Future assessment of the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the electricity market based on a stochastic socioeconomic model

This paper proposes a time-series stochastic socioeconomic model for analyzing the impact of the pandemic on the regulated distribution electricity market. The proposed methodology combines the optimized tariff model (socioeconomic market model) and the random walk concept (risk assessment technique) to ensure robustness/accuracy. The model enables both a past and future analysis of the impact of the pandemic, which is essential to prepare regulatory agencies beforehand and allow enough time for the development of efficient public policies. By applying it to six Brazilian concession areas, results demonstrate that consumers have been/will be heavily affected in general, mainly due to the high electricity tariffs that took place with the pandemic, overcoming the natural trend of the market. In contrast, the model demonstrates that the pandemic did not/will not significantly harm power distribution companies in general, mainly due to the loan granted by the regulator agency, named COVID-account. Socioeconomic welfare losses averaging 500 (MR$/month) are estimated for the equivalent concession area, i.e., the sum of the six analyzed concession areas. Furthermore, this paper proposes a stochastic optimization problem to mitigate the impact of the pandemic on the electricity market over time, considering the interests of consumers, power distribution companies, and the government. Results demonstrate that it is successful as the tariffs provided by the algorithm compensate for the reduction in demand while increasing the socioeconomic welfare of the market.

Assessment of the cost-effectiveness of Australia's risk-sharing agreement for direct-acting antiviral treatments for hepatitis C: a modelling study

Background

Hepatitis C elimination may be possible with broad uptake of direct-acting antiviral treatments (DAAs). In 2016 the Australian government committed A$1.2 billion for five years of unlimited DAAs (March 2016 to February 2021) in a risk-sharing agreement with pharmaceutical companies. We assess the impact, cost-effectiveness and net economic benefits likely to be realised from this investment.

Methods

Mathematical modelling to project outcomes for 2016-2030 included: (S1) a counter-factual scenario (testing/treatment maintained at pre-2016 levels); (S2) the current status-quo (testing/treatment as actually occurred 2016-2019, with trends maintained to 2030); and (S3) elimination scenario (S2 plus testing/treatment rates increased between 2021-2030 to achieve the WHO elimination targets).

Findings

S1 resulted in 68,800 new hepatitis C infections and 18,540 hepatitis C-related deaths over 2016-2030. The total health system cost (HCV testing, treatment, disease management) was A$3.01 billion and the cost of lost productivity due to absenteeism, presenteeism and premature deaths was A$26.14 billion. S2 averted 15,700 (23%) new infections and 8,500 (46%) deaths by 2030, with a total health system cost of A$3.48 billion, A$472 million more than S1 (A$1.65 billion more in testing/treatment but A$1.20 billion less in disease costs; A$5,752 per QALY gained from a health systems perspective). Productivity loss over 2016-2030 was A$19.96 billion, A$6.17 less than S1, making S2 cost-saving from a societal perspective by 2022 with a net economic benefit of A$5.70 billion by 2030. S3 averted an additional 10,000 infections and 930 deaths compared with S2 and increased the longer-term economic benefit.

Interpretation

Five years of unrestricted access to DAAs in Australia has led to significant health benefits and is likely to become cost-saving from a societal perspective by 2022.

Funding

Burnet Institute

Tracing ovarian cancer research in Morocco: A bibliometric analysis

BACKGROUND

The burden of ovarian cancer (OC) in low-income countries continues to increase annually. This gynecological cancer, known for its poor survival outcomes, has not attracted much interest in medical research as compared to other women's malignancies such as breast cancer. This bibliometric study was conducted to better depict the global map and the future directions of scientific productivity in the area of OC research in Morocco.

METHODS

Publication trends on OC were retrospectively analyzed using a number of bibliometric parameters based on the Pubmed database and other resources.

RESULTS

During the time period (1900-2018), a total number of 74 publications responding to the inclusion criteria were found and incorporated in the bibliometric analysis. This was dominated by case reports and case series on rare ovarian tumors (n = 60). In the core cluster, only 10 original studies and 3 reviews on OC were published by Moroccan researchers. After full-text appraisal for study population, only two clinical original articles included OC patients. The other clinical studies included breast cancer patients only or were suggestive of inherited OC. In addition, 3 preclinical in vitro studies were found during the literature search. The majority of these publications were covered by Pubmed and Web of Science core collection and all published in English language. The H-index of top 10 Moroccan scientists in this area didn't exceed 10. Importantly, research and review articles were frequently published in influential journals. However, the number of publications as compared to other African countries was very low. Moreover, a similar trend in terms of article per each newly diagnosed OC case, GDP per capita and per million was also noticed. For gender distribution, female scientists were first authors in the majority of these papers but less represented as leading last authors. In the complementary cluster of other article types on rare ovarian tumors, 70% of the items were published in French and approximately 60% were indexed on Pubmed. During the last five years, a marked acceleration of publishing this research category with little impact in the evidence-based practice was noticed.

CONCLUSIONS

This research area in gynecologic oncology seems to be neglected and needs to be prioritized in future research projects in Morocco particularly given the aggressive behavior of this women's cancer and the few available therapeutic options. There is an unmet need for studies on OC in all fields particularly epidemiology, clinic-pathological characteristics, and survival outcomes.

