Factors influencing the time to diagnosis and treatment of breast cancer among women in low- and middle-income countries: A systematic review

PURPOSE

Shorter time from symptoms recognition to diagnosis and timely treatment would be expected to improve the survival of patients with breast cancer (BC). This review identifies and summarizes evidence on time to diagnosis and treatment, and associated factors to inform an improved BC care pathways in Low- and Middle-Income Countries (LMICs).

METHODS

A systematic search was conducted in electronic databases including Medline, Embase, PsycINFO and Global Health, covering publications between January 1, 2010, and November 6, 2023. Inclusion criteria encompassed studies published in English from LMICs that reported on time from symptoms recognition to diagnosis and/or from diagnosis to treatment, as well as factors influencing these timelines. Study quality was assessed independently by two reviewers using a standard checklist. Pre-contact, post-contact and treatment intervals and delays in these intervals are presented. Barriers and facilitators for shorter time to diagnosis and treatment found by individual studies after adjusting with covariates are summarized.

RESULTS

The review identified 21 studies across 14 countries and found that BC cases took a longer time to diagnosis than to treatment. However, time to treatment also exceeded the World Health Organization (WHO) recommended period for optimal survival. There was inconsistency in terminology and benchmarks for defining delays in time intervals. Low socioeconomic status and place of residence emerged as frequent barriers, while initial contact with a private health facility or specialist was commonly reported as a facilitator for shorter time to diagnosis and treatment.

CONCLUSIONS

Guidelines or consensus recommendations are essential for defining the optimal time intervals to BC diagnosis and treatment. Our review supported WHO's Global Breast Cancer Initiative recommendations. Increasing public awareness, strengthening of healthcare professional's capacities, partial decentralization of diagnostic services and implementation of effective referral mechanisms are recommended to achieve a shorter time to diagnosis and treatment of BC in LMICs.

Association of optimism and social support with health-related quality of life among Australian women cancer survivors - A cohort study

AIM

Large-scale studies investigating health-related quality of life (HRQL) in cancer survivors are limited. This study aims to investigate HRQL and its relation to optimism and social support among Australian women following a cancer diagnosis.

METHODS

Data were from the Australian Longitudinal Study on Women's Health, a large cohort study (n = 14,715; born 1946-51), with 1428 incident cancer cases ascertained 1996-2017 via linkage to the Australian Cancer Database. HRQL was measured using the Short Form-36 (median 1.7 years post-cancer-diagnosis). Multivariable linear regression was performed on each HRQL domain, separately for all cancers combined, major cancer sites, and cancer-free peers.

RESULTS

Higher optimism and social support were significantly associated with better HRQL across various domains in women with and without a cancer diagnosis (p < 0.05). Mean HRQL scores across all domains for all cancer sites were significantly higher among optimistic versus not optimistic women with cancer (p < 0.05). Adjusting for sociodemographic and other health conditions, lower optimism was associated with reduced scores across all domains, with greater reductions in mental health (adjusted mean difference (AMD) = -11.54, p < 0.01) followed by general health (AMD = -11.08, p < 0.01). Social support was less consistently related to HRQL scores, and following adjustment was only significantly associated with social functioning (AMD = -7.22, p < 0.01) and mental health (AMD = -6.34, p < 0.01).

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings highlight a strong connection between optimism, social support, and HRQL among cancer survivors. Providing psychosocial support and addressing behavioral and socioeconomic factors and other health conditions associated with optimism and social support may improve HRQL.

[Current status and prospects of genetic research on IgA nephropathy]

IgA nephropathy is the most common primary glomerulonephritis worldwide, and genetic factors may play an important role in its pathogenesis. Following candidate gene association analysis and genome-wide linkage study, genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have found multiple susceptibility genes related to the pathogenesis and clinical phenotype of IgA nephropathy. Meanwhile, structural variation and epigenetic changes are also closely related to IgA nephropathy. Genetic variants have been found to explain about 11% of its heritability. In the current era of genomic medicine, how to find more susceptible genes/loci, whole genome sequencing studies (WGS) provide clues to further understand the genetic variation of IgA nephropathy. How to find the cell type-specific susceptibility genes associated with IgA nephropathy, multi-omics studies will conduct comprehensive analysis via single-cell sequencing, expression quantitative trait locus (eQTL) and genomics to find the pathogenic genes and offer insights into the development of targeted drugs, which will be the trend and direction of future research.

Cancer screening in China: a steep road from evidence to implementation

Cancer screening has the potential to decrease mortality from several common cancer types. The first cancer screening programme in China was initiated in 1958 and the Cancer High Incidence Fields established in the 1970s have provided an extensive source of information for national cancer screening programmes. From 2012 onwards, four ongoing national cancer screening programmes have targeted eight cancer types: cervical, breast, colorectal, lung, oesophageal, stomach, liver, and nasopharyngeal cancers. By synthesising evidence from pilot screening programmes and population-based studies for various screening tests, China has developed a series of cancer screening guidelines. Nevertheless, challenges remain for the implementation of a fully successful population-based programme. The aim of this Review is to highlight the key milestones and the current status of cancer screening in China, describe what has been achieved to date, and identify the barriers in transitioning from evidence to implementation. We also make a set of implementation recommendations on the basis of the Chinese experience, which might be useful in the establishment of cancer screening programmes in other countries.

Racial/ethnic disparities in the cause of death among patients with prostate cancer in the United States from 1995 to 2019: a population-based retrospective cohort study

Background

Racial/ethnic disparities in prostate cancer are reported in the United States (US). However, long-term trends and contributors of racial/ethnic disparities in all-cause and cause-specific death among patients with prostate cancer remain unclear. We analysed the trends and contributors of racial/ethnic disparities in prostate cancer survivors according to the cause of death in the US over 25 years.

Methods

In this retrospective, population-based longitudinal cohort study, we identified patients diagnosed with first primary prostate cancer between 1995 and 2019, with follow-up until Dec 31, 2019, using population-based cancer registries' data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) Program. We calculated the cumulative incidence of death for each racial/ethnic group (Black, white, Hispanic, Asian or Pacific Islander [API], and American Indian or Alaska Native [AI/AN] people), by diagnostic period and cause of death. We quantified absolute disparities using rate changes for the 5-year cumulative incidence of death between racial/ethnic groups and diagnostic periods. We estimated relative (Hazard ratios [HR]) racial/ethnic disparities and the percentage of potential factors contributed to racial/ethnic disparities using Cox regression models.

Findings

Despite a decreasing trend in the cumulative risk of death across five racial/ethnic groups, AI/AN and Black patients consistently had the highest rate of death between 1995 and 2019 with an adjusted HR of 1.48 (1.40-1.58) and 1.40 (1.38-1.42) respectively. The disparities in all-cause mortality between AI/AN and white patients increased over time, with adjusted HR 1.32 (1.17-1.49) in 1995-1999 and 1.95 (1.53-2.49) in 2015-2019. Adjustment of stage at diagnosis, initial treatment, tumor grade, and household income explained 33% and 24% of the AI/AN-white and Black-white disparities in all-cause death among patients with prostate cancer.

Interpretation

The enduring racial/ethnic disparities in patients with prostate cancer, call for new interventions to eliminate health disparities. Our study provides important evidence and ways to address racial/ethnic inequality.

Funding

National Key R&D Program of China, National Natural Science Foundation of China, Beijing Municipal Administration of Hospitals Clinical Medicine Development of Special Funding Support, the Open Research Fund from Beijing Advanced Innovation Center for Big Data-Based Precision Medicine, Key Projects of Philosophy and Social Sciences Research, Ministry of Education of China.

Evidence for Band Renormalizations in Strong-Coupling Superconducting Alkali-Fulleride Films

There has been a long-standing debate about the mechanism of the unusual superconductivity in alkali-intercalated fullerides. In this Letter, using high-resolution angle-resolved photoemission spectroscopy, we systematically investigate the electronic structures of superconducting K_{3}C_{60} thin films. We observe a dispersive energy band crossing the Fermi level with the occupied bandwidth of about 130 meV. The measured band structure shows prominent quasiparticle kinks and a replica band involving the Jahn-Teller active phonon modes, which reflects strong electron-phonon coupling in the system. The electron-phonon coupling constant is estimated to be about 1.2, which dominates the quasiparticle mass renormalization. Moreover, we observe an isotropic nodeless superconducting gap beyond the mean-field estimation (2Δ/k_{B}T_{c}≈5). Both the large electron-phonon coupling constant and large reduced superconducting gap suggest a strong-coupling superconductivity in K_{3}C_{60}, while the electronic correlation effect is suggested by the observation of a waterfall-like band dispersion and the small bandwidth compared with the effective Coulomb interaction. Our results not only directly visualize the crucial band structure but also provide important insights into the mechanism of the unusual superconductivity of fulleride compounds.

Incidence profile of four major cancers among migrants in Australia, 2005-2014

PURPOSE

To compare the incidence profile of four major cancers in Australia by place of birth.

