[Heat and heavy rain prevention measures in daycare centres and care facilities: an evaluation of risk perception, communication and information materials]

BACKGROUND AND AIM

Heat and heavy rain can have negative health impacts for people in Germany. Vulnerable groups in particular, such as children and the elderly, are at increased risk and require special precautions. This paper examines how employers of the municipal administration and facilitating organisations perceive the risk of heat and heavy rain for daycare centres and care facilities, and to what extent an exchange takes place between the municipal level and the facilities. In addition, specially developed information materials with recommendations for action for adapting to heat and heavy rain that are aimed at such facilities were evaluated.

METHODS

In the summer of 2021, we conducted a quantitative survey. A total of 333 respondents from municipal administrations, facilitating organisations and institutions participated. Descriptive analyses and ANOVAs were conducted.

RESULTS

Risk perception and adaptation knowledge concerning heat was perceived higher than concerning heavy rain. The intention to support institutions in finding measures for adaptation was also higher with regard to heat. The majority of interviewees from municipal administrations and institutions communicated with institutions through various channels on different topics including the natural hazards mentioned. The information material was evaluated positively.

DISCUSSION

This article shows that facilities are seen as very affected by heat waves. Awareness towards heavy rainfall needs to be raised. The feedback on the information material clearly shows a high need in this area.

Impact of natural disasters on student enrollment in higher education programs: A systematic review

This study aims to evaluate how natural disasters affect student enrollment in higher education programs, considering both immediate and long-term consequences. The PRISMA guidelines were adhered to in conducting this review. Multiple databases, such as Web of Science and Scopus, including those with articles from January 2000 to February 2023, were thoroughly searched. Articles focusing on how natural disasters affect students' enrollment in higher education programs met the inclusion requirements. A total of 22 studies were deemed eligible for inclusion and detailed analysis. The findings suggest that natural disasters have a negative influence on higher education enrollment, with the most severe effects being felt by disadvantaged populations. This study reveals that natural disasters impact various aspects of the enrollment process, such as application, acceptance, registration, attendance, retention, and graduation, in higher education due to infrastructural and psychological impacts. Key variables linking natural disasters to enrollment changes include damage to institutional infrastructure, economic and psychological strain, resource limitations, loss of social support networks, and disruptions to academic programs. Enhancing resilience involves adopting online learning, providing financial support, flexible enrollment policies, mental health services, disaster preparedness training, resilient infrastructure development, and collaborative institutional programs. The study highlights the need for comprehensive, context-specific disaster management strategies that address both immediate and long-term educational needs. It identifies potential solutions, including online learning platforms, financial aid, flexible enrollment policies, mental health support, disaster preparedness training, infrastructure resilience, and collaborative programs with other institutions. Context-specific programs are essential to support impacted students by rebuilding educational infrastructure and providing financial and emotional support, thereby ensuring their continued access to higher education. This study offers valuable insights for disaster management, educational policy, and future research on this critical issue.

Spatial and temporal changes of social vulnerability of cities to natural hazards in Zhejiang province, China

Understanding how social dynamics interact with natural hazards is one of the main challenges at global and local scales in the world for studying social vulnerability to natural hazards. In this study, we explore the spatial and temporal changes of social vulnerability of cities in Zhejiang province to natural hazards in China for the last decade. Based on the Zhejiang province's census data and the demographics and socioeconomic data during the period from 2009 to 2018, we have characterized social vulnerability through the Social Vulnerability Index (SoVI) for 11 cities throughout the province during 2009-2018 and examined spatial changes in social vulnerability using equal interval method. The results indicated that although the comprehensive vulnerability of Zhejiang province shows a declining trend at a county level, the social vulnerability of different city at the provincial level has obvious differences.

Geo-ecological, shoreline dynamic, and flooding impacts of Cyclonic Storm Mocha: A geospatial analysis

This research comprehensively assesses the aftermath of Cyclonic Storm Mocha, focusing on the coastal zones of Rakhine State and the Chittagong Division, spanning Myanmar and Bangladesh. The investigation emphasizes the impacts on coastal ecology, shoreline dynamics, flooding patterns, and meteorological variations. Employed were multiple vegetation indices-Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI), Modified Vegetation Condition Index (mVCI), Disaster Vegetation Damage Index (DVDI), and Fractional Vegetation Cover (FVC)-to evaluate ecological consequences. The Digital Shoreline Assessment System (DSAS) aided in determining shoreline alterations pre- and post-cyclone. Soil exposure and flood extents were scrutinized using the Bare Soil Index (BSI) and Modified Normalized Difference Water Index (MNDWI), respectively. Additionally, the study encompassed an analysis of microclimatic variables, comparing meteorological data across pre- and post-cyclone periods. Findings indicate significant ecological impacts: an estimated 8985.46 km2 of dense vegetation (NDVI >0.6) was adversely affected. Post-cyclone, there was a discernible reduction in EVI values. The mean mVCI shifted negatively from -0.18 to -0.33, and the mean FVC decreased from 0.39 to 0.33. The DVDI underscored considerable vegetation damage in various areas, underscoring the cyclone's extensive impact. Meteorological analysis revealed a 245 % increase in rainfall (20.22 mm on May 14, 2023 compared to the May average of 5.86 mm), and significant increases in relative humidity (14 %) and wind speed (205 %). Erosion was observed along 74.60 % of the studied shoreline. These insights are pivotal for developing comprehensive strategies aimed at the rehabilitation and conservation of critical coastal ecosystems. They provide vital data for emergency response initiatives and offer resources for entities engaged in enhancing coastal resilience and protecting local community livelihoods.

Multi-datasets to monitor and assess meteorological and hydrological droughts in a typical basin of the Brazilian semiarid region

This study analyzed the meteorological and hydrological droughts in a typical basin of the Brazilian semiarid region from 1994 to 2016. In recent decades, this region has faced prolonged and severe droughts, leading to marked reductions in agricultural productivity and significant challenges to food security and water availability. The datasets employed included a digital elevation model, land use and cover data, soil characteristics, climatic data (temperature, wind speed, solar radiation, humidity, and precipitation), runoff data, images from the MODIS/TERRA and AQUA sensors (MOD09A1 and MODY09A1 products), and soil water content. A variety of methods and products were used to study these droughts: the meteorological drought was analyzed using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) derived from observed precipitation data, while the hydrological drought was assessed using the Standardized Soil Index (SSI), the Nonparametric Multivariate Standardized Drought Index (NMSDI), and the Parametric Multivariate Standardized Drought Index (PMSDI). These indices were determined using water balance components, including streamflow and soil water content, from the Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model, and evapotranspiration data from the Surface Energy Balance Algorithm for Land (SEBAL). The findings indicate that the methodology effectively identified variations in water dynamics and drought periods in a headwater basin within Brazil's semiarid region, suggesting potential applicability in other semiarid areas. This study provides essential insights for water resource management and resilience building in the face of adverse climatic events, offering a valuable guide for decision-making processes.

A combined stability function to quantify flood risks to pedestrians and vehicle occupants

With the increase of the frequency and severity of flooding events, coupled with population growth, the risks posed to people from flooding is ever more apparent. This paper proposes a methodology to examine the risks posed to vehicles' occupants and pedestrians simultaneously in an urban context. Through considering stability functions of a range of vehicle types and pedestrian, a risk assessment profile for a vehicle occupant was derived. Using a historical 1-in-20-year rainfall flood event that took place in the city of Exeter (UK) in 2014, and a synthetic 1 in 100-year rainfall flood event, the potential risks posed to vehicle occupants were analysed. The results showed that for these events the potential risks posed to people travelling by car and caught in flood waters were likely to be more severe if they were to remain within their vehicles than if they were to exit said vehicles. Analysis of the changes in risk over time further revealed that if a vehicle was to become immobilised in flood water, they would only have a short timeframe (~10 min) before the level of risk increases. This is a critical finding, highlighting that remaining inside an immobilised vehicle during flood event and waiting for assistance may increase the level the risk the individual is exposed to, with the results showing the significance of such studies in reducing the risk of flooding to people.

