Evaluating the impact of hydrometeorological conditions on E. coli concentration in farmed mussels and clams: experience in Central Italy

Highly populated coastal environments receive large quantities of treated and untreated wastewater from human and industrial sources. Bivalve molluscs accumulate and retain contaminants, and their analysis provides evidence of past contamination. Rivers and precipitation are major routes of bacteriological pollution from surface or sub-surface runoff flowing into coastal areas. However, relationships between runoff, precipitation, and bacterial contamination are site-specific and dependent on the physiographical characteristics of each catchment. In this work, we evaluated the influence of precipitation and river discharge on molluscs' Escherichia coli concentrations at three sites in Central Italy, aiming at quantifying how hydrometeorological conditions affect bacteriological contamination of selected bivalve production areas. Rank-order correlation analysis indicated a stronger association between E. coli concentrations and the modelled Pescara River discharge maxima (r = 0.69) than between E. coli concentration and rainfall maxima (r = 0.35). Discharge peaks from the Pescara River caused an increase in E. coli concentration in bivalves in 87% of cases, provided that the runoff peak occurred 1-6 days prior to the sampling date. Precipitation in coastal area was linked to almost 60% of cases of E. coli high concentrations and may enhance bacterial transportation offshore, when associated with a larger-scale weather system, which causes overflow occurrence.

Model of care and risk factors for poor outcomes in patients on multi-drug resistant tuberculosis treatment at two facilities in eSwatini (formerly Swaziland), 2011-2013

Introduction

Since 2011 Médecins sans Frontières together with the eSwatini Ministry of Health have been managing patients with multi-drug resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB) at Matsapha and Mankayane in Manzini region. This analysis describes the model of care and outcomes of patients receiving a 20 months MDR-TB treatment regimen between 2011 and 2013.

Method

We conducted a retrospective observational cohort study of MDR-TB patients enrolled for treatment between May 2011 and December 2013. An extensive package of psychological care and socio-economic incentives were provided including psychological support, paid treatment supporters, transport fees and a monthly food package. Baseline demographic details and treatment outcomes were recorded and for HIV positive patient’s univariate analysis as well as a cox regression hazard model were undertaken to assess risk factors for unfavorable outcomes.

Results

From the 174 patients enrolled, 156 (89.7%) were HIV co-infected, 102 (58.6%) were female, median age 33 years old (IQR: 28–42), 55 (31.6%) had a BMI less than 18 and 86 (49.4%) had not been previously treated for any form of TB. Overall cohort outcomes revealed a 75.3% treatment success rate, 21.3% mortality rate, 0.6% failure and 0.6% lost to follow-up rate. In the adjusted multivariate analysis, low BMI and low CD4 count at treatment initiation were associated with an increased risk of unfavorable outcome.

Conclusions

A model of care that included psychosocial support and patient’s enablers led to a high level of treatment success with a very low lost to follow up rate. Limiting the overall treatment success was a high mortality rate which was associated with advanced HIV and a low BMI at presentation. These factors will need to be addressed in order to improve upon the overall treatment success rate in future.

Analysis of surface ozone using a recurrent neural network

Hourly concentrations of ozone (O₃) and nitrogen dioxide (NO₂) have been measured for 16 years, from 1998 to 2013, in a seaside town in central Italy. The seasonal trends of O₃ and NO₂ recorded in this period have been studied. Furthermore, we used the data collected during one year (2005), to define the characteristics of a multiple linear regression model and a neural network model. Both models are used to model the hourly O₃ concentration, using, two scenarios: 1) in the first as inputs, only meteorological parameters and 2) in the second adding photochemical parameters at those of the first scenario. In order to evaluate the performance of the model four statistical criteria are used: correlation coefficient, fractional bias, normalized mean squared error and a factor of two. All the criteria show that the neural network gives better results, compared to the regression model, in all the model scenarios. Predictions of O₃ have been carried out by many authors using a feed forward neural architecture. In this paper we show that a recurrent architecture significantly improves the performances of neural predictors. Using only the meteorological parameters as input, the recurrent architecture shows performance better than the multiple linear regression model that uses meteorological and photochemical data as input, making the neural network model with recurrent architecture a more useful tool in areas where only weather measurements are available. Finally, we used the neural network model to forecast the O₃ hourly concentrations 1, 3, 6, 12, 24 and 48 h ahead. The performances of the model in predicting O₃ levels are discussed. Emphasis is given to the possibility of using the neural network model in operational ways in areas where only meteorological data are available, in order to predict O₃ also in sites where it has not been measured yet.

Changing hydrological conditions in the Po basin under global warming

The Po River is a crucial resource for the Italian economy, since 40% of the gross domestic product comes from this area. It is thus crucial to quantify the impact of climate change on this water resource in order to plan for future water use. In this paper a mini ensemble of 8 hydrological simulations is completed from 1960 to 2050 under the A1B emission scenario, by using the output of two regional climate models as input (REMO and RegCM) at two different resolutions (25 km-10 km and 25 km-3 km). The river discharge at the outlet point of the basin shows a change in the spring peak of the annual cycle, with a one month shift from May to April. This shift is entirely due to the change in snowmelt timing which drives most of the discharge during this period. Two other important changes are an increase of discharge in the wintertime and a decrease in the fall from September to November. The uncertainty associated with the winter change is larger compared to that in the fall. The spring shift and the fall decrease of discharge imply an extension of the hydrological dry season and thus an increase in water stress over the basin. The spatial distributions of the discharge changes are in agreement with what is observed at the outlet point and the uncertainty associated with these changes is proportional to the amplitude of the signal. The analysis of the changes in the anomaly distribution of discharge shows that both the increases and decreases in seasonal discharge are tied to the changes in the tails of the distribution, i.e. to the increase or decrease of extreme events.

