Sequences of cognitive decline in typical Alzheimer's disease and posterior cortical atrophy estimated using a novel event-based model of disease progression

Introduction

This work aims to characterize the sequence in which cognitive deficits appear in two dementia syndromes.

Methods

Event‐based modeling estimated fine‐grained sequences of cognitive decline in clinically‐diagnosed posterior cortical atrophy (PCA) (n=94) and typical Alzheimer's disease (tAD) (n=61) at the UCL Dementia Research Centre. Our neuropsychological battery assessed memory, vision, arithmetic, and general cognition. We adapted the event‐based model to handle highly non‐Gaussian data such as cognitive test scores where ceiling/floor effects are common.

Results

Experiments revealed differences and similarities in the fine‐grained ordering of cognitive decline in PCA (vision first) and tAD (memory first). Simulation experiments reveal that our new model equals or exceeds performance of the classic event‐based model, especially for highly non‐Gaussian data.

Discussion

Our model recovered realistic, phenotypical progression signatures that may be applied in dementia clinical trials for enrichment, and as a data‐driven composite cognitive end‐point.

Progression of regional grey matter atrophy in multiple sclerosis

See Stankoff and Louapre (doi:10.1093/brain/awy114) for a scientific commentary on this article.

Grey matter atrophy is present from the earliest stages of multiple sclerosis, but its temporal ordering is poorly understood. We aimed to determine the sequence in which grey matter regions become atrophic in multiple sclerosis and its association with disability accumulation. In this longitudinal study, we included 1417 subjects: 253 with clinically isolated syndrome, 708 with relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis, 128 with secondary-progressive multiple sclerosis, 125 with primary-progressive multiple sclerosis, and 203 healthy control subjects from seven European centres. Subjects underwent repeated MRI (total number of scans 3604); the mean follow-up for patients was 2.41 years (standard deviation = 1.97). Disability was scored using the Expanded Disability Status Scale. We calculated the volume of brain grey matter regions and brainstem using an unbiased within-subject template and used an established data-driven event-based model to determine the sequence of occurrence of atrophy and its uncertainty. We assigned each subject to a specific event-based model stage, based on the number of their atrophic regions. Linear mixed-effects models were used to explore associations between the rate of increase in event-based model stages, and T₂ lesion load, disease-modifying treatments, comorbidity, disease duration and disability accumulation. The first regions to become atrophic in patients with clinically isolated syndrome and relapse-onset multiple sclerosis were the posterior cingulate cortex and precuneus, followed by the middle cingulate cortex, brainstem and thalamus. A similar sequence of atrophy was detected in primary-progressive multiple sclerosis with the involvement of the thalamus, cuneus, precuneus, and pallidum, followed by the brainstem and posterior cingulate cortex. The cerebellum, caudate and putamen showed early atrophy in relapse-onset multiple sclerosis and late atrophy in primary-progressive multiple sclerosis. Patients with secondary-progressive multiple sclerosis showed the highest event-based model stage (the highest number of atrophic regions, P < 0.001) at the study entry. All multiple sclerosis phenotypes, but clinically isolated syndrome, showed a faster rate of increase in the event-based model stage than healthy controls. T₂ lesion load and disease duration in all patients were associated with increased event-based model stage, but no effects of disease-modifying treatments and comorbidity on event-based model stage were observed. The annualized rate of event-based model stage was associated with the disability accumulation in relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis, independent of disease duration (P < 0.0001). The data-driven staging of atrophy progression in a large multiple sclerosis sample demonstrates that grey matter atrophy spreads to involve more regions over time. The sequence in which regions become atrophic is reasonably consistent across multiple sclerosis phenotypes. The spread of atrophy was associated with disease duration and with disability accumulation over time in relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis.

Longitudinal neuroanatomical and cognitive progression of posterior cortical atrophy

