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Rodríguez A, van Grinsven HJM, van Loon MP, Doelman JC, Beusen AHW, Lassaletta L. Costs and benefits of synthetic nitrogen for global cereal production in 2015 and in 2050 under contrasting scenarios. Sci Total Environ 2024; 912:169357. [PMID: 38128654 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.169357] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/31/2023] [Revised: 11/01/2023] [Accepted: 12/11/2023] [Indexed: 12/23/2023]
Abstract
Cereals are the most important global staple crop and use more than half of global cropland and synthetic nitrogen (N) fertilizer. While this synthetic N may feed half of the current global population, it has led to a massive increase in reactive N loss to the environment, causing a suite of impacts, offsetting the benefits of N fertilizers for food security and agricultural economy. To address these complex issues, the NBCalCer model was developed to quantify the global effects of N input on crop yields, N budgets and environmental impacts and to assess the associated social benefits and costs. Three Shared Socioeconomic Pathway scenarios (SSPs) were considered with decreasing N agri-environmental ambitions, through contrasting climate and N policy ambitions: sustainability (SSP1H), middle-of-the-road (SSP2M) and fossil-fueled development (SSP5L). In the base year the contribution of synthetic N fertilizer to global cereal production was 44 %. Global modelled grain yield was projected to increase under all scenarios while the use of synthetic N fertilizer decreases under all scenarios except SSP5L. The total N surplus was projected to be reduced up to 20 % under SSP1H but to increase under SSP5L. The Benefit-Cost-Ratio (BCR) was calculated as the ratio between the market benefit of increased grain production by synthetic N and the summed cost of fertilizer purchase and the external cost of the N losses. In base year the BCR was well above one in all regions, but in 2050 under SSP1H and SSP5L decreased to below one in most regions. Given the concerns about food security, environmental quality and its interaction with biodiversity loss, human health and climate change, the new paradigm for global cereal production is producing sufficient food with minimum N pollution. Our results indicate that achieving this goal would require a massive change in global volume and distribution of synthetic N.
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Affiliation(s)
- Alfredo Rodríguez
- Department of Economic Analysis and Finances, Universidad de Castilla-La Mancha, Toledo, Spain.
| | | | - Marloes P van Loon
- Plant Production Systems, Wageningen University & Research, 6700 AK Wageningen, the Netherlands
| | - Jonathan C Doelman
- PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, The Hague, the Netherlands
| | - Arthur H W Beusen
- PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, The Hague, the Netherlands
| | - Luis Lassaletta
- CEIGRAM-Agricultural Production, ETSIAAB, Universidad Politécnica de Madrid, 28040 Madrid, Spain
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Doelman JC, Stehfest E, van Vuuren DP, Tabeau A, Hof AF, Braakhekke MC, Gernaat DEHJ, van den Berg M, van Zeist WJ, Daioglou V, van Meijl H, Lucas PL. Afforestation for climate change mitigation: Potentials, risks and trade-offs. Glob Chang Biol 2020; 26:1576-1591. [PMID: 31655005 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.14887] [Citation(s) in RCA: 45] [Impact Index Per Article: 11.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/22/2018] [Accepted: 10/01/2019] [Indexed: 05/15/2023]
Abstract
Afforestation is considered a cost-effective and readily available climate change mitigation option. In recent studies afforestation is presented as a major solution to limit climate change. However, estimates of afforestation potential vary widely. Moreover, the risks in global mitigation policy and the negative trade-offs with food security are often not considered. Here we present a new approach to assess the economic potential of afforestation with the IMAGE 3.0 integrated assessment model framework. In addition, we discuss the role of afforestation in mitigation pathways and the effects of afforestation on the food system under increasingly ambitious climate targets. We show that afforestation has a mitigation potential of 4.9 GtCO2 /year at 200 US$/tCO2 in 2050 leading to large-scale application in an SSP2 scenario aiming for 2°C (410 GtCO2 cumulative up to 2100). Afforestation reduces the overall costs of mitigation policy. However, it may lead to lower mitigation ambition and lock-in situations in other sectors. Moreover, it bears risks to implementation and permanence as the negative emissions are increasingly located in regions with high investment risks and weak governance, for example in Sub-Saharan Africa. Afforestation also requires large amounts of land (up to 1,100 Mha) leading to large reductions in agricultural land. The increased competition for land could lead to higher food prices and an increased population at risk of hunger. Our results confirm that afforestation has substantial potential for mitigation. At the same time, we highlight that major risks and trade-offs are involved. Pathways aiming to limit climate change to 2°C or even 1.5°C need to minimize these risks and trade-offs in order to achieve mitigation sustainably.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jonathan C Doelman
- PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, The Hague, The Netherlands
- Copernicus Institute for Sustainable Development, Utrecht University, Utrecht, The Netherlands
| | - Elke Stehfest
- PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, The Hague, The Netherlands
| | - Detlef P van Vuuren
- PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, The Hague, The Netherlands
- Copernicus Institute for Sustainable Development, Utrecht University, Utrecht, The Netherlands
| | - Andrzej Tabeau
- Wageningen Economic Research, Wageningen University & Research, The Hague, The Netherlands
| | - Andries F Hof
- PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, The Hague, The Netherlands
- Copernicus Institute for Sustainable Development, Utrecht University, Utrecht, The Netherlands
| | - Maarten C Braakhekke
- Wageningen Environmental Research, Wageningen University & Research, The Hague, The Netherlands
| | - David E H J Gernaat
- PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, The Hague, The Netherlands
- Copernicus Institute for Sustainable Development, Utrecht University, Utrecht, The Netherlands
| | | | | | - Vassilis Daioglou
- PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, The Hague, The Netherlands
- Copernicus Institute for Sustainable Development, Utrecht University, Utrecht, The Netherlands
| | - Hans van Meijl
- Wageningen Economic Research, Wageningen University & Research, The Hague, The Netherlands
| | - Paul L Lucas
- PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, The Hague, The Netherlands
- Copernicus Institute for Sustainable Development, Utrecht University, Utrecht, The Netherlands
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Schipper AM, Hilbers JP, Meijer JR, Antão LH, Benítez‐López A, de Jonge MMJ, Leemans LH, Scheper E, Alkemade R, Doelman JC, Mylius S, Stehfest E, van Vuuren DP, van Zeist W, Huijbregts MAJ. Projecting terrestrial biodiversity intactness with GLOBIO 4. Glob Chang Biol 2020; 26:760-771. [PMID: 31680366 PMCID: PMC7028079 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.14848] [Citation(s) in RCA: 31] [Impact Index Per Article: 7.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/01/2018] [Accepted: 08/09/2019] [Indexed: 05/06/2023]
Abstract
Scenario-based biodiversity modelling is a powerful approach to evaluate how possible future socio-economic developments may affect biodiversity. Here, we evaluated the changes in terrestrial biodiversity intactness, expressed by the mean species abundance (MSA) metric, resulting from three of the shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs) combined with different levels of climate change (according to representative concentration pathways [RCPs]): a future oriented towards sustainability (SSP1xRCP2.6), a future determined by a politically divided world (SSP3xRCP6.0) and a future with continued global dependency on fossil fuels (SSP5xRCP8.5). To this end, we first updated the GLOBIO model, which now runs at a spatial resolution of 10 arc-seconds (~300 m), contains new modules for downscaling land use and for quantifying impacts of hunting in the tropics, and updated modules to quantify impacts of climate change, land use, habitat fragmentation and nitrogen pollution. We then used the updated model to project terrestrial biodiversity intactness from 2015 to 2050 as a function of land use and climate changes corresponding with the selected scenarios. We estimated a global area-weighted mean MSA of 0.56 for 2015. Biodiversity intactness declined in all three scenarios, yet the decline was smaller in the sustainability scenario (-0.02) than the regional rivalry and fossil-fuelled development scenarios (-0.06 and -0.05 respectively). We further found considerable variation in projected biodiversity change among different world regions, with large future losses particularly for sub-Saharan Africa. In some scenario-region combinations, we projected future biodiversity recovery due to reduced demands for agricultural land, yet this recovery was counteracted by increased impacts of other pressures (notably climate change and road disturbance). Effective measures to halt or reverse the decline of terrestrial biodiversity should not only reduce land demand (e.g. by increasing agricultural productivity and dietary changes) but also focus on reducing or mitigating the impacts of other pressures.
