Estimating the impact of implementation and timing of the COVID-19 vaccination programme in Brazil: a counterfactual analysis

Background

Vaccines developed between 2020 and 2021 against the SARS-CoV-2 virus were designed to diminish the severity and prevent deaths due to COVID-19. However, estimates of the effectiveness of vaccination campaigns in achieving these goals remain a methodological challenge. In this work, we developed a Bayesian statistical model to estimate the number of deaths and hospitalisations averted by vaccination of older adults (above 60 years old) in Brazil.

Methods

We fit a linear model to predict the number of deaths and hospitalisations of older adults as a function of vaccination coverage in this group and casualties in younger adults. We used this model in a counterfactual analysis, simulating alternative scenarios without vaccination or with faster vaccination roll-out. We estimated the direct effects of COVID-19 vaccination by computing the difference between hypothetical and realised scenarios.

Findings

We estimated that more than 165,000 individuals above 60 years of age were not hospitalised due to COVID-19 in the first seven months of the vaccination campaign. An additional contingent of 104,000 hospitalisations could have been averted if vaccination had started earlier. We also estimated that more than 58 thousand lives were saved by vaccinations in the period analysed for the same age group and that an additional 47 thousand lives could have been saved had the Brazilian government started the vaccination programme earlier.

Interpretation

Our estimates provided a lower bound for vaccination impacts in Brazil, demonstrating the importance of preventing the suffering and loss of older Brazilian adults. Once vaccines were approved, an early vaccination roll-out could have saved many more lives, especially when facing a pandemic.

Funding

The Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior-Brazil (Finance Code 001 to F.M.D.M. and L.S.F.), Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico - Brazil (grant number: 315854/2020-0 to M.E.B., 141698/2018-7 to R.L.P.d.S., 313055/2020-3 to P.I.P., 311832/2017-2 to R.A.K.), Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo - Brazil (contract number: 2016/01343-7 to R.A.K.), Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado do Rio de Janeiro - Brazil (grant number: E-26/201.277/2021 to L.S.B.) and Inova Fiocruz/Fundação Oswaldo Cruz - Brazil (grant number: 48401485034116) to L.S.B., O.G.C. and M.G.d.F.C. The funding agencies had no role in the conceptualization of the study.

Wildfires disproportionately affected jaguars in the Pantanal

The Pantanal wetland harbours the second largest population of jaguars in the world. Alongside climate and land-use changes, the recent mega-fires in the Pantanal may pose a threat to the jaguars' long-term survival. To put these growing threats into perspective, we addressed the reach and intensity of fires that have affected jaguar conservation in the Pantanal ecoregion over the last 16 years. The 2020 fires were the most severe in the annual series, burned 31% of the Pantanal and affected 45% of the estimated jaguar population (87% of these in Brazil); 79% of the home range areas, and 54% of the protected areas within home ranges. Fires consumed core habitats and injured several jaguars, the Pantanal's apex predator. Displacement, hunger, dehydration, territorial defence, and lower fecundity are among the impacts that may affect the abundance of the species. These impacts are likely to affect other less mobile species and, therefore, the ecological stability of the region. A solution to prevent the recurrence of mega-fires lies in combating the anthropogenic causes that intensify drought conditions, such as implementing actions to protect springs, increasing the number and area of protected areas, regulating fire use, and allocating fire brigades before dry seasons.

From insect-plant interactions to ecological networks

Abstract Since its inception, biodiversity has largely been understood as species diversity and assessed as such. Interactions among species or functional groups are gradually becoming part of an expanded concept of biodiversity. As a case study of the development of a research program in biodiversity, we summarize our multi-decade studies on interactions of Asteraceae and flowerhead-feeding insects in Brazil. Initially, host species were treated as independent replicates in order to assess the local and turnover components of their herbivore diversity. Research then expanded into sampling entire interactive communities of host plants and their associated herbivores in different localities and regions, enabling new research lines to be pursued. Interaction diversity could be assessed and factored into spatial and among-host components, suggesting a new field of interaction geography. Second, host specialization, a key component of interaction diversity, was reframed considering simultaneously relatedness and local availability of plant hosts. Third, with the influence of complex network theory, community-wide species interactions were probed for topological patterns. Having identified the modular structure of these plant-herbivore systems, later we demonstrated that they fit a compound hierarchical topology, in which interactions are nested within large-scale modules. In a brief survey of research funded by Fapesp, especially within the Biota-Fapesp program, we highlight several lines of internationally recognized research on interaction diversity, notably on plant-frugivore and plant-pollinator interactions, together with new theoretical models. The interplay of field studies with new theoretical and analytical approaches has established interaction diversity as an essential component for monitoring, conserving and restoring biodiversity in its broader sense.

