Accuracy of clinical predictions of prognosis at the end-of-life: evidence from routinely collected data in urgent care records

BACKGROUND

The accuracy of prognostication has important implications for patients, families, and health services since it may be linked to clinical decision-making, patient experience and outcomes and resource allocation. Study aim is to evaluate the accuracy of temporal predictions of survival in patients with cancer, dementia, heart, or respiratory disease.

METHODS

Accuracy of clinical prediction was evaluated using retrospective, observational cohort study of 98,187 individuals with a Coordinate My Care record, the Electronic Palliative Care Coordination System serving London, 2010-2020. The survival times of patients were summarised using median and interquartile ranges. Kaplan Meier survival curves were created to describe and compare survival across prognostic categories and disease trajectories. The extent of agreement between estimated and actual prognosis was quantified using linear weighted Kappa statistic.

RESULTS

Overall, 3% were predicted to live "days"; 13% "weeks"; 28% "months"; and 56% "year/years". The agreement between estimated and actual prognosis using linear weighted Kappa statistic was highest for patients with dementia/frailty (0.75) and cancer (0.73). Clinicians' estimates were able to discriminate (log-rank p < 0.001) between groups of patients with differing survival prospects. Across all disease groups, the accuracy of survival estimates was high for patients who were likely to live for fewer than 14 days (74% accuracy) or for more than one year (83% accuracy), but less accurate at predicting survival of "weeks" or "months" (32% accuracy).

CONCLUSION

Clinicians are good at identifying individuals who will die imminently and those who will live for much longer. The accuracy of prognostication for these time frames differs across major disease categories, but remains acceptable even in non-cancer patients, including patients with dementia. Advance Care Planning and timely access to palliative care based on individual patient needs may be beneficial for those where there is significant prognostic uncertainty; those who are neither imminently dying nor expected to live for "years".

Prognostic evaluation in patients with advanced cancer in the last months of life: ESMO Clinical Practice Guideline

•This ESMO Clinical Practice Guideline provides key recommendations for using prognostic estimates in advanced cancer. •The guideline covers recommendations for patients with cancer and an expected survival of months or less. •An algorithm for use of clinical predictions, prognostic factors and multivariable risk prediction models is presented. •The author group encompasses a multidisciplinary group of experts from different institutions in Europe, USA and Asia. •Recommendations are based on available scientific data and the authors’ collective expert opinion.

Prognostic tools or clinical predictions: Which are better in palliative care?

PURPOSE

The Palliative Prognostic (PaP) score; Palliative Prognostic Index (PPI); Feliu Prognostic Nomogram (FPN) and Palliative Performance Scale (PPS) have all been proposed as prognostic tools for palliative cancer care. However, clinical judgement remains the principal way by which palliative care professionals determine prognoses and it is important that the performance of prognostic tools is compared against clinical predictions of survival (CPS).

METHODS

This was a multi-centre, cohort validation study of prognostic tools. Study participants were adults with advanced cancer receiving palliative care, with or without capacity to consent. Key prognostic data were collected at baseline, shortly after referral to palliative care services. CPS were obtained independently from a doctor and a nurse.

RESULTS

Prognostic data were collected on 1833 participants. All prognostic tools showed acceptable discrimination and calibration, but none showed superiority to CPS. Both PaP and CPS were equally able to accurately categorise patients according to their risk of dying within 30 days. There was no difference in performance between CPS and FPN at stratifying patients according to their risk of dying at 15, 30 or 60 days. PPI was significantly (p<0.001) worse than CPS at predicting which patients would survive for 3 or 6 weeks. PPS and CPS were both able to discriminate palliative care patients into multiple iso-prognostic groups.

CONCLUSIONS

Although four commonly used prognostic algorithms for palliative care generally showed good discrimination and calibration, none of them demonstrated superiority to CPS. Prognostic tools which are less accurate than CPS are of no clinical use. However, prognostic tools which perform similarly to CPS may have other advantages to recommend them for use in clinical practice (e.g. being more objective, more reproducible, acting as a second opinion or as an educational tool). Future studies should therefore assess the impact of prognostic tools on clinical practice and decision-making.

Awareness in severe Alzheimer's disease: a systematic review

Objective: There is limited understanding about how people in the severe stages of Alzheimer's disease (AD) experience and demonstrate awareness. We synthesised all available evidence with the aim of understanding how awareness is preserved or impaired in severe AD and what evidence there is for different levels of awareness according to the levels of awareness framework.Method: A systematic search of the following databases: Embase, PsycINFO, MEDLINE and Web of Science was carried out. A narrative synthesis and analysis was conducted of all included studies. All studies were assessed for quality using the AXIS and CASP tools.Results: Our findings suggest that lower level sensory awareness is relatively maintained in severe AD. Findings for higher level awareness are variable and this may be related to the diversity of methods that have been used to explore awareness in these circumstances.Conclusion: Awareness is complex, heterogeneous and varies significantly between individuals. Environmental and contextual factors have a significant impact on whether awareness is observed in people with severe AD. Adaptation of the environment has the potential to facilitate the expression of awareness while education of caregivers may increase understanding of people with severe AD and potentially improve the quality of care that is received.

Sex-related differences in geometry, plaques and shear stress related plaque-progression in human coronary arteries

Background

Atherosclerosis manifests itself differently in women compared to men. Since the pathophysiology of atherosclerotic plaques is known to be related to endothelial shear stress (ESS), it was hypothesized that female compared to male coronary arteries demonstrate a different i) ESS and ii) ESS related plaque progression.

Methods

1183 coronary arteries (male/female:944/239) from the PREDICTION trial were studied for differences in vessel geometry (plaque area (PA) and lumen area (LA)), hemodynamic parameters (flow, minimal ESS over 90 degree arc (minESS) and maximal ESS over 90 degree arc (maxESS)) and ESS related plaque progression (1 year follow up) measured as change in maximal plaque thickness and plaque burden comparing female to male arteries. Arterial geometry and ESS measures were derived from IVUS-based vascular profiling and reported per 3 mm segments. For plaque progression studies minESS was subdivided into low, mid and high (&lt;1,1–1.7,&gt;1.7 Pa). To test statistical differences univariate anova or linear mixed models were used.

Results

13030 3mm-segments (m/f: 10.465/2565) were analyzed. Female compared to male coronary arteries were smaller and presented with less plaque area (Table I). No differences in average ESS, minESS and maxESS were found for male versus female coronary arteries, partly explained by the lower flows in female arteries (Table I). The ESS-related plaque growth showed for both sexes an significant inverse relationship between maximal wall thickness (Figure, left) and plaque burden (Figure, right) and the three minESS categories. However, ESS-related plaque growth was not different for male vs females.

Conclusion

Our data demonstrated that vessel and plaque size are smaller in female compared to male coronary arteries. However, ESS and ESS related plaque progression were not different.

