Optimization of land use planning under multi-objective demand-the case of Changchun City, China

Modeling and scenario analysis are the core elements of land use change research, and in the face of the increasingly serious ecological and environmental problems in urbanization, it is important to carry out land use simulation studies under different protection constraints for scientific planning and policy formulation. Taking Changchun City, the capital of Jilin Province, a pilot national eco-province, as an example, a CLUE-S model with coupled landscape ecological security patterns was constructed to predict and simulate the land use structure and layout under multi-objective optimization scenarios in the planning target year (2030), and the results were analyzed based on landscape index evaluation. The study found the following: (i) the proportion of ecological land area under low, medium, and high security levels in the study area was 8.7%, 64.8%, and 26.5%, respectively; (ii) under the current development trend scenario, the trend of increasing fragmentation of cultivated land patches in Changchun in 2030 will remain unchanged, with construction land spreading along the periphery in a compact and continuous pattern, while ecological land will be seriously encroached upon; and (iii) in the 2030 multi-objective optimization scenario, land use patches of all types will begin to show a tendency to cluster, with less landscape fragmentation and more connectivity, while cultivated land and construction land will also begin to converge and do not deteriorate as a result of spatial conflicts over ecological land.

Coupling optimization with territorial LCA to support agricultural land-use planning

The life cycle assessment framework was adapted to the territorial level (the "territorial LCA") to assess the environmental impacts and services of land-use planning scenarios. Given the various geographical conditions of the territory, the potential alternatives of land-use scenarios could be enormous. To prevent the iterative process of proposing and comparing alternative scenarios, this work aims to move one step further to automatically generate optimal planning scenarios by linking the novel territorial LCA with multi-objective optimization (MOO). A fuzzy optimization approach is adopted to deal with the trade-offs among objectives and to generate optimized scenarios, minimizing the environmental damages and maximizing the satisfaction level of the desired land-use functions subjected to constraints such as area availability and demand. Geographical Information System (GIS) is employed to manipulate geographic datasets for spatial assessment. An illustrative case study tests the novel integrated method (the territorial LCA, MOO, and GIS) on its ability to propose optimal land-use planning for bioenergy production in a region in Belgium. The study results reveal the competition of land uses for different energy products, the trade-offs among impact categories, and potential impacts on other territories if implementing optimal land planning for the territory under study. The optimization outcomes can help decision-making on the optimal locations for different crop types (i.e., miscanthus, willow, and maize in the case study) and utilizations (i.e., electricity, heat, biogas, and bioethanol in this study) complying with the objectives and constraints. This integrated tool holds the potential to assist policymakers when deciding on how to use the territory facing the global context of increasing demands for multiple uses of bio-based products, such as for food, feed, fuel, fiber, and chemicals. Limitations of the current method and its potential for real-world applications are discussed, such as expanding the scope to include life cycle sustainability assessment and taking farmers' behavior and crop rotation into account.

Research and development of field theory-based three-dimensional risk assessment. Part II: Regional overall risk

For three-dimensional (3D) risk assessments, the scalar fields of risk can be clarified so that the risk value at any point in 3D space can be obtained. Notably, the 3D risk function can be used to calculate the surface integral to reveal the overall risk level in a certain area. As a result, a novel field theory-based 3D risk assessment method called the regional overall risk assessment (RORA) is proposed in this study. The regional overall risk (ROR) is introduced to describe the overall risk level of the assessed area. The corresponding definition and algorithm of the ROR are determined. The selection rule of the surfaces, which are used to create the surface integrals and compute the ROR, is also provided and discussed. To demonstrate the effectiveness of the RORA, the 3D risk caused by biomass gasification stations is utilized to conduct a case study. For the assessed area (Huangtukan Village and Yanjia Village), values of ROR are 29.5787 and 39.3858, respectively. The results represent accurate overall risk levels of the assessed areas and can provide effective guidance for risk prevention in the assessed areas, including land-use planning and safety planning. Moreover, the validity and availability of the proposed RORA is verified by a sensitivity analysis. The prospects and limitations of the RORA are also analyzed and discussed in this work.