"One community at a time": promoting community resilience in the face of natural hazards and public health challenges

BACKGROUND

Resilience is vital for facing natural disasters and public health challenges. Despite the significance of resilience-building activities, there is a scarcity of locally-tailored planning and response strategies, leaving communities incapable of addressing the unique challenges posed by natural disasters and public health crises. This study aims to explore how the "One Community at a Time" approach enhances community resilience in facing natural hazards and public health challenges.

METHODS

A systematic review was conducted over journal articles published from January 2001 to April 2023 through PRISMA approach. Multiple databases such as Web of Science and Scopus were thoroughly searched. We used independent screening by two researchers and painstaking data extraction using standardized forms. This approach was adopted to assure the reliability, validity, and precision of our study selection and analysis. The included studies' quality was evaluated by the Mixed Methods Appraisal Tool.

RESULTS

In the evaluation, 35 studies were deemed eligible for inclusion and underwent in-depth examination. Several major components of "One Community at a Time" have been identified, including social capital and networks, local knowledge and learning, effective governance and leadership, preparedness and response capacity, and adaptive infrastructure and resources. This framework highlights the significance of individualized approaches to resilience-building initiatives, recognizing that each community has specific strengths, needs, and challenges.

CONCLUSION

Relevant stakeholders can adapt suitable resilient strategies to help prepare and recover from natural hazards and public health challenges. By adopting a localized strategy, stakeholders can collaborate to develop a culture of readiness and resilience, ultimately leading to more sustainable and resilient communities. This framework advises community-based groups, local government, and other stakeholders on prioritizing partnerships, preparedness planning, community participation, and leadership as essential components of creating and maintaining resilience. "One Community at a Time" framework offers practical guidance for community-based organizations, local government, and other stakeholders to prioritize partnerships, preparedness planning, community participation, and leadership as essential components of creating and sustaining resilience.

Learning inter-annual flood loss risk models from historical flood insurance claims

Flooding is a natural hazard that causes substantial loss of lives and livelihoods worldwide. Developing predictive models for flood-induced financial losses is crucial for applications such as insurance underwriting. This research uses the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) dataset between 2000 and 2020 to evaluate the predictive skill of past data in predicting near-future flood loss risk. Our approach applies neural networks (Conditional Generative Adversarial Networks), decision trees (Extreme Gradient Boosting), and kernel-based regressors (Gaussian Processes) to estimate pointwise losses. It aggregates them over intervals using a bias-corrected Burr-Pareto distribution to predict risk. The regression models help identify the most informative predictors and highlight crucial factors influencing flood-related financial losses. Applying our approach to quantify the county-level coastal flood loss risk in eight US Southern states results in an R2=0.807, substantially outperforming related work using stage-damage curves. More detailed testing on 11 counties with significant claims in the NFIP dataset reveals that Extreme Gradient Boosting yields the most favorable results, and bias correction significantly improves the similarity between the predicted and reference claim amount distributions. Our experiments also show that, despite the already experienced climate change, the difference in future short-term risk predictions of flood-loss amounts between historical shifting or expanding training data windows is insignificant.

Satellite forecasting of crop harvest can trigger a cross-hemispheric production response and improve global food security

Global food security is increasingly threatened by climate change and regional human conflicts. Abnormal fluctuations in crop production in major exporting countries can cause volatility in food prices and household consumption in importing countries. Here we show that timely forecasting of crop harvest from satellite data over major exporting regions can trigger production response in the opposite hemisphere to offset the short-term fluctuations and stabilize global food supply. Satellite forecasting can reduce the fluctuation extents of country-level prices by 1.1 to 12.5 percentage points for anticipated wheat shortage or surplus in Russia and Ukraine, and even reverse the price shock in importing countries for anticipated soybean shortage in Brazil. Our research demonstrates that by leveraging the seasonal lags in crop calendars between the Northern and Southern Hemispheres, operational crop monitoring from satellite data can provide a mechanism to improve global food security.

Social vulnerability, impacts and adaptations strategies in the face of natural hazards: insight from riverine islands of Bangladesh

BACKGROUND

Bangladesh is one of the countries at risk of natural disasters due to climate change. In particular, inhabitants of its riverine islands (char) confront ongoing climatic events that heighten their vulnerability. This study aims to assess social vulnerability, impacts, and adaptation strategies to climate change in the riverine island areas of Bangladesh.

METHODS

A mixed-method approach incorporating qualitative and quantitative procedures was used on data collected from 180 households of riverine islands in Gaibandha, Bangladesh. The social vulnerability of riverine island communities was assessed based on their adaptation capacity, sensitivity, and exposure to climatic stressors.

RESULTS

The findings show that char dwellers' vulnerability, impacts, and adaptation capability to climate change vary significantly depending on their proximity to the mainland. Social vulnerability factors such as geographical location, fragile and low-grade housing conditions, illiteracy and displacement, climate-sensitive occupation and low-income level, and so on caused to the in-height vulnerability level of these particular areas. This study also displays that climate change and its associated hazards cause severe life and livelihood concerns for almost all households. In this case, the riverine dwellers employed several adaptation strategies to enhance their way of life to the disaster brought on changing climate. However, low education facilities, deficiency of useful information on climate change, poor infrastructure, and shortage of money are still the supreme hindrance to the sustainability of adaptation.

CONCLUSION

The findings underscore the importance of evaluating the susceptibility of local areas to climate change and emphasize the need for tailored local initiatives and policies to reduce vulnerability and enhance adaptability in communities residing in char households.

Learning from history of natural disasters in the Sahel: a comprehensive analysis and lessons for future resilience

One of the first environmental crises to attract interest in development initiatives and aid was the great drought of the 1970s in the Sahel. This study investigates the extent of damage caused by natural disasters from one of the most widely used databases-EM-DAT-with a sample size of 16 Sahelian countries over the period 1960-2020. These countries have been divided into three regions: Western Africa Sahel (WAS), Central Africa Sahel (CAS), and Eastern Africa Sahel (EAS). The analyses encompass four categories of natural hazards, namely, biological, climatological, hydrological, and meteorological. We used descriptive and test statistics to summarize the natural disaster records. Through this approach, we explore tendencies to identify the most frequently reported natural hazards; we examine their spatial distribution and evaluate their impacts in terms of socioeconomic damage and causalities. During the study period, a total of 1000 events were recorded in the database. The Western Africa Sahel (WAS) region had the highest number of disasters, with 476 events, followed by the Eastern Africa Sahel (EAS) region with 369 events. The most common hazards in the Sahel were hydrological (41.8%), mainly floods, and biological (39.5%) hazards. Approximately 300 million people in the Sahel were affected by natural hazards, with 59.17% in EAS, 36.48% in WAS, and 4.35% in CAS. Although droughts occurred less frequently (14%), they had a significant impact on the population, affecting 84% of those affected by natural hazards. In general, EAS experiences a higher impact from natural hazards, potentially influenced by the pastoral lifestyle of its population. However, WAS is also very vulnerable to natural hazards especially epidemics and nowadays floods. The uncontrolled urbanization in the area may contribute to this vulnerability.

