Risk of recurrent stroke in patients with atrial fibrillation treated with oral anticoagulants alone or in combination with anti-platelet therapy

INTRODUCTION

Ischaemic stroke patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) are at high risk of stroke recurrence despite oral anticoagulation therapy. Patients with cardiovascular comorbidities may take both antiplatelet and oral anticoagulation therapy (OAC/AP). Our study aims to evaluate the safety and efficacy of OAC/AP therapy as secondary prevention in people with AF and ischaemic stroke.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

We performed a post-hoc analysis of pooled individual data from multicenter prospective cohort studies and compared outcomes in the OAC/AP cohort and patients on DOAC/VKA anticoagulation alone (OAC cohort). Primary outcome was a composite of ischaemic stroke, systemic embolism, intracranial bleeding, and major extracranial bleeding, while secondary outcomes were ischaemic and haemorrhagic events considered separately. A multivariable logistic regression analysis was performed to identify independent predictors for outcome events. To compare the risk of outcome events between the two cohorts, the relation between the survival function and the set of explanatory variables were calculated by Cox proportional hazard models and the results were reported as adjusted hazard ratios (HR). Finally another analysis was performed to compare the overall risk of outcome events in both OAC/AP and OAC cohorts after propensity score matching (PSM).

RESULTS

During a mean follow-up time of 7.5 ± 9.1 months (median follow-up time 3.5 months, interquartile range ±3), 2284 stroke patients were on oral anticoagulants and 215 were on combined therapy. The multivariable model demonstrated that the composite outcome is associated with age (OR: 1.03, 95% CI: 1.01-1.04 for each year increase) and concomitant antiplatelet therapy (OR: 2.2, 95% CI: 1.48-3.27), the ischaemic outcome with congestive heart failure (OR: 1.55, 95% CI: 1.02-2.36) and concomitant antiplatelet therapy (OR: 1.93, 95% CI: 1.19-3.13) and the haemorrhagic outcome with age (OR: 1.03, 95% CI: 1.01-1.06 for each year increase), alcoholism (OR: 2.15, 95% CI: 1.06-4.39) and concomitant antiplatelet therapy (OR: 2.22, 95% CI: 1.23-4.02). Cox regression demonstrated a higher rate of the composite outcome (hazard ratio of 1.93 [95% CI, 1.35-2.76]), ischaemic events (HR: 2.05 [95% CI: 1.45-2.87]) and bleeding outcomes (HR: 1.90 [95% CI, 1.06-3.40]) in OAC/AP cohort. After PSM analysis, the composite outcome remained more frequent in people treated with OAC + AP (RR: 1.70 [95% CI, 1.05-2.74]).

DISCUSSION

Secondary prevention with combination of oral anticoagulant and antiplatelet therapy after ischaemic stroke was associated with worse outcomes in our cohort.

CONCLUSION

Further research is needed to improve secondary prevention by investigating the mechanisms of recurrent ischaemic stroke in patients with atrial fibrillation.

P2Y12 inhibitors plus aspirin for acute treatment and secondary prevention in minor stroke and high-risk transient ischemic attack: A systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Aspirin is a cornerstone of preventive treatment for stroke recurrence, but during the last few years the role of dual antiplatelet therapy (DAPT) is much more emerging.

OBJECTIVE

This systematic review aimed to compare early use of P2Y12 inhibitors (clopidogrel/ticagrelor) plus aspirin to aspirin alone for acute treatment and secondary prevention in acute non-cardioembolic minor ischemic stroke or TIA.

METHODS

A systematic search on MEDLINE and EMBASE was performed. Treatment effects were estimated with RRs and 95% CI. We used RevMan 5.4 for data analyses. We assessed methodological quality of selected studies according to Rob2 tools and quality of evidence with GRADE approach.

RESULTS

Four RCTs were included, enrolling 21,459 patients. Compared to aspirin alone, DAPT was superior in reducing stroke recurrence (RR 0.74, 95% CI 0.67-0.82, P <0.00001, absolute risk difference by 2%, NNT 50) and disabling stroke defined as mRS>2 (RR 0.84, 95% CI 0.75-0.95, P = 0.004), with no impact on all causes of mortality (RR 1.30, 95% CI 0.90-1.89, P = 0.16). An increased risk of major bleeding was emerged (RR 2.54, 95% CI 1.65-3.92, P <0.0001, absolute risk difference by 0,4%, NNH 250), in particular with ticagrelor, but there was no correlation between therapy duration and bleeding risk, as appeared from one-month (RR 3.06, 95% CI 1.64 to 5.69) and three-month (RR 2.09, 95% CI 1.18 to 3.69) follow-up analysis.

