Longitudinal Metabolite Changes in Progressive Multiple Sclerosis: A Study of 3 Potential Neuroprotective Treatments

BACKGROUND

1H-magnetic resonance spectroscopy (1H-MRS) may provide a direct index for the testing of medicines for neuroprotection and drug mechanisms in multiple sclerosis (MS) through measures of total N-acetyl-aspartate (tNAA), total creatine (tCr), myo-inositol (mIns), total-choline (tCho), and glutamate + glutamine (Glx). Neurometabolites may be associated with clinical disability with evidence that baseline neuroaxonal integrity is associated with upper limb function and processing speed in secondary progressive MS (SPMS).

PURPOSE

To assess the effect on neurometabolites from three candidate drugs after 96-weeks as seen by 1H-MRS and their association with clinical disability in SPMS.

STUDY-TYPE

Longitudinal.

POPULATION

108 participants with SPMS randomized to receive neuroprotective drugs amiloride [mean age 55.4 (SD 7.4), 61% female], fluoxetine [55.6 (6.6), 71%], riluzole [54.6 (6.3), 68%], or placebo [54.8 (7.9), 67%].

FIELD STRENGTH/SEQUENCE

3-Tesla. Chemical-shift-imaging 2D-point-resolved-spectroscopy (PRESS), 3DT1.

ASSESSMENT

Brain metabolites in normal appearing white matter (NAWM) and gray matter (GM), brain volume, lesion load, nine-hole peg test (9HPT), and paced auditory serial addition test were measured at baseline and at 96-weeks.

STATISTICAL TESTS

Paired t-test was used to analyze metabolite changes in the placebo arm over 96-weeks. Metabolite differences between treatment arms and placebo; and associations between baseline metabolites and upper limb function/information processing speed at 96-weeks assessed using multiple linear regression models. P-value<0.05 was considered statistically significant.

RESULTS

In the placebo arm, tCho increased in GM (mean difference = -0.32 IU) but decreased in NAWM (mean difference = 0.13 IU). Compared to placebo, in the fluoxetine arm, mIns/tCr was lower (β = -0.21); in the riluzole arm, GM Glx (β = -0.25) and Glx/tCr (β = -0.29) were reduced. Baseline tNAA(β = 0.22) and tNAA/tCr (β = 0.23) in NAWM were associated with 9HPT scores at 96-weeks.

DATA CONCLUSION

1H-MRS demonstrated altered membrane turnover over 96-weeks in the placebo group. It also distinguished changes in neuro-metabolites related to gliosis and glutaminergic transmission, due to fluoxetine and riluzole, respectively. Data show tNAA is a potential marker for upper limb function.

LEVEL OF EVIDENCE

1 TECHNICAL EFFICACY: Stage 4.

Diagnosis of Acute Aortic Syndrome in the Emergency Department (DAShED) study: an observational cohort study of people attending the emergency department with symptoms consistent with acute aortic syndrome

BACKGROUND

The diagnosis of acute aortic syndrome (AAS) is commonly delayed or missed in the ED. We describe characteristics of ED attendances with symptoms potentially associated with AAS, diagnostic performance of clinical decision tools (CDTs) and physicians and yield of CT aorta angiogram (CTA).

METHODS

This was a multicentre observational cohort study of adults attending 27 UK EDs between 26 September 2022 and 30 November 2022, with potential AAS symptoms: chest, back or abdominal pain, syncope or symptoms related to malperfusion. Patients were preferably identified prospectively, but retrospective recruitment was also permitted. Anonymised, routinely collected patient data including components of CDTs, was abstracted. Clinicians treating prospectively identified patients were asked to record their perceived likelihood of AAS, prior to any confirmatory testing. Reference standard was radiological or operative confirmation of AAS. 30-day electronic patient record follow-up evaluated whether a subsequent diagnosis of AAS had been made and mortality.

RESULTS

5548 patients presented, with a median age of 55 years (IQR 37-72; n=5539). 14 (0.3%; n=5353) had confirmed AAS. 10/1046 (1.0%) patients in whom the ED clinician thought AAS was possible had AAS. 5/147 (3.4%) patients in whom AAS was considered the most likely diagnosis had AAS. 2/3319 (0.06%) patients in whom AAS was considered not possible did have AAS. 540 (10%; n=5446) patients underwent CT, of which 407 were CTA (7%). 30-day follow-up did not reveal any missed AAS diagnoses. AUROC (area under the receiver operating characteristic) curve for ED clinician AAS likelihood rating was 0.958 (95% CI 0.933 to 0.983, n=4006) and for individual CDTs were: Aortic Dissection Detection Risk Score (ADD-RS) 0.674 (95% CI 0.508 to 0.839, n=4989), AORTAs 0.689 (95% CI 0.527 to 0.852, n=5132), Canadian 0.818 (95% CI 0.686 to 0.951, n=5180) and Sheffield 0.628 (95% CI 0.467 to 0.788, n=5092).

CONCLUSION

Only 0.3% of patients presenting with potential AAS symptoms had AAS but 7% underwent CTA. CDTs incorporating clinician gestalt appear to be most promising, but further prospective work is needed, including evaluation of the role of D-dimer.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

NCT05582967; NCT05582967.

A mixed method evaluation of a theory based intervention to reduce sedentary behaviour in contact centres- the stand up for health stepped wedge feasibility study

INTRODUCTION

Contact centres have higher levels of sedentary behaviour than other office-based workplaces. Stand Up for Health (SUH) is a theory-based intervention developed using the 6SQuID framework to reduce sedentary behaviour in contact centre workers. The aim of this study was to test acceptability and feasibility of implementing SUH in UK contact centres.

METHODS

The study was conducted in 2020-2022 (pre COVID and during lockdown) and used a stepped-wedge cluster randomised trial design including a process evaluation. The intervention included working with contact centre managers to develop and implement a customised action plan aligning with SUH's theory of change. Workplace sedentary time, measured using activPAL™ devices, was the primary outcome. Secondary outcomes included productivity, mental wellbeing, musculoskeletal health and physical activity. Empirical estimates of between-centre standard deviation and within-centre standard deviation of outcomes from pre-lockdown data were calculated to inform sample size calculations for future trials. The process evaluation adopted the RE-AIM framework to understand acceptability and feasibility of implementing the intervention. Interviews and focus groups were conducted with contact centre employees and managers, and activity preferences were collected using a questionnaire.

RESULTS

A total of 11 contact centres participated: 155 employees from 6 centres in the pre-lockdown data collection, and 54 employees from 5 centres post-lockdown. Interviews and focus groups were conducted with 33 employees and managers, and 96 participants completed an intervention activity preference questionnaire. Overall, the intervention was perceived as acceptable and feasible to deliver. Most centres implemented several intervention activities aligned with SUH's theory of change and over 50% of staff participated in at least one activity (pre-lockdown period). Perceived benefits including reduced sedentary behaviour, increased physical activity, and improved staff morale and mood were reported by contact centre employees and managers.

CONCLUSIONS

SUH demonstrates potential as an appealing and acceptable intervention, impacting several wellbeing outcomes.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

The trial has been registered on the ISRCTNdatabase: http://www.isrctn.com/ISRCTN11580369.

AF and in-hospital mortality in COVID-19 patients

Background

There are conflicting data on whether new-onset atrial fibrillation (AF) is independently associated with poor outcomes in COVID-19 patients. This study represents the largest dataset curated by manual chart review comparing clinical outcomes between patients with sinus rhythm, pre-existing AF, and new-onset AF.

Objective

The primary aim of this study was to assess patient outcomes in COVID-19 patients with sinus rhythm, pre-existing AF, and new-onset AF. The secondary aim was to evaluate predictors of new-onset AF in patients with COVID-19 infection.

Methods

This was a single-center retrospective study of patients with a confirmed diagnosis of COVID-19 admitted between March and September 2020. Patient demographic data, medical history, and clinical outcome data were manually collected. Adjusted comparisons were performed following propensity score matching between those with pre-existing or new-onset AF and those without AF.

Results

The study population comprised of 1241 patients. A total of 94 (7.6%) patients had pre-existing AF and 42 (3.4%) patients developed new-onset AF. New-onset AF was associated with increased in-hospital mortality before (odds ratio [OR] 3.58, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.78-7.06, P < .005) and after (OR 2.80, 95% CI 1.01-7.77, P < .005) propensity score matching compared with the no-AF group. However, pre-existing AF was not independently associated with in-hospital mortality compared with patients with no AF (postmatching OR: 1.13, 95% CI 0.57-2.21, P = .732).

Conclusion

New-onset AF, but not pre-existing AF, was independently associated with elevated mortality in patients hospitalised with COVID-19. This observation highlights the need for careful monitoring of COVID-19 patients with new-onset AF. Further research is needed to explain the mechanistic relationship between new-onset AF and clinical outcomes in COVID-19 patients.