METHODS

In this retrospective population-based cohort study, the analysis included 548,851 residents diagnosed with primary colorectum, lung, female breast, or prostate cancer during 2005-2014. Incidence rate ratio (IRR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) were calculated for migrant groups relative to Australian-born.

RESULTS

Compared with Australian-born residents, most migrant groups had significantly lower incidence rates for cancers of the colorectum, breast and prostate. The lowest rates of colorectal cancer were among males born in Central America (IRR = 0.46, 95% CI 0.29-0.74) and females born in Central Asia (IRR = 0.38, 95% CI 0.23-0.64). Males born in North-East Asia had the lowest rates of prostate cancer (IRR = 0.40, 95% CI 0.38-0.43) and females born in Central Asia had the lowest rates of breast cancer (IRR = 0.55, 95% CI 0.43-0.70). For lung cancer, several migrant groups had higher rates than Australian-born residents, with the highest rates among those from Melanesia (males IRR = 1.39, 95% CI 1.10-1.76; females IRR = 1.40, 95% CI 1.10-1.78).

CONCLUSIONS

This study describes cancer patterns among Australian migrants, which are potentially helpful in understanding the etiology of these cancers and guiding the implementation of culturally sensitive and safe prevention measures. The lower incidence rates observed for most migrant groups may be maintained with continued emphasis on supporting communities to minimize modifiable risk factors such as smoking and alcohol consumption and participation in organized cancer screening programmes. Additionally, culturally sensitive tobacco control measures should be targeted to migrant communities with high lung cancer incidence rates.

Female reproductive and hormonal factors and lung cancer mortality among never-smokers: A prospective cohort study of 287 408 Chinese women

There is growing, but inconsistent evidence suggesting oestrogen may play a key role in lung cancer development, especially among never-smoking women for whom lung cancer risk factors remain largely elusive. Using the China Kadoorie Biobank, a large-scale prospective cohort with 302 510 women aged 30 to 79 years recruited from 10 regions in China during 2004 to 2008, we assessed the risk of lung cancer death among self-reported never-smoking women who were cancer-free at baseline, in relation to age at menarche, age at menopause, time since menopause, prior use of oral contraceptives (OCP), number of livebirths, breastfeeding and age at first livebirth. Women were followed up to December 31, 2016 with linkage to mortality data. Hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) were estimated using Cox regression, adjusting for key confounders including several socio-demographic, environmental and lifestyle factors. Among 287 408 never-smoking women, 814 died from lung cancer with a median follow-up of 10.3 years. Women who had used OCP within 15 years prior to baseline had a significantly higher hazard of lung cancer death compared with never-users: HR = 1.85 (95% CI: 1.14-3.00) and risk increased by 6% with each additional year of use: HR = 1.06 (1.01-1.10). Among parous women, the hazard of lung cancer death increased by 13% with each single livebirth: HR = 1.13 (1.05-1.23); and among post-menopausal women, the risk increased by 2% with each year since menopause: HR = 1.02 (1.01-1.04). These results suggest that reproductive factors which were proxies for lower endogenous oestrogen level, for example, longer duration of OCP use, could play a role in lung cancer development.

Geographic, Demographic, and Socioeconomic Disparities and Factors Associated With Cancer Literacy in China: National Cross-sectional Study

BACKGROUND

Cancer literacy is associated with several health-related behaviors and outcomes. However, there is still a lack of nationwide surveys for cancer literacy in China.

OBJECTIVE

This study aims to evaluate cancer literacy in China, explore disparities, and provide scientific evidence for policy makers.

METHODS

A cross-sectional survey was conducted in mainland China in 2021 using the multistage probability proportional to the size sampling method. Both the reliability and validity of the questionnaire were evaluated. The awareness levels were adjusted by sampling weights and nonrepresentativeness weights to match the actual population distributions. The Rao-Scott adjusted chi-square test was applied to test geographic, demographic, and socioeconomic disparities. A generalized linear model was used to explore potential factors.

RESULTS

A total of 80,281 participants aged 15-74 years were finally enrolled from 21 provinces, with an overall response rate of 89.32%. The national rate of cancer literacy was 70.05% (95% CI 69.52%-70.58%). The rates were highest regarding knowledge of cancer management (74.96%, 95% CI 74.36%-75.56%) but were lowest regarding basic knowledge of cancer (66.77%, 95% CI 66.22%-67.33%). Cancer literacy was highest in East China (72.65%, 95% CI 71.82%-73.49%), Central China (71.73%, 95% CI 70.65%-72.81%), and North China (70.73%, 95% CI 68.68%-72.78%), followed by Northeast (65.38%, 95% CI 64.54%-66.22%) and South China (63.21%, 95% CI 61.84%-64.58%), whereas Southwest (59.00%, 95% CI 58.11%-59.89%) and Northwest China (57.09%, 95% CI 55.79%-58.38%) showed a need for improvement. Demographic and socioeconomic disparities were also observed. Urban dwellers, the Han ethnic group, and population with higher education level or household income were associated with prior knowledge. The questionnaire showed generally good internal and external reliability and validity.

CONCLUSIONS

It remains important for China to regularly monitor levels of cancer literacy, narrow disparities, and strengthen health education for dimensions with poor performance and for individuals with limited knowledge to move closer to the goal of Healthy China 2030.

Measuring population-level cure patterns for cancer patients in the United States

While the life expectancy of cancer survivors has substantially improved over time in the United States, the extent to which cancer patients are cured is not known. Population-level cure patterns are important indicators to quantify cancer survivorships. This population-based cohort study included 8978,721 cancer patients registered in the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) databases between 1975 and 2018. The primary outcome was cure fractions. Five-year cure probability, time to cure and median survival time of uncured cases were also assessed. All four measures were calculated using flexible parametric models, according to 46 cancer sites, three summary stages, individual age and calendar year at diagnosis. In 2018, cure fractions ranged from 2.7% for distant liver cancer to 100.0% for localized/regional prostate cancer. Localized cancer had the highest cure fraction, followed by regional cancer and distant cancer. Except for localized breast cancer, older patients generally had lower cure fractions. There were 38 cancer site and stage combinations (31.2%) that achieved 95% of cure within 5 years. Median survival time of the uncured cases ranged from 0.3 years for distant liver cancer to 10.9 years for localized urinary bladder cancer. A total of 117 cancer site and stage combinations (93.6%) had increased cure fraction over time. A considerable proportion of cancer patients were cured at the population-level, and the cure patterns varied substantially across cancer site, stage and age at diagnosis. Increases in cure fractions over time likely reflected advances in cancer treatment and early detection.

An ecological study of obesity-related cancer incidence trends in Australia from 1983 to 2017

BACKGROUND

Overweight and obesity is a growing public health issue as it contributes to the future burden of obesity-related diseases, including cancer, especially in high-income countries. In Australia, 4.3% of all cancers diagnosed in 2013 were attributable to overweight and obesity. Our aim was to examine Australian age-specific incidence trends over the last 35 years for obesity-related cancers based on expert review (colorectal, liver, gallbladder, pancreas, breast in postmenopausal women, uterine, ovary, kidney, thyroid, and multiple myeloma) individually and pooled.

METHODS

Australian incidence data for 10 obesity-related cancers among people aged 25-84 years, diagnosed from 1983 to 2017, were obtained from the Australian Cancer Database. We used age-period-cohort modelling and joinpoint analysis to assess trends, estimating incidence rate ratios (IRR) by birth-cohort for each individual cancer and pooled, and the annual percentage change. The analyses were also conducted for non-obesity-related cancers over the same period.

FINDINGS

The total number of cancers where some proportion is obesity-related, diagnosed from 1983-2017, was 1,005,933. This grouping was 34.7% of cancers diagnosed. The IRR of obesity-related cancers increased from 0.77 (95% CI 0.73, 0.81) for the 1903 birth-cohort to 2.95 (95% CI 2.58, 3.38) for the recent 1988 cohort relative to the 1943 cohort. The IRRs of non-obesity related cancers were stable with non-significant decreases in younger cohorts. These trends were broadly similar across sex and age groups.

INTERPRETATION

The incidence of obesity-related cancers in Australia has increased by birth-cohort across all age-groups, which should be monitored. Obesity, a public health epidemic, needs to be addressed through increased awareness, policy support and evidence-based interventions.

FUNDING

This research received no specific funding.

Patterns and trends in the cause of death for patients with endometrial cancer

BACKGROUND

Racial disparities in endometrial cancer have been reported in the United States, but trends and the underlying causes are not well understood. We aimed to examine the trends and contributing factors in racial disparities for causes of death among endometrial cancer patients.

METHOD

In this population-based cohort study, we identified 139 473 women diagnosed with first, primary endometrial cancer between 1992 to 2018 from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Program. We used the "Fine and Gray" method to calculate the cumulative incidence of all-cause and specific-cause death. We used proportional subdistribution hazard (PSH) and cause-specific hazard (CSH) models to quantify the relative risk of Black-White disparities. We performed a mediation analysis to assess the contribution of potential factors to disparities.

