Systematic Review on the Cost Effectiveness of Prostate Cancer Screening in Europe

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE

In Europe, prostate cancer (PCa) is the most common cancer in men. Screening may therefore be crucial to lower health care costs, morbidity, and mortality. This systematic review aimed to provide a contemporary overview of the costs and benefits of PCa screening programmes.

METHODS

A peer-reviewed literature search was conducted, using the PICO method. A detailed search strategy was developed in four databases based on the following key search terms: "PCa", "screening", and "cost effectiveness". Any type of economic evaluation was included. The search strategy was restricted to European countries, but no restrictions were set on the year of publication.

KEY FINDINGS AND LIMITATIONS

A total of 7484 studies were identified initially. Of these, 19 studies described the cost effectiveness of PCa screening in Europe. Among the studies using an initially healthy study population, most focussed on risk- and/or age- and/or magnetic resonance imaging (MRI)-based screening in addition to prostate-specific antigen (PSA) testing and compared this with no screening. Incremental cost ratios (ICERs) varied from €5872 per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) to €372 948/QALY, with a median of €56 487/QALY. Risk-based screening followed by MRI testing seemed to be a more cost-effective strategy than no screening.

CONCLUSIONS AND CLINICAL IMPLICATIONS

This systematic review indicates that screening programmes incorporating a risk-based approach and MRI have the potential to be cost effective.

PATIENT SUMMARY

In this review, we looked at the cost effectiveness of prostate cancer screening in Europe. We found that a risk-based approach and incorporation of magnetic resonance imaging has the potential to be cost effective. However, there remains a knowledge gap regarding cost effectiveness of prostate cancer screening. Therefore, determinants of cost effectiveness require further investigation.

Regional differences in mortality risk and in attenuating or aggravating factors in schizophrenia: A systematic review and meta-analysis

People with schizophrenia die prematurely, yet regional differences are unclear. PRISMA 2020-compliant systematic review/random-effects meta-analysis of cohort studies assessing mortality relative risk (RR) versus any control group, and moderators, in people with ICD/DSM-defined schizophrenia, comparing countries and continents. We conducted subgroup, meta-regression analyses, and quality assessment. The primary outcome was all-cause mortality. Secondary outcomes were suicide-, /natural-cause- and other-cause-related mortality. We included 135 studies from Europe (n = 70), North-America (n = 29), Asia (n = 33), Oceania (n = 2), Africa (n = 1). In incident plus prevalent schizophrenia, differences across continents emerged for all-cause mortality (highest in Africa, RR=5.98, 95 %C.I.=4.09-8.74, k = 1, lowest in North-America, RR=2.14, 95 %C.I.=1.92-2.38, k = 16), suicide (highest in Oceania, RR=13.5, 95 %C.I.=10.08-18.07, k = 1, lowest in North-America, RR=4.4, 95 %C.I.=4.07-4.76, k = 6), but not for natural-cause mortality. Europe had the largest association between antipsychotics and lower all-cause mortality/suicide (Asia had the smallest or no significant association, respectively), without differences for natural-cause mortality. Higher country socio-demographic index significantly moderated larger suicide-related and smaller natural-cause-related mortality risk in incident schizophrenia, with reversed associations in prevalent schizophrenia. Antipsychotics had a larger/smaller protective association in incident/prevalent schizophrenia regarding all-cause mortality, and smaller protective association for suicide-related mortality in prevalent schizophrenia. Additional regional differences emerged in incident schizophrenia, across countries, and secondary outcomes. Significant regional differences emerged for all-cause, cause-specific and suicide-related mortality. Natural-cause death was homogeneously increased globally. Moderators differed across countries. Global initiatives are needed to improve physical health in people with schizophrenia, local studies to identify actionable moderators.

The Disease Burden and Economic Burden of Cancer in 9 Countries in the Middle East and Africa

OBJECTIVES

The objective of this study was to characterize the epidemiological development of cancer in the Middle East and Africa since 2000 and to quantify its current economic impact.

METHODS

Nine countries were studied: Algeria, Egypt, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Morocco, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, and the United Arab Emirates. Information on causes of death and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) was obtained from the World Health Organization. Information on cancer incidence was collected from local cancer registries and estimations by the World Health Organization. The economic burden of cancer was estimated from local health expenditure data and from age-specific mortality data.

RESULTS

Between 2000 and 2019, cancer went from third-leading to second-leading cause of death (10% to 13% of all deaths) across these 9 countries. It also climbed from the sixth-leading to third-leading cause of DALYs (6% to 8% of all DALYs). New cancer cases per 100 000 inhabitants increased by 10% to 100% between 2000 and 2019, whereas future increases until 2040 range from 27% in Egypt to 208% in the United Arab Emirates, solely because of expected demographic changes. The economic burden of cancer ranged from around USD 15 per capita in the 4 African countries to USD 79 in Kuwait in 2019.

CONCLUSIONS

Cancer is becoming one of the leading causes of disease burden in the Middle East and Africa. Patient numbers are expected to rise strongly in the coming decades. Increasing healthcare expenditure on appropriate cancer care is important to improve patient outcomes and can attenuate the economic impact of cancer on society.

Precision medicine in neurodegeneration: the IHI-PROMINENT project

Neurodegenerative diseases are one of the most important contributors to morbidity and mortality in the elderly. In Europe, over 14 million people are currently living with dementia, at a cost of over 400 billion EUR annually. Recent advances in diagnostics and approval for new pharmaceutical treatments for Alzheimer's disease (AD), the most common etiology of dementia, heralds the beginning of precision medicine in this field. However, their implementation will challenge an already over-burdened healthcare systems. There is a need for innovative digital solutions that can drive the related clinical pathways and optimize and personalize care delivery. Public-private partnerships are ideal vehicles to tackle these challenges. Here we describe the Innovative Health Initiative (IHI) public-private partnership project PROMINENT that has been initiated by connecting leading dementia researchers, medical professionals, dementia patients and their care partners with the latest innovative health technologies using a precision medicine based digital platform. The project builds upon the knowledge and already implemented digital tools from several collaborative initiatives that address new models for early detection, diagnosis, and monitoring of AD and other neurodegenerative disorders. The project aims to provide support to improvement efforts to each aspect of the care pathway including diagnosis, prognosis, treatment, and data collection for real world evidence and cost effectiveness studies. Ultimately the PROMINENT project is expected to lead to cost-effective care and improved health outcomes.

Comparing the results from a Swedish pregnancy cohort using data from three automated placental growth factor immunoassay platforms intended for first-trimester preeclampsia prediction

INTRODUCTION

Risk evaluation for preeclampsia in early pregnancy allows identification of women at high risk. Prediction models for preeclampsia often include circulating concentrations of placental growth factor (PlGF); however, the models are usually limited to a specific PlGF method of analysis. The aim of this study was to compare three different PlGF methods of analysis in a Swedish cohort to assess their convergent validity and appropriateness for use in preeclampsia risk prediction models in the first trimester of pregnancy.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

First-trimester blood samples were collected in gestational week 11⁺⁰ to 13⁺⁶ from 150 pregnant women at Uppsala University Hospital during November 2018 until November 2020. These samples were analyzed using the different PlGF methods from Perkin Elmer, Roche Diagnostics, and Thermo Fisher Scientific.

RESULTS

There were strong correlations between the PlGF results obtained with the three methods, but the slopes of the correlations clearly differed from 1.0: PlGF_PerkinElmer  = 0.553 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.518-0.588) * PlGF_Roche -1.112 (95% CI -2.773 to 0.550); r = 0.966, mean difference -24.6 (95% CI -26.4 to -22.8). PlGF_PerkinElmer  = 0.673 (95% CI 0.618-0.729) * PlGF_ThermoFisher -0.199 (95% CI -2.292 to 1.894); r = 0.945, mean difference -13.8 (95% CI -15.1 to -12.6). PlGF_Roche  = 1.809 (95% CI 1.694-1.923) * PlGF_PerkinElmer +2.010 (95% CI -0.877 to 4.897); r = 0.966, mean difference 24.6 (95% CI 22.8-26.4). PlGF_Roche  = 1.237 (95% CI 1.113-1.361) * PlGF_ThermoFisher +0.840 (95% CI -3.684 to 5.363); r = 0.937, mean difference 10.8 (95% CI 9.4-12.1). PlGF_ThermoFisher  = 1.485 (95% CI 1.363-1.607) * PlGF_PerkinElmer +0.296 (95% CI -2.784 to 3.375); r = 0.945, mean difference 13.8 (95% CI 12.6-15.1). PlGF_ThermoFisher  = 0.808 (95% CI 0.726-0.891) * PlGF_Roche -0.679 (95% CI -4.456 to 3.099); r = 0.937, mean difference -10.8 (95% CI -12.1 to -9.4).

CONCLUSION

The three PlGF methods have different calibrations. This is most likely due to the lack of an internationally accepted reference material for PlGF. Despite different calibrations, the Deming regression analysis indicated good agreement between the three methods, which suggests that results from one method may be converted to the others and hence used in first-trimester prediction models for preeclampsia.

Real-world long-term effects on blood pressure and other cardiovascular risk factors for patients in digital therapeutics

PURPOSE

Hypertension is a leading causeof premature death worldwide and a major public health problem. This study investigated the long-term effects (>1 year) of digital hypertension monitoring by home blood pressure (HBP) measurements in combination with individualized remote treatment via a Swedish Digital Therapeutics platform in a large patient population.