Exploring frame conflicts in the development of a new mineral resource policy in Austria using Q-methodology

Mineral resource policy deals not only with industrial and trade aspects but is nowadays also increasingly concerned with topics such as environmental protection and social development. The tensions associated with strongly divergent opinions among various stakeholder groups cast it as a 'wicked problem'. The process of redeveloping the 'Austrian Mineral Resources Strategy' allows for examination of the different frames and identification of potential frame conflicts in consultation processes at the national level. Using Q-methodology, this paper reveals four frames represented in the Austrian policy design process and unravels conflicts between economy-focused and integrated policy framings. The predominance of the first frame indicates a narrow sectoral approach favouring domestic mineral extraction and economic growth over other means (e.g. international distributional conflicts of benefits and burdens). The article also demonstrates the suitability of Q-methodology as a tool to investigate frames and to improve their understanding in policy design processes.

OECD Case Studies of Integrated Regional and Strategic Impact Assessment: What Does 'Integration' Look Like in Practice?

Increasingly, protocols for assessing the impacts of land-uses and major resource development projects focus not only on environmental impacts, but also social and human health impacts. Regional and Strategic Environmental Assessment (RSEAs) are one innovation that hold promise at better integrating these diverse land-use values into planning, assessment, and decision-making. In this contribution, a realist review methodology is utilized to identify case studies of "integrated RSEA"-those which are strategic, have a regional assessment approach, and seek to integrate environmental, community and health impacts into a singular assessment architecture. The results of a systematic literature review are described and six RSEA-like case studies are identified: Kimberly Browse LNG SEA; HS2 Appraisal of Sustainability; Lisbon International Airport SEA; Beaufort Regional Environmental Assessment; Nordstream 2 Transboundary EIA; and the Portland Harbour Sustainability Project. The case studies are examined according to their unique contexts, mechanisms and outcomes of their assessment protocols to determine the degree to which they consider more than environmental valued components, and the means by which they were included. Findings suggest that RSEA has a contentious relationship with the integration of more than environmental values, but that there are significant lessons to be learned to support project planning, especially for assessment contexts characterized by large, transboundary projects.

Environment diagnosis for land-use planning based on a tectonic and multidimensional methodology

In this research, emphasis is placed on the information and diagnostic phase of the physical environment for land-use planning (LUP). Our work is mainly focused on a land-planning case study of a tectonic depression, the Tulum Valley, which extends into the Pampean flat-slab segment. We propose the use of tectonic structures to define Environment Units (EUs) as necessary boundaries for the LUP. For this purpose, we have studied tectonic structures using geophysical methods and, subsequently, subjected multiple dimensions of the physical environment in the territory to an exhaustive analysis. Moreover, we have examined the influence of structural geology on water, soils, processes, materials and forms in the landscape. The study revealed the close and significant relationship between the different elements of the physical environment observable on the surface (shape, distribution, appearance, degree of development) and the tectonic structures, which supported the use of this criterion to define EUs. In order to test it, we applied the same methodology in another area of South America, the city of Bucaramanga, where it was possible to define EUs based on tectonics and to also establish comparisons. The methodology proposed for the diagnostic phase based mainly on the tectonic factor represents a challenge as regards its application in other active tectonic zones. Some limitations could arise such as fragmented environmental information from different institutions or the small to non-existent number of tectonic studies available. As a strong point, we find that the method allows achieving a comprehensive study of the environmental setting and thus to propose activities and land uses in each EU according to the real reception capacity of the land. This exhaustive analysis of the physical environment will also help decision-makers to understand and manage the socio-natural risks of the territory where communities develop.

