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Ning Z, He S, Liao X, Ma C, Wu J. Health impacts of a cold wave and its economic loss assessment in China's high-altitude city, Xining. Arch Public Health 2024; 82:52. [PMID: 38632636 PMCID: PMC11025205 DOI: 10.1186/s13690-024-01284-7] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/08/2024] [Accepted: 04/06/2024] [Indexed: 04/19/2024] Open
Abstract
OBJECTIVE Amidst climate change, extensive research has centered on the health impacts of heatwaves, yet the consequences of cold spells, particularly in cooler, higher-altitude regions, remain under-explored. METHODS Analyzing climatic data and non-accidental mortality in Xining, China's second-highest provincial capital, from 2016 to 2020, this study defines cold spells as daily mean temperatures below the 10th, 7.5th, or 5th percentiles for 2-4 consecutive days. A time-stratified case-crossover approach and distributional lag nonlinear modeling were used to assess the link between cold spells and mortality, calculating attributable fractions (AFs) and numbers (ANs) of deaths. The study also examined the impact of cold spells over different periods and analyzed the value of a statistical life (VSL) loss in 2018, a year with frequent cold spells. Stratified analyses by sex, age, and education level were conducted. RESULTS A significant association was found between cold spells and non-accidental mortality, with a relative risk of 1.548 (95% CI: 1.300, 1.845). The AF was 33.48%, with an AN of 9,196 deaths during the study's cold period. A declining trend in mortality risk was observed from 2019-2020. The 2018 VSL was approximately 2.875 billion CNY, about 1.75% of Xining's GDP. Higher risks were noted among males, individuals aged ≥ 65, and those with lower education levels. CONCLUSION The findings underscore the vulnerability and economic losses of high-altitude cities to cold spells. Implementing interventions such as improved heating, educational programs, and community support is vital for mitigating these adverse health effects.
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Affiliation(s)
- Zhenxu Ning
- Department of Public Health, Faculty of Medicine, Qinghai University, Xining, China
| | - Shuzhen He
- Department of Public Health, Xining Centre for Disease Control and Prevention, Xining, China.
| | - Xinghao Liao
- Department of Public Health, Faculty of Medicine, Qinghai University, Xining, China
| | - Chunguang Ma
- Xining Centre for Disease Control and Prevention, Xining, China
| | - Jing Wu
- Xining Centre for Disease Control and Prevention, Xining, China
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Xia Y, Shi C, Li Y, Ruan S, Jiang X, Huang W, Chen Y, Gao X, Xue R, Li M, Sun H, Peng X, Xiang R, Chen J, Zhang L. Association between temperature and mortality: a multi-city time series study in Sichuan Basin, southwest China. Environ Health Prev Med 2024; 29:1. [PMID: 38220147 PMCID: PMC10788187 DOI: 10.1265/ehpm.23-00118] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/09/2023] [Accepted: 09/30/2023] [Indexed: 01/16/2024] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND There are few multi-city studies on the association between temperature and mortality in basin climates. This study was based on the Sichuan Basin in southwest China to assess the association of basin temperature with non-accidental mortality in the population and with the temperature-related mortality burden. METHODS Daily mortality data, meteorological and air pollution data were collected for four cities in the Sichuan Basin of southwest China. We used a two-stage time-series analysis to quantify the association between temperature and non-accidental mortality in each city, and a multivariate meta-analysis was performed to obtain the overall cumulative risk. The attributable fractions (AFs) were calculated to access the mortality burden attributable to non-optimal temperature. Additionally, we performed a stratified analyses by gender, age group, education level, and marital status. RESULTS A total of 751,930 non-accidental deaths were collected in our study. Overall, 10.16% of non-accidental deaths could be attributed to non-optimal temperatures. A majority of temperature-related non-accidental deaths were caused by low temperature, accounting for 9.10% (95% eCI: 5.50%, 12.19%), and heat effects accounted for only 1.06% (95% eCI: 0.76%, 1.33%). The mortality burden attributable to non-optimal temperatures was higher among those under 65 years old, females, those with a low education level, and those with an alternative marriage status. CONCLUSIONS Our study suggested that a significant association between non-optimal temperature and non-accidental mortality. Those under 65 years old, females, and those with a low educational level or alternative marriage status had the highest attributable burden.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yizhang Xia