The unblinding of statisticians in clinical trials: commentary on Iflaifel et al., Trials 2023

Recently, the Blinding of Trial Statisticians research team, Iflaifel and colleagues, have produced detailed guidance regarding the blinding or unblinding of statisticians in clinical trials, based on substantial mixed-methods work. I wish to comment on the research findings. In particular, I argue that open-label trials, non-drug trials, or non-inferiority trials should not be treated any differently from blinded superiority trials with regards to the risk of bias assessment. Prevention of bias should be the priority for definitive randomised controlled trials, regardless of the precise study design.

The importance of clinical importance when determining the target difference in sample size calculations

Recently, it was argued that clinically important differences should play no role in sample size calculations. Instead, it was proposed that sample size calculations should focus on setting realistic estimates of treatment benefit. We disagree, and argue in this article that considering the importance of a target difference is necessary in the context of randomised controlled trials of effectiveness, particularly definitive phase III trials. Ignoring clinical importance could have serious ethical and practical consequences.

Asthma control and care among six public health clinic attenders in Malaysia: A cross-sectional study

Background and Aims

Asthma is common in Malaysia but neglected. Achieving optimal asthma control and care is a challenge in the primary care setting. In this study, we aimed to identify the risk factors for poor asthma control and pattern of care among adults and children (5-17 years old) with asthma attending six public health clinics in Klang District, Malaysia.

Methods

We conducted a cross-sectional study collecting patients' sociodemographic characteristics, asthma control, trigger factors, healthcare use, asthma treatment, and monitoring and use of asthma action plan. Descriptive statistics and stepwise logistic regression were used in data analysis.

Results

A total of 1280 patients were recruited; 85.3% adults and 14.7% children aged 5-17 years old. Only 34.1% of adults had well-controlled asthma, 36.5% had partly controlled asthma, and 29.4% had uncontrolled asthma. In children, 54.3% had well-controlled asthma, 31.9% had partly controlled, and 13.8% had uncontrolled asthma. More than half had experienced one or more exacerbations in the last 1 year, with a mean of six exacerbations in adults and three in children. Main triggers for poor control in adults were haze (odds ratio [OR] 1.51; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.13-2.01); cold food (OR 1.54; 95% CI 1.15-2.07), extreme emotion (OR 1.90; 95% CI 1.26-2.89); air-conditioning (OR 1.63; 95% CI 1.20-2.22); and physical activity (OR 2.85; 95% CI 2.13-3.82). In children, hot weather (OR 3.14; 95% CI 1.22-8.11), and allergic rhinitis (OR 2.57; 95% CI 1.13-5.82) contributed to poor control. The majority (81.7% of adults and 64.4% of children) were prescribed controller medications, but only 42.4% and 29.8% of the respective groups were compliant with the treatment. The importance of an asthma action plan was reported less emphasized in asthma education.

Conclusion

Asthma control remains suboptimal. Several triggers, compliance to controller medications, and asthma action plan use require attention during asthma reviews for better asthma outcomes.

Statistical analysis plan for the motor neuron disease systematic multi-arm adaptive randomised trial (MND-SMART)

BACKGROUND

MND-SMART is a platform, multi-arm, multi-stage, multi-centre, randomised controlled trial recruiting people with motor neuron disease. Initially, the treatments memantine and trazodone will each be compared against placebo, but other investigational treatments will be introduced into the trial later. The co-primary outcomes are the Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis Functional Rating Scale Revised (ALS-FRS-R) functional outcome, which is assessed longitudinally, and overall survival.

METHODS

Initially in MND-SMART, participants are randomised 1:1:1 via a minimisation algorithm to receive placebo or one of the two investigational treatments with up to 531 to be randomised in total. The comparisons between each research arm and placebo will be conducted in four stages, with the opportunity to cease further randomisations to poorly performing research arms at the end of stages 1 or 2. The final ALS-FRS-R analysis will be at the end of stage 3 and final survival analysis at the end of stage 4. The estimands for the co-primary outcomes are described in detail. The primary analysis of ALS-FRS-R at the end of stages 1 to 3 will involve fitting a normal linear mixed model to the data to calculate a mean difference in rate of ALS-FRS-R change between each research treatment and placebo. The pairwise type 1 error rate will be controlled, because each treatment comparison will generate its own distinct and separate interpretation. This publication is based on a formal statistical analysis plan document that was finalised and signed on 18 May 2022.

DISCUSSION

In developing the statistical analysis plan, we had to carefully consider several issues such as multiple testing, estimand specification, interim analyses, and statistical analysis of the repeated measurements of ALS-FRS-R. This analysis plan attempts to balance multiple factors, including minimisation of bias, maximising power and precision, and deriving clinically interpretable summaries of treatment effects.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

EudraCT Number, 2019-000099-41. Registered 2 October 2019, https://www.clinicaltrialsregister.eu/ctr-search/search?query=mnd-smart ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT04302870 . Registered 10 March 2020.

An Inhaled Galectin-3 Inhibitor in COVID-19 Pneumonitis: A Phase Ib/IIa Randomized Controlled Clinical Trial (DEFINE)

Rationale: High circulating galectin-3 is associated with poor outcomes in patients with coronavirus disease (COVID-19). We hypothesized that GB0139, a potent inhaled thiodigalactoside galectin-3 inhibitor with antiinflammatory and antifibrotic actions, would be safely and effectively delivered in COVID-19 pneumonitis. Objectives: Primary outcomes were safety and tolerability of inhaled GB0139 as an add-on therapy for patients hospitalized with COVID-19 pneumonitis. Methods: We present the findings of two arms of a phase Ib/IIa randomized controlled platform trial in hospitalized patients with confirmed COVID-19 pneumonitis. Patients received standard of care (SoC) or SoC plus 10 mg inhaled GB0139 twice daily for 48 hours, then once daily for up to 14 days or discharge. Measurements and Main Results: Data are reported from 41 patients, 20 of which were assigned randomly to receive GB0139. Primary outcomes: the GB0139 group experienced no treatment-related serious adverse events. Incidences of adverse events were similar between treatment arms (40 with GB0139 + SoC vs. 35 with SoC). Secondary outcomes: plasma GB0139 was measurable in all patients after inhaled exposure and demonstrated target engagement with decreased circulating galectin (overall treatment effect post-hoc analysis of covariance [ANCOVA] over days 2-7; P = 0.0099 vs. SoC). Plasma biomarkers associated with inflammation, fibrosis, coagulopathy, and major organ function were evaluated. Conclusions: In COVID-19 pneumonitis, inhaled GB0139 was well-tolerated and achieved clinically relevant plasma concentrations with target engagement. The data support larger clinical trials to determine clinical efficacy. Clinical trial registered with ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT04473053) and EudraCT (2020-002230-32).

Feasibility of supported self-management with a pictorial action plan to improve asthma control

Supported self-management reduces asthma-related morbidity and mortality. This paper is on a feasibility study, and observing the change in clinical and cost outcomes of pictorial action plan use is part of assessing feasibility as it will help us decide on outcome measures for a fully powered RCT. We conducted a pre-post feasibility study among adults with physician-diagnosed asthma on inhaled corticosteroids at a public primary-care clinic in Malaysia. We adapted an existing pictorial asthma action plan. The primary outcome was asthma control, assessed at 1, 3 and 6 months. Secondary outcomes included reliever use, controller medication adherence, asthma exacerbations, emergency visits, hospitalisations, days lost from work/daily activities and action plan use. We estimated potential cost savings on asthma-related care following plan use. About 84% (n = 59/70) completed the 6-months follow-up. The proportion achieving good asthma control increased from 18 (30.4%) at baseline to 38 (64.4%) at 6-month follow-up. The proportion of at least one acute exacerbation (3 months: % difference -19.7; 95% CI -34.7 to -3.1; 6 months: % difference -20.3; 95% CI -5.8 to -3.2), one or more emergency visit (1 month: % difference -28.6; 95% CI -41.2 to -15.5; 3 months: % difference -18.0; 95% CI -32.2 to -3.0; 6 months: % difference -20.3; 95% CI -34.9 to -4.6), and one or more asthma admission (1 month: % difference -14.3; 95% CI -25.2 to -5.3; 6 months: % difference -11.9; 95% CI -23.2 to -1.8) improved over time. Estimated savings for the 59 patients at 6-months follow-up and for each patient over the 6 months were RM 15,866.22 (USD3755.36) and RM268.92 (USD63.65), respectively. Supported self-management with a pictorial asthma action plan was associated with an improvement in asthma control and potential cost savings in Malaysian primary-care patients.Trial registration number: ISRCTN87128530; prospectively registered: September 5, 2019, http://www.isrctn.com/ISRCTN87128530 .

Divergent confidence intervals among pre-specified analyses in the HiSTORIC stepped wedge trial: An exploratory post-hoc investigation

BACKGROUND

The high-sensitivity cardiac troponin on presentation to rule out myocardial infarction (HiSTORIC) study was a stepped-wedge cluster randomised trial with long before-and-after periods, involving seven hospitals across Scotland. Results were divergent for the binary safety endpoint (type 1 or type 4b myocardial infarction or cardiac death) across certain pre-specified analyses, which warranted further investigation. In particular, the calendar-matched analysis produced an odds ratio in the opposite direction to the primary logistic mixed-effects model analysis.

