Discovery and validation of a personalized risk predictor for incident tuberculosis in low transmission settings

Effectiveness of preventive treatment among different age groups and Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection status: a systematic review and individual-participant data meta-analysis of contact tracing studies

BACKGROUND

Tuberculosis is a preventable disease. However, there is debate regarding which individuals would benefit most from tuberculosis preventive treatment and whether these benefits vary in settings with a high burden and low burden of tuberculosis. We aimed to compare the effectiveness of tuberculosis preventive treatment in exposed individuals of differing ages and Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection status while considering tuberculosis burden of the settings.

METHODS

In this systematic review and individual-participant meta-analysis, we investigated the development of incident tuberculosis in people closely exposed to individuals with tuberculosis. We searched for studies published between Jan 1, 1998, and April 6, 2018, in MEDLINE, Web of Science, BIOSIS, and Embase. We restricted our search to cohort studies; case-control studies and outbreak reports were excluded. Two reviewers evaluated titles, abstracts, and full text articles for eligibility. At each stage, two reviewers discussed discrepancies and re-evaluated articles until a consensus was reached. Individual-participant data and a pre-specified list of variables, including characteristics of the exposed contact, the index patient, and environmental characteristics, were requested from authors of all eligible studies; contacts exposed to a drug-resistant tuberculosis index patient were excluded. The primary study outcome was incident tuberculosis. We estimated adjusted hazard ratios (aHRs) for incident tuberculosis with mixed-effects Cox regression models with a study-level random effect. We estimated the number-needed-to-treat (NNT) to prevent one person developing tuberculosis. Propensity score matching procedures were used in all analyses. This study is registered with PROSPERO (CRD42018087022).

FINDINGS

After screening 25 358 records for eligibility, 439 644 participants from 32 cohort studies were included in the individual-participant data meta-analysis. Participants were followed for 1 396 413 person-years (median of 2·7 years [IQR 1·3-4.4]), during which 2496 people were diagnosed with incident tuberculosis. Overall, effectiveness of preventive treatment was 49% (aHR 0·51 [95% CI 0·44-0·60]). Participants with a positive tuberculin-skin-test (TST) or IFNγ release assay (IGRA) result at baseline benefitted from greater protection, regardless of age (0·09 [0·05-0·17] in children younger than 5 years, 0·20 [0·15-0·28] in individuals aged 5-17 years, and 0·17 [0·13-0·22] in adults aged 18 years and older). The effectiveness of preventive treatment was greater in high-burden (0·31 [0·23-0·40]) versus low-burden (0·58 [0·47-0·72]) settings. The NNT ranged from 9 to 34 depending on age among participants with a positive TST or IGRA in both high-burden and low-burden settings; among all contacts (regardless of TST or IGRA test result), the NNT ranged from 29 to 43 in high-burden settings and 213 to 455 in low-burden settings.

INTERPRETATION

Our findings suggest that a risk-targeted strategy prioritising contacts with evidence of M tuberculosis infection might be indicated in low-burden settings, and a broad approach including all contacts should be considered in high-burden settings. Preventive treatment was similarly effective among contacts of all ages.

FUNDING

None.

Recent Travel and Tuberculosis in Migrants: Data From a Low-Incidence Country

Tuberculosis (TB) incidence rates among migrants are higher than those in low-incidence countries. We evaluated smear-positive, pulmonary TB notifications of foreign-born individuals, comparing time since arrival and time since last return travel to the country of origin. TB incidence suggests a time course consistent with recent infection during travel.

Prevalence estimates of tuberculosis infection in adults in Denmark: a retrospective nationwide register-based cross-sectional study, 2010 to 2018

BackgroundTuberculosis (TB) elimination requires identifying and treating persons with TB infection (TBI).AimWe estimate the prevalence of positive interferon gamma release assay (IGRA) tests (including TB) and TBI (excluding TB) in Denmark based on TBI screening data from patients with inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) or inflammatory rheumatic disease (IRD).MethodsUsing nationwide Danish registries, we included all patients with IBD or IRD with an IGRA test performed between 2010 and 2018. We estimated the prevalence of TBI and positive IGRA with 95% confidence intervals (CI) in adolescents and adults aged 15-64 years after sample weighting adjusting for distortions in the sample from the background population of Denmark for sex, age group and TB incidence rates (IR) in country of birth.ResultsIn 13,574 patients with IBD or IRD, 12,892 IGRA tests (95.0%) were negative, 461 (3.4%) were positive and 221 (1.6%) were indeterminate, resulting in a weighted TBI prevalence of 3.2% (95% CI: 2.9-3.5) and weighted positive IGRA prevalence of 3.8% (95% CI: 3.5-4.2) among adults aged 15-64 years in the background population of Denmark. Unweighted TBI prevalence increased with age and birthplace in countries with a TB IR higher than 10/100,000 population.ConclusionEstimated TBI prevalence is low in Denmark. We estimate that 200,000 persons have TBI and thus are at risk of developing TB. Screening for TBI and preventive treatment, especially in persons born in high TB incidence countries or immunosuppressed, are crucial to reduce the risk of and eliminate TB.

Screening for tuberculosis infection and effectiveness of preventive treatment among people with HIV in low-incidence settings

OBJECTIVE

To determine the yield of screening for latent tuberculosis infection (LTBI) among people with HIV (PWH) in low tuberculosis (TB) incidence countries (<10 TB cases per 100 000 persons).

DESIGN

A systematic review and meta-analysis were performed to assess prevalence and predictive factors of LTBI, rate of TB progression, effect of TB preventive treatment (TPT), and numbers needed to screen (NNS).

METHODS

PubMed and Cochrane Library were searched for studies reporting primary data, excluding studies on active or paediatric TB. We extracted LTBI cases, odds ratios, and TB incidences; pooled estimates using a random-effects model; and used the Newcastle-Ottawa scale for bias.

