Early prediction of the impact of public health policies on obesity and lifetime risk of type 2 diabetes: A modelling approach

OBJECTIVE

Help public health decision-making requires a better understanding of the dynamics of obesity and type 2 diabetes and an assessement of different strategies to decrease their burdens.

METHODS

Based on 97,848 individual data, collected in the French Health, Health Care and Insurance Survey over 1998-2014, a Markov model was developed to describe the progression of being overweight to obesity, and the onset of type 2 diabetes. This model traces and predicts 2022-2027 burdens of obesity and type 2 diabetes, and lifetime risk of diabetes, according to different scenarios aiming at minimum to stabilize obesity at 5 years.

RESULTS

Estimated risks of type 2 diabetes increase from 0.09% (normal weight) to 1.56% (obesity II-III). Compared to the before 1995 period, progression risks are estimated to have nearly doubled for obesity and tripled for type 2 diabetes. Consequently, over 2022-2027, the prevalence of obesity and type 2 diabetes will continue to increase from 17.3% to 18.2% and from 7.3% to 8.1%, respectively. Scenarios statibilizing obesity would require a 22%-decrease in the probability of move up (scenario 1) or a 33%-increase in the probability of move down (scenario 2) one BMI class. However, this stabilization will not affect the increase of diabetes prevalence whereas lifetime risk of diabetes would decrease (30.9% to 27.0%). Combining both scenarios would decrease obesity by 9.9%. Only the prevalence of obesity III shows early change able to predict the outcome of a strategy: for example, 6.7%-decrease at one year, 13.3%-decrease at two years with scenario 1 stabilizing obesity at 5 years.

CONCLUSIONS

Prevalences of obesity and type 2 diabetes will still increase over the next 5 years. Stabilizing obesity may decrease lifetime risks of type 2 diabetes without affecting its short-term prevalence. Our study highlights that, to early assess the effectiveness of their program, public health policy makers should rely on the change in prevalence of obesity III.

Liver Transplantation in Alcohol-related Liver Disease and Alcohol-related Hepatitis

Alcohol-related liver disease (ARLD) remains one of the leading causes of chronic liver disease and the prevalence of alcohol-related cirrhosis is still increasing worldwide. Thus, ARLD is one of the leading indications for liver transplantation (LT) worldwide especially after the arrival of direct-acting antivirals for chronic hepatitis C infection. Despite the risk of alcohol relapse, the outcomes of LT for ARLD are as good as for other indications such as hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), with 1-, 5-, and 10- year survival rates of 85%, 74%, and 59%, respectively. Despite these good results, certain questions concerning LT for ARLD remain unanswered, in particular because of persistent organ shortages. As a result, too many transplantation centers continue to require 6 months of abstinence from alcohol for patients with ARLD before LT to reduce the risk of alcohol relapse even though compelling data show the poor prognostic value of this criterion. A recent pilot study even observed a lower alcohol relapse rate in patients receiving LT after less than 6 months of abstinence as long as addictological follow-up is reinforced. Thus, the question should not be whether LT should be offered to patients with ARLD but how to select patients who will benefit from this treatment.

Management of alcohol-related liver disease: the French Association for the Study of the Liver and the French Alcohol Society clinical guidelines

Excessive alcohol consumption is the leading cause of liver diseases in Western countries, especially in France. Alcohol-related liver disease (ARLD) is an extremely broad context and there remains much to accomplish in terms of identifying patients, improving prognosis and treatment, and standardising practices. The French Association for the Study of the Liver wished to organise guidelines together with the French Alcohol Society in order to summarise the best evidence available about several key clinical points in ARLD. These guidelines have been elaborated based on the level of evidence available in the literature and each recommendation has been analysed, discussed and voted by the panel of experts. They describe how patients with ARLD should be managed nowadays and discuss the main unsettled issues in the field.

Acute Liver Injury With Therapeutic Doses of Acetaminophen: A Prospective Study

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Because of the extensive use of this drug, further evaluation of acute liver injury (ALI) with therapeutic doses of acetaminophen (APAP; ≤6 g/d) is required. We characterize ALI with therapeutic doses of APAP and determine the host factors associated with disease severity and the predictors of outcome.

