Developing and Validating Models to Predict Progression to Proliferative Diabetic Retinopathy

Purpose

To develop models for progression of nonproliferative diabetic retinopathy (NPDR) to proliferative diabetic retinopathy (PDR) and determine if incorporating updated information improves model performance.

Design

Retrospective cohort study.

Participants

Electronic health record (EHR) data from a tertiary academic center, University of California San Francisco (UCSF), and a safety-net hospital, Zuckerberg San Francisco General (ZSFG) Hospital were used to identify patients with a diagnosis of NPDR, age ≥ 18 years, a diagnosis of type 1 or 2 diabetes mellitus, ≥ 6 months of ophthalmology follow-up, and no prior diagnosis of PDR before the index date (date of first NPDR diagnosis in the EHR).

Methods

Four survival models were developed: Cox proportional hazards, Cox with backward selection, Cox with LASSO regression and Random Survival Forest. For each model, three variable sets were compared to determine the impact of including updated clinical information: Static₀ (data up to the index date), Static_6m (data updated 6 months after the index date), and Dynamic (data in Static₀ plus data change during the 6-month period). The UCSF data were split into 80% training and 20% testing (internal validation). The ZSFG data were used for external validation. Model performance was evaluated by the Harrell's concordance index (C-Index).

Main Outcome Measures

Time to PDR.

Results

The UCSF cohort included 1130 patients and 92 (8.1%) patients progressed to PDR. The ZSFG cohort included 687 patients and 30 (4.4%) patients progressed to PDR. All models performed similarly (C-indices ∼ 0.70) in internal validation. The random survival forest with Static_6m set performed best in external validation (C-index 0.76). Insurance and age were selected or ranked as highly important by all models. Other key predictors were NPDR severity, diabetic neuropathy, number of strokes, mean Hemoglobin A1c, and number of hospital admissions.

Conclusions

Our models for progression of NPDR to PDR achieved acceptable predictive performance and validated well in an external setting. Updating the baseline variables with new clinical information did not consistently improve the predictive performance.

Financial Disclosures

Proprietary or commercial disclosure may be found after the references.

Artificial intelligence to predict outcomes of head and neck radiotherapy

Head and neck radiotherapy induces important toxicity, and its efficacy and tolerance vary widely across patients. Advancements in radiotherapy delivery techniques, along with the increased quality and frequency of image guidance, offer a unique opportunity to individualize radiotherapy based on imaging biomarkers, with the aim of improving radiation efficacy while reducing its toxicity. Various artificial intelligence models integrating clinical data and radiomics have shown encouraging results for toxicity and cancer control outcomes prediction in head and neck cancer radiotherapy. Clinical implementation of these models could lead to individualized risk-based therapeutic decision making, but the reliability of the current studies is limited. Understanding, validating and expanding these models to larger multi-institutional data sets and testing them in the context of clinical trials is needed to ensure safe clinical implementation. This review summarizes the current state of the art of machine learning models for prediction of head and neck cancer radiotherapy outcomes.

Discovery of tumor immune infiltration-related snoRNAs for predicting tumor immune microenvironment status and prognosis in lung adenocarcinoma

Lung adenocarcinoma (LUAD) has a high mortality rate and is difficult to diagnose and treat in its early stage. Previous studies have demonstrated that small nucleolar RNAs (snoRNAs) play a critical role in tumor immune infiltration and the development of a variety of solid tumors. However, there have been no studies on the correlation between tumor-infiltrating immune-related snoRNAs (TIISRs) and LUAD. In this study, we filtered six immune-related snoRNAs based on the tissue specificity index (TSI) and expression profile of all snoRNAs between all LUAD cell lines from the Cancer Cell Line Encyclopedia and 21 types of immune cells from the Gene Expression Omnibus database. Further, we performed real-time quantitative polymerase chain reaction (RT-qPCR) to validate the expression status of these snoRNAs on peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMCs) and lung cancer cell lines. Next, we developed a TIISR signature based on the expression profiles of snoRNAs from 479 LUAD patients filtered by the random survival forest algorithm. We then analyzed the value of this TIISR signature (TIISR risk score) for assessing tumor immune infiltration, immune checkpoint inhibitor (ICI) treatment response, and the prognosis of LUAD between groups with high and low TIISR risk score. Further, we found that the TIISR risk score groups showed significant differences in biological characteristics and that the risk score could be used to assess the level of tumor immune cell infiltration, thereby predicting prognosis and responsiveness to immunotherapy in LUAD patients.