CONCLUSIONS

Early administration of P2Y12 inhibitors plus aspirin in patients with acute non-cardioembolic minor ischemic stroke or TIA reduced the incidence of ischemic stroke recurrence, impacting more significantly than the increased bleeding risk and influencing patients' quality of life by reducing disabling stroke.

D-dimer to rule out venous thromboembolism during pregnancy: A systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

The usefulness of D-dimer measurement to rule out venous thromboembolism (VTE) during pregnancy is debated.

OBJECTIVES

We performed a systematic review and meta-analysis to investigate the safety of D-dimer to rule out acute VTE in pregnant women with suspected pulmonary embolism and/or deep vein thrombosis.

METHODS

Two reviewers independently identified studies through PubMed and Embase until June 2021, week 1. We supplemented our search by manually reviewing reference lists of all retrieved articles, clinicalTrials.gov, and reference literature. Prospective or retrospective studies in which a formal diagnostic algorithm was used to evaluate the ability of D-dimer to rule out VTE during pregnancy were eligible.

RESULTS

We identified 665 references through systematic database and additional search strategies; 45 studies were retrieved in full, of which four were included, after applying exclusion criteria. Three studies were prospective, and one had a retrospective design. The 3-month thromboembolic rate in pregnant women left untreated after a negative D-dimer was 1/312 (0.32%; 95% CI, 0.06-1.83). The pooled estimate values were 99.5% for sensitivity (95% CI, 95.0-100.0; I², 0%) and 100% for negative predictive value (95% CI, 99.19-100.0; I², 0%). The prevalence of VTE and the yield of D-dimer were 7.4% (95% CI, 3.8-12; I², 83%) and 34.2% (95% CI, 15.9-55.23; I², 89%) respectively.

CONCLUSION

Our results suggest that D-dimer allows to safely rule out VTE in pregnant women with suspected VTE and a disease prevalence consistent with a low/intermediate or unlikely pretest probability.

Drug-Drug Interactions between Direct Oral Anticoagulants and Hepatitis C Direct-Acting Antiviral Agents: Looking for Evidence Through a Systematic Review

Background

Direct oral anticoagulants (DOACs), as substrates of cytochrome P450 (CYP) 3A4 and/or P-glycoprotein, are susceptible to drug–drug interactions (DDIs). Hepatitis C direct-acting antiviral agents (DAAs), via P-glycoprotein or CYP3A4 inhibition, may increase DOAC exposure with relevant bleeding risk. We performed a systematic review on DDIs between DOACs and DAAs.

Methods

Two reviewers independently identified studies through electronic databases, until 7 July 2020, supplementing the search by reviewing conference abstracts and the ClinicalTrials.gov website.

Results

Of 1386 identified references, four articles were finally included after applying the exclusion criteria. Three phase I clinical studies in healthy volunteers assessed interactions between dabigatran and glecaprevir/pibrentasvir, odalasvir/simeprevir, or sofosbuvir/velpatasvir/voxilaprevir, showing an increase in the dabigatran area under the concentration–time curve (AUC) by 138%, 103%, and 161%, respectively.

Conclusions

DOACs and DAAs are under-investigated for DDI risk. Real-world studies are needed to assess the clinical relevance of the pharmacokinetic interactions with dabigatran and describe the actual spectrum of possible DDIs between DAAs and other DOACs.

External validation of the YEARS diagnostic algorithm for suspected pulmonary embolism

BACKGROUND

Validated diagnostic algorithms are used to manage patients with suspected pulmonary embolism (PE). The recently published YEARS study proposed a simplified diagnostic strategy to reduce the use of computed tomography pulmonary angiography.

OBJECTIVES

To externally validate this strategy in an independent cohort.