Assessing coastal vulnerability and land use to sea level rise in Jeddah province, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia

Sea level rise is one of the most serious outcomes of increasing temperatures, leading to coastal flooding, beach erosion, freshwater contamination, loss of coastal habitats, increased soil salinity, and risk of damage to coastal infrastructures. This study estimates the vulnerability to inundation for 2100 in coastal zones in Jeddah Province, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, under various sea level rise (SLR) scenarios of 1, 2, 5, and 10 m. The predicted flooding was estimated using a combination of factors, including SLR, the bathtub model, digital elevation model, climate scenarios, and land use and land cover. The climate scenarios used were Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios 1.9, 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5. The results of the SLR scenarios of 1, 2, 5, and 10 m revealed that 1.6, 4.7, 14.9, and 30.6% (or 88, 214, 679, 1398 km2) of the study area's coast could be classified as inundated areas. The various SLR scenarios can inundate 3.3 to 34% of the road area/length. The inundated built-up and road areas were estimated to range between 0.31 and 0.79 km2, accounting respectively for 1.18 to 3.01% of the total class areas for 1-meter and 2-meter SLR scenarios. In contrast, the inundated area will be significant in the situation of 5 and 10 m SLR scenarios. Regarding the case of a 10-meter SLR scenario, the inundation will negatively impact the built-up and road infrastructure areas, inundating 8.9 km2, with industrial infrastructures affected by inundation estimated at 0.21 km2, followed by green space infrastructures at 0.013 km2. The spatial information based on various SLR scenario impact mapping for Jeddah Province can be highly valuable for decision-makers to better plan future civil engineering structures within the framework of sustainable development.

Extreme stratospheric wave activity as harbingers of cold events over North America

Extreme cold events over North America such as the February 2021 cold wave have been suggested to be linked to stratospheric polar vortex stretching. However, it is not resolved how robustly and on which timescales the stratosphere contributes to the surface anomalies. Here we introduce a simple measure of stratospheric wave activity for reanalyses and model outputs. In contrast to the well-known surface influences of sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs) that increase the intraseasonal persistence of weather regimes, we show that extreme stratospheric wave events are accompanied by intraseasonal fluctuations between warm and cold spells over North America in observations and climate models. Particularly, strong stratospheric wave events are followed by an increased risk of cold extremes over North America 5-25 days later. Idealized simulations in an atmospheric model with a well-resolved stratosphere corroborate that strong stratospheric wave activity precedes North American cold spells through vertical wave coupling. These findings potentially benefit the predictability of high-impact winter cold extremes over North America.

Preconditioning the 2023 Kahramanmaraş (Türkiye) earthquake disaster

The 2023 Kahramanmaraş earthquakes occurred on active faults that were known to be a high seismic hazard, yet the devastating impacts of these earthquakes show that the risk was not adequately considered. Vulnerabilities arising from exposure, corruption and poverty led to a lack of seismic preparedness which amplified the earthquake risk into a tragic disaster.

Mental health of vulnerable groups experiencing a drought or bushfire: A systematic review

Natural hazards are increasing because of climate change, and they disproportionately affect vulnerable populations. Prior reviews of the mental health consequences of natural hazard events have not focused on the particular experiences of vulnerable groups. Based on the expected increase in fires and droughts in the coming years, the aim of this systematic review is to synthesize the global evidence about the mental health of vulnerable populations after experiencing natural hazards. We searched databases such as Ovid MEDLINE, EMBASE, CINAHL and Ovid PsycInfo using a systematic strategy, which yielded 3,401 publications. We identified 18 eligible studies conducted in five different countries with 15,959 participants. The most common vulnerabilities were living in a rural area, occupying a low socioeconomic position, being a member of an ethnic minority and having a medical condition. Common experiences reported by vulnerable individuals affected by drought included worry, hopelessness, isolation and suicidal thoughts and behaviors. Those affected by fire reported experiencing posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) and anger. These mental health problems exacerbated existing health and socioeconomic challenges. The evidence base about mental health in vulnerable communities affected by natural hazards can be improved by including standardized measures and comparison groups, examining the role of intersectional vulnerabilities, and disaggregating data routinely to allow for analyses of the particular experiences of vulnerable communities. Such efforts will help ensure that programs are informed by an understanding of the unique needs of these communities.

Spatial spillover effects of natural hazards on energy technology innovation-empirical evidence from provincial panel data

Energy technology innovation is the necessary way and fundamental means to lead, promote, and support the revolution of energy production and consumption. While natural hazards, as an unavoidable external risk in the long-term development of human society, may affect the regional energy innovation level. In this study, we use the SDM bifixed model to investigate the direct, indirect, and aggregate effects of natural hazards on energy technology innovation for data of 31 provinces in China from 2011 to 2020. Results indicate that (1) Natural hazards not only have a significant negative impact on local energy technology innovation, but also inhibit energy technology innovation in neighboring regions, with significant spatial spillover effects. (2) Natural hazards have a more pronounced effect in western cities. (3) Natural hazards can enhance energy technology innovation through increasing environmental regulation and reducing FDI. Our study offers suggestions for strengthening post-natural disaster reconstruction and sub-regional resilience to disaster shocks, improving environmental regulation laws and regulations, and attracting more foreign direct investment.

Shifts in flood generation processes exacerbate regional flood anomalies in Europe

Anomalies in the frequency of river floods, i.e., flood-rich or -poor periods, cause biases in flood risk estimates and thus make climate adaptation measures less efficient. While observations have recently confirmed the presence of flood anomalies in Europe, their exact causes are not clear. Here we analyse streamflow and climate observations during 1960-2010 to show that shifts in flood generation processes contribute more to the occurrence of regional flood anomalies than changes in extreme rainfall. A shift from rain on dry soil to rain on wet soil events by 5% increased the frequency of flood-rich periods in the Atlantic region, and an opposite shift in the Mediterranean region increased the frequency of flood-poor periods, but will likely make singular extreme floods occur more often. Flood anomalies driven by changing flood generation processes in Europe may further intensify in a warming climate and should be considered in flood estimation and management.

Quantifying the physical processes leading to atmospheric hot extremes at a global scale

Heat waves are among the deadliest climate hazards. Yet the relative importance of the physical processes causing their near-surface temperature anomalies (𝑇')-advection of air from climatologically warmer regions, adiabatic warming in subsiding air and diabatic heating-is still a matter of debate. Here we quantify the importance of these processes by evaluating the 𝑇' budget along air-parcel backward trajectories. We first show that the extreme near-surface 𝑇' during the June 2021 heat wave in western North America was produced primarily by diabatic heating and, to a smaller extent, by adiabatic warming. Systematically decomposing 𝑇' during the hottest days of each year (TX1day events) in 1979-2020 globally, we find strong geographical variations with a dominance of advection over mid-latitude oceans, adiabatic warming near mountain ranges and diabatic heating over tropical and subtropical land masses. In many regions, however, TX1day events arise from a combination of these processes. In the global mean, TX1day anomalies form along trajectories over roughly 60 h and 1,000 km, although with large regional variability. This study thus reveals inherently non-local and regionally distinct formation pathways of hot extremes, quantifies the crucial factors determining their magnitude and enables new quantitative ways of climate model evaluation regarding hot extremes.