METHODS

Several post-hoc statistical models were fitted to each of the co-primary outcomes of length of hospital stay and safety events, which included adjusting for exposure time, incorporating splines, and fitting a random time effect. We improved control of patient characteristics over time by adjusting for multiple additional covariates using different methods: direct inclusion, regression adjustment for propensity score, and weighting. A data augmentation approach was also conducted aiming to reduce the effect of sparse data bias. Finally, the raw data was examined.

RESULTS

The new statistical models confirmed the results of the pre-specified trial analysis. In particular, the observed divergence between the calendar-matched and other analyses remained, even after performing the covariate adjustment methods, and after using data augmentation. Divergence was particularly acute for the safety endpoint, which had an event rate of 0.36% overall. Examining the raw data was particularly helpful to assess the sensitivity of the results to small changes in event rates and identify patterns in the data.

CONCLUSIONS

Our experience reveals the importance of conducting multiple pre-specified sensitivity analyses and examining the raw data, particularly for stepped wedge trials with low event rates or with a small number of sites. Before-and-after analytical approaches that adjust for differences in patient populations but avoid direct modelling of the time trend should be considered in future stepped wedge trials with similar designs.

Efficacy of Fluoxetine, Riluzole and Amiloride in treating neuropathic pain associated with secondary progressive multiple sclerosis. Pre-specified analysis of the MS-SMART double-blind randomised placebo-controlled trial

BACKGROUND

Evidence-based treatment of pain in people with MS presents a major unmet need.

OBJECTIVE

We aimed to establish if use of Fluoxetine, Riluzole or Amiloride improved neuropathic pain outcomes in comparison to placebo, in adults with secondary progressive MS participating in a trial of these putative neuroprotectants.

METHODS

In pre-specified secondary analyses of the MS SMART phase-2b double-blind randomised controlled trial (NCT01910259), we analyzed reports of neuropathic pain, overall pain, and pain interference. Multivariate analyses included adjustment for baseline pain severity. Additionally, we explored associations of pain severity with clinical and MRI brain imaging variables.

RESULTS

445 Participants were recruited from 13 UK neuroscience centres. We found no statistically significant benefit of active intervention on any rating of neuropathic pain, or pain overall. Compared to placebo, adjusted mean difference in pain intensity was 0.38 (positive values favouring placebo, 95%CI -0.30 to 1.07, p = 0.27) for Amiloride; 0.52 (-0.17 to 1.22, p = 0.14) for Fluoxetine; and 0.40 (-0.30 to 1.10, p = 0.26) for Riluzole. Pain severity was positively correlated with depressive symptoms (Spearman correlation 0.19, 95%CI 0.10-0.28) and fatigue (Rho 0.30, 95%CI 0.20-0.39).

CONCLUSION

Use of Fluoxetine, Riluzole or Amiloride was not associated with improvement in neuropathic pain symptoms, in comparison to placebo.

Randomised controlled trial of intravenous nafamostat mesylate in COVID pneumonitis: Phase 1b/2a experimental study to investigate safety, Pharmacokinetics and Pharmacodynamics

BACKGROUND

Many repurposed drugs have progressed rapidly to Phase 2 and 3 trials in COVID19 without characterisation of Pharmacokinetics /Pharmacodynamics including safety data. One such drug is nafamostat mesylate.

METHODS

We present the findings of a phase Ib/IIa open label, platform randomised controlled trial of intravenous nafamostat in hospitalised patients with confirmed COVID-19 pneumonitis. Patients were assigned randomly to standard of care (SoC), nafamostat or an alternative therapy. Nafamostat was administered as an intravenous infusion at a dose of 0.2 mg/kg/h for a maximum of seven days. The analysis population included those who received any dose of the trial drug and all patients randomised to SoC. The primary outcomes of our trial were the safety and tolerability of intravenous nafamostat as an add on therapy for patients hospitalised with COVID-19 pneumonitis.

FINDINGS

Data is reported from 42 patients, 21 of which were randomly assigned to receive intravenous nafamostat. 86% of nafamostat-treated patients experienced at least one AE compared to 57% of the SoC group. The nafamostat group were significantly more likely to experience at least one AE (posterior mean odds ratio 5.17, 95% credible interval (CI) 1.10 - 26.05) and developed significantly higher plasma creatinine levels (posterior mean difference 10.57 micromol/L, 95% CI 2.43-18.92). An average longer hospital stay was observed in nafamostat patients, alongside a lower rate of oxygen free days (rate ratio 0.55-95% CI 0.31-0.99, respectively). There were no other statistically significant differences in endpoints between nafamostat and SoC. PK data demonstrated that intravenous nafamostat was rapidly broken down to inactive metabolites. We observed no significant anticoagulant effects in thromboelastometry.

INTERPRETATION

In hospitalised patients with COVID-19, we did not observe evidence of anti-inflammatory, anticoagulant or antiviral activity with intravenous nafamostat, and there were additional adverse events.

FUNDING

DEFINE was funded by LifeArc (an independent medical research charity) under the STOPCOVID award to the University of Edinburgh. We also thank the Oxford University COVID-19 Research Response Fund (BRD00230).

Multiple secondary outcome analyses: precise interpretation is important

Analysis of multiple secondary outcomes in a clinical trial leads to an increased probability of at least one false significant result among all secondary outcomes studied. In this paper, we question the notion that that if no multiplicity adjustment has been applied to multiple secondary outcome analyses in a clinical trial, then they must necessarily be regarded as exploratory. Instead, we argue that if individual secondary outcome results are interpreted carefully and precisely, there is no need to downgrade our interpretation to exploratory. This is because the probability of a false significant result for each comparison, the per-comparison wise error rate, does not increase with multiple testing. Strong effects on secondary outcomes should always be taken seriously and must not be dismissed purely on the basis of multiplicity concerns.

Clinical trials in amyotrophic lateral sclerosis: a systematic review and perspective

Amyotrophic lateral sclerosis is a progressive and devastating neurodegenerative disease. Despite decades of clinical trials, effective disease-modifying drugs remain scarce. To understand the challenges of trial design and delivery, we performed a systematic review of Phase II, Phase II/III and Phase III amyotrophic lateral sclerosis clinical drug trials on trial registries and PubMed between 2008 and 2019. We identified 125 trials, investigating 76 drugs and recruiting more than 15 000 people with amyotrophic lateral sclerosis. About 90% of trials used traditional fixed designs. The limitations in understanding of disease biology, outcome measures, resources and barriers to trial participation in a rapidly progressive, disabling and heterogenous disease hindered timely and definitive evaluation of drugs in two-arm trials. Innovative trial designs, especially adaptive platform trials may offer significant efficiency gains to this end. We propose a flexible and scalable multi-arm, multi-stage trial platform where opportunities to participate in a clinical trial can become the default for people with amyotrophic lateral sclerosis.

Robust and flexible inference for the covariate-specific receiver operating characteristic curve

Diagnostic tests are of critical importance in health care and medical research. Motivated by the impact that atypical and outlying test outcomes might have on the assessment of the discriminatory ability of a diagnostic test, we develop a robust and flexible model for conducting inference about the covariate-specific receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve that safeguards against outlying test results while also accommodating for possible nonlinear effects of the covariates. Specifically, we postulate a location-scale regression model for the test outcomes in both the diseased and nondiseased populations, combining additive regression B-splines and M-estimation for the regression function, while the distribution of the error term is estimated via a weighted empirical distribution function of the standardized residuals. The results of the simulation study show that our approach successfully recovers the true covariate-specific area under the ROC curve on a variety of conceivable test outcomes contamination scenarios. Our method is applied to a dataset derived from a prostate cancer study where we seek to assess the ability of the Prostate Health Index to discriminate between men with and without Gleason 7 or above prostate cancer, and if and how such discriminatory capacity changes with age.

Predictors for detecting chronic respiratory diseases in community surveys: A pilot cross-sectional survey in four South and South East Asian low- and middle-income countries

Background

Our previous scoping review revealed limitations and inconsistencies in population surveys of chronic respiratory disease. Informed by this review, we piloted a cross-sectional survey of adults in four South/South-East Asian low-and middle-income countries (LMICs) to assess survey feasibility and identify variables that predicted asthma or chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD).

Methods

We administered relevant translations of the BOLD-1 questionnaire with additional questions from ECRHS-II, performed spirometry and arranged specialist clinical review for a sub-group to confirm the diagnosis. Using random sampling, we piloted a community-based survey at five sites in four LMICs and noted any practical barriers to conducting the survey. Three clinicians independently used information from questionnaires, spirometry and specialist reviews, and reached consensus on a clinical diagnosis. We used lasso regression to identify variables that predicted the clinical diagnoses and attempted to develop an algorithm for detecting asthma and COPD.