RESULTS

In 51 studies with 65 930 PWH, 12% [95% confidence interval (CI) 10-14] had a positive LTBI test, which was strongly associated with origin from a TB-endemic country [odds ratio (OR) 4.7] and exposure to TB (OR 2.9). Without TPT (10 629 PWH), TB incidence was 28/1000 person-years (PY; 95% CI 12-45) for LTBI-test positive versus 4/1000 PY (95% CI 0-7) for LTBI-test-negative individuals. Among 625 PWH (1644 PY) receiving TPT, 15 developed TB (6/1000 PY). An estimated 20 LTBI-positive individuals would need TPT to prevent one case of TB, and numbers NNS to detect LTBI or prevent active TB varied according to a-priori risk of LTBI.

CONCLUSION

The relatively high prevalence of LTBI among PWH and the strong correlation with origin from a TB-endemic country support risk-stratified LTBI screening strategies for PWH in low-incidence countries and treating those who test positive.

The prevalence of tuberculosis infection among foreign-born Canadians: a modelling study

BACKGROUND

The prevalence of tuberculosis infection is critical to the design of tuberculosis prevention strategies, yet is unknown in Canada. We estimated the prevalence of tuberculosis infection among Canadian residents born abroad.

METHODS

We estimated the prevalence of tuberculosis infection by age and year of migration to Canada for people from each of 168 countries by constructing country-specific and calendar year-specific trends for annual risk of infection using a previously developed model. We combined country-specific prevalence estimates with Canadian Census data from 2001, 2006, 2011, 2016 and 2021 to estimate the overall prevalence of tuberculosis infection among foreign-born Canadian residents.

RESULTS

The estimated overall prevalence of tuberculosis infection among foreign-born people in Canada was 25% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 20%-35%) for census year 2001, 24% (95% UI 20%-33%) for 2006, 23% (95% UI 19%-30%) for 2011, 22% (95% UI 19%-28%) for 2016 and 22% (95% UI 19%-27%) for 2021. The prevalence increased with age at migration and incidence of tuberculosis in the country of origin. In 2021, the estimated prevalence of infection among foreign-born residents was lowest in Quebec (19%, 95% UI 16%-24%) and highest in Alberta (24%, 95% UI 21%-28%) and British Columbia (24%, 95% UI 20%-30%). Among all foreign-born Canadian residents with tuberculosis infection in 2021, we estimated that only 1 in 488 (95% UI 185-1039) had become infected within the 2 preceding years.

INTERPRETATION

About 1 in 4 foreign-born Canadian residents has tuberculosis infection, but very few were infected within the 2 preceding years (the highest risk period for progression to tuberculosis disease). These data may inform future tuberculosis infection screening policies.

Tuberculosis prevention: current strategies and future directions

BACKGROUND

An estimated one fourth of the world's population is infected with Mycobacterium tuberculosis, and 5-10% of those infected develop tuberculosis in their lifetime. Preventing tuberculosis is one of the most underutilized but essential components of curtailing the tuberculosis epidemic. Moreover, current evidence illustrates that tuberculosis manifestations occur along a dynamic spectrum from infection to disease rather than a binary state as historically conceptualized. Elucidating determinants of transition between these states is crucial to decreasing the tuberculosis burden and reaching the END-TB Strategy goals as defined by the WHO. Vaccination, detection of infection, and provision of preventive treatment are key elements of tuberculosis prevention.

OBJECTIVES

This review provides a comprehensive summary of recent evidence and state-of-the-art updates on advancements to prevent tuberculosis in various settings and high-risk populations.

SOURCES

We identified relevant studies in the literature and synthesized the findings to provide an overview of the current state of tuberculosis prevention strategies and latest research developments.

CONTENT

We present the current knowledge and recommendations regarding tuberculosis prevention, with a focus on M. bovis Bacille-Calmette-Guérin vaccination and novel vaccine candidates, tests for latent infection with M. tuberculosis, regimens available for tuberculosis preventive treatment and recommendations in low- and high-burden settings.

IMPLICATIONS

Effective tuberculosis prevention worldwide requires a multipronged approach that addresses social determinants, and improves access to tuberculosis detection and to new short tuberculosis preventive treatment regimens. Robust collaboration and innovative research are needed to reduce the global burden of tuberculosis and develop new detection tools, vaccines, and preventive treatments that serve all populations and ages.

Tuberculosis Case Detection and Guideline Adherence among Child Contacts in Switzerland: A Retrospective Observational Study

BACKGROUND

Children exposed to a tuberculosis (TB) index case are at risk of TB infection and disease.

OBJECTIVES

The aim of this study was to describe the proportion of child contacts who developed TB infection or disease after exposure and to assess the diagnostic pathways and adherence to current guidelines.

METHODS

Retrospective observational study including children ≤16 years of age who had contact to a TB index case between January 2019 and July 2021. Analysis was stratified by age groups 0-4, 5-11, and 12-16 years.

RESULTS

Of 401 TB-exposed children, data were available for 380 (95%). Of those, 7 (2%) were diagnosed with TB disease and 35 (9%) with TB infection. We identified several deviations in the management compared to recommendations in national Swiss guidelines: In the children aged 0-4 years, only 82% were examined with an immunodiagnostic test or a chest radiography within 2 weeks after last contact. Recommended prophylactic treatment was prescribed in 66% of the children only. In the children aged 5-11 years, 64% were tested with an immunodiagnostic test in a first examination and 75% in a second examination, 2 weeks and 2 months after last contact, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Contact investigations of children exposed to a TB index case identified a significant proportion of children with TB infection and disease in a low TB incidence setting. We observed significant deviations from the guidelines in the contact investigations suggesting the need for improved implementation.

Drivers determining tuberculosis disease screening yield in four European screening programmes: a comparative analysis

BACKGROUND

The World Health Organization End TB Strategy emphasises screening for early diagnosis of tuberculosis (TB) in high-risk groups, including migrants. We analysed key drivers of TB yield differences in four large migrant TB screening programmes to inform TB control planning and feasibility of a European approach.

METHODS

We pooled individual TB screening episode data from Italy, the Netherlands, Sweden and the UK, and analysed predictors and interactions for TB case yield using multivariable logistic regression models.