Model-based estimation of transmissibility and reinfection of SARS-CoV-2 P.1 variant

Background

The SARS-CoV-2 variant of concern (VOC) P.1 (Gamma variant) emerged in the Amazonas State, Brazil, in November 2020. The epidemiological consequences of its mutations have not been widely studied, despite detection of P.1 in 36 countries, with local transmission in at least 5 countries. A range of mutations are seen in P.1, ten of them in the spike protein. It shares mutations with VOCs previously detected in the United Kingdom (B.1.1.7, Alpha variant) and South Africa (B.1.351, Beta variant).

Methods

We estimated the transmissibility and reinfection of P.1 using a model-based approach, fitting data from the national health surveillance of hospitalized individuals and frequency of the P.1 variant in Manaus from December-2020 to February-2021.

Results

Here we estimate that the new variant is about 2.6 times more transmissible (95% Confidence Interval: 2.4–2.8) than previous circulating variant(s). Manaus already had a high prevalence of individuals previously affected by the SARS-CoV-2 virus and our fitted model attributed 28% of Manaus cases in the period to reinfections by P.1, confirming the importance of reinfection by this variant. This value is in line with estimates from blood donors samples in Manaus city.

Conclusions

Our estimates rank P.1 as one of the most transmissible among the SARS-CoV-2 VOCs currently identified, and potentially as transmissible as the posteriorly detected VOC B.1.617.2 (Delta variant), posing a serious threat and requiring measures to control its global spread.

SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, can mutate into variants which might have different characteristics such as increased ability to spread. The P.1 variant, also known as Gamma, was first identified in Manaus, Brazil. Here, we use mathematical and statistical methods to model the spread of P.1 in Manaus and to determine the potential for people getting re-infected with P.1, comparing it to previous circulating variants in the region. We estimate that P.1 spreads 2.6 times more easily than these other variants and that nearly a third of cases over the period studied were reinfections with P.1. These findings help us to understand whether P.1 is likely to be more difficult to control than other variants and what sort of measures might be needed.

Coutinho et al. use genomic and epidemiological data from Manaus, Brazil, to estimate the transmissibility and potential for reinfection with the SARS-CoV-2 variant-of-concern P.1 (gamma). Using mathematical modelling, the authors estimate that P.1 is 2.6 times more transmissible than previous SARS-CoV-2 variants circulating in Manaus and underlies a large proportion of reinfections in Manaus.

Towards a pragmatic use of statistics in ecology

Although null hypothesis testing (NHT) is the primary method for analyzing data in many natural sciences, it has been increasingly criticized. Recently, approaches based on information theory (IT) have become popular and were held by many to be superior because it enables researchers to properly assess the strength of the evidence that data provide for competing hypotheses. Many studies have compared IT and NHT in the context of model selection and stepwise regression, but a systematic comparison of the most basic uses of statistics by ecologists is still lacking. We used computer simulations to compare how both approaches perform in four basic test designs (t-test, ANOVA, correlation tests, and multiple linear regression). Performance was measured by the proportion of simulated samples for which each method provided the correct conclusion (power), the proportion of detected effects with a wrong sign (S-error), and the mean ratio of the estimated effect to the true effect (M-error). We also checked if the p-value from significance tests correlated to a measure of strength of evidence, the Akaike weight. In general both methods performed equally well. The concordance is explained by the monotonic relationship between p-values and evidence weights in simple designs, which agree with analytic results. Our results show that researchers can agree on the conclusions drawn from a data set even when they are using different statistical approaches. By focusing on the practical consequences of inferences, such a pragmatic view of statistics can promote insightful dialogue among researchers on how to find a common ground from different pieces of evidence. A less dogmatic view of statistical inference can also help to broaden the debate about the role of statistics in science to the entire path that leads from a research hypothesis to a statistical hypothesis.