Land-use Decisions in Complex Commons: Engaging Multiple Stakeholders through Foresight and Scenario Building in Indonesia

In the midst of global change uncertainties, Indonesian spatial planning authorities are developing 20-year strategies. However, the lack of collaborative engagement of stakeholders and unclear methodology around using futures studies in addressing land management undermine such plans and affect environmental governance. A crucial question is how to link a future-oriented process with governance transformation processes, particularly related to land-use planning and management. To address this issue, we used a co-elaborative scenario-building approach, referred to as participatory prospective analysis (PPA), to facilitate the creation of local multistakeholder platforms considering future-oriented perspectives. The PPA design combines equally the knowledge of local communities, technical experts and decision-makers, and was applied in a series of sequential multistakeholder workshops in two regencies in Indonesia, followed by public consultations on the main results. In both regencies, participants agreed on a common topic related to spatial planning in their jurisdiction to be explored with a 20-year time horizon. They reached consensus on relevant variables, analyzed their dependence/influence, and developed several plausible yet contrasting scenarios for land management and road maps with guidelines for the implementation of desired outcomes. The PPA approach stimulated stakeholder engagement and ensured that more local voices were not only heard but also duly included in the process. It allowed participants to consider strategies that would otherwise have been less readily accepted by their respective organizations. It showed that it is possible to improve existing spatial planning processes in Indonesia by integrating tools for a more inclusive and long-term future-oriented collaborative approach.

Governing Landscapes for Ecosystem Services: A Participatory Land-Use Scenario Development in the Northwest Montane Region of Vietnam

Land-use planning is an important policy instrument for governing landscapes to achieve multifunctionality in rural areas. This paper presents a case study conducted in Na Nhan commune in the northwest montane region of Vietnam to assess land-use strategies toward multiple ecosystem services, through integrated land-use planning. The assessment employed the Land-Use Planning for Multiple Ecosystem Services (LUMENS) framework and a number of methods and tools, including land-use mapping, GIS-based land-use change analysis, survey questionnaire, rapid carbon-stock appraisal for different land uses, qualitative ecosystem services assessment, and a backcasting technique. Our findings suggest that a lack of participation and acknowledgement of customary land-use practices inhibit successful implementation of current land-use planning and relevant policies such as payment for forest environmental services and the nationally determined contributions. The study also confirmed the contributions of forests and the land-use sector in achieving national emission reduction targets, especially when local stakeholders are involved early in the planning process. Other findings with important policy implications are: (i) tree-based land uses such as agroforestry are key to securing multiple ecosystem services and are highly relevant to local stakeholders, yet their potentials were not made explicit in current debates at the local level; (ii) local stakeholders are highly aware of the co-benefits of ecosystem services to climate-change mitigation and this should be considered in nationally determined contributions; and (iii) an approach for integrated, participatory land-use planning can help catalyze stakeholder engagement, and hence improve governance in rural landscapes.

A critical review of decision support systems for brownfield redevelopment

Over the past two decades, many decision support systems (DSSs) have been developed to support decision makers and facilitate the planning and redevelopment process of brownfields. Existing systems are however often siloed in their approach and do not fully capture the complexity of brownfield sites from a sustainable development point of view. This critical review provides an insight into the development and implementation of DSSs, published and emerging, together with assessment of their strengths, limitations and opportunities for future integration. Brownfields DSS applications include: remediation technology selection; and land use planning; and risk assessment. The results of this review lead the authors to identify four opportunities to improve brownfield DSSs: (i) increased use of qualitative socioeconomic criteria, particularly costs and economic variables, (ii) decision-support during the early stages of brownfield redevelopment, (iii) the integration of predictive modelling methods, and (iv) improvements of user interfaces and modern web-based functionalities.

Analysis of spatial planning documents and strategic environmental assessment reports with regard to hazards of major industrial accidents: a case study involving six Polish cities

In the event of an accident in an industrial plant, the damage caused by it can be enormous. There may be environmental contamination in a large area. Injured persons may be both employees of the plant staying on its premises and local residents. The control of major accidents is realised by implementing the procedures regarding: safety analysis, emergency and operational planning, effective land-use planning (LUP), strategic environmental assessment (SEA), environmental impact assessment (EIA) and public consultation. The paper presents findings of a case study aiming to analyse selected spatial planning documents prepared at the municipality and SEA reports accompanying them, with regard to hazards of major industrial accidents in six Polish cities. In addition, changes of relevant Polish legislation taking place from 1995 till now are explained referring to European Union (EU) law. This article is the very first to present the situation concerning LUP around hazardous plants in Poland based on such extensive data. The assessment shows that the way of recording the major accident hazards is varied, but legal norms, binding at the time when the documents were drawn up, were met in each of the analysed documents. Changes of relevant Poland legislation were not the only reason for differences in the ways of recording the hazards of major industrial accidents in these documents. The case study has revealed that relevant Polish regulations can be still improved. The results of the study have useful implications for the control of major accidents, spatial policy-making and environmental management.

