Climate‐mediated population dynamics of a migratory songbird differ between the trailing edge and range core

Understanding the demographic drivers of range contractions is important for predicting species' responses to climate change; however, few studies have examined the effects of climate change on survival and recruitment across species' ranges. We show that climate change can drive trailing edge range contractions through the effects on apparent survival, and potentially recruitment, in a migratory songbird. We assessed the demographic drivers of trailing edge range contractions using a long-term demography dataset for the black-throated blue warbler (Setophaga caerulescens) collected across elevational climate gradients at the trailing edge and core of the breeding range. We used a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate the effect of climate change on apparent survival and recruitment and to forecast population viability at study plots through 2040. The trailing edge population at the low-elevation plot became locally extinct by 2017. The local population at the mid-elevation plot at the trailing edge gradually declined and is predicted to become extirpated by 2040. Population declines were associated with warming temperatures at the mid-elevation plot, although results were more equivocal at the low-elevation plot where we had fewer years of data. Population density was stable or increasing at the range core, although warming temperatures are predicted to cause population declines by 2040 at the low-elevation plot. This result suggests that even populations within the geographic core of the range are vulnerable to climate change. The demographic drivers of local population declines varied between study plots, but warming temperatures were frequently associated with declining rates of population growth and apparent survival. Declining apparent survival in our study system is likely to be associated with increased adult emigration away from poor-quality habitats. Our results suggest that demographic responses to warming temperatures are complex and dependent on local conditions and geographic range position, but spatial variation in population declines is consistent with the climate-mediated range shift hypothesis. Local populations of black-throated blue warblers near the warm-edge range boundary at low latitudes and low elevations are likely to be the most vulnerable to climate change, potentially leading to local extirpation and range contractions.

Integrating data types to estimate spatial patterns of avian migration across the Western Hemisphere

For many avian species, spatial migration patterns remain largely undescribed, especially across hemispheric extents. Recent advancements in tracking technologies and high-resolution species distribution models (i.e., eBird Status and Trends products) provide new insights into migratory bird movements and offer a promising opportunity for integrating independent data sources to describe avian migration. Here, we present a three-stage modeling framework for estimating spatial patterns of avian migration. First, we integrate tracking and band re-encounter data to quantify migratory connectivity, defined as the relative proportions of individuals migrating between breeding and nonbreeding regions. Next, we use estimated connectivity proportions along with eBird occurrence probabilities to produce probabilistic least-cost path (LCP) indices. In a final step, we use generalized additive mixed models (GAMMs) both to evaluate the ability of LCP indices to accurately predict (i.e., as a covariate) observed locations derived from tracking and band re-encounter data sets versus pseudo-absence locations during migratory periods and to create a fully integrated (i.e., eBird occurrence, LCP, and tracking/band re-encounter data) spatial prediction index for mapping species-specific seasonal migrations. To illustrate this approach, we apply this framework to describe seasonal migrations of 12 bird species across the Western Hemisphere during pre- and postbreeding migratory periods (i.e., spring and fall, respectively). We found that including LCP indices with eBird occurrence in GAMMs generally improved the ability to accurately predict observed migratory locations compared to models with eBird occurrence alone. Using three performance metrics, the eBird + LCP model demonstrated equivalent or superior fit relative to the eBird-only model for 22 of 24 species-season GAMMs. In particular, the integrated index filled in spatial gaps for species with over-water movements and those that migrated over land where there were few eBird sightings and, thus, low predictive ability of eBird occurrence probabilities (e.g., Amazonian rainforest in South America). This methodology of combining individual-based seasonal movement data with temporally dynamic species distribution models provides a comprehensive approach to integrating multiple data types to describe broad-scale spatial patterns of animal movement. Further development and customization of this approach will continue to advance knowledge about the full annual cycle and conservation of migratory birds.

Habitat loss on the breeding grounds is a major contributor to population declines in a long-distance migratory songbird