METHODS

The primary endpoint, HBP, and exploratory endpoints, BMI, alcohol consumption, stress level, physical activity, and smoking, were assessed every 3 months for 540 and 360 days, respectively, in 7752 Swedish primary hypertension patients. Patients received individualized medical treatments and lifestyle advice via asynchronous text-based communication in an app. Changes from baseline in endpoints were calculated for the whole population and for subgroups defined by baseline SBP ≥135 (high SBP), 125-135 (suboptimal SBP), 115-125 (optimal SBP), and <115 mmHg (low SBP).

RESULTS

After 360 days of treatment, the whole population showed a significant increase of 57% (from 37 to 58%) in the proportion of patients with controlled SBP (i.e. SBP of 115-135 mmHg). The largest reduction in SBP of 13.8 mmHg was observed for the high SBP subgroup, whereas for the low SBP subgroup, SBP increased by 13.4 mmHg. BP improved most in the first three months, and for both the high and low BP subgroups, the improvement continued during the 540-day study period. Significant beneficial changes were also observed for some exploratory endpoints including BMI and smoking.

CONCLUSIONS

In conclusion, the digital therapeutics platform was associated with significant improvement in BP control and associated risk factors, which were maintained over a longer period.

Across-Country Variations of Real-World Data and Evidence for Drugs: A 5-European-Country Study

OBJECTIVES

This study aimed to describe the role of real-world data (RWD) and real-world evidence (RWE) in health technology assessment (HTA) in 5 European countries and to identify the hurdles to the acceptance of RWE and suggest directions toward its more effective use.

METHODS

Authors from France, Germany, Italy, and Sweden used a common template to extract evidence. For England, the Cancer Drugs Fund was described and analyzed as a particular model for the use of RWD to provide evidence for coverage decisions and managed entry agreements.

RESULTS

In all countries except Germany, HTA bodies acknowledged the relevance of RWD/RWE to address postlaunch uncertainties. In Germany, evidence from randomized controlled trials remains the gold standard, and evidence based on RWD is generally rejected. Multiple sources of RWD exist, but the quality, the immediate relevance of existing sources, and their interoperability limit their adaptation to the specifics of a given drug. This leads to skepticism about the validity of the evidence. Timing is also a key issue: the production of evidence may not be synchronized with the HTA and pricing bodies' agendas. The Cancer Drugs Fund case emphasizes that a strong partnership among all stakeholders and a pragmatic use of existing data, alongside clinical evidence provided by companies, are key success factors.

CONCLUSIONS

A continuous investment in national health information systems is a key issue for providing valid RWE. Processes and aids to guide the acceptability and usage of RWE derived from pairing between sources and questions are essential.

The Allocation of the Economic Value of Second-Generation Antipsychotics Over the Product Life Cycle: The Case of Risperidone in Sweden and the United Kingdom

OBJECTIVE

This article estimates the life-cycle value of risperidone as representative of second-generation antipsychotics (SGA) relative to haloperidol (first-generation antipsychotics).

METHODS

We estimated the number of patients treated with risperidone in Sweden and the United Kingdom, from 1994 to 2017, using data of usage and volume sales. We collected data from the literature on the effectiveness (quality-adjusted life-years per patient per year), direct costs (health services), and indirect costs (productivity) of risperidone and haloperidol. We proxied the incremental value added by the new class (SGA) using a comparator from the inferior class. Next, we modeled the life-cycle uptake of risperidone to estimate the life-cycle incremental cost (ie, direct, indirect, and medicine costs), incremental quality-adjusted life-years, and net monetary benefit of risperidone. We also assessed the life-cycle distribution of the social surplus between the payer (consumer surplus) and the innovator (producer surplus).

RESULTS

For the United Kingdom, consumer surplus represents around 72% of the total surplus before patent expiration and around 95% after patent expiration. For Sweden, the consumer surplus represents around 94% of the total surplus before patent expiration and around 99% after generic competition.

CONCLUSION

These results suggest that the value added by SGAs to the system is higher than the expected value estimated using cost-effectiveness analysis at launch. Pricing and reimbursement decisions could recognize the full life cycle of value of innovative medicines. This not only presents a challenge of estimation but also of assessing the appropriate division of shares of social value.

Longitudinal Doppler Assessments in Late Preterm Fetal Growth Restriction

PURPOSE

 To assess the longitudinal variation of the ratio of umbilical and cerebral artery pulsatility index (UCR) in late preterm fetal growth restriction (FGR).

MATERIALS AND METHODS

 A prospective European multicenter observational study included women with a singleton pregnancy, 32^+ 0-36^+ 6, at risk of FGR (estimated fetal weight [EFW] or abdominal circumference [AC] < 10^th percentile, abnormal arterial Doppler or fall in AC from 20-week scan of > 40 percentile points). The primary outcome was a composite of abnormal condition at birth or major neonatal morbidity. UCR was categorized as normal (< 0.9) or abnormal (≥ 0.9). UCR was assessed by gestational age at measurement interval to delivery, and by individual linear regression coefficient in women with two or more measurements.

RESULTS

 856 women had 2770 measurements; 696 (81 %) had more than one measurement (median 3 (IQR 2-4). At inclusion, 63 (7 %) a UCR ≥ 0.9. These delivered earlier and had a lower birth weight and higher incidence of adverse outcome (30 % vs. 9 %, relative risk 3.2; 95 %CI 2.1-5.0) than women with a normal UCR at inclusion. Repeated measurements after an abnormal UCR at inclusion were abnormal again in 67 % (95 %CI 55-80), but after a normal UCR the chance of finding an abnormal UCR was 6 % (95 %CI 5-7 %). The risk of composite adverse outcome was similar using the first or subsequent UCR values.

CONCLUSION

 An abnormal UCR is likely to be abnormal again at a later measurement, while after a normal UCR the chance of an abnormal UCR is 5-7 % when repeated weekly. Repeated measurements do not predict outcome better than the first measurement, most likely due to the most compromised fetuses being delivered after an abnormal UCR.

A global analysis of the value of precision medicine in oncology - The case of non-small cell lung cancer

Objectives

Biomarker testing is indispensable for the implementation of precision medicine (PM) in oncology. The aim of this study was to assess the value of biomarker testing from a holistic perspective based on the example of advanced non-small cell lung cancer (aNSCLC).

Materials and methods

A partitioned survival model was populated with data from pivotal clinical trials of first-line treatments in aNSCLC. Three testing scenarios were considered; "no biomarker testing" encompassing chemotherapy treatment, "sequential testing" for EGFR and ALK encompassing treatment with targeted- or chemotherapy, and "multigene testing" covering EGFR, ALK, ROS1, BRAF, NTRK, MET, RET and encompassing treatment with targeted- or immuno(chemo)therapy. Analyses of health outcomes and costs were run for nine countries (Australia, Brazil, China, Germany, Japan, Poland, South Africa, Turkey, United States). A 1-year and 5-year time horizon was applied. Information on test accuracy was combined with country-specific information on epidemiology and unit costs.

Results

Compared to the no-testing scenario, survival improved and treatment-related adverse events decreased with increased testing. Five-year survival increased from 2% to 5-7% and to 13-19% with sequential testing and multigene testing, respectively. The highest survival gains were observed in East Asia due to a higher local prevalence of targetable mutations. Overall costs increased with increased testing in all countries. Although costs for testing and medicines increased, costs for treatment of adverse events and end-of-life care decreased throughout all years. Non-health care costs (sick leave and disability pension payments) decreased during the first year but increased over a 5-year horizon.

Conclusion

The broad use of biomarker testing and PM in aNSCLC leads to more efficient treatment assignment and improves health outcomes for patients globally, in particular prolonged progression-free disease phase and overall survival. These health gains require investment in biomarker testing and medicines. While costs for testing and medicines would initially increase, cost decreases for other medical services and non-health care costs may partly offset the cost increases.

A Proposal of a Cost-Effectiveness Modeling Approach for Heart Failure Treatment Assessment: Considering the Short- and Long-Term Impact of Hospitalization on Event Rates

BACKGROUND

The rate of events such as recurrent heart failure (HF) hospitalization and death are known to dramatically increase directly after HF hospitalization. Furthermore, the number of HF hospitalizations is associated with irreversible long-term disease progression, which is in turn associated with increased event rates. However, cost-effectiveness models of HF treatments commonly fail to capture both the short- and long-term association between HF hospitalization and events.

OBJECTIVE

The aim of this study was to provide a decision-analytic model that reflects the short- and long-term association between HF hospitalization and event rates. Furthermore, we assess the impact of omitting these associations.

METHODS

We developed a life-time Markov cohort model to evaluate HF treatments, and modeled the short-term impact of HF hospitalization on event rates via a sequence of tunnel states, with transition probabilities following a parametric survival curve. The corresponding long-term impact was modeled via hazard ratios per HF hospitalization. We obtained baseline event rates and utilities from published literature. Subsequently, we assessed, for a hypothetical HF treatment, how omitting the modeled associations (through a simple two-state model) affects incremental quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs).

RESULTS

We developed a model that incorporates both short- and long-term impacts of HF hospitalizations. Based on an assumed treatment effect of a 20% risk reduction for HF hospitalization (and associated reductions in all-cause mortality of 15%), omitting the short-term, the long-term, or both associations resulted in a 5%, 1%, and 22% decrease in QALYs gained, respectively.

CONCLUSION

For both modeling components, i.e., the short- and long-term implications of HF hospitalization, the impact on incremental outcomes associated with treatment was substantial. Considering these aspects as proposed within this modeling approach better reflects the natural course of this progressive condition and will enhance the evaluation of future HF treatments.

Systemic anti-cancer therapy patterns in advanced non-small cell lung cancer in Europe

BACKGROUND

Systemic anti-cancer therapy (SACT) is the recommended treatment modality in patients with advanced non-small cell lung cancer (aNSCLC) in clinical guidelines. SACT options in aNSCLC have multiplied in recent years with the introduction of immunotherapy and targeted therapy. This article presents findings from the first comparative analysis of SACT patterns in Europe.

