two rapid event-related designs, and HRF-GIMME is then applied to two empirical data sets from similar designs to evaluate performance in recovering known neural circuitry. Results: HRF-GIMME showed high sensitivity and specificity across all simulated conditions, and it performed well in the recovery of expected relations between convolved task vectors and brain regions in both simulated and empirical data, particularly for the slow event-related design. Conclusion: Results from simulated and empirical data indicate that HRF-GIMME is a powerful new tool for obtaining directed functional connectivity maps of intrinsic and task-related connections that is able to uncover what is common across the sample as well as crucial individual-level path connections and estimates. Impact statement Group iterative multiple model estimation (GIMME) is a reliable method for creating functional connectivity maps of the connections between brain regions across time, and it is able to detect what is common across the sample and what is shared between subsets of participants, as well as individual-level path estimates. However, historically, GIMME does not model task-related effects. The novel HRF-GIMME algorithm enables the modeling of direct and modulatory task effects through individual-level estimation of the hemodynamic response function (HRF), presenting a powerful new tool for assessing task effects on functional connectivity networks in functional magnetic resonance imaging data.

Deep learning: A primer for psychologists

Deep learning has revolutionized predictive modeling in topics such as computer vision and natural language processing but is not commonly applied to psychological data. In an effort to bring the benefits of deep learning to psychologists, we provide an overview of deep learning for researchers who have a working knowledge of linear regression. We first discuss several benefits of the deep learning approach to predictive modeling. We then present three basic deep learning models that generalize linear regression: the feedforward neural network (FNN), the recurrent neural network (RNN), and the convolutional neural network (CNN). We include concrete toy examples with R code to demonstrate how each model may be applied to answer prediction-focused research questions using common data types collected by psychologists. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2021 APA, all rights reserved).

Parsing Heterogeneity in Autism Spectrum Disorder and Attention-Deficit/Hyperactivity Disorder with Individual Connectome Mapping

Traditional diagnostic systems for neurodevelopmental disorders define diagnostic categories that are heterogeneous in behavior and underlying neurobiological alterations. The goal of this study was to parse heterogeneity in a core executive function (EF), cognitive flexibility, in children with a range of abilities (N = 132; children with autism spectrum disorder, attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder [ADHD], and typically developing children) using directed functional connectivity profiles derived from resting-state functional magnetic resonance imaging data. Brain regions activated in response to a cognitive flexibility task in adults were used to guide region-of-interest selection to estimate individual connectivity profiles in this study. We expected to find subgroups of children who differed in their network connectivity metrics and symptom measures. Unexpectedly, we did not find a stable or valid subgrouping solution, which suggests that categorical models of the neural substrates of cognitive flexibility in children may be invalid. Exploratory analyses revealed dimensional associations between network connectivity metrics and ADHD symptomatology and EF ability across the entire sample. Results shed light on the validity of conceptualizing the neural substrates of cognitive flexibility categorically in children. Ultimately, this work may provide a foundation for the development of a revised nosology focused on neurobiological substrates as an alternative to traditional symptom-based classification systems.

Personalized models of psychopathology as contextualized dynamic processes: An example from individuals with borderline personality disorder

OBJECTIVE

Psychopathology research has relied on discrete diagnoses, which neglects the unique manifestations of each individual's pathology. Borderline personality disorder combines interpersonal, affective, and behavioral regulation impairments making it particularly ill-suited to a "one size fits all" diagnosis. Clinical assessment and case formulation involve understanding and developing a personalized model for each patient's contextualized dynamic processes, and research would benefit from a similar focus on the individual.

METHOD

We use group iterative multiple model estimation, which estimates a model for each individual and identifies general or shared features across individuals, in both a mixed-diagnosis sample (N = 78) and a subsample with a single diagnosis (n = 24).

RESULTS

We found that individuals vary widely in their dynamic processes in affective and interpersonal domains both within and across diagnoses. However, there was some evidence that dynamic patterns relate to transdiagnostic baseline measures. We conclude with descriptions of 2 person-specific models as an example of the heterogeneity of dynamic processes.

CONCLUSIONS

The idiographic models presented here join a growing literature showing that the individuals differ dramatically in the total patterning of these processes, even as key processes are shared across individuals. We argue that these processes are best estimated in the context of person-specific models, and that so doing may advance our understanding of the contextualized dynamic processes that could identify maintenance mechanisms and treatment targets. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2020 APA, all rights reserved).

