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Zhao X, Mignone BK, Wise MA, McJeon HC. Trade-offs in land-based carbon removal measures under 1.5 °C and 2 °C futures. Nat Commun 2024; 15:2297. [PMID: 38485972 PMCID: PMC10940641 DOI: 10.1038/s41467-024-46575-3] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/07/2023] [Accepted: 03/01/2024] [Indexed: 03/18/2024] Open
Abstract
Land-based carbon removals, specifically afforestation/reforestation and bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS), vary widely in 1.5 °C and 2 °C scenarios generated by integrated assessment models. Because underlying drivers are difficult to assess, we use a well-known integrated assessment model, GCAM, to demonstrate that land-based carbon removals are sensitive to the strength and scope of land-based mitigation policies. We find that while cumulative afforestation/reforestation and BECCS deployment are inversely related, they are both typically part of cost-effective mitigation pathways, with forestry options deployed earlier. While the CO2 removal intensity (removal per unit land) of BECCS is typically higher than afforestation/reforestation over long time horizons, the BECCS removal intensity is sensitive to feedstock and technology choices whereas the afforestation/reforestation removal intensity is sensitive to land policy choices. Finally, we find a generally positive relationship between agricultural prices and removal effectiveness of land-based mitigation, suggesting that some trade-offs may be difficult to avoid.
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Affiliation(s)
- Xin Zhao
- Joint Global Change Research Institute, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, 5825 University Research Ct, College Park, MD, USA.
| | - Bryan K Mignone
- ExxonMobil Technology and Engineering Company, Annandale, NJ, USA
| | - Marshall A Wise
- Joint Global Change Research Institute, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, 5825 University Research Ct, College Park, MD, USA
| | - Haewon C McJeon
- Joint Global Change Research Institute, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, 5825 University Research Ct, College Park, MD, USA
- KAIST Graduate School of Green Growth & Sustainability, Daejeon, Republic of Korea
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Zhao X, Wise MA, Waldhoff ST, Kyle GP, Huster JE, Ramig CW, Rafelski LE, Patel PL, Calvin KV. The impact of agricultural trade approaches on global economic modeling. Glob Environ Change 2022; 73:1-15. [PMID: 36203542 PMCID: PMC9534032 DOI: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2021.102413] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 06/16/2023]
Abstract
Researchers explore future economic and climate scenarios using global economic and integrated assessment models to understand long-term interactions between human development and global environmental changes. However, differences in trade modeling approaches are an important source of uncertainty in these types of assessments, particularly for regional projections. In this study, we modified the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM) to include a novel logit-based Armington trade structure, to examine two approaches to modeling trade: (1) an approach that represents segmented regional markets (SRM), and (2) an approach that represents integrated world markets (IWM). Our results demonstrate that assuming IWM, i.e., homogeneous product modeling and neglecting economic geography, could lead to lower cropland use (i.e., by 115 million hectares globally) and terrestrial carbon fluxes (i.e., by 25%) by the end of the century under the default GCAM scenario, compared with the logit-based Armington SRM structure. The results are highly heterogeneous across regions, with more pronounced regional trade responses driven by global market integration. Our study highlights the critical role that assumptions about future trade paradigms play in global economic and integrated assessment modeling. The results imply that closer harmonization of trade modeling approaches and trade parameter values could increase the convergence of regional results among models in model intercomparison studies.
