Key tropical crops at risk from pollinator loss due to climate change and land use

Insect pollinator biodiversity is changing rapidly, with potential consequences for the provision of crop pollination. However, the role of land use-climate interactions in pollinator biodiversity changes, as well as consequent economic effects via changes in crop pollination, remains poorly understood. We present a global assessment of the interactive effects of climate change and land use on pollinator abundance and richness and predictions of the risk to crop pollination from the inferred changes. Using a dataset containing 2673 sites and 3080 insect pollinator species, we show that the interactive combination of agriculture and climate change is associated with large reductions in insect pollinators. As a result, it is expected that the tropics will experience the greatest risk to crop production from pollinator losses. Localized risk is highest and predicted to increase most rapidly, in regions of sub-Saharan Africa, northern South America, and Southeast Asia. Via pollinator loss alone, climate change and agricultural land use could be a risk to human well-being.

Data standardization of plant-pollinator interactions

Background

Animal pollination is an important ecosystem function and service, ensuring both the integrity of natural systems and human well-being. Although many knowledge shortfalls remain, some high-quality data sets on biological interactions are now available. The development and adoption of standards for biodiversity data and metadata has promoted great advances in biological data sharing and aggregation, supporting large-scale studies and science-based public policies. However, these standards are currently not suitable to fully support interaction data sharing.

Results

Here we present a vocabulary of terms and a data model for sharing plant–pollinator interactions data based on the Darwin Core standard. The vocabulary introduces 48 new terms targeting several aspects of plant–pollinator interactions and can be used to capture information from different approaches and scales. Additionally, we provide solutions for data serialization using RDF, XML, and DwC-Archives and recommendations of existing controlled vocabularies for some of the terms. Our contribution supports open access to standardized data on plant–pollinator interactions.

Conclusions

The adoption of the vocabulary would facilitate data sharing to support studies ranging from the spatial and temporal distribution of interactions to the taxonomic, phenological, functional, and phylogenetic aspects of plant–pollinator interactions. We expect to fill data and knowledge gaps, thus further enabling scientific research on the ecology and evolution of plant–pollinator communities, biodiversity conservation, ecosystem services, and the development of public policies. The proposed data model is flexible and can be adapted for sharing other types of interactions data by developing discipline-specific vocabularies of terms.

CropPol: a dynamic, open and global database on crop pollination

Seventy five percent of the world's food crops benefit from insect pollination. Hence, there has been increased interest in how global change drivers impact this critical ecosystem service. Because standardized data on crop pollination are rarely available, we are limited in our capacity to understand the variation in pollination benefits to crop yield, as well as to anticipate changes in this service, develop predictions, and inform management actions. Here, we present CropPol, a dynamic, open and global database on crop pollination. It contains measurements recorded from 202 crop studies, covering 3,394 field observations, 2,552 yield measurements (i.e. berry weight, number of fruits and kg per hectare, among others), and 47,752 insect records from 48 commercial crops distributed around the globe. CropPol comprises 32 of the 87 leading global crops and commodities that are pollinator dependent. Malus domestica is the most represented crop (32 studies), followed by Brassica napus (22 studies), Vaccinium corymbosum (13 studies), and Citrullus lanatus (12 studies). The most abundant pollinator guilds recorded are honey bees (34.22% counts), bumblebees (19.19%), flies other than Syrphidae and Bombyliidae (13.18%), other wild bees (13.13%), beetles (10.97%), Syrphidae (4.87%), and Bombyliidae (0.05%). Locations comprise 34 countries distributed among Europe (76 studies), Northern America (60), Latin America and the Caribbean (29), Asia (20), Oceania (10), and Africa (7). Sampling spans three decades and is concentrated on 2001-05 (21 studies), 2006-10 (40), 2011-15 (88), and 2016-20 (50). This is the most comprehensive open global data set on measurements of crop flower visitors, crop pollinators and pollination to date, and we encourage researchers to add more datasets to this database in the future. This data set is released for non-commercial use only. Credits should be given to this paper (i.e., proper citation), and the products generated with this database should be shared under the same license terms (CC BY-NC-SA). This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Invasive hornets on the road: motorway-driven dispersal must be considered in management plans of Vespa velutina