- Sichuan Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, No. 6, Zhongxue Road, Wuhou District, Chengdu 610041, China
- Zigong Center for Disease Control and Prevention, No. 826, Huichuan Road, Ziliujing District, Zigong 643000, China
- School of Public Health, Chengdu Medical College, No. 783, Xindu Road, Xindu District, Chengdu 610500, China
| | - Chunli Shi
- Sichuan Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, No. 6, Zhongxue Road, Wuhou District, Chengdu 610041, China
| | - Yang Li
- Sichuan Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, No. 6, Zhongxue Road, Wuhou District, Chengdu 610041, China
| | - Shijuan Ruan
- Sichuan Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, No. 6, Zhongxue Road, Wuhou District, Chengdu 610041, China
| | - Xianyan Jiang
- Sichuan Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, No. 6, Zhongxue Road, Wuhou District, Chengdu 610041, China
| | - Wei Huang
- Zigong Center for Disease Control and Prevention, No. 826, Huichuan Road, Ziliujing District, Zigong 643000, China
| | - Yu Chen
- School of Public Health, Chengdu Medical College, No. 783, Xindu Road, Xindu District, Chengdu 610500, China
| | - Xufang Gao
- Chengdu Center for Disease Control and Prevention, No. 6, Longxiang Road, Wuhou District, Chengdu 610041, China
| | - Rong Xue
- Guangyuan Center for Disease Control and Prevention, No. 996, Binhebei Road, Lizhou District, Guangyuan 628017, China
| | - Mingjiang Li
- Panzhi hua Center for Disease Control and Prevention, No. 996, Jichang Road, Dong District, Panzhi hua 617067, China
| | - Hongying Sun
- Mianyang Center for Disease Control and Prevention, No. 50, Mianxingdong Road, Gaoxin District, Mianyang 621000, China
| | - Xiaojuan Peng
- Yaan Center for Disease Control and Prevention, No. 9, Fangcao Road, Yucheng District, Yaan 625000, China
| | - Renqiang Xiang
- Fucheng Center for Disease Control and Prevention, No. 116, Changhong Road, Fucheng District, Mianyang 621000, China
| | - Jianyu Chen
- Sichuan Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, No. 6, Zhongxue Road, Wuhou District, Chengdu 610041, China
| | - Li Zhang
- Sichuan Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, No. 6, Zhongxue Road, Wuhou District, Chengdu 610041, China
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Yin Z, Zhang L, Roradeh H, Baaghideh M, Yang Z, Hu K, Liu L, Zhang Y, Mayvaneh F, Zhang Y. Reduction in daily ambient PM 2.5 pollution and potential life gain by attaining WHO air quality guidelines in Tehran. Environ Res 2022; 209:112787. [PMID: 35090875 DOI: 10.1016/j.envres.2022.112787] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/08/2021] [Revised: 01/14/2022] [Accepted: 01/19/2022] [Indexed: 06/14/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Fine particulate matter pollution (PM2.5) is widely considered to be a top-ranked risk factor for premature mortality and years of life lost (YLL). However, evidence regarding the effect of daily air quality improvement on life expectancy is scarce, especially in the Middle East such as Iran. This study aimed to investigate the potential benefits in life expectancy at concentrations meeting the daily PM2.5 standards during 2012-2016 in Tehran, Iran. METHODS We collected daily non-accidental mortality and data on air pollutants and weather conditions from Tehran, Iran, 2012-2016. A quasi-Poisson or Gaussian time-series regression was employed to fit the associations between ambient PM2.5 and mortality or YLL. Potential gains in life expectancy (PGLE) and attributable fraction (AF) were estimated by assuming that daily PM2.5 concentrations attained the World Health Organization air quality guidelines (WHO AQG) 2005 (25 μg/m3) and 2021 (15 μg/m3). RESULTS During the study period, a total of 221,231 non-accidental deaths were recorded in Tehran, resulting in 3.6 million YLL. The mean concentration of ambient PM2.5 was 34.7 μg/m3 (standard deviation: 15.3 μg/m3). For a 10-μg/m3 rise in 4-day moving average (lag 03-day) in PM2.5 concentration, non-accidental mortality and YLL increased by 1.12% (95% confidence interval: 0.60, 1.65) and 20.73 (7.08, 34.39) person years, respectively. A relatively higher effect was observed in males and young adults aged 18-64 years. We estimated that 39830 [AF = 1.1%] and 74284 [AF = 2.1%] YLL could potentially be avoided if daily PM2.5 concentrations attained the WHO AQG 2005 and 2021, respectively, which corresponded to potential gains in life expectancy of 0.18 (0.06, 0.30) and 0.34 (0.11, 0.56) years for each deceased person. PM2.5-associated PGLE estimates were largely robust when performing sensitivity analyses. CONCLUSIONS Our findings indicated that short-term exposure to PM2.5 is associated with increased non-accidental YLL and mortality. Prolonged life expectancy could be achieved if the particulate matter air pollution level were kept under a stricter standard.
