Thematic analysis of the challenges and options for the Portfolio Committee on Health in reviewing the National Health Insurance Bill

The Portfolio Committee on Health (PCH) obtained public input on the National Health Insurance Bill from a wide array of individuals and organisations between May and September 2021. The record of these submissions collated by the Parliamentary Monitoring Group provided the source material for this article. The concerns, suggestions and other issues raised by respondents were analysed to determine what challenges and options the PCH needs to take seriously as they prepare the Bill for Parliament. Prominent issues raised included concerns about the proposed governance structure, flaws in the funding model, the risk of corruption, the constitutional and human rights at risk, limited access to care for several groups, and the unresolved nature of the medical benefits to be provided under the Bill. Future legal contestation of the Bill on several of these issues has the potential to stop or delay its implementation for a long time. The PCH has some hard decisions to make: whether to address these concerns with quite radical revisions of the bill, to omit problematic elements, or to leave it unchanged, and accept the contestation this will bring.

The role of the Minister of Health in the National Health Insurance Bill: Challenges and options for the Portfolio Committee on Health

The Portfolio Committee on Health (PCH) is responsible for obtaining public input on the National Health Insurance Bill, reviewing the Bill based on these inputs, and presenting the final Bill to the National Assembly. More than 130 individuals, organisations and institutions requested to make oral presentations, which commenced on 18 May 2021. Drawing on Parliamentary Monitoring Group meeting summaries and the presentations and submissions made by 82 respondents between 18 May and 10 September 2021, we examine governance concerns, especially in relation to the role and powers of the Minister of Health, and respondents' proposals for addressing them, and outline the challenges and options for the PCH in responding to the proposals.

709 IMPACT ON HEALTHCARE UTILISATION OF A GENERAL PRACTITIONER-LED MODEL OF CARE FOR PATIENTS WITH FRAILTY

Introduction

Primary care has a significant role to play in the identification and management of frailty. MidMed is a new dedicated GP-led service developed by a large practice in Midlothian for patients living at home with moderate or severe frailty. MidMed comprises a full-time GP performing a comprehensive geriatric assessment (CGA) adapted for primary care. Patients receive direct access to all appointments with the named GP. The aim of this study was to assess the impact of MidMed on healthcare utilisation in this patient group.

Methods

Patients with moderate or severe frailty at the MidMed practice were identified by the electronic Frailty Index (>0.24). After 16 months, patients who had been accepted into MidMed (MidMed group) were compared with those yet to be enrolled and who continued to receive usual care (non-MidMed group). Routinely collected data were used to identify outcomes including unscheduled hospital admissions, primary care consultations, continuity of care, outpatient attendances and mortality. Adjusted rate ratios were estimated using regression models.

Results

510 patients with moderate or severe frailty were identified (290 in MidMed, 220 in non-MidMed). Patients in each group were just as likely to have at least one hospital admission per year but those in MidMed had a reduced risk of further hospital admission compared to the non-MidMed group (adjusted RR 0.46 [95%CI 0.30–0.71]). MidMed was also associated with statistically significant higher usage of primary care (adjusted RR 1.52, [95%CI, 1.30–1.75]) and better continuity of care. There was no difference in mortality or the number of outpatient appointments when adjusted for co-variates.

Conclusion

A GP-led service for frailty is associated with lower risk of hospital readmission and improved continuity of care. Further studies are now required to better understand why use of such primary care services increase and whether this changes over time.

Complex foraging behaviours in wild birds emerge from social learning and recombination of components