RESULTS

Between 2005 and 2018 in 2 302 260 screening episodes among 2 107 016 migrants to four countries, the programmes identified 1658 TB cases (yield 72.0 (95% CI 68.6-75.6) per 100 000). In logistic regression analysis, we found associations between TB screening yield and age (≥55 years: OR 2.91 (95% CI 2.24-3.78)), being an asylum seeker (OR 3.19 (95% CI 1.03-9.83)) or on a settlement visa (OR 1.78 (95% CI 1.57-2.01)), close TB contact (OR 12.25 (95% CI 11.73-12.79)) and higher TB incidence in the country of origin. We demonstrated interactions between migrant typology and age, as well as country of origin. For asylum seekers, the elevated TB risk remained similar above country of origin incidence thresholds of 100 per 100 000.

CONCLUSIONS

Key determinants of TB yield included close contact, increasing age, incidence in country of origin and specific migrant groups, including asylum seekers and refugees. For most migrants such as UK students and workers, TB yield significantly increased with levels of incidence in the country of origin. The high, country of origin-independent TB risk in asylum seekers above a 100 per 100 000 threshold could reflect higher transmission and re-activation risk of migration routes, with implications for selecting populations for TB screening.

Update on the diagnosis of tuberculosis

BACKGROUND

Tuberculosis (TB) remains a global public health threat, and the development of rapid and precise diagnostic tools is the key to enabling the early start of treatment, monitoring response to treatment, and preventing the spread of the disease.

OBJECTIVES

An overview of recent progress in host- and pathogen-based TB diagnostics.

SOURCES

We conducted a PubMed search of recent relevant articles and guidelines on TB screening and diagnosis.

CONTENT

An overview of currently used methods and perspectives in the following areas of TB diagnostics is provided: immune-based diagnostics, X-ray, clinical symptoms and scores, cough detection, culture of Mycobacterium tuberculosis and identifying its resistance profile using phenotypic and genotypic methods, including next-generation sequencing, sputum- and non-sputum-based molecular diagnosis of TB and monitoring of response to treatment.

IMPLICATIONS

A brief overview of the most relevant advances and changes in international guidelines regarding screening and diagnosing TB is provided in this review. It aims at reviewing all relevant areas of diagnostics, including both pathogen- and host-based methods.

[Treatment of tuberculosis: what is new?]

Never before have so many people around the world been simultaneously affected by tuberculosis. Tuberculosis is the leading cause of death from a bacterial infectious disease worldwide. The World Health Organization's ambitious goal from 2014 of achieving global elimination of tuberculosis does not seem realistic, but on current trends, tuberculosis could be eliminated in the European Union by 2040. Since the beginning of 2022, there have been more innovations for the treatment of tuberculosis than in no other comparable time period before. One month of rifapentine and isoniazid is effective in treating latent tuberculosis infection. However, rifapentine is licensed in the USA but not in the EU and must be imported for individual cases. The duration of the standard treatment for tuberculosis can be shortened to four months but this treatment regimen is also based on rifapentine, in addition to isoniazid, pyrazinamide, and moxifloxacin. The approval of rifapentine in Europe is a much-needed step towards shortening the treatment of tuberculosis. With new drugs an even shorter standard treatment of only 2 months is possible. The treatment of multidrug-resistant/rifampicin-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-/RR-TB) has been shortened to six months, the same length as the standard treatment available in Germany. The combination of bedaquiline, pretomanid, linezolid ± moxifloxacin, cured around 90% of affected patients were cured in studies with a treatment duration of six months. With 19 drugs in clinical trials, the treatment of tuberculosis is expected to continue to improve rapidly in the coming years.

A cost-effectiveness evaluation of latent tuberculosis infection screening of a migrant population in Malaysia

To estimate the costs and benefits of screening for latent tuberculosis infection (LTBI) in a migrant population in Malaysia. An economic model was developed from a Malaysian healthcare perspective to compare QuantiFERON-TB Gold Plus (QuantiFERON) with the tuberculin skin test (TST). A decision tree was used to capture outcomes relating to LTBI screening followed by a Markov model that simulated the lifetime costs and benefits of the patient cohort. The Markov model did not capture the impact of secondary infections. The model included an R shiny interactive interface to allow adaptation to other scenarios and settings. QuantiFERON is both more effective and less costly than TST (dominant). Compared with QuantiFERON, the lifetime risk of developing active TB increases by approximately 40% for TST due to missed LTBI cases during screening (i.e. a higher number of false negative cases for TST). For a migrant population in Malaysia, QuantiFERON is cost-effective when compared with TST. Further research should consider targeted LTBI screening for migrants in Malaysia based on common risk factors.

Predictive performance of interferon-gamma release assays and the tuberculin skin test for incident tuberculosis: an individual participant data meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Evidence on the comparative performance of purified protein derivative tuberculin skin tests (TST) and interferon-gamma release assays (IGRA) for predicting incident active tuberculosis (TB) remains conflicting. We conducted an individual participant data meta-analysis to directly compare the predictive performance for incident TB disease between TST and IGRA to inform policy.

METHODS

We searched Medline and Embase from 1 January 2002 to 4 September 2020, and studies that were included in previous systematic reviews. We included prospective longitudinal studies in which participants received both TST and IGRA and estimated performance as hazard ratios (HR) for the development of all diagnoses of TB in participants with dichotomised positive test results compared to negative results, using different thresholds of positivity for TST. Secondary analyses included an evaluation of the impact of background TB incidence. We also estimated the sensitivity and specificity for predicting TB. We explored heterogeneity through pre-defined sub-group analyses (e.g. country-level TB incidence). Publication bias was assessed using funnel plots and Egger's test. This review is registered with PROSPERO, CRD42020205667.