Understanding the mechanisms that potentiate the dispersion of an invasive species is essential to anticipate its arrival into new regions and to develop adequate management actions to minimize damage to biodiversity and society. One of the most successful invaders in Europe, the yellow-legged hornet (Vespa velutina), is dispersing through self-diffusion and jump dispersal. Using information on species occurrence in Portugal from 2013 to 2018, this study aimed to understand the range expansion trajectory of V. velutina and to identify the role of climate, landscape and anthropogenic variables on the two mechanisms of spread. We found that in Portugal the invasion is proceeding faster southwards (45 km/year) along the Atlantic coast than eastwards (20 km/year) where the climatic suitability gradient is more compressed, with jump dispersal playing an important role in this difference and in the acceleration of the invasion process. Dispersal by diffusion was best explained by the annual range of temperature and precipitation of the wettest month, with distance to shrub land also having an important role. Additionally, jump dispersal appeared to be facilitated by motorways, hinting at the role of human-mediated dispersal. Indeed, the number of nests that resulted from this dispersive mechanism were significantly closer to motorways than expected by chance. To prevent the dispersal of V. velutina into Mediterranean regions, and in addition to a special attention to the advancing front, early monitoring programs should also target a buffer zone on both sides of motorways, and at freight shipping hubs.

The role of soils on pollination and seed dispersal

Ongoing environmental changes are affecting physical, chemical and biological soil components. Evidence of impacts of soil changes on pollinators' and seed dispersers' behaviour, fitness and density is scarce, but growing. Here, we reviewed information on such impacts and on a number of mechanisms that may explain its propagation, taking into account the full range of resources required by the large and diverse number of species of these two important functional groups. We show that while there is substantial evidence on the effects of soil nitrogen enrichment and changes in soil water content on the quality and quantity of floral and fruit resources, little is known on the effects of changes of other soil properties (e.g. soil pH, soil structure, other nutrients). Also, the few studies showing correlations between soil changes and pollinator and seed disperser foraging behaviour or fitness do not clearly identify the mechanisms that explain such correlation. Finally, most studies (including those with nitrogen and water) are local and limited to a small number of species, and it remains unclear how variable such effects are across time and geographical regions, and the strength of interactive effects between soil properties. Increasing research on this topic, taking into consideration how impacts propagate through species interaction networks, will provide essential information to predict impacts of ongoing environmental changes and help guide conservation plans that aim to minimize impacts on ecosystem functioning. This article is part of the theme issue 'The role of soils in delivering Nature's Contributions to People'.

Soil-derived Nature's Contributions to People and their contribution to the UN Sustainable Development Goals

This special issue provides an assessment of the contribution of soils to Nature's Contributions to People (NCP). Here, we combine this assessment and previously published relationships between NCP and delivery on the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) to infer contributions of soils to the SDGs. We show that in addition to contributing positively to the delivery of all NCP, soils also have a role in underpinning all SDGs. While highlighting the great potential of soils to contribute to sustainable development, it is recognized that poorly managed, degraded or polluted soils may contribute negatively to both NCP and SDGs. The positive contribution, however, cannot be taken for granted, and soils must be managed carefully to keep them healthy and capable of playing this vital role. A priority for soil management must include: (i) for healthy soils in natural ecosystems, protect them from conversion and degradation; (ii) for managed soils, manage in a way to protect and enhance soil biodiversity, health and sustainability and to prevent degradation; and (iii) for degraded soils, restore to full soil health. We have enough knowledge now to move forward with the implementation of best management practices to maintain and improve soil health. This analysis shows that this is not just desirable, it is essential if we are to meet the SDG targets by 2030 and achieve sustainable development more broadly in the decades to come. This article is part of the theme issue 'The role of soils in delivering Nature's Contributions to People'.