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Affiliation(s)
- Xin Zhao
- Joint Global Change Research Institute, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, 5825 University Research Ct, College Park, MD 20740, United States
| | - Marshall A. Wise
- Joint Global Change Research Institute, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, 5825 University Research Ct, College Park, MD 20740, United States
| | - Stephanie T. Waldhoff
- Joint Global Change Research Institute, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, 5825 University Research Ct, College Park, MD 20740, United States
| | - G. Page Kyle
- Joint Global Change Research Institute, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, 5825 University Research Ct, College Park, MD 20740, United States
| | - Jonathan E. Huster
- Joint Global Change Research Institute, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, 5825 University Research Ct, College Park, MD 20740, United States
- Department of Energy Resources Engineering, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, United States
| | - Christopher W. Ramig
- U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, 1200 Pennsylvania Ave., NW, Washington, DC 20460, United States
| | - Lauren E. Rafelski
- U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, 1200 Pennsylvania Ave., NW, Washington, DC 20460, United States
| | - Pralit L. Patel
- Joint Global Change Research Institute, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, 5825 University Research Ct, College Park, MD 20740, United States
| | - Katherine V. Calvin
- Joint Global Change Research Institute, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, 5825 University Research Ct, College Park, MD 20740, United States
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Sampedro J, Kyle P, Ramig CW, Tanner D, Huster JE, Wise MA. Dynamic Linking of Upstream Energy and Freight Demands for Bio and Fossil Energy Pathways in the Global Change Analysis Model. Appl Energy 2021; 302:1-10. [PMID: 36072824 PMCID: PMC9447409 DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2021.117580] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 05/25/2023]
Abstract
Comprehensive study of the environmental impacts associated with demand for an energy resource or carrier in any one sector requires a full consideration of the direct and indirect impacts on the rest of the regional and global energy system. Biofuels are especially complex since they have feedbacks to both the energy system and to regional and global crop markets. In this study, we present a strategy for dynamically including the upstream energy and transportation links to the Global Change Analysis Model. We incorporate the following inter-sectoral linkages: energy inputs to crop production, energy inputs to fossil resource production, and freight transport requirements of energy and agricultural commodities. We assess the implications of explicitly including these links by measuring the global impacts of increased corn ethanol demand in the United States with and without these links included. Although the net global impact of the upstream links on energy and emissions are relatively modest in the scenarios analyzed, the inclusion of these links illustrates interesting trade-offs in energy and transportation demand among fossil fuel and agriculture sectors. We find that the increment in agricultural energy driven by the additional biofuel production associated with the corn ethanol shock is higher than the decrease of energy associated with the displaced fossil fuel consumption. However, this effect is compensated by the reduction in freight transportation requirements of energy. These sectoral interactions suggest that this level of modeling detail could be important in evaluating future analytical questions.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jon Sampedro
- Joint Global Change Research Institute, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, College Park, USA
| | - Page Kyle
- Joint Global Change Research Institute, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, College Park, USA
| | - Christopher W. Ramig
- Environmental Protection Agency, 1200 Pennsylvania Ave., NW, Washington, DC 20460, United States
| | - Daniel Tanner
- Environmental Protection Agency, 1200 Pennsylvania Ave., NW, Washington, DC 20460, United States
| | - Jonathan E. Huster
- Joint Global Change Research Institute, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, College Park, USA
| | - Marshall A. Wise
- Environmental Protection Agency, 1200 Pennsylvania Ave., NW, Washington, DC 20460, United States
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Alexander P, Prestele R, Verburg PH, Arneth A, Baranzelli C, Batista E Silva F, Brown C, Butler A, Calvin K, Dendoncker N, Doelman JC, Dunford R, Engström K, Eitelberg D, Fujimori S, Harrison PA, Hasegawa T, Havlik P, Holzhauer S, Humpenöder F, Jacobs-Crisioni C, Jain AK, Krisztin T, Kyle P, Lavalle C, Lenton T, Liu J, Meiyappan P, Popp A, Powell T, Sands RD, Schaldach R, Stehfest E, Steinbuks J, Tabeau A, van Meijl H, Wise MA, Rounsevell MDA. Assessing uncertainties in land cover projections. Glob Chang Biol 2017; 23:767-781. [PMID: 27474896 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.13447] [Citation(s) in RCA: 16] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/06/2016] [Revised: 07/21/2016] [Accepted: 07/22/2016] [Indexed: 05/27/2023]
Abstract
Understanding uncertainties in land cover projections is critical to investigating land-based climate mitigation policies, assessing the potential of climate adaptation strategies and quantifying the impacts of land cover change on the climate system. Here, we identify and quantify uncertainties in global and European land cover projections over a diverse range of model types and scenarios, extending the analysis beyond the agro-economic models included in previous comparisons. The results from 75 simulations over 18 models are analysed and show a large range in land cover area projections, with the highest variability occurring in future cropland areas. We demonstrate systematic differences in land cover areas associated with the characteristics of the modelling approach, which is at least as great as the differences attributed to the scenario variations. The results lead us to conclude that a higher degree of uncertainty exists in land use projections than currently included in climate or earth system projections. To account for land use uncertainty, it is recommended to use a diverse set of models and approaches when assessing the potential impacts of land cover change on future climate. Additionally, further work is needed to better understand the assumptions driving land use model results and reveal the causes of uncertainty in more depth, to help reduce model uncertainty and improve the projections of land cover.