METHODS

We analyzed data from three previous prospective cohort studies of outpatients with suspected PE. We retrospectively applied the YEARS algorithm. The three YEARS clinical criteria are: clinical signs of deep vein thrombosis, hemoptysis, and PE as the most likely diagnosis. If zero YEARS criteria are met, a D-dimer < 1000 ng/mL will rule out PE. If ≥1 YEARS criteria are met, a D-dimer < 500 ng/mL will rule out PE.

RESULTS

Of the 3314 patients, 731 (22.1%) had PE. Applying the YEARS diagnostic algorithm, 1423 (42.9%) patients could have had PE ruled out without imaging. Of these patients, 17 (1.2%; 95% confidence interval 0.8-1.9) were diagnosed with PE at initial testing. All 17 had no YEARS item and a D-dimer < 1000 ng/mL. All 17 had a D-dimer level above their age-adjusted cutoff. Among the 272 patients with no YEARS criteria and a D-dimer < 1000 ng/mL but above their age-adjusted D-dimer cutoff, PE was diagnosed in 6.3% (17/272; 95% confidence interval 3.9-9.8).

CONCLUSION

We provide external validation of the YEARS diagnostic algorithm in an independent cohort. The rule appears to safely exclude PE. However, caution is required in patients with no YEARS item and a D-dimer < 1000 ng/mL but above their age-adjusted D-dimer cutoff.

Timing of initiation of oral anticoagulants in patients with acute ischemic stroke and atrial fibrillation comparing posterior and anterior circulation strokes

Introduction

The aim of this study in patients with acute posterior ischaemic stroke (PS) and atrial fibrillation (AF) was to evaluate (1) the risks of recurrent ischaemic event and severe bleeding and (2) these risks in relation with oral anticoagulant therapy (OAT) and its timing.

Materials and Methods

Patients with PS were prospectively included; the outcome events of these patients were compared with those of patients with anterior stroke (AS) which were taken from previous registries. The primary outcome was the composite of stroke recurrence, transient ischaemic attack, symptomatic systemic embolism, symptomatic cerebral bleeding and major extracranial bleeding occurring within 90 days from acute stroke.

Results

A total of 2470 patients were available for the analysis: 473 (19.1%) with PS and 1997 (80.9%) with AS. Over 90 days, 213 (8.6%) primary outcome events were recorded: 175 (8.7%) in patients with AS and 38 (8.0%) in those with PS. In patients who initiated OAT within 2 days, the primary outcome occurred in 5 out of 95 patients (5.3%) with PS compared to 21 out of 373 patients (4.3%) with AS (OR 1.07; 95% CI 0.39-2.94). In patients who initiated OAT between days 3 and 7, the primary outcome occurred in 3 out of 103 patients (2.9%) with PS compared to 26 out of 490 patients (5.3%) with AS (OR 0.54; 95% CI 0.16-1.80).

Discussion

our findings suggest that, when deciding the time to initiate oral anticoagulation, the location of stroke, either anterior or posterior, does not predict the risk of outcome events.

Conclusions

Patients with PS or AS and AF appear to have similar risks of ischaemic or haemorrhagic events at 90 days with no difference concerning the timing of initiation of OAT.

Safety of Anticoagulation in Patients Treated With Urgent Reperfusion for Ischemic Stroke Related to Atrial Fibrillation

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE

The optimal timing for starting oral anticoagulant after an ischemic stroke related to atrial fibrillation remains a challenge, mainly in patients treated with systemic thrombolysis or mechanical thrombectomy. We aimed at assessing the incidence of early recurrence and major bleeding in patients with acute ischemic stroke and atrial fibrillation treated with thrombolytic therapy and/or thrombectomy, who then received oral anticoagulants for secondary prevention.

METHODS

We combined the dataset of the RAF and the RAF-NOACs (Early Recurrence and Major Bleeding in Patients With Acute Ischemic Stroke and Atrial Fibrillation Treated With Non-Vitamin K Oral Anticoagulants) studies, which were prospective observational studies carried out from January 2012 to March 2014 and April 2014 to June 2016, respectively. We included consecutive patients with acute ischemic stroke and atrial fibrillation treated with either vitamin K antagonists or nonvitamin K oral anticoagulants. Primary outcome was the composite of stroke, transient ischemic attack, symptomatic systemic embolism, symptomatic cerebral bleeding, and major extracerebral bleeding within 90 days from the inclusion. Treated-patients were propensity matched to untreated-patients in a 1:1 ratio after stratification by baseline clinical features.