Shear stress related plaque progression

Funding Acknowledgement

Type of funding source: None

Coronary plaque natural history displays significant longitudinal heterogeneity along the length of individual coronary plaques

Background

The natural history of plaque growth is, among other systemic risk factors, related to the blood flow induced local shear stress. Especially at regions of low shear stress plaques are initiated. Upon plaque encroachment into the lumen, plaques will be exposed to high shear stress. Interestingly, it has been observed that individual plaques are very heterogeneous regarding the local shear stress exposure and remodeling patterns along the plaque length. However no information is available on the spatial heterogeneity of temporal changes in plaques burden. We studied the longitudinal spatial heterogeneity of plaque burden progression, regression, quiescence in human coronary plaques.

Methods

591 coronary arteries from 302 patients with coronary artery disease who presented with an acute coronary syndrome from the PREDICTION study were investigated for local plaque progression, regression, quiescence patterns after 6–10 months follow up. Arterial geometry was derived from angiography/IVUS-based vascular profiling and reported in 3 mm segments. Plaques were defined as &gt;3 consecutive segments with maximal wall thickness&gt;0.5 mm. Plaque progression was defined as &gt;5% increase, regression as &lt;−5% decrease, and quiescence as no change in plaque burden (plaque area/ total vessel area * 100%). Logistic mixed model regression analysis was performed with plaque progression features as outcome and plaque length as independent variable with vessel as random factor to account for clustering of the data.

Results

5658 3mm-segments of 661 plaques were analyzed. Plaque burden changes over time ranged from −22% to +20%, with an average of −0.4%±4% which was not significant different from 0. Among all plaques, 56% showed segments with plaque progression of more than 5%, 60% with plaque regression (&lt;−5%) and 96% of the plaques had segments that did not change over time (quiescence). On average, 17% of the plaque length displayed plaque progression, 20% regression and 63% was quiescent. The presence and number of features (progression, regression, quiescence) within the plaque were significantly related to the plaque length (figure).

Conclusion

Plaques are very heterogeneous in plaque progression patterns. Most of the plaques show within the plaque length simultaneously more than one plaque progression feature (segments that do not change in plaque burden, segments that regress or progress). The number of observed plaque progression features was related to the plaque length.

Funding Acknowledgement

Type of funding source: None

Association between the progression of aortic valve calcification and coronary atherosclerotic plaque volume

Background

It is unclear whether the annual progression of aortic valve calcification (AVC) is associated with the progression of coronary atherosclerosis.

Purpose

We explored the association between AVC and the total and compositional plaque volume (PV) progression.

Methods

We performed a prospective multinational registry of consecutive patients who underwent serial coronary computed tomography angiography (CTA) at ≥2-year intervals. AVC, and total and compositional PV at baseline and follow-up were quantitatively analyzed. Multivariate linear regression models were constructed.

Results

Overall, 594 patients (56% male, 61.5±9.7 years old) were included (mean coronary CTA interval, 3.9±1.5 years). At baseline, AVC was 30.9±117.3. Normalized total PV at baseline was 122.3±219.4mm3, encompassing 41.9±116.8mm3 of calcified PV and 80.4±131.5mm3 of non-calcified PV. After adjustment of age, sex, clinical risk factors, and drug use, AVC at baseline was independently associated with total and all compositional PVs (all p&lt;0.001). However, at follow-up, the annual progression of AVC was only associated with the annual progression of calcified PV (β=0.149, p=0.0089), but not with total and non-calcified PVs (all p&gt;0.05) (Table, Figure).

Conclusion

The overall burden of coronary atherosclerosis is associated with AVC at baseline. However, the progression of AVC is associated only with the progression of calcified PV but not with that of total and non-calcified PV.

Representative case

Funding Acknowledgement

Type of funding source: Public grant(s) – National budget only. Main funding source(s): The National Research Foundation (NRF) of Korea funded by the Ministry of Science and ICT (MSIT)

Making equal rights to health an election issue in NZ local body elections

In New Zealand there are 20 district health boards (DHBs) with local elections every 3 years. There is low voter turnout for these, we suspect because the public has low cognizance of the role DHBs have in governing their health and disability system. Good governance ensures everyone whatever ethnicity, gender or sexual proclivity, from birth to old age, able or disabled, mentally well or unwell, drugfree or addicted, has equal rights of dignified access to healthcare. Without public engagement in DHB elections, the community risks having candidates elected that also don't understand their role through a preventative public health framework or human rights lens. The United Community Action Network (UCAN) developed a human rights framework and Health Charter for people driven into poverty by the costs of staying well in NZ. The framework outlines 6 social determinants of health needing protection through policy, to ensure all enjoy their rights to health. UCAN and the Public Health Association of New Zealand (PHA) partnered to raise public and the candidates' awareness during 2019 elections, of these social determinants causing inequity in health outcomes. A series of short explainer-videos were created for sharing through social media during the election build-up period, helping to promote PHA Branches' public Meet the Candidates events. Post-election, a longer film was produced to send to the elected DHB members. Our theory of change centred on spotlighting health inequity for voters, so that they would elect DHB members who had the greatest understanding and commitment to addressing this issue. With shareable videos we aimed to attract audience, raise awareness and debate the policy solutions to health inequity with candidates, enabling more informed choice amongst the voting public. Post-election, we maintain supportive relationships with the elected DHB members that promised their commitment to our Health Charter during their campaigns.

Key messages

Using videos and social media, local body elections provide an opportunity to promote everyone’s right to affordable healthcare, supporting and informing voter decision-making. UCAN's Health Charter is an advocacy resource for raising awareness of the social determinants of health inequity and poverty for people with mental illness, addiction and disability.

A scorecard for local body election candidates in New Zealand

Local elections are held every 3 years in NZ for District Health Boards (DHB). The public has low capability to scrutinise candidates for their knowledge/experience in public health governance. As a result, there is low voting turn-out for elections. So, 3 PHA branches developed scorecards for 2019 candidates. Our aims addressed 3 problems: 1. How to raise public awareness about local DHB elections 2. How to engage voters and provide them with information about candidates from a public health perspective 3.Can we encourage candidates to discuss public health issues/ preventative measures publicly. We hoped to promote democracy by increasing informed voter turnout. Scorecards were based on candidates' responses to a survey with 3 dimensions: alignment with public health values; health sector governance experience; views on a specific public health issue (water fluoridation). Survey responses were scored by panels of branch members. Southern branch sent the survey to 28 DHB candidates across 2 DHBs, and 24 replied in time. Wellington branch sent it to 23 CCDHB candidates and 16 replied in time. Canterbury's response rate was just over 50%, 11 of 21 surveys were returned.

