Estimating the number of probable new SARS-CoV-2 infections among tested subjects from the number of confirmed cases

OBJECTIVES

In most African countries, confirmed COVID-19 case counts underestimate the number of new SARS-CoV-2 infection cases. We propose a multiplying factor to approximate the number of biologically probable new infections from the number of confirmed cases.

METHODS

Each of the first thousand suspect (or alert) cases recorded in South Kivu (DRC) between 29 March and 29 November 2020 underwent a RT-PCR test and an IgM and IgG serology. A latent class model and a Bayesian inference method were used to estimate (i) the incidence proportion of SARS-CoV-2 infection using RT-PCR and IgM test results, (ii) the prevalence using RT-PCR, IgM and IgG test results; and, (iii) the multiplying factor (ratio of the incidence proportion on the proportion of confirmed -RT-PCR+- cases).

RESULTS

Among 933 alert cases with complete data, 218 (23%) were RT-PCR+; 434 (47%) IgM+; 464 (~ 50%) RT-PCR+, IgM+, or both; and 647 (69%) either IgG + or IgM+. The incidence proportion of SARS-CoV-2 infection was estimated at 58% (95% credibility interval: 51.8-64), its prevalence at 72.83% (65.68-77.89), and the multiplying factor at 2.42 (1.95-3.01).

CONCLUSIONS

In monitoring the pandemic dynamics, the number of biologically probable cases is also useful. The multiplying factor helps approximating it.

A french adaptation of the vineland adaptive behavior scales VABS-II

Introduction

For populations with intellectual disability and autism spectrum disorder, it is essential to complete cognitive assessment with an adaptive behavior scale.

Objectives

To translate VABS-II from English to French and establish norms for the French population.

Methods

We used the Parent/Caregiver form in order to assess psychometric characteristics of the VABS-II and to develop norms for the French population. VABS-II comprises 4 domains, 11 subdomains, and an optional maladaptive behavior index. The French translation of the VABS-II followed standard cross-cultural translation methods. The study was performed in the Rhône-Alpes-Auvergne department comprising 12 % of France inhabitants and well representing the French general population.

Results

From 4576 VABS-II questionnaires distributed, 1707 were returned and 1654 were analyzed. The reason for exclusion was the impossibility to score one of the subdomains. From 174 questionnaires included in the test-retest, 95 were analyzed, and 79 questionnaires were excluded because 86 under 34 days, 8 > 3 months, and one participant that changed age group between test and retest. Scores based on French norms fluctuated around values based on US norms on all subdomains.

Conclusions

The French Vineland questionnaire is the single test with the adequate norms to allow identifying children with adaptive behavior difficulties. It should be used as a complement of the assessment of the intellectual quotient, according to DSM V, for the diagnosis of intellectual disabilities. It must be done in reference to the developmental and cultural standards specific to the environment in which the person is evolving.

Disclosure

No significant relationships.

Arterial endofibrosis in endurance athletes: Prospective comparison of the diagnostic accuracy of intra-arterial digital subtraction angiography and computed tomography angiography

PURPOSE

To prospectively compare the diagnostic capabilities of computed tomography angiography (CTA) to those of digital subtraction angiography (DSA) in endurance athletes with suspicion of arterial endofibrosis.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Forty-five athletes (39 men, 6 women; median age: 30 years, interquartile range: 23-42 years) prospectively underwent DSA and CTA without (n=5) or with (n=40) electrocardiogram gating. DSA was interpreted by a single expert (experience of 15 years). CTA was independently interpreted by three other readers (experience of 5-8 years). Readers assessed the presence and degree of stenoses on iliac and femoral arteries and the overall diagnosis (negative, uncertain, positive) of endofibrosis at the limb level. Sensitivities and specificities of DSA and CTA were estimated at the limb level using histological findings and long-term follow-up as reference, and compared using the McNemar test.

RESULTS

For diagnosing and quantifying stenoses, concordance between DSA and CTA was moderate-to-good for common and external iliac arteries, moderate for lateral circumflex arteries and poor-to-moderate for the other branches of the deep femoral artery. It was good for all readers for the overall diagnosis of endofibrosis. After long-term follow-up (median, 95 months; interquartile range: 7-109 months), DSA sensitivity and specificity were respectively 88.6% (39/44; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 76-95%) and 75% (24/32; 95% CI: 57.9-86.7%); CTA sensitivity and specificity were respectively 88.6% (39/44; 95% CI: 76-95%; P>0.99) and 84.4% (27/32; 95% CI: 68.2-93.1%; P=0.51), 86.3% (38/44; 95% CI: 73.3-93.6%; P>0.99) and 75% (24/32; 95% CI: 57.9-86.7%; P>0.99), and 84.1% (37/44; 95% CI: 70.6-92.1%; P=0.68) and 75% (24/32; 95% CI: 57.9-86.7%; P>0.99) for the three readers.