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Affiliation(s)
- Zhouxin Yin
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Wuhan University of Science and Technology, Wuhan 430065, China
| | - Liansheng Zhang
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Wuhan University of Science and Technology, Wuhan 430065, China
| | - Hematollah Roradeh
- Geography and Urban Planning Department, University of Mazandaran, Babolsar P.O. Box 47415-416, Iran
| | - Mohammad Baaghideh
- Faculty of Geography and Environmental Sciences, Hakim Sabzevari University, Sabzevar 9617916487, Khorasan Razavi, Iran
| | - Zhiming Yang
- School of Economics and Management, University of Science and Technology Beijing, Beijing, 100083, China
| | - Kejia Hu
- Institute of Big Data in Health Science, School of Public Health, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou 310058, China
| | - Linjiong Liu
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Wuhan University of Science and Technology, Wuhan 430065, China
| | - Yuanyuan Zhang
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Wuhan University of Science and Technology, Wuhan 430065, China
| | - Fatemeh Mayvaneh
- Faculty of Geography and Environmental Sciences, Hakim Sabzevari University, Sabzevar 9617916487, Khorasan Razavi, Iran.
| | - Yunquan Zhang
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Wuhan University of Science and Technology, Wuhan 430065, China; Hubei Province Key Laboratory of Occupational Hazard Identification and Control, Wuhan University of Science and Technology, Wuhan 430065, China.
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Guo X, Song Q, Wang H, Li N, Su W, Liang M, Sun C, Ding X, Liang Q, Sun Y. Systematic review and meta-analysis of studies between short-term exposure to ambient carbon monoxide and non-accidental, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality in China. Environ Sci Pollut Res Int 2022; 29:35707-35722. [PMID: 35257337 DOI: 10.1007/s11356-022-19464-9] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/19/2021] [Accepted: 02/23/2022] [Indexed: 06/14/2023]
Abstract
Although a growing number of original epidemiological studies imply a link between ambient pollution exposure and mortality risk, the findings associated with carbon monoxide (CO) exposure are inconsistent. Thus, we conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis of epidemiological studies to evaluate the correlations between ambient CO and non-accidental, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality in China. Eight databases were searched from inception to 15 May 2021. A random-effect model was used to calculate the pooled relative risks (RRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Subgroup analyses as well as sensitivity analyses were performed. The I square value (I2) was used to assess heterogeneity among different studies. The assessment of publication bias on included studies was examined by funnel plot and Egger's test. The influence of a potential publication bias on findings was explored by using the trim-and-fill procedure. Ultimately, a total of 19 studies were included in our analysis. The pooled relative risk for each 1 mg/m3 increase of ambient carbon monoxide was 1.0220 (95%CI: 1.0102-1.0339) for non-accidental mortality, 1.0304 (95%CI:1.0154-1.0457) for cardiovascular mortality, and 1.0318 (95%CI:1.0132-1.0506) for respiratory mortality. None of subgroup analyses could explain the source of heterogeneity. Exclusion of any single study did not materially alter the pooled effect estimates. Although it was suggestive of publication bias, findings were generally similar with principal findings when we explored the influence of a potential publication bias using the trim-and-fill method. Our meta-analysis demonstrated that exposure to ambient CO was positive with risk of deaths from all non-accidental causes, total cardiovascular, and respiratory diseases. Based on these findings, tougher intervention policies and initiatives to reduce the health effects of CO exposure should be established.