We produced scorecards for results in formats for printing and sharing online. We shared them on PHA's website, social media and featured them in the e-newsletter. Each branch launched them at local Meet the DHB Candidate events where hundreds of paper copies were distributed. There was good online interest in the scorecards: 3453 previews, 287 downloads for further printing/distribution. Many candidates committed, if elected, to policy solutions presented them at our events. There was significant increase (684 in Southern, 698 in Wellington, 2006 in Canterbury) in DHB voter turnout in 2019, compared to last election with no scorecards. Not all top-scoring candidates were subsequently elected onto respective DHBs, but for Wellington and Southland all elected had high scores.

Key messages

PHANZ plays a role in supporting NZ democracy by filling a gap in public information about election candidates, whether they are fit for purpose when scrutinised through the public health lens. Election Scorecard are effective for raising public awareness, providing scrutiny of the candidates from a public health perspective, encouraging candidates to consider public health issues.

Expressive writing as a therapeutic intervention for people with advanced disease: a systematic review

Background

Expressive writing involves writing about stressful or traumatic experiences. Despite trials in people with advanced disease, no systematic review to date has critiqued the evidence on expressive writing in this population. To synthesise the evidence of the effects of expressive writing on pain, sleep, depression and anxiety in people with advanced disease.

Methods

A systematic review according to the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses guidelines. CINAHL, CENTRAL, PsycINFO and PubMed were searched from January 1986 to March 2018. Other sources included clinical data registers and conference proceedings. Studies were included if they were randomised controlled trials that assessed the impact of an intervention involving expressive writing for adults with advanced disease and/or studies involving linguistic analysis on the expressive writing output. Methodological quality was assessed using the Cochrane risk of bias tool and the Mixed Methods Appraisal Tool. The Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development and Evaluation tool was used to assess the level of evidence for the outcomes of interest. The protocol of this systematic review has been registered on PROSPERO (CRD42017058193).

Results

Six eligible studies with a total of 288 participants were identified, including four randomised controlled trials. All of the trials were in cancer and recruited predominantly women. None of the interventions were tailored to the population. Studies had methodological shortcomings and evidence was generally of low quality. Combined analysis of the four trials, involving 214 participants in total, showed no clear difference in the effect of expressive writing on sleep, anxiety or depression compared to an active control. Pain was not evaluated in the trials. In contrast, analysis of the four studies that included linguistic analysis alluded to linguistic mechanisms for potential effects.

Conclusion

Although the trial results suggest there is no benefit in expressive writing for people with advanced disease, the current evidence is limited. There is a need for more rigorous trials. It would be of benefit first to undertake exploratory research in trial design including how best to measure impact and in tailoring of the intervention to address the specific needs of people with advanced disease.

Trial registration

The protocol of this systematic review has been registered on PROSPERO, which can be accessed here (registration number: CRD42017058193).

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1186/s12904-019-0449-y) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Predicting COPD 1-year mortality using prognostic predictors routinely measured in primary care

BACKGROUND

Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is a major cause of mortality. Patients with advanced disease often have a poor quality of life, such that guidelines recommend providing palliative care in their last year of life. Uptake and use of palliative care in advanced COPD is low; difficulty in predicting 1-year mortality is thought to be a major contributing factor.

METHODS

We identified two primary care COPD cohorts using UK electronic healthcare records (Clinical Practice Research Datalink). The first cohort was randomised equally into training and test sets. An external dataset was drawn from a second cohort. A risk model to predict mortality within 12 months was derived from the training set using backwards elimination Cox regression. The model was given the acronym BARC based on putative prognostic factors including body mass index and blood results (B), age (A), respiratory variables (airflow obstruction, exacerbations, smoking) (R) and comorbidities (C). The BARC index predictive performance was validated in the test set and external dataset by assessing calibration and discrimination. The observed and expected probabilities of death were assessed for increasing quartiles of mortality risk (very low risk, low risk, moderate risk, high risk). The BARC index was compared to the established index scores body mass index, obstructive, dyspnoea and exacerbations (BODEx), dyspnoea, obstruction, smoking and exacerbations (DOSE) and age, dyspnoea and obstruction (ADO).

RESULTS

Fifty-four thousand nine hundred ninety patients were eligible from the first cohort and 4931 from the second cohort. Eighteen variables were included in the BARC, including age, airflow obstruction, body mass index, smoking, exacerbations and comorbidities. The risk model had acceptable predictive performance (test set: C-index = 0.79, 95% CI 0.78-0.81, D-statistic = 1.87, 95% CI 1.77-1.96, calibration slope = 0.95, 95% CI 0.9-0.99; external dataset: C-index = 0.67, 95% CI 0.65-0.7, D-statistic = 0.98, 95% CI 0.8-1.2, calibration slope = 0.54, 95% CI 0.45-0.64) and acceptable accuracy predicting the probability of death (probability of death in 1 year, n high-risk group, test set: expected = 0.31, observed = 0.30; external dataset: expected = 0.22, observed = 0.27). The BARC compared favourably to existing index scores that can also be applied without specialist respiratory variables (area under the curve: BARC = 0.78, 95% CI 0.76-0.79; BODEx = 0.48, 95% CI 0.45-0.51; DOSE = 0.60, 95% CI 0.57-0.61; ADO = 0.68, 95% CI 0.66-0.69, external dataset: BARC = 0.70, 95% CI 0.67-0.72; BODEx = 0.41, 95% CI 0.38-0.45; DOSE = 0.52, 95% CI 0.49-0.55; ADO = 0.57, 95% CI 0.54-0.60).

CONCLUSION

The BARC index performed better than existing tools in predicting 1-year mortality. Critically, the risk score only requires routinely collected non-specialist information which, therefore, could help identify patients seen in primary care that may benefit from palliative care.

52 Drug therapy for delirium in terminally ill adults: a cochrane systematic review

Introduction

Delirium is a complex neuropsychiatric syndrome common in palliative care occurring in up to 88% of patients in the weeks or hours preceding death. Our Cochrane review on drug therapy for delirium in 2012 identified one trial (Candy et al. 2012). New trials have been conducted and an updated review is now recognised as a Cochrane priority.

Aim

To evaluate the evidence from randomised controlled trials (RCTs) examining the effectiveness and safety of drug therapies to treat delirium in adults with a terminal illness.

Methods

We searched for RCTs comparing any drug treatment with any other treatment for delirium in terminally ill adults. Primary outcomes included delirium symptoms at 24 hours and between 24–48 hours; and adverse events. Risk of bias assessment was conducted; we assessed overall quality of evidence using GRADE.

Results

We retrieved 9431 citations. Four studies were included in the final review. All trials were vulnerable to bias most commonly due to small sample size or incomplete outcome data. Figures 1 and 2 illustrate the mean difference between trial arms at 24 hours and between 24–48 hours respectively. Three studies reported adverse events revealing mixed results.

Abstract 52 Figure 1Abstract 52 Figure 2

Conclusion

This review identified four trials. It found low quality evidence examining the impact of drug therapy on delirium symptoms and adverse events in terminally ill adults. Results for each comparison were based on single studies. Undertaking trials on delirium in this patient group is methodologically complex. Only one study compared drug therapy with placebo. This limited our ability to answer our review questions.