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Affiliation(s)
- Aafke M. Schipper
- PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment AgencyThe HagueThe Netherlands
- Department of Environmental ScienceInstitute for Water and Wetland ResearchRadboud UniversityNijmegenThe Netherlands
| | - Jelle P. Hilbers
- PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment AgencyThe HagueThe Netherlands
| | - Johan R. Meijer
- PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment AgencyThe HagueThe Netherlands
| | - Laura H. Antão
- Centre for Biological DiversityUniversity of St AndrewsSt AndrewsUK
- Research Centre for Ecological ChangeOrganismal and Evolutionary Biology Research ProgrammeUniversity of HelsinkiHelsinkiFinland
| | - Ana Benítez‐López
- Department of Environmental ScienceInstitute for Water and Wetland ResearchRadboud UniversityNijmegenThe Netherlands
- Integrative Ecology GroupEstación Biológica de Doñana, Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas (EBD‐CSIC)SevillaSpain
| | - Melinda M. J. de Jonge
- Department of Environmental ScienceInstitute for Water and Wetland ResearchRadboud UniversityNijmegenThe Netherlands
| | - Luuk H. Leemans
- Department of Environmental ScienceInstitute for Water and Wetland ResearchRadboud UniversityNijmegenThe Netherlands
| | | | - Rob Alkemade
- PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment AgencyThe HagueThe Netherlands
- Environmental Systems Analyses GroupWageningen UniversityWageningenThe Netherlands
| | | | - Sido Mylius
- PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment AgencyThe HagueThe Netherlands
| | - Elke Stehfest
- PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment AgencyThe HagueThe Netherlands
| | - Detlef P. van Vuuren
- PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment AgencyThe HagueThe Netherlands
- Faculty of GeosciencesUtrecht UniversityUtrechtThe Netherlands
| | | | - Mark A. J. Huijbregts
- Department of Environmental ScienceInstitute for Water and Wetland ResearchRadboud UniversityNijmegenThe Netherlands
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Doelman JC, Stehfest E, Tabeau A, van Meijl H. Making the Paris agreement climate targets consistent with food security objectives. Global Food Security 2019. [DOI: 10.1016/j.gfs.2019.04.003] [Citation(s) in RCA: 13] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 10/26/2022]
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Lassaletta L, Estellés F, Beusen AHW, Bouwman L, Calvet S, van Grinsven HJM, Doelman JC, Stehfest E, Uwizeye A, Westhoek H. Future global pig production systems according to the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways. Sci Total Environ 2019; 665:739-751. [PMID: 30790747 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.02.079] [Citation(s) in RCA: 35] [Impact Index Per Article: 7.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/23/2018] [Revised: 02/04/2019] [Accepted: 02/05/2019] [Indexed: 05/15/2023]
Abstract
Global pork production has increased fourfold over the last 50 years and is expected to continue growing during the next three decades. This may have considerable implications for feed use, land requirements, and nitrogen emissions. To analyze the development of the pig production sector at the scale of world regions, we developed the IMAGE-Pig model to describe changes in feed demand, feed conversion ratios (FCRs), nitrogen use efficiency (NUE) and nitrogen excretion for backyard, intermediate and intensive systems during the past few decades as a basis to explore future scenarios. For each region and production system, total production, productive characteristics and dietary compositions were defined for the 1970-2005 period. The results show that due to the growing pork production total feed demand has increased by a factor of two (from 229 to 471Tg DM). This is despite the improvement of FCRs during the 1970-2005 period, which has reduced the feed use per kg of product. The increase of nitrogen use efficiency was slower than the improvement of FCRs due to increasing protein content in the feed rations. As a result, total N excretion increased by more than a factor of two in the 1970-2005 period (from 4.6 to 11.1 Tg N/year). For the period up to 2050, the Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs) provide information on levels of human consumption, technical development and environmental awareness. The sustainability of pig production systems for the coming decades will be based not only on the expected efficiency improvements at the level of animal breeds, but also on four additional pillars: (i) use of alternative feed sources not competing with human food, (ii) reduction of the crude protein content in rations, (iii) the proper use of slurries as fertilizers through coupling of crop and livestock production and (iv) moderation of the human pork consumption.
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Affiliation(s)
- Luis Lassaletta
- PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, 2500 GH The Hague, the Netherlands; Department of Earth Sciences-Geochemistry, Faculty of Geosciences, Utrecht University, PO Box 80021, 3508 TA Utrecht, the Netherlands; CEIGRAM/Department of Agricultural Production, Universidad Politécnica de Madrid, Madrid 28040, Spain.
| | - Fernando Estellés
- Institute of Animal Science and Technology, Universitat Politecnica de Valencia, Camino de Vera S/n, 46022 Valencia, Spain
| | - Arthur H W Beusen
- PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, 2500 GH The Hague, the Netherlands; Department of Earth Sciences-Geochemistry, Faculty of Geosciences, Utrecht University, PO Box 80021, 3508 TA Utrecht, the Netherlands
| | - Lex Bouwman
- PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, 2500 GH The Hague, the Netherlands; Department of Earth Sciences-Geochemistry, Faculty of Geosciences, Utrecht University, PO Box 80021, 3508 TA Utrecht, the Netherlands; Key Laboratory of Marine Chemistry Theory and Technology, Ministry of Education, Ocean University of China, Qingdao 266100, PR China.