Burden of skin disease and associated socioeconomic status in Asia: A cross-sectional analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 1990-2017

Introduction

Skin diseases have a significant global impact on quality of life, mental health, and loss of income. The burden of dermatologic conditions and its relationship with socioeconomic status in Asia is currently not well understood.

Methods

We selected Global Burden of Disease Study datasets to analyze disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) in 50 Asian countries, including Central Asia, northern Asia, eastern Asia, western Asia, southeastern Asia, and southern Asia, between 1990 and 2017. We compared DALYs to the socioeconomic status using the sociodemographic index and gross domestic product per capita of a country. Statistical analysis was performed using Pearson's correlation.

Results

Some countries had higher or lower than expected age-standardized DALY rates of skin diseases. Asian countries, especially high-income countries, had a high burden of inflammatory dermatoses, including acne, alopecia areata, atopic dermatitis, contact dermatitis, decubitus ulcers, psoriasis, pruritus, and seborrheic dermatitis. The burden of infectious dermatoses was greater in low-income Asian countries. The burden of skin cancer in Asia was relatively low.

Conclusion

There is a high burden of skin disease, especially inflammatory conditions, in Asian countries, but the burden of individual dermatoses in Asia varies by country and socioeconomic status. DALYs can potentially serve as a purposeful measure for directing resources to improve the burden of skin disease in Asia.

Dermatoses of the Caribbean: Burden of skin disease and associated socioeconomic status in the Caribbean

Introduction

Dermatologic disease represents a significant burden worldwide, but the regional effect of skin disease in the Caribbean and how it relates to socioeconomic status remain unknown.

Objective

This study aims to measure the burden of skin disease in the Caribbean from epidemiologic and socioeconomic standpoints.

Methods

We selected Global Burden of Disease Study data sets to analyze disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) and the annual rate of change of dermatoses between 1990 and 2017 in 18 Caribbean countries and the United States. The principal country-level economic factor used was gross domestic product per capita from the World Bank.

Results

Countries with lower gross domestic product per capita had higher DALYs for dermatology-related infectious diseases, urticaria, asthma, and atopic dermatitis. Countries with higher gross domestic product per capita had higher DALYs of cutaneous neoplasms, contact dermatitis, psoriasis, and pruritus. Several Caribbean countries were among the top worldwide for annual increase in DALYs for melanoma, nonmelanoma skin cancers, bacterial skin disease, and total skin and subcutaneous diseases.

Conclusion

Despite promising ongoing interventions in skin disease, better support is needed in both resource-rich and -poor areas of the Caribbean. DALYs can serve as a purposeful measure for directing resources and care to improve the burden of skin disease in the Caribbean.

Nutritional status coverage trend registered in the SISVAN web in seven municipalities of the Zona Da Mata Mineira, Brazil, from 2008 to 2017, and its association with socio-economic, demographic and organisation of health system variables

We analysed the coverage trend of the evaluation of the nutritional status of users of public health services registered in the Food and Nutrition Surveillance System (SISVAN) between 2008 and 2017 in seven municipalities and verified the association of the coverage trend with the socio-economic, demographic and organisational aspects of health system variables. It is an ecological time-series study performed with secondary data extracted from health information systems. Descriptive statistics, linear regression model and repeated measures analysis were performed. The coverage of evaluation of nutritional status was low over the period. Five municipalities showed a tendency to increase coverage, although small, while two remained stable. The highest annual variation in coverage increase was concentrated in the group of pregnant women and the lowest in adolescents and older adults. There was a downward trend in follow-ups from the Bolsa Family Programme and a trend towards increased follow-ups from SUS Primary Care (e-SUS AB). SISVAN coverage was positively associated with the proportion of rural population (P ≤ 0·001) and coverage of community health agents (P < 0·001); and negatively associated with total population (P < 0·001), demographic density (P = 0·006) and gross domestic product per capita (P = 0·008). Despite the tendency to increase coverage in some municipalities, SISVAN still presents low coverage of nutritional status assessment, which compromises population monitoring. Knowing the factors that influence the coverage can subsidise the elaboration of strategies for its expansion.

Natural and socioeconomic determinants of the embodied human appropriation of net primary production and its relation to other resource use indicators

Indicators of resource use such as material and energy flow accounts, emission data and the ecological footprint inform societies about their performance by evaluating resource use efficiency and the effectiveness of sustainability policies. The human appropriation of net primary production (HANPP) is an indicator of land-use intensity on each nation's territory used in research as well as in environmental reports. 'Embodied HANPP' (eHANPP) measures the HANPP anywhere on earth resulting from a nation's domestic biomass consumption. The objectives of this article are (i) to study the relation between eHANPP and other resource use indicators and (ii) to analyse socioeconomic and natural determinants of global eHANPP patterns in the year 2000. We discuss a statistical analysis of >140 countries aiming to better understand these relationships. We found that indicators of material and energy throughput, fossil-energy related CO₂ emissions as well as the ecological footprint are highly correlated with each other as well as with GDP, while eHANPP is neither correlated with other resource use indicators nor with GDP, despite a strong correlation between final biomass consumption and GDP. This can be explained by improvements in agricultural efficiency associated with GDP growth. Only about half of the variation in eHANPP can be explained by differences in national land-use systems, suggesting a considerable influence of trade on eHANPP patterns. eHANPP related with biomass trade can largely be explained by differences in natural endowment, in particular the availability of productive area. We conclude that eHANPP can deliver important complimentary information to indicators that primarily monitor socioeconomic metabolism.