Modeling Heterogeneous Peer Assortment Effects Using Finite Mixture Exponential Random Graph Models

This article develops a class of models called sender/receiver finite mixture exponential random graph models (SRFM-ERGMs). This class of models extends the existing exponential random graph modeling framework to allow analysts to model unobserved heterogeneity in the effects of nodal covariates and network features without a block structure. An empirical example regarding substance use among adolescents is presented. Simulations across a variety of conditions are used to evaluate the performance of this technique. We conclude that unobserved heterogeneity in effects of nodal covariates can be a major cause of misfit in network models, and the SRFM-ERGM approach can alleviate this misfit. Implications for the analysis of social networks in psychological science are discussed.

Measuring Cognitive Flexibility with the Flexible Item Selection Task: From fMRI Adaptation to Individual Connectome Mapping

Cognitive flexibility, the ability to appropriately adjust behavior in a changing environment, has been challenging to operationalize and validate in cognitive neuroscience studies. Here, we investigate neural activation and directed functional connectivity underlying cognitive flexibility using an fMRI-adapted version of the Flexible Item Selection Task (FIST) in adults (n = 32, ages 19-46 years). The fMRI-adapted FIST was reliable, showed comparable performance to the computer-based version of the task, and produced robust activation in frontoparietal, anterior cingulate, insular, and subcortical regions. During flexibility trials, participants directly engaged the left inferior frontal junction, which influenced activity in other cortical and subcortical regions. The strength of intrinsic functional connectivity between select brain regions was related to individual differences in performance on the FIST, but there was also significant individual variability in functional network topography supporting cognitive flexibility. Taken together, these results suggest that the FIST is a valid measure of cognitive flexibility, which relies on computations within a broad corticosubcortical network driven by inferior frontal junction engagement.

Latent variable GIMME using model implied instrumental variables (MIIVs)

Researchers across many domains of psychology increasingly wish to arrive at personalized and generalizable dynamic models of individuals' processes. This is seen in psychophysiological, behavioral, and emotional research paradigms, across a range of data types. Errors of measurement are inherent in most data. For this reason, researchers typically gather multiple indicators of the same latent construct and use methods, such as factor analysis, to arrive at scores from these indices. In addition to accurately measuring individuals, researchers also need to find the model that best describes the relations among the latent constructs. Most currently available data-driven searches do not include latent variables. We present an approach that builds from the strong foundations of group iterative multiple model estimation (GIMME), the idiographic filter, and model implied instrumental variables with two-stage least squares estimation (MIIV-2SLS) to provide researchers with the option to include latent variables in their data-driven model searches. The resulting approach is called latent variable GIMME (LV-GIMME). GIMME is utilized for the data-driven search for relations that exist among latent variables. Unlike other approaches such as the idiographic filter, LV-GIMME does not require that the latent variable model to be constant across individuals. This requirement is loosened by utilizing MIIV-2SLS for estimation. Simulated data studies demonstrate that the method can reliably detect relations among latent constructs, and that latent constructs provide more power to detect effects than using observed variables directly. We use empirical data examples drawn from functional MRI and daily self-report data. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2020 APA, all rights reserved).

Focusing personality assessment on the person: Modeling general, shared, and person specific processes in personality and psychopathology

Personality and psychopathology are composed of dynamic and interactive processes among diverse psychological systems, manifesting over time and in response to an individual's natural environment. Ambulatory assessment techniques promise to revolutionize assessment practices by allowing access to the dynamic data necessary to study these processes directly. Assessing manifestations of personality and psychopathology naturalistically in an individual's own ecology allows for dynamic modeling of key behavioral processes. However, advances in dynamic data collection have highlighted the challenges of both fully understanding an individual (via idiographic models) and how s/he compares with others (as seen in nomothetic models). Methods are needed that can simultaneously model idiographic (i.e., person-specific) processes and nomothetic (i.e., general) structure from intensive longitudinal personality assessments. Here we present a method, group iterative multiple model estimation (GIMME) for simultaneously studying general, shared (i.e., in subgroups), and person-specific processes in intensive longitudinal behavioral data. We first provide an introduction to the GIMME method, followed by a demonstration of its use in a sample of individuals diagnosed with personality disorder who completed daily diaries over 100 consecutive days. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2019 APA, all rights reserved).