Recent well-documented cases of cultural evolution towards increasing efficiency in non-human animals have led some authors to propose that other animals are also capable of cumulative cultural evolution, where traits become more refined and/or complex over time. Yet few comparative examples exist of traits increasing in complexity, and experimental tests remain scarce. In a previous study, we introduced a foraging innovation into replicate subpopulations of great tits, the 'sliding-door puzzle'. Here, we track diffusion of a second 'dial puzzle', before introducing a two-step puzzle that combines both actions. We mapped social networks across two generations to ask if individuals could: (1) recombine socially-learned traits and (2) socially transmit a two-step trait. Our results show birds could recombine skills into more complex foraging behaviours, and naïve birds across both generations could learn the two-step trait. However, closer interrogation revealed that acquisition was not achieved entirely through social learning-rather, birds socially learned components before reconstructing full solutions asocially. As a consequence, singular cultural traditions failed to emerge, although subpopulations of birds shared preferences for a subset of behavioural variants. Our results show that while tits can socially learn complex foraging behaviours, these may need to be scaffolded by rewarding each component. This article is part of a discussion meeting issue 'The emergence of collective knowledge and cumulative culture in animals, humans and machines'.

P–720 Prevalence of Female Infertility in the UK Armed Forces

Study question

What is the prevalence of female infertility among UK military personnel and does it differ from the Metropolitan Police Service (MPS) and civilian populations?

Summary answer

Prevalence of self-reported infertility was higher in servicewomen (31.7%) and female MPS officers (36.3%) than in civilian women (24.4%).

What is known already

Arduous employment is associated with numerous potential occupational hazards and behaviours that may be relevant to fertility. These include physical and psychological stress, smoking, alcohol drinking and other lifestyle factors. A preliminarily report in 2016 indicated that UK servicewomen over 30 years of age were more likely to present with fertility problems compared with reported civilian infertility data for age-matched women. Few previous studies have compared infertility prevalence of servicewomen with civilians, and none have compared infertility prevalence with other occupations.

Study design, size, duration

A cross-sectional study was undertaken in 2019 to determine prevalence of infertility. All eligible UK servicewomen (14,650) and MPS officers (8,262) aged 18–60 years were invited to participate with sisters of participants recruited as controls using a snowball technique. Data including pregnancy history, time to each pregnancy and self-reported infertility risk-factors were collected using an online questionnaire. We estimated a sample of 4898 servicewomen would give a precision of 1% around infertility prevalence estimates.

Participants/materials, setting, methods

The questionnaire was developed, piloted and adapted for electronic distribution. The occupational groups were invited by email to complete the questionnaire on three occasions. Prevalence of infertility was defined as the proportion of women at risk of pregnancy who had not become pregnant within 12 months. Only women with pregnancy outcomes, or fully tested for fertility (12 months or more of exposure), were included in the denominator.

Main results and the role of chance

Participants included 4806 (33%) women serving in the UK Armed Forces, 1237 (15%) female MPS officers and 435 (estimated 8%) non-military, non-MPS sisters (biological, half, step or adopted) of both groups. 98.4% of responses were complete. Prevalence of self-reported 12-month infertility was 31.7% (95% CI 29.9–33.5) in servicewomen, 36.3% (95% CI 33.1–39.7) in MPS officers and 24.4% (95% CI 19.6–29.8) in civilian women. Age, history of polycystic ovary syndrome, endometriosis, fibroids, tubal and pelvic surgery, hysterectomy and a short General Health Questionnaire (GHQ 12) score of > 4 (suggesting a minor psychiatric disorder) were associated with infertility and adjusted for in logistic regression models to estimate odds ratios. The adjusted odds ratio (aOR) of infertility in servicewomen was 1.0 (95% CI 0.8–1.2) compared with MPS officers and 1.5 (95% CI 1.1–2.0) in both servicewomen and MPS officers compared with sisters.

Limitations, reasons for caution

The major limitation is the low response rate, particularly in the two control groups, potentially resulting in response bias. Prevalence of infertility could have been further over-estimated if fertile women are more likely to have left the military or MPS. There is scope for residual confounding.

Wider implications of the findings: Further analyses will explore the key risk factors to identify what aspects of these occupations contribute to infertility and which may be modifiable. Future cohort studies would be helpful to extend the understanding of the influence of occupation on infertility.