| | - Salvador Calvet
- Institute of Animal Science and Technology, Universitat Politecnica de Valencia, Camino de Vera S/n, 46022 Valencia, Spain
| | | | - Jonathan C Doelman
- PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, 2500 GH The Hague, the Netherlands
| | - Elke Stehfest
- PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, 2500 GH The Hague, the Netherlands
| | - Aimable Uwizeye
- Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Animal Production and Health Division, Viale delle Terme di Caracalla, Rome 00153, Italy; Animal Production Systems Group, Wageningen University & Research, PO Box 338, 6700 AH Wageningen, the Netherlands; Teagasc - Crops, Environment and Land Use Programme, Johnstown Castle, Wexford, Ireland
| | - Henk Westhoek
- PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, 2500 GH The Hague, the Netherlands
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6
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Harper AB, Powell T, Cox PM, House J, Huntingford C, Lenton TM, Sitch S, Burke E, Chadburn SE, Collins WJ, Comyn-Platt E, Daioglou V, Doelman JC, Hayman G, Robertson E, van Vuuren D, Wiltshire A, Webber CP, Bastos A, Boysen L, Ciais P, Devaraju N, Jain AK, Krause A, Poulter B, Shu S. Land-use emissions play a critical role in land-based mitigation for Paris climate targets. Nat Commun 2018; 9:2938. [PMID: 30087330 PMCID: PMC6081380 DOI: 10.1038/s41467-018-05340-z] [Citation(s) in RCA: 50] [Impact Index Per Article: 8.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/04/2017] [Accepted: 06/25/2018] [Indexed: 12/02/2022] Open
Abstract
Scenarios that limit global warming to below 2 °C by 2100 assume significant land-use change to support large-scale carbon dioxide (CO2) removal from the atmosphere by afforestation/reforestation, avoided deforestation, and Biomass Energy with Carbon Capture and Storage (BECCS). The more ambitious mitigation scenarios require even greater land area for mitigation and/or earlier adoption of CO2 removal strategies. Here we show that additional land-use change to meet a 1.5 °C climate change target could result in net losses of carbon from the land. The effectiveness of BECCS strongly depends on several assumptions related to the choice of biomass, the fate of initial above ground biomass, and the fossil-fuel emissions offset in the energy system. Depending on these factors, carbon removed from the atmosphere through BECCS could easily be offset by losses due to land-use change. If BECCS involves replacing high-carbon content ecosystems with crops, then forest-based mitigation could be more efficient for atmospheric CO2 removal than BECCS. Land-based mitigation for meeting the Paris climate target must consider the carbon cycle impacts of land-use change. Here the authors show that when bioenergy crops replace high carbon content ecosystems, forest-based mitigation could be more effective for CO2 removal than bioenergy crops with carbon capture and storage.
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Affiliation(s)
- Anna B Harper
- College of Engineering, Mathematics, and Physical Sciences, University of Exeter, Exeter, EX4 4QF, UK.
| | - Tom Powell
- College of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of Exeter, Exeter, EX4 4QF, UK
| | - Peter M Cox
- College of Engineering, Mathematics, and Physical Sciences, University of Exeter, Exeter, EX4 4QF, UK
| | - Joanna House
- School of Geographical Sciences, University of Bristol, Bristol, BS8 1SS, UK
| | | | - Timothy M Lenton
- College of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of Exeter, Exeter, EX4 4QF, UK
| | - Stephen Sitch
- College of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of Exeter, Exeter, EX4 4QF, UK
| | - Eleanor Burke
- Met Office Hadley Centre, FitzRoy Road, Exeter, EX1 3PB, UK
| | - Sarah E Chadburn
- College of Engineering, Mathematics, and Physical Sciences, University of Exeter, Exeter, EX4 4QF, UK.,University of Leeds, Leeds, LS2 9JT, UK
| | - William J Collins
- Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, RG6 6BB, UK
| | | | - Vassilis Daioglou
- Department of Climate, Air and Energy, Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL), PO Box 30314, 2500 GH, The Hague, Netherlands.,Copernicus Institute of Sustainable Development, Utrecht University, Heidelberglaan 2, 3584 CS, Utrecht, The Netherlands
| | - Jonathan C Doelman
- Department of Climate, Air and Energy, Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL), PO Box 30314, 2500 GH, The Hague, Netherlands
| | - Garry Hayman
- Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Wallingford, OX10 8BB, UK
| | - Eddy Robertson
- Met Office Hadley Centre, FitzRoy Road, Exeter, EX1 3PB, UK
| | - Detlef van Vuuren
- Department of Climate, Air and Energy, Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL), PO Box 30314, 2500 GH, The Hague, Netherlands.,Copernicus Institute of Sustainable Development, Utrecht University, Heidelberglaan 2, 3584 CS, Utrecht, The Netherlands
| | - Andy Wiltshire
- Met Office Hadley Centre, FitzRoy Road, Exeter, EX1 3PB, UK
| | | | - Ana Bastos
- Department of Geography, Ludwig Maximilians University Munich, Luisenstr. 37, 80333, Munich, Germany.,Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, LSCE/IPSL, CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, Université Paris-Saclay, 91191, Gif-sur-Yvette, France
| | - Lena Boysen
- The Land in the Earth System, Max-Planck Institute for Meteorology, Bundesstrasse 53, 20146, Hamburg, Germany
| | - Philippe Ciais
- Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, LSCE/IPSL, CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, Université Paris-Saclay, 91191, Gif-sur-Yvette, France
| | - Narayanappa Devaraju
- Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, LSCE/IPSL, CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, Université Paris-Saclay, 91191, Gif-sur-Yvette, France
| | - Atul K Jain
- Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Illinois, Urbana, IL, 61801, USA
| | - Andreas Krause
- Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research-Atmospheric Environmental Research (IMK-IFU), Kreuzeckbahnstr. 19, Garmisch-Partenkirchen, 82467, Germany
| | - Ben Poulter
- NASA GSFC, Biospheric Sciences Lab., Greenbelt, MD, 20771, USA
| | - Shijie Shu
- Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Illinois, Urbana, IL, 61801, USA
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7
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Krause A, Pugh TAM, Bayer AD, Li W, Leung F, Bondeau A, Doelman JC, Humpenöder F, Anthoni P, Bodirsky BL, Ciais P, Müller C, Murray-Tortarolo G, Olin S, Popp A, Sitch S, Stehfest E, Arneth A. Large uncertainty in carbon uptake potential of land-based climate-change mitigation efforts. Glob Chang Biol 2018; 24:3025-3038. [PMID: 29569788 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.14144] [Citation(s) in RCA: 8] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/07/2017] [Accepted: 01/23/2018] [Indexed: 06/08/2023]
Abstract
Most climate mitigation scenarios involve negative emissions, especially those that aim to limit global temperature increase to 2°C or less. However, the carbon uptake potential in land-based climate change mitigation efforts is highly uncertain. Here, we address this uncertainty by using two land-based mitigation scenarios from two land-use models (IMAGE and MAgPIE) as input to four dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs; LPJ-GUESS, ORCHIDEE, JULES, LPJmL). Each of the four combinations of land-use models and mitigation scenarios aimed for a cumulative carbon uptake of ~130 GtC by the end of the century, achieved either via the cultivation of bioenergy crops combined with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) or avoided deforestation and afforestation (ADAFF). Results suggest large uncertainty in simulated future land demand and carbon uptake rates, depending on the assumptions related to land use and land management in the models. Total cumulative carbon uptake in the DGVMs is highly variable across mitigation scenarios, ranging between 19 and 130 GtC by year 2099. Only one out of the 16 combinations of mitigation scenarios and DGVMs achieves an equivalent or higher carbon uptake than achieved in the land-use models. The large differences in carbon uptake between the DGVMs and their discrepancy against the carbon uptake in IMAGE and MAgPIE are mainly due to different model assumptions regarding bioenergy crop yields and due to the simulation of soil carbon response to land-use change. Differences between land-use models and DGVMs regarding forest biomass and the rate of forest regrowth also have an impact, albeit smaller, on the results. Given the low confidence in simulated carbon uptake for a given land-based mitigation scenario, and that negative emissions simulated by the DGVMs are typically lower than assumed in scenarios consistent with the 2°C target, relying on negative emissions to mitigate climate change is a highly uncertain strategy.
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Affiliation(s)
- Andreas Krause
- Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research - Atmospheric Environmental Research (IMK-IFU), Garmisch-Partenkirchen, Germany
| | - Thomas A M Pugh
- Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research - Atmospheric Environmental Research (IMK-IFU), Garmisch-Partenkirchen, Germany
- School of Geography, Earth & Environmental Sciences and Birmingham Institute of Forest Research, University of Birmingham, Birmingham, UK
| | - Anita D Bayer
- Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research - Atmospheric Environmental Research (IMK-IFU), Garmisch-Partenkirchen, Germany
| | - Wei Li
- Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et l'Environnement, CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, Gif-sur-Yvette, France
| | - Felix Leung
- College of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of Exeter, Exeter, UK
| | - Alberte Bondeau
- Institut Méditerranéen de Biodiversité et d'Ecologie marine et continentale (Mediterranean Institute for Biodiversity and Ecology IMBE), Aix-en-Provence, France
| | - Jonathan C Doelman
- Department of Climate, Air and Energy, Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL), The Hague, The Netherlands
| | | | - Peter Anthoni
- Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research - Atmospheric Environmental Research (IMK-IFU), Garmisch-Partenkirchen, Germany
| | | | - Philippe Ciais
- Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et l'Environnement, CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, Gif-sur-Yvette, France
| | - Christoph Müller
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Potsdam, Germany
| | - Guillermo Murray-Tortarolo
- College of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of Exeter, Exeter, UK
- Catedra CONACyT comisionado al Instituto de Investigaciones en Ecosistemas y Sustentabilidad, Universidad Nacional Autonoma de Mexico, Mexico City, Mexico
| | - Stefan Olin
- Department of Physical Geography and Ecosystem Science, Lund University, Lund, Sweden
| | - Alexander Popp
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Potsdam, Germany
| | - Stephen Sitch
- College of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of Exeter, Exeter, UK
| | - Elke Stehfest
- Department of Climate, Air and Energy, Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL), The Hague, The Netherlands
| | - Almut Arneth
- Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research - Atmospheric Environmental Research (IMK-IFU), Garmisch-Partenkirchen, Germany
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8
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Hirsch AL, Guillod BP, Seneviratne SI, Beyerle U, Boysen LR, Brovkin V, Davin EL, Doelman JC, Kim H, Mitchell DM, Nitta T, Shiogama H, Sparrow S, Stehfest E, van Vuuren DP, Wilson S. Biogeophysical Impacts of Land-Use Change on Climate Extremes in Low-Emission Scenarios: Results From HAPPI-Land. Earths Future 2018; 6:396-409. [PMID: 29938210 PMCID: PMC5993232 DOI: 10.1002/2017ef000744] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/01/2017] [Revised: 01/28/2018] [Accepted: 02/07/2018] [Indexed: 05/31/2023]