Results

Of 508 participants, 55.9% reported one or more chronic respiratory symptoms. The prevalence of asthma was 16.3%; COPD 4.5%; and ‘other chronic respiratory disease’ 3.0%. Based on consensus categorisation (n = 483 complete records), “Wheezing in last 12 months” and “Waking up with a feeling of tightness” were the strongest predictors for asthma. For COPD, age and spirometry results were the strongest predictors. Practical challenges included logistics (participant recruitment; researcher safety); misinterpretation of questions due to local dialects; and assuring quality spirometry in the field.

Conclusion

Detecting asthma in population surveys relies on symptoms and history. In contrast, spirometry and age were the best predictors of COPD. Logistical, language and spirometry-related challenges need to be addressed.

High-Sensitivity Cardiac Troponin on Presentation to Rule Out Myocardial Infarction: A Stepped-Wedge Cluster Randomized Controlled Trial

BACKGROUND

High-sensitivity cardiac troponin assays enable myocardial infarction to be ruled out earlier, but the safety and efficacy of this approach is uncertain. We investigated whether an early rule-out pathway is safe and effective for patients with suspected acute coronary syndrome.

METHODS

We performed a stepped-wedge cluster randomized controlled trial in the emergency departments of 7 acute care hospitals in Scotland. Consecutive patients presenting with suspected acute coronary syndrome between December 2014 and December 2016 were included. Sites were randomized to implement an early rule-out pathway where myocardial infarction was excluded if high-sensitivity cardiac troponin I concentrations were <5 ng/L at presentation. During a previous validation phase, myocardial infarction was ruled out when troponin concentrations were <99th percentile at 6 to 12 hours after symptom onset. The coprimary outcome was length of stay (efficacy) and myocardial infarction or cardiac death after discharge at 30 days (safety). Patients were followed for 1 year to evaluate safety and other secondary outcomes.

RESULTS

We enrolled 31 492 patients (59±17 years of age [mean±SD]; 45% women) with troponin concentrations <99th percentile at presentation. Length of stay was reduced from 10.1±4.1 to 6.8±3.9 hours (adjusted geometric mean ratio, 0.78 [95% CI, 0.73-0.83]; P<0.001) after implementation and the proportion of patients discharged increased from 50% to 71% (adjusted odds ratio, 1.59 [95% CI, 1.45-1.75]). Noninferiority was not demonstrated for the 30-day safety outcome (upper limit of 1-sided 95% CI for adjusted risk difference, 0.70% [noninferiority margin 0.50%]; P=0.068), but the observed differences favored the early rule-out pathway (0.4% [57/14 700] versus 0.3% [56/16 792]). At 1 year, the safety outcome occurred in 2.7% (396/14 700) and 1.8% (307/16 792) of patients before and after implementation (adjusted odds ratio, 1.02 [95% CI, 0.74-1.40]; P=0.894), and there were no differences in hospital reattendance or all-cause mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

Implementation of an early rule-out pathway for myocardial infarction reduced length of stay and hospital admission. Although noninferiority for the safety outcome was not demonstrated at 30 days, there was no increase in cardiac events at 1 year. Adoption of this pathway would have major benefits for patients and health care providers. Registration: URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov; Unique identifier: NCT03005158.

Examining the effectiveness of telemonitoring with routinely acquired blood pressure data in primary care: challenges in the statistical analysis

Background

Scale-up BP was a quasi-experimental implementation study, following a successful randomised controlled trial of the roll-out of telemonitoring in primary care across Lothian, Scotland. Our primary objective was to assess the effect of telemonitoring on blood pressure (BP) control using routinely collected data. Telemonitored systolic and diastolic BP were compared with surgery BP measurements from patients not using telemonitoring (comparator patients). The statistical analysis and interpretation of findings was challenging due to the broad range of biases potentially influencing the results, including differences in the frequency of readings, ‘white coat effect’, end digit preference, and missing data.

Methods

Four different statistical methods were employed in order to minimise the impact of these biases on the comparison between telemonitoring and comparator groups. These methods were “standardisation with stratification”, “standardisation with matching”, “regression adjustment for propensity score” and “random coefficient modelling”. The first three methods standardised the groups so that all participants provided exactly two measurements at baseline and 6–12 months follow-up prior to analysis. The fourth analysis used linear mixed modelling based on all available data.

Results

The standardisation with stratification analysis showed a significantly lower systolic BP in telemonitoring patients at 6–12 months follow-up (-4.06, 95% CI -6.30 to -1.82, p < 0.001) for patients with systolic BP below 135 at baseline. For the standardisation with matching and regression adjustment for propensity score analyses, systolic BP was significantly lower overall (− 5.96, 95% CI -8.36 to − 3.55 , p < 0.001) and (− 3.73, 95% CI− 5.34 to − 2.13, p < 0.001) respectively, even after assuming that − 5 of the difference was due to ‘white coat effect’. For the random coefficient modelling, the improvement in systolic BP was estimated to be -3.37 (95% CI -5.41 to -1.33 , p < 0.001) after 1 year.

Conclusions

The four analyses provide additional evidence for the effectiveness of telemonitoring in controlling BP in routine primary care. The random coefficient analysis is particularly recommended due to its ability to utilise all available data. However, adjusting for the complex array of biases was difficult. Researchers should appreciate the potential for bias in implementation studies and seek to acquire a detailed understanding of the study context in order to design appropriate analytical approaches.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12874-021-01219-8.

NAA is a Marker of Disability in Secondary-Progressive MS: A Proton MR Spectroscopic Imaging Study

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE

The secondary progressive phase of multiple sclerosis is characterised by disability progression due to processes that lead to neurodegeneration. Surrogate markers such as those derived from MRI are beneficial in understanding the pathophysiology that drives disease progression and its relationship to clinical disability. We undertook a 1H-MRS imaging study in a large secondary progressive MS (SPMS) cohort, to examine whether metabolic markers of brain injury are associated with measures of disability, both physical and cognitive.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

A cross-sectional analysis of individuals with secondary-progressive MS was performed in 119 participants. They underwent ¹H-MR spectroscopy to obtain estimated concentrations and ratios to total Cr for total NAA, mIns, Glx, and total Cho in normal-appearing WM and GM. Clinical outcome measures chosen were the following: Paced Auditory Serial Addition Test, Symbol Digit Modalities Test, Nine-Hole Peg Test, Timed 25-foot Walk Test, and the Expanded Disability Status Scale. The relationship between these neurometabolites and clinical disability measures was initially examined using Spearman rank correlations. Significant associations were then further analyzed in multiple regression models adjusting for age, sex, disease duration, T2 lesion load, normalized brain volume, and occurrence of relapses in 2 years preceding study entry.

RESULTS

Significant associations, which were then confirmed by multiple linear regression, were found in normal-appearing WM for total NAA (tNAA)/total Cr (tCr) and the Nine-Hole Peg Test (ρ = 0.23; 95% CI, 0.06-0.40); tNAA and tNAA/tCr and the Paced Auditory Serial Addition Test (ρ = 0.21; 95% CI, 0.03-0.38) (ρ = 0.19; 95% CI, 0.01-0.36); mIns/tCr and the Paced Auditory Serial Addition Test, (ρ = -0.23; 95% CI, -0.39 to -0.05); and in GM for tCho and the Paced Auditory Serial Addition Test (ρ = -0.24; 95% CI, -0.40 to -0.06). No other GM or normal-appearing WM relationships were found with any metabolite, with associations found during initial correlation testing losing significance after multiple linear regression analysis.

CONCLUSIONS

This study suggests that metabolic markers of neuroaxonal integrity and astrogliosis in normal-appearing WM and membrane turnover in GM may act as markers of disability in secondary-progressive MS.

Design, rationale and analysis plan for the Stand Up for Health trial in contact centres: a stepped wedge feasibility study

Background

Contact centres are one of the most sedentary workplaces, with employees spending a very high proportion of their working day sitting down. About a quarter of contact centre staff regularly experience musculoskeletal health problems due to high levels of sedentary behaviour, including lower back pain. There have been no previous randomised studies specifically aiming to reduce sedentary behaviour in contact centre staff. To address this gap, the Stand Up for Health (SUH) study aims to test the feasibility and acceptability of a complex theory-based intervention to reduce sedentary behaviour in contact centres.

Methods

The Stand Up for Health study has a stepped wedge cluster randomised trial design, which is a pragmatic design whereby clusters (contact centres) are randomised to time points at which they will begin to receive the intervention. All contact centre staff have the opportunity to experience the intervention. To minimise the resource burden in this feasibility study, data collection is not continuous, but undertaken on a selective number of occasions, so the stepped wedge design is “incomplete”. Eleven contact centres in England and Scotland have been recruited, and the sample size is approximately 27 per centre (270 in total). The statistical analysis will predominantly focus on assessing feasibility, including the calculation of recruitment rates and rates of attrition. Exploratory analysis will be performed to compare objectively measured sedentary time in the workplace (measured using an activPAL™ device) between intervention and control conditions using a linear mixed effects regression model.