RESULTS

A total of 2159 patients were included, 564 (26%) patients received acute reperfusion therapies. After the index event, 505 (90%) patients treated with acute reperfusion therapies and 1287 of 1595 (81%) patients untreated started oral anticoagulation. Timing of starting oral anticoagulant was similar in reperfusion-treated and untreated patients (median 7.5 versus 7.0 days, respectively). At 90 days, the primary study outcome occurred in 37 (7%) patients treated with reperfusion and in 146 (9%) untreated patients (odds ratio, 0.74 [95% CI, 0.50-1.07]). After propensity score matching, risk of primary outcome was comparable between the 2 groups (odds ratio, 1.06 [95% CI, 0.53-2.02]).

CONCLUSIONS

Acute reperfusion treatment did not influence the risk of early recurrence and major bleeding in patients with atrial fibrillation-related acute ischemic stroke, who started on oral anticoagulant.

Hemorrhagic Transformation in Patients With Acute Ischemic Stroke and Atrial Fibrillation: Time to Initiation of Oral Anticoagulant Therapy and Outcomes

Background

In patients with acute ischemic stroke and atrial fibrillation, early anticoagulation prevents ischemic recurrence but with the risk of hemorrhagic transformation (HT). The aims of this study were to evaluate in consecutive patients with acute stroke and atrial fibrillation (1) the incidence of early HT, (2) the time to initiation of anticoagulation in patients with HT, (3) the association of HT with ischemic recurrences, and (4) the association of HT with clinical outcome at 90 days.

Methods and Results

HT was diagnosed by a second brain computed tomographic scan performed 24 to 72 hours after stroke onset. The incidence of ischemic recurrences as well as mortality or disability (modified Rankin Scale scores >2) were evaluated at 90 days. Ischemic recurrences were the composite of ischemic stroke, transient ischemic attack, or systemic embolism. Among the 2183 patients included in the study, 241 (11.0%) had HT. Patients with and without HT initiated anticoagulant therapy after a mean 23.3 and 11.6 days, respectively, from index stroke. At 90 days, 4.6% (95% confidence interval, 2.3–8.0) of the patients with HT had ischemic recurrences compared with 4.9% (95% confidence interval, 4.0–6.0) of those without HT; 53.1% of patients with HT were deceased or disabled compared with 35.8% of those without HT. On multivariable analysis, HT was associated with mortality or disability (odds ratio, 1.71; 95% confidence interval, 1.24–2.35).

Conclusions

In patients with HT, anticoagulation was initiated about 12 days later than patients without HT. This delay was not associated with increased detection of ischemic recurrence. HT was associated with increased mortality or disability.

Anticoagulation After Stroke in Patients With Atrial Fibrillation

Background and Purpose- Bridging therapy with low-molecular-weight heparin reportedly leads to a worse outcome for acute cardioembolic stroke patients because of a higher incidence of intracerebral bleeding. However, this practice is common in clinical settings. This observational study aimed to compare (1) the clinical profiles of patients receiving and not receiving bridging therapy, (2) overall group outcomes, and (3) outcomes according to the type of anticoagulant prescribed. Methods- We analyzed data of patients from the prospective RAF and RAF-NOACs studies. The primary outcome was defined as the composite of ischemic stroke, transient ischemic attack, systemic embolism, symptomatic cerebral bleeding, and major extracerebral bleeding observed at 90 days after the acute stroke. Results- Of 1810 patients who initiated oral anticoagulant therapy, 371 (20%) underwent bridging therapy with full-dose low-molecular-weight heparin. Older age and the presence of leukoaraiosis were inversely correlated with the use of bridging therapy. Forty-two bridged patients (11.3%) reached the combined outcome versus 72 (5.0%) of the nonbridged patients (P=0.0001). At multivariable analysis, bridging therapy was associated with the composite end point (odds ratio, 2.3; 95% CI, 1.4-3.7; P<0.0001), as well as ischemic (odds ratio, 2.2; 95% CI, 1.3-3.9; P=0.005) and hemorrhagic (odds ratio, 2.4; 95% CI, 1.2-4.9; P=0.01) end points separately. Conclusions- Our findings suggest that patients receiving low-molecular-weight heparin have a higher risk of early ischemic recurrence and hemorrhagic transformation compared with nonbridged patients.