Abstract
The impacts of land use have been shown to have considerable influence on regional climate. With the recent international commitment to limit global warming to well below 2°C, emission reductions need to be ambitious and could involve major land-use change (LUC). Land-based mitigation efforts to curb emissions growth include increasing terrestrial carbon sequestration through reforestation, or the adoption of bioenergy crops. These activities influence local climate through biogeophysical feedbacks, however, it is uncertain how important they are for a 1.5° climate target. This was the motivation for HAPPI-Land: the half a degree additional warming, prognosis, and projected impacts-land-use scenario experiment. Using four Earth system models, we present the first multimodel results from HAPPI-Land and demonstrate the critical role of land use for understanding the characteristics of regional climate extremes in low-emission scenarios. In particular, our results show that changes in temperature extremes due to LUC are comparable in magnitude to changes arising from half a degree of global warming. We also demonstrate that LUC contributes to more than 20% of the change in temperature extremes for large land areas concentrated over the Northern Hemisphere. However, we also identify sources of uncertainty that influence the multimodel consensus of our results including how LUC is implemented and the corresponding biogeophysical feedbacks that perturb climate. Therefore, our results highlight the urgent need to resolve the challenges in implementing LUC across models to quantify the impacts and consider how LUC contributes to regional changes in extremes associated with sustainable development pathways.
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Affiliation(s)
- Annette L. Hirsch
- Institute for Atmospheric and Climate ScienceEidgenössische Technische Hochschule (ETH) ZurichZurichSwitzerland
| | - Benoit P. Guillod
- Institute for Atmospheric and Climate ScienceEidgenössische Technische Hochschule (ETH) ZurichZurichSwitzerland
- Institute for Environmental DecisionsEidgenössische Technische Hochschule (ETH) ZurichZurichSwitzerland
| | - Sonia I. Seneviratne
- Institute for Atmospheric and Climate ScienceEidgenössische Technische Hochschule (ETH) ZurichZurichSwitzerland
| | - Urs Beyerle
- Institute for Atmospheric and Climate ScienceEidgenössische Technische Hochschule (ETH) ZurichZurichSwitzerland
| | - Lena R. Boysen
- Land in the Earth System, Max Planck Institute for MeteorologyHamburgGermany
| | - Victor Brovkin
- Land in the Earth System, Max Planck Institute for MeteorologyHamburgGermany
| | - Edouard L. Davin
- Institute for Atmospheric and Climate ScienceEidgenössische Technische Hochschule (ETH) ZurichZurichSwitzerland
| | | | - Hyungjun Kim
- Institute of Industrial ScienceThe University of TokyoTokyoJapan
| | | | - Tomoko Nitta
- Institute of Industrial ScienceThe University of TokyoTokyoJapan
| | - Hideo Shiogama
- Center for Global Environmental ResearchNational Institute for Environmental StudiesTsukubaJapan
| | - Sarah Sparrow
- Oxford e‐Research Centre (OeRC)University of OxfordOxfordUK
| | - Elke Stehfest
- PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment AgencyDen HaagThe Netherlands
| | - Detlef P. van Vuuren
- PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment AgencyDen HaagThe Netherlands
- Copernicus Institute for Sustainable DevelopmentUtrecht UniversityUtrechtThe Netherlands
| | - Simon Wilson
- Met Office Hadley CentreExeterUK
- Department of Meteorology, NCAS‐CMSUniversity of ReadingReadingUK
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9
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Alexander P, Prestele R, Verburg PH, Arneth A, Baranzelli C, Batista E Silva F, Brown C, Butler A, Calvin K, Dendoncker N, Doelman JC, Dunford R, Engström K, Eitelberg D, Fujimori S, Harrison PA, Hasegawa T, Havlik P, Holzhauer S, Humpenöder F, Jacobs-Crisioni C, Jain AK, Krisztin T, Kyle P, Lavalle C, Lenton T, Liu J, Meiyappan P, Popp A, Powell T, Sands RD, Schaldach R, Stehfest E, Steinbuks J, Tabeau A, van Meijl H, Wise MA, Rounsevell MDA. Assessing uncertainties in land cover projections. Glob Chang Biol 2017; 23:767-781. [PMID: 27474896 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.13447] [Citation(s) in RCA: 16] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/06/2016] [Revised: 07/21/2016] [Accepted: 07/22/2016] [Indexed: 05/27/2023]
Abstract
Understanding uncertainties in land cover projections is critical to investigating land-based climate mitigation policies, assessing the potential of climate adaptation strategies and quantifying the impacts of land cover change on the climate system. Here, we identify and quantify uncertainties in global and European land cover projections over a diverse range of model types and scenarios, extending the analysis beyond the agro-economic models included in previous comparisons. The results from 75 simulations over 18 models are analysed and show a large range in land cover area projections, with the highest variability occurring in future cropland areas. We demonstrate systematic differences in land cover areas associated with the characteristics of the modelling approach, which is at least as great as the differences attributed to the scenario variations. The results lead us to conclude that a higher degree of uncertainty exists in land use projections than currently included in climate or earth system projections. To account for land use uncertainty, it is recommended to use a diverse set of models and approaches when assessing the potential impacts of land cover change on future climate. Additionally, further work is needed to better understand the assumptions driving land use model results and reveal the causes of uncertainty in more depth, to help reduce model uncertainty and improve the projections of land cover.
