The values and risks of an Intergovernmental Panel for One Health to strengthen pandemic prevention, preparedness, and response

The COVID-19 pandemic has shown the need for better global governance of pandemic prevention, preparedness, and response (PPR) and has emphasised the importance of organised knowledge production and uptake. In this Health Policy, we assess the potential values and risks of establishing an Intergovernmental Panel for One Health (IPOH). Similar to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, an IPOH would facilitate knowledge uptake in policy making via a multisectoral approach, and hence support the addressing of infectious disease emergence and re-emergence at the human-animal-environment interface. The potential benefits to pandemic PPR include a clear, unified, and authoritative voice from the scientific community, support to help donors and institutions to prioritise their investments, evidence-based policies for implementation, and guidance on defragmenting the global health system. Potential risks include a scope not encompassing all pandemic origins, unclear efficacy in fostering knowledge uptake by policy makers, potentially inadequate speed in facilitating response efforts, and coordination challenges among an already dense set of stakeholders. We recommend weighing these factors when designing institutional reforms for a more effective global health system.

On the extraordinary winter flood episode over the North Atlantic Basin in 1936

In this study, we analyze the linkage between atmosphere and ocean modes and winter flood variability over the 20th century based on long-term flow-discharge series, historical archives, and tree-ring records of past floods in the North Atlantic Basin (NAB). The most extreme winter floods occurred in 1936 and had strong impacts on either side of the Atlantic. We hypothesize that the joint effects of sea surface temperatures (SSTs) over the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans and the Arctic Oscillation (AO), which is closely related to the North Atlantic Oscillation, play a significant role when describing flood variability in North America and Europe since 1900. Statistical modeling supports the assumption that the response of flood anomalies over the NAB to AO phases is subsidiary of SST phases. Besides, we shed light on the extraordinarily winter flood of 1936 that was characterized by very high SSTs over both the Atlantic and Pacific (>98th percentile) and very low, negative values of AO (<1st percentile). This outstanding winter flood episode was most likely characterized by stratospheric polar vortex anomalies, which can usually be linked to an increased probability of storms in western and southwestern Europe and increased snowfall events in eastern North America. By assessing the flood anomalies over the NAB as a coupled AO and SST function, one could further the understanding of such large-scale events and presumably improve anticipation of future extreme flood occurrences.

Modulation of extreme temperatures in Europe under extreme values of the North Atlantic Oscillation Index

This paper reports on the influence that extreme values in the tails of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) Index probability density function (PDF) can exert on temperatures in Europe. When the NAO Index enters into its lowest (10% quantile or less) and highest (90% quantile or higher) modes, European temperatures often exhibit large negative or positive departures from their mean values, respectively. Analyses of the joint quantiles of the Index and temperatures (i.e., the simultaneous exceedance of particular quantile thresholds by the two variables) show that temperatures enter into the upper or lower tails of their PDF when the NAO Index also enters into its extreme tails, more often that could be expected from random statistics. Studies of this nature help further our understanding of the manner by which mechanisms of decadal-scale climate variability can influence extremes of temperature-and thus perhaps improve the forecasting of extreme temperatures in weather and climate models.

Pest management under climate change: The importance of understanding tritrophic relations

Plants and insects depend on climatic factors (temperature, solar radiation, precipitations, relative humidity and CO₂) for their development. Current knowledge suggests that climate change can alter plants and insects development and affect their interactions. Shifts in tritrophic relations are of particular concern for Integrated Pest Management (IPM), because responses at the highest trophic level (natural enemies) are highly sensitive to warmer temperature. It is expected that natural enemies could benefit from better conditions for their development in northern latitudes and IPM could be facilitated by a longer period of overlap. This may not be the case in southern latitudes, where climate could become too warm. Adapting IPM to future climatic conditions requires therefore understanding of changes that occur at the various levels and their linkages. The aim of this review is to assess the current state of knowledge and highlights the gaps in the existing literature concerning how climate change can affect tritrophic relations. Because of the economic importance of wine production, the interactions between grapevine, Vitis vinifera (1st), Lobesia botrana (2nd) and Trichogramma spp., (3rd), an egg parasitoid of Lobesia botrana, are considered as a case study for addressing specific issues. In addition, we discuss models that could be applied in order quantify alterations in the synchrony or asynchrony patterns but also the shifts in the timing and spatial distribution of hosts, pests and their natural enemies.

