Using multi-criteria risk ranking methodology to select case studies for a generic risk assessment framework for exotic disease incursion and spread through Europe

We present a novel approach of using the multi-criteria pathogen prioritisation methodology as a basis for selecting the most appropriate case studies for a generic risk assessment framework. The approach uses selective criteria to rank exotic animal health pathogens according to the likelihood of introduction and the impact of an outbreak if it occurred in the European Union (EU). Pathogens were evaluated based on their impact on production at the EU level and international trade. A subsequent analysis included criteria of relevance to quantitative risk assessment case study selection, such as the availability of data for parameterisation, the need for further research and the desire for the case studies to cover different routes of transmission. The framework demonstrated is flexible with the ability to adjust both the criteria and their weightings to the user's requirements. A web based tool has been developed using the RStudio shiny apps software, to facilitate this.

Rabies Vaccination: Higher Failure Rates in Imported Dogs than in those Vaccinated in Italy

The current European Union (EU) legislation decrees that pets entering the EU from a rabies-infected third country have to obtain a satisfactory virus-neutralizing antibody level, while those moving within the EU require only rabies vaccination as the risk of moving a rabid pet within the EU is considered negligible. A number of factors driving individual variations in dog vaccine response have been previously reported, including a high rate of vaccine failure in puppies, especially those subject to commercial transport. A total of 21 001 observations collected from dogs (2006-2012) vaccinated in compliance with the current EU regulations were statistically analysed to assess the effect of different risk factors related to rabies vaccine efficacy. Within this framework, we were able to compare the vaccination failure rate in a group of dogs entering the Italian border from EU and non-EU countries to those vaccinated in Italy prior to international travel. Our analysis identified that cross-breeds and two breed categories showed high vaccine success rates, while Beagles and Boxers were the least likely to show a successful response to vaccination (88.82% and 90.32%, respectively). Our analysis revealed diverse performances among the commercially available vaccines, in terms of serological peak windows, and marked differences according to geographical area. Of note, we found a higher vaccine failure rate in imported dogs (13.15%) than in those vaccinated in Italy (5.89%). Our findings suggest that the choice of vaccine may influence the likelihood of an animal achieving a protective serological level and that time from vaccination to sampling should be considered when interpreting serological results. A higher vaccine failure in imported compared to Italian dogs highlights the key role that border controls still have in assessing the full compliance of pet movements with EU legislation to minimize the risk of rabies being reintroduced into a disease-free area.

Modelling the species jump: towards assessing the risk of human infection from novel avian influenzas

The scientific understanding of the driving factors behind zoonotic and pandemic influenzas is hampered by complex interactions between viruses, animal hosts and humans. This complexity makes identifying influenza viruses of high zoonotic or pandemic risk, before they emerge from animal populations, extremely difficult and uncertain. As a first step towards assessing zoonotic risk of influenza, we demonstrate a risk assessment framework to assess the relative likelihood of influenza A viruses, circulating in animal populations, making the species jump into humans. The intention is that such a risk assessment framework could assist decision-makers to compare multiple influenza viruses for zoonotic potential and hence to develop appropriate strain-specific control measures. It also provides a first step towards showing proof of principle for an eventual pandemic risk model. We show that the spatial and temporal epidemiology is as important in assessing the risk of an influenza A species jump as understanding the innate molecular capability of the virus. We also demonstrate data deficiencies that need to be addressed in order to consistently combine both epidemiological and molecular virology data into a risk assessment framework.

Effects of cold-water immersion and contrast-water therapy after training in young soccer players

AIM

Recent studies have investigated the importance of recovery strategies after training session, including hydrotherapy and cryotherapy. However, only a few studies have focused on cold-water immersion (CWI) treatments in team sport disciplines. The present study investigates the effects of CWI and contrast-water therapy (CWT) on the performance of young male soccer players during a week of training.

METHODS

Eighteen young soccer players participated in the present study (age 15.5±1.0 years, weight 61.8±3.0 Kg, height 175.5±4.0 cm and training experience 8.1±1.0 years). They were involved in a four-day study with recovery using CWI or with CWT after each training session by using performance tests and small-sided games. We measured uric acid concentration, leukocytes, haemoglobin, reticulocytes and creatine kinase changes in the blood, axillary temperature, rating of perceived exertion after a training session, heart rate during exercise, performance tests (counter movement jump, repeated sprint ability and 5' shuttle run).

RESULTS

No significant difference were reported between groups when different physiological tests were used; CWI and CWT did not negatively influence the performances of the athletes. The principal effect of CWI was a reduced perception of fatigue after the training session. The use of active recovery protocols based on cold water or cold/thermoneutral water did not induce modifications of inflammatory and haematological markers in young soccer players.

CONCLUSION

The beneficial effect of a reduced perception of fatigue can improve training and competitions in young soccer players.

JET CLASSIFICATION AT CDF

Results for the classification of jets obtained with the use feed-forward neural networks are reviewed with particular attention to model-dependence, flavor sensitivity and Et-dependence. First results obtained with a Kohonen-type network are also presented and both are compared with those obtained with a Fisher discriminant.