Comparing directed functional connectivity between groups with confirmatory subgrouping GIMME

Connectivity modeling in functional neuroimaging has become widely used method of analysis for understanding functional architecture. One method for deriving directed connectivity models is Group Iterative Multiple Model Estimation (GIMME; Gates and Molenaar, 2012). GIMME looks for commonalities across the sample to detect signal from noise and arrive at edges that exist across the majority in the group ("group-level edges") and individual-level edges. In this way, GIMME obtains generalizable results via the group-level edges while also allowing for between subject heterogeneity in connectivity, moving the field closer to obtaining reliable personalized connectivity maps. In this article, we present a novel extension of GIMME, confirmatory subgrouping GIMME, which estimates subgroup-level edges for a priori known groups (e.g. typically developing controls vs. clinical group). Detecting edges that consistently exist for individuals within predefined subgroups aids in interpretation of the heterogeneity in connectivity maps and allows for subgroup-specific inferences. We describe this algorithm, as well as several methods to examine the results. We present an empirical example that finds similarities and differences in resting state functional connectivity among four groups of children: typically developing controls (TDC), children with autism spectrum disorder (ASD), children with Inattentive (ADHD-I) and Combined (ADHD-C) Type ADHD. Findings from this study suggest common involvement of the left Broca's area in all the clinical groups, as well as several unique patterns of functional connectivity specific to a given disorder. Overall, the current approach and proof of principle findings highlight a novel and reliable tool for capturing heterogeneity in complex mental health disorders.

A Limited Information Estimator for Dynamic Factor Models

Structural equation modeling (SEM) is an increasingly popular method for examining multivariate time series data. As in cross-sectional data analysis, structural misspecification of time series models is inevitable, and further complicated by the fact that errors occur in both the time series and measurement components of the model. In this article, we introduce a new limited information estimator and local fit diagnostic for dynamic factor models within the SEM framework. We demonstrate the implementation of this estimator and examine its performance under both correct and incorrect model specifications via a small simulation study. The estimates from this estimator are compared to those from the most common system-wide estimators and are found to be more robust to the structural misspecifications considered.

Assessing the robustness of cluster solutions obtained from sparse count matrices

Psychological researchers often seek to obtain cluster solutions from sparse count matrices (e.g., social networks; counts of symptoms that are in common for 2 given individuals; structural brain imaging). Increasingly, community detection methods are being used to subset the data in a data-driven manner. While many of these approaches perform well in simulation studies and thus offer some improvement upon traditional clustering approaches, there is no readily available approach for evaluating the robustness of these solutions in empirical data. Researchers have no way of knowing if their results are due to noise. We describe here 2 approaches novel to the field of psychology that enable evaluation of cluster solution robustness. This tutorial also explains the use of an associated R package, perturbR, which provides researchers with the ability to use the methods described herein. In the first approach, the cluster assignment from the original matrix is compared against cluster assignments obtained by randomly perturbing the edges in the matrix. Stable cluster solutions should not demonstrate large changes in the presence of small perturbations. For the second approach, Monte Carlo simulations of random matrices that have the same properties as the original matrix are generated. The distribution of quality scores ("modularity") obtained from the cluster solutions from these matrices are then compared with the score obtained from the original matrix results. From this, one can assess if the results are better than what would be expected by chance. perturbR automates these 2 methods, providing an easy-to-use resource for psychological researchers. We demonstrate the utility of this package using benchmark simulated data generated from a previous study and then apply the methods to publicly available empirical data obtained from social networks and structural neuroimaging. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2019 APA, all rights reserved).

Uncovering general, shared, and unique temporal patterns in ambulatory assessment data

Intensive longitudinal data provide psychological researchers with the potential to better understand individual-level temporal processes. While the collection of such data has become increasingly common, there are a comparatively small number of methods well-suited for analyzing these data, and many methods assume homogeneity across individuals. A recent development rooted in structural equation and vector autoregressive modeling, Subgrouping Group Iterative Multiple Model Estimation (S-GIMME), provides one method for arriving at individual-level models composed of processes shared by the sample, a subset of the sample, and a given individual. As this algorithm was motivated and validated for use with neuroimaging data, its performance is less understood in the context of ambulatory assessment data. Here, we evaluate the performance of the S-GIMME algorithm across various conditions frequently encountered with daily diary (compared to neuroimaging) data; namely, a smaller number of variables, a lower number of time points, and smaller autoregressive effects. We demonstrate, for the first time, the importance of the autoregressive effects in recovering data-generating connections and directions, and the ability to use S-GIMME with lengths of data commonly seen in daily diary studies. We demonstrate the use of S-GIMME with an empirical example evaluating the general, shared, and unique temporal processes associated with a sample of individuals with borderline personality disorder (BPD). Finally, we underscore the need for methods such as S-GIMME moving forward given the increasing use of intensive longitudinal data in psychological research, and the potential for these data to provide novel insights into human behavior and mental health. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2019 APA, all rights reserved).