Many migratory species are declining and for most, the proximate causes of their declines remain unknown. For many long-distance Neotropical migratory songbirds, it is assumed that habitat loss on breeding or non-breeding grounds is a primary driver of population declines. We integrated data collected from tracking technology, community science and remote sensing data to quantify migratory connectivity (MC), population trends and habitat loss. We quantified the correlation between forest change throughout the annual cycle and population declines of a long-distance migratory songbird, the Connecticut warbler (Oporornis agilis, observed decline: -8.99% yr-1). MC, the geographic link between populations during two or more phases of the annual cycle, was stronger between breeding and autumn migration routes (MC = 0.24 ± 0.23) than between breeding and non-breeding locations (MC = -0.2 ± 0.14). Different Connecticut warbler populations tended to have population-specific fall migration routes but overlapped almost completely within the northern Gran Chaco ecoregion in South America. Cumulative forest loss within 50 km of breeding locations and the resulting decline in the largest forested patch index was correlated more strongly with population declines than forest loss on migratory stopover regions or on wintering locations in South America, suggesting that habitat loss during the breeding season is a driver of observed population declines for the Connecticut warbler. Land-use practices that retain large, forested patches within landscapes will likely benefit breeding populations of this declining songbird, but further research is needed to help inform land-use practices across the full annual cycle to minimize the impacts to migratory songbirds and abate ongoing population declines.

Variance in within-pair reproductive success influences the opportunity for selection annually and over the lifetimes of males in a multibrooded songbird

In socially monogamous species, male reproductive success consists of "within-pair" offspring produced with their socially paired mate(s), and "extra-pair" offspring produced with additional females throughout the population. Both reproductive pathways offer distinct opportunities for selection in wild populations, as each is composed of separate components of mate attraction, female fecundity, and paternity allocation. Identifying key sources of variance and covariance among these components is a crucial step toward understanding the reproductive strategies that males use to maximize fitness both annually and over their lifetimes. We use 16 years of complete reproductive data from a population of black-throated blue warblers (Setophaga caerulescens) to partition variance in male annual and lifetime reproductive success, and thereby identify if the opportunity for selection varies over the lifetimes of individual males and what reproductive strategies likely favor maximum lifetime fitness. The majority of variance in male reproduction was attributable to within-pair success, but the specific effects of individual components of variance differed between total annual and total lifetime reproductive success. Positive overall lifetime covariance between within-pair and extra-pair components indicates that males able to maximize within-pair success, particularly with double-brooding females, likely achieve higher overall lifetime fitness via both within-pair and extra-pair reproductive pathways.

Ecological insights from three decades of animal movement tracking across a changing Arctic

The Arctic is entering a new ecological state, with alarming consequences for humanity. Animal-borne sensors offer a window into these changes. Although substantial animal tracking data from the Arctic and subarctic exist, most are difficult to discover and access. Here, we present the new Arctic Animal Movement Archive (AAMA), a growing collection of more than 200 standardized terrestrial and marine animal tracking studies from 1991 to the present. The AAMA supports public data discovery, preserves fundamental baseline data for the future, and facilitates efficient, collaborative data analysis. With AAMA-based case studies, we document climatic influences on the migration phenology of eagles, geographic differences in the adaptive response of caribou reproductive phenology to climate change, and species-specific changes in terrestrial mammal movement rates in response to increasing temperature.

Light-level geolocator analyses: A user's guide

Light-level geolocator tags use ambient light recordings to estimate the whereabouts of an individual over the time it carried the device. Over the past decade, these tags have emerged as an important tool and have been used extensively for tracking animal migrations, most commonly small birds. Analysing geolocator data can be daunting to new and experienced scientists alike. Over the past decades, several methods with fundamental differences in the analytical approach have been developed to cope with the various caveats and the often complicated data. Here, we explain the concepts behind the analyses of geolocator data and provide a practical guide for the common steps encompassing most analyses - annotation of twilights, calibration, estimating and refining locations, and extraction of movement patterns - describing good practices and common pitfalls for each step. We discuss criteria for deciding whether or not geolocators can answer proposed research questions, provide guidance in choosing an appropriate analysis method and introduce key features of the newest open-source analysis tools. We provide advice for how to interpret and report results, highlighting parameters that should be reported in publications and included in data archiving. Finally, we introduce a comprehensive supplementary online manual that applies the concepts to several datasets, demonstrates the use of open-source analysis tools with step-by-step instructions and code and details our recommendations for interpreting, reporting and archiving.

