The cost of (Un)regulation: Shrinking Earth's orbits and the need for sustainable space governance

Outer space is infinite, useable planetary orbits are not. This makes the Earth's orbit a unique case of an Area Beyond National Jurisdiction (ABNJ) complex to address, difficult to use in a sustainable and equitable way and almost intractable to regulate at an international level. As of 2023, we remain far from attaining a sustainable orbital environment, and future uses of the Earth's orbits for new satellites constellations appear now increasingly at risk. Adopting a probability-based empirical model to project the growth trajectory of objects in space, this article argues that the sector will cross a 'critical density' threshold within the upcoming years unless strong remedial actions to clear up the orbits are implemented and estimates the potential costs of active debris removal measures. Our findings suggest that orbital sustainability is unlikely to come from technology alone, no matter how advanced or ground-breaking. A long-term solution will necessarily require a radical rewriting of the outdated, often conflicting international regulatory framework, which contributed to creating this debris crisis in the first place, shrinking the Earth's orbit to (almost) the point of no return.

Towards a scientific community consensus on designating Vulnerable Marine Ecosystems from imagery

Management of deep-sea fisheries in areas beyond national jurisdiction by Regional Fisheries Management Organizations/Arrangements (RFMO/As) requires identification of areas with Vulnerable Marine Ecosystems (VMEs). Currently, fisheries data, including trawl and longline bycatch data, are used by many RFMO/As to inform the identification of VMEs. However, the collection of such data creates impacts and there is a need to collect non-invasive data for VME identification and monitoring purposes. Imagery data from scientific surveys satisfies this requirement, but there currently is no established framework for identifying VMEs from images. Thus, the goal of this study was to bring together a large international team to determine current VME assessment protocols and establish preliminary global consensus guidelines for identifying VMEs from images. An initial assessment showed a lack of consistency among RFMO/A regions regarding what is considered a VME indicator taxon, and hence variability in how VMEs might be defined. In certain cases, experts agreed that a VME could be identified from a single image, most often in areas of scleractinian reefs, dense octocoral gardens, multiple VME species' co-occurrence, and chemosynthetic ecosystems. A decision flow chart is presented that gives practical interpretation of the FAO criteria for single images. To further evaluate steps of the flow chart related to density, data were compiled to assess whether scientists perceived similar density thresholds across regions. The range of observed densities and the density values considered to be VMEs varied considerably by taxon, but in many cases, there was a statistical difference in what experts considered to be a VME compared to images not considered a VME. Further work is required to develop an areal extent index, to include a measure of confidence, and to increase our understanding of what levels of density and diversity correspond to key ecosystem functions for VME indicator taxa. Based on our results, the following recommendations are made: 1. There is a need to establish a global consensus on which taxa are VME indicators. 2. RFMO/As should consider adopting guidelines that use imagery surveys as an alternative (or complement) to using bycatch and trawl surveys for designating VMEs. 3. Imagery surveys should also be included in Impact Assessments. And 4. All industries that impact the seafloor, not just fisheries, should use imagery surveys to detect and identify VMEs.

Estimating the impact of new high seas activities on the environment: the effects of ocean-surface macroplastic removal on sea surface ecosystems

The open ocean beyond national jurisdiction covers nearly half of Earth's surface and is largely unexplored. It is also an emerging frontier for new types of human activity. Understanding how new activities interact with high seas ecosystems is critical for our management of this other half of Earth. Using The Ocean Cleanup (TOC) as a model, we demonstrate why it is important to account for uncertainty when assessing and evaluating impacts of novel high seas activities on marine ecosystems. TOC's aim is to remove plastic from the ocean surface by collecting it with large nets. However, this approach also results in the collection of surface marine life (neuston) as by-catch. Using an interdisciplinary approach, we explore the social-ecological implications of this activity. We use population models to quantify potential impacts on the surface ecosystem; we determine the links between these ecosystems and society through an ecosystem services approach; and we review the governance setting relevant to the management of activities on the high seas. We show that the impact of ocean surface plastic removal largely depends on neuston life histories, and ranges from potentially mild to severe. We identify broader social-ecological implications that could be felt by stakeholders both beyond and within national jurisdiction. The legal framework applicable to TOC's activities is insufficiently specific to address both the ecological and social uncertainty we describe, demonstrating the urgent need for detailed rules and procedures on environmental impact assessment and strategic environmental assessment to be adopted under the new International Agreement on the conservation and sustainable use of marine biological diversity of areas beyond national jurisdiction which is currently being negotiated.

The modeled distribution of corals and sponges surrounding the Salas y Gómez and Nazca ridges with implications for high seas conservation

The Salas y Gómez and Nazca ridges are two adjacent seamount chains off the west coast of South America that collectively contain more than 110 seamounts. The ridges support an exceptionally rich diversity of benthic and pelagic communities, with the highest level of endemism found in any marine environment. Despite some historical fishing in the region, the seamounts are relatively pristine and represent an excellent conservation opportunity to protect a global biodiversity hotspot before it is degraded. One obstacle to effective spatial management of the ridges is the scarcity of direct observations in deeper waters throughout the region and an accompanying understanding of the distribution of key taxa. Species distribution models are increasingly used tools to quantify the distributions of species in data-poor environments. Here, we focused on modeling the distribution of demosponges, glass sponges, and stony corals, three foundation taxa that support large assemblages of associated fauna through the creation of complex habitat structures. Models were constructed at a 1 km2 resolution using presence and pseudoabsence data, dissolved oxygen, nitrate, phosphate, silicate, aragonite saturation state, and several measures of seafloor topography. Highly suitable habitat for each taxa was predicted to occur throughout the Salas y Gómez and Nazca ridges, with the most suitable habitat occurring in small patches on large terrain features such as seamounts, guyots, ridges, and escarpments. Determining the spatial distribution of these three taxa is a critical first step towards supporting the improved spatial management of the region. While the total area of highly suitable habitat was small, our results showed that nearly all of the seamounts in this region provide suitable habitats for deep-water corals and sponges and should therefore be protected from exploitation using the best available conservation measures.

Australia's interaction with Asian countries in the negotiation for an international agreement for the marine biodiversity of areas beyond national jurisdiction

This article highlights Australia's interaction with Asian countries in the development of an international legal instrument on marine biodiversity in areas beyond national jurisdiction (ABNJ). An intergovernmental conference with four planned sessions is currently going on under the auspices of the United Nation's General Assembly (UNGA) for the adoption of a new legal instrument under the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS). Although there is literature on how Australia and Asia have forged closer engagement on matters of trade, security and culture, literature is scarce on how and in what way they can engage in promoting the conservation of ABNJ. In terms of marine environmental discussion, Australia appears to date overall to have aligned itself closely to other western countries and some developed Asian countries. This article examines the potential scope for increased collaboration with Asia on reaching future legal agreement with respect to ABNJ.