Early recurrence in paroxysmal versus sustained atrial fibrillation in patients with acute ischaemic stroke

Background

The relationship between different patterns of atrial fibrillation and early recurrence after an acute ischaemic stroke is unclear.

Purpose

In a prospective cohort study, we evaluated the rates of early ischaemic recurrence after an acute ischaemic stroke in patients with paroxysmal atrial fibrillation or sustained atrial fibrillation which included persistent and permanent atrial fibrillation.

Methods

In patients with acute ischaemic stroke, atrial fibrillation was categorised as paroxysmal atrial fibrillation or sustained atrial fibrillation. Ischaemic recurrences were the composite of ischaemic stroke, transient ischaemic attack and symptomatic systemic embolism occurring within 90 days from acute index stroke.

Results

A total of 2150 patients (1155 females, 53.7%) were enrolled: 930 (43.3%) had paroxysmal atrial fibrillation and 1220 (56.7%) sustained atrial fibrillation. During the 90-day follow-up, 111 ischaemic recurrences were observed in 107 patients: 31 in patients with paroxysmal atrial fibrillation (3.3%) and 76 with sustained atrial fibrillation (6.2%) (hazard ratio (HR) 1.86 (95% CI 1.24-2.81)). Patients with sustained atrial fibrillation were on average older, more likely to have diabetes mellitus, hypertension, history of stroke/ transient ischaemic attack, congestive heart failure, atrial enlargement, high baseline NIHSS-score and implanted pacemaker. After adjustment by Cox proportional hazard model, sustained atrial fibrillation was not associated with early ischaemic recurrences (adjusted HR 1.23 (95% CI 0.74-2.04)).

Conclusions

After acute ischaemic stroke, patients with sustained atrial fibrillation had a higher rate of early ischaemic recurrence than patients with paroxysmal atrial fibrillation. After adjustment for relevant risk factors, sustained atrial fibrillation was not associated with a significantly higher risk of recurrence, thus suggesting that the risk profile associated with atrial fibrillation, rather than its pattern, is determinant for recurrence.

Aspirin Plus Clopidogrel vs Aspirin Alone for Preventing Cardiovascular Events Among Patients at High Risk for Cardiovascular Events

CLINICAL QUESTION

Among patients at high risk for or with established cardiovascular disease (ie, history of peripheral artery disease, stroke, or coronary artery disease without a coronary stent), is the addition of clopidogrel to aspirin associated with lower risk of mortality and cardiovascular events compared with aspirin alone?

BOTTOM LINE

Clopidogrel plus aspirin is associated with a reduced risk for myocardial infarction and ischemic stroke and an increased risk for major bleeding compared with aspirin alone among patients at high risk for or with an established cardiovascular disease but without a coronary stent. However, combined therapy is not associated with lower mortality.

Clopidogrel plus aspirin versus aspirin alone for preventing cardiovascular events

BACKGROUND

Aspirin is the prophylactic antiplatelet drug of choice for people with cardiovascular disease. Adding a second antiplatelet drug to aspirin may produce additional benefit for people at high risk and people with established cardiovascular disease. This is an update to a previously published review from 2011.

OBJECTIVES

To review the benefit and harm of adding clopidogrel to aspirin therapy for preventing cardiovascular events in people who have coronary disease, ischaemic cerebrovascular disease, peripheral arterial disease, or were at high risk of atherothrombotic disease, but did not have a coronary stent.

SEARCH METHODS

We updated the searches of CENTRAL (2017, Issue 6), MEDLINE (Ovid, 1946 to 4 July 2017) and Embase (Ovid, 1947 to 3 July 2017) on 4 July 2017. We also searched ClinicalTrials.gov and the WHO ICTRP portal, and handsearched reference lists. We applied no language restrictions.

SELECTION CRITERIA

We included all randomised controlled trials comparing over 30 days use of aspirin plus clopidogrel with aspirin plus placebo or aspirin alone in people with coronary disease, ischaemic cerebrovascular disease, peripheral arterial disease, or at high risk of atherothrombotic disease. We excluded studies including only people with coronary drug-eluting stent (DES) or non-DES, or both.

DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS

We collected data on mortality from cardiovascular causes, all-cause mortality, fatal and non-fatal myocardial infarction, fatal and non-fatal ischaemic stroke, major and minor bleeding. The overall treatment effect was estimated by the pooled risk ratio (RR) with 95% confidence interval (CI), using a fixed-effect model (Mantel-Haenszel); we used a random-effects model in cases of moderate or severe heterogeneity (I2 ≥ 30%). We assessed the quality of the evidence using the GRADE approach. We used GRADE profiler (GRADE Pro) to import data from Review Manager to create a 'Summary of findings' table.

MAIN RESULTS

The search identified 13 studies in addition to the two studies in the previous version of our systematic review. Overall, we included data from 15 trials with 33,970 people. We completed a 'Risk of bias' assessment for all studies. The risk of bias was low in four trials because they were at low risk of bias for all key domains (random sequence generation, allocation concealment, blinding, selective outcome reporting and incomplete outcome data), even if some of them were funded by the pharmaceutical industry.Analysis showed no difference in the effectiveness of aspirin plus clopidogrel in preventing cardiovascular mortality (RR 0.98, 95% CI 0.88 to 1.10; participants = 31,903; studies = 7; moderate quality evidence), and no evidence of a difference in all-cause mortality (RR 1.05, 95% CI 0.87 to 1.25; participants = 32,908; studies = 9; low quality evidence).There was a lower risk of fatal and non-fatal myocardial infarction with clopidogrel plus aspirin compared with aspirin plus placebo or aspirin alone (RR 0.78, 95% CI 0.69 to 0.90; participants = 16,175; studies = 6; moderate quality evidence). There was a reduction in the risk of fatal and non-fatal ischaemic stroke (RR 0.73, 95% CI 0.59 to 0.91; participants = 4006; studies = 5; moderate quality evidence).However, there was a higher risk of major bleeding with clopidogrel plus aspirin compared with aspirin plus placebo or aspirin alone (RR 1.44, 95% CI 1.25 to 1.64; participants = 33,300; studies = 10; moderate quality evidence) and of minor bleeding (RR 2.03, 95% CI 1.75 to 2.36; participants = 14,731; studies = 8; moderate quality evidence).Overall, we would expect 13 myocardial infarctions and 23 ischaemic strokes be prevented for every 1000 patients treated with the combination in a median follow-up period of 12 months, but 9 major bleeds and 33 minor bleeds would be caused during a median follow-up period of 10.5 and 6 months, respectively.

AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS

The available evidence demonstrates that the use of clopidogrel plus aspirin in people at high risk of cardiovascular disease and people with established cardiovascular disease without a coronary stent is associated with a reduction in the risk of myocardial infarction and ischaemic stroke, and an increased risk of major and minor bleeding compared with aspirin alone. According to GRADE criteria, the quality of evidence was moderate for all outcomes except all-cause mortality (low quality evidence) and adverse events (very low quality evidence).

Early Recurrence and Major Bleeding in Patients With Acute Ischemic Stroke and Atrial Fibrillation Treated With Non-Vitamin-K Oral Anticoagulants (RAF-NOACs) Study

BACKGROUND

The optimal timing to administer non-vitamin K oral anticoagulants (NOACs) in patients with acute ischemic stroke and atrial fibrillation is unclear. This prospective observational multicenter study evaluated the rates of early recurrence and major bleeding (within 90 days) and their timing in patients with acute ischemic stroke and atrial fibrillation who received NOACs for secondary prevention.

METHODS AND RESULTS

Recurrence was defined as the composite of ischemic stroke, transient ischemic attack, and symptomatic systemic embolism, and major bleeding was defined as symptomatic cerebral and major extracranial bleeding. For the analysis, 1127 patients were eligible: 381 (33.8%) were treated with dabigatran, 366 (32.5%) with rivaroxaban, and 380 (33.7%) with apixaban. Patients who received dabigatran were younger and had lower admission National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale score and less commonly had a CHA₂DS₂-VASc score >4 and less reduced renal function. Thirty-two patients (2.8%) had early recurrence, and 27 (2.4%) had major bleeding. The rates of early recurrence and major bleeding were, respectively, 1.8% and 0.5% in patients receiving dabigatran, 1.6% and 2.5% in those receiving rivaroxaban, and 4.0% and 2.9% in those receiving apixaban. Patients who initiated NOACs within 2 days after acute stroke had a composite rate of recurrence and major bleeding of 12.4%; composite rates were 2.1% for those who initiated NOACs between 3 and 14 days and 9.1% for those who initiated >14 days after acute stroke.

