Sea-level rise in Southwest Greenland as a contributor to Viking abandonment

The first records of Greenland Vikings date to 985 CE. Archaeological evidence yields insight into how Vikings lived, yet drivers of their disappearance in the 15th century remain enigmatic. Research suggests a combination of environmental and socioeconomic factors, and the climatic shift from the Medieval Warm Period (~900 to 1250 CE) to the Little Ice Age (~1250 to 1900 CE) may have forced them to abandon Greenland. Glacial geomorphology and paleoclimate research suggest that the Southern Greenland Ice Sheet readvanced during Viking occupation, peaking in the Little Ice Age. Counterintuitively, the readvance caused sea-level rise near the ice margin due to increased gravitational attraction toward the ice sheet and crustal subsidence. We estimate ice growth in Southwestern Greenland using geomorphological indicators and lake core data from previous literature. We calculate the effect of ice growth on regional sea level by applying our ice history to a geophysical model of sea level with a resolution of ~1 km across Southwestern Greenland and compare the results to archaeological evidence. The results indicate that sea level rose up to ~3.3 m outside the glaciation zone during Viking settlement, producing shoreline retreat of hundreds of meters. Sea-level rise was progressive and encompassed the entire Eastern Settlement. Moreover, pervasive flooding would have forced abandonment of many coastal sites. These processes likely contributed to the suite of vulnerabilities that led to Viking abandonment of Greenland. Sea-level change thus represents an integral, missing element of the Viking story.

Antarctic surface temperature and elevation during the Last Glacial Maximum

Water-stable isotopes in polar ice cores are a widely used temperature proxy in paleoclimate reconstruction, yet calibration remains challenging in East Antarctica. Here, we reconstruct the magnitude and spatial pattern of Last Glacial Maximum surface cooling in Antarctica using borehole thermometry and firn properties in seven ice cores. West Antarctic sites cooled ~10°C relative to the preindustrial period. East Antarctic sites show a range from ~4° to ~7°C cooling, which is consistent with the results of global climate models when the effects of topographic changes indicated with ice core air-content data are included, but less than those indicated with the use of water-stable isotopes calibrated against modern spatial gradients. An altered Antarctic temperature inversion during the glacial reconciles our estimates with water-isotope observations.

The Paris Climate Agreement and future sea-level rise from Antarctica

The Paris Agreement aims to limit global mean warming in the twenty-first century to less than 2 degrees Celsius above preindustrial levels, and to promote further efforts to limit warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius¹. The amount of greenhouse gas emissions in coming decades will be consequential for global mean sea level (GMSL) on century and longer timescales through a combination of ocean thermal expansion and loss of land ice². The Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) is Earth's largest land ice reservoir (equivalent to 57.9 metres of GMSL)³, and its ice loss is accelerating⁴. Extensive regions of the AIS are grounded below sea level and susceptible to dynamical instabilities^5-8 that are capable of producing very rapid retreat⁸. Yet the potential for the implementation of the Paris Agreement temperature targets to slow or stop the onset of these instabilities has not been directly tested with physics-based models. Here we use an observationally calibrated ice sheet-shelf model to show that with global warming limited to 2 degrees Celsius or less, Antarctic ice loss will continue at a pace similar to today's throughout the twenty-first century. However, scenarios more consistent with current policies (allowing 3 degrees Celsius of warming) give an abrupt jump in the pace of Antarctic ice loss after around 2060, contributing about 0.5 centimetres GMSL rise per year by 2100-an order of magnitude faster than today⁴. More fossil-fuel-intensive scenarios⁹ result in even greater acceleration. Ice-sheet retreat initiated by the thinning and loss of buttressing ice shelves continues for centuries, regardless of bedrock and sea-level feedback mechanisms^10-12 or geoengineered carbon dioxide reduction. These results demonstrate the possibility that rapid and unstoppable sea-level rise from Antarctica will be triggered if Paris Agreement targets are exceeded.