Brazil in the face of new SARS-CoV-2 variants: emergencies and challenges in public health

This article discusses the epidemic situation of Covid-19 in Brazil, in the face of the emergence of a new strain called P.1, which is more transmissible and may be associated with reinfection. Given the collapse of hospital care in Manaus in January 2021 and the results of three recent preprints, each that reports increased transmissibility of the P.1 variant, we propose some urgent measures. Genomic surveillance based on multi-step diagnostics, starting with RT-PCR type tests and up to sequencing, should be established. Efforts to identify reinfections associated with this variant and the update of its definition in protocols should be prioritized, and studies on the efficacy of currently available vaccines in Brazil concerning the new variant should be conducted. We also propose improving the Brazilian health surveillance system such that genomic surveillance is coordinated and thereby better able to respond to future emergencies in a more timely fashion. We call on the public agents involved in health surveillance to share data and information regarding the epidemic in a clear, fast and transparent way. Finally, we propose a greater engagement in inter-institutional cooperation of all those involved in the response and production of knowledge about the pandemic in our country.

NEOTROPICAL CARNIVORES: a data set on carnivore distribution in the Neotropics

Mammalian carnivores are considered a key group in maintaining ecological health and can indicate potential ecological integrity in landscapes where they occur. Carnivores also hold high conservation value and their habitat requirements can guide management and conservation plans. The order Carnivora has 84 species from 8 families in the Neotropical region: Canidae; Felidae; Mephitidae; Mustelidae; Otariidae; Phocidae; Procyonidae; and Ursidae. Herein, we include published and unpublished data on native terrestrial Neotropical carnivores (Canidae; Felidae; Mephitidae; Mustelidae; Procyonidae; and Ursidae). NEOTROPICAL CARNIVORES is a publicly available data set that includes 99,605 data entries from 35,511 unique georeferenced coordinates. Detection/non-detection and quantitative data were obtained from 1818 to 2018 by researchers, governmental agencies, non-governmental organizations, and private consultants. Data were collected using several methods including camera trapping, museum collections, roadkill, line transect, and opportunistic records. Literature (peer-reviewed and grey literature) from Portuguese, Spanish and English were incorporated in this compilation. Most of the data set consists of detection data entries (n = 79,343; 79.7%) but also includes non-detection data (n = 20,262; 20.3%). Of those, 43.3% also include count data (n = 43,151). The information available in NEOTROPICAL CARNIVORES will contribute to macroecological, ecological, and conservation questions in multiple spatio-temporal perspectives. As carnivores play key roles in trophic interactions, a better understanding of their distribution and habitat requirements are essential to establish conservation management plans and safeguard the future ecological health of Neotropical ecosystems. Our data paper, combined with other large-scale data sets, has great potential to clarify species distribution and related ecological processes within the Neotropics. There are no copyright restrictions and no restriction for using data from this data paper, as long as the data paper is cited as the source of the information used. We also request that users inform us of how they intend to use the data.