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Affiliation(s)
- Xianwei Guo
- Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics, School of Public Health, Anhui Medical University, No. 81 Meishan Road, Hefei, 230032, Anhui, People's Republic of China
| | - Qiuxia Song
- Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics, School of Public Health, Anhui Medical University, No. 81 Meishan Road, Hefei, 230032, Anhui, People's Republic of China
| | - Hao Wang
- Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics, School of Public Health, Anhui Medical University, No. 81 Meishan Road, Hefei, 230032, Anhui, People's Republic of China
| | - Ning Li
- Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics, School of Public Health, Anhui Medical University, No. 81 Meishan Road, Hefei, 230032, Anhui, People's Republic of China
| | - Wanying Su
- Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics, School of Public Health, Anhui Medical University, No. 81 Meishan Road, Hefei, 230032, Anhui, People's Republic of China
| | - Mingming Liang
- Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics, School of Public Health, Anhui Medical University, No. 81 Meishan Road, Hefei, 230032, Anhui, People's Republic of China
| | - Chenyu Sun
- Internal Medicine, AMITA Health Saint Joseph Hospital Chicago, 2900 N. Lake Shore Drive, Chicago, IL, 60657, USA
| | - Xiuxiu Ding
- Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics, School of Public Health, Anhui Medical University, No. 81 Meishan Road, Hefei, 230032, Anhui, People's Republic of China
| | - Qiwei Liang
- Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics, School of Public Health, Anhui Medical University, No. 81 Meishan Road, Hefei, 230032, Anhui, People's Republic of China
| | - Yehuan Sun
- Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics, School of Public Health, Anhui Medical University, No. 81 Meishan Road, Hefei, 230032, Anhui, People's Republic of China.
- Centre for Evidence-Based Practice, Anhui Medical University, Hefei, 230032, Anhui, People's Republic of China.
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Wang Y, Ding Z, Deng C, Guo P, You Y, Li L, Wang Y, Zhang Q. Years of life lost with premature death due to ambient temperatures in a southwest plateau region of China: a cause-specific and individual characteristics stratified mortality study. Int J Biometeorol 2020; 64:1333-1341. [PMID: 32436137 DOI: 10.1007/s00484-020-01912-1] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/24/2019] [Revised: 03/22/2020] [Accepted: 03/30/2020] [Indexed: 02/05/2023]
Abstract
We aimed to explore whether there were cold and heat temperature adverse effects on years of life lost (YLL) for non-accidental mortality in Yuxi, a southwest plateau region of China. From data for 89,467 non-accidental deaths over an 8-year study period, we used a general linear regression model combined with a distributed lag non-linear model to assess the burden of disease non-accidental mortality due to ambient temperature with the YLL indicator. We estimated the mean YLL change per 1 °C decrease from the 25th to 1st percentile mean temperature as the cold effect and per 1 °C increase from the 75th to 99th percentile as the heat effect. The 95% empirical confidence intervals (eCIs) were calculated by using a bootstrap simulation method. The exposure-response curve between average temperature and YLL was U-shaped. The cold effect peaked at the first day after exposure and disappeared at 2 weeks, and the heat effect only lasted for the first 3 days. A per 1 °C decrease from the 25th to 1st mean temperature percentile was associated with an increase of 15.6 (95% eCI: 2.4, 22.9) in YLL for non-accidental diseases, and the cumulative effects due to cold were stronger in contrast to that attributed by heat. Cold temperature had a significant impact on YLL among the subgroups, with higher YLL in cardiovascular disease, stroke, males, Han nationality, married, and those engaged in agriculture than their corresponding categories. An increasing death burden of non-accidental in Yuxi of China due to cold temperature was demonstrated, and the association was also modified by specific disease causes and individual features.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yujin Wang