Reference

. Candy B, Jackson KC, Jones L, Leurent B, Tookman A, King M. Drug therapy for delirium in terminally ill adult patients. Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews2012;(11). Art. No. CD004770. doi:10.1002/14651858.CD004770.pub2

9 Using what people value to develop new interventions in palliative care: a multilevel level review approach

Introduction

Complex interventions are common in palliative care (PC) but are difficult to evaluate. Complementary therapies (CT) are one type of widely-used complex intervention for which there is inconclusive evidence. No systematic review has been conducted in PC of trials or of qualitative studies of patients’ views of CTs. There are novel approaches with established exemplars of using both types of reviews to help develop more clinically appropriate interventions. These approaches are in their infancy in PC research and have much to offer the specialism.

Aims

Using our on-going review on CT we present as an exemplar in PC an approach to draw together the findings of trials and qualitative studies in a data table (matrix) to contrast what patients value and want with how the intervention is tested.

Methods

We sought trials on the effectiveness of CT and qualitative studies on patients’ perspectives about these therapies. Our primary outcomes for trials included anxiety. Eight databases were searched in 2017. Citations and full-text papers were reviewed to identify relevant studies. Meta-analyses pooled trial data where appropriate and a thematic synthesis is being undertaken to understand patient experience. These findings will be combined in a matrix to explore similarities and differences.

Results

19 trials and five qualitative studies were included. Data analysis and development of the matrix which includes intervention content and patients’ needs is currently underway. We will present the final matrix framework.

Conclusions

Our approach demonstrates a potential way in PC to enhance development of practice appropriate complex interventions.

Rapid assessment of potential for development of large dams and irrigation across continental areas: application to northern Australia

Water scarcity in southern Australia and an imperative to develop regional economies have combined to renew focus on the potential for irrigated agricultural development in Australia’s largely undeveloped and sparsely populated north. More than 2 billion potential dam sites across northern Australia (an area of ~3 million km2) were assessed in a consistent and objective manner, using the DamSite model, in the largest comprehensive assessment of large dams undertaken globally. Simultaneous consideration was given to large dams and their proximity to land physically suited to the development of irrigated cropping and horticulture. We did not consider regulatory and land-ownership limitations on irrigation and dam development or social, environmental and economic considerations. Although these factors do and will constrain water and agricultural development in northern Australia, each requires a site-specific analysis, and these factors can potentially change with time. Physical resources (soil, surface water, and topography suitable for large, in-stream dams) sufficient to support ~1.84 Mha of irrigated agriculture exist in northern Australia. This would require use of the entire yield from eight existing dams (including the Burdekin Falls and Ord River dams) and the construction of 117 new dams. A more financially attractive option could involve using water from 85 large dams (eight existing and 77 new dams) and a large number of reregulating structures (e.g. weirs) to irrigate 1.34 Mha of land suitable for irrigated agriculture. If realised, this would result in a ~50% increase in Australia’s area under irrigation. Approximately 50% of the potential 1.34 Mha of irrigated land in northern Australia (~670 000 ha) could be irrigated with ~20 of the more promising large dams, highlighting the declining marginal returns to dam construction and the benefits of strategic land and water resource planning. In reality, a range of regulatory, political and socio-economic factors will considerably constrain the upper physical limit to dam and irrigation development stated in this paper. They may also inevitably result in major developments occurring over longer timeframes than dam and irrigation developments of comparable scale in southern Australia during the 20th Century. Alternative sources of water (e.g. groundwater, wetlands, waterholes) and water storage (e.g. gully dams, ringtanks, managed aquifer recharge) are physically capable of supplying smaller volumes of water than large dams, although each may have important roles to play in maximising the cost-effectiveness of water supply in northern Australia.

Effect of Lactobacillus rhamnosus HN001 in Pregnancy on Postpartum Symptoms of Depression and Anxiety: A Randomised Double-blind Placebo-controlled Trial

Background

Probiotics may help to prevent symptoms of anxiety and depression through several putative mechanisms.

Objective

The aim of this study was to evaluate the effect of Lactobacillus rhamnosus HN001 (HN001) given in pregnancy and postpartum on symptoms of maternal depression and anxiety in the postpartum period. This was a secondary outcome, the primary outcome being eczema in the offspring at 12 months of age.

Design, Setting, Participants

A randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial of the effect of HN001 on postnatal mood was conducted in 423 women in Auckland and Wellington, New Zealand. Women were recruited at 14–16 weeks gestation.

Intervention

Women were randomised to receive either placebo or HN001 daily from enrolment until 6 months postpartum if breastfeeding.

Outcome Measures

Modified versions of the Edinburgh Postnatal Depression Scale and State Trait Anxiety Inventory were used to assess symptoms of depression and anxiety postpartum.

Trial Registration

Australia NZ Clinical Trials Registry: ACTRN12612000196842.

Findings

423 women were recruited between December 2012 and November 2014. 212 women were randomised to HN001 and 211 to placebo. 380 women (89.8%) completed the questionnaire on psychological outcomes, 193 (91.0%) in the treatment group and 187 (88.6%) in the placebo group. Mothers in the probiotic treatment group reported significantly lower depression scores (HN001 mean = 7·7 (SD = 5·4), placebo 9·0 (6·0); effect size -1·2, (95% CI -2·3, -0·1), p = 0·037) and anxiety scores (HN001 12·0 (4·0), placebo 13·0 (4·0); effect size -1·0 (-1·9, -0·2), p = 0·014) than those in the placebo group. Rates of clinically relevant anxiety on screening (score > 15) were significantly lower in the HN001 treated mothers (OR = 0·44 (0·26, 0·73), p = 0·002).

Interpretation

Women who received HN001 had significantly lower depression and anxiety scores in the postpartum period. This probiotic may be useful for the prevention or treatment of symptoms of depression and anxiety postpartum.

Funding Source

Health Research Council of New Zealand (11/318) and Fonterra Co-operative Group Ltd.

•

The microbiome-gut-brain axis may be important for mental health.

•

We conducted a study of probiotic supplementation in pregnancy and 6 months after delivery if breastfeeding.

•

The probiotic treatment group reported significantly lower depression and anxiety scores than those in the placebo group.

There is mounting evidence from animal studies that the microbiome-gut-brain axis may be important for mental health. Depression and anxiety in pregnancy and after birth affects 10–15% of women, although many are not recognised or treated. We conducted a double-blind placebo-controlled study of probiotic (Lactobacillus rhamnosus HN001) supplementation (from early pregnancy through to 6 months after delivery if breastfeeding) on postnatal symptoms of depression and anxiety in a group (n = 380) of healthy women. Mothers in the probiotic treatment group reported significantly lower depression and anxiety scores than those in the placebo group.

