Evading tipping points in socio-mutualistic networks via structure mediated optimal strategy

The threat of large-scale pollinator decline is increasing globally under stress from multiple anthropogenic pressures. Traditional approaches have focused on managing endangered species at an individual level, in which the effect of complex interactions such as mutualism and competition are amiss. Here, we develop a coupled socio-mutualistic network model that captures the change in pollinator dynamics with human conservation opinion in a deteriorating environment. We show that the application of social norm (or conservation) at the pollinator nodes is fit to prevent sudden community collapse in representative networks of varied topology. Whilst primitive strategies have focused on regulating abundance as a mitigation strategy, the role of network structure has been largely overlooked. Here, we develop a novel network structure-mediated conservation strategy to find the optimal set of nodes on which norm implementation successfully prevents community collapse. We find that networks of intermediate nestedness require conservation at a minimum number of nodes to prevent a community collapse. We claim the robustness of the optimal conservation strategy (OCS) after validation on several simulated and empirical networks of varied complexity against a broad range of system parameters. Dynamical analysis of the reduced model shows that incorporating social norms allows the pollinator abundance to grow that would have otherwise crossed a tipping point and undergo extinction. Together, this novel means OCS provides a potential plan of action for conserving plant-pollinator networks bridging the gap between research in mutualistic networks and conservation ecology.

Alternative stable states, nonlinear behavior, and predictability of microbiome dynamics

BACKGROUND

Microbiome dynamics are both crucial indicators and potential drivers of human health, agricultural output, and industrial bio-applications. However, predicting microbiome dynamics is notoriously difficult because communities often show abrupt structural changes, such as "dysbiosis" in human microbiomes.

METHODS

We integrated theoretical frameworks and empirical analyses with the aim of anticipating drastic shifts of microbial communities. We monitored 48 experimental microbiomes for 110 days and observed that various community-level events, including collapse and gradual compositional changes, occurred according to a defined set of environmental conditions. We analyzed the time-series data based on statistical physics and non-linear mechanics to describe the characteristics of the microbiome dynamics and to examine the predictability of major shifts in microbial community structure.

RESULTS

We confirmed that the abrupt community changes observed through the time-series could be described as shifts between "alternative stable states" or dynamics around complex attractors. Furthermore, collapses of microbiome structure were successfully anticipated by means of the diagnostic threshold defined with the "energy landscape" analysis of statistical physics or that of a stability index of nonlinear mechanics.

CONCLUSIONS

The results indicate that abrupt microbiome events in complex microbial communities can be forecasted by extending classic ecological concepts to the scale of species-rich microbial systems. Video Abstract.

Core species and interactions prominent in fish-associated microbiome dynamics

BACKGROUND

In aquatic ecosystems, the health and performance of fish depend greatly on the dynamics of microbial community structure in the background environment. Nonetheless, finding microbes with profound impacts on fish's performance out of thousands of candidate species remains a major challenge.

METHODS

We examined whether time-series analyses of microbial population dynamics could illuminate core components and structure of fish-associated microbiomes in the background (environmental) water. By targeting eel-aquaculture-tank microbiomes as model systems, we reconstructed the population dynamics of the 9605 bacterial and 303 archaeal species/strains across 128 days.

RESULTS

Due to the remarkable increase/decrease of constituent microbial population densities, the taxonomic compositions of the microbiome changed drastically through time. We then found that some specific microbial taxa showed a positive relationship with eels' activity levels even after excluding confounding effects of environmental parameters (pH and dissolved oxygen level) on population dynamics. In particular, a vitamin-B₁₂-producing bacteria, Cetobacterium somerae, consistently showed strong positive associations with eels' activity levels across the replicate time series of the five aquaculture tanks analyzed. Network theoretical and metabolic modeling analyses further suggested that the highlighted bacterium and some other closely-associated bacteria formed "core microbiomes" with potentially positive impacts on eels.

CONCLUSIONS

Overall, these results suggest that the integration of microbiology, ecological theory, and network science allows us to explore core species and interactions embedded within complex dynamics of fish-associated microbiomes.  Video Abstract.