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Devaraju N, Prudhomme R, Lungarska A, Wang X, Yin Z, de Noblet-Ducoudré N, Chakir R, Jayet PA, Brunelle T, Viovy N, De Palma A, Gonzalez R, Ciais P. Quantifying the benefits of reducing synthetic nitrogen application policy on ecosystem carbon sequestration and biodiversity. Sci Rep 2022; 12:20715. [PMID: 36456611 PMCID: PMC9715672 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-022-24794-2] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/31/2022] [Accepted: 11/21/2022] [Indexed: 12/05/2022] Open
Abstract
Synthetic Nitrogen (N) usage in agriculture has greatly increased food supply over the past century. However, the intensive use of N fertilizer is nevertheless the source of numerous environmental issues and remains a major challenge for policymakers to understand, measure, and quantify the interactions and trade-offs between ecosystem carbon and terrestrial biodiversity loss. In this study, we investigate the impacts of a public policy scenario that aims to halve N fertilizer application across European Union (EU) agriculture on both carbon (C) sequestration and biodiversity changes. We quantify the impacts by integrating two economic models with an agricultural land surface model and a terrestrial biodiversity model (that uses data from a range of taxonomic groups, including plants, fungi, vertebrates and invertebrates). Here, we show that the two economic scenarios lead to different outcomes in terms of C sequestration potential and biodiversity. Land abandonment associated with increased fertilizer price scenario facilitates higher C sequestration in soils (+ 1014 MtC) and similar species richness levels (+ 1.9%) at the EU scale. On the other hand, the more extensive crop production scenario is associated with lower C sequestration potential in soils (- 97 MtC) and similar species richness levels (- 0.4%) because of a lower area of grazing land. Our results therefore highlight the complexity of the environmental consequences of a nitrogen reduction policy, which will depend fundamentally on how the economic models used to project consequences.
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Affiliation(s)
- N. Devaraju
- grid.460789.40000 0004 4910 6535Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l`Environnement LSCE/IPSL, Unité Mixte CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, Université Paris-Saclay, 91191 Gif-Sur-Yvette, France ,grid.20709.3c0000 0004 0512 9137Present Address: Services for Computational Research, CSC - IT Center for Science, 02101 Espoo, Finland
| | - Rémi Prudhomme
- grid.8183.20000 0001 2153 9871CIRAD, UMR CIRED, 94736 Nogent-Sur-Marne, France
| | - Anna Lungarska
- grid.507621.7US ODR, INRAE, 31326 Castanet-Tolosan, France
| | - Xuhui Wang
- grid.11135.370000 0001 2256 9319College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Peking University, Beijing, China
| | - Zun Yin
- grid.460789.40000 0004 4910 6535Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l`Environnement LSCE/IPSL, Unité Mixte CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, Université Paris-Saclay, 91191 Gif-Sur-Yvette, France
| | - Nathalie de Noblet-Ducoudré
- grid.460789.40000 0004 4910 6535Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l`Environnement LSCE/IPSL, Unité Mixte CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, Université Paris-Saclay, 91191 Gif-Sur-Yvette, France
| | - Raja Chakir
- Université Paris-Saclay, INRAE, AgroParisTech, PSAE, 91120 Palaiseau, France
| | - Pierre-Alain Jayet
- Université Paris-Saclay, INRAE, AgroParisTech, PSAE, 91120 Palaiseau, France
| | - Thierry Brunelle
- grid.8183.20000 0001 2153 9871CIRAD, UMR CIRED, 94736 Nogent-Sur-Marne, France
| | - Nicolas Viovy
- grid.460789.40000 0004 4910 6535Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l`Environnement LSCE/IPSL, Unité Mixte CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, Université Paris-Saclay, 91191 Gif-Sur-Yvette, France
| | - Adriana De Palma
- grid.35937.3b0000 0001 2270 9879Department of Life Sciences, Natural History Museum, Cromwell Road, London, SW7 5BD UK
| | - Ricardo Gonzalez
