Lagrangian and Eulerian modelling of 106Ru atmospheric transport in 2017 over northern hemisphere

In September 2017, numerous measurement stations recorded large surface concentrations of Ru106 in Europe. This event was well recorded by various monitoring stations worldwide and offer a valuable framework to compare the modelling strategies deployed to quickly evaluate where the plume goes and with what concentrations. In general, the source and its intensity are not known and hypotheses have to be done. Models have to be fast and accurate: Lagrangian and Eulerian are often used but rarely compared. In this study, the FLEXPART Lagrangian model and the WRF-CHIMERE Eulerian models are used to simulate the emissions, transport and deposition of this source of Ru106. First, it is shown that the hypothesis of location, timing and intensity of the source is realistic, by comparison to surface measurements. Second, sensitivity analysis performed with the Eulerian model and several transport scheme showed that this model may provide better results than the Lagrangian one. It opens the door to further development, including chemistry and mixing with other pollutants during these specific events.

Understanding ozone episodes during the TRACER-AQ campaign in Houston, Texas: The role of transport and ozone production sensitivity to precursors

This study investigated transport pathways and photochemical formation responsible for ozone exceedances during the September 2021 deployment of the Tracking Aerosol Convection Interactions ExpeRiment/Air Quality (TRACER-AQ) campaign in Houston, Texas. We focused on two ozone episodes, September 6th-September 11th ("Episode 1") and September 23rd-September 26th ("Episode 2"), when the maximum daily eight-hour average (MDA8) ozone at surface monitors exceeded 70 ppbv. Long-range transport patterns of air masses during these episodes were from the central/northern US. High-resolution (4 km resolution) trajectory analysis with FLEXible PARTicle (FLEXPART) dispersion model revealed local recirculation of air masses and the accumulation of pollutants across Houston contribute to the ozone exceedances. Comprehensive Air Quality Model with extensions (CAMx) driven by 1.33-km resolution meteorology from the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) tool simulated elevated ozone production rates during ozone episodes across the Houston metropolitan area, with ozone production hotspots mostly over Houston city and industrial districts of the Houston Ship Channel (HSC). The regional increase in ozone production rates was due to the transport of VOC-rich air masses (via northerly flows) that brought ozone precursors to the region, which ultimately caused a transition in the ozone formation tendency from generally VOC-limited to NOx-limited conditions. However, the city of Houston and the HSC remained in a VOC-limited regime because of local NOx emissions that, to some extent, preponderated the impact of transported VOCs. While approximately 37 % of the elevated ozone production was attributed to local photochemistry, the remaining ∼63 % increase in ozone production was due to the transported ozone to the region during episodes, bringing ozone to the Houston region and contributing to ozone exceedances. The outcomes of this study illustrated the synergy between transport and ozone production, both long-range and local scale, which resulted in ozone exceedances in Houston.

Transport Patterns and Potential Sources of Atmospheric Pollution during the XXIV Olympic Winter Games Period

The attainment of suitable ambient air quality standards is a matter of great concern for successfully hosting the XXIV Olympic Winter Games (OWG). Transport patterns and potential sources of pollutants in Zhangjiakou (ZJK) were investigated using pollutant monitoring datasets and a dispersion model. The PM_2.5 concentration during February in ZJK has increased slightly (28%) from 2018 to 2021, mostly owing to the shift of main potential source regions of west-central Inner Mongolia and Mongolian areas (2015-18) to the North China Plain and northern Shanxi Province (NCPS) after 2018. Using CO as an indicator, the relative contributions of the different regions to the receptor site (ZJK) were evaluated based on the source-receptor-relationship method (SRR) and an emission inventory. We found that the relative contribution of pollutants from NCPS increased from 33% to 68% during 2019-21. Central Inner Mongolia (CIM) also has an important impact on ZJK under unfavorable weather conditions. This study demonstrated that the effect of pollution control measures in the NCPS and CIM should be strengthened to ensure that the air quality meets the standard during the XXIV OWG.

