DI Martino M, Mora-Guzman I, Blanco-Traba YG, Díaz MC, Khurram MA, Martín-Pérez E. Predictive Factors of Pancreatic Fistula After Pancreaticoduodenectomy and External Validation of Predictive Scores.
Anticancer Res 2019;
39:499-504. [PMID:
30591501 DOI:
10.21873/anticanres.13140]
[Citation(s) in RCA: 13] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/20/2018] [Revised: 12/03/2018] [Accepted: 12/07/2018] [Indexed: 11/10/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND/AIM
The Fistula Risk Score (FRS), as other risk scores, is a validated model predicting the development of a clinically relevant post-operative pancreatic fistula (CR-POPF) after pancreaticoduodenectomy (PD). We evaluated risk factors related with CR-POPF and correlated four predictive scores with the likelihood of developing CR-POPF in our cohort.
PATIENTS AND METHODS
The records of 107 patients who underwent PD from 2007 to 2015 were obtained from a prospectively maintained database and reviewed. CR-POPFs were categorized by the International Study Group of Pancreatic Fistula (ISGPF) standards. Firstly, a univariate and multivariate analysis of risk factors related to CR-PPOPF was performed, and then the data were correlated with FRS, Wellner's, Robert's and Yamamoto's scores.
RESULTS
In total, 30 patients developed a CR-POPF. On multivariate analysis, abdominal thickness (OR=1.02, p=0.010), Wirsung's duct diameter (OR=0.57, p=0.029), pancreatic consistency (OR=3.18, p=0.011) and histological diagnosis of the lesion (OR=1.65, p=0.012) represented independent predictive factors of CR-POPF. FRS (R2=0.596, p=0.001), Wellner's score (R2=0.285, p=0.005) and Roberts' score (R2=0.385, p=0.002) correlated with the likelihood of developing CR-POPF.
CONCLUSION
Abdominal thickness, Wirsung's duct diameter, pancreatic consistency and histological diagnosis were independent predictive factors of CR-POPF. Predictive scores reflected the likelihood of CR-POPF, FRS being the score with the highest predictive value.
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