APPROACH AND RESULTS

All patients admitted with severe APAP-related ALI in our center were included from 2002 to 2019, either attributable to therapeutic doses or overdose. ALI with therapeutic doses (ALITD) was defined as APAP intake <6 g/d. Overall, 311 of 400 patients with APAP-related ALI had overdose and 89 had taken therapeutic doses. The host factors associated with ALITD were fasting ≥1 day (47.5% of ALITD patients vs. 26% in overdose; P = 0.001), excess drinking (93.3% vs. 48.5%; P < 0.0001), and repeated APAP use (4 vs. 1 day; P < 0.0001). Patients with ALITD were older (44 vs. 30.7 years; P < 0.0001) and had more severe liver injury. In the overall population, the independent predictors of disease severity were older age, longer duration of APAP, and excess drinking. Thirty-day survival was lower in ALITD than in overdose (87.2 ± 3.6% vs. 94.6 ± 1.3%; P = 0.02). Age and the presence of at least one of the King's College Hospital criteria were independent predictors of 30-day survival whereas the pattern of drug intoxication, excess drinking, and bilirubin were not.

CONCLUSIONS

ALI with therapeutic doses of APAP is associated with more severe liver injury than overdose. It only occurs in patients with excess drinking and/or fasting. A warning should be issued about the repeated use of nontoxic doses of APAP in patients with those risk factors.

A tool to predict progression of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease in severely obese patients

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Severely obese patients are a growing population at risk of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD). Considering the increasing burden, a predictive tool of NAFLD progression would be of interest. Our objective was to provide a tool allowing general practitioners to identify and refer the patients most at risk, and specialists to estimate disease progression and adapt the therapeutic strategy.

METHODS

This predictive tool is based on a Markov model simulating steatosis, fibrosis and non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) evolution. This model was developped from data of 1801 severely obese, bariatric surgery candidates, with histological assessment, integrating duration of exposure to risk factors. It is then able to predict current disease severity in the absence of assessment, and future cirrhosis risk based on current stage.

RESULTS

The model quantifies the impact of sex, body-mass index at 20, diabetes, age of overweight onset, on progression. For example, for 40-year-old severely obese patients seen by the general practitioners: (a) non-diabetic woman overweight at 20, and (b) diabetic man overweight at 10, without disease assessment, the model predicts their current risk to have NASH or F3-F4: for (a) 5.7% and 0.6%, for (b) 16.1% and 10.0% respectively. If those patients have been diagnosed F2 by the specialist, the model predicts the 5-year cirrhosis risk: 1.8% in the absence of NASH and 6.0% in its presence for (a), 10.3% and 26.7% respectively, for (b).

CONCLUSIONS

This model provides a decision-making tool to predict the risk of liver disease that could help manage severely obese patients.

Consequences of TIPSS placement on the body composition of patients with cirrhosis and severe portal hypertension: a large retrospective CT-based surveillance

BACKGROUND

Body composition may be modified after improvement of portal hypertension (PHT) by transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt (TIPSS) insertion.

AIMS

To evaluate changes in body composition following TIPSS placement, their relationship with radiological TIPSS patency and function, and the predictive value of these parameters METHODS: We retrospectively included 179 patients with cirrhosis who underwent TIPSS placement in our centre for severe PHT from 2011 to 2017. CT scan-based surveillance was performed at baseline, 1-3 (M1-M3) and 6 months (M6).