Analysis of the impact of various vertical release patterns on the atmospheric dispersion and total deposition of 137Cs from Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant accident

The Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) catastrophe of 1986 has been a milestone in the use of nuclear power for energy generation. After the accident, various topics have been discussed to evaluate the details of occurrence of the event and to understand its impacts on human, animal and plant life. One of the most controversial topics is the release height and homogeneity of radionuclides at release point in the atmosphere. Currently, there exists no definitive decision on the release height and vertical distribution pattern of radionuclides released from the Chernobyl accident. Based on this premise, this study focuses on the analysis of various possible release patterns along the vertical dimension and the potential influences on the atmospheric dispersion and total deposition with particular reference to ¹³⁷Cs. For this purpose, some release pattern functions following uniform, Dirac delta, exponential, log-Pearson type III, and cumulative distribution functions along the z-axis were used to simulate the dispersion of ¹³⁷Cs released from the accident site. A total of 22 release patterns are produced using different maximum release heights (2000, 3000, and 4000 m). A Lagrangian particle dispersion model, FLEXPART, was then used to conduct simulations for these conditions to assess most coherent dispersion and deposition patterns. Model results from each release function were plotted, compared with each other and verified with measured data. In the functions where the release predominantly existed at lower levels, more extreme values were observed in the close vicinity of the source. Consequently, Dirac delta, log-Pearson type III (1), and exponential functions can be used as worst-case conditions at local scale. On the other hand, simulations also revealed that contamination spread to wider areas in cases where the release occurred from higher levels of the atmosphere. Therefore, log-Pearson type III (2) and cumulative distribution function can be considered more significant concerning a wider distribution of affected areas.

Real-time simulation of accidental passive transport of radioactive pollutant from a proposed nuclear power plant

Power plant's site selection is a complex task and involves through analyses of multi-disciplinary processes which are interlinked with each other. The site selection for nuclear power plants additionally requires an assessment of radiation doses to the environment and public during normal operation and in the case of an accident. This demands the problem of radioactive particles' dispersion in atmosphere to be analysed in real time for a comprehensive set of radioactive release scenarios in prevailing meteorological conditions in the plant surroundings. In this study, a local scale atmospheric dispersion problem, considering a hypothetical accidental release (1 Bq s^-1of I-131) from a nuclear power plant is simulated with a combination of weather forecasting and particle dispersion codes on a multiprocessor computer system. The meteorological parameters are predicted with a weather research and forecasting (WRF) model and used in Lagrangian particle dispersion model based code FLEXPART to calculate the trajectory of released particles, and thereby, the estimation of spatial I-131 dose distribution. The concentration of particles and radiation doses were calculated for release heights of 10, 57, and 107 m and found in a reasonable agreement with the observed data and better than an earlier investigation done with regional atmospheric modelling system (RAMS) code. A comparison between the results of WRF and RAMS for various meteorological parameters revealed that better space-time predictions of wind speeds and directions by WRF had a profound effect on tracing the trajectories of particles and thereby the spatial dose distribution. The particles followed the changes in wind direction predicted by WRF that were known to prevail in the region.

Radon transport events associated with the impact of a NORM repository in the SW of Europe

Two radon measurement stations located to the north and south of a NORM (Naturally Occurring Radioactive Materials) repository of phosphogypsum (southwest of Europe) were used to monitor radon behavior during 2018. The stations are located at opposing sides of the repository, one in Huelva City to the north and other one in a rural area to the south. This setup aimed to identify the influence of the NORM repository on each station and use radon levels as a marker of atmospheric transport in the local area. To achieve this, a comparison was carried out with other coastal stations in the south of Spain, finding higher average concentrations in Huelva City, ~3.3 Bq m^-3. Hierarchical clustering was applied to identify days with different radon patterns at each Huelva station, detecting possible local radon transport events from the repository. Three events were investigated with WRF (Weather Research and Forecasting) and FLEXPART-WRF (FLEXible PARTicle dispersion model). It was found that both sampling sites required atmospheric stagnant conditions to reach high radon concentration. However, under these conditions the urban station showed high radon regardless of wind direction while the rural station also required radon transport from the repository, either directly or indirectly.