Climate drivers of malaria at its southern fringe in the Americas

In this work we analyze potential environmental drivers of malaria cases in Northwestern Argentina. We inspect causal links between malaria and climatic variables by means of the convergent cross mapping technique, which provides a causality criterion from the theory of dynamic systems. Analysis is based on 12 years of weekly malaria P. vivax cases in Tartagal, Salta, Argentina-at the southern fringe of malaria incidence in the Americas-together with humidity and temperature time-series spanning the same period. Our results show that there are causal links between malaria cases and both maximum temperature, with a delay of five weeks, and minimum temperature, with delays of zero and twenty two weeks. Humidity is also a driver of malaria cases, with thirteen weeks delay between cause and effect. Furthermore we also determined the sign and strength of the effects. Temperature has always a positive non-linear effect on cases, with maximum temperature effects more pronounced above 25°C and minimum above 17°C, while effects of humidity are more intricate: maximum humidity above 85% has a negative effect, whereas minimum humidity has a positive effect on cases. These results might be signaling processes operating at short (below 5 weeks) and long (over 12 weeks) time delays, corresponding to effects related to parasite cycle and mosquito population dynamics respectively. The non-linearities found for the strength of the effect of temperature on malaria cases make warmer areas more prone to higher increases in the disease incidence. Moreover, our results indicate that an increase of extreme weather events could enhance the risks of malaria spreading and re-emergence beyond the current distribution. Both situations, warmer climate and increase of extreme events, will be remarkably increased by the end of the century in this hot spot of climate change.

Growth Rate Modulation Enables Coexistence in a Competitive Exclusion Scenario Between Microbial Eukaryotes

Coexistence usually are exceeding the explicable rate by competitive exclusion principle. Since the pioneer Gause, many studies have used protist microcosm systems to study competitive exclusion. We explored a two-species system with the testate-amoebae: (Arcella intermedia and Pyxidicula operculata), where competitive exclusion is expected to occur. We determined their growth curves individually and under competitive interaction. We used a state-space model to represent system dynamics and calculated posterior population sizes simulating competition dynamics. Contrarily to our expectation, Arcella and Pyxidicula showed similar growth rates (1.37 and 1.46 days–1 respectively) and only different carrying capacity (1,997 and 25,108 cells cm–2 respectively). The maximum number of cells of both species when growing in competition was much lower if compared to the monospecific cultures (in average, 73% and 80% less for Arcella and Pyxidicula respectively). However, our competition experiments always resulted in coexistence. According to the models, the drop in growth rates and stochasticity mainly explains our coexistence results. We propose that a context of ephemeral resources can explain these results. Additionally, we propose generating factors of stochasticity as intraspecific variation, small population effects, toxicity of waste products and influence of the bacterial community.

Ecological literacy and beyond: Problem-based learning for future professionals

Ecological science contributes to solving a broad range of environmental problems. However, lack of ecological literacy in practice often limits application of this knowledge. In this paper, we highlight a critical but often overlooked demand on ecological literacy: to enable professionals of various careers to apply scientific knowledge when faced with environmental problems. Current university courses on ecology often fail to persuade students that ecological science provides important tools for environmental problem solving. We propose problem-based learning to improve the understanding of ecological science and its usefulness for real-world environmental issues that professionals in careers as diverse as engineering, public health, architecture, social sciences, or management will address. Courses should set clear learning objectives for cognitive skills they expect students to acquire. Thus, professionals in different fields will be enabled to improve environmental decision-making processes and to participate effectively in multidisciplinary work groups charged with tackling environmental issues.

A meta-analysis of plant facilitation in coastal dune systems: responses, regions, and research gaps

Empirical studies in salt marshes, arid, and alpine systems support the hypothesis that facilitation between plants is an important ecological process in severe or 'stressful' environments. Coastal dunes are both abiotically stressful and frequently disturbed systems. Facilitation has been documented, but the evidence to date has not been synthesized. We did a systematic review with meta-analysis to highlight general research gaps in the study of plant interactions in coastal dunes and examine if regional and local factors influence the magnitude of facilitation in these systems. The 32 studies included in the systematic review were done in coastal dunes located in 13 countries around the world but the majority was in the temperate zone (63%). Most of the studies adopt only an observational approach to make inferences about facilitative interactions, whereas only 28% of the studies used both observational and experimental approaches. Among the factors we tested, only geographic region mediates the occurrence of facilitation more broadly in coastal dune systems. The presence of a neighbor positively influenced growth and survival in the tropics, whereas in temperate and subartic regions the effect was neutral for both response variables. We found no evidence that climatic and local factors, such as life-form and life stage of interacting plants, affect the magnitude of facilitation in coastal dunes. Overall, conclusions about plant facilitation in coastal dunes depend on the response variable measured and, more broadly, on the geographic region examined. However, the high variability and the limited number of studies, especially in tropical region, indicate we need to be cautious in the generalization of the conclusions. Anyway, coastal dunes provide an important means to explore topical issues in facilitation research including context dependency, local versus regional drivers of community structure, and the importance of gradients in shaping the outcome of net interactions.