Trial registration number

Not applicable

North Atlantic climate far more predictable than models imply

Quantifying signals and uncertainties in climate models is essential for the detection, attribution, prediction and projection of climate change^1-3. Although inter-model agreement is high for large-scale temperature signals, dynamical changes in atmospheric circulation are very uncertain⁴. This leads to low confidence in regional projections, especially for precipitation, over the coming decades^5,6. The chaotic nature of the climate system^7-9 may also mean that signal uncertainties are largely irreducible. However, climate projections are difficult to verify until further observations become available. Here we assess retrospective climate model predictions of the past six decades and show that decadal variations in North Atlantic winter climate are highly predictable, despite a lack of agreement between individual model simulations and the poor predictive ability of raw model outputs. Crucially, current models underestimate the predictable signal (the predictable fraction of the total variability) of the North Atlantic Oscillation (the leading mode of variability in North Atlantic atmospheric circulation) by an order of magnitude. Consequently, compared to perfect models, 100 times as many ensemble members are needed in current models to extract this signal, and its effects on the climate are underestimated relative to other factors. To address these limitations, we implement a two-stage post-processing technique. We first adjust the variance of the ensemble-mean North Atlantic Oscillation forecast to match the observed variance of the predictable signal. We then select and use only the ensemble members with a North Atlantic Oscillation sufficiently close to the variance-adjusted ensemble-mean forecast North Atlantic Oscillation. This approach greatly improves decadal predictions of winter climate for Europe and eastern North America. Predictions of Atlantic multidecadal variability are also improved, suggesting that the North Atlantic Oscillation is not driven solely by Atlantic multidecadal variability. Our results highlight the need to understand why the signal-to-noise ratio is too small in current climate models¹⁰, and the extent to which correcting this model error would reduce uncertainties in regional climate change projections on timescales beyond a decade.

Tool use and social homophily among male bottlenose dolphins

Homophilous behaviour plays a central role in the formation of human friendships. Individuals form social ties with others that show similar phenotypic traits, independently of relatedness. Evidence of such homophily can be found in bottlenose dolphins ( Tursiops aduncus) in Shark Bay, Western Australia, where females that use marine sponges as foraging tools often associate with other females that use sponges. 'Sponging' is a socially learned, time-consuming behaviour, transmitted from mother to calf. Previous research illustrated a strong female bias in adopting this technique. The lower propensity for males to engage in sponging may be due to its incompatibility with adult male-specific behaviours, particularly the formation of multi-level alliances. However, the link between sponging and male behaviour has never been formally tested. Here, we show that male spongers associated significantly more often with other male spongers irrespective of their level of relatedness. Male spongers spent significantly more time foraging, and less time resting and travelling, than did male non-spongers. Interestingly, we found no difference in time spent socializing. Our study provides novel insights into the relationship between tool use and activity budgets of male dolphins, and indicates social homophily in the second-order alliance composition of tool-using bottlenose dolphins.

Cardiovascular disease prevalence and risk factor prevalence in Type 2 diabetes: a contemporary analysis

AIMS

To describe the prevalence of major cardiovascular disease (CVD) and risk factor control in a contemporary population with Type 2 diabetes.

METHODS

We used data from the national registry in Scotland, Scottish Care Information-Diabetes, linked to hospital admissions. Using descriptive statistics and logistic regression we described associations of risk factors with CVD. CVD was defined based on diagnostic codes in primary or secondary care data for ischaemic heart disease, cerebrovascular disease peripheral arterial disease, heart failure, cardiac arrhythmia, hypertensive heart disease and revascularization procedures.

RESULTS

Among 248 400 people with Type 2 diabetes with a median age of 67.5 years (IQR 58.2, 76.1) and median diabetes duration of 7.8 years (3.8, 13.0), 32% had prior CVD (35% of men, 29% of women). Median HbA_1c overall was 55 mmol/mol (7.2%), median SBP was 132 mmHg, median total cholesterol was 4.1 mmol/l and mean BMI was 32 kg/m² _. Overall two-thirds (65% of men, 68% of women) have two or more of the following CVD risk factor thresholds: HbA_1c ≥ 53 mmol/mol (7%), SBP > 130 mmHg or DBP > 80 mmHg, total cholesterol ≥ 5 mmol/l or BMI ≥ 30 kg/m² , or were currently smoking. Overall 84% were taking anti-hypertensives and 75% a statin. Use of metformin was common at 58%, but other diabetes drugs that reduce CVD were rarely used.