FINDINGS

We obtained data from 13 studies out of 40 that were considered eligible (N = 32,034 participants: 36% from countries with TB incidence rate ≥100 per 100,000 population). All reported data on TST and QuantiFERON Gold in-Tube (QFT-GIT). The point estimate for the TST was highest with higher cut-offs for positivity and particularly when stratified by bacillus Calmette-Guérin vaccine (BCG) status (15 mm if BCG vaccinated and 5 mm if not [TST^{5/15 mm}]) at 2.88 (95% CI 1.69-4.90). The pooled HR for QFT-GIT was higher than for TST at 4.15 (95% CI 1.97-8.75). The difference was large in countries with TB incidence rate <100 per 100,000 population (HR 10.38, 95% CI 4.17-25.87 for QFT-GIT VS. HR 5.36, 95% CI 3.82-7.51 for TST^{5/15 mm}) but much of this difference was driven by a single study (HR 5.13, 95% CI 3.58-7.35 for TST^{5/15 mm} VS. 7.18, 95% CI 4.48-11.51 for QFT-GIT, when excluding the study, in which all 19 TB cases had positive QFT-GIT results). The comparative performance was similar in the higher burden countries (HR 1.61, 95% CI 1.23-2.10 for QFT-GIT VS. HR 1.72, 95% CI 0.98-3.01 for TST^{5/15 mm}). The predictive performance of both tests was higher in countries with TB incidence rate <100 per 100,000 population. In the lower TB incidence countries, the specificity of TST (76% for TST^{5/15 mm}) and QFT-GIT (74%) for predicting active TB approached the minimum World Health Organization target (≥75%), but the sensitivity was below the target of ≥75% (63% for TST^{5/15 mm} and 65% for QFT-GIT). The absolute differences in positive and negative predictive values between TST^{15 mm} and QFT-GIT were small (positive predictive values 2.74% VS. 2.46%; negative predictive values 99.42% VS. 99.52% in low-incidence countries). Egger's test did not show evidence of publication bias (0.74 for TST^{15 mm} and p = 0.68 for QFT-GIT).

INTERPRETATION

IGRA appears to have higher predictive performance than the TST in low TB incidence countries, but the difference was driven by a single study. Any advantage in clinical performance may be small, given the numerically similar positive and negative predictive values. Both IGRA and TST had lower performance in countries with high TB incidence. Test choice should be contextual and made considering operational and likely clinical impact of test results.

FUNDING

YH, IA, and MXR were supported by the National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR), United Kingdom (RP-PG-0217-20009). MQ was supported by the Medical Research Council [MC_UU_00004/07].

Development of a prognostic nomogram and risk stratification system for upper thoracic esophageal squamous cell carcinoma

Background

The study aimed to develop a nomogram model to predict overall survival (OS) and construct a risk stratification system of upper thoracic esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC).

Methods

Newly diagnosed 568 patients with upper ESCC at Fujian Medical University Cancer Hospital were taken as a training cohort, and additional 155 patients with upper ESCC from Sichuan Cancer Hospital Institute were used as a validation cohort. A nomogram was established using Cox proportional hazard regression to identify prognostic factors for OS. The predictive power of nomogram model was evaluated by using 4 indices: concordance statistics (C-index), time-dependent ROC (ROCt) curve, net reclassification index (NRI) and integrated discrimination improvement (IDI).

Results

In this study, multivariate analysis revealed that gender, clinical T stage, clinical N stage and primary gross tumor volume were independent prognostic factors for OS in the training cohort. The nomogram based on these factors presented favorable prognostic efficacy in the both training and validation cohorts, with concordance statistics (C-index) of 0.622, 0.713, and area under the curve (AUC) value of 0.709, 0.739, respectively, which appeared superior to those of the American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) staging system. Additionally, net reclassification index (NRI) and integrated discrimination improvement (IDI) of the nomogram presented better discrimination ability to predict survival than those of AJCC staging. Furthermore, decision curve analysis (DCA) of the nomogram exhibited greater clinical performance than that of AJCC staging. Finally, the nomogram fairly distinguished the OS rates among low, moderate, and high risk groups, whereas the OS curves of clinical stage could not be well separated among clinical AJCC stage.

Conclusion

We built an effective nomogram model for predicting OS of upper ESCC, which may improve clinicians' abilities to predict individualized survival and facilitate to further stratify the management of patients at risk.

Can digital adherence technologies reduce inequity in tuberculosis treatment success? Evidence from a randomised controlled trial

INTRODUCTION

Tuberculosis (TB) is a global health emergency and low treatment adherence among patients is a major barrier to ending the TB epidemic. The WHO promotes digital adherence technologies (DATs) as facilitators for improving treatment adherence in resource-limited settings. However, limited research has investigated whether DATs improve outcomes for high-risk patients (ie, those with a high probability of an unsuccessful outcome), leading to concerns that DATs may cause intervention-generated inequality.

METHODS

We conducted secondary analyses of data from a completed individual-level randomised controlled trial in Nairobi, Kenya during 2016-2017, which evaluated the average intervention effect of a novel DAT-based behavioural support programme. We trained a causal forest model to answer three research questions: (1) Was the effect of the intervention heterogeneous across individuals? (2) Was the intervention less effective for high-risk patients? nd (3) Can differentiated care improve programme effectiveness and equity in treatment outcomes?

RESULTS

We found that individual intervention effects-the percentage point reduction in the likelihood of an unsuccessful treatment outcome-ranged from 4.2 to 12.4, with an average of 8.2. The intervention was beneficial for 76% of patients, and most beneficial for high-risk patients. Differentiated enrolment policies, targeted at high-risk patients, have the potential to (1) increase the average intervention effect of DAT services by up to 28.5% and (2) decrease the population average and standard deviation (across patients) of the probability of an unsuccessful treatment outcome by up to 8.5% and 31.5%, respectively.

CONCLUSION

This DAT-based intervention can improve outcomes among high-risk patients, reducing inequity in the likelihood of an unsuccessful treatment outcome. In resource-limited settings where universal provision of the intervention is infeasible, targeting high-risk patients for DAT enrolment is a worthwhile strategy for programmes that involve human support sponsors, enabling them to achieve the highest possible impact for high-risk patients at a substantially improved cost-effectiveness ratio.