CONCLUSION

CTA shows performances similar to those of DSA in predicting the long-term diagnosis of endofibrosis in endurance athletes with suggestive symptoms.

Postsurgery analgesic and sedative drug use in a French neonatal intensive care unit: A single-center retrospective cohort study

OBJECTIVE

To describe pain assessment, the pattern of analgesic and sedative drug use, and adverse drug reactions in a neonatal intensive care unit (NICU) during the postsurgery phase.

METHOD

Demographic characteristics, pain scores, and drug use were extracted and analyzed from electronic patient medical files for infants after surgery, admitted consecutively between January 2012 and June 2013.

RESULT

One hundred and sixty-eight infants were included. Acute (DAN score) and prolonged (EDIN score) pain assessment scores were used in 79% and 64% of infants, respectively, on the 1st day. This percentage decreased over the 7 days following surgery. The weekly average scores postsurgery were 2/15 (±2.2) for the EDIN score and 1.6/10 (±2.0) for the DAN score. The rates of pain control were 88% for the EDIN and 72% for the DAN. The most prescribed opiate drug was fentanyl (98 patients; 58%) with an average dose of 1.8 (±0.6) μg/kg/h. Midazolam was used in 95 patients (56%), with an average dose of 35 (±14) μg/kg/h. A bolus was administered in 7% (±7.4) of the total dose for fentanyl and 8% (±9.3) for midazolam. Similar doses were used in term and preterm neonates. Of 118 patients receiving fentanyl and/or midazolam, 40% presented urinary retention, 28% a weaning syndrome. Paracetamol (155 patients; 92%) and nalbuphine (55 patients; 33%) were the other medications most often prescribed.

CONCLUSION

The off-label use of fentanyl and midazolam was necessary to treat pain after surgery. Pain assessment should be conducted for all neonates in order to optimize their treatment. Research on analgesic and sedative medicine in vulnerable neonates seems necessary to standardize practices and reduce adverse drug reactions.

Introduction of a paediatric anaesthesia comic information leaflet reduced preoperative anxiety in children

BACKGROUND

The aim of the study was to determine whether the introduction of a paediatric anaesthesia comic information leaflet reduced preoperative anxiety levels of children undergoing major surgery. Secondary objectives were to determine whether the level of understanding of participants and other risk factors influence STAIC-S (State-Trait Anxiety Inventory for Children-State subscale) score in children.

METHODS

We performed a randomized controlled parallel-group trial comparing preoperative anxiety between two groups of children aged >6 and <17 yr. Before surgery, the intervention group received a comic information leaflet at home in addition to routine information given by the anaesthetist at least 1 day before surgery. The control group received the routine information only. The outcome measure was the difference between STAIC-S scores measured before any intervention and after the anaesthetist's visit. A multiple regression analysis was performed to explore the influence of the level of education, the anxiety of parents, and the childrens' intelligence quotient on STAIC-S scores.

RESULTS

One hundred and fifteen children were randomized between April 2009 and April 2013. An intention-to-treat analysis on data from 111 patients showed a significant reduction (P=0.002) in STAIC-S in the intervention group (n=54, mean=-2.2) compared with the control group (n=57, mean=0.90). The multiple regression analysis did not show any influence on STAIC-S scores of the level of education, parental anxiety, or the intelligence quotient of the children.

CONCLUSIONS

A paediatric anaesthesia comic information leaflet was a cheap and effective means of reducing preoperative anxiety, measured by STAIC-S, in children.

CLINICAL TRIALS REGISTRATION

NCT 00841022.

Real study: Re-treatment evaluated on visual acuity for Lucentis® in neovascular AMD

PURPOSE

To assess the value of a monthly injection of Lucentis^® until stable visual acuity (VA) is obtained for three consecutive months without exudation in patients with neovascular age macular degeneration (AMD).

METHODS

Prospective, single-center, non-controlled trial including naïve AMD patients with neovascularization. An assessment of VA and a spectral domain optical coherence tomography (SD-OCT) were performed at baseline and every month. Monthly injections of Lucentis^® were performed over three months. The monthly injections were then continued until three consecutive stable VA results were obtained with no signs of exudation.

RESULTS

Fifteen out of the 21 patients included were anatomically good responders. A mean gain of +14Le (9) was obtained up to the point at which there was no exudation. There was no additional gain from this point until 3 consecutive stable VA results were obtained. During the PRN phase, an additional mean gain of +3.2Le (7.7) was obtained.

CONCLUSION

This initial VA-guided regimen with ranibizumab might prevent the slight decrease in VA observed during the first year of PRN studies.

Two-Phase Study to Assess the Number of Cases Based on Claims Databases: Characteristics of the Validation Data Set

Objective: In a two-phase study design, the characteristics of an external data set were studied for precision and bias of the number of incident or prevalent cases of a disease obtained from claims databases.

