Effects of long-term ambient air pollution exposure on township-level pulmonary tuberculosis notification rates during 2005-2017 in Ningxia, China

Studies examining long-term effects of ambient air pollution exposure, measured as annual averages, on pulmonary tuberculosis (TB) incidence are scarce, particularly in endemic, rural settings. We performed a small-area study in Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region (NHAR), a high TB-burden area in rural China, using township-level (n = 358 non-overlapping townships) annual TB notification data (2005-2017). We aimed to determine if annual average concentrations of ambient air pollution (particulate matter <2·5 μm [PM_2·5], nitrogen dioxide [NO₂] ozone [O₃]) were associated with TB notification rates (as a proxy for incidence). Air pollution effects on TB notification rates at township-level were estimated as incidence rate ratios (IRR), fitted using a generalised estimating equation (GEE) adjusted for covariates (age, sex, occupation, education, ethnicity, remoteness [urban or rural], household crowding and solid fuel use). A total of 38,942 TB notifications were reported in NHAR between 2005 and 2017. The mean annual TB notification rate was 67 (standard deviation [SD]; 7) per 100,000 people. Median concentrations of PM_2·5, NO₂, and O₃ were 42 μg/m³ (interquartile range [IQR]; 38-48 μg/m³), 15 ppb (IQR; 12-16 ppb), and 56 ppb (IQR; 56-57 ppb), respectively. In single pollutant models, adjusted for covariates, an interquartile range (IQR) increase (10 μg/m³) in PM_2·5 was significantly associated with higher TB notification rates (IRR: 1∙35; 95% CI: 1·25-1·48). Comparable effects on notifications of TB were observed for increases in NO₂ exposure (IRR: 1·20 per IQR (4 ppb) increase; 95% CI: 1·08-1·31). Ground-level ozone was not associated with TB notification rate in any models. The observed effects were consistent over time, in multi-pollutant models, and appeared robust to additional adjustment for indicators of household crowding, solid fuel use and remoteness. More rigorous study designs are needed to understand if improving air quality has population-level benefits on TB disease incidence in endemic settings.

A novel soft sensor based warning system for hazardous ground-level ozone using advanced damped least squares neural network

Estimation of hazardous air pollutants in the urban environment for maintaining public safety is a significant concern to mankind. In this paper, we have developed an efficient air quality warning system based on a low-cost and robust ground-level ozone soft sensor. The soft sensor was developed based on a novel technique of damped least squares neural network (DLSNN) with greedy backward elimination (GBE) for the estimation of hazardous ground-level ozone. Only three meteorological factors were used as input variables in the estimation of ground-level ozone and we have used weighted k-nearest neighbors (WkNN) classifier with fast response for development of air quality warning system. We have chosen the urban areas of Taiwan for this study and have analyzed seasonal variations in the ground-level ozone concentration of various cities in Taiwan as part of this work. Moreover, descriptive statistics and linear dependence of ozone concentration based on Spearman correlation coefficient, Kendall's tau coefficient, and Pearson coefficient are calculated. The proposed DLSNN/GBE method exhibited excellent performance resulting in very low mean square error (MSE), mean absolute error (MAE), and high coefficient of determination (R²) compared to other traditional approaches in ozone concentration estimation. We have achieved a good fit in the determination of ozone concentration from meteorological features of atmosphere. Moreover, the excellent performance of proposed urban air quality warning system was evident from the good F1-score value of 0.952 achieved by the WkNN classifier.

Past, present and future concentrations of ground-level ozone and potential impacts on ecosystems and human health in northern Europe

This review summarizes new information on the current status of ground-level ozone in Europe north of the Alps. There has been a re-distribution in the hourly ozone concentrations in northern Europe during 1990-2015. The highest concentrations during summer daytime hours have decreased while the summer night-time and winter day- and night-time concentrations have increased. The yearly maximum 8-h mean concentrations ([O₃]_8h,max), a metric used to assess ozone impacts on human health, have decreased significantly during 1990-2015 at four out of eight studied sites in Fennoscandia and northern UK. Also the annual number of days when the yearly [O₃]_8h,max exceeded the EU Environmental Quality Standard (EQS) target value of 60ppb has decreased. In contrast, the number of days per year when the yearly [O₃]_8h,max exceeded 35ppb has increased significantly at two sites, while it decreased at one far northern site. [O₃]_8h,max is predicted not to exceed 60ppb in northern UK and Fennoscandia after 2020. However, the WHO EQS target value of 50ppb will still be exceeded. The AOT40 May-July and AOT40 April-September metrics, used for the protection of vegetation, have decreased significantly at three and four sites, respectively. The EQS for the protection of forests, AOT40 April-September 5000ppbh, is projected to no longer be exceeded for most of northern Europe sometime before the time period 2040-2059. However, if the EQS is based on Phytotoxic Ozone Dose (POD), POD₁, it may still be exceeded by 2050. The increasing trend for low and medium range ozone concentrations in combination with a decrease in high concentrations indicate that a new control strategy, with a larger geographical scale than Europe and including methane, is needed for ozone abatement in northern Europe.