Wild insect diversity increases inter-annual stability in global crop pollinator communities

While an increasing number of studies indicate that the range, diversity and abundance of many wild pollinators has declined, the global area of pollinator-dependent crops has significantly increased over the last few decades. Crop pollination studies to date have mainly focused on either identifying different guilds pollinating various crops, or on factors driving spatial changes and turnover observed in these communities. The mechanisms driving temporal stability for ecosystem functioning and services, however, remain poorly understood. Our study quantifies temporal variability observed in crop pollinators in 21 different crops across multiple years at a global scale. Using data from 43 studies from six continents, we show that (i) higher pollinator diversity confers greater inter-annual stability in pollinator communities, (ii) temporal variation observed in pollinator abundance is primarily driven by the three-most dominant species, and (iii) crops in tropical regions demonstrate higher inter-annual variability in pollinator species richness than crops in temperate regions. We highlight the importance of recognizing wild pollinator diversity in agricultural landscapes to stabilize pollinator persistence across years to protect both biodiversity and crop pollination services. Short-term agricultural management practices aimed at dominant species for stabilizing pollination services need to be considered alongside longer term conservation goals focussed on maintaining and facilitating biodiversity to confer ecological stability.

Virtual pollination trade uncovers global dependence on biodiversity of developing countries

Nations' food consumption patterns are increasingly globalized and trade dependent. Natural resources used for agriculture (e.g., water, pollinators) are hence being virtually exchanged across countries. Inspired by the virtual water concept, we, herein, propose the concept of virtual biotic pollination flow as an indicator of countries' mutual dependence on biodiversity-based ecosystem services and provide an online tool to visualize trade flow. Using information on 55 pollinator-dependent crop markets (2001-2015), we show that countries with higher development level demand high levels of biodiversity-based services to sustain their consumption patterns. Such patterns are supported by importation of virtual biotic pollination (up to 40% of national imports of pollinator-dependent crops) from developing countries, stimulating cropland expansion. Quantifying virtual pollination flow can help develop new global socioeconomic policies to meet the interconnected challenges of biodiversity loss, ecosystem health, and social justice.

Forest and connectivity loss simplify tropical pollination networks

Mutualistic interactions between plants and pollinators play an essential role in the organization and persistence of biodiversity. The structure of interaction networks mediates the resilience of local communities and ecosystem functioning to environmental changes. Hence, network structure conservation may be more critical for maintaining biodiversity and ecological services than the preservation of isolated species in changing landscapes. Here, we intensively surveyed seven 36 km² landscapes to empirically investigate the effects of forest loss and landscape configuration on the structure of plant-pollinator networks in understory vegetation of Brazilian Atlantic Forest. Our results indicate that forest loss and isolation affect the structure of the plant-pollinator networks, which were smaller in deforested landscapes, and less specialized as patch isolation increased. Lower nestedness and degree of specialization (H'₂) indicated that the remaining plant and bee species tend to be generalists, and many of the expected specialized interactions in the network were already lost. Because generalist species generate a cohesive interaction core in these networks, these simplified networks might be resistant to loss of peripheral species, but may be susceptible to the extinction of the most generalist species. We suggest that such a network pattern is an outcome of landscapes with a few remaining isolated patches of natural habitat. Our results add a new perspective to studies of plant-pollinator networks in fragmented landscapes, showing that those interaction networks might also be used to indicate how changes in natural habitat affect biodiversity and biotic interactions.

Population genomics of Bombus terrestris reveals high but unstructured genetic diversity in a potential glacial refugium

Ongoing climate change is expected to cause an increase in temperature and a reduction of precipitation levels in the Mediterranean region, which might cause changes in many species distributions. These effects negatively influence species gene pools, decreasing genetic variability and adaptive potential. Here, we use mitochondrial DNA and RADseq to analyse population genetic structure and genetic diversity of the bumblebee species Bombus terrestris (subspecies Bombus terrestris lusitanicus), in the Iberian Peninsula. Although this subspecies shows a panmictic pattern of population structure across Iberia and beyond, we found differentiation between subspecies B. t. lusitanicus and B. t. africanus, probably caused by the existence of barriers to gene flow between Iberia and North Africa. Furthermore, the results revealed that the Iberian Peninsula harbours a large fraction of B. terrestris intraspecific genetic variation, with the highest number of mitochondrial haplotypes found when compared with any other region in Europe studied so far, suggesting a potential role for the Iberian Peninsula as a glacial refugium. Our findings strengthen the idea that Iberia is a very important source of diversity for the global genetic pool of this species, because rare alleles might play a role in population resilience against human- or climate-mediated changes.