Discussion

To our knowledge, this is the first stepped wedge feasibility study conducted in call centres. The rationale and justification of our novel staircase stepped wedge design has been presented, and we hope that by presenting our study design and statistical analysis plan, it will contribute to the literature on stepped wedge trials, and in particular feasibility stepped wedge trials. The findings of the study will also help inform whether this is a suitable design for other settings where data collection is challenging.

Trial registration

The trial has been registered on the ISRCTN database: http://www.isrctn.com/ISRCTN11580369

Normal spirometry predictive values for the Western Indian adult population

Interpretation of spirometry involves comparing lung function parameters with predicted values to determine the presence/severity of the disease. The Global Lung Function Initiative (GLI) derived reference equations for healthy individuals aged 3-95 years from multiple populations but highlighted India as a "particular group" for whom further data are needed. We aimed to derive predictive equations for spirometry in a rural Western Indian adult population.We used spirometry data previously collected (2008-2012) from 1258 healthy adults (aged 18 years and over) by the Vadu Health and Demographic Surveillance System. We constructed sex-stratified prediction equations for forced expiratory volume in 1 s (FEV₁), forced vital capacity (FVC), and FEV₁/FVC using the Generalised Additive Model for Location, Scale and Shape (GAMLSS) method to derive the best fitting model of each outcome as a function of age and height.When compared with GLI Ethnicity Codes 1 (White Caucasian) and 5 (Other/Mixed), the Western Indian adult population appears to have lower lung volumes on average, though the FEV₁/FVC ratio is comparable. Both age and height were predictive of mean FEV₁ and FVC; and for females, the variability of response was also dependent on age. FEV₁/FVC appears to have a very strong age effect, highlighting the limitations of using a fixed 0.7 cut-off value.The use of GLI normal values may result in overdiagnosis of lung disease in this population. We recommend that the values and equations generated from this study should be used by physicians in their routine practice for diagnosing disease and its severity in adults from the Western Indian population.

Non-adjustment for multiple testing in multi-arm trials of distinct treatments: Rationale and justification

There is currently a lack of consensus and uncertainty about whether one should adjust for multiple testing in multi-arm trials of distinct treatments. A detailed rationale is presented to justify non-adjustment in this situation. We argue that non-adjustment should be the default starting position in simple multi-arm trials of distinct treatments.

Using multiple agreement methods for continuous repeated measures data: a tutorial for practitioners

Background

Studies of agreement examine the distance between readings made by different devices or observers measuring the same quantity. If the values generated by each device are close together most of the time then we conclude that the devices agree. Several different agreement methods have been described in the literature, in the linear mixed modelling framework, for use when there are time-matched repeated measurements within subjects.

Methods

We provide a tutorial to help guide practitioners when choosing among different methods of assessing agreement based on a linear mixed model assumption. We illustrate the use of five methods in a head-to-head comparison using real data from a study involving Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) patients and matched repeated respiratory rate observations. The methods used were the concordance correlation coefficient, limits of agreement, total deviation index, coverage probability, and coefficient of individual agreement.

Results

The five methods generated similar conclusions about the agreement between devices in the COPD example; however, some methods emphasized different aspects of the between-device comparison, and the interpretation was clearer for some methods compared to others.

Conclusions

Five different methods used to assess agreement have been compared in the same setting to facilitate understanding and encourage the use of multiple agreement methods in practice. Although there are similarities between the methods, each method has its own strengths and weaknesses which are important for researchers to be aware of. We suggest that researchers consider using the coverage probability method alongside a graphical display of the raw data in method comparison studies. In the case of disagreement between devices, it is important to look beyond the overall summary agreement indices and consider the underlying causes. Summarising the data graphically and examining model parameters can both help with this.

Bayesian methods in palliative care research: cancer-induced bone pain

OBJECTIVE

To show how a simple Bayesian analysis method can be used to improve the evidence base in patient populations where recruitment and retention are challenging.

METHODS

A Bayesian conjugate analysis method was applied to binary data from the Thermal testing in Bone Pain (TiBoP) study: a prospective diagnostic accuracy/predictive study in patients with cancer-induced bone pain (CIBP). This study aimed to evaluate the clinical utility of a simple bedside tool to identify who was most likely to benefit from palliative radiotherapy (XRT) for CIBP.

RESULTS

Recruitment and retention of patients were challenging due to the frail population, with only 27 patients available for the primary analysis. The Bayesian method allowed us to make use of prior work done in this area and combine it with the TiBoP data to maximise the informativeness of the results. Positive and negative predictive values were estimated with greater precision, and interpretation of results was facilitated by use of direct probability statements. In particular, there was only 7% probability that the true positive predictive value was above 80%.

CONCLUSIONS

Several advantages of using Bayesian analysis are illustrated in this article. The Bayesian method allowed us to gain greater confidence in our interpretation of the results despite the small sample size by allowing us to incorporate data from a previous similar study. We suggest that this method is likely to be useful for the analysis of small diagnostic or predictive studies when prior information is available.

Bayesian methods in palliative care research: cancer-induced bone pain

OBJECTIVE

To show how a simple Bayesian analysis method can be used to improve the evidence base in patient populations where recruitment and retention are challenging.

METHODS

A Bayesian conjugate analysis method was applied to binary data from the Thermal testing in Bone Pain (TiBoP) study: a prospective diagnostic accuracy/predictive study in patients with cancer-induced bone pain (CIBP). This study aimed to evaluate the clinical utility of a simple bedside tool to identify who was most likely to benefit from palliative radiotherapy (XRT) for CIBP.

RESULTS

Recruitment and retention of patients were challenging due to the frail population, with only 27 patients available for the primary analysis. The Bayesian method allowed us to make use of prior work done in this area and combine it with the TiBoP data to maximise the informativeness of the results. Positive and negative predictive values were estimated with greater precision, and interpretation of results was facilitated by use of direct probability statements. In particular, there was only 7% probability that the true positive predictive value was above 80%.

CONCLUSIONS

Several advantages of using Bayesian analysis are illustrated in this article. The Bayesian method allowed us to gain greater confidence in our interpretation of the results despite the small sample size by allowing us to incorporate data from a previous similar study. We suggest that this method is likely to be useful for the analysis of small diagnostic or predictive studies when prior information is available.

Chondromalacia of the cranial medial femoral condyle; its occurrence and association with clinical outcome in a population of adult horses with stifle lameness

BACKGROUND

Chondromalacia of the cranial medial femoral condyle (CMFC) is a potential cause of stifle lameness in adult horses. However, there is scant published evidence of either its occurrence or its clinical significance.

OBJECTIVES

To document the occurrence of CMFC seen during diagnostic arthroscopy in adult horses with stifle lameness and to investigate its prognostic significance.

STUDY DESIGN

Retrospective cohort study.

METHODS

The records were reviewed of all horses with unilateral or bilateral lameness localised to the stifle that underwent diagnostic arthroscopy of the cranial medial femorotibial joint at a UK equine hospital. The surgical findings were noted from each. Case outcomes were determined by unstructured telephone discussions with owners. A satisfactory outcome was defined as a horse that was in ridden work without ongoing anti-inflammatory medication. Multivariable logistic regression was used to create a model with an outcome time point at 12-month post-operatively.

RESULTS

One hundred and four horses were included in the study. CMFC was found in 79. In 25 CMFC was the only finding, 54 horses had CMFC plus other pathology and 25 had other pathology, but no CMFC. At 12 months, horses with CMFC were 9.9 (95% CI 2.2-45.0, P<0.01) times more likely to have an unsatisfactory outcome than horses without CMFC.

MAIN LIMITATIONS

The study relied on retrospective analysis of clinical notes and archived arthroscopy videos. Assessment of outcome was determined by unstructured telephone interview and therefore there is potential for reporting errors to exist.

CONCLUSIONS

CMFC is a common arthroscopic finding in horses with stifle lameness and is significantly associated with an increased likelihood of the horse not being in ridden work at long-term follow-up.

The Life-Space Assessment Measure of Functional Mobility Has Utility in Community-Based Physical Therapist Practice in the United Kingdom

BACKGROUND

The Life-Space Assessment (LSA) has demonstrable validity and reliability among people sampled from nonclinical settings. Its properties in clinical settings, especially physical therapy services, are less well established.

OBJECTIVE

The aim of this study was to test the construct/convergent validity, responsiveness, and floor/ceiling effects of the LSA among patients who had musculoskeletal, orthopedic, neurological, or general surgical presentations and were receiving individually tailored, community-based physical therapist interventions to address gait/balance impairments in an urban location in the United Kingdom.

DESIGN

A prospective, repeated-measures, comparative cohort design was used.