Passive Air Sampling of PCDD/Fs, PCBs, PAEs, DEHA, and PAHs from Informal Electronic Waste Recycling and Allied Sectors in Indian Megacities

Xenobiotic chemical emissions from the informal electronic waste recycling (EW) sector are emerging problem for developing countries, with scale and impacts that are yet to be evaluated. We report an intensive polyurethane foam disk passive air sampling study in four megacities in India to investigate atmospheric organic pollutants along five transects viz., EW, information technology (IT), industrial, residential, and dumpsites. Intraurban emission sources were estimated and attributed by trajectory modeling and positive matrix factorization (PMF). ∑₁₇PCDD/Fs, ∑₂₅PCBs, ∑₇plasticizers, and ∑₁₅PAHs concentrations ranged from 3.1 to 26 pg/m³ (14 ± 7; Avg ± SD), 0.5-52 ng/m³ (9 ± 12); 7.5-520 ng/m³, (63 ± 107) and 6-33 ng/m³ (17 ± 6), respectively. EW contributed 45% of total PCB concentrations in this study and was evidenced as a major factor by PMF. The dominance of dioxin-like PCBs (dl-PCBs), particularly PCB-126, reflects combustion as the possible primary emission source. PCDD/Fs, PCBs and plasticizers were consistently highest at EW transect, while PAHs were maximum in industrial transect followed by EW. Concentrations of marker plasticizers (DnBP and DEHP) released during EW activities were significantly higher (p < 0.05) in Bangalore than in other cities. Toxic equivalents (TEQs) due to dl-PCBs was maximum in the EW transect and PCB-126 was the major contributor. For both youth and adult, the highest estimated inhalation risks for dl-PCBs and plasticizers were seen at the EW transect in Bangalore, followed by Chennai and New Delhi.

Source apportionment of particulate matter based on numerical simulation during a severe pollution period in Tangshan, North China

Facing serious air pollution problems, the Chinese government has taken numerous measures to prevent and control air pollution. Understanding the sources of pollutants is crucial to the prevention of air pollution. Using numerical simulation method, this study analysed the contributions of the total local emissions and local emissions from different sectors (such as industrial, traffic, resident, agricultural, and power plant emissions) to PM_2.5 concentration, backward trajectory, and potential source regions in Tangshan, a typical heavy industrial city in north China. The impact of multi-scale meteorological conditions on source apportionment was investigated. From October 2016 to March 2017, total local emissions accounted for 46.0% of the near-surface PM_2.5 concentration. In terms of emissions from different sectors, local industrial emissions which accounted for 23.1% of the near-surface PM_2.5 concentration in Tangshan, were the most important pollutant source. Agricultural emissions were the second most important source, accounting for 10.3% of the near-surface PM_2.5 concentration. The contributions of emissions from power plants, traffic, residential sources were 2.0%, 3.0%, and 7.2%, respectively. The contributions of total local emissions and emissions from different sectors depended on multi-scale meteorological conditions, and static weather significantly enhanced the contribution of regional transport to the near-surface PM_2.5 concentration. Eight cluster backward trajectories were identified for Tangshan. The PM_2.5 concentration for the 8 cluster trajectories significantly differed. The near-surface PM_2.5 in urban Tangshan (receptor point) was mainly from the local emissions, and another important potential source region was Tianjin. The results of the source apportionment suggested the importance of joint prevention and control of air pollution in some areas where cities or industrial regions are densely distributed.

Characteristics and sources of PM2.5 with focus on two severe pollution events in a coastal city of Qingdao, China

In this study, the seasonal mean PM_2.5 concentration in Qingdao, a coastal city, during 2014-2018 was first analyzed and the winter, in particular of 2015, showed the highest concentration. To elucidate the sources and control factors of PM_2.5, three dimensional model Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF), Community Multiscale Air Quality model (CMAQ), as well as Flexible Particle model (FLEXPART), were used. During December 2015 and January 2016, modeling results showed that the mean contribution to PM_2.5 mass concentrations from local emissions in Qingdao was 25%, and the transport from north and west accounted for almost half. Over the two episodically polluted periods (29-31 December 2015; 15-17 January 2016), the local emissions in Qingdao surprisingly contributed to only 18% and 24% to PM_2.5 mass concentrations, respectively, indicating the dominant contributions from other regions, such as areas outside Qingdao in Shandong and Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH). The results show the sources region and contribution may vary remarkably along with the change in the pathways of the air parcel, inferred by the FLEXPART, while the near-surface PM_2.5 enhancement is largely caused by downward vertical advection and enhanced aerosol chemistry reactions, accompanied by simultaneous drop in the boundary layer height. This study also reveals that the transport contribution is sensitive to the air parcel trajectories. We, therefore, recommend the efficient emission control based on transport trajectories in short-term air quality improvement in Qingdao.