Crop fertilization affects pollination service provision - Common bean as a case study

The demand for insect-pollinated crops is increasing. Conventional agricultural intensification heavily relies on increased input of fertilizers, which can have negative effects on local biodiversity. Such effects may be particularly accentuated in biodiversity hotspots that are naturally nutrient-poor. Ecological intensification of farming, i.e. practices that increase production through the increase of ecosystem services, emerges as an alternative to conventional intensification. For example, practices that boost abundance and diversity of crop pollinators can lead to substantial increases in cropland productivity. However, little is known about the synergisms and trade-offs between fertilizer input and such ecological intensification practices. Here we investigate interactive effects between fertilization practices and the provision of ecosystem services in a biodiversity hotspot where conventional agriculture is rapidly expanding (Brazilian savannas). We focus on a highly nitrogen-demanding crop species that benefits from pollinators (the common bean, Phaseolus vulgaris L.), for which nitrogen input greatly varies in the study region. Our findings show that positive effects of native pollinators on crop yield are most accentuated under low inputs of nitrogen (e.g. equal to or below 72kg ha-1). This interactive effect could be due to changes in flower visitor community composition or behaviour. Our study also suggests that landscape management practices that minimize isolation from patches of natural vegetation and maximize its cover nearby (within 500 meters) of production areas can increase pollinator and biocontrol agent abundance and richness. Overall, these results suggest that ecological intensification is a valuable alternative for common bean production in Brazil, and potentially other regions of the world. Land productivity can be enhanced if an adequate balance of chemical inputs and landscape management is achieved.

A global synthesis of the effects of diversified farming systems on arthropod diversity within fields and across agricultural landscapes

Agricultural intensification is a leading cause of global biodiversity loss, which can reduce the provisioning of ecosystem services in managed ecosystems. Organic farming and plant diversification are farm management schemes that may mitigate potential ecological harm by increasing species richness and boosting related ecosystem services to agroecosystems. What remains unclear is the extent to which farm management schemes affect biodiversity components other than species richness, and whether impacts differ across spatial scales and landscape contexts. Using a global metadataset, we quantified the effects of organic farming and plant diversification on abundance, local diversity (communities within fields), and regional diversity (communities across fields) of arthropod pollinators, predators, herbivores, and detritivores. Both organic farming and higher in-field plant diversity enhanced arthropod abundance, particularly for rare taxa. This resulted in increased richness but decreased evenness. While these responses were stronger at local relative to regional scales, richness and abundance increased at both scales, and richness on farms embedded in complex relative to simple landscapes. Overall, both organic farming and in-field plant diversification exerted the strongest effects on pollinators and predators, suggesting these management schemes can facilitate ecosystem service providers without augmenting herbivore (pest) populations. Our results suggest that organic farming and plant diversification promote diverse arthropod metacommunities that may provide temporal and spatial stability of ecosystem service provisioning. Conserving diverse plant and arthropod communities in farming systems therefore requires sustainable practices that operate both within fields and across landscapes.

The potential indirect effects among plants via shared hummingbird pollinators are structured by phenotypic similarity

Plant species within communities may overlap in pollinators' use and influence visitation patterns of shared pollinators, potentially engaging in indirect interactions (e.g., facilitation or competition). While several studies have explored the mechanisms regulating insect-pollination networks, there is a lack of studies on bird-pollination systems, particularly in species-rich tropical areas. Here, we evaluated if phenotypic similarity, resource availability (floral abundance), evolutionary relatedness and flowering phenology affect the potential for indirect effects via shared pollinators in hummingbird-pollinated plant species within four communities in the Brazilian Atlantic forest. Among the evaluated factors, phenotypic similarity (corolla length and anther height) was the most important variable, while resource availability (floral abundance) had a secondary importance. On the other hand, evolutionary relatedness and flowering phenology were less important, which altogether highlights the relevance of convergent evolution and that the contribution of a plant to the diet of the pollinators of another plant is independent of the level of temporal overlap in flowering in this tropical system. Interestingly, our findings contrast with results from multiple insect-pollinated plant communities, mostly from temperate regions, in which floral abundance was the most important driver, followed by evolutionary relatedness and phenotypic similarity. We propose that these contrasting results are due to high level of specialization inherent to tropical hummingbird-pollination systems. Moreover, our results demonstrated that factors defining linkage rules of plant-hummingbird networks also determinate plant-plant potential indirect effects. Future studies are needed to test if these findings can be generalized to other highly specialized systems. Overall, our results have important implications for the understanding of ecological processes due resource sharing in mutualistic systems.