Methods: In the study population (first phase), incident or prevalent cases were counted whereas external data (second phase) provided sensitivity and specificity estimates to count cases in a claims database. Influence of potential differences in sensitivity and specificity between the two phases were evaluated. This was illustrated for 50-90% sensitivity and 99-99.99% specificity ranges.

Results and Conclusions: The impact of differences in sensitivity and specificity depends on the odds of disease in the study population. We provide advice on the choice of adequate data sets to correct claims database estimates.

A Simple Modeling-free Method Provides Accurate Estimates of Sensitivity and Specificity of Longitudinal Disease Biomarkers

Objective: To assess the time-dependent accuracy of a continuous longitudinal biomarker used as a test for early diagnosis or prognosis.

Methods: A method for accuracy assessment is proposed taking into account the marker measurement time and the delay between marker measurement and outcome. It dealt with markers having interval-censored measurements and a detection threshold. The threshold crossing times were assessed by a Bayesian method. A numerical study was conducted to test the procedures that were later applied to PCR measurements for prediction of cytomegalovirus disease after renal transplantation.

Results: The Bayesian method corrected the bias induced by interval-censored measurements on sensitivity estimates, with corrections from 0.07 to 0.3. In the application to cytomegalovirus disease, the Bayesian method estimated the area under the ROC curve to be over 75% during the first 20 days after graft and within five days between marker measurement and disease onset. However, the accuracy decreased quickly as that delay increased and late after graft.

Conclusions: The proposed Bayesian method is easy to implement for assessing the time-dependent accuracy of a longitudinal biomarker and gives unbiased results under some conditions.

Reduced bone volumetric density and weak correlation between infection and bone markers in cystic fibrosis adult patients

In our current adult CF population, low BMD prevalence was only 20 %, lower than that historically described. We found a mild increase of serum RANK-L levels, independent from the bone resorption level. The increased fracture risk in CF may be explained by a lower tibial cortical thickness and total vBMD.

INTRODUCTION

Bone disease is now well described in cystic fibrosis (CF) adult patients. CF bone disease is multifactorial but many studies suggested the crucial role of inflammation. The objectives of this study were, in a current adult CF population, to assess the prevalence of bone disease, to examine its relationship with infections and inflammation, and to characterize the bone microarchitecture using high resolution peripheral scanner (HR-pQCT).

METHODS

Fifty-six patients (52 % men, 26 ± 7 years) were assessed in clinically stable period, during a respiratory infection, and finally 14 days after the end of antibiotic therapy. At each time points, we performed a clinical evaluation, lung function tests, and biochemical tests. Absorptiometry and dorso-lumbar radiographs were also performed. A subgroup of 40 CF patients (63 % men, 29 ± 6 years) underwent bone microarchitecture assessment and was age- and gender-matched with 80 healthy controls.

RESULTS

Among the 56 CF patients, the prevalence of low areal BMD (T-score < -2 at any site), was 20 % (95 % CI: [10.2 %; 32.4 %]). After infections, serum RANK-L (+24 %, p = 0.08) and OPG (+13 %, p = 0.04) were increased with a stable ratio. Microarchitectural differences were mostly observed at the distal tibia, with lower total and cortical vBMD and trabecular thickness (respectively -9.9, -3.0, and -5 %, p < 0.05) in CF patients compared to controls, after adjustment for age, gender, weight, and height.

CONCLUSIONS

In this study, bone disease among adult CF patients was less severe than that previously described with only 20 % of CF patients with low BMD. We found a mild increase of biological marker levels and an impaired volumetric density of the tibia that may explain the increased fracture risk in CF population.

Outcomes of stent retriever thrombectomy in basilar artery occlusion: an observational study and systematic review

BACKGROUND

Basilar artery occlusion (BAO) remains one of the most devastating subtypes of stroke with high mortality and poor outcome. Early recanalisation is the most powerful predictor of favourable outcome in patients with stroke, and may be improved with mechanical thrombectomy using stent retriever devices. However, the benefit in functional outcome and safety of stent retrievers are not yet well known. The aim of this study was to assess efficacy and safety profiles of stent retriever thrombectomy in BAO patients with stroke.

METHODS

We analysed data retrospectively from our consecutive clinical series and conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis of all previous studies of stent retriever thrombectomy in BAO patients with stroke between November 2010 and April 2014.

RESULTS

From March 2010 to March 2013, 22 patients with acute BAO were treated with a Solitaire stent retriever in our series. Favourable outcome was significantly associated with younger age and distal BAO. The literature search identified 15 previous studies involving a total of 312 subjects. In the meta-analysis, including our series data, the recanalisation rate (Thrombolysis In Cerebral Infarction (TICI) score ≥ 2b) reached 81% (95% CI 73% to 87%). The rate of symptomatic intracranial haemorrhage was 4% (95% CI 2% to 8%), favourable outcome (modified Rankin Scale (mRS) ≤ 2 at 3 months) was found in 42% (95% CI 36% to 48%) and mortality rate was 30% (95% CI 25% to 36%).