Reduction in the severity of early onset severe preeclampsia during gestation may be associated with changes in endothelial cell activation: A pathological case report

Early severe preeclampsia with changes consistent with the Hemolysis elevated liver enzymes low platelet count (HELLP) variant and severe fetal growth restriction rarely resolves prior to delivery. Established clinical disease is preceded by endothelial dysfunction and inflammation. Endothelial activation is reported in vitro to be raised in the presence of necrotic trophoblastic debris which is deported into the maternal circulation in preeclampsia. We report on an early severe preeclamptic patient admitted at 24 weeks gestation. Maternal serum was taken at day 2, 16, 30 of admission and 45 days postpartum. 20% maternal serum or trophoblastic debris from first trimester placental explants that had been cultured with 10% maternal serum was exposed to endothelial cells. Endothelial cell activation was quantified by the cell surface ICAM-1 expression and U937 monocyte adhesion assay. The clinical condition of this patient improved including the blood pressure, liver function, and platelet count by the 3rd day after antihypertensive treatment and remained normal until delivery at 37 weeks. ICAM-1 expression and U937 moncyte adhesion assay of endothelial cells was significantly increased following exposure of the endothelial cells to the maternal serum or trophoblastic debris from placentae treated with maternal serum drawn on day 2. However, ICAM-1 expression and the monocyte adhesion assay were significantly reduced following exposure of endothelial cells to maternal serum or trophoblastic debris from placenta treated with maternal serum drawn on day 16 or 30. Our data suggest unknown factor(s) in the maternal serum triggered endothelial cell activation when the clinical symptoms were present. The improvement in the clinical condition occurred along with the changes in endothelial cell activation.

The anti-inflammatory effect of calcium for preventing endothelial cell activation in preeclampsia

Preeclampsia is a disorder of pregnancy characterized by endothelial activation. It is believed to be a response to a 'toxin(s)' from the placenta including trophoblastic debris and inflammatory cytokines. Calcium is known to reduce the risk of preeclampsia but the mechanism of its protective effect remains unknown. In this study, we investigated the potential mechanism(s) of calcium supplementation for preventing endothelial activation induced by trophoblastic debris. Trophoblastic debris was harvested from preeclamptic placentae and also from first-trimester placentae, which had been treated with preeclamptic sera. Endothelial cells were then cultured with trophoblastic debris in the presence of calcium. Endothelial activation was measured by quantifying endothelial cell-surface intercellular adhesion molecule-1 (ICAM-1) and by U937 monocyte adhesion to endothelial cells. The expression of ICAM-1 and U937 adhesion to endothelial cells were significantly reduced following exposure of endothelial cells to trophoblastic debris from preeclamptic placenta or from first-trimester placentae treated with preeclamptic sera in the presence of calcium compared with treatment without calcium. The expression of ICAM-1 was also significantly reduced following exposure of endothelial cells to trophoblastic debris with the nitric oxide donor or following treatment of endothelial cells with interleukin (IL)-1β in the presence of calcium. Our study demonstrated that calcium supplementation prevented endothelial cell activation induced by trophoblastic debris from preeclamptic placentae. The nitric oxide synthase (NOS) pathway and anti-inflammatory effects are involved in the action of calcium on endothelial cell activation. These findings may suggest, at least in part, the protective mechanism of calcium supplementation on preeclampsia.

Early onset preeclampsia in subsequent pregnancies correlates with early onset preeclampsia in first pregnancy

OBJECTIVE

Preeclampsia is a major complication of pregnancy and its occurrence in a first pregnancy is a major risk factor for recurrence in subsequent pregnancies. Whether the time of onset or the severity of preeclampsia in a first pregnancy is associated with the incidence of recurrent preeclampsia is not clear. We performed a retrospective study to analyse the incidence of recurrent preeclampsia and associations of the time of onset and the severity of preeclampsia between first preeclampsia and recurrent preeclampsia.

STUDY DESIGN

Ninety-two women with previous preeclampsia who had a second pregnancy in a 4 year period were included. Data on the first and second pregnancies were obtained and included maternal age, maternal height and weight, gestation week at onset of preeclampsia and at delivery, blood pressure, proteinuria, interval between pregnancies and birth weights.

RESULTS

Fifty-five women with previous preeclampsia developed recurrent preeclampsia (59.8%). The difference in the incidence of recurrent early and late onset preeclampsia was not significant different (65.3% versus 53.4%, p>0.05). The difference in the incidence of mild or severe disease in those who experienced recurrent preeclampsia was also not significant (59.6% versus 60%, p>0.05). The severity of preeclampsia in second pregnancy was not associated with the severity of preeclampsia in first pregnancy. However 93.7% women with previous early onset preeclampsia developed early onset preeclampsia in second pregnancy and 56.5% women with previous late onset preeclampsia developed early onset preeclampsia in second pregnancy. In addition, 76.2% women with previous mild preeclampsia developed severe preeclampsia in second pregnancy. The baby weight in recurrent preeclampsia was significantly decreased compared to that in first pregnancy with preeclampsia.

CONCLUSION

Our data demonstrate that there was no association between the incidence of recurrent preeclampsia and the time of onset or severity of preeclampsia in first pregnancy. But our data here may suggest that women with early onset preeclampsia in first pregnancy are more likely to experience early onset preeclampsia in second pregnancy. The severity of recurrent preeclampsia is increased regardless the severity in first pregnancy.

Is ethnicity a risk factor for developing preeclampsia? An analysis of the prevalence of preeclampsia in China

Preeclampsia is a major complication of pregnancy. Risk factors for preeclampsia include population and regional ethnicity. Chinese women living outside the Chinese mainland have a lower prevalence of preeclampsia than resident Caucasians. We performed a retrospective study to identify potential factors that may be associated with developing preeclampsia in China. A total of 67,746 pregnant women were included in this study from 2002 to 2011. Data included maternal age, maternal body mass index (BMI), age at marriage, parity, gestation and blood pressure at diagnosis, proteinuria, and birth weight. In the study period, 1301 (1.92%) nulliparous women developed preeclampsia. The prevalence of mild or severe preeclampsia was 1.42% or 0.49%, respectively. The average BMI was 21.61 kg m(-2). On the basis of the WHO BMI classification, 78.8% of women were of normal BMI, 18.3% were overweight and 2.9% were obese. A total of 37.8% of preeclamptic women had lived with the same partner for less than 1 year, which was significantly higher than those healthy pregnant women who did not develop preeclampsia (24.2%). The prevalence of preeclampsia in China is low compared with Caucasians, and the contribution to this lower prevalence may be dependent on BMI or lifestyle including period of cohabitation with the partner. Our data suggest that Chinese ethnicity may be a factor responsible for the low risk of developing preeclampsia in the populations studied.

Multi-analyte profiling and pathway analysis of plasma for proteins associated with cancer-related fatigue syndrome in disease-free breast cancer patients after primary treatment

CONTEXT

A significant number of women treated for breast cancer develop long-term fatigue afterwards. Previous research has suggested that fatigue may be due to a prolonged inflammatory response. However, there are conflicting results and the exact nature of the disturbance remains unclear.

