Discovery and validation of a personalized risk predictor for incident tuberculosis in low transmission settings

The risk of tuberculosis (TB) is variable among individuals with latent Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection (LTBI), but validated estimates of personalized risk are lacking. In pooled data from 18 systematically identified cohort studies from 20 countries, including 80,468 individuals tested for LTBI, 5-year cumulative incident TB risk among people with untreated LTBI was 15.6% (95% confidence interval (CI), 8.0-29.2%) among child contacts, 4.8% (95% CI, 3.0-7.7%) among adult contacts, 5.0% (95% CI, 1.6-14.5%) among migrants and 4.8% (95% CI, 1.5-14.3%) among immunocompromised groups. We confirmed highly variable estimates within risk groups, necessitating an individualized approach to risk stratification. Therefore, we developed a personalized risk predictor for incident TB (PERISKOPE-TB) that combines a quantitative measure of T cell sensitization and clinical covariates. Internal-external cross-validation of the model demonstrated a random effects meta-analysis C-statistic of 0.88 (95% CI, 0.82-0.93) for incident TB. In decision curve analysis, the model demonstrated clinical utility for targeting preventative treatment, compared to treating all, or no, people with LTBI. We challenge the current crude approach to TB risk estimation among people with LTBI in favor of our evidence-based and patient-centered method, in settings aiming for pre-elimination worldwide.

QuantiFERON–TB Gold In-Tube test performance in Denmark

BACKGROUND

Little is known about the QuantiFERON-TB Gold In-Tube Test (QFT) in extreme age groups. The test performance has been reported to be impaired in children and elderly, but reports are diverging. The aim of this study was to evaluate QFT performance in patients with and without Tuberculosis (TB).

METHODS

A retrospective study analysing the results of 18,850 QFT performed in Denmark 2005-2010. The effect of age, sex, localisation of TB, and result of culture on QFT performance (positive, negative and indeterminate results) was determined.

RESULTS

Among 383 patients with TB, indeterminate rate was low (3.9%, 15/383). Sensitivity was high (86.1%, 317/368) and not affected by sex or localization of TB disease, but declined with increasing age (p < 0.0001). In children 1-4 years old, sensitivity was high (100%, 9/9). Among 15,709 persons without TB, the indeterminate rate was 5.1% (804/15,709) and significantly higher in infants <1 year (15.6%, 5/32) and elderly >65 years (8.1%, 219/2715) compared to the adult population 15-64 years (4.5%, 552/12,317). Indeterminate results were due to a low positive control in 99.6% (801/804).

CONCLUSION

In Denmark, a TB low incidence country, the overall QFT performance was good. The sensitivity in children (≥ 1) was high although few children were included, whereas sensitivity declined with increasing age. Indeterminate rates were higher in infants and elderly. In contrast to current guidelines, our data suggest that the QFT performs well in children ≥ 1 years in low endemic regions but that the test should be used with care among the elderly.