The polar regions in a 2°C warmer world

Over the past decade, the Arctic has warmed by 0.75°C, far outpacing the global average, while Antarctic temperatures have remained comparatively stable. As Earth approaches 2°C warming, the Arctic and Antarctic may reach 4°C and 2°C mean annual warming, and 7°C and 3°C winter warming, respectively. Expected consequences of increased Arctic warming include ongoing loss of land and sea ice, threats to wildlife and traditional human livelihoods, increased methane emissions, and extreme weather at lower latitudes. With low biodiversity, Antarctic ecosystems may be vulnerable to state shifts and species invasions. Land ice loss in both regions will contribute substantially to global sea level rise, with up to 3 m rise possible if certain thresholds are crossed. Mitigation efforts can slow or reduce warming, but without them northern high latitude warming may accelerate in the next two to four decades. International cooperation will be crucial to foreseeing and adapting to expected changes.

Troughs developed in ice-stream shear margins precondition ice shelves for ocean-driven breakup

Floating ice shelves of fast-flowing ice streams are prone to rift initiation and calving originating along zones of rapid shearing at their margins. Predicting future ice-shelf destabilization under a warming ocean scenario, with the resultant reduced buttressing, faster ice flow, and sea-level rise, therefore requires an understanding of the processes that thin and weaken these shear margins. Here, we use satellite data to show that high velocity gradients result in surface troughs along the margins of fast-flowing ice streams. These troughs are advected into ice-shelf margins, where the locally thinned ice floats upward to form basal troughs. Buoyant plumes of warm ocean water beneath ice shelves can be focused into these basal troughs, localizing melting and weakening the ice-shelf margins. This implies that major ice sheet drainages are preconditioned for rapid retreat in response to ocean warming.

Overestimate of committed warming

Palaeoclimate variations are an essential component in constraining future projections of climate change as a function of increasing anthropogenic greenhouse gases1 . The Earth System Sensitivity (ESS) describes the multi-millennial response of Earth (in terms of global mean temperature) to a doubling of CO2 concentrations. A recent study2 used a correlation of inferred temperatures and radiative forcing from greenhouse gases over the past 800,000 years3 to estimate the ESS from present day CO2 is about 9°C, and to imply a long-term commitment of 3–7°C even if greenhouse gas levels remain at present-day concentrations. However, we demonstrate that the methodology of ref. 2 does not reliably estimate the ESS in the presence of orbital forcing of ice age cycles and therefore conclude that the inferred2 present-day committed warming is considerably overestimated. There is a Reply to this Comment by Snyder, C. W. Nature 547, http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/nature22804 (2017).

Windblown Pliocene diatoms and East Antarctic Ice Sheet retreat

Marine diatoms in tillites along the Transantarctic Mountains (TAMs) have been used to suggest a diminished East Antarctic Ice Sheet (EAIS) during Pliocene warm periods. Updated ice-sheet modelling shows significant Pliocene EAIS retreat, creating marine embayments into the Wilkes and Aurora basins that were conducive to high diatom productivity and rapid accumulation of diatomaceous sediments. Here we show that subsequent isostatic uplift exposed accumulated unconsolidated marine deposits to wind erosion. We report new atmospheric modelling utilizing Pliocene climate and derived Antarctic landscapes indicating that prevailing mid-altitude winds transported diatoms towards the TAMs, dominantly from extensive emerged coastal deposits of the Aurora Basin. This result unifies leading ideas from competing sides of a contentious debate about the origin of the diatoms in the TAMs and their link to EAIS history, supporting the view that parts of the EAIS are vulnerable to relatively modest warming, with possible implications for future sea-level rise.

A long-standing debate regarding the Pliocene history of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet was spurred by the discovery of marine diatoms in the Transantarctic Mountains. Here the authors show that the diatoms were emplaced by wind following a retreat of the ice sheet into coastal basins and subsequent isostatic emergence.

