New insights into the role of VKORC1 polymorphisms for optimal warfarin dose selection in Caribbean Hispanic patients through an external validation of a population PK/PD model

Warfarin, an oral anticoagulant, has been used for decades to prevent thromboembolic events. The complex interplay between CYP2C9 and VKORC1 genotypes on warfarin PK and PD properties is not fully understood in special sub-groups of patients. This study aimed to externally validate a population pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic (PK/PD) model for the effect of warfarin on international normalized ratio (INR) and to evaluate optimal dosing strategies based on the selected covariates in Caribbean Hispanic patients. INR, and CYP2C9 and VKORC1 genotypes from 138 patients were used to develop a population PK/PD model in NONMEM. The structural definition of a previously published PD model for INR was implemented. A numerical evaluation of the parameter-covariate relationship was performed. Simulations were conducted to determine optimal dosing strategies for each genotype combinations, focusing on achieving therapeutic INR levels. Findings revealed elevated IC50 for G/G, G/A, and A/A VKORC1 haplotypes (11.76, 10.49, and 9.22 mg/L, respectively), in this population compared to previous reports. The model-guided dosing analysis recommended daily warfarin doses of 3-5 mg for most genotypes to maintain desired INR levels, although subjects with combination of CYP2C9 and VKORC1 genotypes * 2/* 2-, * 2/* 3- and * 2/* 5-A/A would require only 1 mg daily. This research underscores the potential of population PK/PD modeling to inform personalized warfarin dosing in populations typically underrepresented in clinical studies, potentially leading to improved treatment outcomes and patient safety. By integrating genetic factors and clinical data, this approach could pave the way for more effective and tailored anticoagulation therapy in diverse patient groups.