COVID-19-related healthcare impacts: an uncontrolled, segmented time-series analysis of tuberculosis diagnosis services in Mozambique, 2017-2020

Introduction

Currently, COVID-19 dominates the public health agenda and poses a permanent threat, leading to health systems’ exhaustion and unprecedented service disruption. Primary healthcare services, including tuberculosis services, are at increased risk of facing severe disruptions, particularly in low-income and middle-income countries. Indeed, corroborating model-based forecasts, there is increasing evidence of the COVID-19 pandemic’s negative impact on tuberculosis case detection.

Methods

Applying a segmented time-series analysis, we assessed the effects of COVID-19-related measures on tuberculosis diagnosis service across districts in Mozambique. Ministry health information system data were used from the first quarter of 2017 to the end of 2020. The model, performed under the Bayesian premises, was estimated as a negative binomial with random effects for districts and provinces.

Results

A total of 154 districts were followed for 16 consecutive quarters. Together, these districts reported 96 182 cases of all forms of tuberculosis in 2020. At baseline (first quarter of 2017), Mozambique had an estimated incidence rate of 283 (95% CI 200 to 406) tuberculosis cases per 100 000 people and this increased at a 5% annual rate through the end of 2019. We estimated that 17 147 new tuberculosis cases were potentially missed 9 months after COVID-19 onset, resulting in a 15.1% (95% CI 5.9 to 24.0) relative loss in 2020. The greatest impact was observed in the southern region at 40.0% (95% CI 30.1 to 49.0) and among men at 15% (95% CI 4.0 to 25.0). The incidence of pulmonary tuberculosis increased at an average rate of 6.6% annually; however, an abrupt drop (15%) was also observed immediately after COVID-19 onset in March 2020.

Conclusion

The most significant impact of the state of emergency was observed between April and June 2020, the quarter after COVID-19 onset. Encouragingly, by the end of 2020, clear signs of health system recovery were visible despite the initial shock.

Nasopharyngeal carriage of Streptococcus pneumoniae among HIV-infected and -uninfected children <5 years of age before introduction of pneumococcal conjugate vaccine in Mozambique

Nasopharyngeal carriage is a precursor for pneumococcal disease and can be useful for evaluating pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV) impact. We studied pre-PCV pneumococcal carriage among HIV-infected and -uninfected children in Mozambique. Between October 2012 and March 2013, we enrolled HIV-infected children age <5 years presenting for routine care at seven HIV clinics in 3 sites, including Maputo (urban-south), Nampula (urban-north), and Manhiça (rural-south). We also enrolled a random sample of HIV-uninfected children <5 years old from a demographic surveillance site in Manhiça. A single nasopharyngeal swab was obtained and cultured following enrichment in Todd Hewitt broth with yeast extract and rabbit serum. Pneumococcal isolates were serotyped by Quellung reaction and multiplex polymerase chain reaction. Factors associated with pneumococcal carriage were examined using logistic regression. Overall pneumococcal carriage prevalence was 80.5% (585/727), with similar prevalences among HIV-infected (81.5%, 339/416) and HIV-uninfected (79.1%, 246/311) children, and across age strata. Among HIV-infected, after adjusting for recent antibiotic use and hospitalization, there was no significant association between study site and colonization: Maputo (74.8%, 92/123), Nampula (83.7%, 82/98), Manhiça (84.6%, 165/195). Among HIV-uninfected, report of having been born to an HIV-infected mother was not associated with colonization. Among 601 pneumococcal isolates from 585 children, serotypes 19F (13.5%), 23F (13.1%), 6A (9.2%), 6B (6.2%) and 19A (5.2%) were most common. The proportion of serotypes included in the 10- and 13-valent vaccines was 44.9% and 61.7%, respectively, with no significant differences by HIV status or age group. Overall 36.9% (n = 268) of children were colonized with a PCV10 serotype and 49.7% (n = 361) with a PCV13 serotype. Pneumococcal carriage was common, with little variation by geographic region, age, or HIV status. PCV10 was introduced in April 2013; ongoing carriage studies will examine the benefits of PCV10 among HIV-infected and–uninfected children.