Beekeeping practices and geographic distance, not land use, drive gene flow across tropical bees

Across the globe, wild bees are threatened by ongoing natural habitat loss, risking the maintenance of plant biodiversity and agricultural production. Despite the ecological and economic importance of wild bees and the fact that several species are now managed for pollination services worldwide, little is known about how land use and beekeeping practices jointly influence gene flow. Using stingless bees as a model system, containing wild and managed species that are presumed to be particularly susceptible to habitat degradation, here we examine the main drivers of tropical bee gene flow. We employ a novel landscape genetic approach to analyse data from 135 populations of 17 stingless bee species distributed across diverse tropical biomes within the Americas. Our work has important methodological implications, as we illustrate how a maximum-likelihood approach can be applied in a meta-analysis framework to account for multiple factors, and weight estimates by sample size. In contrast to previously held beliefs, gene flow was not related to body size or deforestation, and isolation by geographic distance (IBD) was significantly affected by management, with managed species exhibiting a weaker IBD than wild ones. Our study thus reveals the critical importance of beekeeping practices in shaping the patterns of genetic differentiation across bee species. Additionally, our results show that many stingless bee species maintain high gene flow across heterogeneous landscapes. We suggest that future efforts to preserve wild tropical bees should focus on regulating beekeeping practices to maintain natural gene flow and enhancing pollinator-friendly habitats, prioritizing species showing a limited dispersal ability.

Functional traits help to explain half-century long shifts in pollinator distributions

Changes in climate and land use can have important impacts on biodiversity. Species respond to such environmental modifications by adapting to new conditions or by shifting their geographic distributions towards more suitable areas. The latter might be constrained by species’ functional traits that influence their ability to move, reproduce or establish. Here, we show that functional traits related to dispersal, reproduction, habitat use and diet have influenced how three pollinator groups (bees, butterflies and hoverflies) responded to changes in climate and land-use in the Netherlands since 1950. Across the three pollinator groups, we found pronounced areal range expansions (>53%) and modelled range shifts towards the north (all taxa: 17–22 km), west (bees: 14 km) and east (butterflies: 11 km). The importance of specific functional traits for explaining distributional changes varied among pollinator groups. Larval diet preferences (i.e. carnivorous vs. herbivorous/detritivorous and nitrogen values of host plants, respectively) were important for hoverflies and butterflies, adult body size for hoverflies, and flight period length for all groups. Moreover, interactions among multiple traits were important to explain species’ geographic range shifts, suggesting that taxon-specific multi-trait analyses are needed to predict how global change will affect biodiversity and ecosystem services.

The impact of over 80 years of land cover changes on bee and wasp pollinator communities in England

Change in land cover is thought to be one of the key drivers of pollinator declines, and yet there is a dearth of studies exploring the relationships between historical changes in land cover and shifts in pollinator communities. Here, we explore, for the first time, land cover changes in England over more than 80 years, and relate them to concurrent shifts in bee and wasp species richness and community composition. Using historical data from 14 sites across four counties, we quantify the key land cover changes within and around these sites and estimate the changes in richness and composition of pollinators. Land cover changes within sites, as well as changes within a 1 km radius outside the sites, have significant effects on richness and composition of bee and wasp species, with changes in edge habitats between major land classes also having a key influence. Our results highlight not just the land cover changes that may be detrimental to pollinator communities, but also provide an insight into how increases in habitat diversity may benefit species diversity, and could thus help inform policy and practice for future land management.