METHODS

SACT rates in aNSCLC were estimated as the ratio between the number of patients treated with SACT (chemotherapy, immunotherapy, targeted therapy) and the number of potentially eligible patients for SACT in 11 countries (Belgium, Bulgaria, Finland, Hungary, Ireland, Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Romania, UK) between 2014 and 2020. Treated patients were estimated by combining national sales volume data of cancer drugs and average drug use per patient based on clinical trials. Potentially eligible patients were estimated from national epidemiological data.

RESULTS

SACT rates in aNSCLC differed greatly, ranging from around 30 % in Hungary, Poland, and the UK to almost 60 % in Ireland, Norway, and Portugal in 2014. SACT rates seemed to increase over time in most countries, but differences were still large by 2020, ranging from around 40 % in the UK to 75 % or more in Belgium, Norway, and Portugal. Even in countries with the highest SACT rates, far from all patients seemed to receive guideline-recommended SACT options, as underuse of immunotherapy and targeted therapy was common.

CONCLUSION

Up to 35 % of eligible patients with aNSCLC receives no SACT in certain European countries, although improvements have been achieved over time. The use of immunotherapy and targeted therapy is suboptimal even in countries with high SACT rates, indicating room to improve the quality of care and patient outcomes.

POLICY SUMMARY

Measuring if and what kind of therapy cancer patients have access to is vital to assess quality of care. The care of aNSCLC patients seems to be suboptimal in Europe, due to factors such as exclusion of patients with moderate performance status from SACT, limited resources for diagnostic testing, long reimbursement timelines and slow adoption of new medicines in clinical practice.

How well do polygenic risk scores identify men at high risk for prostate cancer? Systematic review and meta-analysis

OBJECTIVES

Genome-wide association studies have revealed over 200 genetic susceptibility loci for prostate cancer (PCa). By combining them, polygenic risk scores (PRS) can be generated to predict risk of PCa. We summarize the published evidence and conduct meta-analyses of PRS as a predictor of PCa risk in Caucasian men.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

Data were extracted from 59 studies, with 16 studies including 17 separate analyses used in the main meta-analysis with a total of 20,786 cases and 69,106 controls identified through a systematic search of ten databases. Random effects meta-analysis was used to obtain pooled estimates of area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUC). Meta-regression was used to assess the impact of number of single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) incorporated in PRS on AUC. Heterogeneity is expressed as I² scores. Publication bias was evaluated using funnel plots and Egger tests.

RESULTS

The ability of PRS to identify men with PCa was modest (pooled AUC 0.63, 95% CI 0.62-0.64) with moderate consistency (I² 64%). Combining PRS with clinical variables increased the pooled AUC to 0.74 (0.68-0.81). Meta-regression showed only negligible increase in AUC for adding incremental SNPs. Despite moderate heterogeneity, publication bias was not evident.

CONCLUSION

Typically, PRS accuracy is comparable to PSA or family history with a pooled AUC value 0.63 indicating mediocre performance for PRS alone.

Microbial and human transcriptome in vaginal fluid at midgestation: Association with spontaneous preterm delivery

BACKGROUND

Intrauterine infection and inflammation caused by microbial transfer from the vagina are believed to be important factors causing spontaneous preterm delivery (PTD). Multiple studies have examined the relationship between the cervicovaginal microbiome and spontaneous PTD with divergent results. Most studies have applied a DNA-based assessment, providing information on the microbial composition but not transcriptional activity. A transcriptomic approach was applied to investigate differences in the active vaginal microbiome and human transcriptome at midgestation between women delivering spontaneously preterm versus those delivering at term.

METHODS

Vaginal swabs were collected in women with a singleton pregnancy at 18 + 0 to 20 + 6 gestational weeks. For each case of spontaneous PTD (delivery <37 + 0 weeks) two term controls were randomized (39 + 0 to 40 + 6 weeks). Vaginal specimens were subject to sequencing of both human and microbial RNA. Microbial reads were taxonomically classified using Kraken2 and RefSeq as a reference. Statistical analyses were performed using DESeq2. GSEA and HUMAnN3 were used for pathway analyses.

RESULTS

We found 17 human genes to be differentially expressed (false discovery rate, FDR < 0.05) in the preterm group (n = 48) compared to the term group (n = 96). Gene expression of kallikrein-2 (KLK2), KLK3 and four isoforms of metallothioneins 1 (MT1s) was higher in the preterm group (FDR < 0.05). We found 11 individual bacterial species to be differentially expressed (FDR < 0.05), most with a low occurrence. No statistically significant differences in bacterial load, diversity or microbial community state types were found between the groups.

CONCLUSIONS

In our mainly white population, primarily bacterial species of low occurrence were differentially expressed at midgestation in women who delivered preterm versus at term. However, the expression of specific human transcripts including KLK2, KLK3 and several isoforms of MT1s was higher in preterm cases. This is of interest, because these genes may be involved in critical inflammatory pathways associated with spontaneous PTD.

Value appropriation in hepatitis C

BACKGROUND

In 2015, the Swedish government in an unprecedented move decided to allocate 150 million € to provide funding for new drugs for hepatitis C. This was triggered by the introduction of the first second generation of direct-acting antivirals (DAAs) promising higher cure rates and reduced side effects. The drugs were cost-effective but had a prohibitive budget impact. Subsequently, additional products have entered the market leading to reduction in prices and expansions of the eligible patient base.

METHODS

We estimated the social surplus generated by the new DAAs in Stockholm, Sweden, for the years 2014-2019. The actual use and cost of the drugs was based on registry data. Effects on future health care costs, indirect costs and QALY gains were estimated using a Markov model based primarily on Swedish data and using previous generations of interferon-based therapies as the counterfactual.

RESULTS

A considerable social surplus was generated, 15% of which was appropriated by the producers whose share fell rapidly over time as prices fell. Most of the consumer surplus was generated by QALY gains, although 10% was from reduced indirect costs. QALY gains increased less rapidly than the number of treated patients as the eligibility criteria was loosened.

CONCLUSIONS

The transfer of funds from the government to the regions helped generate substantial surplus for both consumers and producers with indirect costs playing an important role. The funding model may serve as a model for the financing of innovative treatments in the future.

Cost-effectiveness of cervical length screening and progesterone treatment to prevent spontaneous preterm delivery in Sweden

OBJECTIVE

To estimate the cost-effectiveness of strategies to prevent spontaneous preterm delivery (PTD) in asymptomatic singleton pregnancies, using prevalence and healthcare cost data from the Swedish healthcare context.

METHODS

We designed a decision analytic model based on the Swedish CERVIX study to estimate the cost-effectiveness of strategies to prevent spontaneous PTD in asymptomatic women with a singleton pregnancy. The model was constructed as a combined decision-tree model and Markov model with a time horizon of 100 years. Four preventive strategies, namely 'Universal screening', 'High-risk-based screening' (i.e. screening of high-risk women only), 'Low-risk-based screening' (i.e. treatment of high-risk population and screening of remaining women) and 'Nullipara screening' (i.e. treatment of high-risk population and screening of nulliparous women only), included second-trimester cervical length (CL) screening by transvaginal ultrasound followed by vaginal progesterone treatment in the case of a short cervix. A fifth preventive strategy involved vaginal progesterone treatment of women with previous spontaneous PTD or late miscarriage but no CL screening ('No screening, treat high-risk group'). For comparison, we used a sixth strategy implying no specific intervention to prevent spontaneous PTD, reflecting the current situation in Sweden ('No screening'). Probabilities for a short cervix (CL ≤ 25 mm; base-case) and for spontaneous PTD at < 33 + 0 weeks and at 33 + 0 to 36 + 6 weeks were derived from the CERVIX study, and probabilities for stillbirth, neonatal mortality and long-term morbidity (cerebral palsy) from Swedish health data registers. Costs were based on Swedish data, except costs for cerebral palsy, which were based on Danish data. We assumed that vaginal progesterone reduces spontaneous PTD before 33 weeks by 30% and spontaneous PTD at 33-36 weeks by 10% (based on the literature). All analyses were from a societal perspective. We expressed the effectiveness of each strategy as gained quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) and presented cost-effectiveness as average (ACER; average cost per gained QALY compared with 'No screening') and incremental (ICER; difference in costs divided by the difference in QALYs for each of two strategies being compared) cost-effectiveness ratios. We performed deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analysis. The results of the latter are shown as cost-effectiveness acceptability curves. Willingness-to-pay was set at a maximum of 500 000 Swedish krona (56 000 US dollars (USD)), as suggested by the Swedish National Board of Health and Welfare.

RESULTS

All interventions had better health outcomes than did 'No screening', with fewer screening-year deaths and more lifetime QALYs. The best strategy in terms of improved health outcomes was 'Low-risk-based screening', irrespective of whether screening was performed at 18 + 0 to 20 + 6 weeks (Cx1) or at 21 + 0 to 23 + 6 weeks (Cx2). 'Low-risk-based screening' at Cx1 was cost-effective, while 'Low-risk-based screening' at Cx2 entailed high costs compared with other alternatives. The ACERs were 2200 USD for 'Low-risk-based screening' at Cx1 and 36 800 USD for 'Low-risk-based screening' at Cx2. Cost-effectiveness was particularly sensitive to progesterone effectiveness and to productivity loss due to sick leave during pregnancy. The probability that 'Low-risk-based screening' at Cx1 is cost-effective compared with 'No screening' was 71%.