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Affiliation(s)
- Peter Alexander
- School of GeoSciences, University of Edinburgh, Drummond Street, Edinburgh, EH8 9XP, UK
- Land Economy and Environment Research Group, SRUC, West Mains Road, Edinburgh, EH9 3JG, UK
| | - Reinhard Prestele
- Environmental Geography Group, Department of Earth Sciences, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, De Boelelaan 1087, Amsterdam, HV 1081, The Netherlands
| | - Peter H Verburg
- Environmental Geography Group, Department of Earth Sciences, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, De Boelelaan 1087, Amsterdam, HV 1081, The Netherlands
| | - Almut Arneth
- Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research, Atmospheric Environmental Research (IMK-IFU), Kreuzeckbahnstr. 19, Garmisch-Partenkirchen, 82467, Germany
| | - Claudia Baranzelli
- Directorate B Innovation and Growth, Territorial Development Unit, European Commission, Via Fermi 2749, Varese, 21027, Italy
| | - Filipe Batista E Silva
- Directorate B Innovation and Growth, Territorial Development Unit, European Commission, Via Fermi 2749, Varese, 21027, Italy
| | - Calum Brown
- School of GeoSciences, University of Edinburgh, Drummond Street, Edinburgh, EH8 9XP, UK
| | - Adam Butler
- Biomathematics & Statistics Scotland, JCMB, King's Buildings, Edinburgh, EH9 3JZ, UK
| | - Katherine Calvin
- Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Joint Global Change Research Institute, College Park, MD, 20740, USA
| | - Nicolas Dendoncker
- Department of Geography, Namur Research Group on Sustainable Development, University of Namur, Rue de Bruxelles 61, Namur, B-5000, Belgium
| | - Jonathan C Doelman
- Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL), P.O. Box 303, Bilthoven, 3720 AH, The Netherlands
| | - Robert Dunford
- Environmental Change Institute, University of Oxford, South Parks Road, Oxford, OX1 3QY, UK
- Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, Lancaster Environment Centre, Library Avenue, Bailrigg, Lancaster, LA1 4AP, UK
| | - Kerstin Engström
- Department of Geography and Ecosystem Science, Lund University, Paradisgatan 2, Lund, Sweden
| | - David Eitelberg
- Environmental Geography Group, Department of Earth Sciences, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, De Boelelaan 1087, Amsterdam, HV 1081, The Netherlands
| | - Shinichiro Fujimori
- Center for Social and Environmental Systems Research, National Institute for Environmental Studies, 16-2 Onogawa, Tsukuba, 305-8506, Japan
| | - Paula A Harrison
- Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, Lancaster Environment Centre, Library Avenue, Bailrigg, Lancaster, LA1 4AP, UK
| | - Tomoko Hasegawa
- Center for Social and Environmental Systems Research, National Institute for Environmental Studies, 16-2 Onogawa, Tsukuba, 305-8506, Japan
| | - Petr Havlik
- Ecosystem Services and Management Program, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, A-2361, Austria
| | - Sascha Holzhauer
- School of GeoSciences, University of Edinburgh, Drummond Street, Edinburgh, EH8 9XP, UK
| | - Florian Humpenöder
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), PO Box 60 12 03, Potsdam, 14412, Germany
| | - Chris Jacobs-Crisioni
- Directorate B Innovation and Growth, Territorial Development Unit, European Commission, Via Fermi 2749, Varese, 21027, Italy
| | - Atul K Jain
- Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Illinois, Urbana, IL, 61801, USA
| | - Tamás Krisztin
- Ecosystem Services and Management Program, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, A-2361, Austria
| | - Page Kyle
- Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Joint Global Change Research Institute, College Park, MD, 20740, USA
| | - Carlo Lavalle
- Directorate B Innovation and Growth, Territorial Development Unit, European Commission, Via Fermi 2749, Varese, 21027, Italy
| | - Tim Lenton
- Earth System Science, College of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of Exeter, Laver Building (Level 7), North Parks Road, Exeter, EX4 4QE, UK
| | - Jiayi Liu
- Biomathematics & Statistics Scotland, JCMB, King's Buildings, Edinburgh, EH9 3JZ, UK
| | - Prasanth Meiyappan
- Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Illinois, Urbana, IL, 61801, USA
| | - Alexander Popp
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), PO Box 60 12 03, Potsdam, 14412, Germany
| | - Tom Powell
- Earth System Science, College of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of Exeter, Laver Building (Level 7), North Parks Road, Exeter, EX4 4QE, UK
| | - Ronald D Sands
- Resource and Rural Economics Division, US Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service, Washington, DC, 20250, USA