Quantification of primary and secondary sources to PM2.5 using an improved source regional apportionment method in an industrial city, China

Identifying and quantifying the major sources of atmospheric particulate matter (PM) is essential for the development of pollution mitigation strategies to protect public health. However, urban PM is affected by local primary emissions, transport, and secondary formation; therefore, advanced methods are needed to elucidate the complex sources and transport patterns. Here, an improved source apportionment method was developed by incorporating the receptor model, Lagrangian simulation, and emissions inventories to quantify PM_2.5 sources for an industrial city in China. PM_2.5 data including ions, metals, organic carbon, and elemental carbon were obtained by analyzing 1 year of sampling results at urban and rural sites. This method identified coal combustion (30.64%), fugitive dust (13.25%), and vehicles (12.51%) as major primary sources. Secondary sources, including sulfate, nitrate, and secondary organic aerosols also contributed strongly (25.28%-30.76% in total) over urban and rural areas. Hebei Province was the major regional source contributor (43.05%-57.51%) except for fugitive dust, on which Inner Mongolia had a greater impact (43.51%). The megacities of Beijing and Tianjin exerted strong regional impacts on the secondary nitrate and secondary organic aerosols factors, contributing 11.32% and 15.65%, respectively. Pollution events were driven largely by secondary inorganic aerosols, highlighting the importance of reducing precursor emissions at the regional scale, particularly in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region. Overall, our results demonstrate that this novel method offers good flexibility and efficiency for quantifying PM_2.5 sources and regional contributions, and that it can be extended to other cities.

Enhancement of carbon monoxide concentration in atmosphere due to large scale forest fire of Uttarakhand

The richly forested Indian state of Uttarakhand experienced widespread forest fires in April to May 2016. The current study examines dispersion of carbon monoxide (CO) from the source regions of forest fire to distant places, using the Lagrangian particle dispersion model, FLEXPART. Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) observations revealed that CO columnar concentrations had increased by almost 28 percentage during 24 April to 02 May 2016 with respect to the previous non-burning period of April 2016 at Uttarakhand. It is also seen that there is considerable enhancement of 45 percentage in average columnar concentration of CO during the burning period, compared to that in the previous 5 years as observed by AIRS. In the present study, concentrations of CO at different pressure levels and columnar CO over Uttarakhand during the forest fire event have been simulated using FLEXPART. The area averaged profile of model derived CO has been compared with the profile from AIRS onboard Aqua. Comparison between model derived columnar CO and satellite observations shows good agreement with coefficient of correlation (r) approximately 0.91 over the burnt areas. Further analysis using FLEXPART reveals that the transport of pollutants is towards north-eastern and eastern regions from the locations of forest fire events. Model derived vertical distribution of CO over Tibet, which is situated at the north-east of Uttarakhand, shows significant increase of CO concentration at higher altitudes around 3 km from the mean sea level during the fire event. FLEXPART results show that the emissions from the Uttarakhand fires were transported to Tibet during the study period.

Sources of atmospheric black carbon and related carbonaceous components at Rishiri Island, Japan: The roles of Siberian wildfires and of crop residue burning in China

A field study was conducted to clarify sources of atmospheric black carbon and related carbonaceous components at Rishiri Island, Japan. We quantified equivalent black carbon (eBC) particle mass and the absorption Ångström exponent (AAE), atmospheric CO and CH₄, in addition to levoglucosan in total suspended particles, a typical tracer of biomass burning. Sixteen high eBC events were identified attributable to either anthropogenic sources or biomass burning in Siberia/China. These events were often accompanied by increases of co-emitted gases such as CH₄ and CO. Specifically, we observed pollution events with elevated eBC, AAE, levoglucosan, and CH₄CO slope in late July 2014, which were attributed to forest fires in Siberia by reference to the FLEXPART model footprint and fire hotspots. In autumn, drastic increases of eBC, AAE, and levoglucosan were observed, accompanied by an eBC-CO slope of >15 ng m^-3/ppb, resulting from long-range transport of emissions from extensive burning of crop residue on the Northeast China Plain. Other than the sources of fossil fuel combustion in China and forest fires in Siberia, we report for the first time that pollution events in northern Japan are caused by crop residue burning in China. This study elucidated valuable information that will improve understanding of the effects of biomass burning in East Asia on atmospheric carbonaceous components.