- Department of Preventive Medicine, Shantou University Medical College, Shantou, 515041, Guangdong, China
| | - Zan Ding
- Department of Science and Education, Baoan Central Hospital of Shenzhen, Shenzhen, 518102, Guangdong, China
| | - Changyu Deng
- Department of Preventive Medicine, Shantou University Medical College, Shantou, 515041, Guangdong, China
| | - Pi Guo
- Department of Preventive Medicine, Shantou University Medical College, Shantou, 515041, Guangdong, China
| | - Yingbin You
- Department of Preventive Medicine, Shantou University Medical College, Shantou, 515041, Guangdong, China
| | - Liujiu Li
- Yuxi Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Yuxi, 653000, Yunnan, China
| | - Yanfang Wang
- Yuxi Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Yuxi, 653000, Yunnan, China
| | - Qingying Zhang
- Department of Preventive Medicine, Shantou University Medical College, Shantou, 515041, Guangdong, China.
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Zhang Y, Wang S, Zhang X, Hu Q, Zheng C. Association between moderately cold temperature and mortality in China. Environ Sci Pollut Res Int 2020; 27:26211-26220. [PMID: 32361971 DOI: 10.1007/s11356-020-08960-5] [Citation(s) in RCA: 8] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/15/2019] [Accepted: 04/21/2020] [Indexed: 06/11/2023]
Abstract
Ambient air temperature is a key factor affecting human health. Adverse effects of extreme weather on mortality have been well explored and expounded in numerous epidemiological studies. The relationship between moderate temperature and mortality is, however, underexplored. This study quantitatively investigated the temperature-dependent mortality burden in China. Data on daily average temperature and mortality in 15 Chinese cities during 2010-2016 were collected for this study. The association between temperature and city-specific mortality was investigated with a quasi-Poisson regression combined with a distributed lag nonlinear model across lag 0-21 days. The results were then included in a multivariate meta-analysis to derive the pooled estimates of the effect of temperature on mortality at the multi-city level. Mortality fractions attributable to cold and heat (i.e., at temperatures below and above the minimum mortality temperature (MMT)) were calculated. Additionally, temperature ranges were further divided into 1 °C intervals of ambient temperature, and the attributable fractions were calculated for each range. The MMT varied from the 71th to 93th percentiles of temperature in the 15 Chinese cities, centering at the 78th percentile at the multi-city level. In total, 12.65% of non-accidental mortality was attributable to non-optimum temperature, of which cold and hot temperatures corresponded to attributable fractions of 11.38% and 1.27%, respectively. The results of temperature stratifications suggested that moderately cold temperatures provided the highest contribution to mortality caused by temperature. Specifically, the highest attributable fractions were at 7 °C, 7 °C, 8 °C, 8 °C, 4 °C, 4 °C, 5 °C, 7 °C, 7 °C, 4 °C, 5 °C, 5 °C, 6 °C, 11 °C, and 12 °C, for Harbin, Changchun, Shenyang, Urumqi, Beijing, Tianjin, Shijiazhuang, Xining, Lanzhou, Nanjing, Shanghai, Hefei, Chengdu, Kunming, and Guangzhou, respectively. Cold temperature was responsible for a higher proportion of deaths than heat. Moderate cold temperature contributed to most of the total health burden. Finally, the cumulative total counts of deaths caused by moderate cold were the largest. Although moderate cold conferred a slightly lower relative risk than extreme cold, it was more common than extreme cold. Taken together, our results show that the effects of moderate cold temperature on health should receive more attention. Furthermore, our findings could help improve the prediction of climate change effects on human health and support the development of response strategies for the changing climate.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ying Zhang
- College of Atmospheric Sciences, Chengdu University of Information Technology, Chengdu, 610000, Sichuan, China.