METHODS

Two hundred seventy-six community-dwelling, newly referred patients were recruited from three cohorts (outpatients; domiciliary, nonhospitalized; and domiciliary, recent hospital discharge). Data were collected from the LSA and the Performance-Oriented Mobility Assessment (POMA1) at initial assessment and discharge. Two hundred twenty-eight participants were retained at follow-up.

RESULTS

The median age was 80.5 years, 73.6% were women, and the median number of physical therapist contacts over 53 days was five. LSA scores at assessment and changes over treatment distinguished between cohorts, even after adjustment for covariates. Weak correlations (0.14-0.41) were found between LSA and POMA1 scores. No LSA floor/ceiling effects were found. Significant improvements in the LSA score after the intervention were found for each cohort and for the sample overall. For the whole sample, the mean change in the LSA score was 10.5 points (95% CI = 8.3-12.8).

LIMITATIONS

The environmental demands participants faced were not measured. Caregivers answered the LSA questions on behalf of participants when necessary. Assessors were not always masked with regard to the measurement point.

CONCLUSIONS

The LSA has utility as an outcome measure in routine community-based physical therapist practice. It has satisfactory construct validity and is sensitive to change over a short time frame. The LSA is not a substitute for the POMA1; these measures complement each other, with the LSA bringing the added value of measuring real-life functional mobility.

Molecular Coronary Plaque Imaging Using 18F-Fluoride

BACKGROUND

Coronary 18F-fluoride positron emission tomography identifies ruptured and high-risk atherosclerotic plaque. The optimal method to identify, to quantify, and to categorize increased coronary 18F-fluoride uptake and determine its reproducibility has yet to be established. This study aimed to optimize the identification, quantification, categorization, and scan-rescan reproducibility of increased 18F-fluoride activity in coronary atherosclerotic plaque.

METHODS

In a prospective observational study, patients with multi-vessel coronary artery disease underwent serial 18F-fluoride positron emission tomography. Coronary 18F-fluoride activity was visually assessed, quantified, and categorized with reference to maximal tissue to background ratios. Levels of agreement for both visual and quantitative methods were determined between scans and observers.

RESULTS

Thirty patients (90% male, 20 patients with stable coronary artery disease, and 10 with recent type 1 myocardial infarction) underwent paired serial positron emission tomography-coronary computed tomography angiography imaging within an interval of 12±5 days. A mean of 3.7±1.8 18F-fluoride positive plaques per patient was identified after recent acute coronary syndrome, compared with 2.4±2.3 positive plaques per patient in stable coronary artery disease. The bias in agreement in maximum tissue to background ratio measurements in visually positive plaques was low between observers (mean difference, -0.01; 95% limits of agreement, -0.32 to 0.30) or between scans (mean difference, 0.06; 95% limits of agreement, -0.49 to 0.61). Good agreement in the categorization of focal 18F-fluoride uptake was achieved using visual assessment alone (κ=0.66) and further improved at higher maximum tissue to background ratio values.

CONCLUSIONS

Coronary 18F-fluoride activity is a precise and reproducible metric in the coronary vasculature. The analytical performance of 18F-fluoride is sufficient to assess the prognostic utility of this radiotracer as a noninvasive imaging biomarker of plaque vulnerability.

CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION

URL: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifiers: NCT02110303 and NCT02278211.

High-sensitivity troponin in the evaluation of patients with suspected acute coronary syndrome: a stepped-wedge, cluster-randomised controlled trial

BACKGROUND

High-sensitivity cardiac troponin assays permit use of lower thresholds for the diagnosis of myocardial infarction, but whether this improves clinical outcomes is unknown. We aimed to determine whether the introduction of a high-sensitivity cardiac troponin I (hs-cTnI) assay with a sex-specific 99th centile diagnostic threshold would reduce subsequent myocardial infarction or cardiovascular death in patients with suspected acute coronary syndrome.

METHODS

In this stepped-wedge, cluster-randomised controlled trial across ten secondary or tertiary care hospitals in Scotland, we evaluated the implementation of an hs-cTnI assay in consecutive patients who had been admitted to the hospitals' emergency departments with suspected acute coronary syndrome. Patients were eligible for inclusion if they presented with suspected acute coronary syndrome and had paired cardiac troponin measurements from the standard care and trial assays. During a validation phase of 6-12 months, results from the hs-cTnI assay were concealed from the attending clinician, and a contemporary cardiac troponin I (cTnI) assay was used to guide care. Hospitals were randomly allocated to early (n=5 hospitals) or late (n=5 hospitals) implementation, in which the high-sensitivity assay and sex-specific 99th centile diagnostic threshold was introduced immediately after the 6-month validation phase or was deferred for a further 6 months. Patients reclassified by the high-sensitivity assay were defined as those with an increased hs-cTnI concentration in whom cTnI concentrations were below the diagnostic threshold on the contemporary assay. The primary outcome was subsequent myocardial infarction or death from cardiovascular causes at 1 year after initial presentation. Outcomes were compared in patients reclassified by the high-sensitivity assay before and after its implementation by use of an adjusted generalised linear mixed model. This trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT01852123.

FINDINGS

Between June 10, 2013, and March 3, 2016, we enrolled 48 282 consecutive patients (61 [SD 17] years, 47% women) of whom 10 360 (21%) patients had cTnI concentrations greater than those of the 99th centile of the normal range of values, who were identified by the contemporary assay or the high-sensitivity assay. The high-sensitivity assay reclassified 1771 (17%) of 10 360 patients with myocardial injury or infarction who were not identified by the contemporary assay. In those reclassified, subsequent myocardial infarction or cardiovascular death within 1 year occurred in 105 (15%) of 720 patients in the validation phase and 131 (12%) of 1051 patients in the implementation phase (adjusted odds ratio for implementation vs validation phase 1·10, 95% CI 0·75 to 1·61; p=0·620).

INTERPRETATION

Use of a high-sensitivity assay prompted reclassification of 1771 (17%) of 10 360 patients with myocardial injury or infarction, but was not associated with a lower subsequent incidence of myocardial infarction or cardiovascular death at 1 year. Our findings question whether the diagnostic threshold for myocardial infarction should be based on the 99th centile derived from a normal reference population.

FUNDING

The British Heart Foundation.

A practical guide to pre-trial simulations for Bayesian adaptive trials using SAS and BUGS

It is often unclear what specific adaptive trial design features lead to an efficient design which is also feasible to implement. Before deciding on a particular design, it is generally advisable to carry out a simulation study to characterise the properties of candidate designs under a range of plausible assumptions. The implementation of such pre‐trial simulation studies presents many challenges and requires considerable statistical programming effort and time. Despite the scale and complexity, there is little existing literature to guide the implementation of such projects using commonly available software. This Teacher's Corner article provides a practical step‐by‐step guide to implementing such simulation studies including how to specify and fit a Bayesian model in WinBUGS or OpenBUGS using SAS, and how results from the Bayesian analysis may be pulled back into SAS and used for adaptation of allocation probabilities before simulating subsequent stages of the trial. The interface between the two software platforms is described in detail along with useful tips and tricks. A key strength of our approach is that the entire exercise can be defined and controlled from within a single SAS program.

Multiple Sclerosis-Secondary Progressive Multi-Arm Randomisation Trial (MS-SMART): a multiarm phase IIb randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled clinical trial comparing the efficacy of three neuroprotective drugs in secondary progressive multiple sclerosis

INTRODUCTION

The major unmet need in multiple sclerosis (MS) is for neuroprotective therapies that can slow (or ideally stop) the rate of disease progression. The UK MS Society Clinical Trials Network (CTN) was initiated in 2007 with the purpose of developing a national, efficient, multiarm trial of repurposed drugs. Key underpinning work was commissioned by the CTN to inform the design, outcome selection and drug choice including animal models and a systematic review. This identified seven leading oral agents for repurposing as neuroprotective therapies in secondary progressive MS (SPMS). The purpose of the Multiple Sclerosis-Secondary Progressive Multi-Arm Randomisation Trial (MS-SMART) will be to evaluate the neuroprotective efficacy of three of these drugs, selected with distinct mechanistic actions and previous evidence of likely efficacy, against a common placebo arm. The interventions chosen were: amiloride (acid-sensing ion channel antagonist); fluoxetine (selective serotonin reuptake inhibitor) and riluzole (glutamate antagonist).

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

Patients with progressing SPMS will be randomised 1:1:1:1 to amiloride, fluoxetine, riluzole or matched placebo and followed for 96 weeks. The primary outcome will be the percentage brain volume change (PBVC) between baseline and 96 weeks, derived from structural MR brain imaging data using the Structural Image Evaluation, using Normalisation, of Atrophy method. With a sample size of 90 per arm, this will give 90% power to detect a 40% reduction in PBVC in any active arm compared with placebo and 80% power to detect a 35% reduction (analysing by analysis of covariance and with adjustment for multiple comparisons of three 1.67% two-sided tests), giving a 5% overall two-sided significance level. MS-SMART is not powered to detect differences between the three active treatment arms. Allowing for a 20% dropout rate, 110 patients per arm will be randomised. The study will take place at Neuroscience centres in England and Scotland.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

MS-SMART was approved by the Scotland A Research Ethics Committee on 13 January 2013 (REC reference: 13/SS/0007). Results of the study will be submitted for publication in a peer-reviewed journal.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBERS

NCT01910259; 2012-005394-31; ISRCTN28440672.

