An agent-based model with antibody dynamics information in COVID-19 epidemic simulation

Accurate prediction of the temporal and spatial characteristics of COVID-19 infection is of paramount importance for effective epidemic prevention and control. In order to accomplish this objective, we incorporated individual antibody dynamics into an agent-based model and devised a methodology that encompasses the dynamic behaviors of each individual, thereby explicitly capturing the count and spatial distribution of infected individuals with varying symptoms at distinct time points. Our model also permits the evaluation of diverse prevention and control measures. Based on our findings, the widespread employment of nucleic acid testing and the implementation of quarantine measures for positive cases and their close contacts in China have yielded remarkable outcomes in curtailing a less transmissible yet more virulent strain; however, they may prove inadequate against highly transmissible and less virulent variants. Additionally, our model excels in its ability to trace back to the initial infected case (patient zero) through early epidemic patterns. Ultimately, our model extends the frontiers of traditional epidemiological simulation methodologies and offers an alternative approach to epidemic modeling.

Exploring the dynamics of Borrelia burgdorferi sensu lato antibodies-a registry-based study on laboratory data from Sweden and Denmark

OBJECTIVES

Lyme borreliosis (LB) is the most common tick-transmitted infection in the northern hemisphere and is caused by bacteria in the Borrelia burgdorferi sensu lato (Bbsl)-complex. The diagnosis is partially based on serology, and clinicians often take follow-up serum samples to look for seroconversion or an increase in IgG-antibody levels. In this registry-based study, we proposed a method for determining actual changes in IgG and examined antibody reactivity and decay.

METHODS

Serological data from the departments of clinical microbiology at Karlstad Hospital, Sweden, and Slagelse Hospital, Denmark, were used to calculate a seroreactivity cut-off (SCOFF), above which changes between two samples from the patient cannot be explained by random variation. Increases in IgG reactivity as well as IgG and IgM decay were illustrated using time-to-event analysis and the SCOFF.

RESULTS

A total of 44,861 serum samples from 34,157 patients were tested for Bbsl-antibodies. Of the 4301 patients with follow-up samples taken within 100 days, 201 (4.67%) were above the SCOFF of 1.42 with a median time to follow-up sample of 36 days (interquartile range: 21). IgG demonstrated longer median time for all antibody levels (indeterminate: 4.6 years, low: 7.0 years, moderate-high: 8.8 years) than IgM antibodies (indeterminate: 2.1 years, low: 3.9 years, moderate-high: 6.8 years) and higher initial antibody levels persisted significantly longer for both IgG and IgM antibodies (p < 0.001). Of the 7868 patients with follow-up samples, isolated IgM reactivity preceded an increase in IgG reactivity in 18 patients (0.23%).

DISCUSSION

The SCOFF indicated little biological and random variation for Bbsl-specific IgG antibodies on the platforms used during the study. In most follow-up samples, both IgG and IgM antibodies persisted for years, with longer seropositivity associated with high initial antibody levels and IgG-type antibodies. The diagnostic value of isolated IgM reactivity was limited.

Probing Conformational Dynamics of Antibodies with Geometric Simulations

This chapter describes the application of constrained geometric simulations for prediction of antibody structural dynamics. We utilize constrained geometric simulations method FRODAN, which is a low computational complexity alternative to molecular dynamics (MD) simulations that can rapidly explore flexible motions in protein structures. FRODAN is highly suited for conformational dynamics analysis of large proteins, complexes, intrinsically disordered proteins, and dynamics that occurs on longer biologically relevant time scales that are normally inaccessible to classical MD simulations. This approach predicts protein dynamics at an all-atom scale while retaining realistic covalent bonding, maintaining dihedral angles in energetically good conformations while avoiding steric clashes in addition to performing other geometric and stereochemical criteria checks. In this chapter, we apply FRODAN to showcase its applicability for probing functionally relevant dynamics of IgG2a, including large-amplitude domain-domain motions and motions of complementarity determining region (CDR) loops. As was suggested in previous experimental studies, our simulations show that antibodies can explore a large range of conformational space.

Longitudinal assessment of anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibody dynamics and clinical features following convalescence from a COVID-19 infection

Introduction

The longevity of antibody levels against severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) and the duration of immunity are current topics of major scientific interest. Antibody kinetics during the acute phase are well studied, whereas the long-term kinetics are yet to be determined, with contradictory results from the studies to date. Here, we present a longitudinal analysis of the serological responses to a SARS-CoV-2 infection following convalescence and the association with post-COVID syndrome (PCS).

Materials and methods

A total of 237 serum samples were prospectively collected from 61 participants who had had a SARS-CoV-2 infection, which was confirmed using quantitative reverse-transcription polymerase chain reaction (qRT-PCR). For each participant, anti-nucleocapsid (N) and anti-spike subunit 1 receptor binding domain (RBD/S1) immunoglobulin (Ig) levels were regularly determined over a period of 8 months. COVID-19-associated symptoms were assessed using a standardized questionnaire at study entry and again after 6 months.

Results

Antibodies were detectable in 56 of the 61 participants. No substantial decline in anti-SARS-CoV-2 pan-Ig levels was observed for the duration of the follow-up period. Antibody levels correlated positively with the disease severity, body mass index, fever, and smoking status. It was found that 46.8% of the participants suffered from PCS, with olfactory and gustatory dysfunctions being the most commonly reported symptoms.

Conclusion

The results demonstrate stable anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibody titers and thus may indicate a long-lasting immunity. The results are in line with recently published data and provide further insight concerning asymptomatic to mildly-affected patients, the association with clinical features, and the frequency of PCS.