RESULTS

The cumulative incidence of all-cause death decreased in endometrial cancer patients, with estimates at 5 years of 26.72% in 1992-1996 and 22.59% in 2007-2011. Compared with White patients, Black patients persistently had an increased risk of death due to endometrial cancer (PSH hazard ratio [HR] = 2.05, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.90 to 2.22; CSH HR = 2.19, 95% CI = 2.00 to 2.40) and causes other than endometrial cancer (PSH HR = 1.23, 95% CI = 1.10 to 1.37; CSH HR = 1.46, 95% CI = 1.31 to 1.63). Grade, histological subtype, surgery utilization, and stage at diagnosis explained 24.4%, 20.1%, 18.4%, and 16.6% of the Black-White disparity in all-cause death, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Although the cumulative incidence of all-cause death decreased, the Black-White gaps persisted in patients with endometrial cancer. Grade and histological subtype had the greatest influence. More efforts are needed to address the disparities.

Solid Fuel, Secondhand Smoke, and Lung Cancer Mortality: A Prospective Cohort of 323,794 Chinese Never-Smokers

Rationale: Household air pollution and secondhand tobacco smoke are known carcinogens for lung cancer, but large-scale estimates of the relationship with lung cancer mortality are lacking. Objectives: Using the large-scale cohort China Kadoorie Biobank, we prospectively investigated associations between these two risk factors and lung cancer death among never-smokers. Methods: The Biobank recruited 512,715 adults aged 30-79 years from 10 regions in China during 2004-2008. Self-reported never-smoking participants were followed up to December 31, 2016, with linkage to mortality data. Total duration of exposure to household air pollution was calculated from self-reported domestic solid fuel use. Exposure to secondhand tobacco smoke was ascertained using exposure at home and/or other places. Hazard ratios and 95% confidence intervals for associations between these two exposures and lung cancer death were estimated using Cox regression, adjusting for key confounders. Measurements and Main Results: There were 979 lung cancer deaths among 323,794 never-smoking participants without a previous cancer diagnosis during 10.2 years of follow-up. There was a log-linear positive association between exposure to household air pollution and lung cancer death, with a 4% increased risk per 5-year increment of exposure (hazard ratio = 1.04; 95% confidence interval = 1.01-1.06; P trend = 0.0034), and participants with 40.1-50.0 years of exposure had the highest risk compared with the never-exposed (hazard ratio = 1.53; 95% confidence interval = 1.13-2.07). The association was largely consistent across various subgroups. No significant association was found between secondhand smoke and lung cancer death. Conclusions: This cohort study provides new prospective evidence suggesting that domestic solid fuel use is associated with lung cancer death among never-smokers.

Cancer Incidence in Migrants in Australia: Patterns of Three Infection-Related Cancers

BACKGROUND

Australia provides an ideal population-base for cancer migration studies because of its multicultural society and high-quality cancer registrations. Among migrant groups there is considerable variability in the incidence of infection-related cancers; thus, the patterns of three such cancers were examined among migrant groups relative to Australian-born residents.

METHODS

Using national incidence data for cancers of the stomach, liver, and cervix diagnosed during 2005 to 2014, incidence rates were compared for selected migrant groups with the Australian-born population using incidence rate ratios (IRR), from a negative binomial regression model.

RESULTS

Wide variations in incidence between countries/regions of birth were observed for all three cancers (P < 0.0001). The patterns were similar for cancers of the stomach and liver, in that migrants from countries/regions with higher incidence rates maintained an increased risk in Australia, with the highest being among South American migrants (IRR = 2.35) for stomach cancer and among Vietnamese migrants (5.44) for liver cancer. In contrast, incidence rates of cervical cancer were lower for many migrant groups, with women from Southern Asia (0.39) and North Africa (0.42) having the lowest rates. The rate of cervical cancer was higher in migrants from New Zealand, Philippines, and Polynesia.

CONCLUSIONS

Several Australian migrant groups were found to experience a disproportionate burden of infection-related cancers; further studies of associated risk factors may inform the design of effective interventions to mediate these disparities.

IMPACT

By identifying these migrant groups, it is hoped that these results will motivate and inform prevention or early detection activities for these migrant groups. See related commentary Dee and Gomez, p. 1251.

Projections of smoking-related cancer mortality in Australia to 2044

BACKGROUND

While many high-income countries including Australia have successfully implemented a range of tobacco control policies, smoking remains the leading preventable cause of cancer death in Australia. We have projected Australian mortality rates for cancer types, which have been shown to have an established relationship with cigarette smoking and estimated numbers of cancer deaths attributable to smoking to 2044.

METHODS

Cancer types were grouped according to the proportion of cases currently caused by smoking: 8%-30% and >30%. For each group, an age-period- cohort model or generalised linear model with cigarette smoking exposure as a covariate was selected based on the model fit statistics and validation using observed data. The smoking-attributable fraction (SAF) was calculated for each smoking-related cancer using Australian smoking prevalence data and published relative risks.

RESULTS

Despite the decreasing mortality rates projected for the period 2015-2019 to 2040-2044 for both men and women, the overall number of smoking-related cancer deaths is estimated to increase by 28.7% for men and 35.8% for women: from 138 707 (77 839 men and 60 868 women) in 2015-2019 to 182 819 (100 153 men and 82 666 women) in 2040-2044. Over the period 2020-2044, there will be 254 583 cancer deaths (173 943 men and 80 640 women) directly attributable to smoking, with lung, larynx, oesophagus and oral (comprising lip, oral cavity and pharynx) cancers having the largest SAFs.

INTERPRETATION

Cigarette smoking will cause over 250 000 cancer deaths in Australia from 2020 to 2044. Continued efforts in tobacco control remain a public health priority, even in countries where smoking prevalence has substantially declined.

Cancer incidence and mortality in Australia from 2020 to 2044 and an exploratory analysis of the potential effect of treatment delays during the COVID-19 pandemic: a statistical modelling study

BACKGROUND

Long-term projections of cancer incidence and mortality estimate the future burden of cancer in a population, and can be of great use in informing the planning of health services and the management of resources. We aimed to estimate incidence and mortality rates and numbers of new cases and deaths up until 2044 for all cancers combined and for 21 individual cancer types in Australia. We also illustrate the potential effect of treatment delays due to the COVID-19 pandemic on future colorectal cancer mortality rates.

METHODS

In this statistical modelling study, cancer incidence and mortality rates in Australia from 2020 to 2044 were projected based on data up to 2017 and 2019, respectively. Cigarette smoking exposure (1945-2019), participation rates in the breast cancer screening programme (1996-2019), and prostate-specific antigen testing rates (1994-2020) were included where relevant. The baseline projection model using an age-period-cohort model or generalised linear model for each cancer type was selected based on model fit statistics and validation with pre-COVID-19 observed data. To assess the impact of treatment delays during the COVID-19 pandemic on colorectal cancer mortality, we obtained data on incidence, survival, prevalence, and cancer treatment for colorectal cancer from different authorities. The relative risks of death due to system-caused treatment delays were derived from a published systematic review. Numbers of excess colorectal cancer deaths were estimated using the relative risk of death per week of treatment delay and different durations of delay under a number of hypothetical scenarios.

FINDINGS

Projections indicate that in the absence of the COVID-19 pandemic effects, the age-standardised incidence rate for all cancers combined for males would decline over 2020-44, and for females the incidence rate would be relatively stable in Australia. The mortality rates for all cancers combined for both males and females are expected to continuously decline during 2020-44. The total number of new cases are projected to increase by 47·4% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 35·2-61·3) for males, from 380 306 in 2015-19 to 560 744 (95% UI 514 244-613 356) in 2040-44, and by 54·4% (95% UI 40·2-70·5) for females, from 313 263 in 2015-19 to 483 527 (95% UI 439 069-534 090) in 2040-44. The number of cancer deaths are projected to increase by 36·4% (95% UI 15·3-63·9) for males, from 132 440 in 2015-19 to 180 663 (95% UI 152 719-217 126) in 2040-44, and by 36·6% (95% UI 15·8-64·1) for females, from 102 103 in 2015-19 to 139 482 (95% UI 118 186-167 527) in 2040-44, due to population ageing and growth. The example COVID-19 pandemic scenario of a 6-month health-care system disruption with 16-week treatment delays for colorectal cancer patients could result in 460 (95% UI 338-595) additional deaths and 437 (95% UI 314-570) deaths occurring earlier than expected in 2020-44.

INTERPRETATION

These projections can inform health service planning for cancer care and treatment in Australia. Despite the continuous decline in cancer mortality rates, and the decline or plateau in incidence rates, our projections suggest an overall 51% increase in the number of new cancer cases and a 36% increase in the number of cancer deaths over the 25-year projection period. This means that continued efforts to increase screening uptake and to control risk factors, including smoking exposure, obesity, physical inactivity, alcohol use, and infections, must remain public health priorities.

FUNDING

Partly funded by Cancer Council Australia.

Evaluating risk factors for lung cancer among never-smoking individuals using two Australian studies

PURPOSE

Lung cancer (LC) in never-smoking individuals would rank as Australia's eighth most deadly cancer, yet risk factors remain uncertain. We investigated demographic, lifestyle and health-related exposures for LC among never-smoking Australians.