OBJECTIVES

To identify inflammatory markers associated with fatigue.

METHODS

We recruited women from a breast cancer follow-up clinic and categorised them on the basis of a diagnostic interview as to whether they met the criteria for cancer-related fatigue syndrome (cases) or not (controls). We took plasma samples from each participant to analyse subsequently using a panel of 88 biological markers.

RESULTS

90 samples were analysed in total (45 cases and 45 controls). A factorial analysis of variance (using age as a fixed factor) demonstrated a number of differences in inflammatory cytokines. There were 28 significantly different analytes in total. Granulocyte colony stimulating factor was the most significantly different analyte (p<0.001). Many of the significant analytes were chemokine ligands found to be linked through an inflammatory pathway promoting T-cell and granulocyte production and activation.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results add further weight to the hypothesis that cancer-related fatigue syndrome is associated with an increased pro-inflammatory immune response. Our findings indicate that these cytokine changes could underpin the subjective symptoms, such as perceived muscle weakness and concentration difficulties, experienced by women who feel fatigued after treatment.

Prognosticating in patients with advanced cancer--observational study comparing the accuracy of clinicians' and patients' estimates of survival

BACKGROUND

Clinicians' prognoses in patients with advanced cancer are imprecise. The aim of this study was to compare doctors', nurses' and patients' survival predictions and to identify factors which influence accuracy.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

Some 1018 patients with advanced cancer were recruited. Survival estimates were obtained from the attending doctor, nurse, multidisciplinary team (MDT) and patient (n = 829, 954, 987 and 290 estimates, respectively) and were compared with actual survival. Clinician and patient characteristics were recorded.

RESULTS

MDTs', doctors' and nurses' predictions were accurate 57.5%, 56.3% and 55.5% of occasions, respectively. Nurses were less accurate than the MDT (P = 0.007) but were no worse than doctors (P = 0.284). Estimates of clinicians and patients were more optimistic (doctors: 31%; nurses: 34%; MDT: 31.1%; patients: 45.1%) than pessimistic (12.7%, 11%, 11.4% and 2.7%). Nurses' accuracy increased if they had reviewed the patient within 24 h. Most patients (61.4%) wanted to know their prognosis. Only 37.1% were willing to offer an estimate regarding their own survival. Patients' prognostic estimates were less accurate than health care professionals' (P < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

MDTs were better at predicting survival than doctors' or nurses' alone. Patients were substantially worse. Among nurses, recency of review was related to improved prognostic accuracy.

Psychological Correlates of Mental Stress-induced Ischemia in the Laboratory: The Psychophysiological Investigation of Myocardial Ischemia (PIMI) Study

Participants consisted of 184 patients (160 males, 24 females) with positive angiograms or prior myocardial infarctions who displayed at least 1 mm of ST segment depression on a standardized treadmill test. Mean scores on the Reward Dependence subscale of the Tridimensional Personality Questionnaire were higher in patients displaying ischemia during mental stress. Patients who reported higher levels of irritability/anger in response to the Speech stressor were also more likely to display ischemia. However, this result was primarily a result of the females in the sample whose ratings of interest and irritability were associated with ischemia during the Speech task. Psychometric measures previously found in prospective studies to predict acute cardiac events were unrelated to mental stress-induced ischemia in the laboratory.

Antiphospholipid antibodies prolong the activation of endothelial cells induced by necrotic trophoblastic debris: implications for the pathogenesis of preeclampsia

The symptoms of preeclampsia are preceded by endothelial cell activation/dysfunction which is induced by a placental trigger(s) but maternal risk factor(s) also contribute to the pathogenesis of preeclampsia. In this work we have investigated the interactions of a maternal risk factor, antiphospholipid antibodies, and a placental trigger, necrotic trophoblastic debris, on the activation of endothelial cells. Trophoblastic debris, from placental explants, was induced to become necrotic by freeze-thawing then exposed to endothelial cells for 24 h. After washing away residual trophoblastic debris antiphospholipid antibodies or a control antibody were added to the cultures then replaced with fresh medium in the presence or absence of antibodies. Endothelial cell activation was quantified by examining cell-surface ICAM-1 expression and monocyte adhesion. Endothelial cells exposed to necrotic trophoblastic debris for 24 h became activated but the activation was lost 24 h after removal of the debris. Antiphospholipid antibodies alone did not active untreated endothelial cells, but did prolong the activation of endothelial cells which had been activated by pre-treatment with necrotic trophoblastic debris. When exposed to antiphospholipid antibodies the endothelial cells remained activated despite removal of the trophoblastic debris. In contrast, a control antibody did not prolong endothelial cell activation. Our data suggest that in women with antiphospholipid antibodies, activation of endothelial cells induced by necrotic trophoblastic debris could be maintained even if the endothelial cells were only intermittently exposed to necrotic debris. This might in part explain why antiphospholipid antibodies are such a strong maternal risk factor for preeclampsia.

PP168. The role of calcium supplementation in prevention endothelial cell activation, and possible relevance to preeclampsia

INTRODUCTION

Preeclampsia remains a leading causing of maternal and perinatal mortality and morbidity. Preeclampsia is currently thought to be primarily a disease of endothelial activation and inflammation.

OBJECTIVES

The deportation of trophoblast debris form the placenta was first linked to the pathogenesis of preeclampsia over a hundred years ago and it is hypothesised that deportation of necrotic trophoblast debris may contribute to maternal endothelial cell activation in preeclampsia. We have previously shown that treating placental explants with IL-6 results in shedding of more necrotic trophoblast debris from placental explants and that this debris when phagocytosed by endothelial cells results in activation of the endothelial cells. Although delivery remains the only definitive cure for preeclampsia a number of studies suggest that calcium supplementation may reduce the risk of developing preeclampsia by up to 50% but the protective mechanism of calcium supplementation is unclear. The aim of this work was to determine whether calcium supplementation affects either the production of necrotic trophoblast debris from the placenta or influences endothelial cell activation.

METHODS

First trimester placental explants were cultured with IL-6 in the presence or absence of increasing concentrations of calcium (CaCl2) for 24h. Trophoblastic debris was collected from the explants and then exposed to monolayers of endothelial cell for 24h and endothelial cell activation measured by ICAM-1 ELISA. In other experiments, endothelial cells were treated with IL-6 or necrotic trophoblastic debris in the presence of increasing concentrations of CaCl2, ranging from 230μg/mL to 700μg/mL, for 24h. In some experiments, ebdothelial cells were treated with low concentration of CaCl2, ranging from 0μg/mL to 230μg/mL for 24h. Endothelial cell activation was measured by quantifying cell-surface ICAM-1 levels by ELISA.