Mutually beneficial pollinator diversity and crop yield outcomes in small and large farms

Ecological intensification, or the improvement of crop yield through enhancement of biodiversity, may be a sustainable pathway toward greater food supplies. Such sustainable increases may be especially important for the 2 billion people reliant on small farms, many of which are undernourished, yet we know little about the efficacy of this approach. Using a coordinated protocol across regions and crops, we quantify to what degree enhancing pollinator density and richness can improve yields on 344 fields from 33 pollinator-dependent crop systems in small and large farms from Africa, Asia, and Latin America. For fields less than 2 hectares, we found that yield gaps could be closed by a median of 24% through higher flower-visitor density. For larger fields, such benefits only occurred at high flower-visitor richness. Worldwide, our study demonstrates that ecological intensification can create synchronous biodiversity and yield outcomes.

Testing projected wild bee distributions in agricultural habitats: predictive power depends on species traits and habitat type

Species distribution models (SDM) are increasingly used to understand the factors that regulate variation in biodiversity patterns and to help plan conservation strategies. However, these models are rarely validated with independently collected data and it is unclear whether SDM performance is maintained across distinct habitats and for species with different functional traits. Highly mobile species, such as bees, can be particularly challenging to model. Here, we use independent sets of occurrence data collected systematically in several agricultural habitats to test how the predictive performance of SDMs for wild bee species depends on species traits, habitat type, and sampling technique. We used a species distribution modeling approach parametrized for the Netherlands, with presence records from 1990 to 2010 for 193 Dutch wild bees. For each species, we built a Maxent model based on 13 climate and landscape variables. We tested the predictive performance of the SDMs with independent datasets collected from orchards and arable fields across the Netherlands from 2010 to 2013, using transect surveys or pan traps. Model predictive performance depended on species traits and habitat type. Occurrence of bee species specialized in habitat and diet was better predicted than generalist bees. Predictions of habitat suitability were also more precise for habitats that are temporally more stable (orchards) than for habitats that suffer regular alterations (arable), particularly for small, solitary bees. As a conservation tool, SDMs are best suited to modeling rarer, specialist species than more generalist and will work best in long-term stable habitats. The variability of complex, short-term habitats is difficult to capture in such models and historical land use generally has low thematic resolution. To improve SDMs' usefulness, models require explanatory variables and collection data that include detailed landscape characteristics, for example, variability of crops and flower availability. Additionally, testing SDMs with field surveys should involve multiple collection techniques.

Delivery of crop pollination services is an insufficient argument for wild pollinator conservation

There is compelling evidence that more diverse ecosystems deliver greater benefits to people, and these ecosystem services have become a key argument for biodiversity conservation. However, it is unclear how much biodiversity is needed to deliver ecosystem services in a cost-effective way. Here we show that, while the contribution of wild bees to crop production is significant, service delivery is restricted to a limited subset of all known bee species. Across crops, years and biogeographical regions, crop-visiting wild bee communities are dominated by a small number of common species, and threatened species are rarely observed on crops. Dominant crop pollinators persist under agricultural expansion and many are easily enhanced by simple conservation measures, suggesting that cost-effective management strategies to promote crop pollination should target a different set of species than management strategies to promote threatened bees. Conserving the biological diversity of bees therefore requires more than just ecosystem-service-based arguments.

One argument for conserving biological diversity is that it delivers beneficial ecosystem services. However, Kleijn et al. show that the economic benefits of crop pollination are delivered by only a small subset of relatively common species, arguing that threatened species should be considered separately.