METHODS

Using the prospective 45 and Up Study with 267,153 New South Wales (NSW) residents aged ≥ 45 years at recruitment (2006-2009), we quantified the relationship of 20 potential exposures with LC among cancer-free participants at baseline who self-reported never smoking. Adjusted hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for incident LC were estimated using Cox regression. The NSW Cancer, Lifestyle and Evaluation of Risk (CLEAR) Study, a case-control study including 10,781 NSW residents aged ≥ 18 years (2006-2014), was used to examine 16 potential LC exposures among cancer-free never-smoking participants. Adjusted odds ratios (OR) and 95% CI of LC were estimated using logistic regression.

RESULTS

There were 226 LC cases among 132,354 cancer-free 45 and Up Study participants who reported never smoking, with a median follow-up of 5.41 years. The CLEAR Study had 58 LC cases and 1316 cancer-free controls who had never smoked. Analyses of both datasets showed that Asian-born participants had a higher risk of LC than those born elsewhere: cohort, adjusted HR = 2.83 (95% CI 1.64-4.89) and case-control, adjusted OR = 3.78 (1.19-12.05). No significant association with LC was found for other exposures.

CONCLUSION

Our findings support the growing evidence that never-smoking, Asian-born individuals are at higher risk of developing LC than those born elsewhere. Ethnicity could be considered when assessing potential LC risk among never-smoking individuals.

[Concerns about COVID-19-associated liver injury]

Patients infected with 2019-nCoV/SARS-CoV-2 are usually accompanied with liver injury, which may correlates with the severe forms of the disease. The pathogenesis of COVID-19-associated liver injury is not only related to the underlying liver diseases, viral cholangitis, systemic inflammatory response, and hypoxic liver injury, but also to multiple factors that lead to liver injury in patients. Therefore, during the course of treatment, the patient's liver function should be closely monitored, and attention should be paid to the occurrence of drug-induced liver injury.

Changes in prostate cancer incidence, mortality and survival in relation to prostate specific antigen testing in New South Wales, Australia

BACKGROUND

To examine changes in prostate cancer incidence and mortality rates, and 5-year relative survival, in relation to changes in the rate of prostate specific antigen (PSA) screening tests and the use of radical prostatectomy (RP) in the Australian population.

METHODS

Prostate cancer stage-specific incidence rates, 5-year relative survival and mortality rates were estimated using New South Wales Cancer Registry data. PSA screening test rates and RP/Incidence ratios were estimated from Medicare Benefits Schedule claims data. We used multiple imputation to impute stage for cases with "unknown" stage at diagnosis. Annual percentage changes (APC) in rates were estimated using Joinpoint regression.

RESULTS

Trends in the age-standardized incidence rates for localized disease largely mirrored the trends in PSA screening test rates, with a substantial 'spike' in the rates occurring in 1994, followed by a second 'spike' in 2008, and then a significant decrease from 2008 to 2015 (APC -6.7, 95% CI -8.2, -5.1). Increasing trends in incidence rates were observed for regional stage from the early 2000s, while decreasing or stable trends were observed for distant stage since 1993. The overall RP/Incidence ratio increased from 1998 to 2003 (APC 9.6, 95% CI 3.8, 15.6), then remained relatively stable to 2015. The overall 5-year relative survival for prostate cancer increased from 58.4% (95% CI: 55.0-61.7%) in 1981-1985 to 91.3% (95% CI: 90.5-92.1%) in 2011-2015. Prostate cancer mortality rates decreased from 1990 onwards (1990-2006: APC -1.7, 95% CI -2.1, -1.2; 2006-2017: APC -3.8, 95% CI -4.4, -3.1).

CONCLUSIONS

Overall, there was a decrease in the incidence rate of localized prostate cancer after 2008, an increase in survival over time and a decrease in the mortality rate since the 1990s. This seems to indicate that the more conservative use of PSA screening tests in clinical practice since 2008 has not had a negative impact on population-wide prostate cancer outcomes.

[Analysis of articles on dental pulp biology research in China published in international journals from 2011 to 2020]

Objective: To analyze the articles on research of dental pulp biology in China and to understand the situation of China in the entire field of dental pulp biology around the world in order to provide references for further in-depth research in dental pulp biology in China. Methods: Based on Web of Science core collection database, the articles published in the international journals in the field of dental pulp biology from 2011 to 2020 were retrieved and identified. Six indicators including research scale, academic influence, high-ranking and the high-influence journals, research areas, international partnership and project funding were statistically analyzed. Results: Totally 1 215 articles were published by Chinese researchers, which is the most in the research field of dental pulp biology. The total number of citations was 18 328, however the average number of citations of above mentioned articles was slightly lower than that of the world average. The number of articles published in Natural Index Journals and Journal of Dental Research is lower than that of the United States. The research areas of dental pulp biology in China were not only in dentistry, oral surgery and medicine, but also in cell biology, experimental medicine, materials science, engineering, molecular biology and applied microbiology. Articles of internationally cooperated researches were scarce. Most of the researches of dental pulp biology field conducted in China were supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China. Conclusions: Although there were fruitful research outcomes in the field of dental pulp biology from 2011 to 2020, the academic influence of these researches still needed to be improved. It was recommended that great efforts should be made in developing interdisciplinary, inter-unit and international cooperation, focusing on hotspot and major projects, actively applying for and using of project fundings in order to produce more high-quality research outcomes.

Trends in colon and rectal cancer mortality in Australia from 1972 to 2015 and associated projections to 2040

Previously published sub-site Australian projections for colon and rectal cancers to 2035 using the World Health Organization's mortality database sourced from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) predicted mortality rate decreases for colon cancer and increases for rectal cancer. There are complexities related to the interpretation of ABS's Australian colon and rectal cancer mortality rates, which could lead to possible inaccuracies in mortality rates for these sub-sites. The largest Australian population-wide registry, New South Wales Cancer Registry (NSWCR), compares routinely-reported causes of death with the recorded medical history from multiple data sources. Therefore, this study used the NSWCR data to project mortality rates for colon and rectal cancers separately to 2040 in Australia. The mortality rates for colon cancer are projected to continuously decline over the period 2015-2040, from 7.0 to 4.7 per 100,000 males, and from 5.3 to 3.2 per 100,000 females. Similar decreasing trends in mortality rates for rectal cancer were projected over the period 2015-2040, from 4.9 to 3.7 per 100,000 males, and from 2.6 to 2.3 per 100,000 females. These projections provide benchmark estimates for the colorectal cancer burden in Australia against which the effectiveness of cancer control interventions can be measured.

[Effect of Echinococcus granulosus hydatid cyst fluid protein on allergic rhinitis induced by ovalbumin in mice]

OBJECTIVE

To investigate the protective effect of Echinococcus granulosus hydatid cyst fluid protein (HCFP) on ovalbumin (OVA)-induced allergic rhinitis (AR) in mice.

METHODS

Twenty-four BALB/c mice at ages of 8 to 10 weeks, each weighing approximately 20 g, were randomly divided into four groups, including groups A (blank control group), B (blank intervention group), C (AR model group) and D (AR+HCFP intervention group), with 6 mice in each group. On days 0, 2, 4, 6, 8, 10 and 12, mice in groups A, B, C and D were injected with 200 μL sterile phosphate buffered saline (PBS), 200 μL sterile PBS containing 20 μg HCFP, 200 μL sterile PBS containing 50 μg OVA and 5 mg Al(OH)₃ gel, and 200 μL sterile PBS containing 50 μg OVA, 5 mg Al(OH)₃ gel and 20 μg HCFP, respectively. On days 14 to 20, mice in groups A, B, C and D were administered with 40 μL sterile PBS, 40 μL sterile PBS containing 20 μg HCFP, 40 μL sterile PBS containing 2 mg OVA and 40 μL sterile PBS containing 2 mg OVA and 20 μL HCFP by nasal drop, respectively. Mouse behavioral changes were observed and behavioral scores were estimated. The serum levels of interferon-γ (IFN-γ), interleukin-4 (IL-4), IL-5, IL-10, transforming growth factor-β (TGF-β) and OVA-specific IgE antibody (OVA-sIgE) were measured using enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA), and the pathological changes of mouse nasal mucosa were observed by hematoxylin and eosin (HE) staining.

RESULTS

The mean behavioral score was significantly greater in Group C (6.83 ± 0.50) than in groups A (1.17 ± 0.52) and B (1.33 ± 0.52) (P < 0.05), while a lower mean behavioral score was estimated in Group D (3.50 ± 0.50) than in Group C (P < 0.05). There were significant differences among the groups in terms of serum IFN-γ (F = 4.08, P < 0.05), IL-4 (F = 275.90, P < 0.05), IL-5 (F = 96.82, P < 0.05), IL-10 (F = 77.67, P < 0.05), TGF-β (F = 9.98, P < 0.05) and OVA-sIgE levels (F = 44.69, P < 0.05). The serum IFN-γ level was significantly lower in Group C than in groups A, B and C (P < 0.05), and the serum levels of IL-4, IL-5 and OVA-sIgE were significantly higher in Group C than in groups A, B and C (P < 0.05), while the serum IL-10 and TGF-β levels were significantly greater in Group D than in Group C (P < 0.05). Microscopy showed apparent loss of nasal mucosa cilia, increased number and enlargement of goblet cells, interstitial edema and submucous vascular dilation in Group C, while the pathological changes of nasal mucosa were alleviated in Group D relative to Group C.