CONCLUSIONS

There continues to be a high prevalence of CVD among people with Type 2 diabetes and a high level of unmet need for risk factor control. This implies substantial scope for reducing the excess risk of CVD in diabetes through improved management of known risk factors.

Matched population-based study examining the risk of type 2 diabetes in people with and without diagnosed hepatitis C virus infection

Meta-analyses have found hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection to be associated with an increased risk of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). Here, we examine this association within a large population-based study, according to HCV RNA status. A data-linkage approach was used to examine the excess risk of diagnosed T2DM in people diagnosed with antibodies to HCV (anti-HCV) in Scotland (21 929 anti-HCV(+ves) ; involving 15 827 HCV RNA(+ves) , 3927 HCV RNA(-ves) and 2175 with unknown RNA-status) compared to that of a threefold larger general population sample matched for gender, age and postcode (65 074 anti-HCV(-ves) ). To investigate effects of ascertainment bias the following periods were studied: up to 1 year before (pre-HCV)/within 1 year of (peri-HCV)/more than 1 year post (post-HCV) the date of HCV-diagnosis. T2DM had been diagnosed in 2.9% of anti-HCV(+ves) (including 3.2% of HCV RNA(+ves) and 2.3% of HCV RNA(-ves) ) and 2.7% of anti-HCV(-ves) . A higher proportion of T2DM was diagnosed in the peri-HCV period (i.e. around the time of HCV-diagnosis) for the anti-HCV(+ves) (22%) compared to anti-HCV(-ves) (10%). In both the pre-HCV and post-HCV periods, only those anti-HCV(+ves) living in less deprived areas (13% of the cohort) were found to have a significant excess risk of T2DM compared to anti-HCV(-ves) (adjusted odds ratio in the pre-HCV period: 4.0 for females and 2.3 for males; adjusted hazard ratio in the post-HCV period: 1.5). These findings were similarly observed for both HCV RNA(+ves) (chronic) and HCV RNA(-ves) (resolved). In the largest study of T2DM among chronic HCV-infected individuals to date, there was no evidence to indicate that infection conveyed an appreciable excess risk of T2DM at the population level.

Assessing the impact of an English national initiative for early cancer diagnosis in primary care

BACKGROUND

The Cancer Networks Supporting Primary Care programme was a National Health Service (NHS) initiative in England between 2011 and 2013 that aimed to better understand and improve referral practices for suspected cancer.

METHODS

A mixed methods evaluation using semi-structured interviews with purposefully sampled key stakeholders and an analysis of Cancer Waiting Times and Hospital Episode Statistics data for all 8179 practices in England were undertaken. We compared periods before (2009/10) and at the end (2012/13) of the initiative for practices taking up any one of four specified quality improvement initiatives expected to change referral practice in the short to medium term and those that did not.

RESULTS

Overall, 38% of general practices were involved in at least one of four quality improvement activities (clinical audit, significant event analysis, use of risk assessment tools and development of practice plans). Against an overall 29% increase in urgent cancer referrals between 2009/10 and 2012/13, these practices had a significantly higher increase in referral rate, with reduced between-practice variation. There were no significant differences between the two groups in conversion, detection or emergency presentation rates. Key features of successful implementation at practice and network level reported by participants included leadership, organisational culture and physician involvement. Concurrent health service reforms created organisational uncertainty and limited the programme's effectiveness.

CONCLUSIONS

Specific primary care initiatives promoted by cancer networks had an additional and positive impact on urgent referrals for suspected cancer. Successful engagement with the programmes depended on effective and well-supported leadership by cancer networks and their general practitioner (GP) leads.

End-stage renal disease and survival in people with diabetes: a national database linkage study

BACKGROUND

Increasing prevalence of diabetes worldwide is projected to lead to an increase in patients with end-stage renal disease (ESRD) requiring renal replacement therapy (RRT).

AIM

To provide contemporary estimates of the prevalence of ESRD and requirement for RRT among people with diabetes in a nationwide study and to report associated survival.

