Evaluation of the mid- and long-term effects of a private car driving-restriction policy under the carbon emission peak target

To investigate the medium- and long-term effects of a driving-restriction policy under the guidance of carbon emission peak goals, Beijing was taken as an example to construct a private-car energy-conservation and emission-reduction model with dual-driving factors from the perspective of the economy, environment, technology, and energy. Through causal analysis, the negative effects of a driving-restriction policy were revealed. The simulation results revealed the following. (1) A driving-restriction policy is effective in the short term, but in the long run, it cannot effectively reduce CO2 emissions and the quantity of fuel used in private cars (e.g., the increase in the amount of CO2 pollution and degree of parking space tension, as well as the rebound of air pollution). (2) Compared with the driving-restriction policy, the combined policy reduces the amount of CO2 pollution by approximately 52.45%, the PM2.5 concentration by 21.98%, and the quantity of fuel in private cars by 33.42% by 2035, while improving the air quality by approximately 144.79%. Therefore, this article provides a theoretical basis for optimizing driving-restriction policies and achieving the carbon emission peak target.