Ice-sheet response to oceanic forcing

The ice sheets of Greenland and Antarctica are losing ice at accelerating rates, much of which is a response to oceanic forcing, especially of the floating ice shelves. Recent observations establish a clear correspondence between the increased delivery of oceanic heat to the ice-sheet margin and increased ice loss. In Antarctica, most of these processes are reasonably well understood but have not been rigorously quantified. In Greenland, an understanding of the processes by which warmer ocean temperatures drive the observed retreat remains elusive. Experiments designed to identify the relevant processes are confounded by the logistical difficulties of instrumenting ice-choked fjords with actively calving glaciers. For both ice sheets, multiple challenges remain before the fully coupled ice-ocean-atmosphere models needed for rigorous sea-level projection are available.

The atmosphere during the younger dryas

One of the most dramatic climate change events observed in marine and ice core records is the Younger Dryas, a return to near-glacial conditions that punctuated the last deglaciation. High-resolution, continuous glaciochemical records, newly retrieved from central Greenland, record the chemical composition of the arctic atmosphere at this time. This record shows that both the onset and the termination of the Younger Dryas occurred within 10 to 20 years and that massive, frequent, and short-term (decadal or less) changes in atmospheric composition occurred throughout this event. Changes in atmospheric composition are attributable to changes in the size of the polar atmospheric cell and resultant changes in source regions and to the growth and decay of continental biogenic source regions.

A simple law for ice-shelf calving

A major problem for ice-sheet models is that no physically based law for the calving process has been established. Comparison across a diverse set of ice shelves demonstrates that iceberg calving increases with the along-flow spreading rate of a shelf. This relation suggests that frictional buttressing loss, which increases spreading, also leads to shelf retreat, a process known to accelerate ice-sheet flow and contribute to sea-level rise.

Effect of Sedimentation on Ice-Sheet Grounding-Line Stability

Sedimentation filling space beneath ice shelves helps to stabilize ice sheets against grounding-line retreat in response to a rise in relative sea level of at least several meters. Recent Antarctic changes thus cannot be attributed to sea-level rise, strengthening earlier interpretations that warming has driven ice-sheet mass loss. Large sea-level rise, such as the approximately 100-meter rise at the end of the last ice age, may overwhelm the stabilizing feedback from sedimentation, but smaller sea-level changes are unlikely to have synchronized the behavior of ice sheets in the past.

Discovery of till deposition at the grounding line of Whillans Ice Stream

We report on the discovery of a grounding-line sedimentary wedge ("till delta") deposited by Whillans Ice Stream, West Antarctica. Our observation is that grounding-line deposition serves to thicken the ice and stabilize the position of the grounding line. The ice thickness at the grounding line is greater than that of floating ice in hydrostatic equilibrium. Thus, the grounding line will tend to remain in the same location despite changes in sea level (until sea level rises enough to overcome the excess thickness that is due to the wedge). Further, our observation demonstrates the occurrence of rapid subglacial erosion, sediment transport by distributed subglacial till deformation, and grounding-line sedimentation, which have important implications for ice dynamics, numerical modeling of ice flow, and interpretation of the sedimentation record.

Paleoclimatic Evidence for Future Ice-Sheet Instability and Rapid Sea-Level Rise

Sea-level rise from melting of polar ice sheets is one of the largest potential threats of future climate change. Polar warming by the year 2100 may reach levels similar to those of 130,000 to 127,000 years ago that were associated with sea levels several meters above modern levels; both the Greenland Ice Sheet and portions of the Antarctic Ice Sheet may be vulnerable. The record of past ice-sheet melting indicates that the rate of future melting and related sea-level rise could be faster than widely thought.

Ice-sheet and sea-level changes

Future sea-level rise is an important issue related to the continuing buildup of atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations. The Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets, with the potential to raise sea level approximately 70 meters if completely melted, dominate uncertainties in projected sea-level change. Freshwater fluxes from these ice sheets also may affect oceanic circulation, contributing to climate change. Observational and modeling advances have reduced many uncertainties related to ice-sheet behavior, but recently detected, rapid ice-marginal changes contributing to sea-level rise may indicate greater ice-sheet sensitivity to warming than previously considered.