How path dependency manifests in flood risk management: observations from four decades in the Ennstal and Aist catchments in Austria

Path dependency occurs when a contingent event predetermines what further steps can be taken and self-reinforcing mechanisms lock-in any further development on a sub-optimal trajectory. Path dependency is a prominent concept in the adaptation pathways literature, but insufficiently defined and operationalised. The present paper empirically tracks all constitutive elements of path dependency for four decades of flood risk management (FRM) in two alpine mountain regions in Austria, the Ennstal and Aist river catchments, using a mixed-methods approach. FRM governance has a critical role whether decisions lead to path dependency. Lock-in manifests not just in technical structures, but also in inertia of incumbent actor coalitions and management paradigms. Sub-optimality is hard to assess for lack of clearly defined protection targets; however, it appears in the ways that structural measures are implemented-too little, too late or with negative impacts on nature conservation. Past floods do not qualify as contingent events, as they have not fundamentally changed FRM practice. By contrast, technological and institutional shifts over longer periods, such as digital hazard maps and EU directives, have gradually reoriented FRM strategies. Institution-based self-reinforcing mechanisms are more prevalent than technology-based self-reinforcing mechanisms. Established actor coalitions combined with institutional density illustrate how those in charge uphold a path to defend their position, power and resources. Our recommendations for how to overcome path dependency in FRM governance are: encourage niche experiments, link FRM more closely with climate change adaptation, revise the national policy framework towards polycentric governance approaches and improve professional training.

The Great 2011 Thailand flood disaster revisited: Could it have been mitigated by different dam operations based on better weather forecasts?

This paper revisits the 2011 Great Flood in central Thailand to answer one of the hotly debated questions at the time "Could the operation decisions of the flood control structures substantially mitigate the flood impacts in the downstream areas?". Using a numerical modeling approach, we develop a hypothesis such that the two upstream dam reservoirs: Bhumibol and Sirikit had more accurately forecasted the typhoon-triggered abnormal rainfall volumes and released more water earlier to save the storage capacity via 17 different scenarios or alternative operation schemes. We subsequently quantify the potential improvements, or reduced flood impacts in the downstream catchments, solely by changing the operation schemes of these two dam reservoirs, with all other conditions remaining unchanged. We observed that changing the operation schemes could have reduced only the flood depth while offering very limited improvements in terms of inundated areas for the lower Chao Phraya River Basin. Among 17 scenarios simulated, the inundated areas could have been reduced at most by 3.68%. This result justifies the limited role of these mega structures in the upstream during the disaster on one hand, while pointing to the necessity of handling local rainfall differently on the other. The paper expands the discussion into how the government of Thailand has drawn the lessons from the 2011 flood to better prepare themselves against the lurking flood risk in 2021, also triggered by tropical cyclones. The highlighted initiatives, both technical and institutional, could have provided important references for the large river catchment managers in Southeast Asia and with implications of our method beyond the present application region.

Conversion strategy builds supply chain resilience during the COVID-19 pandemic: A typology and research directions

This study proposes a novel typology of adaptation to hazards-a conversion strategy as a countermeasure to manage risks in interconnected supply chains. Conversion strategies are intended to transform one or multiple supply chain functions for a different one to manage the changing environment. Supply chain disruptions due to natural hazards have been researched in key manufacturing-based economies like Thailand, the US, Japan, and China. Limited studies, however, have looked at the nature of interconnected risks and its effective countermeasures that arise when the COVID-19 pandemic disrupt supply chains. Here, we examine systemic risks by contrasting supply chain disruptions caused by natural hazards and the pandemic. Our study investigates whether businesses can manage systemic risks brought on by the pandemic by learning from dealing with disruptions caused by natural hazards. We offer a typology of conversion strategies to demonstrate how conversion strategies can be a successful response to pandemic scenarios. Specifically, we propose six conversion types: production location, production line, storage, usage, distributional channel, and workforce skill set. Then, we conclude with the future research directions as well as the kinds of policy supports required to assist businesses in implementing conversion measures by drawing on prior work addressing natural hazards.

Natural hazard insurance outcomes at national, regional and local scales: A comparison between Sweden and Portugal

This study addresses the role of natural hazard insurance in two European countries with different insurance markets and socioeconomic conditions: Sweden and Portugal. The analyses were conducted at the national, regional (Southern Sweden and Lisbon Metropolitan Area - LMA), and local (Malmö and Lisbon cities) scales. Most damage caused by weather and climate-related (WCR) hazards during the 1980-2019 period was not covered by insurance companies in Sweden (71%) and Portugal (91%). An insurance affordability analysis was performed using income for the national and regional scales. Unaffordability is higher in Southern Sweden than in LMA, implying that better socioeconomic conditions do not necessarily mean a higher average capacity to pay for insurance. At the local scale, urban flooding was analysed for Malmö (1996-2019) and Lisbon (2000-2011) using insurance databases, in which the most relevant 21st century rainfall events for each city are included (2014 and 2008, respectively). The influence of terrain features on flooding claims and payouts was determined using Geographic Information Systems (GIS) spatial analyses. The flat Malmö favours ponding and extensive flooding, while the distance to the drainage network and flow accumulation are key factors to promote flooding along valley bottoms in the hilly Lisbon. Flooding hotspots tend to result from a combination of higher depths/lower velocities (accumulation of floodwaters and ponding) and not from a pattern of lower depths/higher velocities (shallow overland flow). More detailed data on insurance, flooding, and socioeconomic conditions, at regional and mainly local scales, is needed to improve affordability and urban flooding risk assessments.

Exploring the raison d'etre behind metric selection in network analysis: a systematic review

Network analysis is a useful tool to analyse the interactions and structure of graphs that represent the relationships among entities, such as sectors within an urban system. Connecting entities in this way is vital in understanding the complexity of the modern world, and how to navigate these complexities during an event. However, the field of network analysis has grown rapidly since the 1970s to produce a vast array of available metrics that describe different graph properties. This diversity allows network analysis to be applied across myriad research domains and contexts, however widespread applications have produced polysemic metrics. Challenges arise in identifying which method of network analysis to adopt, which metrics to choose, and how many are suitable. This paper undertakes a structured review of literature to provide clarity on raison d'etre behind metric selection and suggests a way forward for applied network analysis. It is essential that future studies explicitly report the rationale behind metric choice and describe how the mathematics relates to target concepts and themes. An exploratory metric analysis is an important step in identifying the most important metrics and understanding redundant ones. Finally, where applicable, one should select an optimal number of metrics that describe the network both locally and globally, so as to understand the interactions and structure as holistically as possible.

SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s41109-022-00476-w.

The "karma" of impact on the Earth: will humans take responsibility? Evidence of energy consumption and CO2 emissions

Energy consumption and CO₂ emissions are agreed as the main causes of global warming and climate change, which are causing several extreme weather events in recent decades. However, there is little understanding how humans adjust their behaviours in energy consumption and emissions in responding to these natural threats. This study aims to examine the influences of exposure, susceptibility, and vulnerability to five natural hazards on CO₂ emissions, energy intensity, renewable energy, and electricity consumption. The feasible generalized least squares model and several panel estimates are applied for a global sample of 161 countries from 2011 to 2018. The empirical results provide interesting findings. First, exposure, susceptibility, and vulnerability appear to reduce electricity usage, renewable energy consumption, energy intensity, and CO₂ emissions in the global sample. Second, the negative effects of exposure, susceptibility, and vulnerability are consistent across four income groups (high-income; upper-middle-income; lower-middle-income; and low-income) except for some interesting differences. Exposure appears to increase renewable energy consumption significantly in upper-middle and high-income, while susceptibility has a significant positive influence on renewable energy consumption in low-, upper-middle, and high-income. Third, the negative impact is also documented in seven regions, with the exception of some interesting findings: threats from nature appear to increase CO₂ emissions and energy intensity in the Middle East and North Africa, South Asia, and Europe and Central Asia, while they stimulate the use of renewable energy in Latin America and Caribbean. Interestingly, exposure and susceptibility appear to induce renewable energy transformation in Europe and Central Asia.