CONCLUSIONS

E. granulosus HCFP has a protective activity against OVA-induced allergic rhinitis in mice.

Quantifying the absolute number of cancer deaths that would be avoided if cancers were diagnosed prior to progressing to distant metastasis, New South Wales, Australia 1985-2014

This study measures the impact of diagnosing cancers early before they metastasise on reducing the burden of cancer death. A cohort of 716,501 people aged 15-89 years diagnosed with a solid cancer in New South Wales, Australia, during 1985-2014 were followed-up to December 2015. Crude probabilities of cancer death by stage at diagnosis were calculated for all solid cancers combined and five individual cancers using flexible parametric relative survival models. These probabilities were used to estimate the number of avoided cancer deaths within 10 years of diagnosis in three 10-year diagnostic periods if all cases with known distant stage were instead diagnosed at an earlier stage. Cancers known to be diagnosed at distant stage comprised ~16% of all solid cancers diagnosed during 2005-2014. Assuming all these cases were instead diagnosed at regional stage, an annual average of 2,064 cancer deaths would have been potentially avoided within 10 years of diagnosis. This equated to ~21% of modelled observed deaths. Alternatively, if half of all known distant cases diagnosed during 2005-2014 were diagnosed as regional and half as localised, the average number of deaths avoided per year would increase to 2,677 (~28%). Estimates varied by diagnostic period, sex, and cancer type, reflecting both the different stage distributions for the cancer types, and the respective survival differences between cancer stages. While prevention is the most effective pillar of cancer control, these findings quantify the potential benefits of diagnosing all cancer types when they are less advanced to reduce the burden of cancer mortality.

Socioeconomic disparities in colorectal cancer survival: contributions of prognostic factors in a large Australian cohort

Purpose

We quantified the contributions of prognostic factors to socioeconomic disparities in colorectal cancer survival in a large Australian cohort.

Methods

The sample comprised 45 and Up Study participants (recruited 2006–2009) who were subsequently diagnosed with colorectal cancer. Both individual (education attained) and neighbourhood socioeconomic measures were used. Questionnaire responses were linked with cancer registrations (to December 2013), records for hospital inpatient stays, emergency department presentations, death information (to December 2015), and Medicare and Pharmaceutical Benefits claims for subsidised procedures and medicines. Proportions of socioeconomic survival differences explained by prognostic factors were quantified using multiple Cox proportional hazards regression.

Results

1720 eligible participants were diagnosed with colorectal cancer after recruitment: 1174 colon and 546 rectal cancers. Significant colon cancer survival differences were only observed for neighbourhood socioeconomic measure (p = 0.033): HR = 1.55; 95% CI 1.09–2.19 for lowest versus highest quartile, and disease-related factors explained 95% of this difference. For rectal cancer, patient- and disease-related factors were the main drivers of neighbourhood survival differences (28–36%), while these factors and treatment-related factors explained 24–41% of individual socioeconomic differences. However, differences remained significant for rectal cancer after adjusting for all these factors.

Conclusion

In this large contemporary Australian cohort, we identified several drivers of socioeconomic disparities in colorectal cancer survival. Understanding of the role these contributors play remains incomplete, but these findings suggest that improving access to optimal care may significantly reduce these survival disparities.

[Current status of hyperkalemia in dialysis patients in China]

Objective: To investigate the prevalence and associated factors of hyperkalemia in dialysis patients. Methods: Patients underwent hemodialysis (HD) and peritoneal dialysis (PD) from multi-center databases were recruited from January 2017 to December 2019, and those aged ≥18 years and with dialysis duration ≥3 months were included to analyze the prevalence and related factors of hyperkalemia. Results: A total of 12 364 patients were enrolled in the study, and 6 836 cases were men. The average age of the patients was (51±15) years. Among these patients, 4 230 cases underwent HD while 8 134 received PD. Hyperkalemia was detected in 20.7% (2 554/12 364) of the patients while hypokalemia was found in 17.0%(2 102/12 364) of the patients. Multivariate logistic regression showed that HD (OR=2.25, 95%CI: 1.54-3.30), diabetes mellitus (DM) (OR=1.65, 95%CI: 1.17-2.32), high body mass index (BMI) (OR=1.06, 95%CI: 1.03-1.09), high levels of serum albumin (OR=1.04, 95%CI: 1.01-1.07) and phosphorus (OR=3.12, 95%CI: 2.44-4.00), low levels of serum bicarbonate (OR=0.89, 95%CI: 0.87-0.92), triglycerides (OR=0.76, 95%CI: 0.68-0.85) and creatinine (OR=0.95, 95%CI: 0.90-0.99), usage of angiotensin converting enzyme inhibitor/Angiotensin Ⅱ receptor antagonist (ACEI/ARB, OR=1.38, 95%CI: 1.11-1.72) and beta-blocker (OR=1.32, 95%CI: 1.07-1.64) were associated with hyperkalemia. Conclusions: Hyperkalemia occurred in 20.7% of the dialysis patients. HD, DM, high BMI, high levels of serum albumin and phosphorus, low levels of serum bicarbonate, triglycerides and creatinine, use of ACEI/ARB were associated with hyperkalemia.

Lung cancer risk in never-smokers: An overview of environmental and genetic factors

Lung cancer is the leading cause of cancer-related mortality globally, accounting for 1.8 million deaths in 2020. While the vast majority are caused by tobacco smoking, 15%-25% of all lung cancer cases occur in lifelong never-smokers. The International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC) has classified multiple agents with sufficient evidence for lung carcinogenesis in humans, which include tobacco smoking, as well as several environmental exposures such as radon, second-hand tobacco smoke, outdoor air pollution, household combustion of coal and several occupational hazards. However, the IARC evaluation had not been stratified based on smoking status, and notably lung cancer in never-smokers (LCINS) has different epidemiological, clinicopathologic and molecular characteristics from lung cancer in ever-smokers. Among several risk factors proposed for the development of LCINS, environmental factors have the most available evidence for their association with LCINS and their roles cannot be overemphasized. Additionally, while initial genetic studies largely focused on lung cancer as a whole, recent studies have also identified genetic risk factors for LCINS. This article presents an overview of several environmental factors associated with LCINS, and some of the emerging evidence for genetic factors associated with LCINS. An increased understanding of the risk factors associated with LCINS not only helps to evaluate a never-smoker's personal risk for lung cancer, but also has important public health implications for the prevention and early detection of the disease. Conclusive evidence on causal associations could inform longer-term policy reform in a range of areas including occupational health and safety, urban design, energy use and particle emissions, and the importance of considering the impacts of second-hand smoke in tobacco control policy.

250Different perspectives of survival outcomes for Australian cancer patients

Background

While relative survival is commonly used to describe cancer prognosis, its interpretation remains confusing. Alternative measures provide additional insights into the survival experience of Australian cancer patients.

Methods

Population-based cohort of over 2 million Australians diagnosed with 19 types of primary invasive cancer from 1982 to 2014 with mortality follow-up to 31 December 2015. Flexible parametric survival models were used to estimate loss of life expectancy, avoidable cancer deaths, crude survival, probability of cure and survival of uncured population for cancers diagnosed in Australia.

Results

There has been an overall decrease in the loss of life expectancy caused by a cancer diagnosis. Australians diagnosed in 2014 will gain an extra 432,588 life years due to the improvement in relative survival since 1982. Similarly, 29% (females) and 40% (males) of expected cancer deaths among the 2005-2014 cohort will be avoided compared to the 1985-1994 cohort. While the 10- year crude probability of cancer deaths decreased over time, patterns varied by cancer type. The crude probability of competing deaths increased with age. Between 1982 and 2009, the cure proportion increased significantly for all cancers.

Conclusion

Alternative measures of survival may help communicate the reducing impact that a cancer diagnosis has on average life expectancy.

Key messages

The growing number of Australian cancer survivors can pose emerging challenges to these patients, their caregivers, medical professionals and health-care systems in accessing or providing evidence-based survivorship and psychosocial care after a cancer diagnosis.

1235Household air pollution and lung cancer mortality among never-smokers: findings from the China Kadoorie Biobank

Background

Household air pollution (HAP) has been classified as a major risk factor for lung cancer (LC) among never-smokers, however, evidence is largely from case-control studies. Using the prospective cohort China Kadoorie Biobank (CKB), we investigated the association of HAP with LC death among never-smokers.