Posterior cortical atrophy is a clinico-radiological syndrome characterized by progressive decline in visual processing and atrophy of posterior brain regions. With the majority of cases attributable to Alzheimer's disease and recent evidence for genetic risk factors specifically related to posterior cortical atrophy, the syndrome can provide important insights into selective vulnerability and phenotypic diversity. The present study describes the first major longitudinal investigation of posterior cortical atrophy disease progression. Three hundred and sixty-one individuals (117 posterior cortical atrophy, 106 typical Alzheimer's disease, 138 controls) fulfilling consensus criteria for posterior cortical atrophy-pure and typical Alzheimer's disease were recruited from three centres in the UK, Spain and USA. Participants underwent up to six annual assessments involving MRI scans and neuropsychological testing. We constructed longitudinal trajectories of regional brain volumes within posterior cortical atrophy and typical Alzheimer's disease using differential equation models. We compared and contrasted the order in which regional brain volumes become abnormal within posterior cortical atrophy and typical Alzheimer's disease using event-based models. We also examined trajectories of cognitive decline and the order in which different cognitive tests show abnormality using the same models. Temporally aligned trajectories for eight regions of interest revealed distinct (P < 0.002) patterns of progression in posterior cortical atrophy and typical Alzheimer's disease. Patients with posterior cortical atrophy showed early occipital and parietal atrophy, with subsequent higher rates of temporal atrophy and ventricular expansion leading to tissue loss of comparable extent later. Hippocampal, entorhinal and frontal regions underwent a lower rate of change and never approached the extent of posterior cortical involvement. Patients with typical Alzheimer's disease showed early hippocampal atrophy, with subsequent higher rates of temporal atrophy and ventricular expansion. Cognitive models showed tests sensitive to visuospatial dysfunction declined earlier in posterior cortical atrophy than typical Alzheimer's disease whilst tests sensitive to working memory impairment declined earlier in typical Alzheimer's disease than posterior cortical atrophy. These findings indicate that posterior cortical atrophy and typical Alzheimer's disease have distinct sites of onset and different profiles of spatial and temporal progression. The ordering of disease events both motivates investigation of biological factors underpinning phenotypic heterogeneity, and informs the selection of measures for clinical trials in posterior cortical atrophy.

Conceptualising and Understanding Artistic Creativity in the Dementias: Interdisciplinary Approaches to Research and Practise

Creativity research has a substantial history in psychology and related disciplines; one component of this research tradition has specifically examined artistic creativity. Creativity theories have tended to concentrate, however, on creativity as an individual phenomenon that results in a novel production, and on cognitive aspects of creativity, often limiting its applicability to people with cognitive impairments, including those with a dementia. Despite growing indications that creativity is important for the wellbeing of people living with dementias, it is less well understood how creativity might be conceptualised, measured and recognised in this population, and how this understanding could influence research and practise. This paper begins by exploring prevailing concepts of creativity and assesses their relevance to dementia, followed by a critique of creativity and dementia research related to the arts. Perspectives from researchers, artists, formal and informal caregivers and those with a dementia are addressed. We then introduce several novel psychological and physiological approaches to better understand artistic-related creativity in this population and conclude with a conceptualisation of artistic creativity in the dementias to help guide future research and practise.

Discovering Highly Potent Molecules from an Initial Set of Inactives Using Iterative Screening

The versatility of similarity searching and quantitative structure-activity relationships to model the activity of compound sets within given bioactivity ranges (i.e., interpolation) is well established. However, their relative performance in the common scenario in early stage drug discovery where lots of inactive data but no active data points are available (i.e., extrapolation from the low-activity to the high-activity range) has not been thoroughly examined yet. To this aim, we have designed an iterative virtual screening strategy which was evaluated on 25 diverse bioactivity data sets from ChEMBL. We benchmark the efficiency of random forest (RF), multiple linear regression, ridge regression, similarity searching, and random selection of compounds to identify a highly active molecule in the test set among a large number of low-potency compounds. We use the number of iterations required to find this active molecule to evaluate the performance of each experimental setup. We show that linear and ridge regression often outperform RF and similarity searching, reducing the number of iterations to find an active compound by a factor of 2 or more. Even simple regression methods seem better able to extrapolate to high-bioactivity ranges than RF, which only provides output values in the range covered by the training set. In addition, examination of the scaffold diversity in the data sets used shows that in some cases similarity searching and RF require two times as many iterations as random selection depending on the chemical space covered in the initial training data. Lastly, we show using bioactivity data for COX-1 and COX-2 that our framework can be extended to multitarget drug discovery, where compounds are selected by concomitantly considering their activity against multiple targets. Overall, this study provides an approach for iterative screening where only inactive data are present in early stages of drug discovery in order to discover highly potent compounds and the best experimental set up in which to do so.

Aging related cognitive changes associated with Alzheimer's disease in Down syndrome

OBJECTIVE

Individuals with Down syndrome (DS) have an extremely high genetic risk for Alzheimer's disease (AD), however, the course of cognitive decline associated with progression to dementia is ill-defined. Data-driven methods can estimate long-term trends from cross-sectional data while adjusting for variability in baseline ability, which complicates dementia assessment in those with DS.

METHODS

We applied an event-based model to cognitive test data and informant-rated questionnaire data from 283 adults with DS (the largest study of cognitive functioning in DS to date) to estimate the sequence of cognitive decline and individuals' disease stage.

RESULTS

Decline in tests of memory, sustained attention/motor coordination, and verbal fluency occurred early, demonstrating that AD in DS follows a similar pattern of change to other forms of AD. Later decline was found for informant measures. Using the resulting staging model, we showed that adults with a clinical diagnosis of dementia and those with APOE 3:4 or 4:4 genotype were significantly more likely to be staged later, suggesting that the model is valid.