METHODS

Data were extracted and linked from three national databases: Scottish Renal Registry, Scottish Care Initiative-Diabetes Collaboration and National Records of Scotland death data. Survival analyses were modelled with Cox regression.

RESULTS

Point prevalence of chronic kidney disease (CKD)5 in 2008 was 1.63% of 19 414 people with type 1 diabetes (T1DM) compared with 0.58% of 167 871 people with type 2 diabetes (T2DM) (odds ratio for DM type 0.97, P = 0.77, on adjustment for duration. Although 83% of those with T1DM and CKD5 and 61% of those with T2DM and CKD5 were receiving RRT, there was no difference when adjusted for age, sex and DM duration (odds ratio for DM type 0.83, P = 0.432). Diabetic nephropathy was the primary renal diagnosis in 91% of people with T1DM and 58% of people with T2DM on RRT. Median survival time from initiation of RRT was 3.84 years (95% CI 2.77, 4.62) in T1DM and 2.16 years (95% CI: 1.92, 2.38) in T2DM.

CONCLUSION

Considerable numbers of patients with diabetes continue to progress to CKD5 and RRT. Almost half of all RRT cases in T2DM are considered to be due to conditions other than diabetic nephropathy. Median survival time for people with diabetes from initiation of RRT remains poor. These prevalence data are important for future resource planning.

Treating ST elevation myocardial infarction by primary percutaneous coronary intervention, in-hospital thrombolysis and prehospital thrombolysis. An observational study of timelines and outcomes in 625 patients

OBJECTIVE

To describe the effects of implementing of a percutaneous coronary intervention (PPCI) service and compare the distribution of reperfusion therapies 12 months pre and post introduction of PPCI.

DESIGN

Observational study with data collected 12 months pre and post-availability of Primary PCI as routine treatment.

SETTING

Lothian region in South-East Scotland. Patients 625 Patients who received reperfusion treatment between December 2005 and November 2007.

RESULTS

PHT was given to 96/328 patients (29%) prior to availability of PPCI as routine treatment. Following routine availability, PPCI was delivered to 248/297 patients who received reperfusion treatment (84%). Median diagnosis-to-PCI balloon inflation time and hospital door-to-balloon time were 84 and 54 min, respectively. Patients received PPCI balloon inflation within 90 min of diagnosis in 60% of cases. PPCI-related delay was 74 min compared with prehospital thrombolysis (PHT). PHT (152 min) and PPCI (166 min) had shorter symptom onset-to-assessment of reperfusion times than in-hospital thrombolysis (IHT) (226 min).

CONCLUSIONS

More than two-thirds of the total-ischaemic-time in (ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction) STEMI occurs before the patient reaches hospital, with less than one-third being accounted for by door-to-needle (IHT) or door-to-balloon (PPCI) time. The magnitude of difference in the time between symptom onset-and-assessment of reperfusion treatment efficacy is short and should be considered, particularly in patients treated with thrombolysis in hospitals without cath-lab facilities. Optimal reperfusion treatment including a combination of PHT, IHT and PPCI, as recommended in international guidelines, is feasible in the UK although the balance between the use of different treatments will differ between urban and rural areas.

Risk prediction models for the development of diabetes in Mauritian Indians

AIMS

To develop risk prediction models of future diabetes in Mauritian Indians.

METHODS

Three thousand and ninety-four Mauritian Indians (1141 men, aged 20-65 years) without diabetes in 1987 or 1992 were followed up to 1992 or 1998. Subjects underwent repeated oral glucose tolerance tests and diabetes was diagnosed according to 2006 World Health Organization/International Diabetes Federation criteria. Cox regression models for interval censored data were performed using data from 1544 randomly selected participants. Predicted probabilities for diabetes were calculated and validated in the remaining 1550 subjects.