Methods

The CKB, a large-scale cohort study, recruited 512,715 adults aged 30–79 years from ten regions in China during 2004-2008. Self-reported never-smoking participants were followed up to 31/12/2016 with linkage to mortality data. Total duration of HAP exposure was calculated from self-reported solid fuel use in domestic cooking and slow-burning stoves in participants’ three most recent residences, and self-reported coal-smoky home in winter during their lifetime. Hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) of LC death associated with HAP exposure were estimated using Cox regression, adjusting for key confounders including several demographic, environmental and lifestyle factors.

Results

There were 979 LC deaths among 323,794 never-smokers without prior cancer during a median follow-up of 10.2 years. There was a log-linear positive association between HAP exposure and LC death (p-trend=0.0034), with 4% increased risk per 5-year longer exposure (HR = 1.04; 95% CI 1.01-1.06); and participants with 40.1-50.0 years of exposure had the highest risk compared to the never-exposed (HR = 1.53; 95% CI 1.13-2.07).

Conclusions

This study provides new prospective evidence that HAP exposure is associated with LC death among Chinese never-smokers, and strengthens the previous evidence largely based on case-control studies.

Key messages

This study supports HAP as an important risk factor for LC development among never-smokers.

656Risk factors for lung cancer in never-smokers in Australia

Background

Lung cancer in never-smokers (LCINS), if considered as a distinct type, would rank as Australia’s eighth most deadly cancer. We investigated several demographic, lifestyle and health-related risk factors for LCINS in Australia.

Methods

Using the longitudinal 45 and Up Study cohort with 267,153 New South Wales (NSW) residents aged ≥45 years at recruitment (2006-2009), we quantified the relationship of 20 potential risk factors with LCINS. Self-reported never-smoking participants who were cancer-free at baseline were followed for incident lung cancer (LC), and adjusted hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) were estimated using Cox regression. The NSW Cancer, Lifestyle and Evaluation of Risk (CLEAR) Study, a case-control study including 10,781 NSW residents aged ≥18 years, was also used to examine 16 potential risk factors for LCINS. Adjusted odds ratios (OR) and 95% CI for LC were estimated using logistic regression.

Results

In the 45 and Up Study, there were 226 LC cases among 132,354 cancer-free never-smokers with a median follow-up of 5.41 years. In the CLEAR Study, there were 58 LCINS cases and 1316 cancer-free never-smoking controls. After adjusting for potential confounders, analyses of both datasets showed that Asian-born participants had a higher risk of LCINS than those born elsewhere: cohort HR = 2.83 (95% CI: 1.64-4.89) and case-control OR = 3.78 (95% CI: 1.19-12.05).

Conclusions

Our findings support the growing evidence that never-smokers born in Asia are at higher risk of developing LC than those born elsewhere.

Key messages

Region of birth could be considered when assessing potential LC risk among never-smokers.

Crude probability of death for cancer patients by spread of disease in New South Wales, Australia 1985 to 2014

BACKGROUND

To estimate trends in the crude probability of death for cancer patients by sex, age and spread of disease over the past 30 years in New South Wales, Australia.

METHODS

Population-based cohort of 716,501 people aged 15-89 years diagnosed with a first primary cancer during 1985-2014 were followed up to 31 December 2015. Flexible parametric relative survival models were used to estimate the age-specific crude probability of dying from cancer and other causes by calendar year, sex and spread of disease for all solid tumours combined and cancers of the colorectum, lung, female breast, prostate and melanoma.

RESULTS

Estimated 10-year sex, age and spread-specific crude probabilities of cancer death generally decreased over time for most cancer types, although the magnitude of the decrease varied. For example, out of 100 fifty-year old men with localized prostate cancer, 12 would have died from their cancer if diagnosed in 1985 and 3 in 2014. Greater degree of spread was consistently associated with higher probability of dying from cancer, although outcomes for lung cancer were consistently poor. For both males and females, the probability of non-cancer deaths was higher among older patients, those diagnosed with localized cancers and where cancer survival was higher.

CONCLUSION

Crude probabilities presented here may be useful in helping clinicians and their patients better understand prognoses and make informed decisions about treatment. They also provide novel insights into the relative contributions that early detection and improved treatments have on the observed temporal patterns in cancer survival.

Systematic review and meta-analysis of residential radon and lung cancer in never-smokers

Background

Globally, radon is the leading risk factor for lung cancer in never-smokers (LCINS). In this study, we systematically reviewed and meta-analysed the evidence of the risk of LCINS associated with residential radon exposure.

Methods

Medline and Embase databases were searched using predefined inclusion and exclusion criteria to identify relevant studies published from 1 January 1990 to 5 March 2020 focused on never-smokers. We identified four pooled collaborative studies (incorporating data from 24 case–control studies), one case–control study and one cohort study for systematic review. Meta-analysis was performed on the results of the four pooled studies due to different measures of effect and outcome reported in the cohort study and insufficient information reported for the case–control study. In a post hoc analysis, the corresponding risk for ever-smokers was also examined.

Results

Risk estimates of lung cancer from residential radon exposure were pooled in the meta-analysis for 2341 never-smoker cases, 8967 never-smoker controls, 9937 ever-smoker cases and 12 463 ever-smoker controls. Adjusted excess relative risks (aERRs) per 100 Bq·m⁻³ of radon level were 0.15 (95% CI 0.06–0.25) for never-smokers and 0.09 (95% CI 0.03–0.16) for ever-smokers, and the difference between them was statistically insignificant (p=0.32). The aERR per 100 Bq·m⁻³was higher for men (0.46; 95% CI 0.15–0.76) than for women (0.09; 95% CI −0.02–0.20) among never-smokers (p=0.027).

Conclusion

This study provided quantified risk estimates for lung cancer from residential radon exposure among both never-smokers and ever-smokers. Among never-smokers in radon-prone areas, men were at higher risk of lung cancer than women.

Globally, radon is the leading cause of lung cancer in never-smokers. Yet its quantified link with lung cancer risk among never-smokers is not known. This study computes the risk estimate of lung cancer from residential radon exposure among never-smokers.https://bit.ly/32frCbq

How Well Have Projected Lung Cancer Rates Predicted the Actual Observed Rates?

Background:

While many past studies have constructed projections of future lung cancer rates, little is known about their consistency with the corresponding observed data for the time period covered by the projections. The aim of this study was to assess the agreement between previously published lung cancer incidence and/or mortality rate projections and observed rates.

Methods:

Published studies were included in the current study if they projected future lung cancer rates for at least 10 years beyond the period for which rates were used to obtain the projections, and if more recent observed rates for comparison covered a minimum of 10 years from the beginning of the projection period. Projected lung cancer incidence and/or mortality rates from these included studies were extracted from the publications. Observed rates were obtained from cancer registries or the World Health Organization’s Mortality Database. Agreement between projected and observed rates was assessed and the relative difference (RD) for each projected rate was calculated as the percentage difference between the projected and observed rates.

Results:

A total of 59 projections reported in 14 studies were included. Nine studies provided projections for 20 years or more. RDs were higher for those projections in which the lung cancer rates peaked during the projection period, and RDs increased substantially with the length of the projection period. When lung cancer rates peaked during the projection period, methods incorporating smoking data were generally more successful at predicting the trend reversal than those which did not incorporate smoking data. Mean RDs for 15-year projections comparing methods with or without smoking data were 12.7% versus 48.0% for males and 8.2% versus 42.3% for females.

Conclusions:

The agreement between projected and observed lung cancer rates is dependent on the trends in the observed rates and characteristics of the population, particularly trends in smoking.

[Protective effect of recombinant adult serine protease inhibitor from Trichinella spiralis on sepsis-associated acute kidney injury in mice]

OBJECTIVE

To investigate the protective effect of recombinant adult serine protease inhibitor from Trichinella spiralis (TsadSPI) on sepsis-associated acute kidney injury in mice.

METHODS

A total of 18 male BALB/c mice were randomly divided into the sham-operation group, the model group, and the TsadSPI treatment group, of 6 mice in each group. Sepsis-associated acute kidney injury was modeled in the model group and TsadSPI treatment group by cecal ligation puncture (CLP), while mice in the sham-operation group were only given exploratory laparotomy without ligation or perforation of the cecum. After 30 min of CLP, mice in the sham-operation group and the model group were intraperitoneally injected with PBS (100 μL), and mice in the TsadSPI treatment group were intraperitoneally injected with PBS (100 μL) containing TsadSPI (2 μg). At 12 h following modeling, the serum levels of alanine aminotransferase (ALT), aspartate aminotransferase (AST), creatinine (Cr) and urea nitrogen (BUN) were measured to assess the liver and kidney functions, and the changes of the mouse kidney structure were observed using HE staining. In addition, the serum levels of tumor necrosis factor (TNF)-α, interleukin (IL)-6, IL-10 and transforming growth factor (TGF)-β were measured using an enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA), and the myeloid differentiation factor 88 (MyD88) and nuclear factor kappa-B (NF-κB) p65 expression was determined in kidney tissues using immunohistochemical staining.