Climate extremes related with rainfall in the State of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil: a review of climatological characteristics and recorded trends

This paper presents a synthesis of the main characteristics of precipitation in the State of Rio de Janeiro (Brazil) based on extreme rainfall indicators. Daily precipitation data are derived from 56 rainfall stations during the second half of the twentieth century and the 2000s. Eight indices related to extreme precipitation were analyzed. The Mann-Kendall nonparametric test and the Sen's Curvature were employed to evaluate the significance and magnitude of trends. The primary climatological aspects and identified trends throughout the last decades are discussed, besides the hydrometeorological impacts associated with them. Lower values of annual total precipitation are recorded in northern Rio de Janeiro (around 800 mm) and higher in the southern State (up to 2,200 mm). The Serra do Mar affects the frequency of heavy precipitation, and the areas near the sea and high relief present the highest values of consecutive days with expressive rainfall (more than 150 mm in 5 days). These areas also showed a high concentration of flood and landslides events. Most of Rio de Janeiro exhibits precipitation intensity of about 13 mm/day. The maximum number of consecutive dry days shows a gradient from the coast (about 30 days) to the State's interior (around 50 days). Regarding trends, there is a growth of accumulated extreme precipitation in various stations near the ocean. The extreme rainfall in 24 h displays an increase in most Rio de Janeiro (+ 1 to + 5 mm/decade). The consecutive dry and rainy days present similar signs of decreasing trends, suggesting irregularly distributed precipitation in the State. This study is especially relevant for decision-makers who need detailed information in the short and long term to prevent natural hazards like floods and landslides and the related impacts in the environmental and socioeconomic sectors of the Rio de Janeiro.

Prioritization of hazards for risk and resilience management through elicitation of expert judgement

Risk assessment in communities or regions typically relies on the determination of hazard scenarios and an evaluation of their impact on local systems and structures. One of the challenges of risk assessment for infrastructure operators is how to identify the most critical scenarios that are likely to represent unacceptable risks to such assets in a given time frame. This study develops a novel approach for prioritizing hazards for the risk assessment of infrastructure. Central to the proposed methodology is an expert elicitation technique termed paired comparison which is based on a formal mathematical technique for quantifying the range and variance in the judgements of a group of stakeholders. The methodology is applied here to identify and rank natural and operational hazard scenarios that could cause serious disruption or have disastrous effects to the infrastructure in the transnational Øresund region over a period of 5 years. The application highlighted substantial divergences of views among the stakeholders on identifying a single 'most critical' natural or operational hazard scenario. Despite these differences, it was possible to flag up certain cases as critical among the natural hazard scenarios, and others among the operational hazards.

Modelling and quantifying tomorrow's risks from natural hazards

Understanding and modelling future risks from natural hazards is becoming increasingly crucial as the climate changes, human population grows, asset wealth accumulates, and societies become more urbanised and interconnected. This need is recognised by the 2015-2030 Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction, which emphasises the importance of preparing for the disasters that our world may face tomorrow through strategies/policies that aim to minimise uncontrolled development in hazardous areas. While the vast majority of natural-hazard risk-assessment frameworks have so far focused on static impacts associated with current conditions and/or are influenced by historical context, some authors have sought to provide decision makers with risk-quantification approaches that can be used to cultivate a sustainable future. This Review documents these latter efforts, explicitly examining work that has modelled and quantified the individual components that comprise tomorrow's risk, i.e., future natural hazards affected by climate change, future exposure (e.g., in terms of population, land use, and the built environment), and the evolving physical vulnerabilities of the world's infrastructure. We end with a discussion on the challenges faced by modellers in determining the risks that tomorrow's world may face from natural hazards, and the constraints these place on the decision-making abilities of relevant stakeholders.

Natural hazards compound COVID-19 impacts on small businesses disproportionately for historically underrepresented group operators

In the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic small businesses made headlines as hard hit by customer losses, revenue declines, and business closures. Yet, the impacts have been felt disproportionately by small businesses that suffered interruption due to pre-existing socioeconomic stressors and/or concurrent natural hazards experienced during the pandemic. To illuminate those compound impacts, we conducted a survey of over 1350 U S.-based small businesses. Our findings indicate that those businesses that experienced concurrent natural hazards during the pandemic were associated with relatively greater negative impacts. But importantly, enterprises that are historically underrepresented group operated (HUGO)-minority, women, and veteran-operated businesses- saw largely amplified negative impacts from COVID-19. In terms of the magnitude of COVID-19 impacts, the effect size of belonging to HUGO was more than twice as large as the effect size of experiencing a concurrent natural hazard during the pandemic. These results provide evidence for the disproportionate impacts that HUGOs face due to the pandemic, which are exacerbated when compounded by natural hazards. Given these results, there is evidence that the opportunity gap between HUGO and non-HUGO businesses is significant ahead of additional stressors or shocks. This opportunity gap is further accelerated when compounded with other events, here the compounding of natural hazards and COVID-19. Additional interventions need to be offered to HUGO businesses in areas with high likelihood of overlapping incidents. Further work is required to address social inequity and economic fragility of HUGO businesses, especially those that face the complexity of additional shocks, such as natural hazards.

Individual risk evaluation for landslides: key details

Risk-taking is an essential part of life. As individuals, we evaluate risks intuitively and often subconsciously by comparing the perceived risks with expected benefits. We do this so commonly that it passes unnoticed, like when we decide to speed home from work or go for a swim. The comparison changes, however, when one entity (such as a government) imposes a risk evaluation on another person. For example, in a quantitative risk management framework, the estimated risk is compared with a tolerable risk threshold to decide if the person is 'safe enough'. Landslide risk management methods are well established and there is consensus on tolerable life-loss risk thresholds. However, beneath this consensus lie several key details that are explored by this article, along with suggestions for refinement. Specifically, we suggest using the risk unit, micromort (one micromort equals a life loss risk of 1 in 1 million), in describing risk estimates and thresholds, to improve risk communication. For risk estimation, we provide guidance for defining and combining landslide scenarios and for recognizing where unquantified risk from low-probability/high-consequence scenarios ought to inform risk management decisions. For risk tolerance thresholds, we highlight the pitfalls of selecting unachievably low thresholds and suggest that there is no single universal threshold. Additionally, we argue that gross disproportion between costs and benefits of further risk reduction, which is integral to the As Low As Reasonably Practicable (ALARP) principle, is a commonly unachievable and counter-productive condition for risk tolerance, and other conditions centered on proportionality often apply. Finally, we provide several figures that can be used as risk communication tools, to provide context for risk estimates and risk tolerance thresholds when these values are reported to decision makers and the public.

A review of graphical methods to map the natural hazard-to-wellbeing risk chain in a socio-ecological system

The popular concept of wellbeing has added multiple dimensions to the current socio-economic measures of vulnerability from natural hazards. Due to the wellbeing concept's relevance in various policy agendas, there is a need for a stronger integration of what is predominantly a socio-economic concept into the natural hazards space. Graphical methods have been used as transdisciplinary engagement tools to translate verbal descriptions of socio-ecological systems into simulation models able to test hypotheses. The purpose of this article is to identify the graphical methods that have been used in the literature to graphically represent, structure and model different segments of the hazard risk chain. A thorough review of the literature on natural hazards was performed using a set of keywords and filters that resulted in a total of 94 articles, which were then categorised based on the graphical methods used, broad families, properties, hazard types, and segments along the risk chain considered. A case study on volcanic hazards in Mount Taranaki, New Zealand showcased ways forward by conceptually combining methods to link hazards to impacts on wellbeing. Out of the review it was identified that the most widely used methodologies in the natural hazards space are probabilistic graphs (e.g. Bayesian networks) representing the random nature of hazards while mapping methods based on System Dynamic principles (SD) (e.g. causal loop diagrams) are used to characterise the dynamically emergent behaviours of socio-economic agents. While studies linking hazards to wellbeing using graphs are scarce, there is a nascent literature on the characterisation of wellbeing's multi-dimensionality using networks and SD diagrams. Hence, the possibilities to use common methods, or combinations of these, are numerous potentially enabling the creation of graph-based, distilled simulation models that can be used by experts from different backgrounds to quantitatively model the wellbeing impacts exerted by natural hazards.

