Recent advances in addressing the market failure of new antimicrobials: Learnings from NICE's subscription-style payment model

Background

Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) is a growing threat to global health. With pathogenic bacteria inevitably becoming more resistant to existing antimicrobials, mortality and costs due to AMR will significantly increase over the next few decades if adequate action is not taken. A major challenge in addressing AMR is the lack of financial incentives for manufacturers to invest in developing new antimicrobials. This is partly because current approaches in health technology assessment (HTA) and standard modeling methods fail to capture the full value of antimicrobials.

Aim

We explore recent reimbursement and payment frameworks, particularly pull incentives, aimed to address the market failures in antimicrobials. We focus on the "subscription-style" payment model recently used in the UK and discuss the learnings for other European countries.

Methods

A pragmatic literature review was conducted to identify recent initiatives and frameworks between 2012 and 2021, across seven European markets. The National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) technology appraisals for cefiderocol and for ceftazidime with avibactam were reviewed to evaluate how the new UK model has been applied in practice and identify the key challenges.

Conclusion

The UK and Sweden are the first European countries to pilot the feasibility of implementing pull incentives through fully and partially delinked payment models, respectively. The NICE appraisals highlighted the complexity and large areas of uncertainty of modeling antimicrobials. If HTA and value-based pricing are part of the future in tackling the market failure in AMR, European-level efforts may be needed to overcome some of the key challenges.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of carbetocin versus oxytocin for the prevention of postpartum hemorrhage following vaginal birth in the United Kingdom

AIMS

To assess the cost-effectiveness of carbetocin versus oxytocin for the prevention of postpartum hemorrhage (PPH) following vaginal birth from the perspective of the UK National Health Service (NHS).

MATERIALS AND METHODS

A decision tree model was designed to analyze the cost per PPH event avoided associated with utilizing carbetocin versus oxytocin for prophylactic treatment of PPH in women following vaginal birth from a UK perspective. It modelled the potential for women to require an additional uterotonic after prophylaxis, and to still experience a PPH event and receive associated treatment. Inpatient recovery and follow-up periods post-PPH were also included in the model. Costs associated with drug acquisition and administration, PPH management (i.e. additional staffing and possible operating theater and high dependency unit utilization), inpatient hospitalization, and follow-up visits were all considered. Adverse event management costs were not included. Resource utilization varied depending on the severity of the PPH event (as defined by the amount of blood lost). PPH events avoided were estimated. In an exploratory analysis, quality adjusted life years (QALYs) were estimated as well.

RESULTS

In the deterministic base case, costs were £55 lower and PPH events were 0.0342 lower per woman with carbetocin use compared to oxytocin use. Across the cohort of 100 women the reduction in PPH events led to the largest cost savings (£4,233 saved) out of all cost categories, with total cost savings of £5,495. Carbetocin utilization amongst the entire cohort led to 3.42 avoided PPH events compared to oxytocin utilization, comprised of 3.03 fewer mild/moderate PPH events and 0.39 fewer severe PPH events. Carbetocin utilization led to 0.0001 additional QALYs per woman.

CONCLUSION

Carbetocin utilization leads to lower prophylactic treatment costs and less PPH events versus oxytocin when utilized for the prevention of PPH following vaginal birth in the UK.

Estimating the Natural History of Cervical Carcinogenesis Using Simulation Models: A CISNET Comparative Analysis

BACKGROUND

The natural history of human papillomavirus (HPV)-induced cervical cancer (CC) is not directly observable, yet the age of HPV acquisition and duration of preclinical disease (dwell time) influences the effectiveness of alternative preventive policies. We performed a Cancer Intervention and Surveillance Modeling Network (CISNET) comparative modeling analysis to characterize the age of acquisition of cancer-causing HPV infections and implied dwell times for distinct phases of cervical carcinogenesis.

METHODS

Using four CISNET-cervical models with varying underlying structures but fit to common US epidemiological data, we estimated the age of acquisition of causal HPV infections and dwell times associated with three phases of cancer development: HPV, high-grade precancer, and cancer sojourn time. We stratified these estimates by HPV genotype under both natural history and CC screening scenarios, because screening prevents cancer development that affects the mix of detected cancers.

RESULTS

The median time from HPV acquisition to cancer detection ranged from 17.5 to 26.0 years across the four models. Three models projected that 50% of unscreened women acquired their causal HPV infection between ages 19 and 23 years, whereas one model projected these infections occurred later (age 34 years). In the context of imperfect compliance with US screening guidelines, the median age of causal infection was 4.4-15.9 years later compared with model projections in the absence of screening.

CONCLUSIONS

These validated CISNET-CC models, which reflect some uncertainty in the development of CC, elucidate important drivers of HPV vaccination and CC screening policies and emphasize the value of comparative modeling when evaluating public health policies.

Cost-effectiveness of pembrolizumab compared with chemotherapy in the US for women with previously treated deficient mismatch repair or high microsatellite instability unresectable or metastatic endometrial cancer

AIMS

There is limited published evidence for the cost-effectiveness of treatments for unresectable or metastatic endometrial cancer (mEC). The objective of this analysis was to assess the cost-effectiveness of pembrolizumab versus chemotherapy for previously treated unresectable or mEC, in women whose tumors have deficient mismatch repair (dMMR) or high microsatellite instability (MSI-H). The analysis was carried out from a US healthcare payer perspective.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

A lifetime partitioned survival model comprising three health states (progression-free, progressed disease and death) was constructed. Chemotherapy was represented by single-agent paclitaxel or doxorubicin. Overall survival, progression-free survival and time on treatment data for pembrolizumab were obtained from a Phase II clinical study that included women with previously treated dMMR/MSI-H unresectable or mEC (KEYNOTE-158, NCT02628067). Survival data for chemotherapy were obtained from a published Phase III study for previously treated advanced endometrial cancer. Costs included were drug acquisition and administration, health-state, end-of-life, and adverse event management. Costs were presented in 2019 US$. Outcomes were calculated as quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), using EQ-5D data from KEYNOTE-158. Model results were tested extensively in deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses.

RESULTS

Results demonstrated that pembrolizumab is a highly cost-effective treatment option when compared with chemotherapy, with estimated deterministic and probabilistic incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) of $58,165 and $57,668 per QALY gained, respectively. Pembrolizumab was associated with a large QALY and life-year gain per person versus chemotherapy over the model time horizon (deterministic 4.68 life year gain, 3.80 QALYs), with the majority of QALYs accrued in the progression-free health state.

LIMITATIONS

The key limitation of the analysis was the lack of comparative effectiveness data for pembrolizumab versus chemotherapy.

CONCLUSIONS

Pembrolizumab is a highly cost-effective treatment option when compared with chemotherapy for women with previously treated dMMR/MSI-H unresectable or mEC. Results were robust to the changes in parameters and assumptions explored.