Model-based network discovery of developmental and performance-related differences during risky decision-making

Theories of adolescent neurodevelopment have largely focused on group-level descriptions of neural changes that help explain increases in risk behavior that are stereotypical of the teen years. However, because these models are concerned with describing the "average" individual, they can fail to account for important individual or within-group variability. New methodological developments now offer the possibility of accounting for both group trends and individual differences within the same modeling framework. Here we apply GIMME, a model-based approach which uses both group and individual-level information to construct functional connectivity maps, to investigate risky behavior and neural changes across development. Adolescents (N = 30, M_age = 13.22), young adults (N = 23, M_age = 19.19), and adults (N = 31, M_age = 43.93) completed a risky decision-making task during an fMRI scan, and functional networks were constructed for each individual. We took two subgrouping approaches: 1) a confirmatory approach where we searched for functional connections that distinguished between our a priori age categories, and 2) an exploratory approach where we allowed an unsupervised algorithm to sort individuals freely. Contrary to expectations, we show that age is not the most influence contributing to network configurations. The implications for developmental theories and methodologies are discussed.

When couples' hearts beat together: Synchrony in heart rate variability during conflict predicts heightened inflammation throughout the day

Hostile conflict in marriage can increase risks for disease and mortality. Physiological synchrony between partners-e.g., the linkage between their autonomic fluctuations-appears to capture engagement, or an inability to disengage from an exchange, and thus may amplify the health risks of noxious interactions such as marital conflict. Prior work has not examined the unique health correlates of this physiological signature. To test associations between couples' heart rate variability (HRV) synchrony during conflict and inflammation, 43 married couples engaged in a marital problem discussion while wearing heart monitors and provided four blood samples; they repeated this protocol at a second visit. When couples' moment-to-moment HRV changes tracked more closely together during conflict, they had higher levels of three inflammatory markers (i.e., IL-6, stimulated TNF-α, and sVCAM-1) across the day. Stronger HRV synchrony during conflict also predicted greater negative affect reactivity. Synchrony varied within couples, and was related to situational factors rather than global relationship traits. These data highlight partners' HRV linkage during conflict as a novel social-biological pathway to inflammation-related disease.

Detecting Clusters/Communities in Social Networks

Cohen's κ, a similarity measure for categorical data, has since been applied to problems in the data mining field such as cluster analysis and network link prediction. In this paper, a new application is examined: community detection in networks. A new algorithm is proposed that uses Cohen's κ as a similarity measure for each pair of nodes; subsequently, the κ values are then clustered to detect the communities. This paper defines and tests this method on a variety of simulated and real networks. The results are compared with those from eight other community detection algorithms. Results show this new algorithm is consistently among the top performers in classifying data points both on simulated and real networks. Additionally, this is one of the broadest comparative simulations for comparing community detection algorithms to date.

ROBUSTNESS CONDITIONS FOR MIIV-2SLS WHEN THE LATENT VARIABLE OR MEASUREMENT MODEL IS STRUCTURALLY MISSPECIFIED

Most researchers acknowledge that virtually all structural equation models (SEMs) are approximations due to violating distributional assumptions and structural misspecifications. There is a large literature on the unmet distributional assumptions, but much less on structural misspecifications. In this paper we examine the robustness to structural misspecification of the Model Implied Instrumental Variable, Two Stage Least Square (MIIV-2SLS) estimator of SEMs. We introduce two types of robustness: robust-unchanged and robust-consistent. We develop new robustness analytic conditions for MIIV-2SLS and illustrate these with hypothetical models, simulated data, and an empirical example. Our conditions enable a researcher to know whether, for example, a structural misspecification in the latent variable model influences the MIIV-2SLS estimator for measurement model equations and vice versa. Similarly, we establish robustness conditions for correlated errors. The new robustness conditions provide guidance on the types of structural misspecifications that affect parameter estimates and they assist in diagnosing the source of detected problems with MIIVs.