Understanding human vulnerability to climate change: A global perspective on index validation for adaptation planning

Climate change is a severe global threat. Research on climate change and vulnerability to natural hazards has made significant progress over the last decades. Most of the research has been devoted to improving the quality of climate information and hazard data, including exposure to specific phenomena, such as flooding or sea-level rise. Less attention has been given to the assessment of vulnerability and embedded social, economic and historical conditions that foster vulnerability of societies. A number of global vulnerability assessments based on indicators have been developed over the past years. Yet an essential question remains how to validate those assessments at the global scale. This paper examines different options to validate global vulnerability assessments in terms of their internal and external validity, focusing on two global vulnerability indicator systems used in the WorldRiskIndex and the INFORM index. The paper reviews these global index systems as best practices and at the same time presents new analysis and global results that show linkages between the level of vulnerability and disaster outcomes. Both the review and new analysis support each other and help to communicate the validity and the uncertainty of vulnerability assessments. Next to statistical validation methods, we discuss the importance of the appropriate link between indicators, data and the indicandum. We found that mortality per hazard event from floods, drought and storms is 15 times higher for countries ranked as highly vulnerable compared to those classified as low vulnerable. These findings highlight the different starting points of countries in their move towards climate resilient development. Priority should be given not just to those regions that are likely to face more severe climate hazards in the future but also to those confronted with high vulnerability already.

Assessment of impacts to the sequence of the tropical cyclone Nisarga and monsoon events in shoreline changes and vegetation damage in the coastal zone of Maharashtra, India

The tropical cyclones impact both the eastern and western coasts of India, causing severe socio-environmental problems. This study analyzed shoreline changes and vegetation degradation caused by cyclone Nisarga and monsoon events in Maharashtra coastal zone and Mumbai region, India. In this study, the shoreline change was studied using the Net Shoreline Movement (NSM) statistical technique embedded in the digital shoreline analysis system (DSAS) tool. The effects of the cyclone on the vegetation were mapped using the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI), and the rainfall distribution from Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) data. The correlation between rainfall data and vegetation loss was analyzed using geographically weighted regression. The results also show that 90% of the events were concentrated in the 80-300 mm classes, being classified as sudden increases. This cyclone caused erosion in 56.32% of the shoreline; the highest erosion level was observed along the coastal zone of Maharashtra (near Mumbai city). Cyclone Nisarga has also impacted the vegetation loss most prominently in the region, with mean EVI in pre-cyclone equal to 0.4 and post-cyclone equal to 0.2. These eco-physical studies using geospatial technology are needed to understand the behavior of changes in shoreline and vegetation and can also help coastal managers plan for resilient coastal systems after the passage of tropical cyclones.

Flooding trends and their impacts on coastal communities of Western Cape Province, South Africa

Climate change-induced extreme weather events have been at their worst increase in the past decade (2010-2020) across Africa and globally. This has proved disruptive to global socio-economic activities. One of the challenges that has been faced in this regard is the increased coastal flooding of cities. This study examined the trends and impacts of coastal flooding in the Western Cape province of South Africa. Making use of archival climate data and primary data from key informants and field observations, it emerged that there is a statistically significant increase in the frequency of flooding and consequent human and economic losses from such in the coastal cities of the province. Flooding in urban areas of the Western Cape is a factor of human and natural factors ranging from extreme rainfall, usually caused by persistent cut off-lows, midlatitude cyclones, cold fronts and intense storms. Such floods become compounded by poor drainage caused by vegetative overgrowth on waterways and land pollution that can be traced to poor drainage maintenance. Clogging of waterways and drainage systems enhances the risk of flooding. Increased urbanisation, overpopulation in some areas and non-adherence to environmental laws results in both the affluent and poor settling on vulnerable ecosystems. These include coastal areas, estuaries, and waterways, and this worsens the risk of flooding. The study recommends a comprehensive approach to deal with factors that increase the risk of flooding as informed by the provisions of both the Sustainable Development Goals framework and the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015-2030 in a bid to de-risking human settlement in South Africa.

Environment diagnosis for land-use planning based on a tectonic and multidimensional methodology

In this research, emphasis is placed on the information and diagnostic phase of the physical environment for land-use planning (LUP). Our work is mainly focused on a land-planning case study of a tectonic depression, the Tulum Valley, which extends into the Pampean flat-slab segment. We propose the use of tectonic structures to define Environment Units (EUs) as necessary boundaries for the LUP. For this purpose, we have studied tectonic structures using geophysical methods and, subsequently, subjected multiple dimensions of the physical environment in the territory to an exhaustive analysis. Moreover, we have examined the influence of structural geology on water, soils, processes, materials and forms in the landscape. The study revealed the close and significant relationship between the different elements of the physical environment observable on the surface (shape, distribution, appearance, degree of development) and the tectonic structures, which supported the use of this criterion to define EUs. In order to test it, we applied the same methodology in another area of South America, the city of Bucaramanga, where it was possible to define EUs based on tectonics and to also establish comparisons. The methodology proposed for the diagnostic phase based mainly on the tectonic factor represents a challenge as regards its application in other active tectonic zones. Some limitations could arise such as fragmented environmental information from different institutions or the small to non-existent number of tectonic studies available. As a strong point, we find that the method allows achieving a comprehensive study of the environmental setting and thus to propose activities and land uses in each EU according to the real reception capacity of the land. This exhaustive analysis of the physical environment will also help decision-makers to understand and manage the socio-natural risks of the territory where communities develop.

Assessment of the adequacy of mobile applications for disaster reduction

Natural events continue to take a heavy toll on human lives. Added to this are the challenge of dynamic at-risk settings, uncertainty, and increasing threats, which demand holistic, flexible, and quickly adaptable solutions. In this context, mobile applications are strongly emerging as communication tools that can assist in disaster reduction. Yet, these have not been sufficiently evaluated. In view of this, the aim of this research is to evaluate the adequacy of mobile applications in disaster risk reduction in reference to some of the deadliest natural events. To this purpose, a two-part methodology is developed. Firstly, a random sample of applications is evaluated and contrasted with the literature. Secondly, the viability of mobile applications is determined based on the Digital Application Potential Index proposed by the authors, cross-referenced in Geographical Information Systems with the WorldRiskIndex. The results show that most mobile applications limit their coverage range to only one stage of Disaster Risk Management (DRM) and one type of hazard event, failing to address systemic risk and hampering the scale-up of humanitarian response. For these to become adequate and wide-reaching, strong policies to promote reliability, transparency, and citizen empowerment would be required. The policies establishing the use of mobile applications as a viable tool for DRM must consider reducing the prices of internet connectivity while increasing educational levels, on top of language translation. At this point, the adoption of mobile applications is unable to ensure DRM communication, especially in countries with higher-risk levels, requiring these to be complemented with auxiliary tools.

Evaluation of flood risk analyses with AHP, Kriging, and weighted sum models: example of Çapakçur, Yeşilköy, and Yamaç microcatchments

The present study aims to use the Bingol city center and agricultural plain as a base in future flood management plans and scenarios through flood modeling. In accordance with this purpose, the precipitation map of the catchment was prepared using the Kriging method by assigning values, with the Schreiber formula. Then, the slope, aspect, distance to the stream, land use, geology, soil, and precipitation maps were classified according to the analytical hierarchy process, and consistency indices and consistency ratios were calculated; thus, the factors affecting the flood were ranked as precipitation (CI 0.324), distance to the stream (CI 0.207), slope (CI 0.168), geology (CI 0.101), soil (CI 0.091), land use (CI 0.087), and aspect (CI 0.022). In the last step, consistency indices calculated by the AHP method were superposed on the weighted sum method, and then flood risk analysis was performed.

nationwide longitudinal study

BACKGROUND

Although natural disasters can threaten health and well-being, some people show greater resilience to their effects than others. Identifying the characteristics related to resilience has important implications for reducing the health risks in the aftermath of a disaster.

