Consortium neuroscience of attention deficit/hyperactivity disorder and autism spectrum disorder: The ENIGMA adventure

Neuroimaging has been extensively used to study brain structure and function in individuals with attention deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) and autism spectrum disorder (ASD) over the past decades. Two of the main shortcomings of the neuroimaging literature of these disorders are the small sample sizes employed and the heterogeneity of methods used. In 2013 and 2014, the ENIGMA-ADHD and ENIGMA-ASD working groups were respectively, founded with a common goal to address these limitations. Here, we provide a narrative review of the thus far completed and still ongoing projects of these working groups. Due to an implicitly hierarchical psychiatric diagnostic classification system, the fields of ADHD and ASD have developed largely in isolation, despite the considerable overlap in the occurrence of the disorders. The collaboration between the ENIGMA-ADHD and -ASD working groups seeks to bring the neuroimaging efforts of the two disorders closer together. The outcomes of case-control studies of subcortical and cortical structures showed that subcortical volumes are similarly affected in ASD and ADHD, albeit with small effect sizes. Cortical analyses identified unique differences in each disorder, but also considerable overlap between the two, specifically in cortical thickness. Ongoing work is examining alternative research questions, such as brain laterality, prediction of case-control status, and anatomical heterogeneity. In brief, great strides have been made toward fulfilling the aims of the ENIGMA collaborations, while new ideas and follow-up analyses continue that include more imaging modalities (diffusion MRI and resting-state functional MRI), collaborations with other large databases, and samples with dual diagnoses.

Machine-Learning prediction of comorbid substance use disorders in ADHD youth using Swedish registry data

BACKGROUND

Children with attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) have a high risk for substance use disorders (SUDs). Early identification of at-risk youth would help allocate scarce resources for prevention programs.

METHODS

Psychiatric and somatic diagnoses, family history of these disorders, measures of socioeconomic distress, and information about birth complications were obtained from the national registers in Sweden for 19,787 children with ADHD born between 1989 and 1993. We trained (a) a cross-sectional random forest (RF) model using data available by age 17 to predict SUD diagnosis between ages 18 and 19; and (b) a longitudinal recurrent neural network (RNN) model with the Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) architecture to predict new diagnoses at each age.

RESULTS

The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) was 0.73(95%CI 0.70-0.76) for the random forest model (RF). Removing prior diagnosis from the predictors, the RF model was still able to achieve significant AUCs when predicting all SUD diagnoses (0.69, 95%CI 0.66-0.72) or new diagnoses (0.67, 95%CI: 0.64, 0.71) during age 18-19. For the model predicting new diagnoses, model calibration was good with a low Brier score of 0.086. Longitudinal LSTM model was able to predict later SUD risks at as early as 2 years age, 10 years before the earliest diagnosis. The average AUC from longitudinal models predicting new diagnoses 1, 2, 5 and 10 years in the future was 0.63.

CONCLUSIONS

Population registry data can be used to predict at-risk comorbid SUDs in individuals with ADHD. Such predictions can be made many years prior to age of the onset, and their SUD risks can be monitored using longitudinal models over years during child development. Nevertheless, more work is needed to create prediction models based on electronic health records or linked population registers that are sufficiently accurate for use in the clinic.