Tuberkulose im Erwachsenenalter

Die Tuberkulose ist in Deutschland eine seltene, überwiegend gut behandelbare Erkrankung. Weltweit ist sie eine der häufigsten Infektionserkrankungen mit ca. 10 Millionen Neuerkrankungen/Jahr. Auch bei einer niedrigen Inzidenz in Deutschland bleibt Tuberkulose insbesondere aufgrund der internationalen Entwicklungen und Migrationsbewegungen eine wichtige Differenzialdiagnose. In Deutschland besteht, aufgrund der niedrigen Prävalenz der Erkrankung und der damit verbundenen abnehmenden klinischen Erfahrung, ein Informationsbedarf zu allen Aspekten der Tuberkulose und ihrer Kontrolle. Diese Leitlinie umfasst die mikrobiologische Diagnostik, die Grundprinzipien der Standardtherapie, die Behandlung verschiedener Organmanifestationen, den Umgang mit typischen unerwünschten Arzneimittelwirkungen, die Besonderheiten in der Diagnostik und Therapie resistenter Tuberkulose sowie die Behandlung bei TB-HIV-Koinfektion. Sie geht darüber hinaus auf Versorgungsaspekte und gesetzliche Regelungen wie auch auf die Diagnosestellung und präventive Therapie einer latenten tuberkulösen Infektion ein. Es wird ausgeführt, wann es der Behandlung durch spezialisierte Zentren bedarf.

Die Aktualisierung der S2k-Leitlinie „Tuberkulose im Erwachsenenalter“ soll allen in der Tuberkuloseversorgung Tätigen als Richtschnur für die Prävention, die Diagnose und die Therapie der Tuberkulose dienen und helfen, den heutigen Herausforderungen im Umgang mit Tuberkulose in Deutschland gewachsen zu sein.

Testing and Treating Mycobacterium tuberculosis Infection

After infection with Mycobacterium tuberculosis, a minority of individuals will progress to tuberculosis disease (TB). The risk is higher among persons with well-established risk factors and within the first year after infection. Testing and treating individuals at high risk of progression maximizes the benefits of TB preventive therapy; avoiding testing of low-risk persons will limit potential harms. Several treatment options are available; rifamycin-based regimens offer the best efficacy-safety balance. In this review, we present an overview of the diagnosis and treatment of TB infection, and summarize common clinical scenarios.

Testing and Scaling Interventions to Improve the Tuberculosis Infection Care Cascade

Tuberculosis (TB) preventive therapy (TPT) is increasingly recognized as the key to eliminating tuberculosis globally and is particularly critical for children with TB infection or who are in close contact with individuals with infectious TB. But many barriers currently impede successful scale-up to provide TPT to those at high risk of TB disease. The cascade of care in TB infection (and the related contact management cascade) is a conceptual framework to evaluate and improve the care of persons who are potential candidates for TPT. This review summarizes recent literature on barriers and solutions in the TB infection care cascade, focusing on children in both high- and low-burden settings, and drawing from studies on children and adults. Identifying and closing gaps in the care cascade will require the implementation of tools that are new (e.g. computer-assisted radiography) and old (e.g. efficient contact tracing), and will be aided by innovative implementation study designs, quality improvement methods, and shared clinical practice with primary care providers.

Personalized risk predictor for acute cellular rejection in lung transplant using soluble CD31

We evaluated the contribution of artificial intelligence in predicting the risk of acute cellular rejection (ACR) using early plasma levels of soluble CD31 (sCD31) in combination with recipient haematosis, which was measured by the ratio of arterial oxygen partial pressure to fractional oxygen inspired (PaO₂/FiO₂) and respiratory SOFA (Sequential Organ Failure Assessment) within 3 days of lung transplantation (LTx). CD31 is expressed on endothelial cells, leukocytes and platelets and acts as a "peace-maker" at the blood/vessel interface. Upon nonspecific activation, CD31 can be cleaved, released, and detected in the plasma (sCD31). The study included 40 lung transplant recipients, seven (17.5%) of whom experienced ACR. We modelled the plasma levels of sCD31 as a nonlinear dependent variable of the PaO₂/FiO₂ and respiratory SOFA over time using multivariate and multimodal models. A deep convolutional network classified the time series models of each individual associated with the risk of ACR to each individual in the cohort.

The Coronavirus Footprint on Dual-Task Performance in Post-Acute Patients after Severe COVID-19: A Future Challenge for Rehabilitation

Recent studies suggest that also the non-critical form of COVID-19 infection may be associated with executive function impairments. However, it is not clear if they result from cognitive impairments or by COVID-19 infection per se. We aimed to investigate if patients in the post-acute stage of severe COVID-19 (PwCOVID), without manifest cognitive deficits, reveal impairments in performing dual-task (DT) activities compared to healthy controls (HS). We assessed balance in 31 PwCOVID vs. 30 age-matched HS by stabilometry and the Timed Up and Go (TUG) test with/without a cognitive DT. The DT cost (DTC), TUG test time and sway oscillations were recorded; correct cognitive responses (CCR) were calculated to evaluate cognitive performance. Results show a significant difference in overall DT performance between PwCOVID and HS in both stabilometry (p < 0.01) and the TUG test (p < 0.0005), although with similar DTCs. The main difference in the DTs between groups emerged in the CCR (effect size > 0.8). Substantially, PwCOVID gave priority to the motor task, leaving out the cognitive one, while HS performed both tasks simultaneously. Our findings suggest that PwCOVID, even without a manifest cognitive impairment, may present a deficit in executive function during DTs. These results encourage the use of DTs and CCR in PwCOVID.

Does BCG vaccination protect against infection with M. tuberculosis?

BACKGROUND:

Protection against infection by the bacille Calmette-Guérin vaccine against Mycobacterium tuberculosis remains a subject of controversy. We investigated the association between BCG vaccination at birth and infection by M. tuberculosis.

MATERIAL AND METHODS:

This was a secondary analysis of data from tuberculin skin test (TST) surveys in Vietnamese schoolchildren between 1988 and 2001. We investigated whether a BCG scar was associated with a lower prevalence of TST positivity, adjusting for BCG-induced variation by varying cut-off values for a positive TST.

RESULTS:

We found a positive association between BCG scar and TST positivity. The strength of the association decreased with increasing TST cut-off values; however, it never inverted significantly, irrespective of geographic region and survey year.

CONCLUSION:

In Vietnam, BCG vaccination was not associated with reduced M. tuberculosis infection prevalence as measured using TST. This in contrary to a similar study conducted in Tanzania. These contradictory findings may be explained by geographical differences and the relatively high prevalence in Vietnam of the M. tuberculosis Beijing genotype, which is reported to be capable of circumventing BCG-induced immunity.