RESULTS

At 12 h following CLP, there were significant differences in the serum levels of ALT (F = 41.031, P < 0.001), AST (F = 54.757, P < 0.001), Cr (F = 24.142, P < 0.001) and BUN (F = 214.849, P < 0.001) among the three groups, and higher levels of ALT, AST, Cr and BUN were measured in model group than in the sham-operation group (P < 0.001), while lower ALT, AST, Cr and BUN levels were found in the TsadSPI treatment group than in the model group (P < 0.001). HE staining showed severe mouse kidney injuries following CLP, and TsadSPI treatment resulted in remarkable alleviation of the injury. ELISA measured significant differences in the TNF-α (F = 47.502, P < 0.001) and IL-6 levels (F = 222.061, P < 0.001) among the three groups, and showed a remarkable reduction in the TNF-α and IL-6 levels in the TsadSPI treatment group as compared to those in the model group (P < 0.001). In addition, there were significant differences in serum IL-10 (F = 16.227, P < 0.001) and TGF-β levels (F = 52.092, P < 0.001) among the three groups, and higher IL-10 and TGF-β levels were seen in the TsadSPI treatment group than in the model group (P < 0.001). Immunohistochemical staining showed greater MyD88 expression and a higher nuclear positive rate of NF-κB p65 in kidney tissues in the model group than in the TsadSPI treatment group.

CONCLUSIONS

TsadSPI may reduce the MyD88 expression and nuclear positive rate of NF-κB p65 in mouse kidney tissues to up-regulate the expression of immunomodulatory factors and down-regulate the expression of pro-inflammatory cytokines, thereby protecting sepsis-associated acute kidney injury.

Quantifying the Number of Cancer Deaths Avoided Due to Improvements in Cancer Survival since the 1980s in the Australian Population, 1985-2014

BACKGROUND

This study quantifies the number of potentially "avoided"cancer deaths due to differences in 10-year relative survival between three time periods, reflecting temporal improvements in cancer diagnostic and/or treatment practices in Australia.

METHODS

National population-based cohort of 2,307,565 Australians ages 15 to 89 years, diagnosed with a primary invasive cancer from 1985 to 2014 with mortality follow-up to December 31, 2015. Excess mortality rates and crude probabilities of cancer deaths were estimated using flexible parametric relative survival models. Crude probabilities were then used to calculate "avoided cancer deaths" (reduced number of cancer deaths within 10 years of diagnosis due to survival changes since 1985-1994) for all cancers and 13 leading cancer types.

RESULTS

For each cancer type, excess mortality (in the cancer cohort vs. the expected population mortality) was significantly lower for more recently diagnosed persons. For all cancers combined, the number of "avoided cancer deaths" (vs. 1985-1994) was 4,877 (1995-2004) and 11,385 (2005-2014) among males. Prostate (1995-2004: 2,144; 2005-2014: 5,099) and female breast cancer (1,127 and 2,048) had the highest number of such deaths, whereas <400 were avoided for pancreatic or lung cancers across each period.

CONCLUSIONS

Screening and early detection likely contributed to the high number of "avoided cancer deaths" for prostate and female breast cancer, whereas early detection remains difficult for lung and pancreatic cancers, highlighting the need for improved preventive and screening measures.

IMPACT

Absolute measures such as "avoided cancer deaths" can provide a more tangible estimate of the improvements in cancer survival than standard net survival measures.

Statistical projection methods for lung cancer incidence and mortality: a systematic review

OBJECTIVES

To identify and summarise all studies using statistical methods to project lung cancer incidence or mortality rates more than 5 years into the future.

STUDY TYPE

Systematic review.

METHODS

We performed a systematic literature search in multiple electronic databases to identify studies published from 1 January 1988 to 14 August 2018, which used statistical methods to project lung cancer incidence and/or mortality rates. Reference lists of relevant articles were checked for additional potentially relevant articles. We developed an organisational framework to classify methods into groups according to the type of data and the statistical models used. Included studies were critically appraised using prespecified criteria.

RESULTS

One hundred and one studies met the inclusion criteria; six studies used more than one statistical method. The number of studies reporting statistical projections for lung cancer increased substantially over time. Eighty-eight studies used projection methods, which did not incorporate data on smoking in the population, and 16 studies used a method which did incorporate data on smoking. Age-period-cohort models (44 studies) were the most commonly used methods, followed by other generalised linear models (35 studies). The majority of models were developed using observed rates for more than 10 years and used data that were considered to be good quality. A quarter of studies provided comparisons of fitted and observed rates. While validation by withholding the most recent observed data from the model and then comparing the projected and observed rates for the most recent period provides important information on the model's performance, only 12 studies reported doing this.

CONCLUSION

This systematic review provides an up-to-date summary of the statistical methods used in published lung cancer incidence or mortality projections. The assessment of the strengths of existing methods will help researchers to better apply and develop statistical methods for projecting lung cancer rates. Some of the common methods described in this review can be applied to the projection of rates for other cancer types or other non-infectious diseases.

Contributions of prognostic factors to socioeconomic disparities in cancer survival: protocol for analysis of a cohort with linked data

INTRODUCTION

Socioeconomic disparities in cancer survival have been reported in many developed countries, including Australia. Although some international studies have investigated the determinants of these socioeconomic disparities, most previous Australian studies have been descriptive, as only limited relevant data are generally available. Here, we describe a protocol for a study to use data from a large-scale Australian cohort linked with several other health-related databases to investigate several groups of factors associated with socioeconomic disparities in cancer survival in New South Wales (NSW), Australia, and quantify their contributions to the survival disparities.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

The Sax Institute's 45 and Up Study participants completed a baseline questionnaire during 2006-2009. Those who were subsequently diagnosed with cancer of the colon, rectum, lung or female breast will be included. This study sample will be identified by linkage with NSW Cancer Registry data for 2006-2013, and their vital status will be determined by linking with cause of death records up to 31 December 2015. The study cohort will be divided into four groups based on each of the individual education level and an area-based socioeconomic measure. The treatment received will be obtained through linking with hospital records and Medicare and pharmaceutical claims data. Cox proportional hazards models will be fitted sequentially to estimate the percentage contributions to overall socioeconomic survival disparities of patient factors, tumour and diagnosis factors, and treatment variables.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

This research is covered by ethical approval from the NSW Population and Health Services Research Ethics Committee. Results of the study will be disseminated to different interest groups and organisations through scientific conferences, social media and peer-reviewed articles.

Combination of LINE-1 hypomethylation and RASSF1A promoter hypermethylation in serum DNA is a non-invasion prognostic biomarker for early recurrence of hepatocellular carcinoma after curative resection

Hepatocarcinogenesis, a multistep process, involves not only genetic mutations but also epigenetic alterations. Widespread of global DNA hypomethylation is accompanied with specific regional hypermethylation especially at tumor suppressor genes' promoters. The aim of this study is to determine the efficacy of combined DNA methylation analysis of a global DNA methylation marker - LINE-1 and a tumor suppressor gene highly associated with the malignancy of HCC- RASSF1A in serum as a novel prognostic marker for diagnosis of early recurrence after curative resection.LINE-1 was hypomethylated in 66.7% (70/105) and RASSF1A promoter was hypermethylated in 73.3% (77/105) of HCC serum DNA samples by methylation specific PCR, but in none of the healthy controls: LINE-1 hypometylation (0/50) and RASSF1A hypermethylation (0/50). A significant association was found between LINE-1 hypomethylation and clinical pathologic features including HBsAg positivity (p=0.009), tumor size (p=0.001) and AFP levels (p<0.001). Besides, significant correlation was detected between RASSF1A promoter hypermethylation and lymph nodes metastasis (p=0.045).The results of Kaplan-Meier estimates of survival suggested that LINE-1 hypomethylation was highly associated with poor survival of patients (disease-free survival p=0.002, overall survival p=0.0123). More importantly, co-evaluation of LINE-1 hypomethylation and RASSF1A promoter hypermethylation was found to be significantly correlated to early recurrence and poor prognosis (disease-free survival p=0.0001, overall survival p=0.05) in patients after curative resection.In conclusion, our study showed that the combined examination of LINE-1 hypomethylation and RASSF1A promoter hypermethylation was effective in predicting early recurrence of HCC after curative resection. Patients with dual positivity of LINE-1 hypomethylation and RASSF1A promoter hypermethylation should be supplied with more intensive care and close follow-up after they undergo tumor resection.

Lung cancer mortality in Australia in the twenty-first century: How many lives can be saved with effective tobacco control?

OBJECTIVES

To estimate the number of past and future lung cancer deaths that have already been averted by tobacco control initiatives in Australia, and to estimate the number of additional deaths averted under various smoking scenarios.

METHODS

We predicted lung cancer mortality rates and case numbers to 2100 using a previously validated generalized linear model based on age, birth cohort and population cigarette smoking exposure. We estimated the impact of various tobacco control scenarios: 'actual tobacco control' (incorporating the aggregate effect of past and current taxation, plain packaging, mass media campaigns and other initiatives) and scenarios where 10%, 5% and 0% smoking prevalence was achieved by 2025, all of which were compared to a counterfactual scenario with the highest historical smoking consumption level continuing into the future as if no tobacco control initiatives had been implemented.