Breeding latitude predicts timing but not rate of spring migration in a widespread migratory bird in South America

Identifying the processes that determine avian migratory strategies in different environmental contexts is imperative to understanding the constraints to survival and reproduction faced by migratory birds across the planet.We compared the spring migration strategies of Fork-tailed Flycatchers (Tyrannus s. savana) that breed at south-temperate latitudes (i.e., austral migrants) vs. tropical latitudes (i.e., intratropical migrants) in South America. We hypothesized that austral migrant flycatchers are more time-selected than intratropical migrants during spring migration. As such, we predicted that austral migrants, which migrate further than intratropical migrants, will migrate at a faster rate and that the rate of migration for austral migrants will be positively correlated with the onset of spring migration.We attached light-level geolocators to Fork-tailed Flycatchers at two tropical breeding sites in Brazil and at two south-temperate breeding sites in Argentina and tracked their movements until the following breeding season.Of 286 geolocators that were deployed, 37 were recovered ~1 year later, of which 28 provided useable data. Rate of spring migration did not differ significantly between the two groups, and only at one site was there a significantly positive relationship between date of initiation of spring migration and arrival date.This represents the first comparison of individual migratory strategies among conspecific passerines breeding at tropical vs. temperate latitudes and suggests that austral migrant Fork-tailed Flycatchers in South America are not more time-selected on spring migration than intratropical migrant conspecifics. Low sample sizes could have diminished our power to detect differences (e.g., between sexes), such that further research into the mechanisms underpinning migratory strategies in this poorly understood system is necessary.

Weak effects of geolocators on small birds: A meta-analysis controlled for phylogeny and publication bias

Currently, the deployment of tracking devices is one of the most frequently used approaches to study movement ecology of birds. Recent miniaturization of light-level geolocators enabled studying small bird species whose migratory patterns were widely unknown. However, geolocators may reduce vital rates in tagged birds and may bias obtained movement data. There is a need for a thorough assessment of the potential tag effects on small birds, as previous meta-analyses did not evaluate unpublished data and impact of multiple life-history traits, focused mainly on large species and the number of published studies tagging small birds has increased substantially. We quantitatively reviewed 549 records extracted from 74 published and 48 unpublished studies on over 7,800 tagged and 17,800 control individuals to examine the effects of geolocator tagging on small bird species (body mass <100 g). We calculated the effect of tagging on apparent survival, condition, phenology and breeding performance and identified the most important predictors of the magnitude of effect sizes. Even though the effects were not statistically significant in phylogenetically controlled models, we found a weak negative impact of geolocators on apparent survival. The negative effect on apparent survival was stronger with increasing relative load of the device and with geolocators attached using elastic harnesses. Moreover, tagging effects were stronger in smaller species. In conclusion, we found a weak effect on apparent survival of tagged birds and managed to pinpoint key aspects and drivers of tagging effects. We provide recommendations for establishing matched control group for proper effect size assessment in future studies and outline various aspects of tagging that need further investigation. Finally, our results encourage further use of geolocators on small bird species but the ethical aspects and scientific benefits should always be considered.

Tracking dragons: stable isotopes reveal the annual cycle of a long-distance migratory insect

Insect migration is globally ubiquitous and can involve continental-scale movements and complex life histories. Apart from select species of migratory moths and butterflies, little is known about the structure of the annual cycle for migratory insects. Using stable-hydrogen isotope analysis of 852 wing samples from eight countries spanning 140 years, combined with 21 years of citizen science data, we determined the full annual cycle of a large migratory dragonfly, the common green darner ( Anax junius). We demonstrate that darners undertake complex long-distance annual migrations governed largely by temperature that involve at least three generations. In spring, the first generation makes a long-distance northbound movement (further than 650 km) from southern to northern range limits, lays eggs and dies. A second generation emerges and returns south (further than 680 km), where they lay eggs and die. Finally, a third resident generation emerges, reproducing locally and giving rise to the cohort that migrates north the following spring. Since migration timing and nymph development are highly dependent on temperature, continued climate change could lead to fundamental changes in the biology for this and similar migratory insects.

Inherent limits of light-level geolocation may lead to over-interpretation

In their 2015 Current Biology paper, Streby et al.[1] reported that Golden-winged Warblers (Vermivora chrysoptera), which had just migrated to their breeding location in eastern Tennessee, performed a facultative and up to ">1,500 km roundtrip" to the Gulf of Mexico to avoid a severe tornadic storm. From light-level geolocator data, wherein geographical locations are estimated via the timing of sunrise and sunset, Streby et al.[1] concluded that the warblers had evacuated their breeding area approximately 24 hours before the storm and returned about five days later. The authors presented this finding as evidence that migratory birds avoid severe storms by temporarily moving long-distances. However, the tracking method employed by Streby et al.[1] is prone to considerable error and uncertainty. Here, we argue that this interpretation of the data oversteps the limits of the used tracking technique. By calculating the expected geographical error range for the tracked birds, we demonstrate that the hypothesized movements fell well within the geolocators' inherent error range for this species and that such deviations in latitude occur frequently even if individuals remain stationary.

