Development of a composite drought indicator for operational drought monitoring in the MENA region

This paper presents the composite drought indicator (CDI) that Jordanian, Lebanese, Moroccan, and Tunisian government agencies now produce monthly to support operational drought management decision making, and it describes their iterative co-development processes. The CDI is primarily intended to monitor agricultural and ecological drought on a seasonal time scale. It uses remote sensing and modelled data inputs, and it reflects anomalies in precipitation, vegetation, soil moisture, and evapotranspiration. Following quantitative and qualitative validation assessments, engagements with policymakers, and consideration of agencies' technical and institutional capabilities and constraints, we made changes to CDI input data, modelling procedures, and integration to tailor the system for each national context. We summarize validation results, drought modelling challenges and how we overcame them through CDI improvements, and we describe the monthly CDI production process and outputs. Finally, we synthesize procedural and technical aspects of CDI development and reflect on the constraints we faced as well as trade-offs made to optimize the CDI for operational monitoring to support policy decision-making-including aspects of salience, credibility, and legitimacy-within each national context.

GRACE improves seasonal groundwater forecast initialization over the U.S

We evaluate the impact of Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment data assimilation (GRACE-DA) on seasonal hydrological forecast initialization over the U.S., focusing on groundwater storage. GRACE-based terrestrial water storage (TWS) estimates are assimilated into a land surface model for the 2003-2016 period. Three-month hindcast (i.e., forecast of past events) simulations are initialized using states from the reference (no data assimilation) and GRACE-DA runs. Differences between the two initial hydrological condition (IHC) sets are evaluated for two forecast techniques at 305 wells where depth-to-water-table measurements are available. Results show that using GRACE-DA-based IHC improves seasonal groundwater forecast performance in terms of both RMSE and correlation. While most regions show improvement, degradation is common in the High Plains, where withdrawals for irrigation practices affect groundwater variability more strongly than the weather variability, which demonstrates the need for simulating such activities. These findings contribute to recent efforts towards an improved U.S. drought monitor and forecast system.

A land data assimilation system for sub-Saharan Africa food and water security applications

Seasonal agricultural drought monitoring systems, which rely on satellite remote sensing and land surface models (LSMs), are important for disaster risk reduction and famine early warning. These systems require the best available weather inputs, as well as a long-term historical record to contextualize current observations. This article introduces the Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) Land Data Assimilation System (FLDAS), a custom instance of the NASA Land Information System (LIS) framework. The FLDAS is routinely used to produce multi-model and multi-forcing estimates of hydro-climate states and fluxes over semi-arid, food insecure regions of Africa. These modeled data and derived products, like soil moisture percentiles and water availability, were designed and are currently used to complement FEWS NET's operational remotely sensed rainfall, evapotranspiration, and vegetation observations. The 30+ years of monthly outputs from the FLDAS simulations are publicly available from the NASA Goddard Earth Science Data and Information Services Center (GES DISC) and recommended for use in hydroclimate studies, early warning applications, and by agro-meteorological scientists in Eastern, Southern, and Western Africa.

NASA-modified precipitation products to improve USEPA nonpoint source water quality modeling for the Chesapeake Bay

The USEPA has estimated that over 20,000 water bodies within the United States do not meet water quality standards. One of the regulations in the Clean Water Act of 1972 requires states to monitor the total maximum daily load, or the amount of pollution that can be carried by a water body before it is determined to be "polluted," for any watershed in the United States (Copeland, 2005). In response to this mandate, the USEPA developed Better Assessment Science Integrating Nonpoint Sources (BASINS) as a decision support tool for assessing pollution and to guide the decision-making process for improving water quality. One of the models in BASINS, the Hydrological Simulation Program-Fortran (HSPF), computes continuous streamflow rates and pollutant concentration at each basin outlet. By design, precipitation and other meteorological data from weather stations serve as standard model input. In practice, these stations may be unable to capture the spatial heterogeneity of precipitation events, especially if they are few and far between. An attempt was made to resolve this issue by substituting station data with NASA-modified/NOAA precipitation data. Using these data within HSPF, streamflow was calculated for seven watersheds in the Chesapeake Bay Basin during low flow periods, convective storm periods, and annual flows. In almost every case, the modeling performance of HSPF increased when using the NASA-modified precipitation data, resulting in better streamflow statistics and, potentially, in improved water quality assessment.

Changes in substance P and calcitonin gene-related peptide binding in the dorsal horn of rat spinal cord following pronase-induced deafferentation

Quantitative receptor autoradiography was used to evaluate potential alterations in substance P (SP) and calcitonin gene-related peptide (CGRP) binding in the L4 spinal segment of rats following unilateral poisoning of the sciatic nerve with pronase. Ten days after pronase-induced deafferentation there was a significant increase in SP and CGRP binding in the superficial (I-II) and deeper (II-IV) laminae of the dorsal horn ipsilaterally. Densitometric measurements revealed a 50% return towards normal values for SP binding by 90 days postpronase injection in all laminae examined, while the density of CGRP binding showed a partial return towards normal values for laminae III-IV only. These differential responses may be indicative of the mechanisms underlying pronase-induced peripheral neuropathy.

Deafferentation-induced regulation of AMPA receptors in the spinal cord of the adult rat

Glutamate released from primary afferents is thought to be involved in mediating spinal reflexes, nociception, and the development and consequent maintenance of hyperalgesia. The role of glutamate is dependent on the distribution and regulation of glutamate receptors in the spinal cord. Due to the numerous glutamate receptor subtypes and their differential physiological profiles, the system is quite complex. Understanding the regulation of the various glutamate receptor subunits may aid in the elucidation of the role of glutamate in somatosensory processing. In this study we found a transient reduction in delta-amino-3-hydroxy-5-methyl-isoxazole-4-propionate (AMPA) receptors in the dorsal horn following partial deafferentation. The time course for the alterations of spinal AMPA receptors may correspond to the functional consequence of deafferentation.

Deafferentation-induced expression of GAP-43, NCAM, and NILE in the adult rat dorsal horn following pronase injection of the sciatic nerve

The expression of growth-associated protein 43 (GAP-43), neural cell adhesion molecule (NCAM), and nerve-growth-factor-inducible large external glycoprotein (NILE) in the adult rat dorsal horn was examined at several survival times after unilateral pronase injection of the sciatic nerve. Pronase injection produces a permanent major loss of sciatic primary afferents in the dorsal horn, and there is a later sprouting of saphenous afferents into the sciatic territory. Small-diameter myelinated and nonmyelinated saphenous afferents sprout within the superficial dorsal horn, and larger, myelinated afferents sprout within the deep dorsal horn. In the present study, GAP-43 and NCAM immunoreactivity increased in the superficial dorsal horn by 10 days after injection. By 20 days, the increase spread into the deep dorsal horn; NCAM returned to normal after 1-2 months, but GAP-43 persisted up to 4 months. NILE immunoreactivity appeared in laminae I and II by 10 days and increased up to 30 days; by 2 months no NILE remained. NILE never spread into the deeper dorsal horn, regardless of survival time. These data suggest a correlation in the expression of both NCAM and NILE with the sprouting of fine-diameter sprouting afferents in laminae I and II, and of NCAM expression with the sprouting of larger-diameter afferents in the deep dorsal horn.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)