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Ji Y, Zeng S, Liu X, Xia J. Mutual inhibition effects of elevated CO 2 and climate change on global forest GPP. Environ Res 2024; 252:119145. [PMID: 38754610 DOI: 10.1016/j.envres.2024.119145] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/07/2024] [Revised: 05/12/2024] [Accepted: 05/13/2024] [Indexed: 05/18/2024]
Abstract
The impact of CO2 fertilization on enhancing global forest gross primary productivity (GPP) is acknowledged, but its interaction with climate factors-air temperature (Tem), precipitation (Pre), vapor pressure deficit (VPD), and radiation (Rad)-remains unclear. In this study, global forest GPP trends from 1982 to 2018 were examined using BEPS, NIRv, FLUXCOM, and revised EC-LUE datasets, with interannual trends of 5.618 (p < 0.01), 5.831 (p < 0.01), 0.227, and 6.566 g C m-2 yr-1 (p < 0.01), respectively. Elevated CO2 was identified as the primary driver of GPP trends, with the dominant area ranging from 51.11% to 90.37% across different GPP datasets. In the NIRv and revised EC-LUE datasets, the positive impact of CO2 on GPP showed a decrease of 0.222 g C m-2 yr-1, while the negative impact of Rad increased by 0.007 g C m-2 yr-1. An inhibitory relationship was found between the actual effects of elevated CO2 and climate change on GPP in most forest types. At lower latitudes, Tem primarily constrained CO2 fertilization, while at higher latitudes, VPD emerged as the key limiting factor. This was mainly attributed to the potential trade-off or competition between elevated CO2 and climate change in influencing GPP, with strategic resource allocation varying across different forest ecosystems. This study highlights the significant inhibitory effects of elevated CO2 and climate change on global forest GPP, providing insights into the dynamic responses of forest ecosystems to changing environments.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yongyue Ji
- Chongqing Institute of Green and Intelligent Technology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Chongqing, 400714, China; Chongqing School, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Chongqing, 400714, China
| | - Sidong Zeng
- Chongqing Institute of Green and Intelligent Technology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Chongqing, 400714, China; Chongqing School, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Chongqing, 400714, China.
| | - Xin Liu
- Chongqing Institute of Green and Intelligent Technology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Chongqing, 400714, China; Chongqing School, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Chongqing, 400714, China
| | - Jun Xia
- State Key Laboratory of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering Science, Wuhan University, Wuhan, 430072, China
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Cannone N, Malfasi F. Climate change triggered synchronous woody plants recruitment in the last two centuries in the treeline ecotone of the Northern Hemisphere. Sci Total Environ 2024; 921:170953. [PMID: 38365041 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.170953] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/16/2023] [Revised: 02/01/2024] [Accepted: 02/11/2024] [Indexed: 02/18/2024]
Abstract
Climate change triggers several ecosystem responses, including woody plant encroachment. We analyse woody plant recruitment across the treeline ecotone (the forest-tundra ecotone) of the Northern Hemisphere (NH) over an extended period (1801-2010) and its relation with atmospheric CO2 and air temperature. We detected a synchronous trend of woody plant recruitment across the NH, indicating a major climatic and environmental change, triggered by a combination of CO2 fertilization and air temperature changes. The drivers of woody plant recruitment changed with time: CO2 fertilization was the main driver in the period 1801-1950, while air temperature was the main driver after 1950, despite the drastic acceleration of CO2 increase in the last decades. These data support the hypothesis that we are shifting from a fertilization-dominated to a warming-dominated period. The temporal patterns of woody plant recruitment are consistent with the occurrence of the 1980 regime shift, a major change occurred in the Earth's biophysical systems. Indeed, the recruitment drop promoted by the 1960s-1980s air cooling, was followed by an intensive recruitment increase triggered by the restart of air warming in the last decades. The largest sensitivity and fastest resilience of evergreen and Pinaceae to the restart of air warming allows to hypothesize that, among the woody plant functional and taxonomic groups, they could perform the largest expansion also in future decades.
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Affiliation(s)
- N Cannone
- Università degli Studi dell'Insubria, Dip. Scienze Teoriche e Applicate, Via J.H. Dunant 2, 21100 Varese, Italy; Climate Change Research Center, Insubria University, Via Sant'Abbondio 12, 22100 Como, Italy.