Network Mapping with GIMME

Network science is booming! While the insights and images afforded by network mapping techniques are compelling, implementing the techniques is often daunting to researchers. Thus, the aim of this tutorial is to facilitate implementation in the context of GIMME, or group iterative multiple model estimation. GIMME is an automated network analysis approach for intensive longitudinal data. It creates person-specific networks that explain how variables are related in a system. The relations can signify current or future prediction that is common across people or applicable only to an individual. The tutorial begins with conceptual and mathematical descriptions of GIMME. It proceeds with a practical discussion of analysis steps, including data acquisition, preprocessing, program operation, a posteriori testing of model assumptions, and interpretation of results; throughout, a small empirical data set is analyzed to showcase the GIMME analysis pipeline. The tutorial closes with a brief overview of extensions to GIMME that may interest researchers whose questions and data sets have certain features. By the end of the tutorial, researchers will be equipped to begin analyzing the temporal dynamics of their heterogeneous time series data with GIMME.

Unsupervised Classification During Time-Series Model Building

Researchers who collect multivariate time-series data across individuals must decide whether to model the dynamic processes at the individual level or at the group level. A recent innovation, group iterative multiple model estimation (GIMME), offers one solution to this dichotomy by identifying group-level time-series models in a data-driven manner while also reliably recovering individual-level patterns of dynamic effects. GIMME is unique in that it does not assume homogeneity in processes across individuals in terms of the patterns or weights of temporal effects. However, it can be difficult to make inferences from the nuances in varied individual-level patterns. The present article introduces an algorithm that arrives at subgroups of individuals that have similar dynamic models. Importantly, the researcher does not need to decide the number of subgroups. The final models contain reliable group-, subgroup-, and individual-level patterns that enable generalizable inferences, subgroups of individuals with shared model features, and individual-level patterns and estimates. We show that integrating community detection into the GIMME algorithm improves upon current standards in two important ways: (1) providing reliable classification and (2) increasing the reliability in the recovery of individual-level effects. We demonstrate this method on functional MRI from a sample of former American football players.

A Monte Carlo Evaluation of Weighted Community Detection Algorithms

The past decade has been marked with a proliferation of community detection algorithms that aim to organize nodes (e.g., individuals, brain regions, variables) into modular structures that indicate subgroups, clusters, or communities. Motivated by the emergence of big data across many fields of inquiry, these methodological developments have primarily focused on the detection of communities of nodes from matrices that are very large. However, it remains unknown if the algorithms can reliably detect communities in smaller graph sizes (i.e., 1000 nodes and fewer) which are commonly used in brain research. More importantly, these algorithms have predominantly been tested only on binary or sparse count matrices and it remains unclear the degree to which the algorithms can recover community structure for different types of matrices, such as the often used cross-correlation matrices representing functional connectivity across predefined brain regions. Of the publicly available approaches for weighted graphs that can detect communities in graph sizes of at least 1000, prior research has demonstrated that Newman's spectral approach (i.e., Leading Eigenvalue), Walktrap, Fast Modularity, the Louvain method (i.e., multilevel community method), Label Propagation, and Infomap all recover communities exceptionally well in certain circumstances. The purpose of the present Monte Carlo simulation study is to test these methods across a large number of conditions, including varied graph sizes and types of matrix (sparse count, correlation, and reflected Euclidean distance), to identify which algorithm is optimal for specific types of data matrices. The results indicate that when the data are in the form of sparse count networks (such as those seen in diffusion tensor imaging), Label Propagation and Walktrap surfaced as the most reliable methods for community detection. For dense, weighted networks such as correlation matrices capturing functional connectivity, Walktrap consistently outperformed the other approaches for recovering communities.