CONCLUSIONS

Stent retriever thrombectomy is a safe treatment modality for patients with stroke presenting with BAO. Although the stent retrievers showed a good recanalisation rate, there are currently no randomised clinical trials to assess its clinical efficacy in comparison with the reference treatment.

Rehabilitation of 190 non-ambulatory children with cerebral palsy in structures of care or in liberal sector

AIMS

To describe the rehabilitation of non-ambulatory children with cerebral palsy and to explore adjustability on their individual needs.

MATERIAL AND METHOD

Data described are extracted from an on-going national cohort study, following during 10years 385 children with cerebral palsy, aged from 4 to 10, Gross Motor Function Classification System IV and V. We analysed data from the first 190 patients (mean age 6years 10months (SD 2.0), 111 boys), focusing on physiotherapy, ergotherapy, psychomotility and speech therapy in medico-social and liberal sectors.

RESULTS

In medico-social sector, duration of paramedical care is significantly more important than in liberal sector (structure of care: median=4.25h/week, liberal sector: median=2.00h/week) (P<0.0001). More than 4 different types of care per week are given in medico-social sector, while in liberal sector children benefit from only 2 different types of care a week. In investigators opinion, rehabilitation in structures of care is 71.65% adapted as opposed to 18.75% in the liberal sector (P<0.001). Children level V have less time of rehabilitation than the others (P=0.0424).

INTERPRETATION

Rehabilitation of children with cerebral palsy who are not able to walk, with an objective to improve quality of life, is truly multidisciplinary and suitable in medico-social sector.

Benchmarking French regions according to their prevalence of healthcare-associated infections

OBJECTIVE

To propose an original method of benchmarking regions based on their prevalence of healthcare-associated infections (HAIs) and to identify regions with unusual results.

DESIGN

To study between-region variability with a three-level hierarchical logistic regression model and a Bayesian non-parametric method.

SETTING

French 2006 national HAIs point prevalence survey.

PARTICIPANTS

A total of 336 858 patients from 2289 healthcare facilities in 27 regions. Patients with an imported HAI (1% of the data, 20.7% of infected patients), facilities with <5 patients and patients who had at least one missing value for the variables taken into account were excluded (5.0% of patients).

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE

Binary outcome variable indicates whether a given patient was infected.

RESULTS

Two clusters of regions were identified: one cluster of five regions had a lower adjusted prevalence than the other one of 22 regions, while no region with unusually high prevalence could be identified. Nevertheless, the degree of heterogeneity of odds ratios between facilities for facility-specific effects of use of invasive devices was more important in some regions than in others.

CONCLUSIONS

The adjusted regional prevalence of HAIs can serve as an adequate benchmark to identify regions with concerning results. Although no outlier regions were identified, the proposed approach could be applied to the data of the 2012 national survey to benchmark regional healthcare policies. The estimation of facility-specific effects of use of invasive devices may orient future regional action plans.

Multifaceted intervention to decrease the rate of severe postpartum haemorrhage: the PITHAGORE6 cluster-randomised controlled trial

OBJECTIVE

Decreasing the prevalence of severe postpartum haemorrhages (PPH) is a major obstetrical challenge. These are often considered to be associated with substandard initial care. Strategies to increase the appropriateness of early management of PPH must be assessed. We tested the hypothesis that a multifaceted intervention aimed at increasing the translation into practice of a protocol for early management of PPH, would reduce the incidence of severe PPH.

DESIGN

Cluster-randomised trial.

POPULATION

106 maternity units in six French regions.

METHODS

Maternity units were randomly assigned to receive the intervention, or to have the protocol passively disseminated. The intervention combined outreach visits to discuss the protocol in each local context, reminders, and peer reviews of severe incidents, and was implemented in each maternity hospital by a team pairing an obstetrician and a midwife.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

The primary outcome was the incidence of severe PPH, defined as a composite of one or more of: transfusion, embolisation, surgical procedure, transfer to intensive care, peripartum haemoglobin decrease of 4 g/dl or more, death. The main secondary outcomes were PPH management practices.

RESULTS

The mean rate of severe PPH was 1.64% (SD 0.80) in the intervention units and 1.65% (SD 0.96) in control units; difference not significant. Some elements of PPH management were applied more frequently in intervention units-help from senior staff (P = 0.005), or tended to - second-line pharmacological treatment (P = 0.06), timely blood test (P = 0.09).

CONCLUSION

This educational intervention did not affect the rate of severe PPH as compared with control units, although it improved some practices.