Associations of forest cover, fragment area, and connectivity with neotropical understory bird species richness and abundance

Theoretical and empirical studies demonstrate that the total amount of forest and the size and connectivity of fragments have nonlinear effects on species survival. We tested how habitat amount and configuration affect understory bird species richness and abundance. We used mist nets (almost 34,000 net hours) to sample birds in 53 Atlantic Forest fragments in southeastern Brazil. Fragments were distributed among 3 10,800-ha landscapes. The remaining forest in these landscapes was below (10% forest cover), similar to (30%), and above (50%) the theoretical fragmentation threshold (approximately 30%) below which the effects of fragmentation should be intensified. Species-richness estimates were significantly higher (F= 3715, p = 0.00) where 50% of the forest remained, which suggests a species occurrence threshold of 30-50% forest, which is higher than usually occurs (<30%). Relations between forest cover and species richness differed depending on species sensitivity to forest conversion and fragmentation. For less sensitive species, species richness decreased as forest cover increased, whereas for highly sensitive species the opposite occurred. For sensitive species, species richness and the amount of forest cover were positively related, particularly when forest cover was 30-50%. Fragment size and connectivity were related to species richness and abundance in all landscapes, not just below the 30% threshold. Where 10% of the forest remained, fragment size was more related to species richness and abundance than connectivity. However, the relation between connectivity and species richness and abundance was stronger where 30% of the landscape was forested. Where 50% of the landscape was forested, fragment size and connectivity were both related to species richness and abundance. Our results demonstrated a rapid loss of species at relatively high levels of forest cover (30-50%). Highly sensitive species were 3-4 times more common above the 30-50% threshold than below it; however, our results do not support a unique fragmentation threshold.

Beyond the fragmentation threshold hypothesis: regime shifts in biodiversity across fragmented landscapes

Ecological systems are vulnerable to irreversible change when key system properties are pushed over thresholds, resulting in the loss of resilience and the precipitation of a regime shift. Perhaps the most important of such properties in human-modified landscapes is the total amount of remnant native vegetation. In a seminal study Andrén proposed the existence of a fragmentation threshold in the total amount of remnant vegetation, below which landscape-scale connectivity is eroded and local species richness and abundance become dependent on patch size. Despite the fact that species patch-area effects have been a mainstay of conservation science there has yet to be a robust empirical evaluation of this hypothesis. Here we present and test a new conceptual model describing the mechanisms and consequences of biodiversity change in fragmented landscapes, identifying the fragmentation threshold as a first step in a positive feedback mechanism that has the capacity to impair ecological resilience, and drive a regime shift in biodiversity. The model considers that local extinction risk is defined by patch size, and immigration rates by landscape vegetation cover, and that the recovery from local species losses depends upon the landscape species pool. Using a unique dataset on the distribution of non-volant small mammals across replicate landscapes in the Atlantic forest of Brazil, we found strong evidence for our model predictions - that patch-area effects are evident only at intermediate levels of total forest cover, where landscape diversity is still high and opportunities for enhancing biodiversity through local management are greatest. Furthermore, high levels of forest loss can push native biota through an extinction filter, and result in the abrupt, landscape-wide loss of forest-specialist taxa, ecological resilience and management effectiveness. The proposed model links hitherto distinct theoretical approaches within a single framework, providing a powerful tool for analysing the potential effectiveness of management interventions.