RESULTS

Over 11 years of follow-up, there were 511 cases of diabetes. Among variables tested, family history of diabetes, obesity (body mass index, waist circumference) and glucose were significant predictors of diabetes. Predicted probabilities derived from a simple model fitted with sex, family history of diabetes and obesity ranged from 0.05 to 0.64 in men and 0.03 to 0.49 in women. To predict the onset of diabetes, area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AROC) of predicted probabilities was 0.62 (95% confidence interval, 0.56-0.68) in men and 0.64 (0.59-0.69) in women. At a cut-off point of 0.12, the sensitivity and specificity were 0.72 (0.71-0.74) and 0.47 (0.45-0.49) in men and 0.77 (0.75-0.78) and 0.50 (0.48-0.52) in women, respectively. Addition of fasting plasma glucose (FPG) to the model improved the prediction slightly [AROC curve 0.70 (0.65-0.76) in men, 0.71 (0.67-0.76) in women].

CONCLUSIONS

A diabetes prediction model based on obesity and family history yielded moderate discrimination in Mauritian Indians, which was slightly inferior to the model with the FPG but may be useful in low-income countries to promote identification of people at high risk of diabetes.

Evaluating the impact of a national pilot screening programme for type 2 diabetes in deprived areas of England

BACKGROUND

A pilot programme designed to systematically screen for type 2 diabetes was introduced in 24 general practices in England selected for their high levels of socio-economic deprivation and multi-ethnic populations.

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the impact of screening on the prevalence of type 2 diabetes.

METHODS

A prospective audit of screening activity in pilot practices and comparison of the change in prevalence of diabetes in pilot and comparison practices were conducted.

RESULTS

Of 41,400 individuals invited for screening from a population of 165,828 in pilot practices, 25,356 (61%) were screened. Three hundred and fifty-eight (0.22%) new cases of diabetes were detected among those screened. Only 69% of those with a positive screening test had diagnostic testing recorded and only 19% had a record of an oral glucose tolerance test. The absolute increase in the prevalence of diagnosed diabetes was 0.53% in pilot practices and 0.42% in comparison practices.

CONCLUSIONS

The 'real world' nature of the programme and dependence on routine data collection systems makes results more difficult to interpret but also enabled problems with implementation, not evident from previous research, to be identified. It is likely that the low diagnostic yield was largely due to a high level of ad hoc screening activity outside the pilot protocol and inadequate access to diagnostic testing after a positive screening test. In particular, implementation of screening for diabetes in primary care should not be undertaken without robust assessment of the resources required for diagnostic testing and follow-up and adequate clinical audit.

Implementing a national quality assurance system for diabetes care: the Scottish Diabetes Survey 2001-2006

AIM

To create a standardized systematic quality assurance system for diabetes care throughout Scotland.

METHODS

Each of 15 National Health Service (NHS) boards have submitted core diabetes data for a nationally agreed data specification on an annual basis since 2001. These data are collated to produce an annual national report. We describe the iterative progress of the work in obtaining and analysing this information. The setting was Scotland, with a population of 5 million.

RESULTS

In Scotland in 2006, 196,801 people (3.9% of the population) were reported as having diabetes compared with 105,777 in 2001. In 2006 the prevalence of reported diabetes varied from 3.5 to 4.4% in different NHS board areas, reflecting variation in completeness of local registers as well as different demographic patterns. The completeness of recording of many clinical parameters has also increased. (2002 data n = 103,755: diagnosis date 77%, HbA(1c), blood pressure and cholesterol within 15 months 71, 67 and 60%, respectively, increasing to 98, 87, 89 and 85% by 2006, n = 196,801.) A national information management and technology solution (Scottish Collaborative Information-Diabetes Care), involving automatic daily collection of data from routinely used systems both in primary and secondary care, is now used to co-ordinate the collection of data in all NHS board areas.

CONCLUSIONS

We have used routine data to estimate the prevalence of reported diabetes in Scotland, UK. This iterative approach to quality improvement has taken 6 years to achieve a baseline measure of care. There is potential to analyse these data further for a better understanding of the epidemiology of diabetes in Scotland. The national diabetes information technology system will contribute to this process.