Short-term effect of nutrient availability and rainfall distribution on biomass production and leaf nutrient content of savanna tree species

Changes in land use may lead to increased soil nutrient levels in many ecosystems (e.g. due to intensification of agricultural fertilizer use). Plant species differ widely in their response to differences in soil nutrients, and for savannas it is uncertain how this nutrient enrichment will affect plant community dynamics. We set up a large controlled short-term experiment in a semi-arid savanna to test how water supply (even water supply vs. natural rainfall) and nutrient availability (no fertilisation vs. fertilisation) affects seedlings' above-ground biomass production and leaf-nutrient concentrations (N, P and K) of broad-leafed and fine-leafed tree species. Contrary to expectations, neither changes in water supply nor changes in soil nutrient level affected biomass production of the studied species. By contrast, leaf-nutrient concentration did change significantly. Under regular water supply, soil nutrient addition increased the leaf phosphorus concentration of both fine-leafed and broad-leafed species. However, under uneven water supply, leaf nitrogen and phosphorus concentration declined with soil nutrient supply, this effect being more accentuated in broad-leafed species. Leaf potassium concentration of broad-leafed species was lower when growing under constant water supply, especially when no NPK fertilizer was applied. We found that changes in environmental factors can affect leaf quality, indicating a potential interactive effect between land-use changes and environmental changes on savanna vegetation: under more uneven rainfall patterns within the growing season, leaf quality of tree seedlings for a number of species can change as a response to changes in nutrient levels, even if overall plant biomass does not change. Such changes might affect herbivore pressure on trees and thus savanna plant community dynamics. Although longer term experiments would be essential to test such potential effects of eutrophication via changes in leaf nutrient concentration, our findings provide important insights that can help guide management plans that aim to preserve savanna biodiversity.

Tree species from different functional groups respond differently to environmental changes during establishment

Savanna plant communities change considerably across time and space. The processes driving savanna plant species diversity, coexistence and turnover along environmental gradients are still unclear. Understanding how species respond differently to varying environmental conditions during the seedling stage, a critical stage for plant population dynamics, is needed to explain the current composition of plant communities and to enable us to predict their responses to future environmental changes. Here we investigate whether seedling response to changes in resource availability, and to competition with grass, varied between two functional groups of African savanna trees: species with small leaves, spines and N-fixing associations (fine-leaved species), and species with broad leaves, no spines, and lacking N-fixing associations (broad-leaved species). We show that while tree species were strongly suppressed by grass, the effect of resource availability on seedling performance varied considerably between the two functional groups. Nutrient inputs increased stem length only of broad-leaved species and only under an even watering treatment. Low light conditions benefited mostly broad-leaved species' growth. Savannas are susceptible to ongoing global environment changes. Our results suggest that an increase in woody cover is only likely to occur in savannas if grass cover is strongly suppressed (e.g. by fire or overgrazing). However, if woody cover does increase, broad-leaved species will benefit most from the resulting shaded environments, potentially leading to an expansion of the distribution of these species. Eutrophication and changes in rainfall patterns may also affect the balance between fine- and broad-leaved species.

Fit-for-purpose: species distribution model performance depends on evaluation criteria - Dutch Hoverflies as a case study

Understanding species distributions and the factors limiting them is an important topic in ecology and conservation, including in nature reserve selection and predicting climate change impacts. While Species Distribution Models (SDM) are the main tool used for these purposes, choosing the best SDM algorithm is not straightforward as these are plentiful and can be applied in many different ways. SDM are used mainly to gain insight in 1) overall species distributions, 2) their past-present-future probability of occurrence and/or 3) to understand their ecological niche limits (also referred to as ecological niche modelling). The fact that these three aims may require different models and outputs is, however, rarely considered and has not been evaluated consistently. Here we use data from a systematically sampled set of species occurrences to specifically test the performance of Species Distribution Models across several commonly used algorithms. Species range in distribution patterns from rare to common and from local to widespread. We compare overall model fit (representing species distribution), the accuracy of the predictions at multiple spatial scales, and the consistency in selection of environmental correlations all across multiple modelling runs. As expected, the choice of modelling algorithm determines model outcome. However, model quality depends not only on the algorithm, but also on the measure of model fit used and the scale at which it is used. Although model fit was higher for the consensus approach and Maxent, Maxent and GAM models were more consistent in estimating local occurrence, while RF and GBM showed higher consistency in environmental variables selection. Model outcomes diverged more for narrowly distributed species than for widespread species. We suggest that matching study aims with modelling approach is essential in Species Distribution Models, and provide suggestions how to do this for different modelling aims and species' data characteristics (i.e. sample size, spatial distribution).