RESULTS

CONCLUSION

Our results demonstrate that calcium levels are important to endothelial cell activation and supplemental calcium may reverse the activation of the endothelium induced by proinflammatory mediators while having no effect on the production of trophoblast debris. These results may in part help to explain the benefits of calcium supplementation in the reduction of risk for developing preeclampsia.

Trichosanthin, a Chinese medicine for the medical treatment of ectopic pregnancy with high levels of β-hCG

This was a retrospective study of the effectiveness of trichosanthin (TCS), an active component isolated from the Chinese herb root tuber of Trichosanthes kirilowii on 140 cases of ectopic pregnancy with higher levels of β-human chorionic gonadotropin (β-hCG) managed with a single dose of TCS treatment. Trichosanthin has been used for medical treatment of ectopic pregnancy in China since the 1980s. This study was performed in a major teaching hospitals in China. The mean pretreatment level of β-hCG in the TCS treatment group was 3387.57 IU/L. The success rate of TCS treatment was 85% (119 of 140) which was similar to methotrexate (MTX) treatment. In 86 women with a high level of β-hCG (over 2000 IU/L), the success rate was 80.08% when treated with TCS. Of this group, 26 women who had a high level of β-hCG (over 5000 IU/L) showed a success rate of 73%. The level of β-hCG on days 4, 7, and 10 in TCS group was significantly decreased. This study has shown that TCS may be an option for the medical treatment of unruptured ectopic pregnancy or an option for the treatment of ectopic pregnancy with higher levels of β-hCG than currently recommended for medical management with MTX.

A prevalence study of errors in opioid prescribing in a large teaching hospital

AIM

In 2007, the National Patient Safety Agency performed a study demonstrating that errors in prescribing led to nearly 12,000 adverse clinical incidents a year. The following year, they issued a rapid response report entitled 'Reducing Dosing Errors with Opioid Medicines' designed to be implemented by all NHS trusts. We performed a prevalence study to assess opioid prescribing errors in our large multi-speciality teaching hospital prior to implementation of these recommendations.

METHODOLOGY

We conducted a 1 day snapshot of opioid prescriptions on inpatient drug charts. For every chart, all opioid information was entered into the study proforma. All data were reviewed by consensus group and errors categorised by quality and whether they were potentially lethal, serious, significant or minor.

RESULTS

A total of 330/722 (46%) charts were found to have opioid prescriptions. On the study day, there were 74 charts with errors and on expert review another 16 erroneous charts were found giving a total of 90/330 (27.2%). The largest quality statement error group was 'unclear prescription, missing information'. There were 4 potentially lethal, 26 serious, 38 significant and 22 minor errors.

DISCUSSION

Previous studies have reported opioid prescription error rates of 51.2-70%. Compared with the opioid literature, our trust fares well with an error rate of 27%- four of these errors being potentially lethal. This study has identified where there are weaknesses in our hospital opioid prescribing practice and has aided us in rewriting our acute and chronic pain guidelines with the explicit inclusion of the National Patient Safety Agency recommendations. We have also disseminated the study results at the Trust academic meeting and developed an opioid e-learning package which will be mandatory for all new staff.

Spreading endothelial cell dysfunction in response to necrotic trophoblasts. Soluble factors released from endothelial cells that have phagocytosed necrotic shed trophoblasts reduce the proliferation of additional endothelial cells

The pathogenesis of preeclampsia is not clear but the disease is characterised by systemic endothelial cell dysfunction that is considered to be triggered by a placental factor. Necrotic trophoblastic debris that is deported in the maternal blood is one possible placental trigger for preeclampsia. Syncytial knots were first associated with preeclampsia over 100 years ago. However, syncytial knots are very large and most are trapped in the pulmonary capillaries making it difficult to envisage how they could lead to widespread systemic endothelial cell dysfunction. This study was undertaken to examine whether conditioned medium from endothelial cells that have phagocytosed necrotic trophoblastic debris could adversely affect the proliferation or survival of fresh endothelial cells. Trophoblastic cellular debris, harvested from placental explants was added to endothelial cell monolayers directly or after induction of necrosis by freeze-thawing. Conditioned medium from the endothelial cell cultures was exposed to fresh endothelial cells and their proliferation measured by Alamar Blue, and CyQUANTNF cell proliferation assays. Endothelial cell death was examined by a fluorogenic caspase-3 activity assay and LDH release. Conditioned medium from endothelial cells that had phagocytosed necrotic but not apoptotic trophoblastic debris significantly inhibited the proliferation of fresh endothelial cells but did not induce their death. The conditioned medium also reduced cell-surface endoglin expression by fresh endothelial cells. These results confirm that phagocytosis of necrotic trophoblastic debris by endothelial cells results in the secretion of soluble factors that might explain how necrotic trophoblastic debris trapped in the pulmonary capillaries could induce systemic endothelial cell dysfunction.

Climate response times: dependence on climate sensitivity and ocean mixing

The factors that determine climate response times were investigated with simple models and scaling statements. The response times are particularly sensitive to (i) the amount that the climate response is amplified by feedbacks and (ii) the representation of ocean mixing. If equilibrium climate sensitivity is 3 degrees C or greater for a doubling of the carbon dioxide concentration, then most of the expected warming attributable to trace gases added to the atmosphere by man probably has not yet occurred. This yet to be realized warming calls into question a policy of "wait and see" regarding the issue of how to deal with increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide and other trace gases.

160. THE ROLE OF PHAGOCYTOSIS OF APOPTOTIC SYNCYTIAL KNOTS IN THE PREVENTION OF ENDOTHELIAL CELL ACTIVATION: AN IMPORTANT ADAPTATION FOR NORMAL PREGNANCY

Preeclampsia is characterised by an exaggerated inflammatory response and maternal endothelial cell activation. Syncytial knots, dead multinucleated fetal cells shed from the placenta in large numbers during all pregnancies, may be phagocytosed by maternal endothelial cells. Our previous studies showed that phagocytosis of necrotic but not apoptotic syncytial knots led to endothelial cell activation. It is known that phagocytosis of apoptotic cells leads to active tolerance of immune responses and in this study we questioned whether phagocytosis of apoptotic syncytial knots leads to suppression of the endothelial cells ability to be activated. Syncytial knots were harvested from 1st trimester placental explants. Monolayers of endothelial cells were pre-treated with apoptotic syncytial knots for 24 h. After washing, the endothelial cells were treated with the endothelial cell activators LPS, PMA, IL-6, or necrotic syncytial knots for 24 h. In some experiments the inhibitor of phagocytosis, cytochalasin D, was added into the cultures along with apoptotic syncytial knots. Endothelial cell-surface ICAM-1 was measured using cell based ELISAs. Expression of ICAM-1 by endothelial cells that had phagocytosed apoptotic syncytial knots prior to treatment with LPS, PMA, IL-6, or necrotic syncytial knots was significantly (P =/<0.003) reduced, compared to control endothelial cells that had not phagocytosed apoptotic syncytial knots. Inhibiting phagocytosis of apoptotic syncytial knots with cytochalasin D abolished this protective effect. Our data suggest phagocytosis of apoptotic syncytial knots results in the suppression of the ability of endothelial cells to be activated by a number of potent chemical activators, as well as by the physiologically relevant activator, necrotic syncytial knots. This work suggests that the release of apoptotic syncytial knots from the placenta during normal pregnancy may be a mechanism by which the fetus attempts to protect the maternal vasculature against activation.