OBJECTIVE

Using the Conservation of Resources Theory as a framework, we study the role of resources in moderating the adverse effects of natural disasters on people's health and coping behaviors.

METHOD

We match 20,658 unique individuals aged 50 or older from the 2012-2016 waves of the Health and Retirement Study to the county-level annual natural hazard data provided by the Federal Emergency Management Agency. Using individual-fixed effect models, we first model whether the experience of natural disasters can predict people's health and coping behaviors. We then explore heterogeneity in such effects by interacting individual- and county-level resilience resources with the number of natural disasters.

RESULTS

The results show that with increased exposure to natural disasters, older adults are more likely to experience difficulties performing instrumental daily activities. They also tend to have fewer overnight hospital stays, higher out-of-pocket medical expenses, and increased alcohol dependency. However, older adults with certain socio-economic characteristics ‒ white, higher education, higher income, and homeownership ‒ are better able than others to mitigate any adverse health effects of natural disasters. One significant community-level resource is a robust healthcare capacity in a county with a high ratio of healthcare practitioners, where older adults are more likely to seek hospital care and have lower alcohol dependency.

CONCLUSIONS

Health resilience can be improved by strengthening community-level healthcare capacity, with a particular focus on residents with lower socio-economic resources. Failing to address healthcare provision inequalities may exacerbate health disparities.

National Hazards Vulnerability and the Remediation, Restoration and Revitalization of Contaminated Sites-1. Superfund

Natural hazards can be prominent and powerful mechanisms that impact the remediation and restoration of contaminated sites and the revitalization of communities associated with these sites. The potential for hazardous material releases following a natural disaster can exacerbate the impact of contaminated sites by causing the release of toxic or hazardous materials and inhibiting the restoration of the site as well as altering the long-term sustainable revitalization of adjacent communities. Disaster-related hazardous releases, particularly in population-dense areas, can create problems as difficult as the original site clean-up. Similarly, exposure of contaminated sites to natural hazards can enhance the probability of future issues associated with the site. This manuscript addresses the co-occurrence of 12 natural hazards (singly and in combination) and individual Superfund sites.

TreeMMoSys: A low cost sensor network to measure wind-induced tree response

Severe storms caused the largest amount of damaged timber in European forests in the past 70 years. Storm damage occurs when wind loads exceed the failure limits of trees. A decisive factor in assessing storm damage is comprehensive knowledge of interactions between the aerial parts of trees and the high-impact airflow. This paper describes the inexpensive multiple sensor system TreeMMoSys that can measure aerial tree parts' wind-induced reactions, including branches and the stem. The output of TreeMMoSys includes acceleration and angular rate data converted to tilt angles in the post-processing. The system consists of a scalable number of light-weight tree response sensors and ground receivers that communicate through a WLAN network. The weatherproofed system is highly portable, reusable, and allows for an efficient monitoring and a maximization of the number of study trees. Due to the stable measurement performance and accuracy of TreeMMoSys, it can be deployed in the field for long-term monitoring of single tree reactions or neighboring trees' reactions to wind excitation.

An experimental investigation of resilience decision making in repeated disasters

Given the growing prevalence of catastrophic events and health epidemics, policymakers are increasingly searching for effective strategies to encourage firms to invest in resilience rather than relying on insurance or government assistance. Too often, however, resilience research focuses on decisions made by firms and emergency planners in the context of "one-off" events. We extend this research by examining resilience decision making in the more realistic context of repeated catastrophic events. Using a population of professional managers of middle market firms and a university experimental economics subject pool, we conduct a series of controlled experiments on the decision to invest in inventories to improve firm resilience to repeated catastrophic events. While existing economic and supply chain resilience research has focused on resilience in terms of avoiding some magnitude of economic losses, existing research omits a focus on the probability of those losses. Controlled experiments can evaluate the influence of probability more effectively than observational data by better controlling for magnitude and more easily accounting for repeated events. We find that decision makers are less likely to make resilience investments when a disaster has recently occurred. We further find that advisory information alone is insufficient to motivate resilience investments by firms. It must be substantiated by a history of advisory accuracy. However, we find that this effect is heavily moderated by the type of advisory information provided; we find that firm managers are much more likely to trust precautionary advice.

A review of mesocosm experiments on heavy metals in marine environment and related issues of emerging concerns

Mesocosms are real-world environmental science tools for bridging the gap between laboratory-scale experiments and actual habitat studies on ecosystem complexities. These experiments are increasingly being applied in understanding the complex impacts of heavy metals, ocean acidification, global warming, and oil spills. The insights of the present review indicate how metals and metal-bound activities impact on various aspects of ecological complexities like prey predator cues, growth, embryonic development, and reproduction. Plankton and benthos are used more often over fish and microbes owing to their smaller size, faster reproduction, amenability, and repeatability during mesocosm experiments. The results of ocean acidification reveal calcification of plankton, corals, alteration of pelagic structures, and plankton blooms. The subtle effect of oil spills is amplified on sediment microorganisms, primary producers, and crustaceans. An overview of the mesocosm designs over the years indicates that gradual changes have evolved in the type, size, design, composition, parameters, methodology employed, and the outputs obtained. Most of the pelagic and benthic mesocosm designs involve consideration of interactions within the water columns, between water and sediments, trophic levels, and nutrient rivalry. Mesocosm structures are built considering physical processes (tidal currents, turbulence, inner cycling of nutrients, thermal stratification, and mixing), biological complexities (population, community, and ecosystem) using appropriate filling containers, and sampling facilities that employ inert materials. The principle of design is easy transportation, mooring, deployment, and free floating structures besides addressing the unique ecosystem-based science problems. The evolution of the mesocosm tools helps in understanding further advancement of techniques and their applications in marine ecosystems.

Data from a survey of the Philippines' local governments on their risk management strategies to natural disasters

This data is from a survey of Local Government Units Disaster Risk Reduction and Management (DRRM) Office in the Philippines. Conducted in 2016-2017, the survey was intended to assess the disaster risk reduction and mitigation programs and policies employed by the local government on types of disaster due to natural hazards. The survey data covers 47 provinces (including Metro Manila) with 193 municipalities and cities. The sampling design followed a multi-stage probability scheme taking into account the high-risk and low-risk disaster areas. This data article describes the framework and design of the survey and highlights the creation of indices and other outcome variables based on the survey. It also provides information on the field operations including data cleaning and processing that may be useful to those undertaking similar surveys. The dataset is in comma-separated values file (.csv) with accompanying data dictionary (.txt). The questionnaire is also included in the data supplementary appendix. This data article is an adjunct to the research article, "Localized disaster risk management index for the Philippines: Is your municipality ready for the next disaster?" Ravago, et al., 2020, where data interpretation and analysis can be found.

Cascades - Mapping the multi-disciplinary landscape in a post-pandemic world

This paper introduces the Special Issue on Cascading Effects in Disaster Risk Management. It reviews the contributions and highlights their multi-disciplinary interpretations of cascades. It proceeds to discuss whether the on-going unfolding of the COVID-19 pandemic illustrates the cascades metaphor.