Heat Exposure and Occupational Injuries: Review of the Literature and Implications

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

The burden of heat-related adverse occupational health effects, as well as traumatic injuries, is already substantial. Projected increases in mean temperatures and extreme events may increase the risk of adverse heat health effects and enhance disparities among exposed workers. This article reviews the emerging literature on the relationship between heat exposure and occupational traumatic injuries and discusses implications of this work.

RECENT FINDINGS

A recent meta-analysis of three case-crossover and five time series studies in industrialized settings reported an association of increasing occupational injuries with increasing heat exposure, with increased effect estimates for male gender and age less than 25 years, although heterogeneity in exposure metrics and sources of bias were demonstrated to varying degrees across studies. A subsequent case-crossover study in outdoor construction workers reported a 0.5% increase in the odds of traumatic injuries per 1 °C increase in maximum daily humidex (odds ratio 1.005 [95% CI 1.003-1.007]). While some studies have demonstrated reversed U-shaped associations between heat exposure and occupational injuries, different risk profiles have been reported in different industries and settings. Studies conducted primarily in industrialized settings suggest an increased risk of traumatic injury with increasing heat exposure, though the exact mechanisms of heat exposure's effects on traumatic injuries are still under investigation. The effectiveness of heat-related injury prevention approaches has not yet been established. To enhance the effectiveness of prevention efforts, prioritization of approaches should take into account not only the hierarchy of controls, social-ecological models, community and stakeholder participation, and tailoring of approaches to specific local work settings, but also methods that reduce local and global disparities and better address the source of heat exposure, including conservation-informed land-use planning, built environment, and prevention through design approaches. Participation of occupational health experts in transdisciplinary development and integration of these approaches is needed.

Multifactor-based environmental risk assessment for sustainable land-use planning in Shenzhen, China

The health and resilience of urban ecosystems are highly dependent on interactions between the natural and built environments. Rapid urbanization, however, brings potential risks to urban ecosystems. Therefore, it is important to justify land-use planning and to identify opportunities for regulating sustainable land use. We developed a framework of land-use planning based on an Environmental Risk Assessment (ERA) and applied it to an environmentally sensitive urban area in Shenzhen, China. The ERA used the analytic hierarchy process method to determine weights for various indicators, and further performed a multifactor-based spatial superposition analysis in the ModelBuilder of a geographic information system to produce a risk map. The selected indicators were topography, hydrology, ecosystem, land use, and traffic. The risk map was first compared with an existing map of ecological control lines to ensure the reliability of the ERA, and then applied to establish the necessity and priority of land-use measures for four different land-use types: nature reserves, green space, urban areas, and spare land. The map indicated that nature reserves and green space make up 84.7% of the area at high risk of degradation, whereas urban areas make up 13.7%. It also showed that a majority of the high-risk urban areas are distributed around water-source reserves and the Pingshan River, and 87.6% of them are residential, industrial, and commercial lands in which the potential risks of non-point source pollution are high. Corrective actions should be considered on an urgent basis in high-risk urban areas, where low-impact development practices are considered effective in reducing non-point source pollution at the source. Validation results affirmed that the proposed ERA approach can reliably provide insights into the distribution of environmental risks in the study area. The proposed framework of ERA-based land-use planning is applicable to sustainable urban development and revitalization of other urban regions.