Anti-phospholipid antibodies increase non-apoptotic trophoblast shedding: a contribution to the pathogenesis of pre-eclampsia in affected women?

Pre-eclampsia is associated with trophoblast shedding-deportation and endothelial cell dysfunction. Anti-phospholipid autoantibodies increase a women's risk factor of developing pre-eclampsia. In this study we examined the hypothesis that anti-phospholipid antibodies alter the number and nature of trophoblasts shed from the placenta, and that phagocytosis of these altered trophoblasts results in endothelial cell activation. To investigate this we used a placental explant model in which explants were treated with anti-phospholipid antibodies. This treatment resulted in a doubling of the amount of trophoblast shed from the explants. Furthermore, the trophoblasts shed from anti-phospholipid antibody-treated explants were more readily phagocytosed by endothelial cells and subsequently caused the activation of the endothelial cells, as indicated by increased expression of endothelial cell surface ICAM-1 determined by cell-based ELISA, and monocyte adhesion as determined by flow cytometry. Confocal microscopy analysis of trophoblasts shed from anti-phospholipid antibody-treated or control explants demonstrated that anti-phospholipid antibodies, but not control antibodies, were internalised within trophoblasts shed from the explants, and this was accompanied by a reduction in the activity of caspases 3 and 7 in the shed trophoblasts as indicated by FLICA. These results suggest that anti-phospholipid antibodies are selectively transported into trophoblasts where they affect the regulation of the cell cycle leading to excess and aberrant death (necrotic or aponecrotic) and shedding of trophoblasts. If reflected in vivo this might explain, at least in part, how anti-phospholipid antibodies contribute to the pathogenesis of pre-eclampsia.

Circadian heart rate response to chronotherapy versus conventional therapy in patients with hypertension and myocardial ischemia

BACKGROUND

Changes in heart rate (HR) may contribute to the higher incidence of cardiovascular events in the morning.

HYPOTHESIS

The objectives of this analysis were to assess HR patterns in two populations (patients with chronic stable angina or stage I to III hypertension) and to compare the effects of various antianginal and antihypertensive treatments on HR.

METHODS

This was a retrospective analysis of HR data from two clinical trials evaluating the efficacy of controlled-onset, extended-release (COER)-verapamil. The effects of COER-verapamil were compared with placebo, nifedipine gastrointestinal therapeutic system (GITS), amlodipine, and the combination of amlodipine and atenolol.

RESULTS

In patients with angina (n = 498), the change from baseline in HR following 4 weeks of treatment was -6.7 +/- 10.5 beats/min in the COER-verapamil group, -10.8 +/- 10.8 beats/min in the amlodipine/atenolol group, + 2.5 +/- 9.1 beats/ min in the amlodipine monotherapy group, and -1.3 +/- 10.5 beats/min in the placebo group (p<0.001). Data were stratified based on whether patients experienced asymptomatic ischemia during baseline ambulatory electrocardiographic monitoring. The circadian HR pattern was morphologically similar in all groups; however, differences in the magnitude of HR response were evident. In the subset of patients with asymptomatic ischemia (n = 101), treatment with amlodipine monotherapy increased HR compared with placebo. In this same subset of patients, HR reductions were achieved with COER-verapamil and amlodipine/atenolol. In patients with hypertension (n = 557), the change in HR following 10 weeks of treatment was -3.3 beats/min for patients treated with COER-verapamil compared with + 2.0 beats/min for patients treated with nifedipine GITS (p < 0.0001, between-group differences).

CONCLUSION

This analysis demonstrates that morphologically similar circadian patterns of HR occur in both hypertensive patients and those with angina. In addition, significant variation exists among antianginal and antihypertensive agents regarding HR effects.

528. THE INTERNALIZATION OF ANTIPHOSPHOLIPID ANTIBODIES INTO TROPHOBLASTS CORRELATES WITH THE EXPRESSION OF MEGALIN

Antiphospholipid antibodies (aPL) are autoantibodies that increase the risk of preeclampsia nine fold. We have recently shown aPL increase in the number of syncytial knots shed from placental explants and also change the trophoblast death process towards necrosis. Shedding of necrotic syncytial knots is thought to contribute to the pathogenesis of preeclampsia. Antiphospholipid antibodies but not control antibodies, are internalised into the syncytiotrophoblast suggesting a specific mechanism for internalisation of the aPL. Megalin is known to be an endocytic receptor for the antigen of aPL. We believe that the internalisation of aPL into the syncytiotrophoblast is required to for aPL to affect trophoblast shedding and in this study began to investigate the hypothesis that megalin mediates aPL-internalisation. Monoclonal aPL, IIC5 or ID2, were incubated with monolayers of the trophoblast cell lines, Jar, Jeg 3 or BeWo, or first trimester placental explants for 24 hours. Internalisation of aPL into trophoblasts was determined by fluorescent immuno-staining as was the expression of megalin using an antimegalin antibody (Sigma). Experiments were repeated at least three times. Confocal microscopy demonstrated that the syncytiotrophoblast of explants and BeWo cells, but not Jar or Jeg3 cells, internalised the aPL. Despite treating explants and BeWos with the same amount of aPL the level of aPL internalised by the syncytiotrophoblast of explants was greater than the level internalised by BeWos. Megalin was expressed strongly by the syncytiotrophoblast and weakly by BeWos but was not expressed by Jars or Jeg3 cells. The internalization of aPL into syncytiotrophoblasts may play an important role in regulating trophoblast death leading to aberrant shedding of syncytial knots. This study provides preliminary evidence that megalin expression correlates with the ability of trophoblasts to internalize aPL suggesting it may be the receptor that mediates aPL internalization into trophoblasts making this pathway a potential therapeutic target.

Development and validation of a prognostic scale for use in patients with advanced cancer

The aim of this study was to develop a new prognostic indicator to help predict survival in advanced cancer patients more accurately. Data on 329 patients obtained from a multi-centre study in London were analysed. A multifactorial Cox regression model was applied and validated using bootstrapping techniques. Predictive scores were calculated and used to produce a new prognostic index. The value of the index in predicting 14-day survival was then assessed. Four variables were found to be associated with worse survival: primary lung cancer, secondary liver cancer, raised C-Reactive protein and poor performance status (ECOG 4). Survival curves showed that patients designated as 'high' risk by the resulting index had significantly shorter survival than those designated as 'low' risk. A high score on the newly derived prognostic index is associated with poorer survival, but its clinical utility is limited by the relatively low predictive probability of the score.