Diversidade e ocorrência de Asteraceae em cerrados de São Paulo

De abril a maio de 2000 a 2002 oito localidades com remanescentes de cerrados sensu stricto no estado de São Paulo foram amostradas para o levantamento das espécies de asteráceas, uma das famílias mais representativas da flora herbáceo-arbustiva nestas formações. Foram feitas 23 amostragens e cada área de estudo foi amostrada em média uma vez por ano durante o pico de floração das plantas. Ao todo foram obtidas 399 amostras, nas quais foram reconhecidas 89 morfoespécies (74 foram identificadas como espécies conhecidas). Quarenta por cento das espécies foram registradas uma única vez (unicatas), indicando um grande número de espécies raras. Apenas 10% das espécies que ocorreram em mais de uma amostra foram obtidas de uma mesma área (sobreposição espacial) ou de um mesmo ano de estudo (sobreposição temporal). A riqueza de espécies em cada área foi estimada por meio de transeções e depois comparada à riqueza total observada em cada área de estudo, sendo esta na maioria das vezes mais alta que a estimada com base nas transeções. A lista de espécies obtida para os cerrados amostrados foi comparada a outras 24 listas publicadas para cerrados no Brasil. Embora a maioria das espécies mais comuns tenha coincidido, oito espécies (11% das espécies identificadas) não constam das listas publicadas. Concluímos que as áreas de cerrado sensu stricto estudadas no estado de São Paulo encontram-se isoladas, com uma grande parte da flora herbáceo-arbustiva composta por várias espécies raras e exclusivas. Diante deste quadro, sugerimos que a manutenção da biodiversidade de Asteraceae depende da conservação de todo o conjunto de remanescentes de cerrado do estado de São Paulo.

Differentiation of Acidithiobacillus ferrooxidans and A. thiooxidans strains based on 16S–23S rDNA spacer polymorphism analysis

Restriction fragment length polymorphism (RFLP) and sequence analyses of the PCR-amplified 16S-23S rDNA intergenic spacer (ITS) were used for differentiating Acidithiobacillus thiooxidans strains from other related acidithiobacilli, including A. ferrooxidans and A. caldus. RFLP fingerprints obtained with AluI, DdeI, HaeIII, HinfI and MspI enabled the differentiation of all Acidithiobacillus reference strains into species groups. The A. thiooxidans strains investigated (metal mine isolates) yielded identical RFLP patterns to the A. thiooxidans type strain (ATCC 19377(T)), except for strain DAMS, which had a distinct pattern for all enzymes tested. Fourteen A. ferrooxidans mine strains were assigned to 3 RFLP groups, the majority of which were grouped with A. ferrooxidans ATCC 23270(T). The spacer region of one representative strain from each of the RFLP groups obtained was subjected to sequence analysis, in addition to eleven additional A. thiooxidans strains isolated from sediment and water samples, and A. caldus DSM 8584(T). The tRNA(IIe) and tRNA(Ala) genes, present in all strains analyzed, showed high sequence similarity. Phylogenetic analysis of the ITS sequences differentiated all three Acidithiobacillus species. Inter- and infraspecific genetic variations detected were mainly due to the size and sequence polymorphism of the ITS3 region. Mantel tests showed no significant correlation between ITS sequence similarity and the geographical origin of strains. The results showed that the 16S-23S rDNA spacer region is a useful target for the development of molecular-based methods aimed at the detection, rapid differentiation and identification of acidithiobacilli.

Investigation of bacterial diversity in Brazilian tropical estuarine sediments reveals high actinobacterial diversity

Phylogenetic and statistical analyses of 16S rRNA gene libraries were used for the investigation of actinobacterial communities present in two tropical estuarine sediments (Santos-São Vicente estuary, Brazil). The libraries were constructed from samples collected at the brackish end of the estuary, highly hydrocarbon-contaminated, and at the marine end, uncontaminated. Clones from the marine end of the estuary were all related to sequences from non-cultured Actinobacteria and unidentified bacteria recovered from a wide range of environmental samples, whereas clones from the brackish end were mainly related to sequences from cultured Actinobacteria. Statistical analyses showed that the community recovered from the hydrocarbon-contaminated sediment sample, at the brackish end, was less diverse than the uncontaminated one, at the marine end, and that the communities from the two libraries were differently structured, suggesting that these may have not originated from the same community. The recognition of the spatial pattern of actinobacterial distribution in a natural environment is a first step towards understanding the way these communities are organized, providing valuable data for further investigations of their taxonomic and functional diversity.