Mammal responses to the human footprint vary across species and stressors

A rapidly expanding human footprint - comprised of anthropogenic land-use change and infrastructure - is profoundly affecting wildlife distributions worldwide. Cumulative effects management (CEM) is a regional approach that seeks to manage combined effects of the human footprint on biodiversity across large spatial scales. Challenges to implementing this approach include a lack of ecological data at large spatial scales, the high cost of monitoring multiple indicators, and the need to manage multiple footprints across industries. To inform development of effective CEM, we used large mammals as indicators to address the following questions: a) do species respond more strongly to individual footprint features or to cumulative effects (combined area of all footprint types, measured as total footprint), b) which features elicit the strongest responses across species, and c) are the direction of responses to footprint consistent? We used data from 12 years of snowtrack surveys (2001-2013) in the boreal forest of Alberta, coupled with regional footprint and landcover data, to develop generalized linear mixed-effects models relating the relative abundance of five boreal mammals [gray wolf (Canis lupus), Canada lynx (Lynx canadensis), coyote (Canis latrans), white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) and moose (Alces alces)] to individual and cumulative effects of the human footprint. We found that across species the strongest responses were to agriculture, roads, and young cutblocks (<10 years), suggesting these as potential priority stressors to address within CEM. Most species also responded to total footprint, indicating that in the absence of detailed information on individual features, this coarse measure can serve as an index of cumulative effects. There was high variability in direction and magnitude of responses across species, indicating that community-level responses are likely and should be considered within CEM planning.

Impacts of land-use management on ecosystem services and biodiversity: an agent-based modelling approach

The science of ecosystem service (ES) mapping has become increasingly sophisticated over the past 20 years, and examples of successfully integrating ES into management decisions at national and sub-national scales have begun to emerge. However, increasing model sophistication and accuracy—and therefore complexity—may trade-off with ease of use and applicability to real-world decision-making contexts, so it is vital to incorporate the lessons learned from implementation efforts into new model development. Using successful implementation efforts for guidance, we developed an integrated ES modelling system to quantify several ecosystem services: forest timber production and carbon storage, water purification, pollination, and biodiversity. The system is designed to facilitate uptake of ES information into land-use decisions through three principal considerations: (1) using relatively straightforward models that can be readily deployed and interpreted without specialized expertise; (2) using an agent-based modelling framework to enable the incorporation of human decision-making directly within the model; and (3) integration among all ES models to simultaneously demonstrate the effects of a single land-use decision on multiple ES. We present an implementation of the model for a major watershed in Alberta, Canada, and highlight the system’s capabilities to assess a suite of ES under future management decisions, including forestry activities under two alternative timber harvest strategies, and through a scenario modelling analysis exploring different intensities of hypothetical agricultural expansion. By using a modular approach, the modelling system can be readily expanded to evaluate additional ecosystem services or management questions of interest in order to guide land-use decisions to achieve socioeconomic and environmental objectives.

A knowledge-based approach to estimating the magnitude and spatial patterns of potential threats to soil biodiversity

Because of the increasing pressures exerted on soil, below-ground life is under threat. Knowledge-based rankings of potential threats to different components of soil biodiversity were developed in order to assess the spatial distribution of threats on a European scale. A list of 13 potential threats to soil biodiversity was proposed to experts with different backgrounds in order to assess the potential for three major components of soil biodiversity: soil microorganisms, fauna, and biological functions. This approach allowed us to obtain knowledge-based rankings of threats. These classifications formed the basis for the development of indices through an additive aggregation model that, along with ad-hoc proxies for each pressure, allowed us to preliminarily assess the spatial patterns of potential threats. Intensive exploitation was identified as the highest pressure. In contrast, the use of genetically modified organisms in agriculture was considered as the threat with least potential. The potential impact of climate change showed the highest uncertainty. Fourteen out of the 27 considered countries have more than 40% of their soils with moderate-high to high potential risk for all three components of soil biodiversity. Arable soils are the most exposed to pressures. Soils within the boreal biogeographic region showed the lowest risk potential. The majority of soils at risk are outside the boundaries of protected areas. First maps of risks to three components of soil biodiversity based on the current scientific knowledge were developed. Despite the intrinsic limits of knowledge-based assessments, a remarkable potential risk to soil biodiversity was observed. Guidelines to preliminarily identify and circumscribe soils potentially at risk are provided. This approach may be used in future research to assess threat at both local and global scale and identify areas of possible risk and, subsequently, design appropriate strategies for monitoring and protection of soil biota.