The effect of age on fitness among female firefighters

Background

The physical demands of firefighting require both cardiovascular and muscular fitness, which both decline with age. While much has been published on age-related changes among male firefighters (FFs), data on female FFs are lacking.

Aims

To describe cardiorespiratory fitness (CRF) and muscular fitness in a sample of female career FFs ranging in age from 25 to 60 years and determine whether ageing affects their achievement of the current recommended professional CRF standards of 12 metabolic equivalents (METs).

Methods

Data were collected on female FFs over an 11-year period. A cross-sectional analysis using one-way analysis of variance with Bonferroni post hoc comparisons was used to compare age groups.

Results

There were 96 study participants. Maximum METs was significantly higher (P < 0.01) in the 25- to 34-year age group (14.6 ± 2.1) compared with the 35-44 age group (12.9 ± 2.0 METs) and the 45-54 age group (12.2 ± 1.8 METs, P < 0.001). While the mean values of all measured age groups met or exceeded the 12-MET profession standard, as many as one-third of FFs <45 years of age and 43% of FFs >45 years of age fell below the benchmark of 12 METs. Muscular fitness as measured by maximum number of push-ups, sit-ups and back endurance was not significantly different between age groups.

Conclusions

Fire departments should recognize and take steps to ensure all female FFs maintain CRF and muscular fitness throughout their careers.

Gadofosveset-enhanced thoracic MR venography: a comparative study evaluating steady state imaging versus conventional first-pass time-resolved dynamic imaging

Background Dedicated blood-pool contrast agents combined with optimal angiographic protocols could improve the diagnostic accuracy of thoracic magnetic resonance angiography (MRA). Purpose To assess the clinical utility of Gadofesveset-enhanced imaging and compare an optimized steady-state (SS) sequence against conventional first-pass dynamic multi-phase (DMP) imaging. Material and Methods Twenty-nine patients (17 men, 12 women; mean age = 42.7, age range = 18-72 years) referred for MR thoracic venography were recruited. Imaging was performed on a 1.5T MRI system. A blood-pool contrast agent (Gadofesveset) was administered intravenously. Thirty temporal phases were acquired using DMP. This was immediately followed by a high-resolution SS sequence. Three radiologists in consensus reviewed seven thoracic vascular segments after randomizing the acquisition order. Image quality, stenoses, thromboses, and artifacts were graded using a categorical scoring system. The image quality for both approaches was compared using Wilcoxon's signed-rank test. McNemar's test was used to compare the proportions of stenosis grades, thrombus and artifacts. Results SS had significantly better image quality than DMP (3.14 ± 0.73 and 2.92 ± 0.60, respectively; P < 0.001). SS identified fewer stenoses (>50%) than DMP; the differences in stenosis categorizations was statistically significant ( P = 0.013). There was no significant difference in the proportions of vessels with thromboses ( P = 0.617). DMP produced more artifacts than SS (101 versus 85); however, the difference was not statistically significant ( P = 0.073). Conclusion Gadofesveset-enhanced thoracic angiography is clinically feasible. SS imaging produces better image quality and fewer artifacts than conventional DMP imaging.

Are self-reported telemonitored blood pressure readings affected by end-digit preference: a prospective cohort study in Scotland

OBJECTIVE

Simple forms of blood pressure (BP) telemonitoring require patients to text readings to central servers creating an opportunity for both entry error and manipulation. We wished to determine if there was an apparent preference for particular end digits and entries which were just below target BPs which might suggest evidence of data manipulation.

DESIGN

Prospective cohort study SETTING: 37 socioeconomically diverse primary care practices from South East Scotland.

PARTICIPANTS

Patients were recruited with hypertension to a telemonitoring service in which patients submitted home BP readings by manually transcribing the measurements into text messages for transmission ('patient-texted system'). These readings were compared with those from primary care patients with uncontrolled hypertension using a system in which readings were automatically transmitted, eliminating the possibility of manipulation of values ('automatic-transmission system').

METHODS

A generalised estimating equations method was used to compare BP readings between the patient-texted and automatic-transmission systems, while taking into account clustering of readings within patients.

RESULTS

A total of 44 150 BP readings were analysed on 1068 patients using the patient-texted system compared with 20 705 readings on 199 patients using the automatic-transmission system. Compared with the automatic-transmission data, the patient-texted data showed a significantly higher proportion of occurrences of both systolic and diastolic BP having a zero end digit (OR 2.1, 95% CI 1.7 to 2.6) although incidence was <2% of readings. Similarly, there was a preference for systolic 134 and diastolic 84 (the threshold for alerts was 135/85) (134 systolic BP OR 1.5, 95% CI 1.3 to 1.8; 84 diastolic BP OR 1.5, 95% CI 1.3 to 1.9).

CONCLUSION

End-digit preference for zero numbers and specific-value preference for readings just below the alert threshold exist among patients in self-reporting their BP using telemonitoring. However, the proportion of readings affected is small and unlikely to be clinically important.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

ISRCTN72614272; Post-results.

Promoting Recruitment using Information Management Efficiently (PRIME): a stepped-wedge, cluster randomised trial of a complex recruitment intervention embedded within the REstart or Stop Antithrombotics Randomised Trial

Background

Few interventions are proven to increase recruitment in clinical trials. Recruitment to RESTART, a randomised controlled trial of secondary prevention after stroke due to intracerebral haemorrhage, has been slower than expected. Therefore, we sought to investigate an intervention to boost recruitment to RESTART.

Methods/design

We conducted a stepped-wedge, cluster randomised trial of a complex intervention to increase recruitment, embedded within the RESTART trial. The primary objective was to investigate if the PRIME complex intervention (a recruitment co-ordinator who conducts a recruitment review, provides access to bespoke stroke audit data exports, and conducts a follow-up review after 6 months) increases the recruitment rate to RESTART. We included 72 hospital sites located in England, Wales, or Scotland that were active in RESTART in June 2015. All sites began in the control state and were allocated using block randomisation stratified by hospital location (Scotland versus England/Wales) to start the complex intervention in one of 12 different months. The primary outcome was the number of patients randomised into RESTART per month per site. We quantified the effect of the complex intervention on the primary outcome using a negative binomial, mixed model adjusting for site, December/January months, site location, and background time trends in recruitment rate.

Results

We recruited and randomised 72 sites and recorded their monthly recruitment to RESTART over 24 months (March 2015 to February 2017 inclusive), providing 1728 site-months of observations for the primary analysis. The adjusted rate ratio for the number of patients randomised per month after allocation to the PRIME complex intervention versus control time before allocation to the PRIME complex intervention was 1.06 (95% confidence interval 0.55 to 2.03, p = 0.87). Although two thirds of respondents to the 6-month follow-up questionnaire agreed that the audit reports were useful, only six patients were reported to have been randomised using the audit reports. Respondents frequently reported resource and time pressures as being key barriers to running the audit reports.

Conclusion

The PRIME complex intervention did not significantly improve the recruitment rate to RESTART. Further research is needed to establish if PRIME might be beneficial at an earlier stage in a prevention trial or for prevention dilemmas that arise more often in clinical practice.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s13063-017-2355-z) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

The Test Your Memory for Mild Cognitive Impairment (TYM-MCI)

BACKGROUND

To validate a short cognitive test: the Test Your Memory for Mild Cognitive Impairment (TYM-MCI) in the diagnosis of patients with amnestic mild cognitive impairment or mild Alzheimer's disease (aMCI/AD).

METHODS

Two hundred and two patients with mild memory problems were recruited. All had 'passed' the Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE). Patients completed the TYM-MCI, the Test Your Memory test (TYM), MMSE and revised Addenbrooke's Cognitive Examination (ACE-R), had a neurological examination, clinical diagnostics and multidisciplinary team review.

RESULTS

As a single test, the TYM-MCI performed as well as the ACE-R in the distinction of patients with aMCI/AD from patients with subjective memory impairment with a sensitivity of 0.79 and specificity of 0.91. Used in combination with the ACE-R, it provided additional value and identified almost all cases of aMCI/AD. The TYM-MCI correctly classified most patients who had equivocal ACE-R scores. Integrated discriminant improvement analysis showed that the TYM-MCI added value to the conventional memory assessment. Patients initially diagnosed as unknown or with subjective memory impairment who were later rediagnosed with aMCI/AD scored poorly on their original TYM-MCI.

CONCLUSION

The TYM-MCI is a powerful short cognitive test that examines verbal and visual recall and is a valuable addition to the assessment of patients with aMCI/AD. It is simple and cheap to administer and requires minimal staff time and training.