Atmospheric transport of 131I and 137Cs from Fukushima by the East Asian northeast monsoon

The Lagrangian particle dispersion model FLEXPART was used to simulate atmospheric dispersion of radionuclides from the Fukushima nuclear power plant (FNPP) towards the Tropical Western Pacific (TWP) and Southeast Asia (SEA). The simulation model distinguished between hemispherical transport via the jet stream and regional transport within the marine boundary layer by the East Asian northeast monsoon. This regional transport was driven by anticyclonic circulation over southern Japan and the western Pacific resulting from a recurrent eastward extension of the Siberian High to the Pacific Ocean. Activity concentrations of ¹³¹I and ¹³⁷Cs measured at ten monitoring stations in TWP and SEA were used to validate the particle dispersion model. Good agreement between the FLEXPART model and observations yields confidence regarding its application to assess radiation impacts and support emergency planning in response to a possible future nuclear accident in the region.

Sources and geographic origin of particulate matter in urban areas of the Danube macro-region: The cases of Zagreb (Croatia), Budapest (Hungary) and Sofia (Bulgaria)

The contribution of main PM pollution sources and their geographic origin in three urban sites of the Danube macro-region (Zagreb, Budapest and Sofia) were determined by combining receptor and Lagrangian models. The source contribution estimates were obtained with the Positive Matrix Factorization (PMF) receptor model and the results were further examined using local wind data and backward trajectories obtained with FLEXPART. Potential Source Contribution Function (PSCF) analysis was applied to identify the geographical source areas for the PM sources subject to long-range transport. Gas-to-particle transformation processes and primary emissions from biomass burning are the most important contributors to PM in the studied sites followed by re-suspension of soil (crustal material) and traffic. These four sources can be considered typical of the Danube macro-region because they were identified in all the studied locations. Long-range transport was observed of: a) sulphate-enriched aged aerosols, deriving from SO₂ emissions in combustion processes in the Balkans and Eastern Europe and b) dust from the Saharan and Karakum deserts. The study highlights that PM pollution in the studied urban areas of the Danube macro-region is the result of both local sources and long-range transport from both EU and no-EU areas.

An inverse method to estimate emission rates based on nonlinear least-squares-based ensemble four-dimensional variational data assimilation with local air concentration measurements

An inverse source estimation method is proposed to reconstruct emission rates using local air concentration sampling data. It involves the nonlinear least squares-based ensemble four-dimensional variational data assimilation (NLS-4DVar) algorithm and a transfer coefficient matrix (TCM) created using FLEXPART, a Lagrangian atmospheric dispersion model. The method was tested by twin experiments and experiments with actual Cs-137 concentrations measured around the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant (FDNPP). Emission rates can be reconstructed sequentially with the progression of a nuclear accident, which is important in the response to a nuclear emergency. With pseudo observations generated continuously, most of the emission rates were estimated accurately, except under conditions when the wind blew off land toward the sea and at extremely slow wind speeds near the FDNPP. Because of the long duration of accidents and variability in meteorological fields, monitoring networks composed of land stations only in a local area are unable to provide enough information to support an emergency response. The errors in the estimation compared to the real observations from the FDNPP nuclear accident stemmed from a shortage of observations, lack of data control, and an inadequate atmospheric dispersion model without improvement and appropriate meteorological data. The proposed method should be developed further to meet the requirements of a nuclear emergency response.