Fast food restaurant locations according to socioeconomic disadvantage, urban-regional locality, and schools within Victoria, Australia

Features of the built environment provide opportunities to engage in both healthy and unhealthy behaviours. Access to a high number of fast food restaurants may encourage greater consumption of fast food products. The distribution of fast food restaurants at a state-level has not previously been reported in Australia. Using the location of 537 fast food restaurants from four major chains (McDonald׳s, KFC, Hungry Jacks, and Red Rooster), this study examined fast food restaurant locations across the state of Victoria relative to area-level disadvantage, urban-regional locality (classified as Major Cities, Inner Regional, or Outer Regional), and around schools. Findings revealed greater locational access to fast food restaurants in more socioeconomically disadvantaged areas (compared to areas with lower levels of disadvantage), nearby to secondary schools (compared to primary schools), and nearby to primary and secondary schools within the most disadvantaged areas of the major city region (compared to primary and secondary schools in areas with lower levels of disadvantage). Adjusted models showed no significant difference in location according to urban-regional locality. Knowledge of the distribution of fast food restaurants in Australia will assist local authorities to target potential policy mechanisms, such as planning regulations, where they are most needed.

Storminess and geo-hydrological events affecting small coastal basins in a terraced Mediterranean environment

This study was prompted by the occurrence of an extreme Damaging geo-Hydrological Event (DHE) which occurred on October 25th 2011 and which affected a wide area of the northern Mediterranean region. After analysing the storm by means of the precipitation time series, the study attempts to relate the October 25th 2011 DHE with a series of other DHEs that occurred in the period 1954-2012, assessed via the use of historical data and classified according to severity, with a Storm Erosivity Indicator (Ra). The annual mean of the Ra value (2582 MJ mm ha(-1) h(-1) y(-1)) confirmed that the study area is one of the European regions with the highest rainfall erosivity level. A shift in storminess during 1991-2012 with respect to 1954-1990 was observed. A return period of 1000 years was calculated for the single storm erosivity of October 25th, which contributed to 84% of the total annual storm erosivity of 2011 A quite good agreement was found comparing DHE distribution and severity with Ra anomalies over time. As a matter of fact, most of the low severity DHEs (62.5%) occurred in years in which the Ra was below the average value. Moreover, almost all DHEs (93%) ranging from medium- to very high-severity occurred in years for which the Ra exceeded the average value. With regard to the occurrence of the most severe DHE classes, a threshold of the Ra and a recurrence time of approximately 3300 MJ mm ha(-1) h(-1) y(-1) and 12 years, respectively, were identified. Finally, some evidences suggest that an increasing frequency of DHEs is expected in the forthcoming years. It is argued that understanding these issues is a major priority for future research in order to improve land and urban planning strategies for preserving people and the environment, leading ultimately to an effective risk reduction.

Perception, demand and user contribution to ecosystem services in the Bilbao Metropolitan Greenbelt

Peri-urban ecosystems are often managed as recreation areas or to enhance aesthetic value on the urban fringe. Scholars and land-use practitioners lack a current understanding of the supply of and the demands for these peri-urban ecosystem services (ES). In this study, we analysed the perceptions of 500 users and interest groups regarding the ES provided by the Bilbao Metropolitan Greenbelt (BMG) ecosystems in northern Spain, and we compared these perceptions to the demands for ES. The objective of this study is to understand user preferences and to thereby better orient land use planning. The results show that the demand for ES in the BMG did not correspond to what users perceived these ecosystems to provide. The respondents' perceptions appeared to be related to the management practices in the area, whereas their demand was related to the benefits they would like to obtain from the BMG. The interviewees were in favour of improvements to peri-urban rural areas, and the results suggested that the authorities should highlight the role of the BMG ecosystems with respect to regulating services and historic and cultural values to improve people's awareness of the ecosystems' capacity to provide benefits to society. Application of this framework also highlighted that there were differences in the perception of and demand for ES among different user groups. This holistic method of matching user demand with policy could be a useful tool to reorient ES-based land planning.