| | - Rüdiger Schaldach
- Center for Environmental Systems Research, University of Kassel, Wilhelmshöher Allee 47, Kassel, D-34109, Germany
| | - Elke Stehfest
- Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL), P.O. Box 303, Bilthoven, 3720 AH, The Netherlands
| | | | - Andrzej Tabeau
- LEI, Wageningen University and Research Centre, P.O. Box 29703, The Hague, 2502 LS, The Netherlands
| | - Hans van Meijl
- LEI, Wageningen University and Research Centre, P.O. Box 29703, The Hague, 2502 LS, The Netherlands
| | - Marshall A Wise
- Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Joint Global Change Research Institute, College Park, MD, 20740, USA
| | - Mark D A Rounsevell
- School of GeoSciences, University of Edinburgh, Drummond Street, Edinburgh, EH8 9XP, UK
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10
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Uijl SG, Uiterwaal CSMP, Aldenkamp AP, Carpay JA, Doelman JC, Keizer K, Vecht CJ, de Krom MC, van Donselaar CA. A cross-sectional study of subjective complaints in patients with epilepsy who seem to be well-controlled with anti-epileptic drugs. Seizure 2006; 15:242-8. [PMID: 16551504 DOI: 10.1016/j.seizure.2006.02.009] [Citation(s) in RCA: 67] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/06/2006] [Accepted: 02/15/2006] [Indexed: 11/25/2022] Open
Abstract
OBJECTIVES Side-effects of anti-epileptic drugs (AEDs) may be overlooked in patients with epilepsy in everyday clinical practice. The aim of this study was to assess the prevalence and severity of subjective complaints in patients who were considered to be well-controlled and to assess whether these complaints are related to medication, personality traits, or other determinants. METHODS We included patients with epilepsy who were considered to be well-controlled in a cross-sectional study in seven hospitals in the Netherlands. Their medication had not been changed for six months and an apparent reason to change the medication was lacking at the time of enrolment. Subjective complaints were assessed with a 46-item questionnaire. Using multivariable linear regression modeling, we assessed whether patient characteristics, epilepsy characteristics, medication, quality of life (Qolie-10), and personality traits (SCL-90) explained the presence and severity of complaints. RESULTS Of 173 included patients, 67% reported moderate to severe subjective complaints on the questionnaire. Cognitive complaints were reported most frequently. Multivariate modeling showed that 61% of the variance in reported complaints could be explained by included determinants. The prevalence and severity of complaints was associated with AED polytherapy and higher scores on psycho neuroticism. CONCLUSIONS Patients who were considered to be well-controlled proved to report an unexpectedly high number of subjective complaints. Both medication and aspects of personality contributed to the level of complaints. Our study illustrates that subjective side-effects are easily overlooked in everyday clinical practice, possibly because in practice a generally phrased question is used to detect side-effects.
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Affiliation(s)
- S G Uijl
- Rudolf Magnus Institute of Neuroscience and University Medical Center Utrecht, Department of Clinical Neurophysiology, P.O. Box 85500, 3508 GA Utrecht, The Netherlands.
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11
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Abstract
The linear naevus sebaceus syndrome (LNSS) is a phakomatosis, characterized in general by a triad consisting of naevus sebaceus of Jadassohn, seizures, and mental retardation. In addition, a broad spectrum of neurological, ophthalmological, skeletal, urogenital and cardiovascular symptoms may be encountered. According to our literature review, seizures and mental retardation were reported in 67 and 61% of cases, respectively. Because ophthalmological abnormalities (59%) and involvement of other organ systems (61%) occur frequently, we advise avoidance of adhering to the classical triad for recognizing or describing LNSS. Gross structural abnormality of the cerebrum or cranium was frequently observed (72%), consisting mainly of enlargement of one lateral ventricle, hemimegalencephaly and hemimegacranium. We report a case of a male patient with the clinical features of LNSS, but without cerebral developmental abnormalities at autopsy examination.
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Affiliation(s)
- B P van de Warrenburg
- Department of Child Neurology, University Hospital Nijmegen St. Radboud, The Netherlands
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