Hepatic portal venous gas in a patient with enterovascular fistula

Hepatic portal venous gas is an uncommon clinical condition that is often characterized by acute onset of abdominal pain and is associated with a high rate of mortality despite clinical and/or surgical treatment. Radiologic diagnosis is important and usually includes abdominal radiography, ultrasound, and computed tomography. We describe the clinical, computed tomographic, and angiographic data of a patient with sigmoid diverticulitis who developed a massive embolism of the intra- and extrahepatic portal systems due to an enterovascular fistula and was treated with fistula embolization and subsequent sigmoidectomy.

Convulsive disorder and genetic polymorphism. Association of idiopathic generalized epilepsy with haptoglobin polymorphism

Haptoglobin is a polymorphic protein that is well known for its hemoglobin (Hb)-binding property. The protein shows gross differences in molecular size among genotypes, resulting in different degrees of diffusion in central nervous system tissue. Since the breakdown of erythrocytes in the intracerebral fluid results in Hb-mediated free OH radical formation, lipid peroxidation, and increased neuronal excitability, a differential diffusion of haptoglobin phenotypes in the intracerebral fluid might result in a different degree of protection from oxidative damage. We have studied two samples of children with idiopathic generalized epilepsy from two different Italian populations. In both samples the haptoglobin *1/*1 genotype is much less represented in epileptic children than in controls. These observations suggest that subjects carrying the Hp*1/*1 genotype, that has the lowest molecular size and diffuses more readily in the interstitial cerebral fluid, are more protected against idiopathic generalized epilepsy than those with other haptoglobin genotypes.

GABA(A) receptor active steroids are altered in epilepsy patients with tuberous sclerosis

BACKGROUND

The neuroactive steroid 3alpha, 5alpha-tetrahydroprogesterone is the most potent endogenous positive modulator of gamma-amino-butyric acid (GABA)(A) receptors. There is evidence for a relation between neuroactive steroids and seizure susceptibility.

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the putative role of counteregulator neuroactive steroids in the occurrence of seizures in patients with tuberous sclerosis.

METHODS

Plasma concentrations of the enantiomers 3alpha, 5alpha- and 3alpha, 5beta-tetrahydroprogesterone (3alpha(s)-THP), which are positive modulators of GABA(A) receptors, were measured in 18 patients, along with their endogenous functional antagonists 3beta, 5alpha- and 3beta, 5beta-THP (3beta(s)-THP), to assess their possible modification compared with control subjects. Neuroactive steroids were assayed using a highly sensitive and specific gas chromatographic/mass spectrometric method.

RESULTS

In the tuberous sclerosis patients with poorly controlled seizures, there was a significantly lower 3alpha(s)/3beta(s)-THP ratio than in seizure-free patients or control subjects.

CONCLUSIONS

The reduced 3alpha(s)/3beta(s)-THP ratio may decrease GABAergic tone, contributing to the appearance of seizures in tuberous sclerosis patients with epilepsy.

Infantile spasms in tuberous sclerosis complex

The high incidence of infantile spasms (IS) and hypsarrhythmia in tuberous sclerosis complex (TSC) has long been emphasized but it is now clear that infants with TSC show clinical and EEG differences from those with classical West syndrome. Seizures at onset are mainly characterized by partial motor seizures and IS. Subtle partial seizures may be present in the early neonatal period and may precede the onset of IS. Visual recording techniques have led to significant progress in the classification of seizures associated with TSC, demonstrating that they have a focal or multifocal origin in the vast majority of cases. In most cases, an awake interictal EEG shows focal or independent multifocal spike and slow-wave activity at onset and later a pseudo-hypsarrhythmic pattern. Ictal EEG starts with focal spikes originating from the posterotemporal, or occipital regions followed by a generalized irregular slow transient and an abrupt diffuse flattening. Although the pathophysiological mechanisms responsible for the coexistence of partial seizures and IS are still unclear, IS associated with TSC may be the result of a rapid secondary generalization. The presence of IS due to TSC is strongly predicted by the cortical tuber count, while the age of onset of seizures and the age of occurrence of EEG foci depend on the localization of cortical tubers with an earlier expression of the parieto-occipital than of the frontal regions. Early recognition of these distinctive features appears worthwhile for therapeutic and prognostic implications. Despite the efficacy of vigabatrin the prognosis of IS is generally poor. Studies using combined topographic mapping of EEG, magnetic resonance imaging and positron emission tomography may provide new strategies for selecting candidates suitable for surgery.

Vigabatrin for tuberous sclerosis complex

Vigabatrin (VGB) was found to be an effective anti-epileptic drug to reduce infantile spasms in about 50% of patients and it has been found most effective in infantile spasms due to tuberous sclerosis (TSC) in which up to 95% of infants had complete cessation of their spasms. VGB was synthesized to enhance inhibitory gamma-aminobutyric acidergic (GABAergic) transmission by elevating GABA levels via irreversible inhibition of GABA transaminase. The mechanism underlying the particular efficacy of VGB in TSC is still unknown. However, its efficacy suggests that epileptogenesis in TSC may be related to an impairment of GABAergic transmission. VGB should be considered as the first line monotheraphy for the treatment of infantile spasms in infants with confirmed diagnosis of TSC. The efficacy of VGB treatment can be assessed in less than 10 days, but usually a few days treatment with a dose of about 100 mg/kg/day stops infantile spasms. The cessation of the spasms is associated with a marked improvement of behaviour and mental development. Unfortunately, it has become clear that the use of VGB is associated with a late appearance of visual-field defects in up to 50% of patients. Currently the minimum duration and doses of VGB treatment that can produce side effects are unknown. The feasibility of using short treatment periods (2-3 months) should be investigated.