Long-range transport of Xe-133 emissions under convective and non-convective conditions

To investigate the transport of xenon emissions, the Provisional Technical Secretariat (PTS) operates an Atmospheric Transport Modelling (ATM) system based on the Lagrangian Particle Dispersion Model FLEXPART. The air mass trajectory ideally provides a "link" between a radionuclide release and a detection confirmed by radionuclide measurements. This paper investigates the long-range transport of Xe-133 emissions under convective and non-convective conditions, with special emphasis on evaluating the changes in the simulated activity concentration values due to the inclusion of the convective transport in the ATM simulations. For that purpose a series of 14 day forward simulations, with and without convective transport, released daily in the period from 1 January 2011 to 30 June 2013, were analysed. The release point was at the ANSTO facility in Australia. The simulated activity concentrations for the period January 2011 to February 2012 were calculated using the daily emission values provided by the ANSTO facility; outside the aforementioned period, the median daily emission value was used. In the simulations the analysed meteorological input data provided by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) were used with the spatial resolution of 0.5°. It was found that the long-range transport of Xe-133 emissions under convective conditions, where convection was included in the ATM simulation, led to a small decrease in the activity concentration, as compared to transport without convection. In special cases related to deep convection, the opposite effect was observed. Availability of both daily emission values and measured Xe-133 activity concentration values was an opportunity to validate the simulations. Based on the paired t-test, a 95% confidence interval for the true mean difference between simulations without convective transport and measurements was constructed. It was estimated that the overall uncertainty lies between 0.08 and 0.25 mBq/m³. The uncertainty for the simulations with the convective transport included is slighted shifted to the lower values and is in the range between 0.06 and 0.20 mBq/m³.

Modeling of long range transport pathways for radionuclides to Korea during the Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear accident and their association with meteorological circulations

The Lagrangian FLEXible PARTicle (FLEXPART) dispersion model and National Centers for Environmental Prediction/Global Forecast System (NCEP/GFS) meteorological data were used to simulate the long range transport pathways of three artificial radionuclides: (131)I, (137)Cs, and (133)Xe, coming into Korean Peninsula during the Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear accident. Using emission rates of these radionuclides estimated from previous studies, three distinctive transport routes of these radionuclides toward the Korean Peninsula for a period from 10 March to 20 April 2011 were exploited by three spatial scales: 1) intercontinental scale - plume released since mid-March 2011 and transported to the North to arrive Korea on 23 March 2011, 2) global (hemispherical) scale - plume traveling over the whole northern hemisphere passing through the Pacific Ocean/Europe to reach the Korean Peninsula with relatively low concentrations in late March 2011 and, 3) regional scale - plume released on early April 2011 arrived at the Korean Peninsula via southwest sea of Japan influenced directly by veering mesoscale wind circulations. Our identification of these transport routes at three different scales of meteorological circulations suggests the feasibility of a multi-scale approach for more accurate prediction of radionuclide transport in the study area. In light of the fact that the observed arrival/duration time of peaks were explained well by the FLEXPART model coupled with NCEP/GFS input data, our approach can be used meaningfully as a decision support model for radiation emergency situations.

Simulation of radioactive plume gamma dose over a complex terrain using Lagrangian particle dispersion model

FLEXPART-WRF is a versatile model for the simulation of plume dispersion over a complex terrain in a mesoscale region. This study deals with its application to the dispersion of a hypothetical air borne gaseous radioactivity over a topographically complex nuclear site in southeastern France. A computational method for calculating plume gamma dose to the ground level receptor is introduced in FLEXPART using the point kernel method. Comparison with another similar dose computing code SPEEDI is carried out. In SPEEDI the dose is calculated for specific grid sizes, the lowest available being 250 m, whereas in FLEXPART it is grid independent. Spatial distribution of dose by both the models is analyzed. Due to the ability of FLEXPART to utilize the spatio-temporal variability of meteorological variables as input, particularly the height of the PBL, the simulated dose values were higher than SPEEDI estimates. The FLEXPART-WRF in combination with point kernel dose module gives a more realistic picture of plume gamma dose distribution in a complex terrain, a situation likely under accidental release of radioactivity in a mesoscale range.