Implications of abrupt climate change

Records of past climates contained in ice cores, ocean sediments, and other archives show that large, abrupt, widespread climate changes have occurred repeatedly in the past. These changes were especially prominent during the cooling into and warming out of the last ice age, but persisted into the modern warm interval. Changes have especially affected water availability in warm regions and temperature in cold regions, but have affected almost all climatic variables across much or all of the Earth. Impacts of climate changes are smaller if the changes are slower or more-expected. The rapidity of abrupt climate changes, together with the difficulty of predicting such changes, means that impacts on the health of humans, economies and ecosystems will be larger if abrupt climate changes occur. Most projections of future climate include only gradual changes, whereas paleoclimatic data plus models indicate that abrupt changes remain possible; thus, policy is being made based on a view of the future that may be optimistic.

Palaeoclimatic insights into future climate challenges

Palaeoclimatic data document a sensitive climate system subject to large and perhaps difficult-to-predict abrupt changes. These data suggest that neither the sensitivity nor the variability of the climate are fully captured in some climate-change projections, such as the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Summary for Policymakers. Because larger, faster and less-expected climate changes can cause more problems for economies and ecosystems, the palaeoclimatic data suggest the hypothesis that the future may be more challenging than anticipated in ongoing policy making. Large changes have occurred repeatedly with little net forcing. Increasing carbon dioxide concentration appears to have globalized deglacial warming, with climate sensitivity near the upper end of values from general circulation models (GCMs) used to project human-enhanced greenhouse warming; data from the warm Cretaceous period suggest a similarly high climate sensitivity to CO(2). Abrupt climate changes of the most recent glacial-interglacial cycle occurred during warm as well as cold times, linked especially to changing North Atlantic freshwater fluxes. GCMs typically project greenhouse-gas-induced North Atlantic freshening and circulation changes with notable but not extreme consequences; however, such models often underestimate the magnitude, speed or extent of past changes. Targeted research to assess model uncertainties would help to test these hypotheses.

Development, principles, and applications of automated ice fabric analyzers

We review the recent development of automated techniques to determine the fabric and texture of polycrystalline ice. The motivation for the study of ice fabric is first outlined. After a brief introduction to the relevant optical concepts, the classic manual technique for fabric measurement is described, along with early attempts at partial automation. Then, the general principles behind fully automated techniques are discussed. We describe in some detail the similarities and differences of the three modern instruments recently developed for ice fabric studies. Next, we discuss briefly X-ray, radar, and acoustic techniques for ice fabric characterization. We also discuss the principles behind automated optical techniques to measure fabric in quartz rock samples. Finally, examples of new applications that have been facilitated by the development of the ice fabric instruments are presented.

Tidally controlled stick-slip discharge of a West Antarctic ice

A major West Antarctic ice stream discharges by sudden and brief periods of very rapid motion paced by oceanic tidal oscillations of about 1 meter. Acceleration to speeds greater than 1 meter per hour and deceleration back to a stationary state occur in minutes or less. Slip propagates at approximately 88 meters per second, suggestive of a shear wave traveling within the subglacial till. A model of an episodically slipping friction-locked fault reproduces the observed quasi-periodic event timing, demonstrating an ice stream's ability to change speed rapidly and its extreme sensitivity to subglacial conditions and variations in sea level.

Ice core records of atmospheric N2O covering the last 106,000 years

Paleoatmospheric records of trace-gas concentrations recovered from ice cores provide important sources of information on many biogeochemical cycles involving carbon, nitrogen, and oxygen. Here, we present a 106,000-year record of atmospheric nitrous oxide (N2O) along with corresponding isotopic records spanning the last 30,000 years, which together suggest minimal changes in the ratio of marine to terrestrial N2O production. During the last glacial termination, both marine and oceanic N2O emissions increased by 40 +/- 8%. We speculate that our records do not support those hypotheses that invoke enhanced export production to explain low carbon dioxide values during glacial periods.

