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Birkmann J, Jamshed A, McMillan JM, Feldmeyer D, Totin E, Solecki W, Ibrahim ZZ, Roberts D, Kerr RB, Poertner HO, Pelling M, Djalante R, Garschagen M, Leal Filho W, Guha-Sapir D, Alegría A. Understanding human vulnerability to climate change: A global perspective on index validation for adaptation planning. Sci Total Environ 2022; 803:150065. [PMID: 34525713 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.150065] [Citation(s) in RCA: 18] [Impact Index Per Article: 9.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/07/2021] [Revised: 08/27/2021] [Accepted: 08/27/2021] [Indexed: 06/13/2023]
Abstract
Climate change is a severe global threat. Research on climate change and vulnerability to natural hazards has made significant progress over the last decades. Most of the research has been devoted to improving the quality of climate information and hazard data, including exposure to specific phenomena, such as flooding or sea-level rise. Less attention has been given to the assessment of vulnerability and embedded social, economic and historical conditions that foster vulnerability of societies. A number of global vulnerability assessments based on indicators have been developed over the past years. Yet an essential question remains how to validate those assessments at the global scale. This paper examines different options to validate global vulnerability assessments in terms of their internal and external validity, focusing on two global vulnerability indicator systems used in the WorldRiskIndex and the INFORM index. The paper reviews these global index systems as best practices and at the same time presents new analysis and global results that show linkages between the level of vulnerability and disaster outcomes. Both the review and new analysis support each other and help to communicate the validity and the uncertainty of vulnerability assessments. Next to statistical validation methods, we discuss the importance of the appropriate link between indicators, data and the indicandum. We found that mortality per hazard event from floods, drought and storms is 15 times higher for countries ranked as highly vulnerable compared to those classified as low vulnerable. These findings highlight the different starting points of countries in their move towards climate resilient development. Priority should be given not just to those regions that are likely to face more severe climate hazards in the future but also to those confronted with high vulnerability already.
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Affiliation(s)
- Joern Birkmann
- Institute of Spatial and Regional Planning (IREUS), Pfaffenwaldring 7, 70569, University of Stuttgart, Germany.
| | - Ali Jamshed
- Institute of Spatial and Regional Planning (IREUS), Pfaffenwaldring 7, 70569, University of Stuttgart, Germany.
| | - Joanna M McMillan
- Institute of Spatial and Regional Planning (IREUS), Pfaffenwaldring 7, 70569, University of Stuttgart, Germany.
| | - Daniel Feldmeyer
- Institute of Spatial and Regional Planning (IREUS), Pfaffenwaldring 7, 70569, University of Stuttgart, Germany.
| | - Edmond Totin
- Ecole de Foresterie Tropicale, Université Nationale d'Agriculture du Benin, Kétou, Benin.
| | - William Solecki
- City University New York (CUNY), Hunter College, 695 Park Avenue, New York, United States of America.
| | - Zelina Zaiton Ibrahim
- Faculty of Forestry and Environment, Department of Environmental Management, University Putra Malaysia, Serdang, Malaysia.
| | - Debra Roberts
- School of Life Sciences, University of KwaZulu-Natal and eThekwini Municipality, Sustainable and Resilient City Initiatives Unit, Durban, South Africa.
| | - Rachel Bezner Kerr
- Department of Global Development, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY, United States of America.
| | | | - Mark Pelling
- King's Centre for Integrated Research on Risk and Resilience, Department of Geography, King's College London, United Kingdom.
| | - Riyanti Djalante
- United Nations University - Institute for the Advanced Study of Sustainability (UNU-IAS), Tokyo, Japan.
| | - Matthias Garschagen
- Department of Geography, Ludwig-Maximilians-University Munich (LMU), Munich, Germany.
| | - Walter Leal Filho
- Department of Natural Sciences, Manchester Metropolitan University. Oxford Road, Manchester M15 6BH, UK and Hamburg University of Applied Sciences, Research and Transfer Centre "Sustainable Development and Climate Change Management", Ulmenliet 20, D-21033 Hamburg, Germany.
| | - Debarati Guha-Sapir
- Centre for Research On the Epidemiology of Disasters (CRED), Institute of Health and Society (IRSS), Université Catholique de Louvain, Brussels, Belgium.
| | - Andrés Alegría
- IPCC Technical Support Unit, Alfred-Wegener-Institute, Bremen, Germany.
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