CONCLUSIONS

In patients with acute ischemic stroke and atrial fibrillation, treatment with NOACs was associated with a combined 5% rate of ischemic embolic recurrence and severe bleeding within 90 days.

Poor predictive value of contemporary bleeding risk scores during long-term treatment of venous thromboembolism

Bleeding is a common and feared complication of oral anticoagulant therapy. Several prediction models have been recently developed, but there is a lack of evidence in patients with venous thromboembolism (VTE). The aim of this study was to validate currently available bleeding risk scores during long-term oral anticoagulation for VTE. We retrospectively included adult patients on vitamin K antagonists for VTE secondary prevention, followed by five Italian Anticoagulation Clinics (Cuneo, Livorno, Mantova, Napoli, Varese), between January 2010 and August 2012. All bleeding events were classified as major bleeding (MB) or clinically-relevant-non-major-bleeding (CRNMB). A total of 681 patients were included (median age 63 years; 52.0% female). During a mean follow-up of 8.82 (± 3.59) months, 50 bleeding events occurred (13 MB and 37 CRNMB), for an overall bleeding incidence of 9.99/100 patient-years. The rate of bleeding was higher in the first three months of treatment (15.86/100 patient-years) than afterwards (7.13/100 patient-years). The HAS-BLED showed the best predictive value for bleeding complications during the first three months of treatment (area under the curve [AUC] 0.68, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.59–0.78), while only the ACCP score showed a modest predictive value after the initial three months (AUC 0.61, 95%CI 0.51–0.72). These two scores had also the highest sensitivity and the highest negative predictive value. None of the scores predicted MB better than chance. Currently available bleeding risk scores had only a modest predictive value for patients with VTE. Future studies should aim at the creation of a new prediction rule, in order to better define the risk of bleeding of VTE patients.

Prediction of Early Recurrent Thromboembolic Event and Major Bleeding in Patients With Acute Stroke and Atrial Fibrillation by a Risk Stratification Schema: The ALESSA Score Study

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSES

This study was designed to derive and validate a score to predict early ischemic events and major bleedings after an acute ischemic stroke in patients with atrial fibrillation.

METHODS

The derivation cohort consisted of 854 patients with acute ischemic stroke and atrial fibrillation included in prospective series between January 2012 and March 2014. Older age (hazard ratio 1.06 for each additional year; 95% confidence interval, 1.00-1.11) and severe atrial enlargement (hazard ratio, 2.05; 95% confidence interval, 1.08-2.87) were predictors for ischemic outcome events (stroke, transient ischemic attack, and systemic embolism) at 90 days from acute stroke. Small lesions (≤1.5 cm) were inversely correlated with both major bleeding (hazard ratio, 0.39; P=0.03) and ischemic outcome events (hazard ratio, 0.55; 95% confidence interval, 0.30-1.00). We assigned to age ≥80 years 2 points and between 70 and 79 years 1 point; ischemic index lesion >1.5 cm, 1 point; severe atrial enlargement, 1 point (ALESSA score). A logistic regression with the receiver-operating characteristic graph procedure (C statistic) showed an area under the curve of 0.697 (0.632-0.763; P=0.0001) for ischemic outcome events and 0.585 (0.493-0.678; P=0.10) for major bleedings.

RESULTS

The validation cohort consisted of 994 patients included in prospective series between April 2014 and June 2016. Logistic regression with the receiver-operating characteristic graph procedure showed an area under the curve of 0.646 (0.529-0.763; P=0.009) for ischemic outcome events and 0.407 (0.275-0.540; P=0.14) for hemorrhagic outcome events.

CONCLUSIONS

In acute stroke patients with atrial fibrillation, high ALESSA scores were associated with a high risk of ischemic events but not of major bleedings.