RESULTS

The median model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score was 11.4 (8.8-15.1) and Child-Pugh score 8 (7-9). Only the MELD score (HR 1.14, 95% CI 1.08-1.20) and sarcopenia assessed by transversal right psoas muscle thickness at the umbilical level/height (TPMPT/height) (HR 0.86, 95% CI 0.79-0.96) were independently associated with 6-month mortality on multivariate analysis. After TIPSS insertion, TPMT/height increased from 19 mm/m (baseline) to 19.6 mm/m (M1-M3, P = 0.004) and 21.1 mm/m (M6, P < 0.0001). The improvement and its extent were dependent on the radiological patency and dysfunction of TIPSS. Subcutaneous fat surface (SCFS) increased from 183.4 to 193 cm² (P < 0.0001) and 229.8 cm² (P < 0.0001), respectively. We observed a decrease in visceral fat surface (VFS) between baseline and M1-M3 (163.5-140.5 cm² [P < 0.0001]), but not between M1-M3 and M6 (140.5-141.2 cm² [P = 0.9]). SCFS and VFS did not seem to be modified by radiological TIPSS patency and dysfunction.

CONCLUSIONS

Sarcopenia is independently associated with 6-month outcome and improves after TIPSS placement, together with an inverse evolution of subcutaneous and visceral fat. TIPSS not only treats PHT but also improves body composition.

A Model to Identify Heavy Drinkers at High Risk for Liver Disease Progression

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Alcohol-related liver disease (ALD) causes chronic liver disease. We investigated how information on patients' drinking history and amount, stage of liver disease, and demographic feature can be used to determine risk of disease progression.

METHODS

We collected data from 2334 heavy drinkers (50 g/day or more) with persistently abnormal results from liver tests who had been admitted to a hepato-gastroenterology unit in France from January 1982 through December 1997; patients with a recorded duration of alcohol abuse were assigned to the development cohort (n=1599; 75% men) or the validation cohort (n=735; 75% men), based on presence of a liver biopsy. We collected data from both cohorts on patient history and disease stage at the time of hospitalization. For the development cohort, severity of the disease was scored by the METAVIR (due to the availability of liver histology reports); in the validation cohort only the presence of liver complications was assessed. We developed a model of ALD progression and occurrence of liver complications (hepatocellular carcinoma and/or liver decompensation) in association with exposure to alcohol, age at the onset of heavy drinking, amount of alcohol intake, sex and body mass index. The model was fitted to the development cohort and then evaluated in the validation cohort. We then tested the ability of the model to predict disease progression for any patient profile (baseline evaluation). Patients with a 5-y weighted risk of liver complications greater than 5% were considered at high risk for disease progression.

RESULTS

Model results are given for the following patient profiles: men and women, 40 y old, who started drinking at an age of 25 y, drank 150 g/day, and had a body mass index of 22 kg/m² according to the disease severity at baseline evaluation. For men with baseline F0-F2 fibrosis, the model estimated the probabilities of normal liver, steatosis, or steatohepatitis at baseline to be 31.8%, 61.5% and 6.7%, respectively. The 5-y weighted risk of liver complications was 1.9%, ranging from 0.2% for men with normal liver at baseline evaluation to 10.3% for patients with steatohepatitis at baseline. For women with baseline F0-F2 fibrosis, probabilities of normal liver, steatosis, or steatohepatitis at baseline were 25.1%, 66.5% and 8.4%, respectively; the 5-y weighted risk of liver complications was 3.2%, ranging from 0.5% for women with normal liver at baseline to 14.7% for patients with steatohepatitis at baseline. Based on the model, men with F3-F4 fibrosis at baseline have a 24.5% 5-y weighted risk of complications (ranging from 20.2% to 34.5%) and women have a 30.1% 5-y weighted risk of complications (ranging from 24.7% to 41.0%).

CONCLUSIONS

We developed a Markov model that integrates data on level and duration of alcohol use to identify patients at high risk of liver disease progression. This model might be used to adapt patient care pathways.

Combined alcoholic and non-alcoholic steatohepatitis

While metabolic syndrome and alcohol consumption are the two main causes of chronic liver disease, one of the two conditions is often predominant, with the other acting as a cofactor of morbimortality. It has been shown that obesity and alcohol act synergistically to increase the risk of fibrosis progression, hepatic carcinogenesis and mortality, while genetic polymorphisms can strongly influence disease progression. Based on common pathogenic pathways, there are several potential targets that could be used to treat both diseases; based on the prevalence and incidence of these diseases, new therapies and clinical trials are needed urgently.