Influence of the meteorological input on the atmospheric transport modelling with FLEXPART of radionuclides from the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear accident

In the present paper the role of precipitation as FLEXPART model input is investigated for one possible release scenario of the Fukushima Daiichi accident. Precipitation data from the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF), the NOAA's National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), the Japan Meteorological Agency's (JMA) mesoscale analysis and a JMA radar-rain gauge precipitation analysis product were utilized. The accident of Fukushima in March 2011 and the following observations enable us to assess the impact of these precipitation products at least for this single case. As expected the differences in the statistical scores are visible but not large. Increasing the ECMWF resolution of all the fields from 0.5° to 0.2° rises the correlation from 0.71 to 0.80 and an overall rank from 3.38 to 3.44. Substituting ECMWF precipitation, while the rest of the variables remains unmodified, by the JMA mesoscale precipitation analysis and the JMA radar gauge precipitation data yield the best results on a regional scale, specially when a new and more robust wet deposition scheme is introduced. The best results are obtained with a combination of ECMWF 0.2° data with precipitation from JMA mesoscale analyses and the modified wet deposition with a correlation of 0.83 and an overall rank of 3.58. NCEP-based results with the same source term are generally poorer, giving correlations around 0.66, and comparatively large negative biases and an overall rank of 3.05 that worsens when regional precipitation data is introduced.

Influence of monsoons on atmospheric CO2 spatial variability and ground-based monitoring over India

This study examines the role of Asian monsoons on transport and spatial variability of atmospheric CO2 over the Indian subcontinent, using transport modeling tools and available surface observations from two atmospheric CO2 monitoring sites Sinhagad (SNG) and Cape Rama (CRI) in the western part of peninsular India. The regional source contributions to these sites arise from the horizontal flow in conduits within the planetary boundary layer. Greater CO2 variability, greater than 15 ppm, is observed during winter, while it is reduced nearly by half during summer. The SNG air sampling site is more susceptible to narrow regional terrestrial fluxes transported from the Indo-Gangetic Plains in January, and to wider upwind marine source regions from the Arabian Sea in July. The Western Ghats mountains appear to play a role in the seasonal variability at SNG by trapping polluted air masses associated with weak monsoonal winds. A Lagrangian back-trajectory analysis further suggests that the horizontal extent of regional sensitivity increases from north to south over the Indian subcontinent in January (Boreal winter).

Tropospheric winds from northeastern China carry the etiologic agent of Kawasaki disease from its source to Japan

Evidence indicates that the densely cultivated region of northeastern China acts as a source for the wind-borne agent of Kawasaki disease (KD). KD is an acute, coronary artery vasculitis of young children, and still a medical mystery after more than 40 y. We used residence times from simulations with the flexible particle dispersion model to pinpoint the source region for KD. Simulations were generated from locations spanning Japan from days with either high or low KD incidence. The postepidemic interval (1987-2010) and the extreme epidemics (1979, 1982, and 1986) pointed to the same source region. Results suggest a very short incubation period (<24 h) from exposure, thus making an infectious agent unlikely. Sampling campaigns over Japan during the KD season detected major differences in the microbiota of the tropospheric aerosols compared with ground aerosols, with the unexpected finding of the Candida species as the dominant fungus from aloft samples (54% of all fungal strains). These results, consistent with the Candida animal model for KD, provide support for the concept and feasibility of a windborne pathogen. A fungal toxin could be pursued as a possible etiologic agent of KD, consistent with an agricultural source, a short incubation time and synchronized outbreaks. Our study suggests that the causative agent of KD is a preformed toxin or environmental agent rather than an organism requiring replication. We propose a new paradigm whereby an idiosyncratic immune response, influenced by host genetics triggered by an environmental exposure carried on winds, results in the clinical syndrome known as acute KD.

Atmospheric polychlorinated biphenyls in Indian cities: levels, emission sources and toxicity equivalents

Atmospheric concentration of Polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) were measured on diurnal basis by active air sampling during Dec 2006 to Feb 2007 in seven major cities from the northern (New Delhi and Agra), eastern (Kolkata), western (Mumbai and Goa) and southern (Chennai and Bangalore) parts of India. Average concentration of Σ25PCBs in the Indian atmosphere was 4460 (± 2200) pg/m(-3) with a dominance of congeners with 4-7 chlorine atoms. Model results (HYSPLIT, FLEXPART) indicate that the source areas are likely confined to local or regional proximity. Results from the FLEXPART model show that existing emission inventories cannot explain the high concentrations observed for PCB-28. Electronic waste, ship breaking activities and dumped solid waste are attributed as the possible sources of PCBs in India. Σ25PCB concentrations for each city showed significant linear correlation with Toxicity equivalence (TEQ) and Neurotoxic equivalence (NEQ) values.