- grid.35937.3b0000 0001 2270 9879Department of Life Sciences, Natural History Museum, Cromwell Road, London, SW7 5BD UK ,grid.7445.20000 0001 2113 8111Department of Life Sciences, Imperial College London, Silwood Park, Berkshire, SL5 7PY UK
| | - Philippe Ciais
- grid.460789.40000 0004 4910 6535Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l`Environnement LSCE/IPSL, Unité Mixte CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, Université Paris-Saclay, 91191 Gif-Sur-Yvette, France
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Harper AB, Powell T, Cox PM, House J, Huntingford C, Lenton TM, Sitch S, Burke E, Chadburn SE, Collins WJ, Comyn-Platt E, Daioglou V, Doelman JC, Hayman G, Robertson E, van Vuuren D, Wiltshire A, Webber CP, Bastos A, Boysen L, Ciais P, Devaraju N, Jain AK, Krause A, Poulter B, Shu S. Land-use emissions play a critical role in land-based mitigation for Paris climate targets. Nat Commun 2018; 9:2938. [PMID: 30087330 PMCID: PMC6081380 DOI: 10.1038/s41467-018-05340-z] [Citation(s) in RCA: 50] [Impact Index Per Article: 8.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/04/2017] [Accepted: 06/25/2018] [Indexed: 12/02/2022] Open
Abstract
Scenarios that limit global warming to below 2 °C by 2100 assume significant land-use change to support large-scale carbon dioxide (CO2) removal from the atmosphere by afforestation/reforestation, avoided deforestation, and Biomass Energy with Carbon Capture and Storage (BECCS). The more ambitious mitigation scenarios require even greater land area for mitigation and/or earlier adoption of CO2 removal strategies. Here we show that additional land-use change to meet a 1.5 °C climate change target could result in net losses of carbon from the land. The effectiveness of BECCS strongly depends on several assumptions related to the choice of biomass, the fate of initial above ground biomass, and the fossil-fuel emissions offset in the energy system. Depending on these factors, carbon removed from the atmosphere through BECCS could easily be offset by losses due to land-use change. If BECCS involves replacing high-carbon content ecosystems with crops, then forest-based mitigation could be more efficient for atmospheric CO2 removal than BECCS. Land-based mitigation for meeting the Paris climate target must consider the carbon cycle impacts of land-use change. Here the authors show that when bioenergy crops replace high carbon content ecosystems, forest-based mitigation could be more effective for CO2 removal than bioenergy crops with carbon capture and storage.
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Affiliation(s)
- Anna B Harper
- College of Engineering, Mathematics, and Physical Sciences, University of Exeter, Exeter, EX4 4QF, UK.
| | - Tom Powell
- College of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of Exeter, Exeter, EX4 4QF, UK
| | - Peter M Cox
- College of Engineering, Mathematics, and Physical Sciences, University of Exeter, Exeter, EX4 4QF, UK
| | - Joanna House
- School of Geographical Sciences, University of Bristol, Bristol, BS8 1SS, UK
| | | | - Timothy M Lenton
- College of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of Exeter, Exeter, EX4 4QF, UK
| | - Stephen Sitch
- College of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of Exeter, Exeter, EX4 4QF, UK
| | - Eleanor Burke
- Met Office Hadley Centre, FitzRoy Road, Exeter, EX1 3PB, UK
| | - Sarah E Chadburn
- College of Engineering, Mathematics, and Physical Sciences, University of Exeter, Exeter, EX4 4QF, UK.,University of Leeds, Leeds, LS2 9JT, UK
| | - William J Collins
- Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, RG6 6BB, UK
| | | | - Vassilis Daioglou
- Department of Climate, Air and Energy, Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL), PO Box 30314, 2500 GH, The Hague, Netherlands.,Copernicus Institute of Sustainable Development, Utrecht University, Heidelberglaan 2, 3584 CS, Utrecht, The Netherlands
| | - Jonathan C Doelman
- Department of Climate, Air and Energy, Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL), PO Box 30314, 2500 GH, The Hague, Netherlands
| | - Garry Hayman
- Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Wallingford, OX10 8BB, UK
| | - Eddy Robertson