Extra-pair paternity in a long-distance migratory songbird beyond neighbors’ borders and across male age classes

Roughly 90% of socially monogamous bird species exhibit some degree of extra-pair paternity (EPP), although the extent and the underlying mechanisms vary among species. We analyzed spatial and demographic patterns of EPP over a 6 year period (2005–2010) as part of a long-term population study of Canada Warblers (Cardellina canadensis (L., 1766)). We identified 12 microsatellite loci used to assess paternity for 185 nestlings from 61 nests. Extra-pair young (EPY) accounted for 41.6% of all nestlings and 57.4% of nests contained at least one EPY. Fewer than half of EPY were sired by males who shared territorial boundaries, and some males sired young in nests 1 km from their territory. The age of social males did not differ from males who cuckolded them. The majority (83%) of EPY were sired by males in older age classes (2+ years old), while <17% were sired by 1 year olds. Of the young sired by older males, 58.5% were sired by males 3–7 years old. Males that sired more EPY sired fewer within-pair young (WPY); those without EPY sired more WPY suggesting a possible fitness trade-off between these two strategies. Our findings suggest multiple age-based strategies within a single breeding population, as well as potential strategy shifts to maximize lifetime fitness as they age.

Phylogeography of a migratory songbird across its Canadian breeding range: Implications for conservation units

The objectives of this study were to describe and evaluate potential drivers of genetic structure in Canadian breeding populations of the Ovenbird, Seiurus aurocapilla. We performed genetic analyses on feather samples of individuals from six study sites using nuclear microsatellites. We also assessed species identity and population genetic structure of quill mites (Acariformes, Syringophilidae). For male Ovenbirds breeding in three study sites, we collected light-level geolocator data to document migratory paths and identify the wintering grounds. We also generated paleohindcast projections from bioclimatic models of Ovenbird distribution to identify potential refugia during the last glacial maximum (LGM, 21,000 years before present) as a factor explaining population genetic structure. Birds breeding in the Cypress Hills (Alberta/Saskatchewan) may be considered a distinct genetic unit, but there was no evidence for genetic differentiation among any other populations. We found relatively strong migratory connectivity in both western and eastern populations, but some evidence of mixing among populations on the wintering grounds. There was also little genetic variation among syringophilid mites from the different Ovenbird populations. These results are consistent with paleohindcast distribution predictions derived from two different global climate models indicating a continuous single LGM refugium, with the possibility of two refugia. Our results suggest that Ovenbird populations breeding in boreal and hemiboreal regions are panmictic, whereas the population breeding in Cypress Hills should be considered a distinct management unit.

Migratory connectivity of a Neotropical migratory songbird revealed by archival light-level geolocators

Understanding migratory connectivity is critical for interpreting population dynamics, seasonal interactions, and for the implementation of conservation strategies of migratory species. We evaluated the migratory connectivity of a Neotropical migratory songbird, the Ovenbird (Seiurus aurocapilla) using archival light-level geolocators deployed at two breeding and four nonbreeding locations while incorporating Ovenbird abundance as prior information using Bayes' Rule. We also included band recoveries submitted to the United States Geological Survey's Bird Banding Laboratory to assess connectivity of areas where geolocators were not deployed. We created a probabilistic map of origin for each capture site and mapped spring migration routes between nonbreeding and breeding locations. We found a complete separation of eastern and western populations of Ovenbirds throughout the annual cycle. Breeding Ovenbirds from western Canada spent the nonbreeding season throughout Central America and migrated through central North America during spring migration. Birds breeding in the northeastern United States were distributed throughout the central Greater Antilles in the Caribbean and migrated through eastern North America during spring migration. Fall migration routes were not included because the timing of migration coincided with fall equinox when latitudinal estimates are unreliable. However, longitudinal estimates suggest no overlap between eastern and western populations during fall migration. Ovenbirds with geolocators attached in Jamaica bred in the northeastern United States with the highest posterior probability of origin found in Massachusetts, while Ovenbirds captured in Florida and Puerto Rico bred primarily in the mid-Atlantic. Incorporating Ovenbird abundance as a prior into geolocator estimates decreased the area of origin by 90.37% ± 1.05% (mean ± SE) for the breeding season and 62.30% ± 1.69% for the nonbreeding season, compared to geolocator estimates alone. Ovenbirds exhibited strong migratory connectivity between breeding and nonbreeding season, which has important implications for various aspects of the ecology, evolution, and conservation.