CONCLUSION

Interventions to prevent spontaneous PTD in asymptomatic women with a singleton pregnancy, including CL screening with progesterone treatment of cases with a short cervix, may be cost-effective in Sweden. © 2022 The Authors. Ultrasound in Obstetrics & Gynecology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of International Society of Ultrasound in Obstetrics and Gynecology.

Perinatal and 2-year neurodevelopmental outcome in late preterm fetal compromise: the TRUFFLE 2 randomised trial protocol

INTRODUCTION

Following the detection of fetal growth restriction, there is no consensus about the criteria that should trigger delivery in the late preterm period. The consequences of inappropriate early or late delivery are potentially important yet practice varies widely around the world, with abnormal findings from fetal heart rate monitoring invariably leading to delivery. Indices derived from fetal cerebral Doppler examination may guide such decisions although there are few studies in this area. We propose a randomised, controlled trial to establish the optimum method of timing delivery between 32 weeks and 36 weeks 6 days of gestation. We hypothesise that delivery on evidence of cerebral blood flow redistribution reduces a composite of perinatal poor outcome, death and short-term hypoxia-related morbidity, with no worsening of neurodevelopmental outcome at 2 years.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

Women with non-anomalous singleton pregnancies 32+0 to 36+6 weeks of gestation in whom the estimated fetal weight or abdominal circumference is <10th percentile or has decreased by 50 percentiles since 18-32 weeks will be included for observational data collection. Participants will be randomised if cerebral blood flow redistribution is identified, based on umbilical to middle cerebral artery pulsatility index ratio values. Computerised cardiotocography (cCTG) must show normal fetal heart rate short term variation (≥4.5 msec) and absence of decelerations at randomisation. Randomisation will be 1:1 to immediate delivery or delayed delivery (based on cCTG abnormalities or other worsening fetal condition). The primary outcome is poor condition at birth and/or fetal or neonatal death and/or major neonatal morbidity, the secondary non-inferiority outcome is 2-year infant general health and neurodevelopmental outcome based on the Parent Report of Children's Abilities-Revised questionnaire.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

The Study Coordination Centre has obtained approval from London-Riverside Research Ethics Committee (REC) and Health Regulatory Authority (HRA). Publication will be in line with NIHR Open Access policy.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

Main sponsor: Imperial College London, Reference: 19QC5491. Funders: NIHR HTA, Reference: 127 976. Study coordination centre: Imperial College Healthcare NHS Trust, Du Cane Road, London, W12 0HS with Centre for Trials Research, College of Biomedical & Life Sciences, Cardiff University. IRAS Project ID: 266 400. REC reference: 20/LO/0031. ISRCTN registry: 76 016 200.

C5: A Step Towards Smart World with Enhanced Holistic Wellbeing

Today our life without smart gadgets is beyond imagination. In fact, smart apps are now the inseparable part of a human life. The use of technology has provided more comfortable and easier life than ancient times, but the overuse of social media and mobile devices may lead to numerous Psychological, Physical and Psychosomatic (P3) disorders, such as eyestrain, anxiety, fatigue, and difficulty focusing on important tasks. They may also create serious health malfunctions, such as depression and hypertension. Social media may be the first solution that comes to mind when we are lonely; it seems to be a quick and easy access to number of people. However, many studies have shown that our online networks, although they may offer an illusion of connectedness, rather make us even lonelier and more segregated. The overuse of technology may have a significant impact on developing children and teenagers. Mind is the powerhouse of a human body, and the activity level determines the overall health of a person. Hyperactive or hypoactive minds, both are the signs of abnormality and to avoid such conditions C5 (Creativity, Contentment, Confidence, Calmness, Concentration) concept is being practiced. In this paper, we present a novel idea of using C5 concept for overall harmonical holistic development. A good relationship is established between C5 growth along with HEALTH (Harmony, Energy, Aesthetics, Limberness, Tranquility & Happiness). The convenience of C5 concept to assess anxiousness and stressed mental state of a person through empathetic intelligence by applying haptic Aps via tactile internet makes our world smarter than present times to dwell in with a proper care of ourselves and our related people giving better outcomes in our personal and professional fronts.

Cost-effectiveness of proprotein convertase subtilisin/kexin type 9 inhibition with evolocumab in patients with a history of myocardial infarction in Sweden

Aims

To assess the cost-effectiveness of proprotein convertase subtilisin/kexin type 9 inhibition with evolocumab added to standard-of-care lipid-lowering treatment [maximum tolerated dose (MTD) of statin and ezetimibe] in Swedish patients with a history of myocardial infarction (MI).

Methods and results

Cost-effectiveness was evaluated using a Markov model based on Swedish observational data on cardiovascular event rates and efficacy from the FOURIER trial. Three risk profiles were considered: recent MI in the previous year; history of MI with a risk factor; and history of MI with a second event within 2 years. For each population, three minimum baseline low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) levels were considered: 2.5 mmol/L (≈100 mg/dL), based on the current reimbursement recommendation in Sweden; 1.8 mmol/L (≈70 mg/dL), based on 2016 ESC/EAS guidelines; and 1.4 mmol/L (≈55 mg/dL), or 1.0 mmol/L (≈40 mg/dL) for MI with a second event, based on 2019 ESC/EAS guidelines. Proprotein convertase subtilisin/kexin type 9 inhibition with evolocumab was associated with increased quality-adjusted life-years and costs vs. standard-of-care therapy. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) were below SEK700 000 (∼€66 500), the generally accepted willingness-to-pay threshold in Sweden, for minimum LDL-C levels of 2.3 (recent MI), 1.7 (MI with a risk factor), and 1.7 mmol/L (MI with a second event). Sensitivity analyses demonstrated that base-case results were robust to changes in model parameters.

Conclusion

Proprotein convertase subtilisin/kexin type 9 inhibition with evolocumab added to MTD of statin and ezetimibe may be considered cost-effective at its list price for minimum LDL-C levels of 1.7–2.3 mmol/L, depending on risk profile, with ICERs below the accepted willingness-to-pay threshold in Sweden.

Predicted Lifetime Health Outcomes for Aducanumab in Patients with Early Alzheimer's Disease

INTRODUCTION

Alzheimer's disease (AD) is a chronic and progressive neurodegenerative disease that places a substantial burden on patients and caregivers. Aducanumab is the first AD therapy approved by the US Food and Drug Administration to reduce a defining pathophysiological feature of the disease, brain amyloid plaques. In the phase 3 clinical trial EMERGE (NCT02484547), aducanumab reduced clinical decline in patients with mild cognitive impairment (MCI) due to AD and mild AD dementia and confirmed amyloid pathology.

METHODS

We used a Markov modeling approach to predict the long-term clinical benefits of aducanumab for patients with early AD based on EMERGE efficacy data. In the model, patients could transition between AD severity levels (MCI due to AD; mild, moderate, and severe AD dementia) and care settings (community vs. institution) or transition to death. The intervention was aducanumab added to standard of care (SOC), and the comparator was SOC alone. Data sources for base-case and scenario analyses included EMERGE, published National Alzheimer's Coordinating Center analyses, and other published literature.

RESULTS

Per patient over a lifetime horizon, aducanumab treatment corresponded to 0.65 incremental patient quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) and 0.09 fewer caregiver QALYs lost compared with patients treated with SOC. Aducanumab treatment translated to a lower lifetime probability of transitioning to AD dementia, a lower lifetime probability of transitioning to institutionalization (25.2% vs. 29.4%), delays in the median time to transition to AD dementia (7.50 vs. 4.92 years from MCI to moderate AD dementia or worse), and an incremental median time in the community of 1.32 years compared with SOC.

CONCLUSION

The model predicted long-term benefits of aducanumab treatment in patients with MCI due to AD and mild AD dementia and their caregivers. The predicted outcomes provide a foundation for healthcare decision-makers and policymakers to understand the potential clinical and socioeconomic value of aducanumab.

Effect of second-trimester sonographic cervical length on the risk of spontaneous preterm delivery in different risk groups: A prospective observational multicenter study

INTRODUCTION

The aim of the study is to compare the effect of cervical length measured with transvaginal ultrasound in the second trimester on the risk of spontaneous preterm delivery (PTD) between different risk groups of asymptomatic women with a singleton pregnancy.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

This is a pre-planned exploratory analysis of the CERVIX study, a prospective blinded multicenter diagnostic accuracy study. Asymptomatic women with a singleton pregnancy were consecutively recruited at their second-trimester routine ultrasound examination at seven Swedish ultrasound centers. Cervical length was measured with transvaginal ultrasound at 18-20 weeks (Cx1; n = 11 072) and 21-23 weeks (Cx2, optional; n = 6288). The effect of cervical length on the risk of spontaneous PTD and its discriminative ability was compared between women with: (i) previous spontaneous PTD, late miscarriage or cervical conization (high-risk group; n = 1045); (ii) nulliparae without risk factors (n = 5173); (iii) parae without risk factors (n = 4740). Women with previous indicated PTD were excluded (n = 114). Main outcome measures were: effect of cervical length on the risk of spontaneous PTD expressed as odds ratio per 5-mm decrease in cervical length with interaction analysis using logistic regression to test whether the effect differed between groups, area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), sensitivity, specificity, number needed to screen to detect one spontaneous PTD.

RESULTS

The effect of cervical length at Cx2 on the risk of spontaneous PTD <33 weeks was similar in all groups (odds ratios 2.26-2.58, interaction p value 0.91). The discriminative ability at Cx2 was superior to that at Cx1 and was similar in all groups (AUC 0.69-0.76). Cervical length ≤25 mm at Cx2 identified 57% of spontaneous preterm deliveries <33 weeks in the high-risk group with number needed to screen 161. The number needed to screen for groups (ii) and (iii) were 1018 and 843.