INTERPRETATION

Our results identify tests of memory and sustained attention may be particularly useful measures to track decline in the preclinical/prodromal stages of AD in DS whereas informant-measures may be useful in later stages (i.e. during conversion into dementia, or postdiagnosis). These results have implications for the selection of outcome measures of treatment trials to delay or prevent cognitive decline due to AD in DS. As clinical diagnoses are generally made late into AD progression, early assessment is essential.

An image-based model of brain volume biomarker changes in Huntington's disease

Objective

Determining the sequence in which Huntington's disease biomarkers become abnormal can provide important insights into the disease progression and a quantitative tool for patient stratification. Here, we construct and present a uniquely fine‐grained model of temporal progression of Huntington's disease from premanifest through to manifest stages.

Methods

We employ a probabilistic event‐based model to determine the sequence of appearance of atrophy in brain volumes, learned from structural MRI in the Track‐HD study, as well as to estimate the uncertainty in the ordering. We use longitudinal and phenotypic data to demonstrate the utility of the patient staging system that the resulting model provides.

Results

The model recovers the following order of detectable changes in brain region volumes: putamen, caudate, pallidum, insula white matter, nonventricular cerebrospinal fluid, amygdala, optic chiasm, third ventricle, posterior insula, and basal forebrain. This ordering is mostly preserved even under cross‐validation of the uncertainty in the event sequence. Longitudinal analysis performed using 6 years of follow‐up data from baseline confirms efficacy of the model, as subjects consistently move to later stages with time, and significant correlations are observed between the estimated stages and nonimaging phenotypic markers.

Interpretation

We used a data‐driven method to provide new insight into Huntington's disease progression as well as new power to stage and predict conversion. Our results highlight the potential of disease progression models, such as the event‐based model, to provide new insight into Huntington's disease progression and to support fine‐grained patient stratification for future precision medicine in Huntington's disease.

Data-Driven Sequence of Changes to Anatomical Brain Connectivity in Sporadic Alzheimer's Disease

Model-based investigations of transneuronal spreading mechanisms in neurodegenerative diseases relate the pattern of pathology severity to the brain's connectivity matrix, which reveals information about how pathology propagates through the connectivity network. Such network models typically use networks based on functional or structural connectivity in young and healthy individuals, and only end-stage patterns of pathology, thereby ignoring/excluding the effects of normal aging and disease progression. Here, we examine the sequence of changes in the elderly brain's anatomical connectivity over the course of a neurodegenerative disease. We do this in a data-driven manner that is not dependent upon clinical disease stage, by using event-based disease progression modeling. Using data from the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative dataset, we sequence the progressive decline of anatomical connectivity, as quantified by graph-theory metrics, in the Alzheimer's disease brain. Ours is the first single model to contribute to understanding all three of the nature, the location, and the sequence of changes to anatomical connectivity in the human brain due to Alzheimer's disease. Our experimental results reveal new insights into Alzheimer's disease: that degeneration of anatomical connectivity in the brain may be a viable, even early, biomarker and should be considered when studying such neurodegenerative diseases.

Eyetracking Metrics in Young Onset Alzheimer's Disease: A Window into Cognitive Visual Functions

Young onset Alzheimer's disease (YOAD) is defined as symptom onset before the age of 65 years and is particularly associated with phenotypic heterogeneity. Atypical presentations, such as the clinic-radiological visual syndrome posterior cortical atrophy (PCA), often lead to delays in accurate diagnosis. Eyetracking has been used to demonstrate basic oculomotor impairments in individuals with dementia. In the present study, we aim to explore the relationship between eyetracking metrics and standard tests of visual cognition in individuals with YOAD. Fifty-seven participants were included: 36 individuals with YOAD (n = 26 typical AD; n = 10 PCA) and 21 age-matched healthy controls. Participants completed three eyetracking experiments: fixation, pro-saccade, and smooth pursuit tasks. Summary metrics were used as outcome measures and their predictive value explored looking at correlations with visuoperceptual and visuospatial metrics. Significant correlations between eyetracking metrics and standard visual cognitive estimates are reported. A machine-learning approach using a classification method based on the smooth pursuit raw eyetracking data discriminates with approximately 95% accuracy patients and controls in cross-validation tests. Results suggest that the eyetracking paradigms of a relatively simple and specific nature provide measures not only reflecting basic oculomotor characteristics but also predicting higher order visuospatial and visuoperceptual impairments. Eyetracking measures can represent extremely useful markers during the diagnostic phase and may be exploited as potential outcome measures for clinical trials.

Plane of best fit: a novel method to characterize the three-dimensionality of molecules

We describe a computational method, plane of best fit (PBF), to quantify and characterize the 3D character of molecules. This method is rapid and amenable to analysis of large diverse data sets. We compare PBF with alternative literature methods used to assess 3D character and apply the method to diverse data sets of fragment-like, drug-like, and natural product compound libraries. We show that exemplar fragment libraries underexploit the potential of 3D character in fragment-like chemical space and that drug-like molecules in the libraries examined are predominantly 2D in character.