| | - Shigong Wang
- College of Atmospheric Sciences, Chengdu University of Information Technology, Chengdu, 610000, Sichuan, China
- Key Laboratory for Semi-Arid Climate Change of the Ministry of Education, College of Atmospheric Sciences, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, 730000, China
| | - Xiaoling Zhang
- College of Atmospheric Sciences, Chengdu University of Information Technology, Chengdu, 610000, Sichuan, China
- Institute of Urban Meteorology, CMA, Beijing, 100089, China
| | - Qin Hu
- College of Atmospheric Sciences, Chengdu University of Information Technology, Chengdu, 610000, Sichuan, China
| | - CanJun Zheng
- National Institute for Communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, 155, Changbai Road, Changping, Beijing, 102206, China
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Sun QH, Wang WT, Wang YW, Li TT. [Estimating and projecting the acute effect of cold spells on excess mortality under climate change in Guangzhou]. Zhonghua Yu Fang Yi Xue Za Zhi 2018; 52:430-435. [PMID: 29614613 DOI: 10.3760/cma.j.issn.0253-9624.2018.04.018] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 06/08/2023]
Abstract
Objective: To estimate future excess mortality attributable to cold spells in Guangzhou, China. Methods: We collected the mortality data and metrological data from 2009-2013 of Guangzhou to calculated the association between cold spell days and non-accidental mortality with GLM model. Then we projected future daily average temperatures (2020-2039 (2020s) , 2050-2069 (2050s) , 2080-2099 (2080s) ) with 5 GCMs models and 2 RCPs (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) to identify cold spell days. The baseline period was the 1980s (1980-1999). Finally, calculated the yearly cold spells related excess death of 1980s, 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s with average daily death count of non-cold spell days, exposure-response relationship, and yearly number of cold spell days. Results: The average of daily non-accidental mortality in Guangzhou from 2009 to 2013 was 96, and the average of daily average was 22.0 ℃. Cold spell days were associated with 3.3% (95%CI: 0.4%-6.2%) increase in non-accidental mortality. In 1980s, yearly cold spells related deaths were 34 (95%CI: 4-64). In 2020s, the number will increase by 0-10; in 2050s, the number will increase by 1-9; and in 2080s, will increase by 1-9 under the RCP4.5 scenario. In 2020s, the number will increase by 0-9; in 2050s, the number will increase by 1-6; and in 2080s, will increase by 0-11 under the RCP8.5 scenario. Conclusion: The cold spells related non-accidental deaths in Guangzhou will increase in future under climate change.