The role of prostatic urethral biopsies as a staging tool for bladder cancer

Objective:

To determine the incidence of prostatic urethral involvement in our patient population and how prostatic urethral biopsy correlates with final cystectomy pathology.

Patients and methods:

We conducted a retrospective review of prostatic urethral biopsies (PUB) performed between February 2008 and April 2012 in a single centre. PUB pathology was correlated with cystectomy pathology.

Results:

PUB was undergone by 172 patients with a median age of 70 years (range: 37–84 years): There were 35 (20%) patients having a positive PUB and 137 (80%) who were negative. Of the 94 patients who underwent cystectomy, we found that when the entire prostatic urethra was sectioned, 20 (21%) patients had cancer in the prostatic urethra. Cancer was found in 17 (77%) of 22 patients with a positive PUB and in three (4%) out of the 72 with a negative PUB (positive predictive value (PPV) 77%, negative predictive value (NPV) 96%, sensitivity 85% and specificity 93%). In all 94 patients, the prostatic apical margin was negative.

Conclusion:

Disease in the prostatic urethra affected 20% of patients, consistent with published data. Prostatic urethral apical margins were all negative. Intra-operative frozen section would have missed cancer in the 20 patients with prostatic urethral cancer, whereas PUB identified 17 (85%) of the 20 patients. These data confirm the value of using PUB before cystectomy, in our UK population.

Home monitoring of breathing rate in people with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease: observational study of feasibility, acceptability, and change after exacerbation

Telehealth programs to promote early identification and timely self-management of acute exacerbations of chronic obstructive pulmonary diseases (AECOPDs) have yielded disappointing results, in part, because parameters monitored (symptoms, pulse oximetry, and spirometry) are weak predictors of exacerbations.

Promoting Recruitment using Information Management Efficiently (PRIME): study protocol for a stepped-wedge cluster randomised controlled trial within the REstart or STop Antithrombotics Randomised Trial (RESTART)

Background

Research into methods to boost recruitment has been identified as the highest priority for randomised controlled trial (RCT) methodological research in the United Kingdom. Slow recruitment delays the delivery of research and inflates costs. Using electronic patient records has been shown to boost recruitment to ongoing RCTs in primary care by identifying potentially eligible participants, but this approach remains relatively unexplored in secondary care, and for stroke in particular.

Methods/design

The REstart or STop Antithrombotics Randomised Trial (RESTART; ISRCTN71907627) is an ongoing RCT of secondary prevention after stroke due to intracerebral haemorrhage. Promoting Recruitment using Information Management Efficiently (PRIME) is a stepped-wedge cluster randomised trial of a complex intervention to help RESTART sites increase their recruitment and attain their own target numbers of participants. Seventy-two hospital sites that were located in England, Wales or Scotland and were active in RESTART in June 2015 opted into PRIME. Sites were randomly allocated (using a computer-generated block randomisation algorithm, stratified by hospital location in Scotland vs. England/Wales) to one of 12 months in which the intervention would be delivered. All sites began in the control state. The intervention was delivered by a recruitment co-ordinator via a teleconference with each site. The intervention involved discussing recruitment strategies, providing software for each site to extract from their own stroke audit data lists of patients who were potentially eligible for RESTART, and a second teleconference to review progress 6 months later. The recruitment co-ordinator was blinded to the timing of the intervention until 2 months before it was due at a site. Staff at RESTART sites were blinded to the nature and timing of the intervention. The primary outcome is the total number of patients randomised into RESTART per month per site and will be analysed in a negative binomial generalised linear mixed model. PRIME began in September 2015. The last intervention was delivered in August 2016. Six-month follow-up will be complete in February 2017.

Discussion

The final results of PRIME will be analysed and disseminated in 2017.

Trial registration

The PRIME study was registered in the Northern Ireland Hub for Trials Methodology Research Studies Within a Trial (SWAT) repository (SWAT22) on 23 December 2015.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s13063-016-1692-7) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Promoting Recruitment using Information Management Efficiently (PRIME): statistical analysis plan for a stepped wedge cluster randomised trial within the REstart or STop Antithrombotics Randomised Trial (RESTART)

BACKGROUND

Promoting Recruitment using Information Management Efficiently (PRIME) is a stepped wedge, cluster randomised trial-within-a-trial of a complex intervention to help sites in the United Kingdom to attain their own target number of participants to recruit to the REstart or STop Antithrombotics Randomised Trial (RESTART, ISRCTN71907627).

METHODS

Seventy-two hospital sites had opted into PRIME and were randomly allocated (using a computer-generated block randomisation algorithm, stratified by hospital location) to one of 12 months in which a complex intervention would be delivered. All sites began in the control state. The primary outcome is the total number of patients randomised into RESTART per month per site, which will be analysed in a negative binomial generalised linear mixed model. Secondary outcomes include the proportion of sites using stroke databases to identify potentially eligible patients before PRIME, frequency of using bespoke stroke audit data exports during PRIME, barriers to recruitment in PRIME, barriers to using the bespoke stroke audit data exports, and disadvantages of the bespoke stroke audit exports identified by PRIME sites. PRIME began in September 2015. The last intervention will be delivered in August 2016. Six-month follow-up will be complete in February 2017. This statistical analysis plan was written and submitted for publication before all sites received the PRIME intervention and before outcome data were known.

DISCUSSION

Final results of PRIME will be analysed and disseminated in 2017.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

Northern Ireland Hub for Trials Methodology Research SWAT repository (SWAT22).

The cascade of HIV care among refugees and nationals in Nakivale Refugee Settlement in Uganda

OBJECTIVES

Refugees living in Uganda come from HIV-endemic countries, and many remain in refugee settlements for over a decade. Our objective was to evaluate the HIV care cascade in Nakivale Refugee Settlement and to assess correlates of linkage to care.

METHODS

We prospectively enrolled individuals accessing clinic-based HIV testing in Nakivale Refugee Settlement from March 2013 to July 2014. Newly HIV-diagnosed clients were followed for 3 months post-diagnosis. Clients underwent a baseline survey. The following outcomes were obtained from HIV clinic registers in Nakivale: clinic attendance ('linkage to HIV care'), CD4 testing, antiretroviral therapy (ART) eligibility, and ART initiation within 90 days of testing. Descriptive data were reported as frequency with 95% confidence interval (CI) or median with interquartile range (IQR). The impact of baseline variables on linkage to care was assessed with logistic regression models.

RESULTS

Of 6850 adult clients tested for HIV, 276 (4%; CI: 3-5%) were diagnosed with HIV infection, 148 (54%; CI: 47-60%) of those were linked to HIV care, 54 (20%; CI: 15-25%) had a CD4 test, 22 (8%; CI: 5-12%) were eligible for ART, and 17 (6%; CI: 3-10%) initiated ART. The proportions of refugees and nationals at each step of the cascade were similar. We identified no significant predictors of linkage to care.

CONCLUSIONS

Less than a quarter of newly HIV-diagnosed clients completed ART assessment, considerably lower than in other reports from sub-Saharan Africa. Understanding which factors hinder linkage to and engagement in care in the settlement will be important to inform interventions specific for this environment.

Application of Mixed Effects Limits of Agreement in the Presence of Multiple Sources of Variability: Exemplar from the Comparison of Several Devices to Measure Respiratory Rate in COPD Patients

Introduction

The Bland-Altman limits of agreement method is widely used to assess how well the measurements produced by two raters, devices or systems agree with each other. However, mixed effects versions of the method which take into account multiple sources of variability are less well described in the literature. We address the practical challenges of applying mixed effects limits of agreement to the comparison of several devices to measure respiratory rate in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD).

Methods

Respiratory rate was measured in 21 people with a range of severity of COPD. Participants were asked to perform eleven different activities representative of daily life during a laboratory-based standardised protocol of 57 minutes. A mixed effects limits of agreement method was used to assess the agreement of five commercially available monitors (Camera, Photoplethysmography (PPG), Impedance, Accelerometer, and Chest-band) with the current gold standard device for measuring respiratory rate.

Results

Results produced using mixed effects limits of agreement were compared to results from a fixed effects method based on analysis of variance (ANOVA) and were found to be similar. The Accelerometer and Chest-band devices produced the narrowest limits of agreement (-8.63 to 4.27 and -9.99 to 6.80 respectively) with mean bias -2.18 and -1.60 breaths per minute. These devices also had the lowest within-participant and overall standard deviations (3.23 and 3.29 for Accelerometer and 4.17 and 4.28 for Chest-band respectively).

Conclusions

The mixed effects limits of agreement analysis enabled us to answer the question of which devices showed the strongest agreement with the gold standard device with respect to measuring respiratory rates. In particular, the estimated within-participant and overall standard deviations of the differences, which are easily obtainable from the mixed effects model results, gave a clear indication that the Accelerometer and Chest-band devices performed best.

Correction: Supported Telemonitoring and Glycemic Control in People with Type 2 Diabetes: The Telescot Diabetes Pragmatic Multicenter Randomized Controlled Trial

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1371/journal.pmed.1002098.].