Impact and benefit-cost ratio of a program for the management of latent tuberculosis infection among refugees in a region of Canada

Introduction

The identification and treatment of latent tuberculosis infection (LTBI) among immigrants from high-incidence regions who move to low-incidence countries is generally considered an ineffective strategy because only ≈14% of them comply with the multiple steps of the ‘cascade of care’ and complete treatment. In the Estrie region of Canada, a refugee clinic was opened in 2009. One of its goals is LTBI management.

Methods

Key components of this intervention included: close collaboration with community organizations, integration within a comprehensive package of medical care for the whole family, timely delivery following arrival, shorter treatment through preferential use of rifampin, and risk-based selection of patients to be treated. Between 2009–2020, 5131 refugees were evaluated. To determine the efficacy and benefit-cost ratio of this intervention, records of refugees seen in 2010–14 (n = 1906) and 2018–19 (n = 1638) were reviewed. Cases of tuberculosis (TB) among our foreign-born population occurring before (1997–2008) and after (2009–2020) setting up the clinic were identified. All costs associated with TB or LTBI were measured.

Results

Out of 441 patients offered LTBI treatment, 374 (85%) were compliant. Adding other losses, overall compliance was 69%. To prevent one case of TB, 95.1 individuals had to be screened and 11.9 treated, at a cost of $16,056. After discounting, each case of TB averted represented $32,631, for a benefit-cost ratio of 2.03. Among nationals of the 20 countries where refugees came from, incidence of TB decreased from 68.2 (1997–2008) to 26.3 per 100,000 person-years (2009–2020). Incidence among foreign-born persons from all other countries not targeted by the intervention did not change.

Conclusions

Among refugees settling in our region, 69% completed the LTBI cascade of care, leading to a 61% reduction in TB incidence. This intervention was cost-beneficial. Current defeatism towards LTBI management among immigrants and refugees is misguided. Compliance can be enhanced through simple measures.

The effect of host factors on discriminatory performance of a transcriptomic signature of tuberculosis risk

Background

We aimed to understand host factors that affect discriminatory performance of a transcriptomic signature of tuberculosis risk (RISK11).

Methods

HIV-negative adults aged 18–60 years were evaluated in a prospective study of RISK11 and surveilled for tuberculosis through 15 months. Generalised linear models and receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) regression were used to estimate effect of host factors on RISK11 score (%marginal effect) and on discriminatory performance for tuberculosis disease (area under the curve, AUC), respectively.

Findings

Among 2923 participants including 74 prevalent and 56 incident tuberculosis cases, percentage marginal effects on RISK11 score were increased among those with prevalent tuberculosis (+18·90%, 95%CI 12·66−25·13), night sweats (+14·65%, 95%CI 5·39−23·91), incident tuberculosis (+7·29%, 95%CI 1·46−13·11), flu-like symptoms (+5·13%, 95%CI 1·58−8·68), and smoking history (+2·41%, 95%CI 0·89−3·93) than those without; and reduced in males (−6·68%, 95%CI −8·31−5·04) and with every unit increase in BMI (−0·13%, −95%CI −0·25−0·01). Adjustment for host factors affecting controls did not change RISK11 discriminatory performance. Cough was associated with 72·55% higher RISK11 score in prevalent tuberculosis cases. Stratification by cough improved diagnostic performance from AUC = 0·74 (95%CI 0·67−0·82) overall, to 0·97 (95%CI 0·90−1·00, p < 0·001) in cough-positive participants. Combining host factors with RISK11 improved prognostic performance, compared to RISK11 alone, (AUC = 0·76, 95%CI 0·69−0·83 versus 0·56, 95%CI 0·46−0·68, p < 0·001) over a 15-month predictive horizon.

Interpretation

Several host factors affected RISK11 score, but only adjustment for cough affected diagnostic performance. Combining host factors with RISK11 should be considered to improve prognostic performance.

Funding

Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, South African Medical Research Council.

Clinical predictors of pulmonary tuberculosis among South African adults with HIV

BACKGROUND

Tuberculosis (TB) clinical prediction rules rely on presence of symptoms, however many undiagnosed cases in the community are asymptomatic. This study aimed to explore the utility of clinical factors in predicting TB among people with HIV not seeking care.

METHODS

Baseline data were analysed from an observational cohort of ambulant adults with HIV in South Africa. Participants were tested for Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb) sensitisation (interferon-γ release assay, IGRA) and microbiologically-confirmed prevalent pulmonary TB disease at baseline, and actively surveilled for incident TB through 15 months. Multivariable LASSO regression with post-selection inference was used to test associations with Mtb sensitisation and TB disease.

FINDINGS

Between March 22, 2017, and May 15, 2018, 861 participants were enrolled; Among 851 participants included in the analysis, 94·5% were asymptomatic and 45·9% sensitised to Mtb. TB prevalence was 2·0% at baseline and incidence 2·3/100 person-years through 15 months follow-up. Study site was associated with baseline Mtb sensitisation (p < 0·001), prevalent (p < 0·001), and incident TB disease (p = 0·037). Independent of site, higher CD4 counts (per 50 cells/mm³, aOR 1·48, 95%CI 1·12-1·77, p = 0·006) were associated with increased IGRA positivity, and participants without TB disease (aOR 0·80, 95%CI 0·69-0·94, p = 0·006) had reduced IGRA positivity; no variables were independently associated with prevalent TB. Mixed ancestry (aHR 1·49, 95%CI 1·30->1000, p = 0·005) and antiretroviral initiation (aHR 1·48, 95%CI 1·01-929·93, p = 0·023) were independently associated with incident TB. Models incorporating clinical features alone performed poorly in diagnosing prevalent (AUC 0·65, 95%CI 0·44-0·85) or predicting progression to incident (0·67, 0·46-0·88) TB.

INTERPRETATION

CD4 count and antiretroviral initiation, proxies for immune status and HIV stage, were associated with Mtb sensitisation and TB disease. Inadequate performance of clinical prediction models may reflect predominantly subclinical disease diagnosed in this setting and unmeasured local site factors affecting transmission and progression.