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Affiliation(s)
- Q H Sun
- National Institute of Environmental Health, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 100021, China
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Guo Y, Ma Y, Zhang Y, Huang S, Wu Y, Yu S, Zou F, Cheng J. Time series analysis of ambient air pollution effects on daily mortality. Environ Sci Pollut Res Int 2017; 24:20261-20272. [PMID: 28702913 DOI: 10.1007/s11356-017-9502-7] [Citation(s) in RCA: 24] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/25/2016] [Accepted: 06/09/2017] [Indexed: 05/22/2023]
Abstract
Although the growths of ambient pollutants have been attracting public concern, the characteristic of the associations between air pollutants and mortality remains elusive. Time series analysis with a generalized additive model was performed to estimate the associations between ambient air pollutants and mortality outcomes in Shenzhen City for the period of 2012-2014. The results showed that nitrogen dioxide (NO2)-induced excess risks (ER) of total non-accidental mortality and cardiovascular mortality were significantly increased (6.05% (95% CI 3.38%, 8.78%); 6.88% (95% CI 2.98%, 10.93%), respectively) in interquartile range (IQR) increase analysis. Also, these associations were strengthened after adjusting for other pollutants. Moreover, similar associations were estimated for sulfur dioxide (SO2), particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter of <10 μm (PM10), and total non-accidental mortality. There were significant higher ERs of associations between PM10 and mortality for men than women; while there were significant higher ERs of associations between PM10/NO2 and mortality for elders (65 or elder) than youngers (64 or younger). Season analyses showed that associations between NO2 and total non-accidental mortality were more pronounced in hot seasons than in warm seasons. Taken together, NO2 was positively associated with total non-accidental mortality and cardiovascular mortality in Shenzhen even when the concentrations were below the ambient air quality standard. Policy measures should aim at reducing residents' exposure to anthropogenic NO2 emissions.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yinsheng Guo
- Shenzhen Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Shenzhen, Guangdong, 518055, China
- Department of Occupational Health and Occupational Medicine, School of Public Health and Tropical Medicine, Southern Medical University, Guangzhou, Guangdong Province, 510515, China
| | - Yue Ma
- Shenzhen Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Shenzhen, Guangdong, 518055, China
| | - Yanwei Zhang
- Shenzhen Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Shenzhen, Guangdong, 518055, China
| | - Suli Huang
- Shenzhen Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Shenzhen, Guangdong, 518055, China
| | - Yongsheng Wu
- Shenzhen Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Shenzhen, Guangdong, 518055, China
| | - Shuyuan Yu
- Shenzhen Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Shenzhen, Guangdong, 518055, China
| | - Fei Zou
- Department of Occupational Health and Occupational Medicine, School of Public Health and Tropical Medicine, Southern Medical University, Guangzhou, Guangdong Province, 510515, China.
| | - Jinquan Cheng
- Shenzhen Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Shenzhen, Guangdong, 518055, China.
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Zhu J, Zhang X, Zhang X, Dong M, Wu J, Dong Y, Chen R, Ding X, Huang C, Zhang Q, Zhou W. The burden of ambient air pollution on years of life lost in Wuxi, China, 2012-2015: A time-series study using a distributed lag non-linear model. Environ Pollut 2017; 224:689-697. [PMID: 28258859 DOI: 10.1016/j.envpol.2017.02.053] [Citation(s) in RCA: 16] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/16/2016] [Revised: 02/13/2017] [Accepted: 02/22/2017] [Indexed: 05/08/2023]
Abstract
Ambient air pollution ranks high among the risk factors that increase the global burden of disease. Previous studies focused on assessing mortality risk and were sparsely performed in populous developing countries with deteriorating environments. We conducted a time-series study to evaluate the air pollution-associated years of life lost (YLL) and mortality risk and to identify potential modifiers relating to the season and demographic characteristics. Using linear (for YLL) and Poisson (for mortality) regression models and controlling for time-varying factors, we found that an interquartile range (IQR) increase in a three-day average cumulative (lag 0-2 day) concentrations of PM2.5, PM10, NO2 and SO2 corresponded to increases in YLL of 12.09 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 