Rain-on-snow events, floods and climate change in the Alps: Events may increase with warming up to 4°C and decrease thereafter

This paper focuses on the influence of mountain rain-on-snow (ROS) events that can on occasion trigger major floods in alpine catchments. In order to assess the evolution of these events in a recent past, and the potential changes that could be experienced in a changing climate over coming decades, we have focused on a small catchment in north-eastern Switzerland, the Sitter, well-endowed with both climate and hydrological data. Observations show that there has been an increase in the number of rain-on-snow events since the early 1960s related to the rise in atmospheric temperatures. Results from a simple temperature-based snow model show that the number of ROS events could increase by close to 50% with temperatures 2-4°C warmer than today, before declining when temperatures go beyond 4°C. The likelihood of more ROS events suggests that the risks of flooding in a future climate may indeed get worse before they improve.

Regional reconstruction of flash flood history in the Guadarrama range (Central System, Spain)

Flash floods are a common natural hazard in Mediterranean mountain environments and responsible for serious economic and human disasters. The study of flash flood dynamics and their triggers is a key issue; however, the retrieval of historical data is often limited in mountain regions as a result of short time series and the systematic lack of historical data. In this study, we attempt to overcome data deficiency by supplementing existing records with dendrogeomorphic techniques which were employed in seven mountain streams along the northern slopes of the Guadarrama Mountain range. Here we present results derived from the tree-ring analysis of 117 samples from 63 Pinus sylvestris L. trees injured by flash floods, to complement existing flash flood records covering the last ~200years and comment on their hydro-meteorological triggers. To understand the varying number of reconstructed flash flood events in each of the catchments, we also performed a comparative analysis of geomorphic catchment characteristics, land use evolution and forest management. Furthermore, we discuss the limitations of dendrogeomorphic techniques applied in managed forests.

Shifting mountain snow patterns in a changing climate from remote sensing retrieval

Observed climate change has already led to a wide range of impacts on environmental systems and society. In this context, many mountain regions seem to be particularly sensitive to a changing climate, through increases in temperature coupled with changes in precipitation regimes that are often larger than the global average (EEA, 2012). In mid-latitude mountains, these driving factors strongly influence the variability of the mountain snow-pack, through a decrease in seasonal reserves and earlier melting of the snow pack. These in turn impact on hydrological systems in different watersheds and, ultimately, have consequences for water management. Snow monitoring from remote sensing provides a unique opportunity to address the question of snow cover regime changes at the regional scale. This study outlines the results retrieved from the MODIS satellite images over a time period of 10 hydrological years (2000-2010) and applied to two case studies of the EU FP7 ACQWA project, namely the upper Rhone and Po in Europe and the headwaters of the Syr Darya in Kyrgyzstan (Central Asia). The satellite data were provided by the MODIS Terra MOD-09 reflectance images (NASA) and MOD-10 snow products (NSIDC). Daily snow maps were retrieved over that decade and the results presented here focus on the temporal and spatial changes in snow cover. This paper highlights the statistical bias observed in some specific regions, expressed by the standard deviation values (STD) of annual snow duration. This bias is linked to the response of snow cover to changes in elevation and can be used as a signal of strong instability in regions sensitive to climate change: with alternations of heavy snowfalls and rapid snow melting processes. The interest of the study is to compare the methodology between the medium scales (Europe) and the large scales (Central Asia) in order to overcome the limits of the applied methodologies and to improve their performances. Results show that the yearly snow cover duration increases by 4-5 days per 100 m elevation during the accumulation period, depending of the watershed, while during the melting season the snow depletion rate is 0.3% per day of surface loss for the upper Rhone catchment, 0.4%/day for the Syr Darya headwater basins, and 0.6%/day for the upper Po, respectively. Then, the annual STD maps of snow cover indicate higher values (more than 45 days difference compared to the mean values) for (i) the Po foothill region at medium elevation (SE orientation) and (ii) the Kyrgyzstan high plateaux (permafrost areas). These observations cover only a time-period of 10 years, but exhibit a signal under current climate that is already consistent with the expected decline in snow in these regions in the course of the 21st century.