| | - F Malfasi
- Università degli Studi dell'Insubria, Dip. Scienza e Alta Tecnologia, Via Valleggio 11, 22100 Como, Italy; Climate Change Research Center, Insubria University, Via Sant'Abbondio 12, 22100 Como, Italy
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Sun B, Wang W, Liu G, Li H. Projecting the impact of climate change and elevated CO 2 concentration on rice irrigation water requirement in China. Sci Total Environ 2024; 912:168489. [PMID: 37996038 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.168489] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/15/2023] [Revised: 11/09/2023] [Accepted: 11/09/2023] [Indexed: 11/25/2023]
Abstract
Climate change and elevated CO2 concentrations significantly affect rice growth and water consumption. Understanding the specific impacts of climate change and elevated CO2 concentrations on rice physiological phenology, crop water demand (ETC), and irrigation water requirement (IR) is of great significance for the sustainable utilization of water resources and food security. This is particularly true in China, the world's largest rice producer. In this study, with the help of two rice phenological models, the modified Penman-Monteith equation, and the paddy water balance model, we project the changes in rice phenological period, ETC, and IR in four main rice-producing regions of China in the period 2015-2100 based on the 11 GCM outputs. The results show that the rice growing period is shortened in most rice-producing regions, except for the parts of the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River. Meanwhile, the trend of ETC and IR of rice varies slightly among regions in the future scenario, with almost all regions decreasing yearly except for the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, where the trend is increasing. The progressively increasing atmospheric CO2 concentration has a "fertilization effect" on the crop, which can reduce the water requirements of rice. In the SSP585 scenario, the " CO2 fertilization effect" can reduce up to 8.87 × 108 m3 of ETC and 6.94 × 108 m3 of IR in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River in the period of 2090s. This study provides beneficial references to understand the response of rice ETC and IR to future climate change and CO2 concentration elevation in China and highlights that the simulation in terms of crop irrigation must account for the "CO2 fertilization effect".
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Affiliation(s)
- Bokai Sun
- The National Key Laboratory of Water Disaster Prevention, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China; College of Hydrology and Water Resources, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China
| | - Weiguang Wang
- The National Key Laboratory of Water Disaster Prevention, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China; College of Hydrology and Water Resources, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China.
| | - Guoshuai Liu
- The National Key Laboratory of Water Disaster Prevention, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China; College of Agricultural Science and Engineering, Hohai University, 211100 Nanjing, China.
| | - Hongbin Li
- The National Key Laboratory of Water Disaster Prevention, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China; College of Hydrology and Water Resources, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China
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Kong R, Zhang Z, Yu Z, Huang R, Zhang Y, Chen X, Xu CY. Increasing sensitivity of dryland water use efficiency to soil water content due to rising atmospheric CO 2. Sci Total Environ 2023; 905:167087. [PMID: 37716683 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.167087] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/23/2023] [Revised: 09/02/2023] [Accepted: 09/13/2023] [Indexed: 09/18/2023]
Abstract
Examining the intricate interplay between ecosystem carbon-water coupling and soil moisture sensitivity serves as a crucial approach to effectively assess the dilemma arising from escalating global carbon emissions and concomitant water scarcity. Using the Lund-Potsdam-Jena Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (LPJ), this study investigated the potential effects of climate change and soil water content (SWC) on terrestrial ecosystem water use efficiency (WUE) across China from 1982 to 2060. The results revealed that: (1) WUE was higher in South China and Northeast China, but lower in Northwest China and it had shown a significant upward trend in the past 40 years, especially in Northwest China where grasslands were widely distributed. The increase in WUE was mainly closely related to the greening of vegetation. In the past 40 years, the area of net primary productivity (NPP), evapotranspiration (ET), and WUE showing an upward trend accounted for 85.85 %, 63.66 %, and 83.88 % of the total area of the country, respectively. Although ET also showed an increasing trend nationwide, the increase of NPP was more obvious; (2) The control experiment showed that WUE showed a significant increase trend in arid and semi-arid areas of Northwest China with the increase of CO2 concentration, while SWC showed a significant drying trend, but both WUE and SWC showed an increasing trend in humid areas. The sensitivity of WUE to SWC was enhanced in arid and semi-arid areas, and the effect of soil drought was partially offset by the increase of WUE; (3) Future climate projections also indicated that the CO2 fertilization effect will contribute to an increase in WUE while causing drier soil moisture conditions in the arid and semi-arid regions. Especially under the SSP5-8.5 scenario, CO2 fertilization in Northwest China contributed more than 14 % to WUE from 2015 to 2060, while the impact on SWC depletion exceeded 3 %. This highlights the potential implications of rising atmospheric CO2 concentration, as it may promote a significant rise in WUE and exacerbate the drying of soil moisture in these areas. These findings emphasize the need for careful attention and consideration in managing water resources in arid and semi-arid regions in the face of future climate change.
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Affiliation(s)
- Rui Kong
- State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulics Engineering, College of Hydrology and Water Resources, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China.
| | - Zengxin Zhang
- State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulics Engineering, College of Hydrology and Water Resources, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China; Joint Innovation Center for Modern Forestry Studies, College of Forestry, Nanjing Forestry University, Nanjing 210037, China.
| | - Zejiang Yu
- State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulics Engineering, College of Hydrology and Water Resources, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China
| | - Richao Huang
- Institute of Surface-Earth System Science, School of Earth System Science, Tianjin University, Tianjin 300072, China
| | - Ying Zhang
- State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulics Engineering, College of Hydrology and Water Resources, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China.
| | - Xi Chen
- Institute of Surface-Earth System Science, School of Earth System Science, Tianjin University, Tianjin 300072, China.
| | - Chong-Yu Xu
- Department of Geosciences, University of Oslo, 0316 Oslo, Norway.