RESULTS

Without tobacco control, there would have been an estimated 392,116 lung cancer deaths over the period 1956-2015; of these 20% (78,925 deaths; 75,839 males, 3086 females) have been averted due to tobacco control. However, if past and current measures continue to have the expected effect, an estimated 1.9 million deaths (1,579,515 males, 320,856 females; 67% of future lung cancer deaths) will be averted in 2016-2100. If smoking prevalence is reduced to 10%, 5% or 0% by 2025, an additional 97,432, 208,714 or 360,557 deaths could be averted from 2016 to 2100, respectively.

CONCLUSION

Tobacco control in Australia has had a dramatic impact on the number of people dying from lung cancer. Several hundred thousand more lung cancer deaths could be averted over the course of the century if close-to-zero smoking prevalence could be achieved in the next decade.

Trends in Colon and Rectal Cancer Incidence in Australia from 1982 to 2014: Analysis of Data on Over 375,000 Cases

BACKGROUND

Colorectal cancer is the third most commonly diagnosed cancer in Australia. Emerging evidence from several countries suggests increasing incidence in people aged <50 years.

METHODS

We assessed colon and rectal cancer incidence trends in people aged 20+ in Australia from 1982 to 2014. We used data on 375,008 incident cases (248,162 colon and 126,846 rectal). We quantified the annual percentage change (APC) in rates by age group using Joinpoint regression.

RESULTS

For people aged <50 years, colon cancer rates increased from the mid-2000s, with the increase in APCs ranging from 1.7% to 9.3% per annum (depending on specific age group); rectal cancer rates increased from the early 1990s, with APCs ranging from 0.9% to 7.1% per annum. For people aged 50 to 69 years, colon and rectal cancer rates decreased from the mid-1990s, with the decrease in APCs in specific age groups ranging from 0.8% to 4.8% per annum (except for colon cancer in those ages 65 to 69 years, where similar rate decreases were observed from 2007). An overall reduction in older persons (>70 years) was estimated at 1.9% to 4.9% per annum for colon cancer from 2010 onward and 1.1% to 1.8% per annum in rectal cancer from the early 2000s onward.

CONCLUSIONS

Colon and rectal cancer incidence has increased in people aged <50 years in Australia over the last two decades. However, colon and rectal cancer rates decreased in people aged 50+, likely due to de facto and organized bowel cancer screening.

IMPACT

Further research is needed to examine the cause of the increase and to quantify the impact of future trends on the cost-effectiveness of population-based screening for those <50 years.

Optimal expression and purification of sapelovirus A structural protein VP1, and its immunogenicity in mice

Sapelovirus A (SV-A) is a positive-sense single-stranded RNA virus which is associated with acute diarrhea, pneumonia and reproductive disorders. The virus capsid is composed of four proteins, and the functions of the structural proteins are unclear. In this study, we expressed SV-A structural protein VP1 and studied its antigenicity and immunogenicity. SDS-PAGE analysis revealed that the target gene was expressed at high levels at 0.6 mM concentration of IPTG for 24 h. The mouse polyclonal antibody against SV-A VP1 protein was produced and reached a high antiserum titer (1: 2,048,000). Immunized mice sera with the recombinant SV-A VP1 protein showed specific recognition of purified VP1 protein by western blot assay and could recognize native SV-A VP1 protein in PK-15 cells infected with SV-A by indirect immunofluorescence assay. The successfully purified recombinant protein was able to preserve its antigenic determinants and the generated mouse anti-SV-A VP1 antibodies could recognize native SV-A, which may have the potential to be used to detect SV-A infection in pigs.

Lung cancer mortality in Australia: Projected outcomes to 2040

OBJECTIVES

The aim was to develop and validate a statistical model which uses past trends for lung cancer mortality and historical and current data on tobacco consumption to project lung cancer mortality rates into the future for Australia.

METHODS

We used generalized linear models (GLMs) with Poisson distribution including either age, birth cohort or period, and/or various measures of population tobacco exposure (considering cross-sectional smoking prevalence, cigarettes smoked and tar exposure per capita). Sex-specific models were fitted to data for 1956-2015 and age-standardized lung cancer mortality rates were projected forward to 2040. Possible lags of 20-30 years between tobacco exposure and lung cancer mortality were examined. The best model was selected using analysis of deviance. To validate the selected model, we temporarily re-fitted it to data for 1956-1990 and compared the projected rates to 2015 with the observed rates for 1991-2015.

RESULTS

The best fitting model used information on age, birth cohort and tar exposure per capita; close concordance with the observed data was achieved in the validation. The forward projections for lung cancer mortality using this model indicate that male and female age-standardized rates will decline over the period 2011-2015 to 2036-2040 from 27.2 to 15.1 per 100,000, and 15.8 to 11.8 per 100,000, respectively. However, due to population growth and ageing the number of deaths will increase by 7.9% for males and 57.9% for females; from 41,040 (24,831 males, 16,209 females) in 2011-2015 to 52,403 (26,805 males, 25,598 females) in 2036-2040.

CONCLUSION

In the context of the mature tobacco epidemic with past peaks in tobacco consumption for both males and females, lung cancer mortality rates are expected to continually decline over the next 25 years. However, the number of lung cancer deaths will continue to be substantial, and to increase, in Australia's ageing population.

Patterns of care of nonsmall cell lung cancer patients in China and implications for survival

Purpose

We reported the patterns of care for a cohort of Chinese patients with nonsmall cell lung cancer (NSCLC) and examined the characteristics of those patients who did not receive cancer-specific treatment.

Materials and Methods

This was a prospective cohort study. The study population was patients with first primary NSCLC diagnosed and admitted to Hebei Cancer Hospital in Hebei Province in China from January 2004 to December 2005. Logistic regression was used to examine factors associated with no cancer-specific treatment. Cox proportional hazard regression was used to examine the effects of cancer treatment on survival.

Results

Of 579 NSCLC patients included in the study, 73.4% were male, 84.3% died by the end of the study after 7 years follow-up, 40.1% were diagnosed at a late stage of disease, and 33.7% had unknown disease stage. Over half (50.8%) of the patients received palliative care, 23.8% for curative care, and 25.4% did not receive any cancer-specific treatment. The probability of not receiving cancer-specific treatment was significantly higher for those who diagnosed at older age (odds ratio [OR] =3.01, 95% confidence interval [95% CI]: 1.79-5.06), had unknown stage at diagnosis (OR = 2.77, 95% CI: 1.41-5.47), or had unclassified histological type (OR = 3.48, 95% CI: 1.94-6.21). After adjusted for other factors, patients received anti-cancer treatment had significantly lower risk of dying from NSCLC P < 0.0001) compared with patients who did not receive any cancer-specific treatment.

Conclusions

Despite the benefits of anti-cancer treatments confirmed in this study, over a quarter patients did not receive any such treatment. Finding the reasons for the patients who did not receive cancer-specific treatment may improve the quality of patient care in this population.

Increased risk of suicide in New South Wales men with prostate cancer: Analysis of linked population-wide data

Background

An elevated risk of suicide after a diagnosis of prostate cancer has been reported previously in the USA and Sweden. We aimed to identify whether prostate cancer survivors resident in New South Wales Australia are at higher risk of suicide and if so, who is most at risk.

Methods

Data were obtained from the New South Wales (NSW) Cancer Registry for all men diagnosed with prostate cancer in NSW during 1997 to 2007. These were linked by the Centre for Health Record Linkage (CHeReL) to Australian Bureau of Statistics Mortality Data to the end of 2007 to determine vital status and cause of death. We compared the number of suicides observed for prostate cancer survivors with the expected number of suicides based on age- and calendar year- specific rates for the NSW male population using standardised mortality ratios (SMRs). Suicide rate ratios (RR) by disease and patients’ characteristics were estimated using multivariable negative binomial regression to determine the most at risk groups.

Results

During the study period 51,924 NSW men were diagnosed with prostate cancer. Forty nine of these men were subsequently recorded as committing suicide up to 10 years after diagnosis with an SMR of 1.70 (95% CI:1.26–2.25). Twenty six (53%) of these suicides occurred within 12 months after diagnosis. Risk diminished over time since diagnosis (RR in 1–2 years after diagnosis = 0.29, 95% CI: 0.12–0.71, 2–4 years RR = 0.30, 95% CI: 0.14–0.16 and 4+ years RR = 0.26, 95% CI: 0.11–0.60 compared with <1 year since diagnosis). Men with non-localised disease had a higher risk of suicide compared to men with localised disease (RR = 2.68, 95% CI: 1.15–6.23). Men living outside major cities had lower risk of suicide compared to those resident in major cities (rate ratio = 0.42, 95% CI: 0.20–0.87). Single, divorced, widowed or separated men were more likely to commit suicide than married men (RR = 4.18, 95% CI: 2.36–7.42).

Conclusion

Risk of suicide is higher for NSW men diagnosed with prostate cancer than the general age matched male population. Vulnerable or lonely men and those with pre-existing depression or suicidal ideation who are diagnosed with prostate cancer should be offered additional psychological support.