Methods for Quantifying Patterns of Dynamic Interactions in Dyads

Individuals in both clinical and research settings increasingly provide data across numerous time points. Examples include measurements collected from wearable technology (e.g., accelerometers), psychophysiological measures, coded observations, social media behaviors, and daily diary data. When numerous observations are available for each individual, the data fall under the class of time series data and can be examined from within a dynamic systems perspective. We provide a broad overview of current analytic methods for quantifying relations among dyads using this data type. The techniques include those from within a linear modeling framework, approaches that include a measurement model, and methods for examining cyclical relations. We also discuss some special topics, such as methods that allow for models to shift across time and that accommodate heterogeneity across individuals. Finally, methods that account for similar shapes of nonlinear curves across time are described. From this breadth of options, we hope to help guide practitioners, clinicians, and researchers in choosing the optimal method for their data and line of questions. To further aid in this choice, we indicate programs available for each technique. Example dyads presented here range from mother–infant, patient–caretaker, and husband–wife; however, the analytic methods can be applied to any type of dyad.

Examining the Dynamic Structure of Daily Internalizing and Externalizing Behavior at Multiple Levels of Analysis

Psychiatric diagnostic covariation suggests that the underlying structure of psychopathology is not one of circumscribed disorders. Quantitative modeling of individual differences in diagnostic patterns has uncovered several broad domains of mental disorder liability, of which the Internalizing and Externalizing spectra have garnered the greatest support. These dimensions have generally been estimated from lifetime or past-year comorbidity patters, which are distal from the covariation of symptoms and maladaptive behavior that ebb and flow in daily life. In this study, structural models are applied to daily diary data (Median = 94 days) of maladaptive behaviors collected from a sample (N = 101) of individuals diagnosed with personality disorders (PDs). Using multilevel and unified structural equation modeling, between-person, within-person, and person-specific structures were estimated from 16 behaviors that are encompassed by the Internalizing and Externalizing spectra. At the between-person level (i.e., individual differences in average endorsement across days) we found support for a two-factor Internalizing-Externalizing model, which exhibits significant associations with corresponding diagnostic spectra. At the within-person level (i.e., dynamic covariation among daily behavior pooled across individuals) we found support for a more differentiated, four-factor, Negative Affect-Detachment-Hostility-Disinhibition structure. Finally, we demonstrate that the person-specific structures of associations between these four domains are highly idiosyncratic.

State space modeling of time-varying contemporaneous and lagged relations in connectivity maps

Most connectivity mapping techniques for neuroimaging data assume stationarity (i.e., network parameters are constant across time), but this assumption does not always hold true. The authors provide a description of a new approach for simultaneously detecting time-varying (or dynamic) contemporaneous and lagged relations in brain connectivity maps. Specifically, they use a novel raw data likelihood estimation technique (involving a second-order extended Kalman filter/smoother embedded in a nonlinear optimizer) to determine the variances of the random walks associated with state space model parameters and their autoregressive components. The authors illustrate their approach with simulated and blood oxygen level-dependent functional magnetic resonance imaging data from 30 daily cigarette smokers performing a verbal working memory task, focusing on seven regions of interest (ROIs). Twelve participants had dynamic directed functional connectivity maps: Eleven had one or more time-varying contemporaneous ROI state loadings, and one had a time-varying autoregressive parameter. Compared to smokers without dynamic maps, smokers with dynamic maps performed the task with greater accuracy. Thus, accurate detection of dynamic brain processes is meaningfully related to behavior in a clinical sample.

Examining network dynamics after traumatic brain injury using the extended unified SEM approach

The current study uses effective connectivity modeling to examine how individuals with traumatic brain injury (TBI) learn a new task. We make use of recent advancements in connectivity modeling (extended unified structural equation modeling, euSEM) and a novel iterative grouping procedure (Group Iterative Multiple Model Estimation, GIMME) in order to examine network flexibility after injury. The study enrolled 12 individuals sustaining moderate and severe TBI to examine the influence of task practice on connections between 8 network nodes (bilateral prefrontal cortex, anterior cingulate, inferior parietal lobule, and Crus I in the cerebellum). The data demonstrate alterations in networks from pre to post practice and differences in the models based upon distinct learning trajectories observed within the TBI sample. For example, better learning in the TBI sample was associated with diminished connectivity within frontal systems and increased frontal to parietal connectivity. These findings reveal the potential for using connectivity modeling and the euSEM to examine dynamic networks during task engagement and may ultimately be informative regarding when networks are moving in and out of periods of neural efficiency.