Antibody Dynamics for Plasmodium vivax Malaria: A Mathematical Model

Malaria is a mosquito-borne disease that, despite intensive control and mitigation initiatives, continues to pose an enormous public health burden. Plasmodium vivax is one of the principal causes of malaria in humans. Antibodies, which play a fundamental role in the host response to P. vivax, are acquired through exposure to the parasite. Here, we introduce a stochastic, within-host model of antibody responses to P. vivax for an individual in a general transmission setting. We begin by developing an epidemiological framework accounting for P. vivax infections resulting from new mosquito bites (primary infections), as well as the activation of dormant-liver stages known as hypnozoites (relapses). By constructing an infinite server queue, we obtain analytic results for the distribution of relapses in a general transmission setting. We then consider a simple model of antibody kinetics, whereby antibodies are boosted with each infection, but are subject to decay over time. By embedding this model for antibody kinetics in the epidemiological framework using a generalised shot noise process, we derive analytic expressions governing the distribution of antibody levels for a single individual in a general transmission setting. Our work provides a means to explore exposure-dependent antibody dynamics for P. vivax, with the potential to address key questions in the context of serological surveillance and acquired immunity.

Mild Cytokine Elevation, Moderate CD4+ T Cell Response and Abundant Antibody Production in Children with COVID-19

Children with Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) were reported to show milder symptoms and better prognosis than their adult counterparts, but the difference of immune response against SARS-CoV-2 between children and adults hasn’t been reported. Therefore we initiated this study to figure out the features of immune response in children with COVID-19. Sera and whole blood cells from 19 children with COVID-19 during different phases after disease onset were collected. The cytokine concentrations, SARS-CoV-2 S-RBD or N-specific antibodies and T cell immune responses were detected respectively. In children with COVID-19, only 3 of 12 cytokines were increased in acute sera, including interferon (IFN)-γ-induced protein 10 (IP10), interleukin (IL)-10 and IL-16. We observed an increase in T helper (Th)-2 cells and a suppression in regulatory T cells (Treg) in patients during acute phase, but no significant response was found in the IFN-γ-producing or tumor necrosis factor (TNF)-α-producing CD8⁺T cells in patients. S-RBD and N IgM showed an early induction, while S-RBD and N IgG were prominently induced later in convalescent phase. Potent S-RBD IgA response was observed but N IgA seemed to be inconspicuous. Children with COVID-19 displayed an immunophenotype that is less inflammatory than adults, including unremarkable cytokine elevation, moderate CD4⁺ T cell response and inactive CD8⁺ T cell response, but their humoral immunity against SARS-CoV-2 were as strong as adults. Our finding presented immunological characteristics of children with COVID-19 and might give some clues as to why children develop less severe disease than adults.

Antibodies to human papillomavirus types 6, 11, 16 and 18: Vertical transmission and clearance in children up to two years of age

Background: There is a paucity of data on the dynamics of human papillomavirus (HPV) antibodies in children. We aimed to describe the vertical transmission and clearance of antibodies against HPV6, 11, 16 and 18 in children. Methods: We used data from pregnant women recruited into the HERITAGE cohort study between 2009 and 2012 who were positive for HPV-DNA at baseline. Dried blood spots were collected during the first trimester in pregnant participants, and at birth, 6, 12, and 24 months of age in children. The level of total immunoglobulin G (IgG) against HPV6, 11, 16 and 18 were measured using Luminex immunoassays. Spearman's coefficients were used to correlate HPV antibody levels between newborns and mothers. Panel and Kaplan-Meier graphics described antibody dynamics in the first 24 months of life. Findings: Antibodies from newborns and mothers (n = 58 pairs) were moderately to highly correlated with coefficients of 0·81 (95% confidence intervals (CI):0·70-0·88), 0·68 (95% CI:0·5-0·80), 0·90 (95% CI:0·83-0·94) and 0·85 (95% CI:0·76-0·91) against HPV6, 11, 16 and 18, respectively. In newborns seropositive at birth, anti-HPV antibodies were cleared by 80% and 100% at 12 and 24 months, respectively. Only two children presented detectable HPV antibodies at 24 months. The first child had no detectable antibodies at birth and the second presented increasing levels after two undetected measures. Interpretation: Correlation between mother and newborn IgG antibodies against HPV suggests vertical transfer. Most children cleared anti-HPV antibodies within six to 12 months. Funding: The Canadian Institutes of Health Research (CIHR).

Dynamics and role of antibodies to Plasmodium falciparum merozoite antigens in children living in two settings with differing malaria transmission intensity

BACKGROUND

Young infants have reduced susceptibility to febrile malaria compared with older children, but the mechanism for this remains unclear. There are conflicting data on the role of passively acquired antibodies. Here, we examine antibody titres to merozoite surface antigens in the protection of children in their first two years of life in two settings with differing malaria transmission intensity and compare these titres to previously established protective thresholds.

METHODS

Two cohorts of children aged four to six weeks were recruited in Banfora, Burkina and Keur Soce, Senegal and followed up for two years. Malaria infections were detected by light microscopic examination of blood smears collected at active and passive case detection visits. The titres of antibodies to the Plasmodium falciparum recombinant merozoite proteins (AMA1-3D7, MSP1-19, MSP2-Dd2, and MSP3-3D7) were measured by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay at 1-6, 9, 12, 15 and 18 months of age and compared with the protective thresholds established in Kenyan children.

RESULTS

Antibody titres were below the protective thresholds throughout the study period and we did not find any association with protection against febrile malaria. Antibodies to AMA1 and MSP1-19 appeared to be markers of exposure in the univariate analysis (and so associated with increasing risk) and adjusting for exposure reduced the strength and significance of this association.

CONCLUSION

The antibody levels we measured are unlikely to be responsible for the apparent protection against febrile malaria seen in young infants. Further work to identify protective antibody responses might include functional assays and a wider range of antigens.