FUNDING

The CORTIS-HR study was funded by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation (OPP1151915) and by the Strategic Health Innovation Partnerships Unit of the South African Medical Research Council with funds received from the South African Department of Science and Technology. The regulatory sponsor was the University of Cape Town.

Invited Commentary: The Role of Tuberculosis Screening Among Migrants to Low-Incidence Settings in (Not) Achieving Elimination

The cost-effectiveness of migrant tuberculosis prevention programs is highly relevant to many countries with low tuberculosis incidence as they attempt to eliminate the disease. Dale et al. (Am J Epidemiol. 2022;191(2):255-270) evaluated strategies for tuberculosis infection screening and treatment among new migrants to Australia. Screening for infection before migration, and then administering preventive treatment after arrival, was more cost-effective than performing both screening and treatment after arrival. From the Australian health payer perspective, the improved cost-effectiveness of premigration screening partly reflected the shift of screening costs to migrants, which may raise ethical concerns. Key sensitivity analyses highlighted the influence of health disutility associated with tuberculosis preventive treatment, and of posttreatment sequelae of tuberculosis disease. Both considerations warrant greater attention in future research. For all strategies, the impact on tuberculosis incidence among migrants was modest (<15%), suggesting enhanced migrant screening will not achieve tuberculosis elimination in low-incidence settings. This emphasizes the need to increase investment and effort in global tuberculosis prevention and care, which will ultimately reduce the prevalence of tuberculosis infection and therefore the risk of tuberculosis disease among migrants. Such efforts will benefit high and low tuberculosis incidence countries alike, and advance all countries further toward tuberculosis elimination.

Scaling up investigation and treatment of household contacts of tuberculosis patients in Brazil: a cost-effectiveness and budget impact analysis

Background

In Brazil, investigation and treatment of tuberculosis infection (TBI) in households contacts (HHC) of TB patients is not a priority. We estimated the cost-effectiveness and budget-impact of scaling-up an enhanced HHC management in Brazil.

Methods

We conceptualized a cascade-of-care that captures how HHC of tuberculosis patients are investigated in Brazil (status quo) and two enhanced strategies for management of HHC focusing on: (1) only tuberculosis disease (TBD) detection and, (2) TBD and TBI detection and treatment. Effectiveness was the number of HHC diagnosed with TBD and completing TBI treatment. Proportions in the cascades-of-care were derived from a meta-analysis. Health-system costs (2019 US$) were based on literature and official data from Brazil. The impact of enhanced strategies was extrapolated using reported data from 2019.

Findings

With the status quo, 0 (95% uncertainty interval: 0-1) HHC are diagnosed with TBD and 2 (0-16) complete TBI treatment. With strategy(1), an additional 15 (3-45) HHC would be diagnosed with TBD at a cost of US$346 each. With strategy(2), 81 (19-226) additional HHC would complete TBI treatment at a cost of US$84 each. A combined strategy, implemented nationally to enhance TBD detection and TBI treatment would result in an additional 9,711 (845-28,693) TBD being detected, and 51,277 (12,028-143,495) more HHC completing TBI treatment each year, utilizing 10.9% and 11.6% of the annual national tuberculosis program budget, respectively.

Interpretation

Enhanced detection and treatment of TBD and TBI among HHC in Brazil can be achieved at a national level using current tools at reasonable cost.

Funding

None.

The burden and predictors of latent tuberculosis infection among immigrants in South Korea: a retrospective cross-sectional study

BACKGROUND

Approximately one-fourth of the global population is latently infected with Mycobacterium tuberculosis. An understanding of the burden of latent tuberculosis infection (LTBI) among immigrants compared with the general Korean population should be the first step in identifying priority groups for LTBI diagnosis and treatment. The study aimed to compute the age-standardized LTBI prevalence and predictors among immigrants with LTBI in South Korea.

METHODS

In 2018, the Korea Disease Control and Prevention Agency implemented a pilot LTBI screening project for immigrants using a chest radiography and the QuantiFERON Gold In-Tube assay. A standardized prevalence ratio (SPR) was computed to compare the LTBI burden in immigrants and the general Korean population.

RESULTS

During the duration of the project, a total of 8108 immigrants (5134 males and 2974 females) underwent LTBI screening. The SPR of 1.547 (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.468-1.629) in males and 1.261 (95% CI 1.177-1.349) in females were both higher than the Korean reference population. Furthermore, among the immigrants, those aged < 40 years and Korean diaspora visa holders had a higher SPR.

CONCLUSION

This study found a higher LTBI prevalence among immigrant population in South Korea compared to that in the general Korean population, and the SPR was higher among those aged < 40 years and the Korean diaspora. The findings can be used as baseline evidence for including immigrants in South Korea in the at-risk group with a priority need for LTBI screening and treatment.

Anticipating the future: prognostic tools as a complementary strategy to improve care for patients with febrile illnesses in resource-limited settings

In low-income and middle-income countries, most patients with febrile illnesses present to peripheral levels of the health system where diagnostic capacity is very limited. In these contexts, accurate risk stratification can be particularly impactful, helping to guide allocation of scarce resources to ensure timely and tailored care. However, reporting of prognostic research is often imprecise and few prognostic tests or algorithms are translated into clinical practice.

Here, we review the often-conflated concepts of prognosis and diagnosis, with a focus on patients with febrile illnesses. Drawing on a recent global stakeholder consultation, we apply these concepts to propose three use-cases for prognostic tools in the management of febrile illnesses in resource-limited settings: (1) guiding referrals from the community to higher-level care; (2) informing resource allocation for patients admitted to hospital and (3) identifying patients who may benefit from closer follow-up post-hospital discharge. We explore the practical implications for new technologies and reflect on the challenges and knowledge gaps that must be addressed before this approach could be incorporated into routine care settings.

Our intention is that these use-cases, alongside other recent initiatives, will help to promote a harmonised yet contextualised approach for prognostic research in febrile illness. We argue that this is especially important given the heterogeneous settings in which care is often provided for patients with febrile illnesses living in low-income and middle-income countries.