Greater BOLD activity but more efficient connectivity is associated with better cognitive performance within a sample of nicotine-deprived smokers

The first few days of an attempt to quit smoking are marked by impairments in cognitive domains, such as working memory and attention. These cognitive impairments have been linked to increased risk for relapse. Little is known about individual differences in the cognitive impairments that accompany deprivation or the neural processing reflected in those differences. In order to address this knowledge gap, we collected functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) data from 118 nicotine-deprived smokers while they performed a verbal n-back task. We predicted better performance would be associated with more efficient patterns of brain activation and effective connectivity. Results indicated that performance was positively related to load-related activation in the left dorsolateral prefrontal cortex and the left lateral premotor cortex. Additionally, effective connectivity patterns differed as a function of performance, with more accurate participants having simpler, more parsimonious network models than did worse participants. Cognitive efficiency is typically thought of as less neural activation for equal or superior behavioral performance. Taken together, findings suggest cognitive efficiency should not be viewed solely in terms of amount of activation but that both the magnitude of activation within and degree of covariation between task-critical structures must be considered. This research highlights the benefit of combining traditional fMRI analysis with newer methods for modeling brain connectivity. These results suggest a possible role for indices of network functioning in assessing relapse risk in quitting smokers as well as offer potentially useful targets for novel intervention strategies.

Networks involved in olfaction and their dynamics using independent component analysis and unified structural equation modeling

The study of human olfaction is complicated by the myriad of processing demands in conscious perceptual and emotional experiences of odors. Combining functional magnetic resonance imaging with convergent multivariate network analyses, we examined the spatiotemporal behavior of olfactory-generated blood-oxygenated-level-dependent signal in healthy adults. The experimental functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) paradigm was found to offset the limitations of olfactory habituation effects and permitted the identification of five functional networks. Analysis delineated separable neuronal circuits that were spatially centered in the primary olfactory cortex, striatum, dorsolateral prefrontal cortex, rostral prefrontal cortex/anterior cingulate, and parietal-occipital junction. We hypothesize that these functional networks subserve primary perceptual, affective/motivational, and higher order olfactory-related cognitive processes. Results provided direct evidence for the existence of parallel networks with top-down modulation for olfactory processing and clearly distinguished brain activations that were sniffing-related versus odor-related. A comprehensive neurocognitive model for olfaction is presented that may be applied to broader translational studies of olfactory function, aging, and neurological disease.

Changes in alcohol-related brain networks across the first year of college: a prospective pilot study using fMRI effective connectivity mapping

The upsurge in alcohol use that often occurs during the first year of college has been convincingly linked to a number of negative psychosocial consequences and may negatively affect brain development. In this longitudinal functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) pilot study, we examined changes in neural responses to alcohol cues across the first year of college in a normative sample of late adolescents. Participants (N=11) were scanned three times across their first year of college (summer, first semester, second semester), while completing a go/no-go task in which images of alcoholic and non-alcoholic beverages were the response cues. A state-of-the-art effective connectivity mapping technique was used to capture spatiotemporal relations among brain regions of interest (ROIs) at the level of the group and the individual. Effective connections among ROIs implicated in cognitive control were greatest at the second assessment (when negative consequences of alcohol use increased), and effective connections among ROIs implicated in emotion processing were lower (and response times were slower) when participants were instructed to respond to alcohol cues compared to non-alcohol cues. These preliminary findings demonstrate the value of a prospective effective connectivity approach for understanding adolescent changes in alcohol-related neural processes.

Infants' Transitions out of a Fussing/Crying State Are Modifiable and Are Related to Weight Status

Currently, about 10% of infants have a weight for length greater than the 95th percentile for their age and sex, which puts them at risk for obesity as they grow. In a pilot obesity prevention study, primiparous mothers and their newborn infants were randomly assigned to a control group or a Soothe/Sleep intervention. Previously, it has been demonstrated that this intervention contributed to lower weight-for-length percentiles at 1 year; the aim of the present study was to examine infant behavior diary data collected during the intervention. Markov modeling was used to characterize infants' patterns of behavioral transitions at ages 3 and 16 weeks. Results showed that heavier mothers were more likely to follow their infants' fussing/crying episodes with a feeding. The intervention increased infants' likelihood of transitioning from a fussing/crying state to an awake/calm state. A shorter latency to feed in response to fussing/crying was associated with a higher subsequent weight status. This study provides preliminary evidence that infants' transitions out of fussing/crying are characterized by inter-individual differences, are modifiable, and are linked to weight outcomes, suggesting that they may be promising targets for early behavioral obesity interventions, and highlighting the methodology used in this study as an appropriate and innovative tool to assess the impact of such interventions.