CONCLUSIONS

The effect of cervical length at 21-23 weeks on the risk of spontaneous PTD <33 weeks is similar in high- and low-risk pregnancies. The differences in number needed to screen should be considered before implementing a screening program.

Fetal Superior Vena Cava Blood Flow and Its Fraction of Cardiac Output: A Longitudinal Ultrasound Study in the Second Half of Pregnancy

Introduction: In the fetus, a large proportion of the superior vena cava blood flow (QSVC) comes from the brain. To provide the possibility of using this blood flow as a representation of fetal brain circulation, we aimed to determine the fetal QSVC and its fraction of cardiac output during the second half of physiological pregnancies. Materials and Methods: This was a prospective longitudinal study specifically designed for studying fetal hemodynamic development. Healthy women with singleton low-risk pregnancies were included. Ultrasonography was performed at 4-weekly intervals from 20+0 gestational weeks to term. Doppler velocity recordings of the superior vena cava (SVC) and cardiac ventricular outflow tracts were used to obtain the time-averaged maximum velocities (TAMxV). Vessel diameters were measured to calculate their cross-sectional areas (CSA): π(diameter/2)2. Blood flow (Q) was computed as: h *TAMxV*CSA, h being the spatial blood velocity profile, to obtain QSVC and cardiac outputs. The sum of left and right ventricular cardiac outputs constituted the combined cardiac output (CCO). Ultrasound biometry based estimated fetal weight and brain weight were used to normalize the flow. QSVC was also expressed as the fraction (%) of CCO. Gestational age specific percentiles were established for each blood flow parameter using multilevel modeling. Results: Totally, 134 of the 142 included women were eligible for the study with 575 sets of observations. The SVC mean diameter (19-52 mm), mean TAMxV (8.83-16.14 cm/s), and QSVC (15.4-192.0 ml/min) increased significantly during the second half of pregnancy (p < 0.001) while the mean QSVC normalized by estimated fetal weight (49 ml/min/kg) and by estimated brain weight (50 ml/min/100 g) were relatively stable. Similarly, the mean CCO increased (156-1,776 ml/min; p < 0.001) while the normalized CCO (509 ± 13 ml/min/kg) and QSVC as a fraction of CCO (10 ± 0.92%) did not change significantly with gestational age. Conclusion: We provide reference values for fetal QSVC which increases significantly with gestation, and constitutes roughly 10% of the fetal CCO at any time during the second half of pregnancy.

Reference ranges of fetal superior vena cava blood flow velocities and pulsatility index in the second half of pregnancy: a longitudinal study

Background

Fetal superior vena cava (SVC) is essentially the single vessel returning blood from the upper body to the heart. With approximately 80-85% of SVC blood flow representing cerebral venous return, its interrogation may provide clinically relevant information about fetal brain circulation. However, normal reference values for fetal SVC Doppler velocities and pulsatility index are lacking. Our aim was to establish longitudinal reference intervals for blood flow velocities and pulsatility index of the SVC during the second half of pregnancy.

Methods

This was a prospective study of low-risk singleton pregnancies. Serial Doppler examinations were performed approximately every 4 weeks to obtain fetal SVC blood velocity waveforms during 20–41 weeks. Peak systolic (S) velocity, diastolic (D) velocity, time-averaged maximum velocity (TAMxV), time-averaged intensity-weighted mean velocity (TAMeanV), and end-diastolic velocity during atrial contraction (A-velocity) were measured. Pulsatility index for vein (PIV) was calculated.

Results

SVC blood flow velocities were successfully recorded in the 134 fetuses yielding 510 sets of observations. The velocities increased significantly with advancing gestation: mean S-velocity increased from 24.0 to 39.8 cm/s, D-velocity from 13.0 to 19.0 cm/s, and A-velocity from 4.8 to 7.1 cm/s. Mean TAMxV increased from 12.7 to 23.1 cm/s, and TAMeanV from 6.9 to 11.2 cm/s. The PIV remained stable at 1.5 throughout the second half of pregnancy.

Conclusions

Longitudinal reference intervals of SVC blood flow velocities and PIV were established for the second half of pregnancy. The SVC velocities increased with advancing gestation, while the PIV remained stable from 20 weeks to term.

Reduced work absenteeism in patients with hepatitis C treated with second-generation direct-acting antivirals

The cost-effectiveness of the second-generation direct-acting antivirals (DAA) has received considerable attention; however, their effect on wider societal costs has remained relatively unexplored. The aim of this study was to investigate the effect the new drugs have on sick leave compared to older treatment paradigms. This retrospective study utilized Swedish registry data to identify three cohorts: (a) patients treated with ribavirin and/or peginterferons (peg-IFN) during 2005-2011; (b) patients treated with the first generation of DAAs and ribavirin and/or peg-IFN 2011-2013; and (c) patients treated with the new generation of DAAs 2014-2018. Individual-level data on sick leave and early retirement were used to compare days away from work the year prior to the year following treatment initiation. A difference-in-difference model was estimated to test for differences between the cohorts adjusting for age and gender. Days away from work prior to treatment initiation was similar in the cohorts: 106, 85 and 94 days in cohorts 1 to 3. After treatment initiation, the number of days away from worked increased in cohort one and two to 150 and 140 days, while it remained similar in cohort three (88 days). The monetary value of the avoided sick leave was 7000-10 000 €. In conclusion, patients treated with second-generation DAAs without peg-IFN had fewer days of sick leave in the year following treatment initiation compared to older treatments. Some caution is advised when interpreting the absolute figures due to potential heterogeneity between cohorts as they were treated at different points in time.

Costs of diabetes complications: hospital-based care and absence from work for 392,200 people with type 2 diabetes and matched control participants in Sweden

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS

The risk of complications and medical consequences of type 2 diabetes are well known. Hospital costs have been identified as a key driver of total costs in studies of the economic burden of type 2 diabetes. Less evidence has been generated on the impact of individual diabetic complications on the overall societal burden. The objective of this study was to analyse costs of hospital-based healthcare (inpatient and outpatient care) and work absence related to individual macrovascular and microvascular complications of type 2 diabetes in Sweden in 2016.

METHODS

Data for 2016 were retrieved from a Swedish national retrospective observational database cross-linking individual-level data for 1997-2016. The database contained information from population-based health, social insurance and socioeconomic registers for 392,200 people with type 2 diabetes and matched control participants (5:1). Presence of type 2 diabetes and of diabetes complications were derived using all years, 1997-2016. Costs of hospital-based care and of absence from work due to diabetes complications were estimated for the year 2016. Regression analysis was used for comparison with control participants to attribute absence from work to individual complications, and to account for joint presence of complications.

RESULTS

Use of hospital care for complications was higher in type 2 diabetes compared with control participants in 2016: 26% vs 12% had ≥1 hospital contact; there were 86,104 vs 24,608 outpatient visits per 100,000 people; and there were 9894 vs 2546 inpatient admissions per 100,000 people (all p < 0.001). The corresponding total costs of hospital-based care for complications were €919 vs €232 per person (p < 0.001), and 74.7% of costs were then directly attributed to diabetes (€687 per person). Regression analyses distributed the costs of days absent from work across diabetes complications per se, basic type 2 diabetes effect and unattributed causes. Diabetes complications amounted to €1317 per person in 2016, accounting for possible complex interactions (25% of total costs of days absent). Key drivers of costs were the macrovascular complications angina pectoris, heart failure and stroke; and the microvascular complications eye diseases, including retinopathy, kidney disease and neuropathy. Early mortality in working ages cost an additional €579 per person and medications used in risk-factor treatment amounted to €418 per person.

CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION

The economic burden of complications in type 2 diabetes is substantial. Costs of absence from work in this study were found to be greater than of hospital-based care, highlighting the need for considering treatment consequences in a societal perspective in research and policy. Graphical abstract.

Healthcare pathways and resource use: mapping consequences of ambulance assessment for direct care with alternative healthcare providers

Background

A decision system in the ambulance allowing alternative pathways to alternate healthcare providers has been developed for older patients in Stockholm, Sweden. However, subsequent healthcare resource use resulting from these pathways has not yet been addressed. The aim of this study was therefore to describe patient pathways, healthcare utilisation and costs following ambulance transportation to alternative healthcare providers.

Methods

The design of this study was descriptive and observational. Data from a previous RCT, where a decision system in the ambulance enabled alternative healthcare pathways to alternate healthcare providers were linked to register data. The receiving providers were: primary acute care centre or secondary geriatric ward, both located at the same community hospital, or the conventional pathway to the emergency department at an acute hospital. Resource use over 10 days, subsequent to assessment with the decision system, was mapped in terms of healthcare pathways, utilisation and costs for the 98 included cases.

Results

Almost 90% were transported to the acute care centre or geriatric ward. The vast majority arriving to the geriatric ward stayed there until the end of follow-up or until discharged, whereas patients conveyed to the acute care centre to a large extent were admitted to hospital. The median patient had 6 hospital days, 2 outpatient visits and costed roughly 4000 euros over the 10-day period. Arrival destination geriatric ward indicated the longest hospital stay and the emergency department the shortest. However, the cost for the 10-day period was lower for cases arriving to the geriatric ward than for those arriving to the emergency department.

Conclusions

The findings support the appropriateness of admittance directly to secondary geriatric care for older adults. However, patients conveyed to the acute care centre ought to be studied in more detail with regards to appropriate level of care.

Second-trimester transvaginal ultrasound measurement of cervical length for prediction of preterm birth: a blinded prospective multicentre diagnostic accuracy study

Objective

To estimate the diagnostic performance of sonographic cervical length for the prediction of preterm birth (PTB).