Modeling risks from natural hazards with generalized additive models for location, scale and shape

We investigate a new framework for estimating the frequency and severity of losses associated with catastrophic risks such as bushfires, storms and floods. We explore generalized additive models for location, scale and shape (GAMLSS) for the quantification of regional risk factors - geographical, weather and climate variables - with the aim of better quantifying the frequency and severity of catastrophic losses from natural perils. Due to the flexibility of the GAMLSS approach, we find a superior fit to empirical loss data for the applied models in comparison to generalized linear regression models typically applied in the literature. In particular the generalized beta distribution of the second kind (GB2) provides a good fit to the severity of losses. Including covariates in the calibration of the scale parameter, we obtain vastly differently shaped distributions for the predicted individual losses at different levels of the covariates. Testing the GAMLSS approach in an out-of-sample validation exercise, we also find support for a correct specification of the estimated models. More accurate models for the losses from natural hazards will help state and local government policy development, in particular for risk management and scenario planning for emergency services with respect to these perils.

Assessment of stability of a Himalayan road cut slope with varying degrees of weathering: A finite-element-model-based approach

Slope stability assessment is essential for safe and sustainable development widely applied in mining, civil, and environmental engineering projects around the world. This study aimed to conduct a stability analysis of a selected Himalayan road cut slope from two different sections, named sections (A) and (B). The strength reduction factor (SRF) based on the finite element method was used to simulate the slope sections using Phase2 software. A mesh pattern of six node triangle elements was used during the numerical simulation. The Mohr-Coulomb parameters and other inputs used in the numerical modelling of the investigated slope were estimated by different geotechnical tests, namely, the direct shear test, density analysis test, rock hardness test, and Brazilian test. The results indicated that the critical SRF of the completely weathered slope profile section (A), with a relatively low overall angle, was found to be 1.25, which is approximately 50% lower than the value obtained in the moderately to highly weathered profile section (B), equal to 2.53. These results are in agreement with other published studies, which revealed that the geometry of a slope influences the weathering grade, which in turn destabilizes the slope. The results of this study will help in engineering slope design considering the influence of weathering.

Challenges in public health and epidemiology research in humanitarian settings: experiences from the field

BACKGROUND

Humanitarian settings often present unique scientific challenges and conditions that distinguish them from standard research settings. While a number of these challenges are faced in both standard settings and humanitarian settings, factors unique to humanitarian settings such as inaccessibility and time sensitivities further exacerbate the effects of these challenges. This analysis focuses on experiences in post-disaster contexts such as Indonesia and India following the 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami, the Philippines following Typhoon Haiyan in 2013, and Nepal following the 2015 earthquake.

DISCUSSION

Particular issues that we faced in undertaking research in post-disaster settings include challenges with uncharted ethical and cultural considerations, non-standardised administrative methods for record keeping, data sharing and dissemination. While these issues are not unique to post-disaster humanitarian settings, the time-sensitive nature of our work exacerbated the effects of these concerns. Relying on local partners and making quick decisions to tackle issues is imperative for navigating both foreseen and unforeseen challenges. While pre-emptive action to address these concerns is the most efficient means to expedite research protocols, adaptability and contingency planning are key components of practical research implementation in dynamic situations.

CONCLUSIONS

Research is not always a priority in humanitarian settings, so innovative methods are necessary to conduct meaningful and situationally appropriate research in these venues. By understanding available resources, local culture, and political considerations and working efficiently and decisively, we can begin to jump hurdles associated with epidemiologic research in humanitarian settings.

More meteorological events that drive compound coastal flooding are projected under climate change

Compound flooding arises from storms causing concurrent extreme meteorological tides (that is the superposition of storm surge and waves) and precipitation. This flooding can severely affect densely populated low-lying coastal areas. Here, combining output from climate and ocean models, we analyse the concurrence probability of the meteorological conditions driving compound flooding. We show that, under a high emissions scenario, the concurrence probability would increase globally by more than 25% by 2100 compared to present. In latitudes above 40o north, compound flooding could become more than 2.5 times as frequent, in contrast to parts of the subtropics where it would weaken. Changes in extreme precipitation and meteorological tides account for most (77% and 20%, respectively) of the projected change in concurrence probability. The evolution of the dependence between precipitation and meteorological tide dominates the uncertainty in the projections. Our results indicate that not accounting for these effects in adaptation planning could leave coastal communities insufficiently protected against flooding.

Rethinking the interplay between affluence and vulnerability to aid climate change adaptive capacity

Affluence and vulnerability are often seen as opposite sides of a coin-with affluence generally understood as reducing forms of vulnerability through increased resilience and adaptive capacity. However, in the context of climate change and an increase in associated hazards and disasters, we suggest the need to re-examine this dynamic relationship-a complex association we define here as the Affluence-Vulnerability Interface (AVI). We review research in different national contexts to show how a more nuanced understanding of the AVI can (a) problematize the notion that increasing material affluence necessarily has a mitigating influence on social vulnerability, (b) extend our analysis of social vulnerability beyond low-income regions to include affluent contexts and (c) improve our understanding of how psychosocial characteristics influence people's vulnerability. Finally, we briefly outline three methodological approaches that we believe will assist future engagement with the AVI.

Estudio de caso. Sector de la sanidad animal frente al huracán «Irma» en Cuba

This case study outlines the actions of Cuba's Veterinary Service, as part of the country's disaster risk reduction and management system, in response to Hurricane Irma. The phenomenon affected ten of Cuba's 15 provinces and caused significant damage in 53 of its municipalities (29.6%). During the response effort, the pre-established measures for the various phases (warning, alert and emergency) were deployed according to the disaster reduction plans for each level. In all provinces, animals were protected by moving them to safer locations, allowing for pre-established sanitary measures and technical assistance. Nonetheless, damage was incurred, mainly to the roofs of some animal housing. The following deaths were recorded: 210,150 poultry, 2,752 cattle (of which 73.8% were calves) and 866 pigs (of which 68% were young animals). In addition, 7% of the inventory of hives was damaged and 3.3% of hives were lost. Damage to infrastructure included: 466 poultry houses, 1,422 cattle houses, 431 pig houses, 1,200 wind pumps and 13 of the country's 17 feed concentrate plants. As no major damage was reported to the Veterinary Service's facilities (laboratories and offices), its viability was guaranteed at all times. Rapid damage assessment enabled priorities for rehabilitation and recovery actions to be set, with the result that, just three months after the hurricane had struck, 67% of the poultry houses and 33% of the pig houses had been restored. This article focuses on preparedness, response and lessons learned.

Assessing sustainable development prospects through remote sensing: A review

The Earth's ecosystems face severe environmental stress from unsustainable socioeconomic development linked to population growth, urbanization, and industrialization. Governments worldwide are interested in sustainability measures to address these issues. Remote sensing allows for the measurement, integration, and presentation of useful information for effective decision-making at various temporal and spatial scales. Scientists and decision-makers have endorsed extensive use of remote sensing to bridge gaps among disciplines and achieve sustainable development. This paper presents an extensive review of remote sensing technology used to support sustainable development efforts, with a focus on natural resource management and assessment of natural hazards. We further explore how remote sensing can be used in a cross-cutting, interdisciplinary manner to support decision-making aimed at addressing sustainable development challenges. Remote sensing technology has improved significantly in terms of sensor resolution, data acquisition time, and accessibility over the past several years. This technology has also been widely applied to address key issues and challenges in sustainability. Furthermore, an evaluation of the suitability and limitations of various satellite-derived indices proposed in the literature for assessing sustainable development goals showed that these older indices still perform reasonably well. Nevertheless, with advancements in sensor radiometry and resolution, they were less exploited and new indices are less explored.

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Effectiveness of remote sensing tools to address sustainability issues.

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Decadal changes in remote sensing research to address various challenges.

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There is a need to explore new indices with the development of new satellite sensors.

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Remote sensing-based information to policymakers for decision making.