2.98-21.20), 13.69 (95% CI: 3.32-24.07), 26.95 (95% CI: 13.99-39.91) and 24.39 (95% CI: 8.62-40.15) years, respectively, and to percent increases in mortality of 1.34% (95% CI: 0.67-2.01%), 1.56% (95% CI: 0.80-2.33%), 3.36% (95% CI: 2.39-4.33%) and 2.39% (95% CI: 1.24-3.55%), respectively. Among the specific causes of death, cardiovascular and respiratory diseases were positively associated with gaseous pollutants (NO2 and SO2), and diabetes was positively correlated with NO2 (in terms of the mortality risk). The effects of air pollutants were more pronounced in the cool season than in the warm season. The elderly (>65 years) and females were more vulnerable to air pollution. Studying effect estimates and their modifications by using YLL to detect premature death should support implementing health risk assessments, identifying susceptible groups and guiding policy-making and resource allocation according to specific local conditions.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jingying Zhu
- Wuxi Center for Disease Control and Prevention, 499 Jincheng Road, Liangxi District, Wuxi, Jiangsu, 214023, China
| | - Xuhui Zhang
- Wuxi Center for Disease Control and Prevention, 499 Jincheng Road, Liangxi District, Wuxi, Jiangsu, 214023, China
| | - Xi Zhang
- Wuxi Center for Disease Control and Prevention, 499 Jincheng Road, Liangxi District, Wuxi, Jiangsu, 214023, China
| | - Mei Dong
- Wuxi Municipal Environmental Monitoring Center, 58 Caozhangxincun, Liangxi District, Wuxi, Jiangsu, 214025, China
| | - Jiamei Wu
- Wuxi Municipal Meteorological Monitoring Center, 8 Jianheng Road, Xishan District, Wuxi, Jiangsu, 214101, China
| | - Yunqiu Dong
- Wuxi Center for Disease Control and Prevention, 499 Jincheng Road, Liangxi District, Wuxi, Jiangsu, 214023, China
| | - Rong Chen
- Wuxi Center for Disease Control and Prevention, 499 Jincheng Road, Liangxi District, Wuxi, Jiangsu, 214023, China
| | - Xinliang Ding
- Wuxi Center for Disease Control and Prevention, 499 Jincheng Road, Liangxi District, Wuxi, Jiangsu, 214023, China
| | - Chunhua Huang
- Wuxi Center for Disease Control and Prevention, 499 Jincheng Road, Liangxi District, Wuxi, Jiangsu, 214023, China
| | - Qi Zhang
- Wuxi Center for Disease Control and Prevention, 499 Jincheng Road, Liangxi District, Wuxi, Jiangsu, 214023, China
| | - Weijie Zhou
- Wuxi Center for Disease Control and Prevention, 499 Jincheng Road, Liangxi District, Wuxi, Jiangsu, 214023, China.
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Park HY, Bae S, Hong YC. PM₁₀ exposure and non-accidental mortality in Asian populations: a meta-analysis of time-series and case-crossover studies. J Prev Med Public Health 2013; 46:10-8. [PMID: 23407325 PMCID: PMC3567321 DOI: 10.3961/jpmph.2013.46.1.10] [Citation(s) in RCA: 16] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/21/2012] [Accepted: 11/22/2012] [Indexed: 11/09/2022] Open
Abstract
Objectives We investigated the association between particulate matter less than 10 µm in aerodynamic diameter (PM10) exposure and non-accidental mortality in Asian populations by meta-analysis, using both time-series and case-crossover analysis. Methods Among the 819 published studies searched from PubMed and EMBASE using key words related to PM10 exposure and non-accidental mortality in Asian countries, 8 time-series and 4 case-crossover studies were selected for meta-analysis after exclusion by selection criteria. We obtained the relative risk (RR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) of non-accidental mortality per 10 µg/m3 increase of daily PM10 from each study. We used Q statistics to test the heterogeneity of the results among the different studies and evaluated for publication bias using Begg funnel plot and Egger test. Results Testing for heterogeneity showed significance (p<0.001); thus, we applied a random-effects model. RR (95% CI) per 10 µg/m3 increase of daily PM10 for both the time-series and case-crossover studies combined, time-series studies relative risk only, and case-crossover studies only, were 1.0047 (1.0033 to 1.0062), 1.0057 (1.0029 to 1.0086), and 1.0027 (1.0010 to 1.0043), respectively. The non-significant Egger test suggested that this analysis was not likely to have a publication bias. Conclusions We found a significant positive association between PM10 exposure and non-accidental mortality among Asian populations. Continued investigations are encouraged to contribute to the health impact assessment and public health management of air pollution in Asian countries.
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Affiliation(s)
- Hye Yin Park
- Department of Preventive Medicine, Seoul National University College of Medicine, Seoul, Korea
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