Design

Prospective observational multicentre study.

Setting

Seven Swedish ultrasound centres.

Sample

A cohort of 11 456 asymptomatic women with a singleton pregnancy.

Methods

Cervical length was measured with transvaginal ultrasound at 18–20 weeks of gestation (C×1) and at 21–23 weeks of gestation (C×2, optional). Staff and participants were blinded to results.

Main outcome measures

Area under receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values (PPV and NPV), positive and negative likelihood ratios (LR+ and LR−), number of false‐positive results per true‐positive result (FP/TP), number needed to screen to detect one PTB (NNS) and prevalence of ‘short’ cervix.

Results

Spontaneous PTB (sPTB) at <33 weeks of gestation occurred in 56/11 072 (0.5%) women in the C×1 population (89% white) and in 26/6288 (0.4%) in the C×2 population (92% white). The discriminative ability of shortest endocervical length was better the earlier the sPTB occurred and was better at C×2 than at C×1 (AUC to predict sPTB at <33 weeks of gestation 0.76 versus 0.65, difference in AUC 0.11, 95% CI 0.01–0.23). At C×2, the shortest endocervical length of ≤25 mm (prevalence 4.4%) predicted sPTB at <33 weeks of gestation with sensitivity 38.5% (10/26), specificity 95.8% (5998/6262), PPV 3.6% (10/274), NPV 99.7% (5988/6014), LR+ 9.1, LR− 0.64, FP/TP 26 and NNS 629.

Conclusions

Second‐trimester sonographic cervical length can identify women at high risk of sPTB. In a population of mainly white women with a low prevalence of sPTB its diagnostic performance is at best moderate.

Tweetable abstract

Cervical length screening to predict preterm birth in a white low‐risk population has moderate performance.

Cervical length screening to predict preterm birth in a white low‐risk population has moderate performance.

Study for Improving Maternal Pregnancy And Child ouTcomes (IMPACT): a study protocol for a Swedish prospective multicentre cohort study

INTRODUCTION

First-trimester pregnancy risk evaluation facilitates individualised antenatal care, as well as application of preventive strategies for pre-eclampsia or birth of a small for gestational age infant. A range of early intervention strategies in pregnancies identified as high risk at the end of the first trimester has been shown to decrease the risk of preterm pre-eclampsia (<37 gestational weeks). The aim of this project is to create the Improving Maternal Pregnancy And Child ouTcomes (IMPACT) database; a nationwide database with individual patient data, including predictors recorded at the end of the first trimester and later pregnancy outcomes, to identify women at high risk of pre-eclampsia. A second aim is to link the IMPACT database to a biobank with first-trimester blood samples.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

This is a Swedish prospective multicentre cohort study. Women are included between the 11th and 14th weeks of pregnancy. At inclusion, pre-identified predictors are retrieved by interviews and medical examinations. Blood samples are collected and stored in a biobank. Additional predictors and pregnancy outcomes are retrieved from the Swedish Pregnancy Register. Inclusion in the study began in November 2018 with a targeted sample size of 45 000 pregnancies by end of 2021. Creation of a new risk prediction model will then be developed, validated and implemented. The database and biobank will enable future research on prediction of various pregnancy-related complications.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

Confidentiality aspects such as data encryption and storage comply with the General Data Protection Regulation and with ethical committee requirements. This study has been granted national ethical approval by the Swedish Ethical Review Authority (Uppsala 2018-231) and national biobank approval at Uppsala Biobank (18237 2 2018 231). Results from the current as well as future studies using information from the IMPACT database will be published in peer-reviewed journals.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

NCT03831490.

Days absent from work as a result of complications associated with type 2 diabetes: Evidence from 20 years of linked national registry data in Sweden

AIMS

To analyse days absent from work related to individual microvascular, macrovascular and other complications of type 2 diabetes (T2D) and to identify key drivers of absence.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

National health and socio-economic individual-level data were analysed for the years 1997 to 2016 for people with T2D, and age-, sex- and residential region-matched controls (5:1) using linkage to Swedish national administrative registers, based on personal identity numbers. Regression analyses accounting for individual-level clustering and education were estimated to obtain days absent by individual complications. Alternative analyses, for example, workforce indicator and age subgroups, were explored for robustness and comparison purposes.

RESULTS

A total of 413 000 people with T2D aged <66 years, comprising 4.9 million person-years, was included. The crude proportion with any absence was higher among those with T2D compared to controls (47% vs. 26%) in the index year, and the median (IQR) number of days was higher (223 [77;359] vs. 196 [59;352]) if any absence. Regression analyses showed that complications per se were a key driver of days absent: stroke (+102 days); end-stage renal disease (+70 days); severe vision loss (+56 days); and angina pectoris, heart failure, and osteoarthritis (+53 days each). The alternative analyses showed similar levels of days absent and age subgroups differed in expected directions.

CONCLUSIONS

This study provides evidence of the persisting impact on productivity from complications that supports continued efforts to reduce risk factors in T2D. Future studies on burden of disease and economic evaluations of new therapies and disease management may use this new set of complication-specific estimates to improve understanding of the value of reducing complications.

Fetal cardiac function at intrauterine transfusion assessed by automated analysis of color tissue Doppler recordings

BACKGROUND

Fetal anemia is associated with a hyperdynamic circulation and cardiac remodeling. Rapid intrauterine transfusion (IUT) of blood with high hematocrit and viscosity into the umbilical vein used to treat this condition can temporarily further affect fetal heart function. The aim of this study was to evaluate the short-term changes in fetal myocardial function caused by IUT using automated analysis of cine-loops of the fetal heart obtained by color tissue Doppler imaging (cTDI).

METHODS

Fetal echocardiography was performed before and after IUT. cTDI recordings were obtained in a four-chamber view and regions of interest were placed at the atrioventricular plane in the left ventricular (LV), right ventricular (RV) and septal walls. Myocardial velocities were analyzed by an automated analysis software to obtain peak myocardial velocities during atrial contraction (Am), ventricular ejection (Sm), rapid ventricular filling (Em) and Em/Am ratio was calculated. Myocardial velocities were converted to z-scores using published reference ranges. Delta z-scores (after minus before IUT) were calculated. Correlations were assessed between variables and hemoglobin before IUT.

RESULTS

Thirty-two fetuses underwent 70 IUTs. Fourteen were first time transfusions. In the LV and septal walls, all myocardial velocities were significantly increased compared to normal values, whereas in the RV only Sm was increased before IUT (z-scores 0.26-0.52). In first time IUTs, there was a negative correlation between LV Em (rho = - 0.61, p = 0.036) and LV Em/Am (rho = - 0.82, p = 0.001) z-scores and hemoglobin before IUT. The peak myocardial velocities that were increased before IUT decreased, whereas LV Em/Am increased significantly after IUT.

CONCLUSIONS

This study showed that peak myocardial velocities assessed by cTDI are increased in fetuses before IUT reflecting the physiology of hyperdynamic circulation. In these fetuses, the fetal heart is able to adapt and efficiently handle the volume load caused by IUT by altering its myocardial function.

Fetal cerebral Doppler changes and outcome in late preterm fetal growth restriction: prospective cohort study

OBJECTIVES

To explore the association between fetal umbilical and middle cerebral artery (MCA) Doppler abnormalities and outcome in late preterm pregnancies at risk of fetal growth restriction.

METHODS

This was a prospective cohort study of singleton pregnancies at risk of fetal growth restriction at 32 + 0 to 36 + 6 weeks of gestation, enrolled in 33 European centers between 2017 and 2018, in which umbilical and fetal MCA Doppler velocimetry was performed. Pregnancies were considered at risk of fetal growth restriction if they had estimated fetal weight and/or abdominal circumference (AC) < 10^th percentile, abnormal arterial Doppler and/or a fall in AC growth velocity of more than 40 percentile points from the 20-week scan. Composite adverse outcome comprised both immediate adverse birth outcome and major neonatal morbidity. Using a range of cut-off values, the association of MCA pulsatility index and umbilicocerebral ratio (UCR) with composite adverse outcome was explored.

RESULTS

The study population comprised 856 women. There were two (0.2%) intrauterine deaths. Median gestational age at delivery was 38 (interquartile range (IQR), 37-39) weeks and birth weight was 2478 (IQR, 2140-2790) g. Compared with infants with normal outcome, those with composite adverse outcome (n = 93; 11%) were delivered at an earlier gestational age (36 vs 38 weeks) and had a lower birth weight (1900 vs 2540 g). The first Doppler observation of MCA pulsatility index < 5^th percentile and UCR Z-score above gestational-age-specific thresholds (1.5 at 32-33 weeks and 1.0 at 34-36 weeks) had the highest relative risks (RR) for composite adverse outcome (RR 2.2 (95% CI, 1.5-3.2) and RR 2.0 (95% CI, 1.4-3.0), respectively). After adjustment for confounders, the association between UCR Z-score and composite adverse outcome remained significant, although gestational age at delivery and birth-weight Z-score had a stronger association.

CONCLUSION

In this prospective multicenter study, signs of cerebral blood flow redistribution were found to be associated with adverse outcome in late preterm singleton pregnancies at risk of fetal growth restriction. Whether cerebral redistribution is a marker describing the severity of fetal growth restriction or an independent risk factor for adverse outcome remains unclear, and whether it is useful for clinical management can be answered only in a randomized trial. © 2020 The Authors. Ultrasound in Obstetrics & Gynecology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of the International Society of Ultrasound in Obstetrics and Gynecology.