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Wang B, Waters C, Anwar MR, Cowie A, Liu DL, Summers D, Paul K, Feng P. Future climate impacts on forest growth and implications for carbon sequestration through reforestation in southeast Australia. J Environ Manage 2022; 302:113964. [PMID: 34678538 DOI: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2021.113964] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/05/2021] [Revised: 10/05/2021] [Accepted: 10/16/2021] [Indexed: 06/13/2023]
Abstract
Reforestation is identified as one of the key nature-based solutions to deliver carbon dioxide removal, which will be required to achieve the net zero ambition of the Paris Agreement. However, the potential for sequestration through reforestation is uncertain because climate change is expected to affect the drivers of forest growth. This study used the process-based 3-PG model to investigate the effects of climate change on development of above-ground biomass (AGB), as an indicator of forest growth, in regenerating native forests in southeast Australia. We investigated how changing climate affects AGB, by combining historical data and future climate projections based on 25 global climate models (GCMs) for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) under two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways. We found that the ensemble means of 25 GCMs indicated an increase in temperature with large variations in projected rainfall. When these changes were applied in 3-PG, we found an increase in the simulated AGB by as much as 25% under a moderate emission scenario. This estimate rose to 51% under a high emission scenario by the end of the 21st century across nine selected sites in southeast Australia. However, when CO2 response was excluded, we found a large decrease in AGB at the nine sites. Our modelling results showed that the modelled response to elevated atmospheric CO2 (the CO2 fertilization effect) was largely responsible for the simulated increase of AGB (%). We found that the estimates of future changes in the AGB were subject to uncertainties originating from climate projections, future emission scenarios, and the assumed response to CO2 fertilization. Such modelling simulation improves understanding of possible climate change impacts on forest growth and the inherent uncertainties in estimating mitigation potential through reforestation, with implications for climate policy in Australia.
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Affiliation(s)
- Bin Wang
- NSW Department of Primary Industries, Wagga Wagga Agricultural Institute, Pine Gully Road Wagga Wagga, NSW, 2650, Australia.
| | - Cathy Waters
- NSW Department of Primary Industries, Dubbo, NSW, 2830, Australia
| | - Muhuddin Rajin Anwar
- NSW Department of Primary Industries, Wagga Wagga Agricultural Institute, Pine Gully Road Wagga Wagga, NSW, 2650, Australia; Graham Centre for Agricultural Innovation (an Alliance Between NSW Department of Primary Industries and Charles Sturt University), Pine Gully Road Wagga Wagga, NSW, 2650, Australia
| | - Annette Cowie
- NSW Department of Primary Industries, Trevenna Rd, Armidale, NSW, 2351, Australia; School of Environmental and Rural Science, University of New England, Armidale, NSW, 2351, Australia
| | - De Li Liu
- NSW Department of Primary Industries, Wagga Wagga Agricultural Institute, Pine Gully Road Wagga Wagga, NSW, 2650, Australia; Climate Change Research Centre, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW, 2052, Australia
| | - David Summers
- UniSA Business, The University of South Australia, GPO Box 2471, Adelaide, SA, 5001, Australia
| | - Keryn Paul
- CSIRO Land and Water, GPO Box 1700, ACT, 2601, Australia
| | - Puyu Feng
- College of Land Science and Technology, China Agricultural University, Beijing, 100193, China
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Luo X, Jia B, Lai X. Quantitative analysis of the contributions of land use change and CO 2 fertilization to carbon use efficiency on the Tibetan Plateau. Sci Total Environ 2020; 728:138607. [PMID: 32361110 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.138607] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/06/2020] [Revised: 04/08/2020] [Accepted: 04/08/2020] [Indexed: 06/11/2023]
Abstract
Carbon use efficiency (CUE) is a key element in the vegetation carbon cycle, and determines how vegetation allocates carbon. Here, our research provides the spatio-temporal variations of CUE on the Tibetan Plateau (TP) based on ensemble simulations from 12 terrestrial ecosystem models. Moreover, the experimental design of simulations adds one time-varying driver at a time, thus quantitative analysis of the response of CUE to climate factors (i.e., temperature, precipitation and radiation), land use and land cover change (LULCC), and CO2 fertilization can be investigated. Results show that average CUE value of the multi-model simulations (0.583 ± 0.064) on the TP is slightly lower than that derived from the satellite-based product, the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (0.646). However, CUE varies greatly among models due to differences in simulating plant photosynthetic productivity and respiratory rate, with range of 0.489-0.661. LULCC and CO2 fertilization contribute 4.24% and 0.79% of the annual mean CUE, respectively. Among the climatic factors, temperature and precipitation have positive correlations with CUE over most areas of the TP while solar radiation shows a negative impact.
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Affiliation(s)
- Xin Luo
- State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics (LASG), Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China; Plateau Atmosphere and Environment Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province, Chengdu University of Information Technology, Chengdu, China
| | - Binghao Jia
- State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics (LASG), Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China.
| | - Xin Lai
- Plateau Atmosphere and Environment Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province, Chengdu University of Information Technology, Chengdu, China
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