Maternal obesity, length of gestation, risk of postdates pregnancy and spontaneous onset of labour at term

OBJECTIVE

To investigate the effect of maternal body mass index (BMI) on postdates pregnancy, length of gestation and likelihood of spontaneous onset of labour at term.

DESIGN

Retrospective cohort study.

SETTING

Swedish Medical Birth Register.

POPULATION

A total of 186 087 primiparous women (of whom 143 519 had spontaneous onset of labour at term) who gave birth between 1998 and 2002.

METHODS

Mann-Whitney test, one-way analysis of variance, linear regression and single variable logistic regression.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Postdates pregnancy (>/=294 days or 42(+0) weeks), length of gestation and likelihood of spontaneous onset of labour at term.

RESULTS

About 6.8% of pregnancies delivered postdates. Higher maternal BMI (kg/m(2)) during the first trimester was associated with longer gestation (P < 0.001) as was a greater change in BMI between the first and third trimesters (BMI measured on admission prior to delivery) with mean (SD) gestation at delivery of 280.7 (8.6) and 283.2 (8.6) days for increases in BMI of <2 and >/=10 kg/m(2), respectively. Higher BMI during the first trimester was associated with a lower chance of spontaneous onset of labour at term. Compared with BMI 20 to <25 kg/m(2), the odds ratios (95% CI) for spontaneous onset of labour at term were 1.21 (1.15-1.27) for BMI of <20 kg/m(2), 0.71 (0.69-0.74) for BMI of 25 to <30 kg/m(2), 0.57 (0.54-0.60) for BMI of 30 to <35 kg/m(2) and 0.43 (0.40-0.47) for BMI of >/=35 kg/m(2). Higher BMI during the first trimester (BMI of >/=35 kg/m(2) compared with BMI of 20 to <25 kg/m(2)) was also associated with an increased risk of complications including stillbirth (OR 3.90, 95% CI 2.44-6.22), gestational diabetes (OR 5.61, 95% CI 4.61-6.83) and caesarean section (OR 2.39; 95% CI 2.20-2.59).

CONCLUSIONS

Higher maternal BMI in the first trimester and a greater change in BMI during pregnancy were associated with longer gestation and an increased risk of postdates pregnancy. Higher maternal BMI during the first trimester was also associated with decreased likelihood of spontaneous onset of labour at term and increased likelihood of complications.

Impact of deprivation on cardiovascular risk factors in people with diabetes: an observational study

AIM

To examine the influence of deprivation on prevalence of diabetes and of cardiovascular disease risk factors in people with diabetes.

METHODS

Cross-sectional study of 52 280 people in diabetes registers of Greater Glasgow and Lothian NHS Board areas linked to hospital admission data. Results Age- and sex-adjusted prevalence of diabetes increased from 2.3% in the least deprived quintile (Q1) to 3.3% in the most deprived quintile (Q5; P < 0.001), as did prevalence of vascular disease (Q1 20%, Q5 27%; P < 0.001). Prevalence of current smoking (Q1 13%, Q5 32%; P < 0.001), obesity (Q1 38%, Q5 51%; P < 0.001) and above-target glycated haemoglobin (HbA(1c); > or = 7.5%: Q1 46% vs. Q5 47%; P = 0.01) were higher in the most deprived quintile. In contrast, the proportion of people with above-target cholesterol were similar (proportion > or = 5.0 mmol/l: Q1 26%, Q5 24%; P = 0.07) and the proportion of people with above-target systolic blood pressure (SBP) was lower (SBP > or = 140 mmHg: Q1 44%, Q5 37%; P = 0.02) in the most deprived quintile. In people with diabetes and prevalent vascular disease, deprivation was associated with failure to reach cholesterol target [odds ratio cholesterol > or = 5.0 mmol/l: Q5 vs. Q1 1.23 (1.04-1.45) P = 0.013]. SBP and cholesterol were markedly lower compared with previous population surveys.

CONCLUSIONS

The burden of diabetes and vascular disease is greater in more deprived populations. Our data confirm a major advance in management of cholesterol and blood pressure management. Deprivation is still associated with failure to reach cholesterol targets in secondary prevention as well as higher prevalence of obesity and smoking.