A Swedish primary healthcare prevention programme focusing on promotion of physical activity and a healthy lifestyle reduced cardiovascular events and mortality: 22-year follow-up of 5761 study participants and a reference group

Objective

To evaluate long-term risk of first cardiovascular (CV) events, CV deaths and all-cause deaths in community-dwelling participants of a cardiovascular disease (CVD) prevention programme delivered in a primary care setting.

Methods

Individuals who visited a primary healthcare service in Sollentuna (Sweden) and agreed to participate in the programme between 1988 and 1993 were followed. They had at least one CV risk factor but no prior myocardial infarction and received support to increase physical activity using the programme Physical Activity on Prescription and to adopt health-promoting behaviours including cooking classes, weight reduction, smoking cessation and stress management. Participants (n=5761) were compared with a randomly selected, propensity score-matched reference group from the general population in Stockholm County (n=34 556). All individuals were followed in Swedish registers until December 2011.

Results

In the intervention group and the reference group there were 698 (12.1%) and 4647 (13.4%) first CV events, 308 (5.3%) and 2261 (6.5%) CV deaths, and 919 (16.5%) and 6405 (18.5%) all-cause deaths, respectively, during a mean follow-up of 22 years. The HR (95% CI) in the intervention group compared with the reference group was 0.88 (0.81 to 0.95) for first CV events, 0.79 (0.70 to 0.89) for CV deaths and 0.83 (0.78 to 0.89) for all-cause deaths.

Conclusions

Participation in a CVD prevention programme in primary healthcare focusing on promotion of physical activity and healthy lifestyle was associated with lower risk of CV events (12%), CV deaths (21%) and all-cause deaths (17%) after two decades. Promoting physical activity and healthy living in the primary healthcare setting may prevent CVD.

Volume blood flow-based indices of fetal brain sparing in the second half of pregnancy: A longitudinal study

INTRODUCTION

Cerebroplacental ratio (CPR) and umbilicocerebral ratio (UCR) are clinically used as a measure of fetal brain sparing. These are calculated as the ratios between the pulsatility indices (PIs) of middle cerebral (MCA) and umbilical (UA) arteries, and are an indirect representation of the balance between cerebral and placental perfusion. Volume blood flow (Q)-based ratios, ie Q-CPR or Q-UCR, would directly reflect the distribution of fetal cardiac output to the placenta and brain. Thus, we aimed to determine the development pattern of Q-CPR and Q-UCR during the second half of pregnancy, construct reference intervals, and evaluate their association with CPR and UCR.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

In a longitudinal cohort study of low-risk pregnancies, the inner diameter of the fetal superior vena cava (SVC) and umbilical vein (UV) was measured and velocity waveforms were obtained from the MCA, UA, UV and SVC using ultrasound at approximately 4-weekly intervals from 20 to 41 weeks. The CPR was calculated as PI_MCA /PI_UA and the inverse ratio was the UCR. Cerebral and placental blood flows were estimated as the product of mean velocity and cross-sectional area of the SVC and UV, respectively. Q-CPR was calculated as Q_SVC /Q_UV and the inverse as the Q-UCR. Gestational age-specific reference intervals were calculated and associations between variables were tested using multilevel regression modeling.

RESULTS

Longitudinal reference intervals of Q-CPR and Q-UCR were established based on 471 paired measurements of Q_SVC and Q_UV obtained serially from 134 singleton pregnancies. The mean Q-CPR increased from 0.4 to 0.8 during the second half of pregnancy and Q-UCR declined from 2.5 to 1.3, while the CPR and UCR had U-shaped curves but in opposite directions. No significant correlation was found between CPR and Q-CPR (R = 0.10; P = .051), or UCR and Q-UCR (R = 0.09; P = .11), and the agreement between PI-based and Q-based indices of fetal brain sparing was poor.

CONCLUSIONS

Indices of fetal brain sparing based on placental and cerebral volume blood flow differ from those calculated from UA and MCA PIs. They correlated poorly with conventional CPR and UCR, indicating that they may provide additional/different physiological information. Reference values of Q-CPR and Q-UCR established here can be useful to investigate their clinical value further.

Updated Cost-effectiveness Analysis of Evolocumab in Patients With Very High-risk Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease

Importance

In October 2018, evolocumab was made available at a reduced annual list price of $5850 in the United States. This 60% reduction was aimed at improving patient access by lowering patient copays. Shortly thereafter, the 2018 American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association cholesterol management guideline was released. An updated cost-effectiveness analysis of evolocumab in the United States may be therefore of interest to payers and prescribers.

Objective

To present an updated cost-effectiveness analysis of evolocumab added to standard background therapy compared with standard background therapy alone in patients with very high-risk atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease, reflecting the 2018 ACC/AHA guideline definition and using the new evolocumab list price.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This study used the Markov model originally used in a previous study by Fonarow et al in 2017. A US societal perspective was considered, and a range of baseline cardiovascular event rates were modeled to reflect varying risk profiles in clinical practice within patients with very high-risk atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease.

Exposures

Addition of evolocumab to standard background therapy, including maximally tolerated statin therapy (ie, the maximum intensity of statin therapy a patient can safely receive), with or without ezetimibe.

Main Outcomes and Measures

Major cardiovascular events (myocardial infarction, ischemic stroke, and cardiovascular death), costs, quality-adjusted life-years, and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios.

Results

Evolocumab was associated with both increased costs and improved outcomes when added to standard background therapy. Incremental costs ranged from $22 228 to $3411, depending on the varying level of risk within the defined population. Incremental quality-adjusted life years ranged from 0.39 to 0.44. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios ranged from $56 655 to $7667 per quality-adjusted life-year gained. For a range of baseline cardiovascular event rates in patients with very high-risk atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease, incremental cost-effectiveness ratios were below the generally accepted willingness-to-pay thresholds. Moreover, the ratios were below the threshold of $50 000 per quality-adjusted life-years gained for any baseline rate of 6.9 or more events per 100 patient-years.

Conclusions and Relevance

At its current list price, the addition of evolocumab to standard background therapy meets accepted cost-effectiveness thresholds across a range of baseline cardiovascular event rates in patients with very high-risk atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease as defined by the 2018 ACC/AHA guideline.

Time-driven activity-based costing for patients with multiple chronic conditions: a mixed-method study to cost care in a multidisciplinary and integrated care delivery centre at a university-affiliated tertiary teaching hospital in Stockholm, Sweden

OBJECTIVE

This study can be applied to cost the complex non-standardised processes used to treat patients with multiple chronic conditions.

DESIGN

A mixed-method approach to cost analysis, following a modified healthcare-specific version of the seven-step Time-Driven Activity-Based Costing (TDABC) approach.

SETTING

A multidisciplinary integrated and person-centred care delivery centre at a university-affiliated tertiary teaching hospital in Stockholm, Sweden, designed to improve care coordination for patients with multiple chronic conditions, specifically diabetes, cardiovascular disease and kidney disease.

PARTICIPANTS

314 patients (248 men and 66 women) fit inclusion criteria. Average age was 80 years.

RESULTS

This modified TDABC analysis costed outpatient care for patients with multiple chronic conditions. The approach accounted for the difficulty of conceptualising care cycles. The estimated total cost, stratified by resources, can be reviewed together with existing managerial accounting statements to inform management decisions regarding the multidisciplinary centre.

CONCLUSIONS

This article demonstrates that the healthcare-specific seven-step approach to TDABC can be applied to cost care for patients with multiple chronic conditions, where pathways are not yet discernable. It became clear that there was a need for slight methodological adaptations for this particular patient group to make it possible to cost these pathways, stratified by activity and resource. The value of this approach can be discerned from the way management incorporated the results of this analysis into the development of their hospital strategy. In the absence of integrated data infrastructures that can link patients and resources across financial, clinical and process data sets, the scalability of this method will be difficult.

Second trimester cervical length measurements with transvaginal ultrasound: A prospective observational agreement and reliability study

INTRODUCTION

Universal screening for preterm delivery by adding transvaginal ultrasound measurement of cervical length to routine second trimester ultrasound has been proposed. The aim is to estimate inter- and intraobserver agreement and reliability of second trimester transvaginal ultrasound measurements of cervical length performed by specially trained midwife sonographers.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

This is a prospective reliability and agreement study performed in seven Swedish ultrasound centers. In total, 18 midwife sonographers specially trained to perform ultrasound measurements of cervical length and 286 women in the second trimester were included. In each center, two midwife sonographers measured cervical length a few minutes apart in the same woman, the number of women examined per examiner pair varying between 24 and 30 (LIVE study). Sixteen midwife sonographers measured cervical length twice ≥2 months apart on 93 video clips (CLIPS study). The main outcome measures were mean difference, limits of agreement, intraclass correlation coefficient, intra-individual standard deviation, repeatability, Cohen's kappa and Fleiss kappa.

RESULTS

The limits of agreement and intraclass correlation coefficient of the best examiner pair in the LIVE study were -4.06 to 4.72 mm and 0.91, and those of the poorest were -11.11 to 11.39 mm and 0.31. In the CLIPS study, median (range) intra-individual standard deviation was 2.14 mm (1.40-3.46), repeatability 5.93 mm (3.88-9.58), intraclass correlation coefficient 0.84 (0.66-0.94). Median (range) interobserver agreement for cervical length ≤25 mm in the CLIPS study was 94.6% (84.9%-98.9%) and Cohen's kappa 0.56 (0.12-0.92), median (range) intraobserver agreement was 95.2% (87.1%-98.9%) and Cohen's kappa 0.68 (0.27-0.93).

CONCLUSIONS

Agreement and reliability of cervical length measurements differed substantially between examiner pairs and examiners. If cervical length measurements are used to guide management there is potential for both over- and under-treatment. Uniform training and rigorous supervision and quality control are advised.

