District-Level Forecast of Achieving Trachoma Elimination as a Public Health Problem By 2030: An Ensemble Modelling Approach

Assessing the feasibility of 2030 as a target date for global elimination of trachoma, and identification of districts that may require enhanced treatment to meet World Health Organization (WHO) elimination criteria by this date are key challenges in operational planning for trachoma programmes. Here we address these challenges by prospectively evaluating forecasting models of trachomatous inflammation-follicular (TF) prevalence, leveraging ensemble-based approaches. Seven candidate probabilistic models were developed to forecast district-wise TF prevalence in 11 760 districts, trained using district-level data on the population prevalence of TF in children aged 1-9 years from 2004 to 2022. Geographical location, history of mass drug administration treatment, and previously measured prevalence data were included in these models as key predictors. The best-performing models were included in an ensemble, using weights derived from their relative likelihood scores. To incorporate the inherent stochasticity of disease transmission and challenges of population-level surveillance, we forecasted probability distributions for the TF prevalence in each geographic district, rather than predicting a single value. Based on our probabilistic forecasts, 1.46% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.43-1.48%) of all districts in trachoma-endemic countries, equivalent to 172 districts, will exceed the 5% TF control threshold in 2030 with the current interventions. Global elimination of trachoma as a public health problem by 2030 may require enhanced intervention and/or surveillance of high-risk districts.

Gender differences in the surgical management of trachomatous trichiasis: an exploratory analysis of global trachoma survey data, 2015-2019

BACKGROUND

Trachomatous trichiasis (TT) is a painful, potentially blinding eye condition that can be managed through epilation or surgery. Women are affected by TT approximately twice as often as men and are believed to face gendered barriers to receiving surgical care to prevent vision loss.

METHODS

We used data from 817 cross-sectional surveys conducted during 2015-2019 in 20 African countries to estimate the prevalence difference (PD) between female and male eyes for four outcomes potentially indicating gender-related differences in TT management: (1) received surgery and developed postoperative TT (PTT), (2) never offered surgery, (3) offered surgery but declined it, and (4) offered epilation but never offered surgery.

RESULTS

The prevalence was modestly elevated among female eyes compared with male eyes for having PTT (PD:1.8 [95% confidence limits (CL): 0.6, 3.0]) and having declined surgery for the eye (PD: 6.2 [95% CL: 1.8, 10.7]). The proportion offered epilation was similar by gender (PD:0.5 [95% CL: -0.4, 1.3]), while never having been offered surgery was somewhat more prevalent among male eyes (PD: -2.1 [95% CL: -3.5, -0.7]).

CONCLUSIONS

Our results suggest potential gender differences in TT management. More research is needed to determine the causes and implications of the observed differences.

Exploring water, sanitation, and hygiene coverage targets for reaching and sustaining trachoma elimination: G-computation analysis

BACKGROUND

Trachoma is the leading infectious cause of blindness. To reduce transmission, water, sanitation, and hygiene (WaSH) improvements are promoted through a comprehensive public health strategy. Evidence supporting the role of WaSH in trachoma elimination is mixed and it remains unknown what WaSH coverages are needed to effectively reduce transmission.

METHODS/FINDINGS

We used g-computation to estimate the impact on the prevalence of trachomatous inflammation-follicular among children aged 1-9 years (TF1-9) when hypothetical WaSH interventions raised the minimum coverages from 5% to 100% for "nearby" face-washing water (<30 minutes roundtrip collection time) and adult latrine use in an evaluation unit (EU). For each scenario, we estimated the generalized prevalence difference as the TF1-9 prevalence under the intervention scenarios minus the observed prevalence. Data from 574 cross-sectional surveys conducted in 16 African and Eastern Mediterranean countries were included. Surveys were conducted from 2015-2019 with support from the Global Trachoma Mapping Project and Tropical Data. When modeling interventions among EUs that had not yet met the TF1-9 elimination target, increasing nearby face-washing water and latrine use coverages above 30% was generally associated with consistent decreases in TF1-9. For nearby face-washing water, we estimated a ≥25% decrease in TF1-9 at 65% coverage, with a plateau upon reaching 85% coverage. For latrine use, the estimated decrease in TF1-9 accelerated from 80% coverage upward, with a ≥25% decrease in TF1-9 by 85% coverage. Among EUs that had previously met the elimination target, results were inconclusive.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results support Sustainable Development Goal 6 and provide insight into potential WaSH-related coverage targets for trachoma elimination. Targets can be tested in future trials to improve evidence-based WaSH guidance for trachoma.