Stabilizing feedbacks in glacier-bed erosion

Glaciers often erode, transport and deposit sediment much more rapidly than nonglacial environments, with implications for the evolution of glaciated mountain belts and their associated sedimentary basins. But modelling such glacial processes is difficult, partly because stabilizing feedbacks similar to those operating in rivers have not been identified for glacial landscapes. Here we combine new and existing data of glacier morphology and the processes governing glacier evolution from diverse settings to reveal such stabilizing feedbacks. We find that the long profiles of beds of highly erosive glaciers tend towards steady-state angles opposed to and slightly more than 50 per cent steeper than the overlying ice-air surface slopes, and that additional subglacial deepening must be enabled by non-glacial processes. Climatic or glaciological perturbations of the ice-air surface slope can have large transient effects on glaciofluvial sediment flux and apparent glacial erosion rate.

Abrupt climate change

Large, abrupt, and widespread climate changes with major impacts have occurred repeatedly in the past, when the Earth system was forced across thresholds. Although abrupt climate changes can occur for many reasons, it is conceivable that human forcing of climate change is increasing the probability of large, abrupt events. Were such an event to recur, the economic and ecological impacts could be large and potentially serious. Unpredictability exhibited near climate thresholds in simple models shows that some uncertainty will always be associated with projections. In light of these uncertainties, policy-makers should consider expanding research into abrupt climate change, improving monitoring systems, and taking actions designed to enhance the adaptability and resilience of ecosystems and economies.

Ice-core evidence of abrupt climate changes

Ice-core records show that climate changes in the past have been large, rapid, and synchronous over broad areas extending into low latitudes, with less variability over historical times. These ice-core records come from high mountain glaciers and the polar regions, including small ice caps and the large ice sheets of Greenland and Antarctica.

Global climate change

Most of the last 100,000 years or longer has been characterized by large, abrupt, regional-to-global climate changes. Agriculture and industry have developed during anomalously stable climatic conditions. New, high-resolution analyses of sediment cores using multiproxy and physically based transfer functions allow increasingly confident interpretation of these past changes as having been caused by "band jumps" between modes of operation of the climate system. Recurrence of such band jumps is possible and might be affected by human activities.

Record of Volcanism Since 7000 B.C. from the GISP2 Greenland Ice Core and Implications for the Volcano-Climate System

Sulfate concentrations from continuous biyearly sampling of the GISP2 Greenland ice core provide a record of potential climate-forcing volcanism since 7000 B.C. Although 85 percent of the events recorded over the last 2000 years were matched to documented volcanic eruptions, only about 30 percent of the events from 1 to 7000 B.C. were matched to such events. Several historic eruptions may have been greater sulfur producers than previously thought. There are three times as many events from 5000 to 7000 B.C. as over the last two millennia with sulfate deposition equal to or up to five times that of the largest known historical eruptions. This increased volcanism in the early Holocene may have contributed to climatic cooling.

Changes in Atmospheric Circulation and Ocean Ice Cover over the North Atlantic During the Last 41,000 Years

High-resolution, continuous multivariate chemical records from a central Greenland ice core provide a sensitive measure of climate change and chemical composition of the atmosphere over the last 41,000 years. These chemical series reveal a record of change in the relative size and intensity of the circulation system that transported air masses to Greenland [defined here as the polar circulation index (PCI)] and in the extent of ocean ice cover. Massive iceberg discharge events previously defined from the marine record are correlated with notable expansions of ocean ice cover and increases in PCI. During stadials without discharge events, ocean ice cover appears to reach some common maximum level. The massive aerosol loadings and dramatic variations in ocean ice cover documented in ice cores should be included in climate modeling.