A comparative study on costs of cancer and access to medicines in Europe

e19051

Background: Cancer care is evolving rapidly, and costs and value of new treatments are often causing headlines without being discussed in a larger context. This study estimates the cost of cancer and access to medicines in Europe in 2018 and extends a previous analysis for 1995–2014. Methods: Cancer-specific health expenditure for 31 countries (EU-27 plus Iceland, Norway, Switzerland, and the UK) were derived from national estimates. Data on cancer drug sales were obtained from IQVIA. The productivity loss from premature mortality was estimated from data from Eurostat and the WHO. Estimates of the productivity loss from morbidity and informal care costs were based on previous studies. Results: The total cost of cancer was €199 billion in 2018. Total costs ranged from €160 per capita in Romania to €578 in Switzerland (after adjustment for price differentials). Health expenditure on cancer care was €103 billion, of which €32 billion was spent on cancer drugs. Informal care costs were €26 billion. The total productivity loss was €70 billion, composed of €50 billion from premature mortality and €20 billion from morbidity. Between 1995 and 2018, cancer incidence increased by 50 percent from 2.1 million to 3.1 million cases in Europe. Cancer mortality increased only by 20 percent. Health spending on cancer care doubled from €52 billion to €103 billion (in 2018 prices and exchange rates), whereas the share of cancer care on the total health expenditure remained stable at around 4 to 7 percent. A shift from treatment in inpatient care to ambulatory care has probably saved costs. Expenditure on cancer medicines more than tripled from €10 billion to €32 billion between 2005 and 2018 (excluding confidential rebates). Productivity loss from premature mortality decreased over time, linked to mortality reductions in working-age patients. Conclusions: There are large country differences in spending on cancer care and outcomes in Europe. Access to new cancer medicines is low or very low in certain parts of Europe. Inequalities are mainly related to countries’ economic strength and not to the disease burden of cancer.

Extreme Consumers of Health Care: Patterns of Care Utilization in Patients with Multiple Chronic Conditions Admitted to a Novel Integrated Clinic

PURPOSE

Patients with multiple chronic conditions (MCC) of diabetes, cardiovascular and kidney diseases; hereafter referred to as HND (heart/cardiac-, nephrology-, diabetes mellitus-) patients, are high utilizers of health care. However, the care received is often insufficiently coordinated between different specialties and health-care providers. This study aims to describe the characteristics of HND patients and to explore the initial effects of a multidisciplinary and person-centered care on total care utilization.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

We conducted a sub-study of HND patients recruited in an ongoing randomized trial CareHND (NCT03362983). Descriptive statistics of patient characteristics, including diagnostic data and Charlson Comorbidity Index scores, informed a comparison of care utilization patterns between HND patient care and traditional care. Diagnostic and care utilization data were collected from a regional database. Wilcoxon signed ranked sum tests were performed to compare care utilization frequencies between the two groups.

RESULTS

Patients included in the study were care-intensive with several diagnoses and experienced a high level of variation in care utilization and diagnoses profiles. HND patients were sicker than their counterparts in the control group. Utilization indicators were similar between the two arms. There was some indication that the HND center is beginning to perform as expected, but no results were statistically significant.

CONCLUSION

This study sits among many studies reporting difficulties obtaining statistically significant findings for MCC patients. However, previous research has shown that the key components of this intervention, such as integrated, multidisciplinary, inter-professional collaboration within patient-centered care have had a positive effect on health-care outcomes. More innovative methods beyond the RCT, such as machine learning should be explored to evaluate the impact of integrated care interventions on care utilization.

Calculation of decision threshold and detection limit in radiometric measurements using a Monte Carlo Method

Calculation of the decision threshold and detection limit of a measurement, or measurement method, are crucial in order to decide if an analyte is present or not and with what confidence it can be quantified. That decision is important in view of possible actions if something would be detected. In this work, a method for calculating these limits using a Monte Carlo method is presented. In the Monte Carlo method any a priori distribution (e.g. normal distribution, rectangular distribution, triangular distribution) of an input quantity can be selected. Differences between the Monte Carlo calculated characteristic limits and the ones calculated according to ISO 11929:2010 is presented. Moreover, suggestions how to calculate the detection limit when it can not be calculated according to the ISO 11929:2010 are given.

P1225Cost-effectiveness of evolocumab in patients with high atherosclerotic cardiovascular risk in Sweden

Background/Introduction

Elevated low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) is one of the most important modifiable risk factors for atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD). Evolocumab, a proprotein convertase subtilisin/kexin type 9 (PCSK9) inhibitor, is indicated for the reduction of CV risk by lowering LDL-C.

Purpose

Assess the cost-effectiveness of evolocumab added to standard of care (SoC), maximally tolerated lipid-lowering treatment, in two patient populations for which evolocumab is reimbursed in Sweden: (1) patients with ASCVD with LDL-C ≥2.5 mmol/L on SoC, and (2) heterozygous familial hypercholesterolemia (HeFH) patients without ASCVD with LDL-C ≥3.0 mmol/L on SoC.

Methods

A previously published Markov model was adapted to the Swedish context. The model incorporated real-world CV event (CVE) rates (myocardial infarction, ischemic stroke and CV death). In patients with ASCVD, a CVE rate of 6.3/100 patient-years was obtained from Swedish national registries. In HeFH patients without ASCVD, a CVE rate of 4.5/100 patient-years was obtained from a national screening program in the Netherlands. ASCVD patient characteristics were obtained from Swedish national registries. HeFH patient characteristics were obtained from the RUTHERFORD-2 clinical trial. The model used an evolocumab LDL-C reduction of 59%, as observed in the FOURIER CV outcomes clinical trial, and the relationship between LDL-C lowering and CVE reduction from the Cholesterol Treatment Trialists' Collaboration (CTTC) 2010 meta-analysis (base case) or FOURIER (scenario). An annual evolocumab list price (before discount) of SEK 48,759 [€ 4,632] (1 SEK = € 0.095) was considered. Costs and health outcomes were evaluated over a lifetime horizon from a societal perspective.

Results

In the base case, for patients with ASCVD with LDL-C ≥2.5 mmol/L on SoC, the addition of evolocumab was associated with: a 0.30 reduction in the lifetime per-patient CVE rate, increased costs of SEK 413,835 and increased quality-adjusted life years (QALY) of 0.67, yielding an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of SEK 615,393 [€ 58,462] per QALY gained. In the base case, for HeFH patients without ASCVD with LDL-C ≥3.0 mmol/L on SoC, the addition of evolocumab was associated with: a 0.57 reduction in the lifetime per-patient CVE rate, increased costs of SEK 701,200 and increased QALY of 1.39, yielding an ICER of SEK 503,710 [€ 47,852] per QALY gained. In the scenario analysis, ICER were SEK 539,846 [€ 51,285] and SEK 462,961 [€ 43,981] per QALY, respectively.

Conclusions

These results indicate the addition of evolocumab to SoC may be considered cost-effective in Sweden. Indeed, based on these data, the Swedish Dental and Pharmaceutical Benefits Agency (TLV) recently granted expanded reimbursement for evolocumab (submission 2138/2018), which led to a positive national recommendation in the patient populations described above.

Acknowledgement/Funding

This study was sponsored by Amgen.

Cost-effectiveness of Evolocumab Therapy for Reducing Cardiovascular Events in Patients With Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease

Importance

The proprotein convertase subtilisin/kexin type 9 inhibitor evolocumab has been demonstrated to reduce the composite of myocardial infarction, stroke, or cardiovascular death in patients with established atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease. To our knowledge, long-term cost-effectiveness of this therapy has not been evaluated using clinical trial efficacy data.

Objective

To evaluate the cost-effectiveness of evolocumab in patients with atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease when added to standard background therapy.

Design, Setting, and Participants

A Markov cohort state-transition model was used, integrating US population-specific demographics, risk factors, background therapy, and event rates along with trial-based event risk reduction. Costs, including price of drug, utilities, and transitional probabilities, were included from published sources.

Exposures

Addition of evolocumab to standard background therapy including statins.

Main Outcomes and Measures

Cardiovascular events including myocardial infarction, ischemic stroke and cardiovascular death, quality-adjusted life-year (QALY), incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER), and net value-based price.

Results

In the base case, using US clinical practice patients with atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease with low-density lipoprotein cholesterol levels of at least 70 mg/dL (to convert to millimoles per liter, multiply by 0.0259) and an annual events rate of 6.4 per 100 patient-years, evolocumab was associated with increased cost and improved QALY: incremental cost, $105 398; incremental QALY, 0.39, with an ICER of $268 637 per QALY gained ($165 689 with discounted price of $10 311 based on mean rebate of 29% for branded pharmaceuticals). Sensitivity and scenario analyses demonstrated ICERs ranging from $100 193 to $488 642 per QALY, with ICER of $413 579 per QALY for trial patient characteristics and event rate of 4.2 per 100 patient-years ($270 192 with discounted price of $10 311) and $483 800 if no cardiovascular mortality reduction emerges. Evolocumab treatment exceeded $150 000 per QALY in most scenarios but would meet this threshold at an annual net price of $9669 ($6780 for the trial participants) or with the discounted net price of $10 311 in patients with low-density lipoprotein cholesterol levels of at least 80 mg/dL.

Conclusions and Relevance

At its current list price of $14 523, the addition of evolocumab to standard background therapy in patients with atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease exceeds generally accepted cost-effectiveness thresholds. To achieve an ICER of $150 000 per QALY, the annual net price would need to be substantially lower ($9669 for US clinical practice and $6780 for trial participants), or a higher-risk population would need to be treated.