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Affiliation(s)
- Peter Alexander
- School of GeoSciences, University of Edinburgh, Drummond Street, Edinburgh, EH8 9XP, UK
- Land Economy and Environment Research Group, SRUC, West Mains Road, Edinburgh, EH9 3JG, UK
| | - Reinhard Prestele
- Environmental Geography Group, Department of Earth Sciences, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, De Boelelaan 1087, Amsterdam, HV 1081, The Netherlands
| | - Peter H Verburg
- Environmental Geography Group, Department of Earth Sciences, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, De Boelelaan 1087, Amsterdam, HV 1081, The Netherlands
| | - Almut Arneth
- Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research, Atmospheric Environmental Research (IMK-IFU), Kreuzeckbahnstr. 19, Garmisch-Partenkirchen, 82467, Germany
| | - Claudia Baranzelli
- Directorate B Innovation and Growth, Territorial Development Unit, European Commission, Via Fermi 2749, Varese, 21027, Italy
| | - Filipe Batista E Silva
- Directorate B Innovation and Growth, Territorial Development Unit, European Commission, Via Fermi 2749, Varese, 21027, Italy
| | - Calum Brown
- School of GeoSciences, University of Edinburgh, Drummond Street, Edinburgh, EH8 9XP, UK
| | - Adam Butler
- Biomathematics & Statistics Scotland, JCMB, King's Buildings, Edinburgh, EH9 3JZ, UK
| | - Katherine Calvin
- Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Joint Global Change Research Institute, College Park, MD, 20740, USA
| | - Nicolas Dendoncker
- Department of Geography, Namur Research Group on Sustainable Development, University of Namur, Rue de Bruxelles 61, Namur, B-5000, Belgium
| | - Jonathan C Doelman
- Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL), P.O. Box 303, Bilthoven, 3720 AH, The Netherlands
| | - Robert Dunford
- Environmental Change Institute, University of Oxford, South Parks Road, Oxford, OX1 3QY, UK
- Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, Lancaster Environment Centre, Library Avenue, Bailrigg, Lancaster, LA1 4AP, UK
| | - Kerstin Engström
- Department of Geography and Ecosystem Science, Lund University, Paradisgatan 2, Lund, Sweden
| | - David Eitelberg
- Environmental Geography Group, Department of Earth Sciences, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, De Boelelaan 1087, Amsterdam, HV 1081, The Netherlands
| | - Shinichiro Fujimori
- Center for Social and Environmental Systems Research, National Institute for Environmental Studies, 16-2 Onogawa, Tsukuba, 305-8506, Japan
| | - Paula A Harrison
- Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, Lancaster Environment Centre, Library Avenue, Bailrigg, Lancaster, LA1 4AP, UK
| | - Tomoko Hasegawa
- Center for Social and Environmental Systems Research, National Institute for Environmental Studies, 16-2 Onogawa, Tsukuba, 305-8506, Japan
| | - Petr Havlik
- Ecosystem Services and Management Program, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, A-2361, Austria
| | - Sascha Holzhauer
- School of GeoSciences, University of Edinburgh, Drummond Street, Edinburgh, EH8 9XP, UK
| | - Florian Humpenöder
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), PO Box 60 12 03, Potsdam, 14412, Germany
| | - Chris Jacobs-Crisioni
- Directorate B Innovation and Growth, Territorial Development Unit, European Commission, Via Fermi 2749, Varese, 21027, Italy
| | - Atul K Jain
- Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Illinois, Urbana, IL, 61801, USA
| | - Tamás Krisztin
- Ecosystem Services and Management Program, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, A-2361, Austria
| | - Page Kyle
- Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Joint Global Change Research Institute, College Park, MD, 20740, USA
| | - Carlo Lavalle
- Directorate B Innovation and Growth, Territorial Development Unit, European Commission, Via Fermi 2749, Varese, 21027, Italy
| | - Tim Lenton
- Earth System Science, College of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of Exeter, Laver Building (Level 7), North Parks Road, Exeter, EX4 4QE, UK
| | - Jiayi Liu
- Biomathematics & Statistics Scotland, JCMB, King's Buildings, Edinburgh, EH9 3JZ, UK
| | - Prasanth Meiyappan
- Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Illinois, Urbana, IL, 61801, USA
| | - Alexander Popp
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), PO Box 60 12 03, Potsdam, 14412, Germany
| | - Tom Powell
- Earth System Science, College of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of Exeter, Laver Building (Level 7), North Parks Road, Exeter, EX4 4QE, UK
| | - Ronald D Sands
- Resource and Rural Economics Division, US Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service, Washington, DC, 20250, USA
| | - Rüdiger Schaldach
- Center for Environmental Systems Research, University of Kassel, Wilhelmshöher Allee 47, Kassel, D-34109, Germany
| | - Elke Stehfest
- Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL), P.O. Box 303, Bilthoven, 3720 AH, The Netherlands
| | | | - Andrzej Tabeau
- LEI, Wageningen University and Research Centre, P.O. Box 29703, The Hague, 2502 LS, The Netherlands
| | - Hans van Meijl
- LEI, Wageningen University and Research Centre, P.O. Box 29703, The Hague, 2502 LS, The Netherlands
| | - Marshall A Wise
- Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Joint Global Change Research Institute, College Park, MD, 20740, USA
| | - Mark D A Rounsevell
- School of GeoSciences, University of Edinburgh, Drummond Street, Edinburgh, EH8 9XP, UK
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