Assessing the impacts of climatic change on mountain water resources

As the evidence for human induced climate change becomes clearer, so too does the realization that its effects will have impacts on numerous environmental and socio-economic systems. Mountains are recognized as very sensitive physical environments with populations whose histories and current social positions often strain their capacity to accommodate intense and rapid changes to their resource base. It is thus essential to assess the impacts of a changing climate, focusing on the quantity of water originating in mountain regions, particularly where snow and ice melt represent a large streamflow component as well as a local resource in terms of freshwater supply, hydropower generation, or irrigation. Increasing evidence of glacier retreat, permafrost degradation and reduced mountain snowpack has been observed in many regions, thereby suggesting that climate change may seriously affect streamflow regimes. These changes could in turn threaten the availability of water resources for many environmental and economic systems, and exacerbate a range of natural hazards that would compound these impacts. As a consequence, socio-economic structures of downstream living populations would be also impacted, calling for better preparedness and strategies to avoid conflicts of interest between water-dependent economic actors. This paper is thus an introduction to the Special Issue of this journal dedicated to the European Union Seventh Framework Program (EU-FP7) project ACQWA (Assessing Climate Impacts on the Quantity and Quality of WAter), a major European network of scientists that was coordinated by the University of Geneva from 2008 to 2014. The goal of ACQWA has been to address a number of these issues and propose a range of solutions for adaptation to change and to help improve water governance in regions where quantity, seasonality, and perhaps quality of water may substantially change in coming decades.

21st century climate change in the European Alps--a review

Reliable estimates of future climate change in the Alps are relevant for large parts of the European society. At the same time, the complex Alpine region poses considerable challenges to climate models, which translate to uncertainties in the climate projections. Against this background, the present study reviews the state-of-knowledge about 21st century climate change in the Alps based on existing literature and additional analyses. In particular, it explicitly considers the reliability and uncertainty of climate projections. Results show that besides Alpine temperatures, also precipitation, global radiation, relative humidity, and closely related impacts like floods, droughts, snow cover, and natural hazards will be affected by global warming. Under the A1B emission scenario, about 0.25 °C warming per decade until the mid of the 21st century and accelerated 0.36 °C warming per decade in the second half of the century is expected. Warming will probably be associated with changes in the seasonality of precipitation, global radiation, and relative humidity, and more intense precipitation extremes and flooding potential in the colder part of the year. The conditions of currently record breaking warm or hot winter or summer seasons, respectively, may become normal at the end of the 21st century, and there is indication for droughts to become more severe in the future. Snow cover is expected to drastically decrease below 1500-2000 m and natural hazards related to glacier and permafrost retreat are expected to become more frequent. Such changes in climatic parameters and related quantities will have considerable impact on ecosystems and society and will challenge their adaptive capabilities.

Integration of research advances in modelling and monitoring in support of WFD river basin management planning in the context of climate change

The integration of scientific knowledge about possible climate change impacts on water resources has a direct implication on the way water policies are being implemented and evolving. This is particularly true regarding various technical steps embedded into the EU Water Framework Directive river basin management planning, such as risk characterisation, monitoring, design and implementation of action programmes and evaluation of the "good status" objective achievements (in 2015). The need to incorporate climate change considerations into the implementation of EU water policy is currently discussed with a wide range of experts and stakeholders at EU level. Research trends are also on-going, striving to support policy developments and examining how scientific findings and recommendations could be best taken on board by policy-makers and water managers within the forthcoming years. This paper provides a snapshot of policy discussions about climate change in the context of the WFD river basin management planning and specific advancements of related EU-funded research projects. Perspectives for strengthening links among the scientific and policy-making communities in this area are also highlighted.

Climatic change: possible impacts on human health

This paper addresses a number of problems relating to climatic change and human health. Following an introduction outlining the overarching issues, a short summary is given on climatic change and its anthropogenic causes. The rest of the paper then focuses on the direct and indirect impacts of global climatic change on health. Direct effects comprise changes in the hygrothermal stress response of humans, atmospheric pollution, water quality and availability; indirect effects include the potential for the spread of vector-borne diseases outside their current range. The paper concludes with some comments on possible response strategies aimed at alleviating the adverse effects of climatic change on human health.

Climatic change: possible impacts on human health

This paper addresses a number of problems relating to climatic change and human health. Following an introduction outlining the overarching issues, a short summary is given on climatic change and its anthropogenic causes. The rest of the paper then focuses on the direct and indirect impacts of global climatic change on health. Direct effects comprise changes in the hygrothermal stress response of humans, atmospheric pollution, water quality and availability; indirect effects include the potential for the spread of vector-borne diseases outside their current range. The paper concludes with some comments on possible response strategies aimed at alleviating the adverse effects of climatic change on human health.