Tuberculosis in Adolescents and Young Adults: Emerging Data on TB Transmission and Prevention among Vulnerable Young People

Adolescents and young adults (AYA, ages 10-24 years) comprise a uniquely important but understudied population in global efforts to end tuberculosis (TB), the leading infectious cause of death by a single agent worldwide prior to the COVID-19 pandemic. While TB prevention and care strategies often overlook AYA by grouping them with either children or adults, AYA have particular physiologic, developmental, and social characteristics that require dedicated approaches. This review describes current evidence on the prevention and control of TB among AYA, including approaches to TB screening, dynamics of TB transmission among AYA, and management challenges within the context of unique developmental needs. Challenges are considered for vulnerable groups of AYA such as migrants and refugees; AYA experiencing homelessness, incarceration, or substance use; and AYA living with HIV. We outline areas for needed research and implementation strategies to address TB among AYA globally.

Tuberkulose - Wann daran denken, wie diagnostizieren?

Obwohl die Tuberkulose mithilfe von Antibiotika gut heilbar ist und die Zahlen in Deutschland wieder stetig rückläufig sind, stirbt rechnerisch alle 22 Sekunden auf der Welt ein Mensch an Tuberkulose, 95% davon in Entwicklungs- und Schwellenländern. Die WHO hat in ihrer End-Tuberkulose-Strategie das Ziel formuliert, im Vergleich zu 2015 die Zahl der Tuberkuloseerkrankungen pro 100.000 Einwohner bis 2035 weltweit um 90% und die Zahl der Todesfälle um 95% zu senken. Die Coronakrise hat hier zu großen Rückschritten geführt, fast zwei Drittel der Tuberkuloseprogramme weltweit sind unterbrochen worden. Damit ist in vielen Teilen der Welt die Erreichung dieser Ziele gefährdet und es wird sogar mit zunehmenden Fallzahlen in den nächsten Jahren gerechnet. Aber gerade die Tatsache, dass die Erkrankung bei uns seltener wird führt zu einer Zunahme der Dauer vom ersten Symptom bis zur Tuberkulosediagnose. Der vorliegende Artikel soll Ihnen eine Hilfestellung geben, wann die Tuberkulose in die Differenzialdiagnostik einzubeziehen ist und wie das Krankheitsbild diagnostiziert werden kann. Die Therapie, ihre häufigsten Nebenwirkungen und die Problematik resistenter Tuberkuloseformen werden ebenfalls kurz dargestellt.

Management of childhood and adolescent latent tuberculous infection (LTBI) in Germany, Austria and Switzerland

Background

Majority of active tuberculosis (TB) cases in children in low-incidence countries are due to rapid progression of infection (latent TB infection (LTBI)) to disease. We aimed to assess common practice for managing paediatric LTBI in Austria, Germany and Switzerland prior to the publication of the first joint national guideline for paediatric TB in 2017.

Methods

Online-based survey amongst pediatricians, practitioners and staff working in the public health sector between July and November 2017. Data analysis was conducted using IBM SPSS.

Results

A total of 191 individuals participated in the survey with 173 questionnaires included for final analysis. Twelve percent of respondents were from Austria, 60% from Germany and 28% from Switzerland. Proportion of children with LTBI and migrant background was estimated by the respondents to be >50% by 58%. Tuberculin skin test (TST) and interferon-γ-release-assay (IGRA), particularly Quantiferon-gold-test, were reported to be used in 86% and 88%, respectively. In children > 5 years with a positive TST or IGRA a chest x-ray was commonly reported to be performed (28%). Fifty-three percent reported to take a different diagnostic approach in children ≤ 5 years, mainly combining TST, IGRA and chest x-ray for initial testing (31%). Sixty-eight percent reported to prescribe isoniazid-monotherapy: for 9 (62%), or 6 months (6%), 31% reported to prescribe combination therapy of isoniazid and rifampicin. Dosing of isoniazid and rifampicin below current recommendations was reported by up to 22% of respondents. Blood-sampling before/during LTBI treatment was reported in >90% of respondents, performing a chest-X-ray at the end of treatment by 51%.

Conclusion

This survey showed reported heterogeneity in the management of paediatric LTBI. Thus, regular and easily accessible educational activities and national up-to-date guidelines are key to ensure awareness and quality of care for children and adolescents with LTBI in low-incidence countries.

Implementing tuberculosis preventive treatment in high-prevalence settings

Latent tuberculosis infection affects one quarter of the world's population, and effective therapies are available. However, scale-up of tuberculosis preventive treatment (TPT) remains limited. We describe strategies to support scale-up of TPT in high-prevalence settings, where the potential benefit for affected individuals is considerable. Patients must be at the centre of policies to scale-up TPT. Addressing the health system requirements for scale-up will ensure that programs can deliver treatment safely, efficiently and sustainably. Further research is required to adapt TPT to local contexts, and develop new shorter treatments that will be suitable for wide-scale deployment.

Cost-effectiveness of newer technologies for the diagnosis of Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection in Brazilian people living with HIV

Tuberculosis is the leading cause of death among people living with HIV (PLH). Preventive tuberculosis therapy reduces mortality in PLH, especially in those with a positive tuberculin skin test (TST). New, more specific technologies for detecting latent tuberculosis infection (LTBI) are now commercially available. We sought to analyse the cost-effectiveness of four different strategies for the diagnosis of LTBI in PLH in Brazil, from the Brazilian public health care system perspective. We developed a Markov state-transition model comparing four strategies for the diagnosis of LTBI over 20 years. The strategies consisted of TST with the currently used protein purified derivative (PPD RT 23), two novel skin tests using recombinant allergens (Diaskintest [Generium Pharmaceutical, Moscow, Russia] and EC [Zhifei Longcom Biologic Pharmacy Co., Anhui, China]), and the QuantiFERON-TB-Gold-Plus (Qiagen, Hilden, Germany). The main outcome was cost (in 2020 US dollars) per quality-adjusted life years (QALY). For the base case scenario, the Diaskintest was dominant over all other examined strategies. The cost saving estimate per QALY was US $1375. In sensitivity analyses, the Diaskintest and other newer tests remained cost-saving compared to TST. For PLH, TST could be replaced by more specific tests in Brazil, considering the current national recommendations.