- Met Office Hadley Centre, FitzRoy Road, Exeter, EX1 3PB, UK
| | - Detlef van Vuuren
- Department of Climate, Air and Energy, Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL), PO Box 30314, 2500 GH, The Hague, Netherlands.,Copernicus Institute of Sustainable Development, Utrecht University, Heidelberglaan 2, 3584 CS, Utrecht, The Netherlands
| | - Andy Wiltshire
- Met Office Hadley Centre, FitzRoy Road, Exeter, EX1 3PB, UK
| | | | - Ana Bastos
- Department of Geography, Ludwig Maximilians University Munich, Luisenstr. 37, 80333, Munich, Germany.,Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, LSCE/IPSL, CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, Université Paris-Saclay, 91191, Gif-sur-Yvette, France
| | - Lena Boysen
- The Land in the Earth System, Max-Planck Institute for Meteorology, Bundesstrasse 53, 20146, Hamburg, Germany
| | - Philippe Ciais
- Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, LSCE/IPSL, CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, Université Paris-Saclay, 91191, Gif-sur-Yvette, France
| | - Narayanappa Devaraju
- Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, LSCE/IPSL, CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, Université Paris-Saclay, 91191, Gif-sur-Yvette, France
| | - Atul K Jain
- Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Illinois, Urbana, IL, 61801, USA
| | - Andreas Krause
- Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research-Atmospheric Environmental Research (IMK-IFU), Kreuzeckbahnstr. 19, Garmisch-Partenkirchen, 82467, Germany
| | - Ben Poulter
- NASA GSFC, Biospheric Sciences Lab., Greenbelt, MD, 20771, USA
| | - Shijie Shu
- Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Illinois, Urbana, IL, 61801, USA
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Devaraju N, Bala G, Nemani R. Modelling the influence of land-use changes on biophysical and biochemical interactions at regional and global scales. Plant Cell Environ 2015; 38:1931-1946. [PMID: 25410808 DOI: 10.1111/pce.12488] [Citation(s) in RCA: 23] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/02/2014] [Revised: 11/07/2014] [Accepted: 11/12/2014] [Indexed: 06/04/2023]
Abstract
Land-use changes since the start of the industrial era account for nearly one-third of the cumulative anthropogenic CO2 emissions. In addition to the greenhouse effect of CO2 emissions, changes in land use also affect climate via changes in surface physical properties such as albedo, evapotranspiration and roughness length. Recent modelling studies suggest that these biophysical components may be comparable with biochemical effects. In regard to climate change, the effects of these two distinct processes may counterbalance one another both regionally and, possibly, globally. In this article, through hypothetical large-scale deforestation simulations using a global climate model, we contrast the implications of afforestation on ameliorating or enhancing anthropogenic contributions from previously converted (agricultural) land surfaces. Based on our review of past studies on this subject, we conclude that the sum of both biophysical and biochemical effects should be assessed when large-scale afforestation is used for countering global warming, and the net effect on global mean temperature change depends on the location of deforestation/afforestation. Further, although biochemical effects trigger global climate change, biophysical effects often cause strong local and regional climate change. The implication of the biophysical effects for adaptation and mitigation of climate change in agriculture and agroforestry sectors is discussed.
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Affiliation(s)
- N Devaraju
- Divecha Centre for Climate Change and Centre for Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Indian Institute of Science, Bangalore, 560012, India
| | - G Bala
- Divecha Centre for Climate Change and Centre for Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Indian Institute of Science, Bangalore, 560012, India
| | - R Nemani
- Ecological Forecasting Laboratory, NASA Ames Research Center, Moffett Field, CA, 94035, USA
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